[Closed] Your crystal ball, look 5 years ahead

Very few faces we recognise in parliament given by the increased levels of political interest being generated. A grass roots campaign for UK membership of the EU gathering momentum.

I dunno, my mates just moved to NZ, I'm wondering if my family's future might like be out there tbh

Where will we be in 5 years? My guess:

Scotland independent and in the EU
England, Wales and NI in the EEA

I think your time frame is too short. I don't think the UK can leave the EU all that quickly and I'm not sure how quickly a country can join the EU. I think there may well be a second ref in scotland but surely that needs to be decision based on what the UK's exit from the EU eventually consists of - we could leave on a deal that barely changes anything - we could leave on a deal that ****s the EU so much there'd not be much motivation to for anyone to join.

I think your time frame is too short

I was being optimistic 😉

No cricket on the green, band in bandstand playing Elgar, or spitfires doing a fly past...?

I guess I'm still at the denial stage. I think it's possible that the whole leave project might get abandoned in the next few weeks and months, when enough people wake to to what a gigantic bit of a mess it is going to be.

I'm wondering about a move to Ireland or Scotland. I'm a solicitor in a small rural practice in mid Wales and I will find it difficult to look most of my leave voting clients in the eye going forward - I've looked into qualifying in Scotland which seems to the country that I thought mine, Wales, was but obviously isn't.

I was being optimistic

Good luck with that 😆

Ah, denial, that the feeling.

I dunno, my mates just moved to NZ, I'm wondering if my family's future might like be out there tbh

You won't be alone!
Having just sold my house, I'll now looking for the perfect pile of stones to rebuild somewhere in the mountains, but I think Europe will be getting increasingly unstable- scarily so- and in five years may be well and truly ****ed!

Sorry maccruiskeen, we are out in 2y unless someone rows back pretty damn quick. That's simply the way the laws are written.

After today's shenanigans, I expect the Labour Party to have torn itself apart.

I'm wondering about a move to Ireland or Scotland. I'm a solicitor in a small rural practice in mid Wales and I will find it difficult to look most of my leave voting in the eye going forward

You'll find barely find a difference between rural wales and rural scotland in that respect - you look at the [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results ]map[/url] and its all yellow but outside of the cities theres a negligible difference.

In five years time I'll be in the bread queue with a wheelbarrow full of £20 notes.

Follow your dreams...start now and continue for the rest of your lives.

Corbyn will be gone soon (unfortunately) blairites will take back control of the labour party and Ernies socialist utopia will lay shattered on the fact that most of the leave voters did so through racism and ignorance.

The country is about to swing further to the right, god help us all.

There will be a brain drain, and Jamba will sneak out with them rather than face the hardship of the change he so vociferously argued for.

My realistic thoughts:

Either:

1) in EEA, with all of the costs, market access, but none of the benefits,
2) totally out out, with no market access, but none of the financial cost, trade benefits or social / liberal / environmental benefits
3) MPs will have stepped up to the job they're supposed to do and killed off the Brexit movement.

If 1) we will have just cut off one testicle. We'll be the laughing stock of the EU having bunged a good deal for a terrible deal - and there'll be a disappointed and angry groundswell against the main parties. Upside is that we might just retain some of the businesses that actually help generate wealth in this country

If 2), then we will have complete castration using the two bricks method. No social / liberal moderation, a rampant right wing who are already being very menacing on the streets and deterioration in equality and standing for women, minorities, LGBT community and institutional wilful ignorance as a National virtue. Scotland likely to be independent. Northern Ireland is difficult to call - recognising that much of the North voted Remain and wants to go south is anathema for the Tory and Unionist party, denying the clear will of the people risks fuelling a renewal of republican violence. Petrol and diesel will be £2.00 per litre because of £/$ parity. Oh, and our big employers will have moved certain operations to Ireland (corporate offices) with manufacturing ops closed or relocated to Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, or our newest and fiercest competitor, an independent and resurgent Scotland. Our best talent, artistic community any people with the skills and financial means will have left - a return to 70s values and the 70s brain drain.

If 3), we've all had a very, very lucky wake up call. Politicians will need to tackle the root cause of the deep divisions in society, and very sad to say - make sure FPTP voting is retained to keep a rampant neo-Nazi movement out of Westminster

ETA - re-reading that makes "Project Fear" seem quite lightweight... 🙁

Even if it's theoretically possible, there is no mandate for an EEA agreement. It is not in any manifesto, no-one voted for it, and the bigoted wing of the brexiteers won't accept it. Plus, the EU won't be minded to be generous, many of them can't afford to be seen to be appeasing the UK.

I think in England we will see a further advance of the Dunning Kruger effect & it will become more like the US. The stupids will shape the national psyche and will entirely fail to realise that the ensuing catastrophe is actually all of their own making.

Boris will have negotiate EU lite, I can't believe it's not the EU. Nothing at all has changed other than I have less hair.

I think the exit vote might get over-ruled in parliament, we go back to the EU with out tail between our legs but still don't appreciate what a lucky escape we've had. Maybe it will trigger change do the better.

Or, it triggers the collapse of the EU, with a massive swing to the far right and I'll cash in my chips and run away to Canada.

Emissary Tony Blair has just finished negotiate a superb deal with the EU who have kowtowed to his peerless diplomacy

On a wave of optimism he is voted back into to power by a grateful nation

Junkyard - lazarus

Emissary Tony Blair has just finished negotiate a superb deal with the EU who have kowtowed to his peerless diplomacy

On a wave of optimism he is voted back into to power by a grateful nation

I'll be sitting pretty. My Maypole cum burning cross business will have flourished.

Blair is not too old, that's for sure...

And spurious wars in hot countries, populated by brown people with a different religion, might be where the zeitgeist is at in 5 years
😐

Westminster and Downing St will become symbolic as the dictatorships of the great free press take over the mindset of the population. Oh do apologise that's already happened.

1) in EEA, with all of the costs, market access, but none of the benefits,
2) totally out out, with no market access, but none of the financial cost, trade benefits or social / liberal / environmental benefits
3) MPs will have stepped up to the job they're supposed to do and killed off the Brexit movement.

I think something close to 1's the most likely situation. Maybe a token limitation on non-qualified immigration (something like no degree - no entry) but that's about it.

Can the next PM invoke article 50 on his own, or does he have to ask Parliament? I wonder if putting it to the MPs as a free vote might not be a face-saving him at least. (And I'm saying "he" and "him" as the most likely candidates are male, not due to any #everydaysexism!)

May may disagree...

I think something close to 1's the most likely situation. Maybe a token limitation on non-qualified immigration (something like no degree - no entry) but that's about it.

The UK does not need more degree educated labourers.

The UK does not need more degree educated labourers.

I know, but you have to pander to your voters however stupid they may be, and some kind of points system is the easiest way to go about it.

Sorry maccruiskeen, we are out in 2y unless someone rows back pretty damn quick. That's simply the way the laws are written

No, it's not. It's 2 years from Article 50 being invoked which is only when the UK PM has formally instructed the EU president/council that we intend to leave. Lawyers have been discussing whether Cameron turning up at the meeting on Tuesday and talking about it would count, as the assumption (it's never happened before) was that it would mean in writing so it's clear and unequivocal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36632579

I assume no PM will invoke Article 50 until we've tried to negotiate some post-exit treaties/arrangements. And we don't have enough experienced trade negotiators in the civil service. And then there's all the thousands of intertwined laws and regulations that need to be unpicked.

In 5 years time - I reckon we'll still be part of the EU. Governments will have tried and failed to fill the void and eventually, at the cost of his or her job, someone will stand up and say "no, sorry, we're staying".

I think (hope) it won't look too different from pre-referendum. I think the negotiations will end up with an agreement that doesn't look too different. We'll have a sort of halfway house 'Devo max' solution that helps keep the EU together and makes it look like we've not had it all our own way. I think we'll have a different trade agreement - freedom to go out into the ROW to negotiate our own deals but will have to accept freedom of movement. The Europe linked part of the London finance centre might take a hit as that transfers to Frankfurt or Paris (obviously inevitable), but that is a very small proportion of our whole financial services sector. We might have seen a slight decline in some industries/ business sectors, but an increase in others.

Let's not underestimate the hit this has been to the EU. It us not the case they can cut us loose and carry on unaffected. I wouldn't go as far to say that they need us more than we need them but it is a be a severe shock/loss to them.

Go on, I'm an optimist. Wounds are sore now, so now is not the time for anyone to make rash decisions, but the process will take years and over that time a sence of normality and stability will return, wounds and rifts will heal, and one day we'll wake up and the deal would have been done and dusted and we'll all get on with it. We'll continue to work as closely with the EU on all fronts and there is no reason for things to change significantly. I'm not so sure life will be significantly better for decades, but I don't think they'll be much worse, which is why I voted remain - what's the point of causing all this disruption for something that will, in the end, be minor-ish tweak to what we have now.

I assume no PM will invoke Article 50 until we've tried to negotiate some post-exit treaties/arrangements

That's a huge assumption - and almost certainly wrong. Why would the rest of the EU negotiate before knowing if it's all a bluff?

Exactly as mogrim says. Plus the EU is on the point of stating that A50 has been triggered, as soon as cameron meets them next week. The best we could possibly hope for is a few months grace while the next PM takes over, and that is by no means certain. Then the 2y clock will have to start ticking, and we are not going to be holding any of the high cards in the time-limited negotiation. The process was never designed to be implemented.

That's a huge assumption - and almost certainly wrong. Why would the rest of the EU negotiate before knowing if it's all a bluff?

Erm, if you read what you quoted you'd see I said [b]tried[/b] to negotiate.

Which is why I finished with

In 5 years time - I reckon we'll still be part of the EU...

I think we're violently agreeing? Our government/PM will try to drag it's feet before enacting A50 as that is driving off the cliff, having the referendum was just parking up with a sea view.

Plus the EU is on the point of stating that A50 has been triggered, as soon as cameron meets them next week

Report on R4 within last half hour says that's categorically NOT the case, the council has said it will not take Cameron's attendance as invoking A50.

Currently looking at me being in the uk in 5 years as 50:50.
Turns out i qualify for nz easily

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England will have started a war with someone, preferably brown and in a distant land, and then be struggling because the distant brown people are getting sold sophisticated weapons by England's big friend and ally across the Atlantic.

Right wing militarism will be the national ethos, and there will be talk of conscription because of the reluctance of the younger generation to join up.

The Labour party will be merged with the Conservatives, and only official parties are allowed to engage in political action. There are no other political parties.

The calendar is restarted at 1984 each year.

Ironic innit; I've only skim read the thread but I don't think anyone has mentioned the effect on Europe.
Inward looking and insular we certainly are....

If you were pushed out of a moving car would your first thought be for the other occupants still safely strapped in?

The potential domino effect has been mentioned in some of the many other threads.

We'll be part of the EU. Either there will have been a second referendum, perhaps asking us, wink wink, whether we accept the proposed terms of Brexit. Or there will have been massive civil uproar in the cities that made the poll tax riots look like a picnic. Or a vote in Parliament as David Lammy proposed. So, in five years we'll be in the EU but our neighbours and allies will still be looking at us like we're prats.

If you were pushed out of a moving car would your first thought be for the other occupants still safely strapped in?

No, but I'd be looking out for the juggernaut bearing down on me.
You prove my point perfectly! We weren't pushed; we jumped!

No, I didn't, and neither did 48% of the people who voted. Looks like this thread isn't the only part of the debate you've skimmed through.

I know what I'm being forced to give up, I still haven't been told what's replacing it and why that's better.

But like I said above I don't think we'll actually go through with it.

BBC political correspondent Iain Watson says the petition has attracted a lot of attention but has zero chance of being enacted, because it is asking for retrospective legislation.
Our correspondent says some referendums do have thresholds but those clauses must be inserted in legislation before the vote so everyone is clear about the rules.
You can't simply invent new hurdles if you are on the losing side, our correspondent says.

View from the Beeb, I think we'll be out and annoying the EU by doing surprisingly well.

No, I didn't, and neither did 48% of the people who voted.

We, as a nation, jumped. No one is still safely strapped in...

Why would the rest of the EU negotiate before knowing if it's all a bluff?

Even JHJ has not claimed that

I think we'll be out and annoying the EU by doing surprisingly well

You think we dont mean it we had a referendum and a PM reigned just to fool the EU?

No. I'm saying that the EU will start negotiating when article 50 is invoked, not before. Any talk by (pro-brexit) politicians that "informal negotiations" will take place beforehand is very optimistic. Soundings, maybe, but nothing real.