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I can see Israel using a small scale “tactical” nuke on the mountain bunker complex
Assuming that Israel has a suitable delivery system to get a nuclear payload deep underground, then they wouldn't use it in this case
They'll rely on keeping doors and ventilation systems out of action with conventional bombing because:
1) any nuclear action is a massive escalation and
2) everyone in the region will want one, which effectively removes their trump card by virtue of MAD
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/netanyahu-son-wedding-comments-israel-backlash
This is what happens when a psychopath who is responsible for war crimes and genocide tries to do empathy, they of course get it completely wrong and prove that they only care about themselves.
"It really reminds me of the British people during the blitz. We are going through a blitz"
“There are people who were killed, families who grieved loved ones, I really appreciate that"
Each of us bears a personal cost, and my family has not been exempt,”
“This is the second time that my son Avner has cancelled a wedding due to missile threats. It is a personal cost for his fiancee as well, and I must say that my dear wife is a hero, and she bears a personal cost.”
The SECOND time ! No wonder he thinks his dear wife is a hero.
From The Graun this morning:
-----
Regime change in Iran would be “unacceptable” and the assassination of the country’s supreme leader would “open the Pandora’s box, the Kremlin spokesperson has said, a day after the Israeli defence minister said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Sky News that Russia would react “very negatively” if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. “The situation is extremely tense and is dangerous not only for the region but globally,” Mr Peskov said in an interview at the Constantine Palace in Saint Petersburg.
A further expansion of the actors involved would “lead only to another circle of confrontation and escalation of tension in the region,” he added.
-----
On a related note, didn't the plot of Threads involve some sort of confrontation over Iran? Spooky prediction.
This is well worth reading from start to finish. It's a summary of an interview with a former Mossad head. The reason it's worth reading isn't because I expect anyone to agree with his viewpoint, it's because it's important to understand how Israel thinks this might play out.
https://twitter.com/udschachter/status/1935861500431794644
Regime change in Iran would be “unacceptable” and the assassination of the country’s supreme leader would “open the Pandora’s box, the Kremlin spokesperson has said, a day after the Israeli defence minister said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist”.
I doubt the Russians are wrong about opening a Pandoras Box. Just the same as every other time the west has had a go at regime change, it’ll surely go really, really well!
Isn't the general consensus among people who know about such things that it would unleash the usual chaos and carnage but ultimately you’d end up with the military dictatorship, having just swapped the clerics for a junta?
I'm assuming the point that the Russians were making is that taking out a leader you hate with a well targeted bomb/missile does rather leave you open for an identical response.
I'm assuming the point that the Russians were making is that taking out a leader you hate with a well targeted bomb/missile does rather leave you open for an identical response
Exactly. It's a "gentleman's" agreement that countries don't try to assassinate other countries' leaders for exactly this reason. (c.f. Plausible deniability.)
AI says Israel is justified in it's strikes against Iran, even though the Google based AIs seems to have an anti-Israel bias :
And Israel is also right in its claims over land vs Palastine:
The cognitive dissonance really is pretty spectacular, isn’t it?
Accusing others of ‘crossing every moral line’ while you’re actively involved in a genocide that has already killed nearly 60,000 and left an entire population on the verge of starvation?
As my gran used to say “his face’d stand clogging”
The cognitive dissonance really is pretty spectacular, isn’t it?
Accusing others of ‘crossing every moral line’ while you’re actively involved in a genocide that has already killed nearly 60,000 and left an entire population on the verge of starvation?
As my gran used to say “his face’d stand clogging”
It just highlights the fact that there is a certain population of Israel that considers themselves to be a superior race of humans.
We’ve heard that before somewhere……. 🤔
An interesting analysis
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/21/israel-iran-war-outcome-us-analysis
So Trump has now confirmed that the United States has attacked Iran, the Iranian response will be interesting.
I can't see any personal benefits for Trump and I don't know what he thinks it will gain him, especially if this results in American deaths.
WTAF...
Trying to decide whether to visit Xitter to revisit some of the "voting for Trump as he'll keep us out of these endless wars....." MAGA types
So, who are the Israelis going to attack next in self defence ?
Interesting stuff
I can't see any personal benefits for Trump and I don't know what he thinks it will gain him, especially if this results in American deaths
+1
I think that you've got to ask to what end
Diplomacy was still an option. Iran's offensive options weren't great before the bombing as Philip H. Gordon, national security adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris, wrote in the New York Times on the 17th
With much of its top military leadership eliminated, air defenses devastated, missile production and delivery systems taken out and regional proxies largely disabled, escalating or engaging in a long war against Israel will not turn out well for Tehran. To race to produce a nuclear weapon — perhaps tempting as a last resort to restore deterrence — would very likely bring the United States directly into the conflict, including with its bunker-busting bombs that could destroy Iran’s best-protected underground uranium enrichment site. Attacking Iran’s neighbors’ oil production facilities or exports would reverse the recent thaw in regional relations and could invite military retaliation by leaders long eager to get rid of the Iranian regime. Launching cyber- or terrorist attacks on Israeli or U.S. targets could cause significant pain and damage, but would be unlikely to undermine either nation’s resolve and could do the opposite. (my emphasis)
On Tuesday (17th) President Trump publicly disagreed with his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, when she told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in March that Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon.
TG (March) “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.” https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/trump-gabbard-comments-on-iran-nuclear-capability/
DJT (June) “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having one.”
She then attributed her March statement to media taking it out of context
I'll leave you, the jury, to decide the facts and necessity of the air strike, which historically tends to harden the resolve of the bombed nation. It's also a huge departure from Trump, man of peace, because you can't strike a nation in this manner and expect to walk away after one strike
"My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier" (DJT, January 2025)
PS I fail to see how Trump could come to the conclusive battle damage assessment of "totally obliterated" on publicly announcing the strike. That assessment will take days, if not weeks.
I can see that the WW3 and Trump threads will become a cross-posted mess
This is an excellent article if the paywall isn't an issue :
https://www.ft.com/content/8f6d3c9c-9d1f-4f17-98e6-3e75d077df6b
According to that analysis Trump has taken an enormous gamble which completely depends on how the Iranian regime reacts.
And imo how they react is likely to be dependant on how big the regime sees the existential threat. They might decide that as a regime they have nothing to lose and go down fighting. If they target American bases/assets in the region (and the US has prepared for that) they will likely cause American deaths.
Trump responding with full all-out war would massively damage his presidency as would the price of oil skyrocketing.
In contrast no response from the Iranian regime would be chalked up as a big win for Trump although I doubt that it would be seen as a particularly impressive legacy of his presidency. It certainly won't mean that the Middle East has entered a new era of peace, that won't happen and Israel will make certain that it won't happen.
I find myself wondering more and more whether Trump is primarily driven by a need to satisfy a serious gambling addiction.
Trump responding with full all-out war would massively damage his presidency
This is the gamble that the Iranian regime could take, that neither Trump nor the United States has the stomach for a new Middle East war so retaliation would be worth as it would minimise the risks of future US attacks.
Trump did not seek the approval of Congress for the US to engage in military action, that could cause him problems although presumably less so if no further action is taken.
Well the obvious has happened. I hope we are not involved
The BBC understands there was no UK involvement in the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities
if things escalate further it would become increasingly harder not to be involved though
The US made it very clear they wouldn't support the UK/EU militarily only a few months ago, so why would the powers at be even consider any support whatsoever for the US?
I fail to see how Trump could come to the conclusive battle damage assessment of "totally obliterated" on publicly announcing the strike. That assessment will take days, if not weeks.
Trump's conclusions have absolutely no relevance to the official assessments. They used the biggest and bestest bombs in the world ever, didn't you know? Job done.
If this later turns out to be different, just change the facts, simple. It's still FACT. Everything else is fake news (or someone else's fault).
Id be surprised if the mission was the success Trump declared. The response could be nasty if not.
If this later turns out to be different, just change the facts, simple. It's still FACT. Everything else is fake news (or someone else's fault)
100% this, the cult will believe whatever he tells them
i must admit to being surprised that trump's done netenyahu's bidding so completely
I don’t know which is more nauseating, Netenyahu blowing smoke up Trumps arse or Pete Hegseth banging on about ‘Great American Warriors’ and this somehow being for the ‘glory of god’?
Holy hand grenade of Antioch anyone?
Hegseth makes more sense when he’s drunk.
Warriors is is not a term befitting the air crew pressing a button whilst sat in relative safety at 40,000 feet
Trump did not seek the approval of Congress for the US to engage in military action, that could cause him problems although presumably less so if no further action is taken.
He's been impeached twice and that didn't seem to cause him any problems, I can't imagine a few people in Congress being a bit unhappy is going to have the slightest effect on him.
He really is thick as shit, just a puppet being played by Netanyahu.
I can't imagine a few people in Congress being a bit unhappy is going to have the slightest effect on him.
No, not a few people a bit unhappy. All of the Democrats and some Republicans strongly opposed might though.
I guess it depends on how Iran responds and how the situation then pans out. A full direct war with Iran similar to the Iraq War plus oil prices going through the roof might make Congress less keen to back another foreign war.
On the other hand if yesterday was the limit of United States involvement in the Israeli orchestrated war then no doubt it won't cause Trump any problems with Congress.
Personally I don't think that the Iranian regime can afford to ignore what the United States has done, it will simply invite further attacks if they do so. Nor can the United States afford to be drawn into another pointless and costly war.
If the United States after years of a costly war had to give up the ghost in Afghanistan, one of the poorest and weakest nation on earth, then I can't imagine that they might fare any better in Iran.
Despite Trump and Hegseth claiming the underground nuclear facility has been obliterated/destroyed, I am a tad sceptical to believe any of them being even half truth. These are the same people who have blatantly lied when a mountain of evidence says differently ..
So, yes the USA dropped big bombs that made a huge display. But .. the Iranians designed and built the underground facility to withstand that type of attack. And, would they really put the facility directly under the well advertised entrances at the top?
My thoughts are, the USA probably destroyed the entrances the Iranians wanted them to know about, but there are other entrances intact, and the actual facility is intact too. That said - the Iranians have already said they had moved all the important stuff to elsewhere before the USA bombed it - my thoughts are they moved it to their real secret underground facility.
If they “didn’t” have a nuclear weapon program before then they sure as hell will be attempting to bodge one together now, would the U.S. bomb such a compound if they had knowledge that the Iranian regime possessed a working weapon?………..I doubt it.
A good editorial in the Guardian :
Mr Netanyahu lured him into this attack and may lead him into more, paying gushing tribute to a history-making president and thanking him on behalf of “the forces of civilisation”.
In rejecting diplomacy and choosing war, not only in breach of international law but at the behest of a country pursuing annihilation in Gaza, the US has delivered a resounding blow to the architecture of global affairs.
You have to hand it to Benjamin Netanyahu he really is brilliant operator. All accusations of genocide go out the window as Western governments rally behind him and support his totally illegal and unprovoked attack on a neighbour.
While he quite openly starves civilians, including women and children, he feels able to step up and claim to speak on behalf of “the forces of civilisation”.
If that script had been written a few years ago it would have been dismissed as fanciful nonsense.
Meanwhile the UK government decides to classify as "terrorists" hotheads who stage a publicity stunt to highlight UK complicity with a genocidal warmongering regime.
If they “didn’t” have a nuclear weapon program before then they sure as hell will be attempting to bodge one together now,
At Netanyahu's bidding, Trump cancelled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the "Iran Nuclear Deal") set up by Obama in 2015 which monitored Iran's nuclear programme and which they were actually complying with (in exchange for reduced sanctions).
So since then, no-one has had any idea what they're doing.
First Netanyahu said "oh it's all lies, the programme isn't working", then because it was set up by Obama and Trump wanted to burn everything connected with him, he cancelled the deal and now BN has said "oh look, Iran has / will have very soon a nuclear weapon, can you come and bomb it for us?"
Nor can the United States afford to be drawn into another pointless and costly war.
The US economy runs on war. Even when they lose, which they usually manage to do.
Can't believe it, but I actually agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene on something 🤣 I suppose even a broken **** is still right twice a day...
In a post on X, Greene said:
“Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war. There would not be bombs falling on the people of Israel if Netanyahu had not dropped bombs on the people of Iran first. Israel is a nuclear armed nation. This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.”
Can't believe it, but I actually agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene on something 🤣 I suppose even a broken **** is still right twice a day...
She's absolutely right. Even typing that makes me feel dirty, and not in a good way.
Ahh late to the war 🙂
Anyway can’t beat a bit of Frankie
Looking at the picture up there of trump giving his obliterated speak, it looks me like Vance is looking at trump thinking ,this guy's a ****ing idiot.
This is a really excellent, although short, analysis, imo. Well worth a read.
https://archive.is/2025.06.22-155007/https://www.ft.com/content/c6894992-5366-4f30-a3ff-d3e837a7c8e6
I don't understand how that ^^ link works fine until I post it on here. Anyway here's the two most interesting paragraphs. It suggests that Trump is in fact currently in a very weak position.....
Whatever happens next, it is worth recalling how Trump got here. Ten days ago, Benjamin Netanyahu torpedoed Trump’s nuclear negotiations with Iran with a series of devastating missile strikes. Israel’s prime minister said that Iran was weaponising its nuclear programme and posed an existential threat. Most others, including the US intelligence community, do not share Netanyahu’s diagnosis. Having his desired deal scuppered by Israel’s move, Trump quickly associated himself with it. He demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and said that he could take out the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, at any point. Iran did not submit to Trump’s demand. His de facto declaration of war on Saturday night was the outcome.
It also bears stressing that nobody, including Trump, knows what will happen next. It is easy to start a war, especially if you command the most powerful military on Earth. But wars only end when one side gives up. That age-old warning about the fog of war is particularly relevant to today’s Middle East, in which there are often more than two warring parties. The enemy of your enemy can turn out also to be your enemy. Having once been lectured by a younger Netanyahu, Bill Clinton said to an aide, “Who’s the ****ing superpower here?” Trump’s brief televised address following the strikes was meant to showcase his command of the situation. In reality, Netanyahu has been dictating events. But even he cannot predict how Iran will respond.
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes and stands back to open the popcorn...
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes and stands back to open the popcorn...
you could call it some kind of "missile crisis" maybe?
This has really put Putin in a pickle I reckon. The Iranians will be wanting some kind of reciprocal support after their supplying all those Shithead drones to fire at the Ukrainians, but then that'll divert resources from Ukraine and will mightily piss off Trump if they are at all implicated in attacking US assets, maybe to the extent that'd open the weapons floodgates to Kiev.
What a time to be a genocidal war criminal!
I wonder how likely it will be that Putin hands the Iranians a few nukes
Think it's more likely the Iranians would get a bomb from North Korea rather than the Russians. Even then though would they use it? MAD still applies, if they were to drop a nuke on Tel Aviv then they'd also be signing the death warrant for the tens of millions living in every Iranian city. The Israelis however need to show some restraint to avoid the Iranian govt deciding they have nothing left to lose. Netanyahu looks like he's going the other way though.
PS. Where is the Iranian air force? Has it been destroyed or have they scapered to somewhere the Israelis can't reach them?
Iran air force is obsolete (includes old f14s!), and Israel knocked out much of their air defence capability. So they'd be flying largely unsupported against vastly superior planes and weapons, and larger numbers of aircraft too. Israel gained air superiority quite quickly, and as an enabler for further actions/strikes.
I think it would be very difficult for a Iranian ally to deliver nuclear weapons. I don't think the US strikes killed off Iranian capability, nor the stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The Israelis however need to show some restraint to avoid the Iranian govt deciding they have nothing left to lose.
Bibi and Trump are off the reservation with this if I'm honest. I'm struggling to see the tactical and strategic benefit of this, even if Iran come back to the table as Starmer hopes, this is the sort of thing that will 'keep' and come back to bite everyone later.
Anyone catch the chap arrested for espionage in Cyprus? On behalf of guess who...
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
No point targeting US bases whilst they are on high alert. And probably best not to warn them first too.
Trump has just thanked Iran . Apparently it's all over and we can thank him for world peace.
Yup, the "12 Day War" could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, thanks to Trump.
I hope he has written his acceptance speech for his big beautiful Nobel Peace Prize
Did they tell Iran this ?
The weirdest part of WW3 is the Twittering/x/truth social side messaging of it.
ENDED
How? With the same positivity as he reported the initial US bombing
Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.
Which he later backed up on Truth Social, when challenged, that only "Fake News" would say otherwise.
Let's hope that this is ended, but I have a feeling that Iran will want to reconstitute its proxies and its nuclear facilities and an "end" will give it the necessary breathing space.
Use of the word respectful in block capitals. Sigh
Was this all just some weird performative dance to give Netanyahu a chance to avoid scrutiny on the Palestinian genocide and Trump another go at the peace prize?
How many civilians on all sides have had to die while those two ****s play silly buggers?
God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
I was surprised that Donald Trump did not to include "GOD BLESS ME!"
He is clearly too humble to accept any credit for new global peace which his presidency has ushered.
Israel has announced that it is accepting Trump's ceasefire but Iran has rejected the suggestion that there will be a ceasefire. Although they have said that they will stop retaliating when Israel stops attacking them.
This is probably the real reason for Trump's ceasefire announcement. Israeli casualties might be low because of highly effective air raid warning and shelters but the physical damage that Iranian missiles have inflicted on them is significant.
The Washington Post's claims that Israel is running low on Arrow 3 interceptors is probably genuine too
Iran: Ceasefire? What ceasefire. (Launches attack on US base in Qatar)
Here's a good justification for a regime change in Iran, nearly as bad as using children to clear mine fields :
Iran: Ceasefire? What ceasefire. (Launches attack on US base in Qatar)
Erm... wasn't that before the ceasefire announcement?
Anyway, stupid as it seems, the attack on the US base is probably what allowed the whole situation to calm down. Now Iran has saved face by attacking the US as they said they would, but it didn't do much actual harm so the US doesn't have to respond again to that. It ends the tit-for-tat stupidity (for now) and they're all free to come to a ceasefire agreement.
Quite sensible really, in an insane way. Iran's in a pickle - the US has bombed them and they're sworn to respond, but they can't actually respond properly as, y'know, WWIII (quite apart from the question of whether they're practically able to do it). What's the solution? Say "hey, USA, we're going to attack you now, can you please evacuate?" and then lob a token amount of missiles in that direction and hope no one actually gets killed.
Politically, it's all over and everyone saves face. From the outside it's utterly stupid but hey, that's how the game is played.
Trump thought he'd lucked out getting the ceasefire after making the mistake of being dragged in .. and a bit sweary now he sees the ceasefire falling apart.
The guy is a complete clown
I mean trump is clearly a very rational person who definitely won’t be upset by Isreal and Iran ignoring his unilateral decisions on ceasefires. This is definitely going to end well for all involved.
https://www.instagram.com/share/BAhQe-Hbyi?fhid=QkFoUWUtSGJ5aQ
but the physical damage that Iranian missiles have inflicted on them is significant.
Because of a shift in where they're targeted - residential areas rather than air-force bases sited away from population centres targeted in October last year. Rather than any increased effectiveness of the missiles themselves or larger numbers being aimed at Israel. In fact there's been significantly fewer missiles directed at Israel this time around; probably as a result of the Israeli air force successfully targeting Iranian launch sites.
WION news was thrown off YouTube for violating it's terms in 2022, there are probably more accurate news sources. Here's an assessment from the IISS
Because of a shift in where they're targeted - residential areas rather than air-force bases
I am not convinced that Iran has not targeted military sites and other well defended targets. Obviously the Israelis are not a source of any reliable information but even they admit that Iran has hit military targets, presumably they have to because obvious physical damage is hard to deny.
The reality is that no one can be sure of the goals and targets of either side but I remain highly sceptical of Israel's widely touted "invincibility".
And not least because Israel appears to have now thrown in the towel, after a last low jab below the belt, long before their stated aim to effect regime change has been accomplished.
If it was going that great for Israel I can't imagine for a moment why they would cease attacking Iran.
If it was going that great for Israel I can't imagine for a moment why they would cease attacking Iran.
Because they've mostly achieved limiting Iran's ability to retaliate. It's evident that Iran's airspace is more or less undefended, and it's ability to launch missiles - 500 + in a single night in October down to less than 300 over 12 days now is as a result of the IAF campaign against missile launchers.
Because they've mostly achieved limiting Iran's ability to retaliate
I imagine that the sales rooms of Chinese arms companies will be solid with Iranians in the coming weeks, with anti-aircraft missiles at the top of the shopping list.
Because they've mostly achieved limiting Iran's ability to retaliate.
That wasn't the stated aim of Israel. Destroying Iran's nuclear programme and regime change were the stated aims.
There is no evidence that they have achieved either and some evidence that they might have achieved the opposite, ie, strengthened the regime and increased the chances of Iran developing nuclear weapons
I don't necessarily expect you to accept the views of an Israeli who has PhD in history and specialises in Iranian affairs but there is this :
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/6/24/how-israel-failed-in-iran