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I said 3 months ago
US and UK action against Iranian backed Houthi rebel….Iran seizing Red Sea ship….Sunak looking for his Falklands moment…Russia getting away with Ukraine…China sitting watching….
Dunno about you but it all feels a bit WW1 dominoes build up at the mo
Now Iran are attacking Israel and the US are shooting down drones.
What are the dominoes lined up?
US, French & UK warships & jets have been shooting down Iranian drones (fired by houthis) for months now
last comment by the captain (who i know) refuses to say that, but we all know it
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeaSMKyA/
not sure this latest attack changes much
I think they’ll use guns and stuff rather than dominoes but hey, happy to proven wrong
Yep, as Frank says it's been agreed.
Iran have said on X it's over what a world we live in.
Yep, as Frank says it’s been agreed.
That has to be the quickest conspiracy theory ever!
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There appears to be some evidence that Iran tipped off the United States that they were about to launch a attack, presumably with the intention to signal that this was a limited attack and to prevent an uncontrolled escalation caused by the fog of war.
But I doubt very much that the United States reaction was "that's okay, you do whatever you think you should do".
Isn't thatexactly what diplomacy is? Biden would likely relish the opportunity (in an election year) to look ike a statesman, a safe pair of hands whilst flexing some military might. Especially given his opponent. Can see the US applying pressure to try and limit a further escalation and calm things down.
OP, google Operation Martyr Soleimani
And take a look at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-air_combat_losses_between_the_Soviet_Union_and_the_United_States
For some historical precedents. These relatively "limited" and fairly "controlled" confrontations are not all that unusual, which seems bizarre.
Yep, as Frank says it’s been agreed.
I wouldn't word it quite like this, but yeah, within some sort of acceptable* tolerances, whether that's officially agreed, or determined by back channel communications/operational precedents.
*not to us, as it looks like obvious ******** lunacy to me
The news reports the Biden has told Isreal to accept as fair retaliation and leave it be. But can they…?
If this was sort of agreed it was risky, all it needed was one missile or drone to get through and hit a civilian target. Also feels like and escalation, the stupid Israeli attack on th embassy was a third country, this is sovereign state sovereign state.
Hopefully that's it now. As for escalation, can't see Russia getting meaningfully involved, their military is already stretched and I think China has more sense.
I suppose the argument is that these 'responses' are well thought out and designed to show thier strength without escalating too far.
But doesn't that only work is both sides are sane and rational?!
Does that still apply if thier ideological and not rational. Iran is Iran, and as far as I can see the main effect of Israel bombing Gaza is to ensure there will still be a hamas or one like it in the next 10 years, so not entirely rational!