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On the one hand air travel is shafted for the foreseeable, loads of airlines will go under and plane makers will be hard pressed to sell anything at all for 5 years.
On the other hand RR is at 266p which is near as dammit the lowest it has ever been (7% off) this year.
So Shirley it can't go down any more 🙂
Whaddaya think... any other suggestions for a Friday afternoon shares flutter?
So Shirley it can’t go down any more 🙂
Many small fortunes been made out of large fortunes with this sort of thinking 🙂
Nah, don't be negative. It'll be great.
/checks what happened to the 12,000 Intu Trafford Centre shares he bought last month....
Bet what you can afford to lose.
But don't take my word for only made a profit when China bought lego land.
That's the best advice, bet only what you can afford to lose.
When Northern rock was through the floor I bet on the government stepping in (it was profitable, but had cash flow issues basically)..... Thankfully I only bet what I could afford to lose!
They went down to 68p a share after 9/11. My brother made £800 in 10 days off RR shares a few weeks ago so always worth a punt.
Airlines don't decide to buy aircraft on a whim..these are long term decisions and airlines tend to be bailed out by governments and that leads to a review of the fleet and often new orders.
The short term 3 - 5 years will be rocky for sure for RR but they also have other sectors that are not affected by COVID and are doing well and though civil aerospace is by far their biggest sector, they're not yet destitute. Also their global fleet is young and of the latest generation of technology so most efficient and cleanest engines so airlines are more likely to bring them back into service over and above the old smokers in their fleets, so when the recovery comes, it will be led by the youngest and most modern aircraft of which RR makes up a good proportion of the global wide body fleet.
I'm no financial advisor, but if you do decide to buy either be prepared to bet on short term fluctuations to make a quick buck like my brother, or buy with the intent of having them sat there as a long term investment to ride out the next few years.
That’s the best advice, bet only what you can afford to lose.
When Northern rock was through the floor I bet on the government stepping in (it was profitable, but had cash flow issues basically)….. Thankfully I only bet what I could afford to lose!
I almost bought a chunk of NR at the time, but luckily didn't. Did teach me a valuable lesson though. I just buy managed funds / trackers now....
I saw the title and thought you meant buying a car as a new bike transport vehicle. Pretty sure I've never seen one with a bike rack on the top. It would be a bit different to the T5s at the FOD!
Worth a Punt on Rolls Royce?
Probably better off on a canal TBH.
BP will be quicker to recover imo.
yep, got stacks of BP over the last couple of weeks. Alas not at the low point, but averaging 3.01 so hopefully some potential in there.
Yes.
Looks like nearly half their revenue is power systems and defence outside of Air.
Not a useless bank, must have a ton of IP.
Sounds a bit more promising than a toxic debt laden Northern Rock with close to zero IP / long term strategic value.
Sounds a bit more promising than a toxic debt laden Northern Rock with close to zero IP / long term strategic value.
Yep. Anything to do with Aerospace is nothing but long term and strategic. Always Jam tomorrow but as long as there is tomorrow they will exist. No coincidence that there are only really two aircraft manufacturers, two engine manufactures... No wonder Elon Musk decided to skirt the aviation industry and skip strait to space. It's a tough industry.
I seem to recall Bentley have seen a MASSIVE bounce back in China in the last couple of months. More than the predicted annual sales are back on offer sdo RR cars should be fine.
Airplanes is more dodgy. If you run an airline and are making a loss as most are, dio you keep draggin on with the old ones and accept 5-10% extra costs or o you buy new at 100%+ cost and if so, where do you find that money. Then again, money has never been cheaper.
Trust me. I have no investments and less than a months savings in the bank. I am an internet expert
Not sure, guessing that their main revenue is selling/leasing aircraft engines. The vibe I get is that many large corporations, and I work for one, are reconsidering ways of working and I would expect this to result in significantly less international business travel. therefore less demand.....might be better to invest in a fund that has RR investments then you have spread the risk....
My brother made £800 in 10 days off RR shares a few weeks ago so always worth a punt.
Which, when you think about it, means that someone else lost £800 in 10 days. I'm not a financial advisor, but this day trading idea of making a quick return off short-term fluctuations is a great way to fritter away your money. You're basically gambling on random fluctuations, so, as above, only gamble with money you can afford to lose.
RR cars should be fine.
Nothing at all to do with the RR the OP is talking about. Buy BMW shares for your scenario.
I looked into trading, all be it spreadbetting, and came across a couple of very usfull points.
You only want to risk 1-2% of your fund in any one day, commission will be about £10-20 a trade. So you need to have a fund where 2% is a large enough figure to generate enough to cover costs and make profit on market moves. In which case keep doing what you were doing that generated the fund. Or your risking markets so volitile that you will get caught out.
No one every really knows where a price will go it's 50/50. You can have an educated guesses but it's still a guess.
Do you have a portfolio already? If not and assuming you're in for the long term just by a tracker. You're buying when the markets low which is what the bug long term funds will do
The financial experts, analysts, investors and markets have decided that Rolls Royce share price is what it is.
Whether they are under priced or over priced compared to the overall market is a coin toss.
If you want a punt then go for it. If you're looking to invest then you should pick something more diversified than shares in a single company.
Which, when you think about it, means that someone else lost £800 in 10 days.
It really does not.
Seems a bit risky...I just bought shares, market price £1.15 but buying from gross salary effectively makes them about £0.76.
Still a bit nerve racking, the company I think are pretty resilient to Covid and Recession but with lots of changes going on at work with redundancies, it could go either way! Cut a load of costs which makes the investors happy, but at the same time they are kicking out loads of experienced employees with countless years of experience, and recruiting new ones in alternative locations, a few weeks training is not a patch on experience and this could impact on service levels.
Oh I though you were buying a car………
It would be more fun. Silver Shadow's are still very low in price and I would love to drive around in one.
Which, when you think about it, means that someone else lost £800 in 10 days.
It really does not.
Across the whole market, it does. Question is, can you beat the market average by making short term trades and paying fees on each transaction?
Do you have a portfolio already?
Nah just a random collection of shares in about 6 different companies.🤔
Doing various short term trades in contravention of the accepted wisdom that you can't beat the market. I'm sure the wisdom is correct, but it's quite fun so far. One the market settles down, perhaps ina year or so then I'll just leave it in whatever I've got. But for the moment I'm just pissing about trading.
Hugo:
The financial experts, analysts, investors and markets have decided that Rolls Royce share price is what it
Yep, totally agree. I did read that part of the book.
Across the whole market, it does. Question is, can you beat the market average by making short term trades and paying fees on each transaction
Nope, but having fun trying. Keep making a few hundred here and there and building up s reasonable gain, then do something stoopid like buying 13,000 Trafford centre Intu shares the week before they went bankrupt. Currently 14% up since march, which is probably way behind the market in general.
Nope, but having fun trying.
Enjoy it while it lasts. Just don't gamble with money you can't afford to lose.
Seems a bit risky…I just bought shares, market price £1.15 but buying from gross salary effectively makes them about £0.76.l
That's a great discount. Those company factors you mentioned are priced in and so should already be taken account of.
If you just want the car, this one is available on autotrader...
Rolls Royce are significantly more vulnerable to the pandemic than others in he commercial aerospace sector. The vast majority of RRs revenue is derived from long range and servicing and these are two sectors which are going to be SLOW to recover. RR has almost no presence in the short haul sector anymore. Thats all covered by Pratt and CFM.
Across the whole market, it does.
Not at all. People sell shares and generally make some return. it might not be the biggest return you could have made. The thing that makes shares drop in value is an increase in the number of people selling. All those people selling at any given time will have bought at a variety of purchase prices and the overwhelming majority will have made some return. People don't tend to sell shares at a loss. You may not make the biggest return possible and might not make as much as you could have if you just chucked your capital in a high interest savings account. You might be ditching RR shares to free up capital to invest in another stock that might look like a better bet for example. Impossible to say who the winners and losers are.
Rolls Royce are significantly more vulnerable to the pandemic than others in he commercial aerospace sector.
Not really in the round. Everyone in the sector is shafted until people start flying again. Boeing and GE were in the crap before COVID...all the MAX issues to sort out, the 777X just about to be launched and all that on hold...hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for Boeing and GE that has yet to return one cent and who knows when the 777X will take to the skies now and when it does will it sell enough given airlines currently ditching very large aircraft like the big 777's, A380's and 747's in favour of smaller more efficient aircraft? Pratt's have similar woes with the early retirement of the V2500 slashing their expected future income from that engine type and yet to pay off the development costs of their latest gen engine.
All the companies involved - airframes, engine manufacturers and the huge global supply chain are ditching around 25% to 30% of their workforce to manage costs such is the severity of the crisis, and this is only this years impact. Hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs. There probably will be more cuts and redundancies to come next year. And the year after. And the year after that in all likelihood. The industry is looking at a 5-ish year recovery just to get to Pre-COVID levels of flying.
If they survive the next 5 years the future is looking rosey....
People don’t tend to sell shares at a loss
This happens all the time.
People don’t tend to sell shares at a loss.
Sauce ?? It happens all over the shop. Folk get nervous when price drops and they panic sell
Folk get nervous when price drops and they panic sell
Those folk should not dabble in shares then.
This happens all the time.
Alot of things happen all the time. But generally if you're not being daft and are not backed into a corner such you have to sell at a given point in time then shares tend to increase in value over time. Wasn't so long that RR shares were breaking £13 a share. Based on the fact they were 68p a share not so long ago many people/portfolio's have made a ton of money on RR shares. They'll be back up again. Maybe not as high as £13 a share, but alot more than they are today.
Also shares pay dividends so your return on the stock is not always in the difference between the buy and sell prices. And some equity based investment schemes are tax efficient too so got to take all that into account.
So your suggesting share prices don't ever go down ?
Rolls-Royce isn't just a civil aviation business of course too.
Big, steady Defence sector, growing and only moderately hit Power Systems sector and a growing and increasingly influential digital group developing and selling into the data market.
Then electrical stuff too.
See
Erm no.
See what?
Ps. I bought some. Only a little bit though.
Farnborough and RIAT bump
Cool. In at 2.60, out again at 2.82. £76 profit on a £1k investment.
Think I'll try that one again in a few days....
What happened to the other £10 or 1% shift in your favour?
Shares us 8.5% and profit 7.6%
Run away, Run away.
Engines sell at a loss, money is in the contracted service of 10 cycles.
RR profit predicts on future income from these 10 services and fleets are mothballing planes, so less services. It's a bit like ink jet printer sales.
Personally I would never act on any advice regarding investment from any internet forum/phone call/letter in post/my mate says. Good luck, it may well just pay off, however risks are way too high IMO.
What happened to the other £10 or 1% shift in your favour?
£4.95 to buy, £4.95 to sell, £5 Stamp duty.
I overstated the profit a bit. Only £69
Cool. In at 2.60, out again at 2.82. £76 profit on a £1k investment.
Think I’ll try that one again in a few days…
Right, it dropped again to 2.54, so I bought another grands worth and waited for it to go up to 2.82 again 🙂
But it didn't, can you believe it.... it dropped to 2.47 🙁
So the obvious solution was to buy some more at this new "never to be repeated " low. So I did.
And then it dropped again to 2.43 so I spent my last £750 to try to reduce my losses.
Then it dropped to 2.39
Can't believe you lot didn't warn me this might happen. 😉
They've rallied a little now to £2.41 - you're on your way back to BIG PROFITS! 😀
Day trading (/short term investing) is a zero sum game in terms of beating the market - e.g., if the market rises 0.4% in a day, for those investors that achieve a return of 0.6%, there must be corresponding investors who achieve only 0.2%.
However - it doesn't mean that everyone in the market can't make money over a given period. A rising tide floats all boats yada yada.
A rising tide floats all boats yada yada.
My boat's sprung a leak.
Have those day trading this company seen the rumoured rights issue in September?
Run! Run away I tells you!
Crashed to 215p today 😬
Thread just bought back my attention to RR:
So:
- Downgraded as junk by Moodys
- Rights Issue diluting shareholders in Sept
They say don't try to catch a falling knife but hey; let's have some fun, I'm in (small amount I can afford to lose).
Any of you guys using trading 212. Always been an HL guy but the fees... Any catches?
In at 218.
Let's see if I'm laughing or crying in 3 yrs.
Check out SIG Plc if you like lost causes 😉
Great article on WSJ about how “the world has too many jet engines...”
It also echos my point about RR being particularly vulnerable to the Covid Crisis due to their reliance on servicing and their absence from the more rapidly recovering short haul segment of the market.
Very few big planes are flying, many are likely never to do so again, many of these planes have RR engines. These engines now have limited worth as there is an abundance of them, limiting their value as parts and their likelihood of being serviced.
Sales or new, large aircraft were already slow, after C19 both Airbus and Boeing have cut production of large aircraft by 50-60%.
Rolls may have market share in marine, defence, nuclear, etc, but the company is insolvent without Aerospace as it’s by far the largest proportion of the company and the one which pays for/ provides for all others.
Good point... is now a great time to be investing in an industry with huge problems & an uncertain future? Unless you think that it's already dropped as low as it can possibly go (although I think this thread has already proved that's not the case!)“the world has too many jet engines…”
Reminds me of when my brother in law started with Yellow Pages many years ago.
Some great deal on shares. He stuck 2k into them and just watched his rainy day fund drain away.... 😁
Agree re jet engines. Let’s assume RR never sell another. RR is still interesting for power systems, defence and IP.
My complete amateur / arm chair analyst reasoning goes:
* People need power to charge their ebikes, watch Netflix or fight...
* ...People will never stop fighting over (insert whatever makes people angry this minute here).
As long as the above is true RR still in with a shot.
SIG PLC you say. Never heard of them before but why not.
* UK planning laws look they are about to get overhauled to drive home building.
* People will always need shelter of some description.
Any more falling knife lost causes to help me start my STW lost cause mini fund haha...
Yeah I did have a punt on SIG Plc - I think the fundamentals of the business look good, but there was some news about a takeover I didn't have time to delve into fully. I got nervy and sold with a massive net profit of £26 on a grand 😀
How about Aviva or Primark (Associated British Foods is the ticker, weirdly)? Though the latter falls foul of even my flimsy ethical principles...
Yell made minimal revenue via physical booklets requiring loss making physical production, logistics and sales teams. Up against them were no way for customers to measure ROI, a poor management team in a winner takes most market vs Google Maps, automation, the rest of SV and the internet. They were dead before they started fund rather than STW lost cause fund...
Aviva - Not lost enough.
Primark - As above.
Thread just bought back my attention to RR:
– Downgraded as junk by Moodys
– Rights Issue diluting shareholders in Sept
Well...all aerospace companies have been downgraded recently even Boeing and Airbus as well as RR's competitors. Doesn't mean that much in the long run. Just a minor inconvenience as it means capital is more expensive to buy and they're all borrowing big time at the moment.
On Rights issues...There are upsides to rights issues too. Depends on a great many factors and who knows how investors will view it. Who know's what is in the mind of investors at any time? All depends on how RR sells it.
Great article on WSJ about how “the world has too many jet engines…”
It also echos my point about RR being particularly vulnerable to the Covid Crisis due to their reliance on servicing and their absence from the more rapidly recovering short haul segment of the market.
Very few big planes are flying, many are likely never to do so again, many of these planes have RR engines. These engines now have limited worth as there is an abundance of them, limiting their value as parts and their likelihood of being serviced.
All engine manufacturers are exposed to COVID as they all make their money from engine servicing. So if aircraft are not flying they're not coming in for servicing so RR is no more exposed than any other manufacturer - they've all announced similar levels of redundancies and cost saving measures. In fact the RR powered fleet is significantly younger on average than the competition so when aircraft do come back into service it will be the younger more efficient aircraft coming back first, so the 787's, A350's A330's etc. which RR is very well represented on. And for every A380, 747 and 777 that doesn't come back into service it just means there will be two 787's/A330's/A350's in its place. The big jumbo's are falling out of favour not because of lack of passengers, but because the network and market has changed and they're too specialised and not flexible enough for most airlines and they cannot optimise their networks. Better to have 2 A350's than one A380. The older gen aircraft will be much slower to come back if they come back at all.
Alot of governments bailing out airlines are providing help with strings attached...that airlines improve their environmental impact, so more likely that younger more efficient aircraft will be stood up - or even new aircraft purchased, which will benefit RR. Also Airbus are offering a scheme like the car replacement scheme, which might stimulate more sales and replacement of 'old smokers', and RR exclusively powers Airbus WB aircraft right now.
The rapid return to flying for narrow body aircraft demonstrates the demand for flying is still as strong as ever. Narrow body aircraft are currenlty flying about 80% of pre-covid schedules in the biggest markets - basically servicing the traffic in the huge US, Chinese and the asian domestic markets. International traffic, which the bigger wide body aircraft serve, is still being subdued due to government policies preventing international traffic...but as soon as those restrictions are lifted then it is highly likely international traffic will increase very quickly. It'll most likely still take several years to get back to pre-COVID levels, but traffic will return to decent levels pretty quickly and continue to grow. Traffic has been increasing slowly since March, but still a way to go yet.
RR is going through an extremely tough time right now and it is likely to get tougher before it gets better. But they're no different than any other airline, manufacturer, supplier or player in the industry but it's not all doom and gloom...certainly as doom and gloom as the WSJ portrays it...and always portrays it...they're not RR's biggest fans and pretty much all their articles involving RR are pretty pessamistic in favour of their more favoured manufacturers on the 'right' side of the Atlantic. They're about 2 years too late in 'breaking the news' of overcapacity in the industry too - about par for the course for them.
Billoxs. Piss off. The lot of you.
😄😜😀😃😁
Ha ha. I'm so ****ed.
Rolls may have market share in marine, defence, nuclear, etc, but the company is insolvent without Aerospace as it’s by far the largest proportion of the company and the one which pays for/ provides for all others.
There is a contrarian view that it’s actually the civil aerospace business that is holding them back. It’s capital intensive, product is sold at a massive loss (imagine going into dragons den trying to sell a business where every product you sell you make a huge loss on).
I was chatting to a mate the other day who was saying some investors are calling for civil aerospace (or the large engine part of it) to be sold. Couldn’t believe it at first but the more I think about it I can see it could make sense.
Not really. Where do you think the engine cores and research that the cores for marine and commercial gets done? Aerospace. Rolls biggest problem is that it keeps developing shit engines. Trent 900 - massive problems. Trent 1000 - massive problems. Luckily the XWB and 7000 seem to be more solid.
Any of you guys using trading 212. Always been an HL guy but the fees… Any catches?
Yep, I use the ISA account to dabble, IIRC You're capped at £100000 worth of deposits P/A (although you'd be well over your ISA limit by then) and I think you're limited on the total number of trades you can do in a day/week/month and more constrained on how many trades you can do per day on a single stock. Those measures are probably to deter the Professionals/day traders from using it as a fee free platform on the side...
Any Dividends earned are automatically paid into the account balance (treated as earned interest I think for the purposes of an ISA)...
you can set limit buy and sells (for whole units only) which is handy if you don't spend all day glued to it
you can trade some shares fractionally (Nice if you don't fancy paying the full ~$3k for a single share of Amazon at present).
Their charts and info on companies are generally toss, go and google more detail on any company before buying...
I think they probably prop up the "free" Trading/ISA account with the CFD thing which I'm pretty sure people piss small fortunes away on, Don't touch it...
Overall it's easy, quick and convenient to use.
I've found it best to stick to just a few shares/ETFs that I can keep track of and manage, some that will be a bit more stable longer term and track with markets, and a couple of more speculative (I've watched the news and Reckon I've spotted an opportunity) type shares...
My general rule is never sell at a loss (just tough it out if a share goes down unexpectedly hold on till it recovers, that's where the Limit Sell function can be handy) and overall aim to match or beat ~3% because that's about the best any ISA (well my Kid's NS&I ISas anyway) seem to be able to offer...
My general rule is never sell at a loss (just tough it out if a share goes down unexpectedly hold on till it recovers, that’s where the Limit Sell function can be handy)
Can you explain this one please. Surely Limit Sell function and "never sell at a loss" are contradictory?
Think you are thinking stop loss order.
Limit sell order is just a sell at a target price - not at a loss.
Both stop you having to look at screen all day.
Made 4.5% on RR today - should just quit now haha.
Ah right. Thanks.
Silly me.
Aware of the scale of the aerospace sector @ RR. CLE “powers” the company (if you excuse the pun) but it’s also the sector that sells each and every product at a very large loss. Investors don’t usually like that sort of thing. Bad for business etc.
I was aghast at the thought of RR selling off CLE, but from an investor point of view I can see why some would want to. (That’s not an indictment that it’s going to happen)
Re poor engines - The XWB isn’t bullet proof and is starting to show some issues. Thankfully nothing of the scale of the T1000.
In at 218
10% profit in 24h hours. Nice one.
10% profit in 24h hours. Nice one.
This is still in the margins though.
RR hasn't been this low for years, I'm sure people will be buying a few shares for what seems like relative peanuts while it's still under 250 and be willing to just hold on for as long as it takes (years probably) for them to bounce back by say ~300%...
These current swings will only go on for so long (while they're getting their less positive announcements out? ). Hence gambling on one day fluctuations becomes increasingly risky if the price goes and stabilises. So don't buy anything now that you can't afford to be stuck with for a longer period...
Can you explain this one please. Surely Limit Sell function and “never sell at a loss” are contradictory?
You set a sell price and qty you want to sell, you set that price above the current value, and unless you're mad above the price you paid. Its worth noting that limit sells do carry a couple of risks, you may set a limit that turns out to be well below the peak value the share hits and miss out on some potential profit, or go and set it too high and miss an opportunity to sell on a peak and then be lumbered with shares you don't particularly want. Set your selling prices realistically and look at historical values, don't go for the peak price, look at an average value instead, something it has a reasonable liklihood of hitting again.
Stop and stop/limit are also options but I only ever tend to use (GTC) limit on shares I expect to rise eventually. Limit/stop allows you to set upper/lower boundaries for a sale.
There are similar tools for buying if you think a share might dip below a certain value, but the risks are similar, you might miss the bottom out price or set it too low...
It's worth noting that all share prices have been affected by CV19 to some extent, so current trading conditions are not the norm. At some point things will change again. Big events and unstable markets mean opportunities for big profits and losses. Personally I'm less bothered about making thousands of pounds ina single "brave" trade and more about using it to "beat the banks" in terms of savings interest.
11% and hasn’t started. To put into perspective I’m classing this as a bet rather than investment.
Researching more the things that make this a good bet are bad for the industry, the co and our country long term...
...activist investor/s / PE likely to poor in, gut loss making parts of co (that likely do drive a lot of R&D) and sell IP with the aim to drive profit / share price in the short term. C-suite incentive scheme will Likely be tied to this. Opportunity too great.
Wish Boom Aerospace were in the UK and I could work / invest for them.
Ajbell. Youinvest.co.uk
Seems to work ok, though I have no experience of others.
It's an ISA
RR closing price was 245p; same as it was on April 25th 1997.
Don't know why I posted that stupid question about limit sells and limit buys...... Complete brain freeze. Was mixing them up with stop loss orders.
God knows why, as I must have done about a hundred and thirty transactions since opening the account in March, about half of which were probably limit transactions.
DOH.
29%... Crazy. Offset losses against stupid SaaS stock over the same period... Fastly / FSLY grrrrrr.
He he. You must have made a stack at 218. Did you sell yet or planning on holding? I was in at 245 average or thereabouts. Sold them in three slices finishing up at 280ish today, so a couple of hundred quid profit is happy days.
Down again now please.
I've just finished as an interim at SIG
Very interesting business and raised £165m of equity through existing shareholders and a big new PE shareholder
New CEO and CFO too, and a back to basics strategy
I think they could do well....but I'm no financial advisor lol