I've not been this concerned about nuclear conflict since being force fed Threads during an English class in 1984.
Are we seeing the coincidence of events that could invoke an exchange? I'm having the sleepless nights of my 14 year old self when a passing 737, to my ears, was an incoming SS22.
I doubt it - the principal of mutually assured destruction hasn't changed. No country can reliably eliminate nuclear missiles in flight at the moment.
There won't be a war over Taiwan. The governments/countries around the world will all proclaim how bad it is but will do f all about it and definitely not worth fighting for, what would they win?
On the other hand, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea without anyone really doing anything to stop it. China sees Taiwan as a part of it and are big enough they might be able to pull it off. I mean, Taiwan will fight like hell to stop that, which China knows full well, so this may put them off. Maybe we should be looking at what else China is doing while they rattle their sabres this way.
My money is on gas though. Europe has to get it from Russia and Putin will use this to pressure them and the UK into something.
The governments/countries around the world will all proclaim how bad it is but will do f all about it
Couldn’t agree more, don’t want to lose the Chinese market.
what would they win?
TSMC?
Losing their fabs would be pretty problematic and assuming they werent a smoking wreck would give China a serious advantage.
I guess China feels that the US is in a mood to stand back and watch things happen rather than intervene, so maybe it's a good time for them to tidy up the Taiwan issue. I don't think they'll go for it unless they have calculated it can be done with minimal bloodloss though.
My money is on Germany to invade Russia again.
Best of three, winner takes all.
There won't be a war over Taiwan - if/when China decide they want to invade they'll do what Russia did in Crimea.
The US/UN will make a fuss then remember where their iPhones are made so let them get on with it.
I think Gas is a different matter, however Russia are skint and cannot afford a war, even if they wanted one.
Russia are skint
Have you seen its bank statements?
Have you seen Putin's?!
Gas prices are going to continue to rise. Demand will continue to go up as percentage of renewables goes up, needing "peaker" gas plants or giant batteries that don't exist. Russia has Europe over a barrel and will be able to do whatever they want - but that won't trigger WW3.
Taiwan - the current president of China Xi Jinping is the most powerful dictator in the world but would the Peoples Liberation Army follow his orders to invade, disrupting their lucrative business ventures? Perhaps, but I think China is more likely to use a combination of carrot and stick to get its way. The carrot would be special status within China (although they've made that a hard sell by what they're doing in HK), the stick would be levels of blockade and economic disruption.
The USA isn't going to go to war for Taiwan, they will stop at military aid.
On the other hand, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea without anyone really doing anything to stop it
Swap Russia for Germany and Crimea for Rhineland, Austria, Czechoslavakia, etc, etc. WWII would have been much easier if we had stepped in in 1936, but also very unpopular and probably harder to justify at the time.
What should do if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine, or Estonia?
.
Taiwan is a bit different. China see Taiwan as part of China. Taiwan see Taiwan as part of China. The difference is over which is the legitimate China and which is the insurgent/hold out bit. If the big bit of China decides to finish the job and take over the last remaining bit holding out against the communists that is more likely to be the end of the territorial ambitions than Russia taking Ukrakne, they would go further, I'm not sure China would. They seem to prefer influence to conquest.
but would the Peoples Liberation Army follow his orders to invade
I think the more obvious question is; could they?
Taiwan is over 100 miles offshore from the China mainland at it's nearest point (which is Hong Kong, so that's out as a jumping off point ) an Invasion is not something that's easily achievable even in these days of airlift. the PLA Airforce has 20* or so IL-76 which at most can carry about a couple of hundred troops at a time. so even if you pressed every single one off those into service and they dropped parachute troops or captured an airfield that's a maximum of 5000 or so ground troops to hold out until they can be supported by the sea borne reinforcement and support that will take a day or so to get there at best, and then fight it's way on shore. with troops that haven't ever been involved in war fighting, and have no experience of invading anything ..
* to add some context the USAF has the following airlift...
52 Galaxy C-5
222 C-17 Globemasters
324 Various Hurcules
if/when China decide they want to invade they’ll do what Russia did in Crimea.
Tad harder for China though since Crimea there was a significant group who thought of themselves as Russians that Putin could use to confuse things.
In Taiwan there isnt the same link to Communist China and so no fifth column to use. Plus its a lot harder to send support there than it is for Putin's troops to go on a fully equipped holiday.
The US/UN will make a fuss then remember where their iPhones are made so let them get on with it.
The importance of Taiwan though is significant. Its a crucial source of chips for pretty much everyone so is rather more valuable.
What should do if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine, or Estonia?
I hope he doesn't decide to invade Estonia. It's a NATO member and we, along with the rest of the gang, will be obliged to invoke article 5 and do something about it.
Putin clearly supports anything that helps prevent NATO, or EU members acting with a single voice and in lockstep. I'm sure he's please with Brexit and the French being ticked off about AUKUS etc.
Taiwan's defence ministry seems to believe that by 2025 the PLA would be in a position to successfully invade Taiwan. If that means they could walk in on a Friday afternoon, change the government, and everyone's back at work on a Monday morning then I'd guess they could get away with it...
...But, given the size, training and equipment of the Taiwanese military (regulars and reserves) I don't believe that would happen and it would be a shit show, compelling others to become involved, one way or the other - even if not directly/officially with ground or naval forces.
If you want something to worry about look at China/India/****stan. All nuclear armed, all on the brink of actual conflict several times a year
No chance on earth anyone goes to war [that doesn't look easy to win] on someone else's behalf these days.
If you want something to worry about look at China/India/****stan. All nuclear armed, all on the brink of actual conflict several times a year
This
The European countries that are worried about Russia are reintroducing conscription and restrictions on property ownership. They all saw what happened to Ukraine and the ongoing conflict and are rightly concerned.
Disconnecting from Russian natural gas is in everyone's interest until there is significant political change
If you want something to worry about look at China/India/****stan. All nuclear armed, all on the brink of actual conflict several times a year
And frankly, climate change will kill more folk over the next few decades anyway. Meanwhile countries we have not yet considered may decide to pinch some more water/agricultural land/mines/natural resources from a neighbour as they get desperate to feed people.
meh.
Agricultural land mines?
I don't think AT stands for anti-tractor
If you want something to worry about look at China/India/****stan. All nuclear armed, all on the brink of actual conflict several times a year
Yup.
Especially if you factor in the impact of the Taliban in ****stan.
Can we pick none of the above? I can’t see either leading to a war on that sort of scale if at all. Climate change on the other hand is worth worrying about.
100 seconds to midnight. Closest it has been since it's inception in 1947.
BigEaredBiker
Full Member
What should do if Russia decides it wants the rest of Ukraine, or Estonia?I hope he doesn’t decide to invade Estonia. It’s a NATO member and we, along with the rest of the gang, will be obliged to invoke article 5 and do something about it.
As much as we like to profess we'll all look out for each other, Estonia is too small and insignificant for NATO/EU to step up and defend for the ball ache it will cost. At best there would be sanctions (again), but the EU will not risk Russia turning the gas off, it would be Crimea MK2..
As much as we like to profess we’ll all look out for each other, Estonia is too small and insignificant for NATO/EU to step up and defend for the ball ache it will cost. At best there would be sanctions (again), but the EU will not risk Russia turning the gas off, it would be Crimea MK2..
That's my point. We didn't stop then taking Crimea, won't stop them taking Estonia as you say, if they want Belarus they might as well, it's basically Russia anyway. Latvia next, probably the same arguemen as Estonia.
Would we (US, UK, France, the bigger NATO players) go to war to protect Poland or Hungary? Should we? How about Austria or Germany?
We'll give up anyone who have is nil point in Eurovision. EU on the other hand, Id say Hungary will go, but probably just fall short on Poland, though the Polish don't really like the EU rules ( like the money though)..
All the Slovaks will rattle thier keys again....
Don't think we'll see nukes going off necessarily.
Far cheaper, easier ways of subjugating other states these days whilst keeping them functioning to supply the needs of the aggressor state.
I see a relatively slow decline interrupted by occasional escalations.
Britain has yet to find its new place in the world post WW2 and I do wonder how the U.S. (and a declining West in general) are going to react to China's ascendancy?
I also wonder to myself if humanity's only hope is that we are unified under a totalitarian state in the model of China. A loss of freedoms and human rights for a greater good? Perhaps.
Still petrifies me though.
Is there a possibility that all the taiwan saber rattling is distracting from the very real financial collapse threat?
China is just testing the water at the moment but in another 10 years we might see some heavy actions but not the full action yet. By the time China built their 10th aircraft carriers that's the time we see war. Aircraft carriers may not be their main priority but just something they will use to subdue SE Asia. They are building their 3rd or 4th aircraft carriers now. If they go into full scale building they can probably build at least 2 each year (yes, they can). Also their strategy is to trap the other (US etc) aircraft carriers within the kill zone with their long range missiles. They are also building a lot of subs too but their technology is still slightly behind but not far.
Their land boarder to the west is protected by Islamic countries and to the east they are only vulnerable Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. To the South they are protected by Indonesia (China is actively influencing the politics there). While the West is sitting pretty China is preparing for full scale war. It is just a matter of time as history is repeating itself.
China has to deal with The Evergrande Group first.
As they say in Denmark, “Prediction, is hazardous, especially about the future.”
Russia has no strategy beyond trying to undermine democracies. Putin might be an utter ****, but he knows that armed conflict with NATO would be suicidal, so he's not going to go down that route.
China is not as strong as it looks. It has made huge strides but is still dependent on other countries for technology and resources. Threatening Taiwan is one way to distract attention from other problems. China would probably be able to successfully invade if the U.S. did not intervene, but it would come at a heavy cost in lives. The U.S. considers the status of Taiwan to be unresolved - it's not recognized as a country, but it's also not recognized as part of China. That ambiguity is what is stopping China from invading. If the U.S. formally recognized Taiwan as a country, the Chinese leadership would be forced to invade because the Chinese public would not accept it. There is also ambiguity about what the U.S. would do if China did try to invade, there would be enormous political pressure to send aircraft carriers and submarines to assist Taiwan, and China knows that their military could not survive an armed conflict with the U.S.
China's current policies have antagonized most of its neighbours, so it's impossible to know how things will play out. It's possible that China will tone things down and adopt a more cooperative strategy, it's also possible that they won't. However, I doubt China will deliberately attempt to provoke armed conflict with the U.S. and its allies, the danger is that small provocations keep escalating and the Chinese leadership end up in a position where they cannot back down due to domestic political pressure.
I also wonder to myself if humanity’s only hope is that we are unified under a totalitarian state in the model of China. A loss of freedoms and human rights for a greater good? Perhaps.
What greater good could come out of that? Loss of freedom and human rights under a totalitarian regime doesn’t seem like a path to any greater good I can think of
In much the same way that Johnson uses manufactured arguments with the EU to mask his own incompetence, Xi is using Taiwan do distract from his domestic issues re building industry crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/09/cambridge-colleges-accused-exploiting-gig-economy-tutors
This was an interesting read on why defending Taiwan is a trap that the US should avoid:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/05/the-us-must-avoid-war-with-china-over-taiwan-at-all-costs
If the whole world relies on Taiwan for chip production, and we anticipate that supply becoming more precarious - are people investing in alternative sites for chip fabrication?
Reshoring chip manufacturers is happening
If you want something to worry about look at China/India/****stan. All nuclear armed, all on the brink of actual conflict several times a year
With nice, stable Afghanistan in the locality too.
In much the same way that Johnson uses manufactured arguments with the EU to mask his own incompetence, Xi is using Taiwan do distract from his domestic issues re building industry crisis
Mendacious leaders with nothing to offer have done this since time immemorial. These two are amateurs. Which, conversely, might be worse for the rest of us.
