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I understand that the UK economy is in poor shape, the probelms stemming from Brexit will not be addressed any time soon b/c politically they're being completely ignored, and we effectively have no government (which might only be slighlty worse than having one given then current lot?). Do people think we're heading towards a big crash or just a 'slow puncture' in terms of growth, jobs, etc?
slow puncture, stock market has been bouncing all over the place in recent weeks,
i've been getting bombarded with emails for jobs in the past few weeks, still alot of employers out their looking for (ahem) 'Accountants' not that i've been one since i qualified :0)
brexit voters never thought about all those jobs uk citizens just dont want, europeans always back filled them.
for example you'd think the airline industry would be gaining momentum by now. nope cant fufill the one basic requirement.
I'm going to say no, but might be better to say "different".
Last time it crashed from the top down, there was no money so businesses folded and unemployment went up.
This time the jobs are there, but they're not productive enough and not paying enough. So it's crashing from the bottom up. People will still be in work, but incomes get squeezed and the economy doesn't grow.
The difference is last* time if you kept your job then there was no impact on you. Whereas those of us who did really struggled. This time it'll hit everyone proportionally (which proportionally effects the poorest most).
*2008-2016, same as with COVID, if you WFH or were furloughed you had an easy few years economically. If you were laid off then it was a shitter of a job market.
^^^ That's my thoughts too. It'll be a long slow burner this time round so that it won't be one big shock that gets dealt with, it'll be a gradual decline that will catch up with different groups at different times. We'll all notice things like fewer holidays being taken by friends, lease cars not being replaced or downgraded when they're up for renewal, cut backs in household budgets and what's left over for leisure treats will happen gradually effecting different sectors at different times.
We'll get to appoint a few years down the line where we can look back and see what we have all lost but at the time the changes will be gradual enough to barely register.
Do people think we’re heading towards a big crash or just a ‘slow puncture’
"Events, dear boy, events"
Who knows, anything could happen in the next few months/years. The Crash happened partly because banks suddenly (and it was very sudden) realised that they couldn't trust each other to pay their debts. That exposure has gone away thanks to QE, but another round of hard COVID?, an escalation of the war in Ukraine? Russia going (even more) nuts..?
It's not looking rosy, is it?
2008 was a worldwide thing whereas for the most part our issues are domestic so I can't see an repeat of the financial crash. That said the reality of our collective self destructive decision have yet to be fully realised but these will happen in the "real Economy" rather than say the FTSE 100 or other stock markets. So the welathy (those with large amounts of assets) will not notice anything but the rest of us will in a proportianl way like TINAS suggested (i.e. inversely to their wealth).
as for Russia, I can't see that escalating any time soon. The invasion of Ukraine has seriously degraded their ability to fight a war (a cynical part of me thinks this is why the west has been so happy to provide weapons) so a conventional war against the west is a non starter.
Yeah, the crash was a specific event that could (eventually) be sorted out. Now we've given ourselves systemic problems with no clear way to rectify them.
It's going to be felt differently from 2008.
It's going to squeeze the jobs that rely on disposable income.
Credit will get more expensive as well
As above,it will be like a stealth recession.Exports down and more and more reliance on expensive (if you can afford them) imports.Bigger gaps between the have and the have nots.
Low unemployment figures hiding millions that will be treading water in shitty jobs ,choosing between food or fuel. Xmas is going to be grim,hope it's a mild winter.
as for Russia, I can’t see that escalating any time soon. The invasion of Ukraine has seriously degraded their ability to fight a war (a cynical part of me thinks this is why the west has been so happy to provide weapons) so a conventional war against the west is a non starter.
The only worry would be if China figures the same and starts drip feeding the Russians weaponry knowing it can probably outspend Europe.
@nickc - all those factors along with the backdrop of the disaster that is Brexit. I don't know why anyone isn't more vocal on the real time problems of importing and exporting that Brexit has directly caused.
If, (or rather when) the disaster capitalists decide they need an economic crash, we'll have an economic cash.
2008 was a worldwide thing whereas for the most part our issues are domestic so I can’t see an repeat of the financial crash.
There are a series of international problems occurring (two big ones of which could still get worse before they get better [ covid & Russia ], and others are made more likely because of them [ climate & China])... effecting nearly all countries, especially in Europe. They may well politically mask our domestic issues... but they won't help solve the economic effects. Worldwide issues stopping/distracting us from acknowledging and addressing our own domestic problems is a very real risk, meaning when recoveries come elsewhere, we won't benefit to the same degree.
After the 2008 crash we, literally, lead the world in mitigating and restricting the damage to ordinary people's lives. And still it hit us hard. No, the difficulties we're facing over the next 12 months won't be a repeat of the 2008 crash. We'll be more hamstrung that other countries in responding to them, and others won't be looking to us for the answers or stability.
2008 was a worldwide thing whereas for the most part our issues are domestic
We do have some domestic only issues but the bulk of issues are international.
+1 fasthaggis ☹️
China would need to a) decide a weaker Europe was in its interest, b) figure it could outspend Europe and the US combined, and c) believe that it could maintain its trading relationship with the US (and to a lesser extent Europe) whilst doing so. Seems unlikely to me, but with US midterms leading to a change in the power balance who knows!
China would need to a) decide a weaker Europe was in its interest, b) figure it could outspend Europe and the US combined, and c) believe that it could maintain its trading relationship with the US (and to a lesser extent Europe) whilst doing so. Seems unlikely to me, but with US midterms leading to a change in the power balance who knows!
A weaker Europe would be very *not* in China's interest i'd have thought, someone will probably correct me but as they're an exporting economy, it is in their interest for their buyers to have a strong currency in comparison to them.