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That's how it is when you borrow from the Mafia. Syriza were naive and imagined that the creditors would discuss the problem and solutions, when in fact they just wanted to inflict defeat on a non-conforming government.
Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans, as I said look at the UK / IMF loan in the 70's - conditional on spending cuts. Greece was not trying to negotiate their offerings where farcical, the outcome we see today is exactly what Syriza had in mind.
If you don't conform to the lenders terms you better have an alternative source of funds.
Referendum question has been published, very complicated and something the vast majority of people will not understand. "No" is the first answer which I am told is highly unusual.
No it's not, if you knew anything about physics you'd realise it really isn't
What makes you imagine you have any idea what I know or don't know about physics? More fantasy on your part, just like what you imagine you know about Greek pensions. Are you a jamba sock puppet? A haircut has been ruled out 100 times by the EZ, despite being an essential feature of the IMF programme - no use now saying "if only you'd asked nicer".
Can I just ask why the people that caused and profited from this aren't all brought back to Greece and made to do public hard labour?
The Greek government have room to start reducing public expenditure on stuff like pensions and public sector pay and using that money to pump into the private side of the economy. If they came up with a credible plan
This is the trouble, what you describe as a credible plan is the further wholesale impoverishment of an entire population who through no fault of their own find themselves in this hellish situation. At what point does 'credible' become 'inhuman'?
Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans
Practice your French:
http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2015/06/28/dsk-s-exprime-sur-la-grece-entre-mea-culpa-et-propositions_1338825
I have accused jamba of not knowing what the heck he is talking about
I believe you have and perhaps it reinforces your stereotype but I've close to 30 years in the business and worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan that was required by the UK regulator around 2010 for all banks, everyone is ready for this and has a plan.
Which comment exactly JY ? I decided to stay on topic but happy to be diverted again. Plenty of quotes and evidence to show old people die in the winter of many things but rarely from being cold and certainly not as @ernie implied "fuel poverty". Overly hot weather is much more dangerous in of itself.
What makes you imagine you have any idea what I know or don't know about physics?
Because you stated something utterly incorrect, that negotiating terms is like the laws of physics.
A haircut has been ruled out 100 times by the EZ
No it hasn't, only as part of this round of negotiations, it has been mentioned it can be discussed but only once agreement on the current funding has been achieved.
I believe you have and perhaps it reinforces your stereotype but I've close to 30 years in the business
Scary, because based on the nonsense you've written on the subject, and the ignorance you've displayed, I wouldn't trust you to wash my car.
Jus' sayin'.
Because you stated something utterly incorrect, that negotiating terms is like the laws of physics.
No I didn't. Read again.
No it hasn't, only as part of this round of negotiations, it has been mentioned it can be discussed but only once agreement on the current funding has been achieved.
Factually incorrect.
The Greek government have room to start reducing public expenditure on stuff like pensions and public sector pay and using that money to pump into the private side of the economy. If they came up with a credible plan
Their 'credible plan' last week proposed 10% of cutting expenditure, and 90% increase in taxes. Not only do they famously not collect the tax due, all these new tax rises were not to be shouldered by individuals, but by business.
Now I'm not an economist, but if you're economy has already contracted by 25% and the private sector is on its knees, its probably not the best idea to clobber what remains with enormous tax rises 😯
They must have known full well that this was in no way 'credible' and their wasn't a cat in hells chance of it being approved
This is the trouble, what you describe as a credible plan is the further wholesale impoverishment of an entire population who through no fault of their own find themselves in this hellish situation. At what point does 'credible' become 'inhuman'?
I think everyone agrees the Greek people are in a bad position right now, and no plan is a miracle cure, but you have to be looking at a solution that will in the mid to longer term turn the country around.
You also have to remember there are poor people in all the other EZ countries and they are all being asked to keeping funding the Greeks with no reform forthcoming, why should they??
Binners +1
Makes you wonder what their real political agenda is.
Jamby you seem to have forgotten to explain whether you think the wrong thing is right Are you still claiming the heat kills more than the cold ?
😆
Forgive me as I missed out the THM approach in possible outcomes, though you have yet to cry Troll when unable to defend your ludicrous views, and just default to ignore.
You were wrong and you know it yet you cannot bring yourself to admit it
that is why you are Mr 100% in correct
I will leave you to work out your own credibility score.
Tragic
Merkel can't just let Greece off their debts without paying for it at the ballot box back home. Hence the whole thing is very complicated as wwhat might be best for Greece isn't the same as what's best for the European leader's political standings at home.
I've close to 30 years in the business and worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan that was required by the UK regulator around 2010 for all banks, everyone is ready for this and has a plan.
And yet when I asked you to explain why an unelected former banker, Lucas Papademos, who was installed by the EU as Greek Prime Minister to implement the Troika's austerity plan back in 2011, totally failed to resolve the crises, you were unable to do so.
About this hard labour...
Don't you think some Greeks feel like that would be fair?
jambalaya - Member
worked for a year on the Greek default / euro exit plan
aaaahhhh, now we know why it's all turned in to a bit of a mess! 😆
What were you playing at? 
You also have to remember there are poor people in all the other EZ countries and they are all being asked to keeping funding the Greeks with no reform forthcoming, why should they??
A race to the bottom then? Of course this suits the bankers and financiers who couldn't possibly consider being out of pocket for the trivial matter of feeding, clothing and housing a few million people. Playing off the poor of one country against another an excellent way of distracting people from those at the top who are really at fault.
Yawn. IMF has been consistent for the longest time in what it looks for when granting loans
Really? In 2013, Lagarde was very clear that both the IMF and the EU had miscalculated the damage that their policy recommendations would have on Greece. In her report, "Pas de merde, Sherlock" she described 2011 as a lost year and noted that the had overridden their normal rules when providing assistance to Greece."
So they BY THEIR OWN ADMISSION, they are partly culpable - rather than being consistent, they broke their own rules and now it's come back to haunt them. Her career will be defined ultimately by this failure. Tant pis.
Oops, missed the fact that Greece only has €2bn in FX reserves. A new currency under that scenario is going to be a bloody weak one!
The polarised arguments on here are no different to those between Syriza and EU and IMF.
The polarised arguments on here are no different to those between Syriza and EU and IMF.
Syriza is not hostile to the EU and the Euro, it supports both very strongly. Much of the "differences" are based purely on linguistic terminology. For example when Tsipras claimed "the Troika is over" what he meant was that he was replacing the term "Troika" with the term "the institutions".
Likewise when the EU obligingly changed the name of their austerity packages from a "Memorandum of Understanding" to simply a "programme" Tsipras was able to claim a victory in defeating the EU austerity packages.
In reality there isn't that much which separates them.
Are you still claiming the heat kills more than the cold ?
I know it gets pretty cold in (It's All Greek And There Is No Country Called) Macedonia, but iirc down by Athens on the islands the winter is pretty mild. I wouldn't be surprised if in Greece the heat killed more old people than cold weather.
But of course there is a simple factual answer to this if only someone could be bothered to look for the statistics.
you dont need to a simple google [ already provided in my first reply] will provide the answer
[b]Hot weather kills more people than cold[/b]
Google the bold bit
This is the first hit
May 20, 2015
Source:
The Lancet
Summary:
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.
somewhat surprising that moderately hot or cold is the most dangerous!
this is a better link to the actual paper
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/21/an-inconvenient-truth-from-medical-research-cold-is-far-worse-than-global-warming-at-killing-people/
The study also found that extreme temperatures were responsible for less than 1% of all deaths, while mildly sub-optimal temperatures accounted for around 7% of all deaths — with most (6.66% of all deaths) related to moderate cold.According to Dr Gasparrini, “Current public-health policies focus almost exclusively on minimizing the health consequences of heat waves. Our findings suggest that these measures need to be refocused and extended to take account of a whole range of effects associated with temperature.”
For clarity i have highlighted the most supportive text from the entire article which is an interesting , and mixed, read ;cherry picking is a fair claim
However what Jam said was wrong though the results surprised me
Still he has chatted to some friends and forgotten what we are discussing so what do the facts matter
I wouldn't be surprised if in Greece the heat killed more old people than cold weather.But of course there is a simple factual answer to this if only someone could be bothered to look for the statistics.
If you had been following the thread more closely you would have probably realised that we weren't talking about Greece with regards to deaths and fuel poverty.
See :
jambalaya - MemberEurope faces more serious issues from terrorism so it's time to end the distraction that Greece has become and kick them out of the EU, NATO too if they keep copying up with Russia.
ernie_lynch - MemberThe threat from terrorism is insignificant - fuel poverty for example kills far more than terrorism does.
Indeed it is the perceived terrorist threat which is used as a distraction to the real issues facing Europe.
So does that mean you won the argument because you were right about something that has nothing to do with the actual Greek finance issue? Have you thought about getting a job as a negotiator?
Great thread, am learning lots. 🙂
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/29/where-did-the-greek-bailout-money-go
Interesting read here on the mess.
European banks just love lending to unstable African regimes etc etc to make miney
@hora - of course, a business model tried and tested by the Mafia. The mobster is an old German guy and not Al Pacino, but the script is the same.
And then Bonio pops up and says African debt should be written off.
He's no idea.
€34bn was used to pay for various “sweeteners” to get the the deal accepted. That €34bn was added to the Greek debt
Its an enormous amount in itself. I can see now- the European banks will state that they may suffer/be at risk if the debt isn't paid or honoured thus causing problems in our home countries. I wonder if any would ask for compensation or a bail out, take legal action against? (if possible?).
So I wonder- how much of the Greek debt is interest and how much of the repayments is interest? The best thing the Greeks can do is default and leave the euro. Its the only thing. Once you've got a massive debt on credit cards you can only service the debt for so long.
The best thing the Greeks can do is default and leave the euro.
Agree. The alternative would be as advocated by the IMF and write off the debt to manageable levels, but this has been excluded by the EU, and the IMF have not pressed the point. The whole affair has been treated as an opportunity for German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece.
Bruised and battered rather than polished egos - all the main players have failed so far
German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece.
Not just polishing ego's. They're more importantly asserting that they're the biggest swinging dicks in town, and what they say go's. The Germans in particular have used this as a warning to the weaker Euro economies to do as they're bloody well told. Or else! Nobody will be allowed to jepordise the grand project. No matter what price they end up paying.
I don't think the crisis has been handled great, but at least in some ways the EZ have managed to try to ring fence Greece and stop the complete collapse of the EZ. With the banks in massive problems in 2010 what was the alternative, let them collapse?
Can we just knock on the head as well that creditors haven't suffered any losses, from Hora's link it was €76bn.
Private bondholders saw the value of their bonds drop by 53% and took a further loss by exchanging the debt for securities with a lower interest rate.This eliminated about €100bn of debt, but €34bn was used to pay for various “sweeteners” to get the the deal accepted.
"The whole affair has been treated as an opportunity for German and Dutch politicians to polish their egos, and not as a genuine search for a solution for Europe, and still less for Greece." Don't fully agree with this, there's more than Germans and dutch to be persuaded to dig deep into their countries pockets (again).
All the politicians have to look to there own electorate, how would you explain that to many piss poor voter in the rest of Europe. The Greek MPs have a clear mandate but so do those in the rest of Europe, especially those that have been through the EZ enforced austerity. I wonder what view the Greeks took of the Irish bail out, how did there politicians at the EU vote and act?
It's all about perception (not the actuality), though I think the Greeks have done well to get this far they not managed the perception well of those who'll have to stump up the cash. Shame really.
My view has not really changed from the start, the Germans who have had nearly all the benefits of being in the euro should pay out a shed load more and the Greeks need to give in a little to help the Germans believe there doing the right thing. I could be wrong of course. 🙂
Are the banks underwriting their own debt in this? Or is someone else? i.e. institutions etc hedging against a fail and insuring the debt to pay out? (whats the expert/financial term for this?). IF so its bad.
Debt will be insured using Credit default swaps which will be written by the banks so its a case of who is left holding the baby.
@hora, Non Greek banks have virtually no exposure to Greek government debt and similarly their exposure to Greek corporates are quite limited and focused on international businesses with non Greek cash flows outside the country. The vast majority of exposure to Greece lies with Greek banks, The eurozone and the IMF. The markets (investors, banks etc) have spent the last 5+ years ensuring they have very limited exposure to Greece. In the prior bailout fudge CDS was not triggered so @hobster I think most market participants don't trust that as viable credit insurance so would rather have zero exposure than reply on CDS. Certainly that was my experience / strategy - just get out / minimise any direct or indirect exposure.
It seems the banks being shut (and they are not going to open Monday 6th, I can't see how they would even post a Yes vote as bailout needs to be agreed nad voted on by EU parliaments and Tsipras cannot be credible after a Yes so more elections needed) has come as a surprise to many Greeks. I feel sad for them that they did not realise this is what would happen. There as a commentator last night that said independent of the referendum result Greek banks are likely to be shut till August which seems quite possible to me.
So the Greeks want to stay in the euro but not face financial discipline, that's an OXI-moron. FWIW the second word sums up my view of the current Greek government especially it's finance minister.
Ah cheers. the prime minister with his rhetoric- I can see him surviving all this in the eyes of the Greek people. Hes quite savvy- (politician savvy). True?
FWIW the second word sums up my view of the current Greek government especially it's finance minister.
"FWIW" - i.e. more or less nothing. It would be more convincing if you actually had some logical analysis of what he has written, and not just empty [i]ad hominem[/i].
Some feedback from a Greek friend [I just sent him the link to this page]
"it's basically one of the few journalists in Greece going over the measures one by one and explaining that the measures given to us by the troika are going to completely destroy the economy for at least 200 years to come since they wanted us to increase taxes only on the indusries that Greecce has the opportunity to make money from
so that will mean that will never be able to pay them back no matter how hard we work
our primeminister has asked them countless times to let us increase the taxes of the rich people but they did not allow us that
they want us to increase the taxes on hotels and restaurants on our islands up to 23 percent
when at the same time Ibiza and and other vaccation destinations have under 3percent taxes
so they basically are destroying our tourism profits
on top of that they wanted us to increase taxes on our pharma industry and be forced to buy their pharma products
on top of that they wanted us to increase the age of retirement to the age of 67
and lower all the money that retired people get
i will tell you one thing
my father is 73
and he has worked for 50 years
he was supposed to get pension of 1000 euros per month
and he gets only 400
with the new measures if we accept them he will be getting 240
and that is not certain
they wanted us to lower the money we spend on defence
by 400 millions
while at the same time Turkey
is invading every day our air space
that in other words means that in 2 years we will not be able to have any money for defence
and many more measures like that
those are just the tip of the iceberg
the general climate in Greece right now is that the people will vote NO for those measures
apart from the people that already have money like media executives etc
but the rest of the people cant handle those measures
im sorry but right now the salaries in greece are under poverty levels
the max salary you get is 400 euros
max salary
we cannot live like that anymore
the only people that get more money like i said before are the people that own factories or media
the rest of the people are poor
there has also started an investigation
on the legitimacy of the money we owe
and as soon as the Greek goverment started the investigation the troika started giving us final warning s etc
there have been already imprisoned 2 politicians that stole money
and many more are to follow
on top of that siemens which is a German company
is implicated in many scandlas involving money paid towards politicians for them to sign the agreements to the troikas contracts
basically they dont want the truth to be heard
and the people that are involved to go to jail
because most of their goverment along with siemens are involved in those scandals
from the money they gave through the help pacakges to greece
only 11 percent reached the actual public sector that they were aimed for
the rest were stolen by politicians/banks to keep a broken bank system afloat
that's it
"
This isn't just balancing numbers on paper.
DP
Dear Mr 100%
You forgot to address that little point of your opinion and the facts not matching
Kindest regards
@ Dr J he is the gift that keeps on giving.
I really sympathise with the man on the street in Greece. They will be the ones who feel the squeeze the most.
The bottom line though, is that decades of corrupt/incompetent government is coming home to roost.
To me, it's analogous to people using payday lenders to fund holidays/cigarettes/skytv/designer clothes. When the money is coming in it feels good. When the interest starts to add up, and the bailiff knocks on the door, the game is up.
I think an agreement will be reached before midnight. It'll be an agreement that doesnt work, or suit Greece in anyway but it buys time.
If this happens riots will follow as the only certaintity ismore pain.
Greece needs out.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/29/where-did-the-greek-bailout-money-go
sounds about standard for our financial system, privatise profits, nationalise losses...
The bailouts have been for the European financial sector, while passing the debt from being owed to the private sector to the public sector
Post-all this. Any fallout felt across Europe leads to this:
Everyone blames Greece.
The Greeks blame the Germans.
No one will actually blame the Politicians and bankers.
No one will actually blame the Politicians and bankers.
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/29/referendum-greeks-europe-capitalism-greece-eurozone-economic-system ]I wouldn't be so sure about that[/url]
This whole thing is testament to idealogically-driven political ineptitude, still totally in thrall to a busted and utterly discredited neo-liberal econonomic system, and daily proves how the interests of banks and corporates trumps by miles the needs of Europes citizens
sounds about standard for our financial system, privatise profits, nationalise losses...
What other option did they have, let the Greek banks fail in 2010 and then take down the German, French and any other exposed banks with the knock on effects spreading around the globe. To an extent the EZ policies at the time appear to have worked with certain countries like Ireland and at least if Greece goes now they have done their best to try and ring fence the damage. But ultimately the past has gone and the focus is and should be on getting the EZ back working.
Been quite busy as you can imagine, will try and keep up and make a few quality ( 😀 ) contributions and going to be mostly offline for 3 weeks.
the gift that keeps on giving.
That's exactly how the Greeks think of the EU JY. Happy to help BTW
Topical article today in the Guardian. 20,000 died in the last European heatwave, article notes how the heat is dangerous to the elderly. I know it's inconvenient for you it was posted today but please take the time to read it 😉
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/30/heatwave-temperature-continent-40-spain-portugal-france ]Guardian link[/url]
It would be more convincing if you actually had some logical analysis of what he has written, and not just empty ad hominem.
Why should I need to when there have been pages and pages of rebuttals of his nonsense published and the eurozone finance ministers refused to continue dealing with him. You yourself posted his speech full of wiffly waffly bollix, like the Colour Purple "show me the money" is what it's all about. He's a very intelligent man and knows full well the consequences of his actions but obscures them from the electorate amongst all his political nonsense. The latest being he's going to sue the EU and our exit from the euro is non-negotiable, I nearly fell of my chair laughing. As I said his future is personally golden with guest lecture fees at $100,000 a clip I would guess.
@gofaster, that's a long list. Harsh times indeed but a default and return to the Drachma is much worse which is why the Greek electorate even back in December made it clear they didn't want a euro exit. It's my understanding the Troika did NOT reject higher taxes on the rich, what they rejected was tax rises which are unlikely to deliver anything like the amount of money the Greek government is projecting being used as part of the budget calculations. If Syriza where serious about raising taxes on the rich and tackling tax evasion they would have got started in that 5 months ago. Greek pensions are 16% of GDP, I can't see how that can be if pensions are really 400 euros a month. One of those two figures is wrong. Greek GDP is 179 billion euros, 11m population so if we assume 25% are pensioners that's an average pension of 10,400 euros per anum. The IMF and eurozone wants Greece to stop early retirement, ie to enforce retirement at 67 immediately. Greek's love to quote the basic pension but it's all the top ups such as the 13th and 14th month which have to be included. Greece is a poor country which has been living like a rich country, spending everyone else's money.
I am really surprised at the number of reports from Greece of people being unprepared for the bank closures. Whatever happens in the referendum I cannot see how Greek banks can open before the end of next week. I wonder if people really understand what an exit from the euro means. All their money inside Greek banks will be converted in Drachma, this will be done at an official rate which will soon be 20%-50% (your guess is as good as mine) lower than the open market rate they will be able to get. Everything imported will cost substantially more overnight, this includes food, petrol, medicines etc. Already reports of how cash businesses like taxis and restaurants in tourist areas are finding the visitors cannot pay. I can see tax evasion going through the roof and criminality picking up as people expect to find large bundles of cash hidden in apartments or being carried. No one is going to take a credit card if they can't get the money out of the bank. All of this was know to Syriza but they persisted with this madness
GFS
Thanks for the post - an interesting list. Always good to get some local colour.
But as with most discussions, the fundmental points continue to be ignored. These include:
1. The euro zone does not fulfil the criteria for an optimum currency area, so the project was doomed from the start. That is the only given. The only question is/was when will it fail.
2. If I am wrong on (1) then you need full monetary AND fiscal union and there is bugger all political will for this to happen either among the population or the politicians (especially those who would be making fiscal transfers). So the project is still doomed. As you were.
3. From the start is was obvious that the Greek debt dynamics cannot work - hence the analogy of kicking a can down the road. Starting from the assumption that it was possible meant that Greece was doomed from the start. A theme emerging here....
4. Entering into a fixed exchange rate with uncompetitive labour forces means wage deflation/unemployment/significant improvements in productivity. The Euro elite have delivered the first two. No one had delivered three (between 1990 and 2009, Greece experienced a 35% decline in unit labour cost competitiveness) Who suffers? The young and the labour force - badly. They were doomed from the start.
5. Wages collapsed but prices didn't - what does that do for consumption? Really?
6. Unlike many of the critics, Greece is currently a primary surplus - austerity anyone??? Note only that but it was paying creditors while running a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP during a recession! But at exactly the wrong time, the creditors are arguing for a primary surplus of 2-3.5% of GDP. (In the grander scheme of things this is actually small change but hey ho)
So while debt has stablished, GDP had contracted by more than any advanced economy. And guess what happens to debt/GDP ratios!!!
A buggers' muddle from the outset. A steroid/debt driven boom followed by a disaster without functioning escape valves.
That's the EZ for you!
Post-all this. Any fallout felt across Europe leads to this:Everyone blames Greece.
The Greeks blame the Germans.
No one will actually blame the Politicians and bankers.
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/30/syriza-greece-referendum-voters-failure-austerity ]The collapse of Greece’s corrupt political centre was marked earlier this year by the election of the left coalition, Syriza. Its success was built on the lie that it could deliver the same financial aid with fewer of the austere strings than its predecessors. Now that this lie has run it course, Syriza has abdicated responsibility for its own failure.
The result will be a referendum this Sunday with a crudely designed ballot in which the “no” box is given top billing and the question is framed in almost meaningless bureaucratic language. Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, who has gone into full obfuscation mode, will push for a “no” vote without any discussion of what that would mean. In other words, the Greek government will now campaign to have its own failure at the negotiating table endorsed by the very people it will hurt the most. And there is every chance this deception will succeed.[/url]
The thing is that those Greek banks which were saved (in the same way UK banks were saved) were actually EZ banks rather than Greek banks. Yet despite it being an EZ problem, the burden of debt falls back only on Greece. The big beneficiaries of the EZ have never been prepared to stand up and take responsibility.
Not only that, but saving the Greek banks was a relatively small part of the current debt burden of Greece - as explained in what kimbers quoted, most of the money was used to avoid private institutions outside Greece from taking a hit.
Personally I still think that getting the EZ working (largely an ideological thing) should take second place behind preventing people in Greece from starving.
Personally I still think that getting the EZ working (largely an ideological thing) should take second place behind preventing people in Greece from starving.
More than that - the EZ in its present form needs to be abandoned. As THM has explained its totally unworkable. It always was. It needs fundamentally restructurinng to allow for the divergent economies within it. Or it'll devastate all the southern economies. A slow motion Greece. Without that, then even if it survives the Greek collapse, then the next potential crisis is just down the road. Its just a question of who's next. Portugal? Spain? My money is on Italy.
But the present EU leadership are incapable of seeing it for what it is. This is their grand project. it cannot fail
Except it already has.
Thank Gordon Brown (despite hie many faults) saw it for what it was, right from the off, and kept us well out of it. Blair, left to his own devices, would have taken us in!
vinnyeh - interesting technique .... [u]Grimsby Town won the Champions League[/u]
No ... didn't work ... ah well, back to reality
jamba>
"Why should I need to when there have been pages and pages of rebuttals of his nonsense published and the eurozone finance ministers refused to continue dealing with him."
Failure to back up your claims noted. No surprise there, then.
The frustrating thing is that Europe in its original form is a great idea (I would vote yes of four pillars of free movement) but then morphed into an unworkable fudge - we are expected to have a referendum on the latter which is absurd. Why vote in something that by design cannot continue to exist. That is madness.
At the very least there needs to be a multi-tiered arrangement starting with four pillars and ending in the small groups for whom monetary, fiscal and political union makes sense. This could include different sub-groups. Until that point the can merely gets more beaten up.
Pensions. Couple of snippets from the OECD below
The effective age at which Greek workers exit the labour market is the fifth lowest in the OECD (61.9
for men and 60.3 for women against the OECD average of 64.2 for men and 63.1) Labour market
participation of older workers is also relatively low in Greece: less than 40% of those aged between 55 and
64 participate in the labour market
Greeks stop working sooner than almost everyone in the OECD. I would also wager that of the 60% who exit the labour market between 55 and 64 that a significant portion claim their pension and work cash in hand, no tax paid.
Prior top reforms enacted after 2010 Greek pensions where projected to reach 25% of GDP by 2050, they have manged to get that down to approx 18% 😯
Now, I'm no financial expert, but surely Greece cannot be allowed to have its debts written off? That would encourage every other struggling government to overspend, then throw their hands up in the air. To me, the future of the global financial system requires Greece to pay its way.
You're not getting that this crisis is a product of the EZ rather than the Greek government then?
Possibly the future of the EZ in its current form depends on Greece paying its way...
The crisis is a product of both EZ and Greece. Blame lies with both.
It needs fundamentally restructurinng to allow for the divergent economies within it. Or it'll devastate all the southern economies.
Agreed. How is anyone's guess, probably best bet is for Germany to leave but they aren't going to vote to make things worse for themselves.
That would encourage every other struggling government to overspend, then throw their hands up in the air.
Not really, given the pain that has been gone through to arrive at this situation.
depends on Greece paying its way
The point, grasped by the IMF but ignored by the EZ, is that this IS NOT POSSIBLE. Greece is currently in a vicious circle which it cannot get out of, even if they burn pensioners for fuel.
dantsw13 - Member
Now, I'm no financial expert, but surely Greece cannot be allowed to have its debts written off? That would encourage every other struggling government to overspend, then throw their hands up in the air. To me, the future of the global financial system requires Greece to pay its way.
In 1953, Germany faced high levels of debt, no access to capital markets and problems with creditors. The solution? Half of their outstanding debt was cancelled at the London Debt Agreement. Of course, the Germans prefer to tell you about their "economic miracle" and aptitude for hard work rather than including writing off half outstanding debt and restructuring the rest. And remember our (UK) war loans - what was the coupon?????
Not sure what the german is for "short memories"!!!
Odds on a compromise at the 19:00 meeting tonight following Tsipras' change of plea!!!
Aracer - fuelled by the EZ, sure, but the undeliverable promises of Greek politicians surely has its part too. Nobody forced them to join the EZ - they did so because they judged they would benefit.
Odds on?..
But what about the 3.5bn due next month?
Why keep the slow drawn out death going? The people will suffer if there is a 2yr stay of execution afoot.
[quote=dantsw13 ]Aracer - fuelled by the EZ, sure, but the undeliverable promises of Greek politicians surely has its part too. Nobody forced them to join the EZ - they did so because they judged they would benefit.
In the same way people judged they would benefit from self certified mortgages and sub-prime mortgages?
I don't think anybody is suggesting Greek politicians are blameless. The question is why ordinary people should suffer in order to punish the politicians - and so that those who were arguably more culpable (because they had the experience and knowledge that they should have been expected to be far more careful) avoid excessive pain.
Nobody forced them to join the EZ
Denmark and the UK have negotiated opt-outs from joining the Euro in the immediate future, Greece like all other EU member states did not. All EU member states are expected to join the Euro at some point. You are mistaken if you think that EU member states were not/are not pressurized to join the EZ and that it's all done on a purely voluntary basis.
Topical article today in the Guardian. 20,000 died in the last European heatwave, article notes how the heat is dangerous to the elderly. I know it's inconvenient for you it was posted today but please take the time to read itGuardian link
Firstly it would only be topical if it addressed the claim of whether the heat kills more than the cold. It does not do this
Secondly no one has disputed that heat can kill what has been disputed, by Lanclet for example, is YOUR claim that heat kills more than the cold
Are you not embarrassed that you posted a supportive link that does not even address the issue? 😯
[paxman to howard mode - answer the question]
DO YOU STILL MAINTAIN THAT HEAT KILLS MORE THEN THE COLD [DESPITE THE EVIDENCE THAT PROVES THIS TO NOT BE THE CASE?]
YES OR NO?
Its not hard to answer.
That fact you have sidestepped the issue again rather than just admit you were wrong is both a measure of the content of your character as well as a measure of your intellect.
TBH It was not even a big deal it just shows that you form views that are not based on facts and not reliant on them hence you are Mr 100%.
Risible as it is pitiable.
[quote=ernie_lynch ]Denmark and the UK have negotiated opt-outs from joining the Euro in the immediate future, Greece like all other EU member states did not.
Like Sweden? 😉
You have a point about the pressure, pressure which was undoubtedly rather more than is being brought to bear on Sweden - though I don't get the impression they had to be dragged kicking and screaming. The correct answer is that they should have been denied membership for not meeting the requirements. As pointed out upthread that would exclude most if not all members, but Greece was surely way further from meeting them than most other countries?
JY - you and jamba need to get a room, I don't think anybody else cares much about whether heat or cold kills more. I'm sure one of you could provide useful contributions to the main topic if you weren't otherwise distracted 😉
They are trying not to let the Swedes off, as I am sure that you are aware.
Ex UK and Denmark (and Sweden) all others have (foolishly) commits to join the € area as soon as they fulfil (seriously) the conditions for entry (cough)
I know no one cares as I am amongst them 😛
Its just a wee side bar of pigeon chess with my only point is he spouts off [ we all do to be fair] says something that is just plain factually wrong, ignores the evidence, tries to discuss something different and then insists he is right anyway by using "evidence" that does not even address his claim.
TBH i dont see the point in "debating" when you ignore evidence and just think you are right irrespective of it. I was just interested to see how far he would go and apparently its to infinity and beyond.
PS I think we are both equally flattered that you think we bring something to the debate on economic matters 😉
[quote=Junkyard ]PS I think we are both equally flattered that you think we bring something to the debate on economic matters
I presume you noted my precise wording, and pleased to see that is keeping both of you happy 😛
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Ex UK and Denmark (and Sweden) all others have (foolishly) commits to join the € area as soon as they fulfil (seriously) the conditions for entry (cough)
I thought Sweden had also committed to that? As discussed on the Scottish independence threads the latter provides the ultimate opt out for everybody. Of course ernie is also correct that political pressure transcends that sort of thing.
Sorry aracer. I was not quite precise enough! Sweden is required to join the euro (smell a fudge?) when it has passed changes to its central bank legislation and met the convergence criteria. D and UK are only ones with actual opt out.
ernie_lynch » Denmark and the UK have negotiated opt-outs from joining the Euro in the immediate future, Greece like all other EU member states did not.Like Sweden?
Like Sweden what ? ...... it's like Denmark and the UK, or like Greece and all the other EU member state?
From the EU website :
[i]"Sweden is not yet in the euro area, as it has not made the necessary changes to its central bank legislation and it does not meet the convergence criterion related to participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). However, under the Treaty, Sweden is required to adopt the euro once it fulfils the necessary conditions."[/i]
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/euro/adoption/who_can_join/index_en.htm
So Sweden is just like all the other EU member states which unlike Denmark and the UK haven't managed to negotiate a temporary opt-out from the Euro (temporary as in Denmark and the UK will be allowed to remain outside the EZ even if they meet the convergence criterion. For the time being anyway)
😳I presume you noted my precise wording,
Nope I missed it
As for Sweden I think they have to agree to do it but there is no real pressure, possibly yet*, but there is expectation
I agree we did it on the Scottish thread and was there not a quote about how the EU would not force them ?
*ah Google helped
The EU has accepted that Sweden is staying outside the eurozone on its own decision. Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for economic affairs has said that this is up to Swedish people to decide.
Also worth noting they have to join the ERM for two years to join and no one can force them to that
Given i contributed you must have meant me then 😛
I think you can argue it either way they have agreed to join if they meet the criteria but they have not agreed to take the steps to meet the criteria so it is still Swedens sovereign decision. You can argue it either way though
Nichola Sturgeon giving advice on the Greek Referendum. I would have thought the Greeks would do well not to listen to advice from a referendum loser unless it was "please avoid the mistakes we made, eg like not telling the people the truth, which of course they spotted in the end". Not surprisingly she's in favour of them getting more money, as many of posted in that other thread the "Greek model" would work for the SNP 😯
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/30/referendums-eu-leaders-greek-exit-no-vote-austerity-nicola-sturgeon#comments ]Guardian[/url]
Apologies for my part to those bored by JY and my off-topic exchanges, I don't care and I'm pretty sure JY doesn't much either. Touche JY touche 😀
Tsipras's 2 year bailout request totals €29bn and as it's to the ESM. Merkel has already said no Bundestag vote on that or anything else till after the referendum. Quite a bit of commentary that Tsipras has badly miscalculated with the referendum, no vote looks unlikely and a yes vote means he has to go sooner of later, eurozone negotiations will take time and banks will remain shut and Tsipras will be forced out of his own weak coalition even if he doesn't resign immediately as he's suggested. A no vote means long period of further negotiations with banks shut, with no money it's hard to see how the government could survive.