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At least they're not making a Drachma out of a crisis.
Chapeau
"Enjoyed" listening to Varoufakis on R4 is morning while driving up M40 - up until they bought Bloody Peston and his sources in.
Now for Europe to show its metal. How do you execute an orderly exit. There has been long enough to prepare for this. Time to help the Greeks properly now....
[i]Time to help the Greeks properly now...[/i]
I fear their version of "properly" may vary from yours, THM
(hope the hospital visit went well)
Time to help the Greeks properly now....
Whaf makes you think they will do that? Is there some aspect of Lagarde, Dijsselbloem, Schauble, Noonan, and all the rest of the sad crew that makes you think they share the tiniest gram of common human decency? They are liars and crooks to the core, and I'm sure they will continue to demonstrate that in the days to come.
True
(Crap but thanks v much)
[quote=footflaps ]Not strictly true, the emergency liquidity funding is still in place, just not extended. With capital controls / strategic bank closures they can continue for some time.
Don't they have an IMF payment which is due on Tuesday, the deadline for which won't be extended again and which they simply don't have the money to pay, hence they will be effectively bankrupt. They can't just bumble along and ignore that any more. All of which happens before the referendum, so something has to break before that.
I assume he knew that when he called it
I assume he is gambling that the EU will react
Plus pensions and salaries to pay
Funny to look back on the threads from 2-3 years ago on this topic!!
Leaving aside the poor economics and social consequences, Tsipras' final stunt was at least interesting politically. Just a shame that this is real life not a game
It's unclear what the referendum will be about next week - the offer from the Troika has been withdrawn...
I have a friend on holiday there at the moment. She's not massively into economics and current affairs so I doubt she'll have been expecting this! She's posting holiday photos on Facebook but as yet no-one's commented that the ATMs are being turned off... this is when 'economics' and real life collide
Funny to look back on the threads from 2-3 years ago on this topic!!
I think it's hilarious how they could have defaulted 5 years ago.
[url= http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3874e80-82e8-11df-8b15-00144feabdc0.html ]Greece’s best option is an orderly default[/url]
[i]"The €110bn bail-out agreed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May only delays the inevitable default and risks making it disorderly when it comes".[/i]
June 28, 2010........five years ago to the day.
Indeed the offer has gone.
My pa came back this weekend - hopefully. I did tell her to take lots of cash.
Some sweaty (don't panic ducks) Eurocrats tonight. Makes our referendum a bit silly until we know what the endgame is...
Good spot to that link Ernie. NR will be in his element now. Nowt better than a crisis for him. But as all Keynesians know, creditors also have to take the hit. Ignore the lessons of history...
aracer - MemberDon't they have an IMF payment which is due on Tuesday, the deadline for which won't be extended again
I'd be very surprised if it isn't tbh. Bet you 20p?
Varoufakis was arguing for two loans to be netted off this morning.
Interesting that is was left to Draghi to pull the plug.
Political expediency can trump the laws of economics in the short term, but the dismal science always wins in the end. Politicians who forget this truism do so at their peril 😉
[quote=Northwind ]I'd be very surprised if it isn't tbh. Bet you 20p?
Well I'm not entering into a deal with somebody with unknown liquidity.
How do you feel about relaxing your normal criteria, and overlooking obviously inaccurate figures, and then declaring it to be all my fault when in 5 years time I've not paid up?
It's Sunday night, the liquidity is a given.
Piraeus Bank CEO announced that banks will stay closed for the whole week.
[quote=Northwind ]How do you feel about relaxing your normal criteria, and overlooking obviously inaccurate figures, and then declaring it to be all my fault when in 5 years time I've not paid up?
That's sounds like a sensible idea. Only if you're going to deny all responsibility for making up the figures though.
Hold on you two you need a highly credible independent source [s] prepared to say and do anything for money [/s]know for its moral and impartial reports on accounts
Euro is free fall against Sterling and Dollar.
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[url= http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=GBPEUR ]ft euro sterling fx[/url]
Good time to buy a canyon? Every cloud and all that....
The Avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.
This will end in fire.
Very apt quotes from my favourite Vorlon.
Won't be pretty and I'm glad I'm not Greek as I'd be one of those poor b'stards camped out round the cash machine.
What happens when you cannot get cash out to pay for food or your kids proscription?
How long before the looting starts?
teamhurtmore - Member
"Enjoyed" listening to Varoufakis on R4 is morning while driving up M40 - up until they bought Bloody Peston and his sources in.Now for Europe to show its metal
Can't beat a bit of Euro metal. Mettle may be more useful, but here we go...
Yanis Varoufakis the Homer Simpson of Finance Ministers. Greek banks will be shut on Monday! I can't see how they will open after that. Guardian suggests they will be shut for a week until after the referendum. If the referendum is No I can't understand how they will open at all.
Great ride today, will catch up on the thread some other time, will be office early.
It always amazes me that in the war on terror, they always manange to foil 99.9999% of planned attacks. But in the war on drugs, they are lucky if they stop 1% of it getting through. 😆We don't see the number of incidents here as our security forces are working hard to keep us safe.
Another conundrum there is that when there was/is a real threat of domestic terrorism, ie the IRA, their success ratio was/is terrible.
Suspicous? me? Never! 😆
Either we're dealing with some really dim witted "islamic" terrorists, or threats we face are blown out of all proportion is the only conclusion i can come to there.
I hope this is the beginning of the end for the EU. Their treatment of Greece throughout this boringly elongated crisis demonstrates how little they care about the people of Europe, and how far they will go to protect the "integrity" of the EU project.
And the UK is not wholly out of the words economically, if the crisis ignites then our housing bubble could implode, with Arthur and Mildred queuing up outside the banks again.
Nothing was fixed in 2008, the can was kicked down the road.
Indeed the offer has gone.
Interesting point. If the troika thought it was a good and fair solution on Saturday, is it now no longer good and fair? If they thought it was the right thing to do one day, is it wrong the day after? Do they admit that it was just a game, and not actually a sincere attempt to find the right way forward for Greece and for the EU?
Still, let's all laugh at funny cartoons, eh?
Far bigger things to get in a sweat about THM...Since I am flying to Crete tonight 😆 I anticipate a mid air whip round for "petrol money" on the return journey.
Their treatment of Greece throughout this [b]boringly elongated [/b]crisis demonstrates how little they care about the people of Europe
boringly?
Why give Greece more cash?
They will. There will be a sudden compromise.
In 3yrs time they'll be on 500billion euros of debt. Its akin to quietly keep giving them money frightened and scared and hoping someone else will sort the problem (or more likely) it'll be another German Chancellor (etc)'s problem to tarnish their reputation in the future.
Look at Bliar- how much crap did he get for the 2008 recession? None. He went.
Northwind - MemberHow do you feel about relaxing your normal criteria, and overlooking obviously inaccurate figures, and then declaring it to be all my fault when in 5 years time I've not paid up?
Nail... head. The Germans (and everyone else) knew the Greeks (and the Italians, Portugese, Spanish) all basically made up the figures. And that they were all works of fiction. The Greeks employed Goldman Sachs to make everything look rosey. A really reputable bunch!
The EU knew it, yet they admitted them anyway because it suited them. They couldn't have anyone pointing out awkward economic realities about their grand political project now, could they?
Its like mortgage lenders and estate agents at the height of the last housing boom, issuing 100%+ 'self-certified' mortgages, where you made a claim as to how much you earned, without any prooof, and they accepted that at face value
The EU turned a blind eye to it all for reasons of political expediency, and this is the inevitable end result
It does make me laugh that people are taking sides, and looking for a good guy/bad guy narrative. There in't one. Both sides are as guilty as each other for this shambles.
They will. There will be a sudden compromise.
yep, esp if the markets keep falling. German will panic and agree to a modest haircut, just enough to keep this farce going for another year.....
It does make me laugh that people are taking sides, and looking for a good guy/bad guy narrative. There in't one. Both sides are as guilty as each other for this shambles.
Yep, they're both as stupid as each other. Locked into an abusive marriage which neither has the guts to call time on.
The EU knew it, yet they admitted them anyway because it suited them. They couldn't have anyone pointing out awkward economic realities about their grand political project now, could they?
Only two EU countries satisfied the convergence criteria for the Euro before it was launched in 1999, Luxemburg and Finland, all the others failed. Germany failed on two criteria - budget deficit and debt. The rules were bent for everyone, including for France and Germany, not just Greece.
Its all about degrees though, isn't it ernie?
Greece is showing just how far outside the criteria it really was. I rememeber reading that the main reason Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro was that he could see how far Italy was away from satisfying the conditions, yet was still being let in. That convinced him the whole thing was being made up as they went along.
And here we are.....
Can you imagine where this country would be now if we'd have been in the Euro and not been able to devalue the currency, and been relient on those who have been demonstrating their detatchment from reality for the last 5 years, and slavish following of idealogical dogma, regardless of the consequences?
and been relient on those who have been demonstrating their detatchment from reality for the last 5 years, and slavish following of idealogical dogma, regardless of the consequences?
That equally applies to any Tory minister, IDS and the poor must be punished or Osbourne and we must cut our way to growth!
IDS and the poor must be punished
I thought it was 'the poor must die quietly without anyone creating too much fuss' ?
[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/11/statistics-refused-benefits-death_n_7561918.html ]DWP Block Release Of Figures On Number Of People Dying After Benefits Stopped[/url]
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I thought it was 'the poor must die quietly without anyone creating too much fuss' ?
Wasn't that a manifesto commitment?
Or was it tax credits for pushing disabled people under buses? Can't recall.
I thought it was to do with legalising peasant hunting, as a substitute for foxes.
I thought it was to do with legalising peasant hunting, as a substitute for foxes.
That will just kill the highly profitable peasant disposal industry that has grown up to support illegal peasant hunting. I know they pay no tax but it's good for the economy. It's far cheaper than a war which is the traditional way of thinning the poor.
I'm not surprised that the DWP "blocked" the request for data on the number of claimants who died within 6 weeks of their benefits being blocked as anyone with half a brain can quite quickly see the administrative nightmare that would be created in coming up with data that was even halfway usable.
anyone with half a brain can quite quickly see the administrative nightmare that would be created in coming up with data
They have already previously come up with the data, so obviously not that difficult. Read the link 💡
[i]Data released by the government in 2012 showed that 10,600 people in the UK died between January and November 2011 once their benefits had been stopped. However, the up-to-date statistics have yet to be made public.
After a freedom of information request, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), an independent authority set up to uphold public information rights, agreed that there was no reason not to publish the figures.
"Given the passage of time and level of interest in the information it is difficult to understand how the DWP could reasonably withhold the requested information," The ICO said.[/i]
Presumably you think that everyone who works in the Information Commissioner's Office has less than half a brain ?
Question. If Greece do leave the euro, and go back to the drachma, does that not just leave them in more of a world of shit? I wouldn't imagine that their debt would just magically dissapear. So with a Drachma that's worth next to nothing, surely their debt(or their ability to pay rather) would just spiral even further?
Or would the debt and the greek government just continue working in yoyo?
I think that's what default means - declaring yourself bankrupt effectively?
I thought it was just missing a payment? (I can't claim to have a scooby tbh! 😆 ) Though I think, iceland for example, are still having to pay back their debt?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong here?
Is the data properly coded with stuff like cause of death - suicide, accident, pigeon attack etc? - if not then it's a useful stick to beat ministers with, but otherwise not very informative.
10,600 does seem like a hefty number, and having published it previously, it's hard to make a case for not publishing it now.
Good point. What happens next?
If you're bankrupt as a country does the debt get wiped? Do they just get a really rubbish credit rating and can't get any loans etc?
If they default, then Germany sends the boys round...
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And this will be their only source of funding....
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The drachma or whatever they called their new currency would plummet like a stone, and they would not be able to afford to import essentials like fuel, they wouldn't even be able to provide power to the country.
There will be blackouts riots and looting, and we will have a third world country in Europe. History shows that countries placed under these conditions will often give rise to fascist political movement.
Frankly anyone who thinks that Greece leaving the euro will provide a guiding light to a land of milk and honey for other nations to follow is insane. If anything it would terrify other nations into towing the line for fear they may end up in the same hell hole.
Lots of countries have come through debt defaults without resorting to anarchy....
If you're bankrupt as a country does the debt get wiped? Do they just get a really rubbish credit rating and can't get any loans etc?
[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring ]This?[/url]
I think the German Finance Minister is a little scarier than Big Vern binners.
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I keep expecting him to ask "is it safe ?"
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.
There will be blackouts riots and looting, and we will have a third world country in Europe. History shows that countries placed under these conditions will often give rise to fascist political movement.
The social fabric won't collapse in Greece. There will be no Fascist takeover.
Lots of countries have come through debt defaults without resorting to anarchy....
I think we're in unchartered territory here though - with a country going bust while being part of a common currency, and having to start from scratch with a new/old one. That sounds like a recipe for anarchy to me. How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?
List of sovereign debt defaultors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default#List_of_sovereign_debt_defaults_or_debt_restructuring
a good review of the default process/drachma
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/what-would-happen-case-grexit
If Greece wouldn’t have already defaulted before it would introduce a new currency, Grexit would make it virtually certain that the country would default. It’s not wise to take out a considerable loan in a foreign currency, but that’s what Greece has done since 2001, when it entered the Eurozone. If Greece would introduce a new currency, which then likely would lose value against the euro, it would still need to pay back its debt in euro, which woud appreciate in value as compared to the new Drachma, making this task even harder.If Greece would only pay back what it owes in a new, devalued currency, this would be considered a default. As a result, the Greek government would face higher borrowing rates in the future. In theory, the fact that it wouldn’t be burdened by an excessive 180% debt to GDP may serve as a factor countering this, giving that the financial situation of the government would look more rosy.
All aboard the 2015 Bitcoin bubble!How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?
I just need to remember to actually sell them once they get valuable this time...
The social fabric won't collapse in Greece. There will be no Fascist takeover.
This. It seems to me that there's a certain amount of doom-mongering and hysteria being peddled which fits the interests of the creditors. Their only leverage is the fear of what will happen post-default. It will be bad of course, but the question that should be asked is who will it be bad for? For those who are already impoverished, which is a sizeable proportion of the population, it makes little difference. [url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/23/greece-solidarity-movement-cooperatives-syriza ]In lots of ways, it could be the start of something much better.[/url]
How do you establish a new currency with your entire economy in freefall?
Given that just about everyone has withdrawn all they own in Cash, they can continue for a while using a Euro Black market whilst they start printing Drachmas, then they'll end up running both in parallel for ages as no one will want Drachmas.
The wildcard is just how badly the EU, the IMF and the ECB choose to behave. You never know, they might do OK but honestly I think the big motivator is going to be "Make sure everyone else shites themselves".
What if the population vote yes - then there will be some "fun and games"
Why don't they just declare themselves bankrupt, write off all their debts, then start up next week under a different name?
I works a treat for the bathroom shop down the road from me.
teamhurtmore - Member
Tsipras' final stunt was at least interesting politically.
So interesting that he is backtracking already. To repeat...
Just a shame that this is real life not a game
Poor show all round. Where is the mettle ( 😳 ) ?
Junker not happy, called Tsipras dishonest. At least all the handshake and smiling b/s for the cameras has stopped.
Greeks vote no - euro exit, EU to follow ?
Greeks vote yes - Syriza not credible negotiating team, cannot realistically stay in Government, new elections, continued delay, euro exit and Greeks beg to stay in the EU ?
A Yes vote could see a "solidarity" government formed with no Syriza representation at the negotiations but either way a Greek exit looks increasingly likely. El-Erian thinks its 85% likely (seems high to me)
I have accused jamba of not knowing what the heck he is talking about. Having read Juncker's speech just now, I have to say that he is not the worst offender. I think the OXI campaign are currently pissing themselves laughing and their vote will reach North Korea levels.
Is it just me, or does "You should not commit suicide because you're afraid of death", not make any sense at all? Anyway a stupid intervention. I reckon Juncker just put the seal on the likely referendum result.
Is it just me, or does "You should not commit suicide because you're afraid of death", not make any sense at all?
Esepcially dumb to say that to a society which is concerned about the rise in suicides due to economic hardship.
Charming comment from Juncker to the Greek population in his speech today referring to the referendum: "You should not commit suicide because you are afraid of death", that's disgusting.
I must admit I don't really know where my sentiments lie on the whole thing, both sides are hugely at fault for this, some kind of end game is needed as the can kicking has to stop. As such I suppose a Greek exit / default may be the best thing for them. Boy am I glad we didn't adopt the Euro!
I am not sure which is more surreal - the €100m cost of the referendum or the actual question that is going to be posed
Nice little starter for ten for Yannis.
'Should the draft agreement submitted by the EC, ECB, IMF at the Eurogroup on June 25 which consists of two parts that make up their full proposal be accepted? The first document is titled 'Reforms for the completion of the current program and beyond' and the second 'Preliminary debt sustainability analysis'Respondents will be asked a simple yes or no.
It really is that simple!!
And Stiglitz having a good (and this time correct) dig
It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. [b]But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. [/b]The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.
It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018.
As the Torygraph pointed out this morning, these bunch of clowns are also doing a stirling job on behalf of the NO! wing of the Tory party and UKIP, who I imagine will be keeping quiet and leaving them to do their referendum campaigning on their behalf
But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned.
Haven't leaned what? To me while the Euro zone hasn't covered it self in glory, the reality is that Greece has never come up with a sensible plan to tackle it's problems. It desperately needed to find a way of lower public expenditure, increase private enterprise and ensure it collected taxes, none of the suggestions I saw put forward gave proper solutions to these.
Junker not happy, called Tsipras dishonest.
Well I am getting close to this but lets try this one more time shall we.
Are you still maintaining that the factually incorrect statement is correct ?
Its easy to be 100 % correct if you behave like this 🙄
Who needs credibility anyway when one can just ignore the points made* 😕
* I do so hope you do a TJ and say you answered the question 😛
EDIT: on reflection a Paxman answer the question to Howard works just as well for me
stirling job
Boom, tish!
Well Stiglitz is first and foremost a Keynesian economist although he often misses the crux of what JMK said but that's another issue. So the lessons - (1) creditors have to take a hit too (not his main point); and (his main point) it's absurd to try to run a primary surplus at the height of a recession. How we got to this topsy-turvey position is another point altogether.
He misses the fundamental issue ie, that under the fixed exchange rate and without fiscal union, Greece was always terminally screwed from the outset. It has only ever been a matter of time before social unrest tipped the balance. The only outcome was to screw the young and the low paid, which is why it's odd that so-called lefties failed to spot this obvious outcome.
It desperately needed to find a way of lower public expenditure, increase private enterprise and ensure it collected taxes, none of the suggestions I saw put forward gave proper solutions to these.
Well, as YV pointed out at his very first EZ meeting, these objectives cannot all be achieved at the same time as servicing huge debts. It's like a simple law of physics. Unfortunately the finmins are either too dumb or too selfish to see the obvious.
Or they ignore economic history - quite hard if you are German. You don't have to go back too far!!
I don't think Keynes ever advocated public spending in a recession to be on people pushing paper that the government can't get rid of. If you are going to go all Keynesian it's about using public funds to support projects that add to the country and tie over private enterprise e.g. building power stations.
As I understand it the creditors have already taken a hit. But even if they take another hit, then I've seen no numbers on what a sensible number would be. Plus at the end of the day unless the Greeks get a grip on their own finances then it makes no difference as the Greeks will still need to keep borrowing.
He misses the fundamental issue ie, that under the fixed exchange rate and without fiscal union, Greece was always terminally screwed from the outset.
That's how it is when you borrow from the Mafia. Syriza were naive and imagined that the creditors would discuss the problem and solutions, when in fact they just wanted to inflict defeat on a non-conforming government.
I don't think Keynes ever advocated public spending in a recession to be on people pushing paper that the government can't get rid of.
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman
It's like a simple law of physics
No it's not, if you knew anything about physics you'd realise it really isn't. The Greek government have room to start reducing public expenditure on stuff like pensions and public sector pay and using that money to pump into the private side of the economy. If they came up with a credible plan, then I think they may get somewhere with asking for a haircut for the creditors. No credible plan, no debt relief simple.