Why give Greece mor...
 

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[Closed] Why give Greece more cash?

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Not being a graduate if the LSE, im at a loss to try to understand why on earth we (europe) would entertain any plan from Greece to pump more money into their economy.. Can anyone put into layman's terms why this is the case?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:09 am
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I think thats the whole point...... in order for us to LOAN them more money, they need to demonstrate that they are fiscally responsible.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:11 am
 teef
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The money isn't going into the Greek economy it goes to the French and German Banks that lent them money in the first place. It's not so much a Greek bailout but another bank bailout.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:15 am
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I'm fairly sure the usual plan b or letting them go broke and sending in the bailiffs won't work. If Greece goes then the chance of seeing anything gets much lower. It's keeping them running in hope that they can patch the holes and get back afloat.

I wonder how many of the people on the streets being interviewed protesting paid close to the right amount of tax...


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:17 am
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Seems the government says they can be but practically, for the people of Greece, this this may require sacrifices they are not prepared to make


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:19 am
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The money isn't going into the Greek economy it goes to the French and German Banks that lent them money in the first place. It's not so much a Greek bailout but another bank bailout.

Well, yes - they are borrowing money to service loans, but it's loans that they have already received yes.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:21 am
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listening to an interview just now on BBCR4 this morning, I was struck by the similarity in the argument between Greek debt and some butterfly habitats.

Mandmade landscapes have encouraged butterfly species to thrive and adapt to a very specific set of environmental conditions that might not otherwise be naturally occurring.

But those environments being not naturally formed must be maintained by man or the habitat is lost and the butterfly colonies would die.

Those that create an environment in which others have adapted to live, have a duty of care not to destroy that habit, and even maintain it.

The interviewee emphasised the recognition that Greece taking full advantage of "German Sovereign Debt pricing" of their own € loans was not a natural phenomenon. Things will and are changing. But if the Euro system pulls the synthetic habitat from them with no recognition of what that environment created, then they are ignoring their obligations and duties to what they created.

The Common currency created the Greek problem. They were told it would happen. They did not modify the design to reduce the risk. This is the bed they made 16 years ago.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:23 am
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What happens, practically speaking, if Greece can't pay? Do we repossess it, turf them all out and sell it to Russia or something?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:30 am
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The Common currency created the Greek problem. They were told it would happen. They did not modify the design to reduce the risk. This is the bed they made 16 years ago.

Did it? (Genuine question) Because when we used to go there on holiday 30 years ago, one of the local residents explained that the reason they all left the rebar ends sticking out the top of their houses was to avoid a tax that was levied only when the building was complete.

not being snarky - my impression was that the culture of tax evasion/avoidance has been around for a while


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:32 am
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What happens, practically speaking, if Greece can't pay? Do we repossess it, turf them all out and sell it to Russia or something?

Not quite. I reckon Russia might offer to sort out Greece's mess in return for a few military bases on Greek territory though.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:36 am
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If you owe your lender £1,000,000 and have trouble repaying it, you are in trouble. If the amount is £1,000,000,000,000 they are in trouble...

I hope the Greeks default and bring whole euro sham crashing down.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:38 am
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Well said Stoner!


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:44 am
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I hope the Greeks default and bring whole euro sham crashing down.

Because that will have no effect on the rest of Europe or the world will it.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:46 am
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Europe is being done by Europe not for Europe (the people) politicians no longer listen to the electorate they believe there uni degrees give them carte blanche to do as the see fit.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:47 am
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Because that will have no effect on the rest of Europe or the world will it.

As opposed to the risk-free strategy of pumping billions of Euros into a bankrupt country just so your banks can claim that their previous pumping of billions of Euros into a bankrupt country has paid off. Rinse and repeat.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:50 am
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Did it? (Genuine question) Because when we used to go there on holiday 30 years ago, one of the local residents explained that the reason they all left the rebar ends sticking out the top of their houses was to avoid a tax that was levied only when the building was complete.

Perhaps, rather than butterflies, the Greeks could be compared to Pandas - determined to live and carry out their financial affairs without any attempt to adapt to the reality of situation/habitat they find themselves in.

The Euro is very much at fault in the current crisis - it was always a triumph of political will and ego over the laws of economics, but the Greeks have not really attempted to become a European country- having continued with corruption, tax evasion and voting for whomever feathered their nests the best whilst ignoring the reality that it was all done on a 0% balance transfer credit card.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:51 am
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Well the collapse of the Euro won't be a nice thing to be around..... neither is risk free, just the risks of one probably greatly outweigh the risks of the other.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:52 am
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The money isn't going into the Greek economy it goes to the French and German Banks that lent them money in the first place. It's not so much a Greek bailout but another bank bailout.

This ^^^

The money that normal men/women on the street are being screwed for is paying off interest, not the capital, it does not go into the Greek economy to improve infrastructure or pay for collapsing health/social services..People moan about the NHS, pray you never have to use a Greek public hospital.


I wonder how many of the people on the streets being interviewed protesting paid close to the right amount of tax...

^^This is the easy thing to point the finger at, the average man/woman on the street are PAYE, they don't have a way of screwing Taxes, it's taken from source. And again, this is why people (probably like most of us on here) are very upset, because they were always paying their taxes and they have been hit the hardest because they were easy targets. I saw my take home salary drop by nearly 300 euro's a month in extra taxes, not to mention, taxes being backdated by a year, so I had to pay even more on top, plus paying extra luxury tax because my car was a 2000CC engine....I don't think you could class a 5 year old S-Max as a luxury motor..but hay, still cost me an extra 500 odd euros a year...on top of the road tax, which again, was around the 400-500 mark.

There are lots of dodgy taxes by private business owners, Dr's Lawyers etc...but these are hardly the average bods on the streets.

The Government (pretty much most parties) and the tax collection services are corrupt to the core...that's where the problem lies, the people, no matter what party they vote in get screwed.

Stoner....wise words mate, you've hit the nail on the head.

Politicians (Greek and EU with the bankers in the background) have created a situation which they now realise is a complete and utter balls up...In their quest for ultimate power they have created a monster they cannot control or is capable of existing in a stable state.

Countries have issues with certain areas that are financial wastelands and they have problems sorting those places out.....

Hey, maybe I'm just too simplistic about these things, but whoever thought you'd be able to put a mega economy such as German's together with a much smaller Greek economy really didn't think things through. From the very beginning they have bent rules and tried to plaster over the cracks to make something work, which, with all the good will in the World, won't.

Who suffers, the man/woman on the street, who just wants to work and provide for his/her family.....

That's why people really are fed up. I lived there for 9 years, I put up with the financial worry and stress for 3 years and it was hell. Another 3 years have passed since I left and I can fully understand the pressure and worry it's put on the people. They have had a knife to their throats for 6 years.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:56 am
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Well the collapse of the Euro won't be a nice thing to be around..... neither is risk free, just the risks of one probably greatly outweigh the risks of the other.

I totally agree about the risks, just not about which option is on which side of the balance. The risks of a Greek exit possibly outweigh the risks of just giving them more money [i]at this present point in time[/i]. Give it another couple of bouts of kicking the can down the road and I suspect a Greek default and the resultant EZ fallout will be much, much more palatable than the alternative, i.e. a crash of the entire world banking system.

Where do you think the money comes from to extend Greece's death throes?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:56 am
 DrJ
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Not being a graduate if the LSE

Well, that is no impediment to being a finance minister of an EU country (step forward Irish former school teacher Michael Noonan) or indeed president of the Eurozone (step forward Dutch non-Cork economics graduate Jeroen Dijsselbloem). Indeed in that post you can then give lectures to university economics professors (Varoufakis) and Oxford PPE graduates (Tsakalotos). You can hobnob with IMF chiefs like Rato (arrested for fraud) and Strauss-Kahn (arrested for rape). The future is yours!!

Oh, as to your question - basically what growinglad said.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:02 am
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Why are they so insistent on bailing out Greece?

Because if Greece goes under, the tide will soon be lapping at the doors of Spain and Italy...


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:09 am
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I heard it described as a humanitarian disaster, not an economic crisis last week. That adds a whole new perspective on things and the help the Greek people need.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:11 am
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When Greece goes under it'll be cut loose, re adopt the Drak and move on in it's own sleepy way like it did before the EU took over. Don't forget they have benefited from EU handouts, enabled the country to absorb itself in the gravy train of handouts and infrastructure projects.

If it was me, I'd send the Bailiffs in.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:17 am
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If the EU don't bail out Greece that nice Mr. Putin is waiting with his wallet open. I imagine that has some relevance to the discussions.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:19 am
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Do folk really believe that (for instance) leaving buildings with bits sticking out is ultimately responsible for the mess we're watching?

Extraordinary. Given the reams and reams of news print and web pages you can read on subject?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:20 am
 MSP
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Not being a graduate if the LSE

Good for you, economists are part writers of fiction and part Darren Brown's lottery prediction trick. They are about as close to science and fact as homoeopathy practitioners.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:22 am
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The Common currency created the Greek problem

Hardly! Greece should not have been accepted in as their economy and political system did not pass the stringent criteria at the time. There was a great deal of fudging to allow this to happen. They were in difficulties at the time and the Euro offered them a chance to continue and avoid reform for a number of years and they have only been able to stay solvent by being bankrolled by Europe.
Reform has been too slow and the rest of Europe has become frustrated with the pace. The fact that people at the "bottom" are feeling the pinch is very sad but not untypical. Despite some pension reforms over recent years they started from a bad position and have only changed it partly.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:24 am
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Do folk really believe that (for instance) leaving buildings with bits sticking out is ultimately responsible for the mess we're watching?

Well trying to distill it into one thing doesn't create a strong counter argument. It is/was one very clear indication of quite a significant failure.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:27 am
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[i]Reform has been too slow / and have only changed it partly.[/i]

again, do your research? 😕


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:29 am
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do your research?

Rebuffed by the copiousness of yours 🙂 Why dont you try to provide your own instead ?

Apparently if

leaving buildings with bits sticking out is ultimately responsible for the mess we're watching?
is not part of the problem then what is?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:36 am
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Not being a graduate if the LSE

Judging by the grasp of economics desmonstrated by the spokeswoman for the Greek government on Five Live yeterday, I wouldn't trust her to nip down to Aldi for a few essentials, and manage to work out the change.It was all a bit...

Kenneth Clarke, who is very pro-Europe, but anto-Euro, summed up yesterday, in one sentence, the whole problem with the common currency and Greece (and most of southern Europe, come to that)...

"Whoever lent the Greeks all that money at interest rates based on economic figures for the German economy, must have been out of their minds"


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:38 am
 DrJ
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Judging by the grasp of economics desmonstrated by the spokeswoman for the Greek government on Five Live yeterday, I wouldn't trust her to nip down to Aldi for a few essentials, and manage to work out the change.It was all a bit...

On the contrary - it has been the Greek side which has actually addressed the real economic problem(*), as opposed to the troika who have just made a random shopping list of things to cut, with the opposite results to what they forecast.

(*) eg http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/06/18/greeces-proposals-to-end-the-crisis-my-intervention-at-todays-eurogroup


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:42 am
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For balance DrJ - I wouldn't trust any of the other lot to nip down to Aldi for a few essentials, and manage to work out the change either. 😉

But seriously, it was quite staggering how clueless she was about the simple fundamentals of the situation Greece was in


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:48 am
 DrJ
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But seriously, it was quite staggering how clueless she was about the simple fundamentals of the situation Greece was in

I didn't hear the piece, so I don't know who you're referring to, but as I noted above, the Greek side does not lack qualified economists, as opposed to the EZ amateurs.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:51 am
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I think we can agree DrJ that whoever came up with the initial suggestion of having a common currency that would work for both the economies of Germany and Greece should have been taken outside and given a shoeing for being so bloody stupid, not alllowed to dictate the future economic policy for an entire contitinent


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:58 am
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DrJ - Member

On the contrary - it has been the Greek side which has actually addressed the real economic problem(*), as opposed to the troika who have just made a random shopping list of things to cut, with the opposite results to what they forecast.

The thing that mystifies me, is that the IMF admitted they got their maths and their assumptions, and that the cuts they forced on greece in the initial bailout were counterproductive and damaging. No surprise to many but supposedly a surprise to them. And then they say "But pay us money anyway for the damage we caused", and they're still in the driving seat. Surely the right thing to do is work out the cost of those errors- however many tens of billions of quid it may be- and knock it off the debt?

It's like the bike shop that trashed your bike demanding that you pay extra to repair the damage they did- and then afterwards, still being the only people allowed to work on your bike.

The big problem is, the damage has been done now so Greece are left with either trying to deal with that, or defaulting in a worse position than they were in 2010. The people who gained don't care, and the people most responsible for it are immune to criticism.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:04 am
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Well said Stoner!

Has to be post of the day!


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:12 am
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Latest footage in of the Greek negotiating team at work:


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:13 am
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Surfer, guilty as charged 😳

It just astonishes me that the oft repeated tropes about Greek laziness and tax avoidance are cited as soley why Greece finds itself in the situation it now does.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:24 am
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[url= http://www.cityam.com/218456/eu-dead-grexit-crisis-has-laid-bare-europe-s-inability-rescue-itself ]John Hulsman analysis[/url]


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:29 am
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The big problem is, the damage has been done now so Greece are left with either trying to deal with that, or defaulting in a worse position than they were in 2010. The people who gained don't care, and the people most responsible for it are immune to criticism.

Fortunately, it's mostly poor people who speak a funny language who are affected, so I don't think it matters does it?

So long as the nice rich people get their money back, it's all fine, surely?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:34 am
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+1 for Stoner - echoed in the Hulsman analysis.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:35 am
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oldnpastit - Member

Fortunately, it's mostly poor people who speak a funny language who are affected, so I don't think it matters does it?

It's all right, we can just say it's their fault for spending beyond their means- even the ones who weren't born, they should have made better arrangements and been born into a rich family in Britain.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:38 am
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Greece spent the money propping up some pretty unsustainable polices and papering over their long term problems

Historic high levels of inflation
Lack of economic policy credibility, pensions, tax collection etc
Greek governments have run excessive budget deficits even in the good times
Lack of competitiveness of the Greek economy
Extremely large and inefficient public administration sector

None of which arent problems in other countries but once the world wide crisis hit 08 - 09 the Greeks werent in a good position to weather the storm because of their long term unaddressed underlying problems.

Without significant meaningful financial reform they should not get any more cash


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:48 am
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stoners post? what the one with the pretty butterfly analogy?

turn that round and someone creates an environment where rats thrive, do they still have a obligation to maintain that environment?

stoners piece should be prefaced with "One might say....."


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:52 am
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meow. Someone's not getting any grilled haloumi tonight then.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:54 am
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You might also ask the same question of UK consumers - why give us more debt (particularly mortgages) when we're in it up to our necks...

Europe has an ageing population, real economic growth stopped in the late 70s as the post-war baby boom (population growth) and re-growth of the economy after we wrecked it in WW2 came to an end.
Governments have given us debt to replace previously rising incomes to help give the electorate an illusion of rising wealth and rising living standards. We didn't realise this was what they were doing at the time and have swallowed it whole, hence massive amounts of personal and government debt and, as Manic Street Preachers put it in 1991 in 'Natwest, Barclays, Midlands, Lloyds' - 'They're sanitising credit'.

Greece is just the canary in the coalmine IMO - the most vulnerable of the debt-laden countries. Italy, Spain, Portgual, UK not ideally placed right now either.

Scarily, the Chinese seem to have got themselves into a debt-laden speculative mess too... failing to learn the lessons of our mistakes.

Fingers crossed that we'll be able to progress softly into a low-growth world, it's going to take some serious skill on behalf of policy-makers to avoid a repeat (possibly worse) of 2008, which in itself was a sign of the underlying problem, rather than the problem itself...

None of this asks the question of how to finance feeding and housing a fast-rising global population (with expectations of a Western middle-class lifestyle) as well as meeting the costs of climate change...


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:58 am
 DrJ
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Without significant meaningful financial reform they should not get any more cash

They have proposed significant reforms, but the troika prefer a political approach - trying to start a bank run, undermining the Syriza govt, using the EC as a propaganda voice etc.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:13 am
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The money isn't going into the Greek economy it goes to the French and German Banks that lent them money in the first place. It's not so much a Greek bailout but another bank bailout.

@teef TOTALLY wrong. Banks took big losses in 2010 and the vast majority of the debt passed to the EU and IMF, banks have not had loans to Greece now for years and they are not going to return as lenders in the near future. Greece is supported by the tax payers of the eurozone ie including countries like Slovakia who have lent €1bn

More money is being lent to the Greeks so they can pay their wages and pensions

It's highly unlikely Greece can repay this money. The EU and IMF want to see Greece make some reforms to labour laws, pensions, tax collection as a condition for lending them more money so that there is some kind of chance Greece reforms. Otherwise the pace at which Greek debt grows will just accelerate.

DrJ Greece has NOT proposed significant reforms, the the contrary they have promised jack sh.t


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:23 am
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Interesting viewpoint here:
[url= http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/06/22/the-eus-disgraceful-treatment-of-greece ]http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/06/22/the-eus-disgraceful-treatment-of-greece[/url]


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:26 am
 DrJ
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DrJ Greece has NOT proposed significant reforms, the the contrary they have promised jack sh.t

Not the case. For example:
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/06/18/greeces-proposals-to-end-the-crisis-my-intervention-at-todays-eurogroup/

The EU and IMF want to see Greece make some reforms to labour laws, pensions, tax collection as a condition for lending them more money so that there is some kind of chance Greece reforms. Otherwise the pace at which Greek debt grows will just accelerate.

Again, not the case. The EU and IMF don't agree on what should happen - the IMF position is that without debt forgiveness then regardless of what the Greeks do the debt will be unsustainable. The EU position, doubtless politically motivated, is that debt forgiveness is off the table, so the chances of growth are diminished even more.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:30 am
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[i](and assume the gormless Marxist fantasists in Syriza will never embrace real structural reform)[/i]

From that Mark Hulsman article 😯


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:48 am
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Mandmade landscapes have encouraged butterfly species to thrive and adapt to a very specific set of environmental conditions that might not otherwise be naturally occurring.
But those environments being not naturally formed must be maintained by man or the habitat is lost and the butterfly colonies would die.

1. Are humans not part of nature?
2. How did the butterflies evolve if they needed traditional farming landscape in order to survive?
3. More holes than a collander.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 10:52 am
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Greece is going to default at some point. The only issue in question is the timing in relation to any economic recovery in the rest of the EU, and in particular whether Spain and Italy can be prevented from subsequently spinning down the same debt and austerity plughole. I personally think this is a forlorn hope.

It would be in the interests of the Greek people to default to its own timetable, rather than wait for the Germans to pull the plug.

The McWilliams article linked above deserves a wider audience.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 11:09 am
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Apparently Greece sent the wrong document last night, if true then they are either ****ing stupid beyond belief or too clever for their own good.

Anyone know what the UK and the USA positions is on the whole thing? Both governments have been remarkably quiet apart from general platitudes like wanting to keep Greece in the Euro. I assume that the BofE and Fed are kept in the loop, and possibly that GCHQ and NSA have tapped the whole thing. But are government mandarins more active in being directly involved in negotiations?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 11:12 am
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Anyone know what the UK and the USA positions is on the whole thing? Both governments have been remarkably quiet apart from general platitudes like wanting to keep Greece in the Euro

We're not on the hook for anything like the Greek debt that Germany and France are. And obviously, though the collapse of the Euro won't be pretty for anyone, we've a lot less to lose than those presently members.

I don't think us, or the Americans, chipping in with any advice would be greatly appreciated. Leave them to sort out their own mess, and hope that when it does go tits up - and lets be honest it will do at some point, whether thats today, in 6 months or 2 years time - that the fall out is to at least a certain degree, contained.

Wishful thinking, I know. But I don't see what anyone outside the Euro could usefully add. Apart from pouring more cash into the bottomless EU money pit. And that ain't going to happen. George Osborne made that perfectly clear 5 years ago

EEK! This would be why Germany and France are a tad worried. Us not so much....

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 11:24 am
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1. Are humans not part of nature?
2. How did the butterflies evolve if they needed traditional farming landscape in order to survive?
3. More holes than a collander.

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=0snnF3vwVO4C&q=232#v=snippet&q=232&f=false

Page 232.
Hole, plugged 😉


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 3:24 pm
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As far as I understand it (which isn't a lot):

Lots of companies have money in Greek banks. If the Greeks leave the Euro, these deposits will be converted into Drachma which will then drop like a stone causing a huge sum of other people's money to vanish.

Which is why it'd be bad.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 3:30 pm
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I think it's more that lots of financial institutions have, either directly or indirectly, given Greece A LOT of money with the assumption that it will be paid back with interest. They have in turn packaged up this assumed interest as further debt instruments and sold them on, etc., etc., and so the money trail expands like a Sierpinski fractal until half the world is involved in some way or another.

If Greece leaves the Euro, it will mean none of the original loan money will ever be paid back, which means none of the repackaged debt instruments will be paid either, and a lot of financial institutions will be in a lot of trouble.

But then, I don't understand much of it either. If I did, I'd be making a killing on the international derivatives market. Or something.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 4:05 pm
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anyone who really (and I mean [i]really[/i]) wants to see one way of how a GREXIT might be pulled off, can read Capital Economics' winning paper for the Wolfson Prize in 2012 called "Leaving the Euro: A practical guide"

page 42 for the introduction of a new currency, and summarised:

? Redenominate all contractual nominal values at an official
conversion rate of 1-for-1, including all bank deposits and loans
with Greek resident financial institutions (including the Greek
branches of foreign banks).

? Order printing of new notes and minting of new coins as soon as
exit is announced but accept that there will be a period without new
physical currency.

? Rely on non-cash means of payment for the vast majority of
transactions.

? Allow euros to continue to be used where people so wish, and
permit dual pricing.

? Close the banks and ATMs, and prevent any bank transactions, once
the announcement of euro withdrawal is made.

? Avoid more drastic controls on financial institutions and
transactions. But if news leaks outs early, impose wider capital
controls and move quickly to exit.

? Treat all withdrawals of euros from banks and ATMs after D-Day as
a foreign currency transaction debited from drachma accounts
according to the prevailing exchange rate


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 4:26 pm
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@molgrips only a company in need of a lobotamy would have money in a Greek bank. To be honest I am surpirsed deposits have only fallen from €140bn to €100bn since Syriza came to power.

Intereting language this evening, Greeks claiming there will be a deal and German finance minister saying there's nothing new. Meeting once again lasted only an hour. From what I've seen hotel vat wont raise that much and I suspect corporate and personal taxe rises will go largely unpaid. I'd be very surprised if the numbers work or come close to it. Greek pensions are 16% of GDP vs 8.3% for UK. The government needs to address what its paying out.

IMO both the UK and US want to see a solution as 1 that doesnt cost thrm anything other than their shares of the IMF debt and 2 a greek exit and euro area economic slwdown would hurt their economies


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 6:25 pm
 DrJ
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German finance minister saying there's nothing new

But that is clearly a lie, since other hawks, such as Dijsselbloem, say the opposite.

Greek pensions are 16% of GDP vs 8.3% for UK

Yes, but the GDP is much less, thanks to the troika's policies. Now pensions are often a family's only income, with many people with no hope of a job taking early retirement which consequently pushes up the costs of pensions.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 6:30 pm
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Page 232.
Hole, plugged

Care to explain as it suggests to me the species were all present prior to agriculture hence your original post being bobbins. Doesnt even attempt to address point 1.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 6:33 pm
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FFS A_A, are the summer term blues getting to you or something?

Where a synthetically created environment encourages a dependant existence, there's a duty on those that create that environment to those dependent upon it on it's withdrawal. The analogy still stands.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 6:53 pm
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How can you have a synthetically created environment? You talk like a first year undergrad and strop like a 3 year old.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:32 pm
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One simple fact, they spent the money therefore they are required to repay it. Lets not dress it up.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:36 pm
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How can you have a synthetically created environment?

Erm, quite easily, really.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 7:44 pm
 DrJ
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One simple fact, they spent the money therefore they are required to repay it. Lets not dress it up.

Ideally, yes, but the fact on the ground is that this is not possible. The question therefore is, what is the best way to proceed? How can Greece best be returned to economic health, in which it can repay at least some of the debt? Is it by crushing austerity, which has been shown for 5 years to be a failure, or by some more intelligent approach, which is actually based on evidence and not punitive dogma?


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 8:51 pm
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Certainly not, tied into a fixed exchange rate, with a requirement to produce a budget surplus and without any fiscal transfers - only a magician could pull that out if the bag and neither Tsipras nor Varoufakis are magicians.

Given that the Troika are full of trained economics, their grasp of basic theory is extraordinarily lacking. There is no way that Greece can deliver what is required. It's BS.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 9:31 pm
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At this point it looks like a game of prisoners dilemma - either party could walk away with everything (leaving the other with nothing) if the one or the other blinks (the question is then who will blink first) or both parties could leave with something - which is perhaps better than nothing. The reality is, neither side can afford to leave with nothing so both must leave with something - except that now Greece has a leader who seems willing to go all in and Merkel looks to be doing the same.


 
Posted : 22/06/2015 11:02 pm
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When do you think they will reach Australia if they keep on digging? 😆


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 12:13 am
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How can you have a synthetically created environment?
Erm, quite easily, really.

Care to expand on that or give an example?


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 5:18 am
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Stoner - Member
anyone who really (and I mean really) wants to see one way of how a GREXIT might be pulled off, can read Capital Economics' winning paper for the Wolfson Prize in 2012 called "Leaving the Euro: A practical guide"

and there was me thinking the plan was to change the name of the airport/country and pretend none of it ever happened

When do you think they will reach Australia if they keep on digging?

Given the size of the Greek population in some areas in Oz from post war migration I'd expect a lot more to be very close (not in a Total Recall kind of a way)


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 5:30 am
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Care to expand on that or give an example?

take away the goldfish bowl and see how long the goldfish lasts.

Im not sure which is more fatuous: My goldfish example or your determination to spoil for a fight over a whimsical analogy?


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 7:02 am
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Im not sure which is more fatuous: My goldfish example or your determination to spoil for a fight over a whimsical analogy?

so its whimsical now even though you are determined to try and defend it.

Taking away a resource is hardly similar to creating a synthetic environment.


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 7:32 am
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Taking away a resource is hardly similar to creating a synthetic environment.

The synthetic environment was one where the Greek banks could sell bonds to buyers with the expectation that the debts were as good as German bonds (ie low interest rates).


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 8:22 am
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The synthetic environment was one where the Greek banks could sell bonds to buyers with the expectation that the debts were as good as German bonds (ie low interest rates).

that I could go along with


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 8:29 am
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mikewsmith - Member

and there was me thinking the plan was to change the name of the airport/country and pretend none of it ever happened

TBh that's what they'd do if it were a company. Quick, create a "Bad Greece", maybe on one of the Laousses Islets, put all the debt into that one and put all the assets into Greace Holdings, with your wife as director- sorted. But if it's a country, it's totally reasonable to expect unborn children to pick up the tab for their entire lives.


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 8:30 am
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But if it's a country, it's totally reasonable to expect unborn children to pick up the tab for their entire lives.

there was me thinking that was the core policy of the "End Austerity Now" loons.


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 8:34 am
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But, what will have changed by the next dead line? Lets assume that they get the money. Will it be enough to give them a chance to turn this crisis around in the short term and meet the future repayment schedule without further last minute deals?


 
Posted : 23/06/2015 8:38 am
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