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– and also a great illustration of how driverless vehicles (at least in a country like the UK) are a distant dream….
Or not. And yes, I know this isn't the UK but honestly, it's the countries that seem like they would be impossible for machines to navigate that are the most in need of autonomous driving.
And to be brutally honest, given the standard of the human bus drivers around here, the sooner the current crop are in another line of work the better.
Cougar
Full MemberTrains still need drivers and they’re on rails. Sort that one out first and then get back to me about cars.
Trains need staff, they don't necessarily need permanent drivers. TBF they'd probably be better with driverless trains and with the driver released from the plate to work the rest of the train.
Of course, triain companies usually see driverless/guardless/inspectorless trains as a way to cut costs and staffing, or to use less qualified staff, but it doesn't have to be like that. Unions get criticised for fighting it all on those terms, but that's basically because that's how it is.
TBF they’d probably be better with driverless trains and with the driver released from the plate to work the rest of the train.
So that'd be the guards and conductors that've been the source of numerous strike actions over the last five years, causing massive inconvenience, citing 'passenger safety' as a concern, but who hid in the end carriages throughout Covid rather than enforcing basic safety protocols, and almost never IME confront the routine antisocial behaviour that discourages so many from using trains?
That’s like saying we shouldn’t have computers flying planes because my laptop keeps crashing. The tech that’ll go into driverless cars will be completely different to adaptive cruise control
Well, no. The first is comparing planes with laptops, the second is comparing car automation with car automation. If the tech going into driverless cars is going to be "completely different" from current technologies then why can't we have those technologies instead? Surely the stuff we have now is a precursor to what comes next.
Is your car a VW by the way? My Hyundai has never done anything weird with regards the cruise feature.
Honda. It's brilliant on motorways but it can't cope around town. I guess that's not really what it's designed for.
IMO the driver of this change are tech companies set to make a fortune. See Tesla.
Free public transport is probably a cheaper and more immediate 'win' societally and environmentally.
So many people when they imagine the nirvana of robot cars and no private car ownership don't live in rural places...
tjagain
Full MemberOnce driverless cars become significantly safer than human driven one then it will become harder ad harder to justify driving as you put everyone else at risk
Why? Trains are already far safer than cars but there is no push to ban cars on safety grounds where the train is a realistic alternative.
When you look at absolute risks car deaths are low risk. If we are going to be justifying modes of transport on a risk basis then the first thing to ban is motorcycling.6 miles on a motorbike carries the same risk as 250 miles in a car.
https://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index
So many people when they imagine the nirvana of robot cars and no private car ownership don’t live in rural places…
I think autonomous buses will be common long before autonomous cars.
Of course, at some point the line between buses and cars will start to blur. Some of the autonomous buses they have been using here in Norway are probably smaller than a ten seater minivan. The newer ones are much bigger and are used for busier routes in the centre of town.
The beauty of it is that you no longer have to make all your buses 50+ seaters because you won't have the same issues with training and retaining drivers that you currently have.
When you look at absolute risks car deaths are low risk. If we are going to be justifying modes of transport on a risk basis then the first thing to ban is motorcycling.6 miles on a motorbike carries the same risk as 250 miles in a car.
It's not clear from your link whether it's all deaths caused by cars or just the deaths of the occupants.
If you are driving a car then you're pretty safe. It's all those pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists who tend to get killed.
irc
Free MemberWhen you look at absolute risks car deaths are low risk. If we are going to be justifying modes of transport on a risk basis then the first thing to ban is motorcycling.6 miles on a motorbike carries the same risk as 250 miles in a ca
Sure but that's not a good comparison, because so much motorbike use isn't transport. You need to separate out recreational use, which is much more common for motorbikes, and also riskier than transport use. You'd see a very different number if you have pure transport use.
Surely the stuff we have now is a precursor to what comes next.
Only in the same way that a Sinclair Spectrum is a precursor to a Macbook Pro. Your (and my) adaptive cruise is noddy, only has one sensor of one type, and is not certified to do anything at all. A driverless car will be covered in loads of visual cameras and lidars, have far more computing power, and 1000x the lines of code, and it will have to go through a rigorous certification process.
So many people when they imagine the nirvana of robot cars and no private car ownership
So many people who live in rural places don't realise that they are seriously in the minority and think that their exceptions invalidate the whole idea.
But besides that, robot cars are a different thing to no car ownership, they are not interdependent. Robot cars just make better taxi drivers, that's the only overlap.
yep. Moore's law innit. The fields of AI/Machine Learning are advancing at a stupendous rate currently, and that rate will only accelerate. Stuff that would've been science-fiction only a few years ago, or at the very least very difficult/expensive to implement, is now commonplace. This is the only thing holding back driverless cars now... everything else, physical control methods, etc, was sorted ages ago.Only in the same way that a Sinclair Spectrum is a precursor to a Macbook Pro. Your (and my) adaptive cruise is noddy, only has one sensor of one type, and is not certified to do anything at all. A driverless car will be covered in loads of visual cameras and lidars, have far more computing power, and 1000x the lines of code, and it will have to go through a rigorous certification process.
zilog - the most difficult thing I thought was the decision making - ie kill the granny on the pavement or the cyclist in the road - that sort of issue along with making decisions in a rapidly changing environment
I think its a great idea...one big issue I think, is that insurance for human piloted cars might become very expensive as they would be a much higher risk.
Although I suppose people really out in the sticks might be able to buy a specialist policy with limited millage and only for driving to an 'auto car hub'?
So many people who live in rural places don’t realise that they are seriously in the minority and think that their exceptions invalidate the whole idea.
You could apply that more widely though, e.g people who want the advantages of rural life without disadvantages like poor broadband and inadequate public transport. Suck it up. Regarding the original question as to who wants driverless vehicles - the corporations who jumped on a concept that seemed like a money tree a decade ago but are now realising it might be a financial black hole they've been pouring their money into?
actually implementing the algorithm is trivial... it's more of a moral conundrum which way the computer should be taught to go! I've seen this posed as a "thought exercise" re. autonomous cars, but I think maybe people make too big deal out of this... often the scenarios posed just wouldn't be faced by the computer-controlled vehicle, because they wouldn't have made the same mistakes as a human to get them into that pickle in the first place!the most difficult thing I thought was the decision making – ie kill the granny on the pavement or the cyclist in the road
So many people when they imagine the nirvana of robot cars and no private car ownership don’t live in rural places…
So many people who live in rural places don’t realise that they are seriously in the minority and think that their exceptions invalidate the whole idea.
I live in a rural area which has two busses per week (Mon 10-14:00 and Thursday 11:15 to 14:45) each to A local town 8.5 miles away. You have to do whatever you want to do and be back on the bus in 4 hours in the middle of the day, in the middle of the week.
A self driving, self recharging electric car service for the village with 1 or 2 or more available cars with 4-6 seats would be FAAR more useful for everyone in our village and those around us.
I think its a great idea…one big issue I think, is that insurance for human piloted cars might become very expensive as they would be a much higher risk.
They would be no higher risk than now. Possibly lower. If EVs, as claimed, are safer then there would be less 50:50 bumps. So insurance for human drivers would be lower with less accidents overall.
What it might do is reduce the number of new drivers. A new young driver currently pays huge insurance until older and more experienced. The prize at the moment is the mobility provided by the car.
If there is a way to get virtually the same mobility without paying several years of young driver insurance then a licence is a bit less attrative.
Meanwhile my annual insurance, under £200 is a small part of overall costs and won't influence my car choices.
Sure but that’s not a good comparison, because so much motorbike use isn’t transport. You need to separate out recreational use, which is much more common for motorbikes, and also riskier than transport use. You’d see a very different number if you have pure transport use.
Different but still very risky. Motorbikes are under 1% of traffic but 20% of road deaths.
66% of motorway deaths are rural. Call all rural miles recreational and it leaves a third of urban miles for transport/utitlity. Motorbiking is still around 7 times riskier than average.
https://begin-motorcycling.co.uk/uk-motorcycle-accident-statistics/
So as I said if we want to go Big Brother and start banning modes of transport on a risk basis bikes will be first.
set it to “Alps”
Make sure you don't arrive on a snowy day. Just one of many examples when you'll end up walking to your destination when the conditions mean the car decides to stop or does something stupid where a driver would make do with limited visibility and grip.
Sounds like a strong argument for driverless cars.
It's going to be lovely. I used to love driving in rural England, but here in Vancouver it's a real chore. Traffic is slow, people are inconsiderate and impatient, single occupancy vehicles (usually gigantic pickup trucks) clog the roads. I can't wait until I don't have to worry about Chad trying to merge onto my bonnet in his F-350 to get over to the McDonalds drive-through.
In my mind it'll happen slowly, maybe with people who can afford the initial sum buying full self drive cars, but then leasing them out when they're not using them....I suppose like an Air B&B.
There's a car share program here that I use a lot, called Evo, and it's great. All the cars are electric or hybrid, generally they're clean and tidy, don't smell, they all have 2 bike racks and a ski rack, and you just file a short report when you get in (is it clean? Any new damage? Etc). There's tons of cars, you can park them pretty much anywhere for free, and you pay buy time. It's about 25p per min or £10 an hour. Just park it up and leave it for the next person. Next logical step seems to make them self driving, I suppose. You could even select if you wanted to "ride share" and pick people up on the way.
I'd rather we just got on with making cars obsolete TBH.
Make sure you don’t arrive on a snowy day. Just one of many examples when you’ll end up walking to your destination when the conditions mean the car decides to stop or does something stupid where a driver would make do with limited visibility and grip.
Sounds like the cars the sensible one there.
How many cyclists have died because drivers decided they "would make do with limited visibility and grip."?
So many people when they imagine the nirvana of robot cars and no private car ownership don’t live in rural places…
This always gets trotted out, usually (although not in Matt's case, IIRC he works in outdoor education?) by middle aged, middle class people who've chosen to live there and accept their 1h commute into "the big smoke".
Without a hint of irony that their situation is self inflicted and self fulfilling because they keep driving into the cities.
Ban the cars from the cities however and most of the problem goes away because their commute becomes too difficult. With the knock on effect of cities then become nicer places to live so peole are less inclined to leave in the first place. And rural house prices cease to spiral out of controll with fewer commuters competing with people who actually "live" and work there.
^ City vs rural won’t be so much an issue- it will be these growing sprawling suburban/semi-rural developments (not new towns, just ‘developments’) Best guess is with little to no multimodal infrastructure because cars are the normal/future of UK transport and automation/wfh/gig economy will be the lifestyle. Cities will
be the few places where there will be some (minimal/poorly-implemented) cycling infrastructure.
If the tech going into driverless cars is going to be “completely different” from current technologies then why can’t we have those technologies instead? Surely the stuff we have now is a precursor to what comes next.
Because cars need to be able to image and sensor process, compute velocities, vectors, stopping distances, conditions, reserve power, steering angle, road inclination, vehicle dynamics, etc and from all that, create a hierarchy of possible decisions based on allowed laws and safety considerations in a dynamic environment. It must do all that without ANY internet connectivity, all on-board, within a split second on a low power consumption, low cost, fully connected, totally stable computer system. THIS is the challenge to fully autonomous vehicles.
I think we need to be sensible, if your are driving up mountains etc, a regular car might be a better option, and exeptions can and should be made.
But there are litteraly billions of journeys per day to tesco, or for the school run, or the work commute that can instantly be made far safer and far better for the environment, by removing the human driver aspect.
let's tackle the problem from where it is worst. We're not taking about stopping farmer Giles in his Suzuki Jimney from using his utility vehicle.
@p7eaven, yup. Arround Reading it's just nuts.
There's thousands of new flats going up in the town center for people who will commute by train.
Then thousands more of suburban sprawl in "Wokigham" because government targets say so. Why? There aren't any jobs for these people, they're just going to be forced to drive to somewhere else to work (or into Reading to park at the multistoreys) . It's a completely flawed way to build houses!
And because it's all low density suburban sprawl it's just making it worse. Housing estates miles across don't encourage anyone to walk to the bloody shops do they?
So many people who live in rural places don’t realise that they are seriously in the minority and think that their exceptions invalidate the whole idea.
@molgrips - I think my point wasn't about somehow rejecting ideas, more that rural needs a lot of thought. Both residents and visitors.
I agree with the thought that rural buses will be smaller and possibly more regular.
.
I've had the 'hardship' today of driving from Aviemore to the Moray coast. It's the kind of place that's got one or three houses a mile from a village of 50 houses, which in turn is 8 miles from the town. In winter its icy and snowy. The roads flood. The villagers work in town, at home, the next valley over village school (etc). Currently they can head out for the evening to town, or perhaps majority of the "village" (a whole valley...) gather at once at the village hall.
I'm working here to two days - I've got a car as it's only way of getting between the towns and villages I'm working in.
There's a line of cars outside the pub tonight, first one with a London garage number plates and a couple of touring bikes on the back.
These things all need a solution, and I'm not yet convinced that technology has it covered, or that rural life is facing a massive change coming.
.
A just transition is going to be difficult.
Weren't we supposed to have hover cars by now?
you’ll end up walking to your destination when the conditions mean the car decides to stop or does something stupid
I don't think 'do something stupid' will be programmed into the car. It's programmed into a lot of humans though.
How many cyclists have died because drivers decided they “would make do with limited visibility and grip.”?
In those snowy conditions I cited you'd need a fat bike and goggles with wipers so I suggezst zero. I'd rather trust a driver's eyes than a load of sensors trying to deal with falling sticky snow.
People trusting driverless cars have already killed pedestrians/cyclists in unsnowy and grippy conditions as you'll know if you've followed the previous threads on here.
Alert driver versus driverless car, I'll take my chances with the driver.
Distracted/Angry anti-cyclist driver, I'd rather take my chances with a driverless car.
rural needs a lot of thought
It does. Let's think about what driverless vehicles would add. I mean, we already have busses and taxis, right?
A taxi driver needs to make say £30kpa to make it worth it, plus they has to buy their car. That means they have to charge fairly significant chunks of money, especially in the countryside where things are further apart. This makes them a less viable option since demand is suppressed by this price/cost floor. That then suppresses the supply which means it takes longer to order a taxi and since taxi drivers have to go home at night they have a.limit on how far they'll go. All a bit of a faff and expense.
However a driverless car with enough range could cost in today's money £30k, and let's assume all the driverless gear adds ten grand. It could easily run for a decade on that cost, like the human driver's car, but you're saving £300k by not paying the driver. That could make it easy to keep the fare down. It might be as cheap as bus fare, but it goes door to door, is quicker and private. That could increase demand (I'd have used this constantly as a youngster, as it was I had to hitch hike or ride) and you could just keep putting more and more on the roads and they could become hugely important for rural communities. But wait, what about congestion? Well, there's not much of that out in the real countryside now, and the driverless cars wouldn't necessarily have to drive home again empty after a dropoff so overall car miles cod actually be less.
Add a bit more tech and you could car pool easily. Tell it you need to go to town some time this week and it'll offer you a trip rolled up with other people and you'd save even more. Like an on-demand bus.
People trusting driverless cars have already killed pedestrians/cyclists in unsnowy and grippy conditions as you’ll know if you’ve followed the previous threads on here.
And human drivers kill people all the time.
If I were designing a system I'd have it listen to weather and conditions reports from the resort and other cars on the road, and if they were bad you'd get a message saying 'hey, conditions on the road are terrible, I'm not going up there in this. You're on your own.' Then you drive up anyway on manual controls being a driving god of course. Good luck trying to make an insurance claim if anything were to happen though.
Can’t wait to see a driverless car/vehicle try & get across the Empress roundabout in Harrogate at 4.30pm on a Friday. It would be carnage*.
Not unless every other vehicle there is also driverless.
*bussage? vanage?
I have confidence in the tech but you will be able to bully driverless cars out of the way by relying on them stopping, I suspect. I don't think there's a way around that. Unless it simply uploads footage of you being a dick to the police AI that automatically sends you a ticket.. hehe...
Add a bit more tech and you could car pool easily
Let's be honest, if we weren't all so precious about our cars, we could car pool and lift share already!
I agree with the thoughts about sprawling towns without 'local level' infrastructure such as high street shopping in walking distance, local schools and buses or trains to other destinations.
I still think the model of a driverless car on a Highland road is a hell of a long way away - and the driverless £100k Tesla to take me on my old commute rather than my battered old car doesn't initially stack up financially.
I'm also aware I don't want to conflate driverless tech with low carbon tech or social solutions. All three seem to be an overlapping Venn diagram - but also different issues...
probably overthinking the importance of Highland roads in the UK transport network as a whole tbh 😂I still think the model of a driverless car on a Highland road is a hell of a long way away
I suspect they'll start with the centres of the big cities, kind of like ULEZ, where either you can [I]only[/I] drive an autonomous car or they'll be a charge to drive a non-autonomous one, and move outwards from there. By the time they get to you you'll probably be able to pick up an ancient autonomous banger for a weeks wages 😃
Then you drive up anyway on manual controls
That assumes you have the choice, give people the choice and I think they'll make quite selective use of self-driving options and all the dangers of human operated cars will reamin with some new ones due to driverless technology.
Tesla might have some stats about whether drivers or the auto pilot screws up more in conditions in which the self-driving mode is appropriate but I can't see them releasing uncensored data to anyone.
I very much doubt we will see properly autonomous private cars in my lifetime. I think we are decades away yet. the experiments in the states show how far we are away and there is still a huge issue around liability. Who is liable if an autonomous car kills someone?
We might see limited use before that like the buses mentioned above - that run a fixed urban route and perhaps some motorway driving. But a car you can sit in in london and tell it to take you to Aviemore? decades away IMO
Also they really do not solve the main issue of energy usage. I suspect the private car will be priced out of the reach of most of the population first
To give another answer to the original question, tech companies like Google are pushing it because people in automated vehicles are a captive market with nothing better to do than scroll their phones and consume more stuff. Imagine how much more you would use stw if you didn't have to look at the road on the way to work
If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.
I already have free bus travel and I don't use them. Infrequent and slow. The one thing that might persuade me to not use the car for many journeys would be cheaper E-bikes with a realistic speed cutout for riding in urban traffic.
So if they removed the VAT from E-bikes and perhaps subsidised part of the cost like they do with EVs. Then made the assistance cutout at 22mph I'd buy one and replace a lot of my commuting trips with it.
https://road.cc/content/news/industry-calls-no-vat-bikes-subsidies-e-bikes-273329
I very much doubt we will see properly autonomous private cars in my lifetime.
Then we will have collectivley all failed to address the issue, if we continue to allow the 'jordans' of this world to drink drive and 'snap-chat' whilst in control of a 2 ton 400hp car without even having insurance.
Is she in jail yet? probably not.
Tesla might have some stats about whether drivers or the auto pilot screws up more in conditions in which the self-driving mode is appropriate but I can’t see them releasing uncensored data to anyone.
https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
Here you go.
probably overthinking the importance of Highland roads in the UK transport network as a whole tbh 😂
Except this weekend I stayed in city centre Sheffield and drove into the Peak - similar style of uber narrow road. I can't see my friends buying a car which can only go towards city centre, but not the Peak, both equidistant from thier door.
And cities are for bikes, scooters, Twizzy's, Ami's etc...
If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.
I’m fairly confident that will continue not to be the question. The question here is ‘exactly who is pushing for fully automated/driverless cars’?
Who ever said it was tech companies I tend to agree I think they’re driving it far more than the safety lobby.
The question of whether we should be encouraging more car-dependency/environmental-planning to be car-centric is probably little to do with automation. It’s not really a question tbh (excepting minorities/a few activists/environmentalists)just inevitable.
Although I believe the tech-company and media focus on driverless cars (as opposed to multimodal infra/options) is now also driving/breathing new gusto into the conversation/‘inevitability’ of more and more cars - and so all focus/‘planning’ remains on cars and and so-forth (ad-infinatum)
Reminds me of a bygone Julian Cope lp ‘Autogeddon’ (inspired in turn by Heathcote Williams’ epic poem)
“Like a pig driving a cart-load of sausages. Driving my own conclusion.”
Who wants them?
Me, in 25 years time, when my eyesight, cognition and reactions aren't good enough for driving, but I want to keep as much independence as possible and not rely on strangers, some of whom may be keen to fleece the elderly and vulnerable.
My mate who's just had a mahoosive stroke aged 50 could do with them right now TBH.
My elderly relative could have done with them last week when I spent about 6 hours ferrying them to and from a specialist medical centre for some treatment. It was nice spending time together! But a lucky thing I'm retired!.
Who else?
At least 3 friends who lost their licences for a couple of years or more after having seizures.
All the under 17s who live out in the sticks and don't want to cycle back from town in the dark in the winter.
The young woman two streets along who lost her sight in her teens.
The diehard city lover who never learned to drive and who now has a sick mother 2h drive away (but 3-4 h by public transport, and God help you if you have a load of stuff to carry).
Anyone getting a taxi who's ever been taken the loooong way to their destination (this happened to me in *Canada* FFS).
if they can get it working it will be absolutely ****ing awesome.
I already have free bus travel and I don’t use them. Infrequent and slow.
Well that's the point of driverless shared cars - they wouldn't be.
Working in the motor industry, and seeing first-hand the reliability of the electronics in even fairly high-end vehicles, I wouldn’t go near one with a barge-pole. I do not have enough faith in any system developed in the foreseeable future to be safe enough for me to trust it with my, or anyone else’s life.
An example - the entire dashboard screen display in a relatively, ie less than two year old, Mercedes A-Class failing completely while being driven out of the workshop after minor bodywork repairs. The thought of that happening on a motorway in the dark, in poor weather really makes me feel queasy.
It’s for exactly that reason my car has analogue dials, along with knobs and an actual handbrake, because I’ve seen electronic handbrakes fail as well.
I had a read of the DfT’s Industrial Strategy publication:
‘Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy
Moving Britain Ahead’
…
2. Transport is becoming
increasingly automated
3.5 Improved sensing technology, computing power and software engineering are leading to increasing levels of automation in transport, across many different modes. In the US, self- driving technology company Waymo has accumulated over 10 million self- driven miles, in addition to 7 billion in simulation.3.6 Total disclosed external investment in self-driving vehicle technology since 2010 stands at over $40 billion, with an almost nine-fold increase in average yearly investment from 2010-2013 to 2014-2018.26
£907 billion
Estimated global market for connected and self-driving vehicles in 20353.7 UK companies are at the forefront
of this field, drawing on our strength
in vehicle and software engineering. Several projects will deploy self-driving vehicles on road or public spaces in the UK by 2021.3.8 These projects are large collaborations between businesses from different sectors and local transport authorities. The Government recently announced three projects to deliver six-month pilots of self-driving passenger services: one bus service in Edinburgh, and two on- demand taxi services in London.
For those excited about hovering/vtol/droning about the place:
As part of DfT’s developing Aviation Strategy and the Aerospace Sector Deal, we are considering the role
that new potential air mobility solutions, such as vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) concepts, could play in transforming aerial mobility and improving regional connectivity.
7.60 Priorities for 2019:
• Starting to deliver the Future Flight programme, which will receive up to £125 million from the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, subject to business case and match funded by industry, to aerospace and other manufacturers to research and engineer new technologies and infrastructure;
Technology is enabling new ways
of transporting people and goods.
In the air, drones are being used to address local needs, from supporting emergency services to improving the safety of infrastructure inspections. One report estimated that the global market for urban aviation, including commercial drones and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) services could be worth $1.5 trillion by 2040.
One would imagine by such a time that noise-cancelling headsets/earpods will be normal everyday safety-wear for those who dare step outdoors from the work/home/car/bubble?
BirdsongTM, Gentle ChatterTM and Ambient Nature Sounds TM will be readily available from Audible for all devices.
In other news - Tesco is banking in delivering ‘last minute forgotten recipes items’ and otjer goods by drone.
“We’re really interested to see how drones could be part of the solution to deliver to our customers on-demand small baskets,” she said, noting the small basket market in Britain was forecast to exceed 10 billion pounds ($13 billion) over the coming years.
“If our trial with Manna is successful, we really think there is an opportunity to reach many customers through our stores extending with a drones service,” she said.
Lewis said Tesco had four innovation priority areas: food & drink products and technology; data; robotics and automation; and packaging.
(shrieking) Manna from heaven? Although if the ads are to be believed, the whole experience will sound to us and neighbours as upbeat, gentle pseudo-Jamaican pop music rather than the air being permanently ripped asunder by angry giant plastic bees.
Nevermind the jump to fully automated vehicles, I can't believe that we still don't have automated speed limitting.
Working in the motor industry, and seeing first-hand the reliability of the electronics in even fairly high-end vehicles, I wouldn’t go near one with a barge-pole. I do not have enough faith in any system developed in the foreseeable future to be safe enough for me to trust it with my, or anyone else’s life.
I guess you don't like getting on planes?
Like I said earlier, I don't see the future being self driving privately owned cars but rather self driving buses of various sizes. The smaller ones will start to blur the line between taxi and bus, I reckon.
How throwing our bike on the roof and setting off for a tour of 7stanes will fit into that equation I don't know but I don't think the issue is unsolvable.
I guess you don’t like getting on planes?
Hardly a fair comparison really. Cars have to meet a price point, planes have to meet flight certification regulations. You could make cars as reliable as passenger jets, but no one could afford them.
I've got to say, I'm a sceptic that we'll have a fully automated systems that covers the entire country, it's probably not doable, and probably isn't worth it. I can see a system that manages motorways and trunk roads, alongside a financial system that discourages short journeys by car, encourages bike/walking locally - free public transit etc etc.
How throwing our bike on the roof and setting off for a tour of 7stanes will fit into that equation I don’t know but I don’t think the issue is unsolvable
They could be great for a days ride. Chuck your bike in (you'll be able to choose the type of vehicle to suit), get dropped off at the top of a hill. Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.
Hardly a fair comparison really. Cars have to meet a price point, planes have to meet flight certification regulations. You could make cars as reliable as passenger jets, but no one could afford them.
Which is why I said buses and bus/taxis-type things rather than privately owned vehicles were a more likely direction.
One of our semi frequent riding companions is part of the team assessing self driving vehicles and their software. He gets to see where manufacturing and governments are heading. According to him universal automated driverless transport is a very very long time away from reality.
As a tesla owner (renter) I agree with him. Automated driving on motorways is close. Back roads and towns, forget it.
ban cars from cities, let the leccy scooters and cargo bikes take over.
buses and bus/taxis-type things rather than privately owned vehicles were a more likely direction
Nope. The public like and want their own private transport. The idea that folks will go back to just using publicly owned/operated mass transport is fantasy.
An example – the entire dashboard screen display in a relatively, ie less than two year old, Mercedes A-Class failing completely while being driven out of the workshop after minor bodywork repairs.
The dash displays aren't made to the same specification that the self driving stuff will have to be. There will be legislation about this. The motoring public won't accept mass casualties any more than you will. Why would they? You think we're all going to get in cars that fail and kill us? A lot has been written about this. Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.
I’m a sceptic that we’ll have a fully automated systems that covers the entire country, it’s probably not doable, and probably isn’t worth it.
I think we will eventually. It'll be AI based, so it will learn how to drive along a windy country road the same way that we do.
ban cars from cities, let the leccy scooters and cargo bikes take over.
Though this has side effects. Former prime retail streets in Glasgow are now scruffy low rent down at heel eyesores. I suspect the rerason is people choosing to drive to peripheral shopping centres with easy access and free parking rather than struggle to find a parking space and pay through the nose for it.
Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.
I’m sold on that alone!!
I have 13 years til i retire, my retirement plans include no car, and an electric bike with rack/panniers/trailer, or possibly a cargo bike. And a collie.
Haven’t decided on whether to go normal bike with panniers or cargo or trailer.
Will need to do everything a retired guy ‘needs’ a car for, apart from long journeys when I’ll have time to use a bus.
Nope. The public like and want their own private transport. The idea that folks will go back to just using publicly owned/operated mass transport is fantasy.
As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.
And like I said, public transport in an era of self driving buses/taxis is going to look very different from what it looks like today. Why would you stick to the current model of buses that can carry 50-100 passengers with schedules that are rigidly set? When you take away the reliance on drivers you can match the buses available to the demand. There are any number of ways to do this.
The problem is that people have become so used to the way things function now that they literally can't even imagine another way.
And I think private vehicle ownership will still be a thing. It's just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.
It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.
I'd bet money they won't be.
The problem is that people have become so used to the way things function now that they literally can’t even imagine another way.
It wasn't that long ago that most people hadn't been out of their own county let alone country. The ability of individuals to go wherever at whatever time they want; independently, is baked in, there's no going back, and I'd imagine most folks aren't going to be content to have to "request" a vehicle with all the data and privacy issues that that raises, not to mention the time delay, the wrong vehicles the mischarging and all all the other 101 issues that having to book a car from a pool is going to cause.
Our second car is a zip-car (car club thing).
If I didn’t have to walk the 20 mins to where it’s parked, I’d actually use it more, which is probably a bad thing…
As a rule, it’s generally fueled and clean as you get fined if you leave it otherwise.
Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.
I think lots of people are so fixed in the driving mindset that they can't see simple advantages of driverless cars - even if it's just the ability to have a few pints and then get driven home. Or being able to relax and not have to concentrate on their commute.
I use my local rail network in the way described above, it's great (especially on big tailwind days)! This would be even better.
As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.
I still can't figure out how people afford to buy new (or even secondhand) cars outright at the moment. They seem prohibitively expensive.
As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.
IIRC the $2mil price point is where automatic landing systems get fitted to aircraft, and autopilot is a far easier problem to solve than automatic driving, obviously cars are currently higher volume and lower unit cost but whether that all slots together to make an affordable self driving system, my money is on 'not for a very long time'.
The dash displays aren’t made to the same specification that the self driving stuff will have to be.
Yeah, about that. My guess is the display will form part of the self driving system. You need some way to tell what the system is doing, without that control and feedback the system would by definition have to stop operation. And the display has to be as available / reliable as the system itself. Potentially slightly less if the display can reboot and recover gracefully, independent of the main system.
I'll bet that within 20 years people moving around the country in 2 tonne boxes that they own will be no longer.
the position we are in now is unsustainable and the system is creaking at the seams. In the future the era of personal cars will seem very quaint indeed. Its a question of resources. There is not enough
Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.
Yes, they will be held to a much higher account. What is the death toll these days in the UK for example, ~2,000. If all cars were driverless what would the acceptable number be. I would say 1,000 would be good going but can't imagine that being good for the critics.
Me, in 25 years time, when my eyesight, cognition and reactions aren’t good enough for driving, but I want to keep as much independence as possible and not rely on strangers, some of whom may be keen to fleece the elderly and vulnerable.
My mate who’s just had a mahoosive stroke aged 50 could do with them right now TBH.
Well, sadly you still won’t be able to safely monitor and be responsible for an autonomous car.
I guess you don’t like getting on planes?
The number of sensors and processing for an autopilot are insignificant compared to what is required for safe self-driving cars. Aeroplanes are generally using very tried and tested (read old) processing technology. They do go wrong from time to time, but you can work around that.
I’ve had my emergency braking in my car react to a swarm of flies and tell me I’m crashing. No way would I trust anyone’s life with autonomous cars on normal roads!! I do use adaptive cruise on major roads/motorways, but still have to steer. Not exactly a chore.
I couldn’t think of anything more depressing than full automation, but I suppose I’m a dinosaur; I still like my ICE manual.
Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.
^^^
Not a high bar.
Re comments about trusting the electronics - you want to take a look at the increasingly raddled plate of gray salty blancmange that's currently responsible for my expert driving.
The number of sensors and processing for an autopilot are insignificant compared to what is required for safe self-driving cars. Aeroplanes are generally using very tried and tested (read old) processing technology. They do go wrong from time to time, but you can work around that.
It's not sci-fi, it's happening now.
In my town we have Level 4 autonomous buses, with 21 seats plus standing room, picking up and dropping off passengers and, so far, managing to not kill anyone in the process.
In my town we have Level 4 autonomous buses, with 21 seats plus standing room, picking up and dropping off passengers and, so far, managing to not kill anyone in the process.
Were there any flies though? They might have made them stop momentarily.
They might have made them stop momentarily.
If that ever happens, you can be sure it'll make international news.
Unlike the **** of a bus driver who overtook me with my daughter in the trailer and then pulled into the bus stop before his back wheel had even cleared my front wheel forcing me to jam on the brakes so as not to end up in the kerb or under the wheels.
That didn't even make the local news.
And I think private vehicle ownership will still be a thing. It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.
Disagree strongly. AFAIK only the Netherlands fought the tide early enough for a sea change (sic,sic!) in modal transport infrastructure and when much of Holland is lost to sea-levels (because AGW) we’ll all continue with the US model because our culture has an extra half a decade of baked-in carbrain and cartown.
In the last 20 years every new residential and retail development I see cropping up around my local town is sort of semi-rural, built on old farmland and none of these developments have any decent infrastructure whatsoever for cycling or velomobiles etc. We live in a town 8 miles from a city and there has
never been any interest or demand or action towards cycling infrastructure between city and town, let alone between city/town and the new rushed-through semi-rural housing estates/‘Boris Boxes’.
It’s cars all the way down, I’m afraid.
* Although I believe Holland currently has more private vehicles (cars) per capita than the UK, it’s just that they use/d them very differently. The rest of the world is playing full-speed catchup with the US model while we are set to a gentle boil-over.
No crystal ball but I err on pessimistic/human nature
Disagree strongly
It depends.
The issue is that the assumption is that the political will isn't there to effectively legislate away private car ownership*.
I don't see many people arguing for private car ownership on principle. Most are arguing based on whether it is possible for a machine to drive a car or not.
I honestly don't think the will is there to keep private car ownership as being a borderline 'human right' if there is even a halfway decent alternative.
*Obviously private car ownership won't be outlawed outright anymore than private plane ownership has been outlawed. It'll just be made so difficult that only the truly committed will bother doing so.
I’ll bet that within 20 years people moving around the country in 2 tonne boxes that they own will be no longer.
Well, technically, we're already there with lease agreements, but if you mean that in 20 years, no one will have their own private car/conveyance, I think you're going to be VERY disappointed.
Well, technically, we’re already there with lease agreements, but if you mean that in 20 years, no one will have their own private car/conveyance, I think you’re going to be VERY disappointed.
I think there is going to be a tipping point where owning a car just makes no sense except in a few cases. At that point I reckon the change will take less than a decade.
When exactly that will happen is another matter. Make no mistake, it'll result in a complete reshaping of society. If not on the same scale as the internet did then even greater, I would say.
It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.
In a decade? Do you see any evidence of this? I’m still generally the only bike tied up outside of Lidl (or Waitrose or Morrisons) and I have to take a few cheeky routes to not get squished. This has been the same for the last 40 years of my life, and it was the same last week as well as next week. I long ago knew that I will die before it happens, having spent a life as a car-dodging weirdo carrying stuff on a bicycle looking for a safe route.
So if you think the British people (and planners) are going to change their entire culture and infrastructure in less than a decade and that cars parked outside the supermarkets and schools and off-licenses are going to be largely replaced with bicycles and trailers etc then you are at least my favourite fantasist! Now, I’m off to beat the school rush…🚴♂️
I honestly don’t think the will is there to keep private car ownership as being a borderline ‘human right’ if there is even a halfway decent alternative.
I'd agree. Since early 2020, our car averages 250 miles a month and I periodically cost it up against Car Club type stuff. Even with depreciation, servicing, tax and insurance, it's STILL cheaper (and more convenient) to keep our car, even just for a monthly round trip to see the parents. (See also: trains)
If a shared / car club type option was cheaper I'd seriously consider ditching ours, despite it being less convenient. But we're not there yet.
If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.
I’m fairly confident that will continue not to be the question. The question here is ‘exactly who is pushing for fully automated/driverless cars’?
Who ever said it was tech companies I tend to agree I think they’re driving it far more than the safety lobby.
Ditto, I think I used the phrase "technology will save us all" to describe the mindset, and it is a bit of a problem the world has generally. The 'tech-Bros' and Musks of this world are keen on commercialising cool ideas and concepts. but lets be honest, they tend not to address the more mundane or more critical real problems the world faces.
The core need to be addressed is transport in a world where most people's lives are more geographically scattered, Environmental damage (a reasonable chunk from the last couple of hundred years of transport development) is now a pressing issue and incomes are likely to be under pressure for the next few years.
Will/Can SDV be affordable? (Including any underpinning infrastructure, bought and/or rented, used as public or privately owned transport, etc)
Will/Can SDV reduce the environmental impacts of personal transport? Will/Can they be at least as safe as the conventionally operated vehicles they would replace?
Unless you can answer yes to all of the above, then SDV are really just another "cool idea" that Millionaire/Billionaire Tech-Bros like but haven't thought through fully... And we still have food banks in first world countries...
In the future the era of personal cars will seem very quaint indeed
We've built our housing stock largely on car use. It may look different from the centre of Edinburgh, but places like say Brackley in Northamptonshire (and satellite towns like it up and down the country) only really work because of personal car use. I doubt it's a good plan to knock down perfectly good houses and build them somewhere else to satisfy the demands of the self-drive car lobby.
Remove pollution, and most folks would be pleased to just carry on exactly as they are now.
In a decade? Do you see any evidence of this? I’m still generally the only bike tied up outside of Lidl (or Waitrose or Morrisons) and I have to take a few cheeky routes to not get squished. This has been the same for the last 40 years of my life, and it was the same last week as well as next week. I long ago knew that I will die before it happens, having spent a life as a car-dodging weirdo carrying stuff on a bicycle looking for a safe route.
If you think about the internet, how much of a change in society was there between 2000 and 2010?
With smart phones, how ubiquitous did they become between 2007 and 2017. Even my parents have them now because it's just so much less hassle to have them not.
Self driving cars are probably at the 'internet in 1995' stage at the moment. People can't see how it will change the world because what use is a more efficient way of looking at porn? Everyone is focusing on us all owning our own self driving car and basically society continuing as before but with robots doing the driving instead of humans because that's all anyone has ever known.
Having a public transport system that can be changed and scaled instantaneously is going to completely upend society. Once people aren't afraid to get on a bike more and more people are going to try it and realise that you can actually go quite a long way on two wheels and 2 tons of metal isn't required for every journey.
Like I said, in my town we now have 21 seat plus standing room level 4 autonomous buses picking up and dropping off passengers. There's no guarantee that this is the tipping point but once you have a successful self driving bus route I suspect you're going to see more and more.