Where do we think i...
 

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Where do we think interest rates are going...

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...and should I fix for 5 or 10 years?

Our previous 5yr fixed deal finished earlier this year, and I've been slack about sorting it out.
Currently on a tracker that is base rate + 1.74%, so 2.99% currently.

I can get a 5yr fixed at 2.95% or a 10yr fixed at 3.1%, neither with fees.
This is with only a bit of looking around and through our existing mortgage provider (though they seem competitive).
I can do the swap with minimal faff in their banking app, which makes life easy (I'm all for that!)

So...interest rates probably set to go up by 0.5% next month, and then who knows? Probably be at 2-2.5% by next year.

We're not moving, only 12 years left on the mortgage, and I like a bit of stability and predictability, so I'm minded to go for the 10yr fixed.

What think ye?


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 6:05 pm
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Up to 3% next year i think.
We fixed for 5 yrs at 2.09% and it started this month


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 6:13 pm
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Up to 3% next year i think

Yeah, if I'd have been less slack I'd have been able to get a lower rate 6 months ago. Doh!


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 6:15 pm
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I’d have been able to get a lower rate 6 months ago

We remortgaged 11 months ago, I was smug at 1.17% / 5yrs.
I'm thinking I should have extended the mortgage by 1 year, fixed at 2.17% for 10 years...


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 6:28 pm
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Seeing as there’s bugger all difference in those interest rates you may as well fix for 10 years.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 7:43 pm
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Wondering when the best time to jump is myself.

We're fixed for another 18 months so will pay a significant penalty to change provider before January but plan to borrow more next year for an extension. Starting to think it may be sensible to take the hit and get a decent rate sooner rather than later....


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 7:52 pm
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Sounds like a spreadsheet or the money saving expert calculators and half an hour to get the options costed.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 8:31 pm
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10 years does seem sensible. That's a low rate by most measures and will pretty much see your mortgage paid off. Basically nothing more to worry about.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 8:57 pm
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Truss is going to be in charge for the next 2 years, so the sky's the limit really


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 9:03 pm
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Annoyingly i missed the letter saying we could have changed rate earlier and it would have been 1.79%. But oh well it is what it is. We only went for 5 years as we are currently overpaying and not sure how many years left. Might be less than 10 now


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 9:04 pm
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Just fixed for 2.75 for 5 years. Hope to pay most of it off then.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 9:10 pm
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We have just fixed for 7years at 3.14% with our current provider at the earliest opportunity we could (current mortgage deal ends in Nov).

Prior to accepting the deal I locked it in whilst I checked all about and no-one could get us a lower deal.

Two days later, the best deal went up to 3.44% so it was arise move to lock the 3.14% in. We had 14 days to accept it or let it lapse.

We went for 7 years instead of 5 as my thinking was it is unlikely that rates will have dropped back to the current level in 5 years so may as well go with 7. We'll have 3 years left then and if we overpay may even end up with only a tiny mortgage to pay off. What I do know is I'd rather have the security of knowing what I'm paying when everything else is going up.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 10:39 pm
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We've fixed at just over 2% for 5 years to pay off in 8yr2mnths. I plan on quitting my job that month and doing something to pay the bills.


 
Posted : 22/07/2022 10:48 pm
 Del
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the difference between those two rates is pretty minimal and the bank's crystal ball is all priced in at the end of the day.

there's a lot to be said for having that peace of mind when it comes to the roof over your head.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 10:59 am
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@ajamtom "I can get a 5yr fixed at 2.95% or a 10yr fixed at 3.1%"

What lender was that? I'm going through this this weekend and best I can find is 5yr fixed at 3.09% with 10yr fixed at 3.39% (first direct 60% LTV)


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 11:07 am
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I took a 10year fix at 3.1%..... in 2015!

It wasn't the best call, though I'm not hugely rueful. Am hoping we'll be through the worst of the interest rates when it comes up in 2025.

I'd say a 10 year fix at that rate starting now is a much better prospect and would probably take it if I was in your shoes!


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 11:41 am
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Typo in mine. I fixed for 1.75.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 11:49 am
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What lender was that? I’m going through this this weekend and best I can find is 5yr fixed at 3.09% with 10yr fixed at 3.39% (first direct 60% LTV)

Barclays. Not sure if it's slightly preferential rates for existing customers?

It was actually 3.14% for the 10yr.

I've gone for it anyway. Took 5 mins in the Barclays app.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 12:17 pm
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Upto 3-4% in the next 18 months.

Looks like theyre willing to take a recession and associated unemployment to drive down inflation (even though most of the driving factors are external).
If they dont increase interest rates to 'tame' or 'look to tame' inflation, theyll lose market confidence and trash the currency and import even more inflation.

Get rid of debt/reduce debt as much as possible. Any remaining debt, fix for as low and as long as possible.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 5:32 pm
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Up up up


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 6:22 pm
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Up. How much could you potentially lose by fixing for as long as possible? **** all. How much could you potentially lose by not fixing? Well how would you feel about 12% on the amount you'll have outstanding if you only fix for a few years?


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 8:33 pm
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I took a 10year fix at 3.1%….. in 2015!

I had a 10 year fix at 9% but would have been end of the nineties.
Detached house for 65k.

I reckon I’d fix they don’t seem to be on top of this and it’s something less to worry about as a few percent on a mortgage could be a fair whack.

I think there’s a few bumpy years ahead.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 10:01 pm
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They should go up up up.
However the government will probably try to shelter borrowers from bad decisions as much as possible since the tories are somewhat relaxed when it comes to testing the concept of personal responsibility when it comes to their voters.


 
Posted : 23/07/2022 11:39 pm
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This week, I think, interest rates are going to go up or down..


 
Posted : 24/07/2022 12:18 am
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They're going up but not by much. Sustaining the housing bubble/boom is far too important to the country's finances for them to allow mass defaults on mortgages so they'll keep rates below 5% as long as they can. Which is bad news for savers and potential first time buyers but great for the retired people with big houses.


 
Posted : 24/07/2022 1:57 am
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I fixed at 0.99% for 5 years last November (sorry)

Fixing for 10 years at current rates IMO would not make sense for most:

1) Despite the bank of England supposedly targeting inflation. In practice, they have [also] set rates to avoid house price falls. If/when house prices fall, what will happen to interest rates?

2) I think it is unheard of for 10 rates to be lower than 5 year rates. However the differential at the moment is the narrowest I have ever seen. That says something about where the markets see rates in the medium/long term.

However for the OP who has 12 years left on their mortgage. The mortgage balance of the last 5 years of the 10 year fix will be quite small. As such, it will probably not make much financial difference either way and it could well be worth the peace-of-mind premium.


 
Posted : 24/07/2022 9:20 am
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/bank-of-england-may-tackle-inflation-with-major-interest-rate-hike

Definitely glad I fixed now!
+0.75% this week, maybe another 1% by the end of the year?


 
Posted : 21/09/2022 7:05 pm

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