When will the 2nd hand car market price fall ?

Also watching with anticipation.
Want, but don’t need, an upgrade

In the high 4 low 5 figure cash purchase range.

Doesn’t get you what it used to.

Possible downside to rising interest rates and uncertainty is people forgoing their new lease machine and wanting a sensible used car, thereby driving up the price

When the chip supply matches demand and new car lead times drop back to normal. No sign of that yet, car production is still constrained by chip supply, so lead times on new cars are very long. Kia stopped taking new orders on some models as the lead times were over a year.

I was sure they'd fall in Q3 2020, so don't ask me 😀

I keep looking and nearly convince myself that £20k for what would have been £9k 2-3 years ago is not a bad price. I don't need a new car but under 'normal' circumstances would definitely change just to meet some nice-to-have requirements for the family.

EDIT: having said that, on the right finance deal it needn't cost much more month on month, but it's a different mindset than paying outright in cash, which I can no longer do

Footflaps has it, when new cars are back to 10 to 12 weeks not 10 to 12 months lead time. I'm still waiting for my Kia ordered 9 months ago. If I had known it would have been this long I would have bought something second hand.

Just after you buy one.

New purchase prices are.mental ergo Lease prices are now mental and cars people actually want hard to get hold.of.

So people buying older cars as that's generally all you get in cold hard car for the down payment on a lease....

Imagine if the ulez expansion in London happens next year the market will be awash with non compliant vehicles. Probably some bargains coming, if you're happy with a diesel.

When the recession bites and the market is flooded with ex lease cars which people have had to give up as they can't afford the rent on them any more.
Or the fact that no one can afford to lease a new one will drive the second hand market higher still.
.
If I knew the answer I'd be rich!

No idea. It will be gradual IMO though but I am not sure the bubble created over the past 2 years will deflate entirely. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if half of it remained as the new normal which would put us closer to used prices in continental Europe.

I am super lucky to have bought in March 2020 and sold last month. £4k appreciation in 30 months. But then again I bought last week at a silly price. Hoping relative rarity will limit the damage...

I've got no internet in new cars but I'm always looking at old and interesting stuff. Usually with misty eyes as I imagine all the fun I can't have anymore.

Cars that have rocketed in value just aren't selling. Everything thinks all old cars are worth a fortune now so no one wants to reduce the asking prices but it's the same cars up for sale month after month.

How many people are willing to pay 20 grand for a ropey old Impreza with nothing but doom and gloom on the horizon?

As ever it depends on the car. Bristol's new pollution charge has killed the older diesel market. My independent garage/dealer dealer says it's bargainous for big cars, Audi S8 for S3 money. My 1.4tsi petrol superb is holding value well. Will be some bargain lifestyle vehicles (Transporters!) coming through soon....

I am super lucky to have bought in March 2020 and sold last month. £4k appreciation in 30 months. But then again I bought last week at a silly price.

That's the issue. I bought a van in 2019, its doubled in value despite being three years older and with another 20k on the clock.
But if I sold it what could I buy instead? The cost of the all the other vans has gone up too🤷‍♂️

No idea when they will fall but as said I think diesels will be the first to drop (unfortunately I have a diesel). My wife's we 2015 fiat panda is worth about a grand more today than we paid for it 2 years ago!

Lots of dealers have paid insanely high prices for used cars over the past 18 months-2 years. They won't be wanting to lose money on them so the prices will stay high.

The variation in used car prices is ridiculous. Was looking at selling mine a couple of months back, virtually identical age/spec/mileage cars had prices varying from £8k up to £14k!

At some point the prices will have to fall but when ?

I'm not sure they will.

I think the supply of new cars, typically sold on credit or HP is lower than it used to be.
Fundamentally new cars financial and environmental cost is rocketing.
The price of keeping public roads and parking spaces is also rocketing.

Therefore, I'm not sure they will reduce dramatically.

Just after I have to replace my current car, inevitably. It's only 9 years old but has done 162k and is getting hammered doing 90 miles a day right now, completely not what I bought it for. Did look into changing it earlier in the year but seeing as it's still valued at £2.5k I'd need to spend £7-9k+ just to get something newer and that would be only just. Crazy seeing as I paid £7.7k for it brand new in 2014 (Fabia II, 1.2 SE. Was a run-out model so £3k below list and £4.5k below the new model!) and any thought of that kind of deal now are non-existent. Even a basic Sandero is £12k whereas they were still under £8k back then.

Imagine if the ulez expansion in London happens next year the market will be awash with non compliant vehicles. Probably some bargains coming, if you’re happy with a diesel.

Hasn't happened in Bristol which went live last week. The dealers just buy them up, ship them to another part of the country without a LEZ and the prices don't change. Small dealers may well struggle unless they can shift them through auctions though.

When the recession bites and the market is flooded with ex lease cars which people have had to give up as they can’t afford the rent on them any more.

Manufacturers will just do what they did last time they had this issue: park them on an airfield and restrict supply to keep prices up. They have no interest in selling cars at a loss when they can just restrict supply and make less but still keep the profit coming in slowly. Only if a big manufacturer pulls out of the UK or dies completely will you see wholesale prices drop significantly.

As soon as I want to sell my car. See also property prices.

If more people move to hiring rather than owning cars that's always been a massive source of nearly news cars.

But surely the key driver of car price is general inflation, everything is going up, including wages (they will, slowly but surely) so people can pay more.

I need to shift my car and possibly not buy a replacement. Need to sort the wheels whilst off at xmas so if they could hold on just a little bit longer!

If I did buy new wheels it would be a little berlingo sized van.....so a recession and businesses shrinking/tanking might do me a double favour. Silver lining and all that.....I got the van that is my current self converted camper in the last recession for a silly low price from some poor bugger needing to liquidate an asset. I still feel bad about that.

Q4 2023 is likely the earliest that you'll see a general market shift. The semi-conductor industry is predicting business as usual by the end of Q3 next year so long as nothing else (covid/Russia/...) happens. That means that supplies should be almost at normal levels for most things by the end of the year, but it'll likely shift to the end of Q1 2024 due to Christmas and electronics goods around that time and to get things built, on ships and to markets.

I can't see why it would happen any time soon, the conditions that have caused the high prices we are seeing are still there and show no signs of changing. If anything they will get worse as access to credit becomes more restricted and expensive leading to more demand on the limited second hand market, forcing prices to stay high.

Talked with business manager from a dealership yesterday - someone I know personally.
Prices have fallen from their recent peak, are continuing to soften and that is expected to continue.

Chip shortage aside, I suspect we're also seeing a desire to hold onto ICE cars for as long as possible. Certainly at the more desirable end of the market. That'll keep second hand prices high for a while

When will the 2nd hand car market price fall ?

It started to fall just as the interest rates skyrocketed...

The market is swamped with over priced wrecks 2006/7 cars over going for over £4000 when last year these cars were half the price.

There are many cars out there still being advertised at COVID/chip shortage prices... They are NOT selling though!

The market is already about 10-15% down price wise on cars that are actually selling as opposed to those who are clinging on to what they think their cars were at the height of the market... It still has some way to come back down too.

Same can be said of house prices too... There's lots of houses out there advertised for sale at peak-pandemic prices, but they're not selling... Or at least if they are selling, it's for 10-15% under their advertised prices in many cases!

Obviously in both the car and housing markets, demand skews the value... A typical family hatchback value has fallen less than that of a luxury sports car % wise, as has a typical 3bed semi compared to a 5bed detached with double garage and half an acre...

As above, immediately after I buy one.. in January.. when my lease car goes back. The reverse situation played out when I sold my old car (and the wife’s car!) as we both went to lease EVs thru work just before prices went crazy. Sod’s Law.

I was digging thru some old paperwork recently and found the receipt for my old E90 325i. Bought it for £11k with 40k on the clock at 4 years old. Good spec with the 6 cyl engine in a nice colour combo. Unbelievable value when compared to the current market. You’re talking double for anything remotely comparable, maybe more. But a lot has happened in the ten years since I bought it.

Been watching the used car market intently the last few months as my 06 plate focus is on its last legs due to the clutch going and it not being sensible to replace due to the car being valued at £250 at most. Especially with a few other little niggles with the car.

I've noticed a small reduction in prices in the last month or so for cars that actually sell, but prices are still sky high. As chip shortages continue I dont see any real change until summer next year at the earliest unfortunately.

When the market gains all the cars sold to pay the bills for Xmas and heating 1st QTR next year. Especially vanity campers and 2nd cars

The garage next door to my bike shop has got a low mileage 2005 Carola up for sale. Granted it's a very well looked after car but 4k.!!!

Thanks for the opinions

There must be a VFM car that I’ve forgotten about £8000 max must be Auto and small to Medium size, Petrol and interesting!!?! If that’s possible. New as possible.
We have a qashqai main car.

Don’t want anything from the VW GROUP Dsg gearboxes aren’t reliable.

I’m coming from 300bhp

Inspire me !

Subaru Impreza 2012 2.0 auto ??? Any good ?

Unfitgeezer autotrader.co.uk have a volvo 2.4 https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202211282081086 too old?

I suspect we’re also seeing a desire to hold onto ICE cars for as long as possible. Certainly at the more desirable end of the market.

Really? EVs are flying off the shelves, and I assume it's people with money who'd be buying desirable cars in general.

Don't know about cars but van prices are starting to slip now

Not by enough for me yet, bit fingers crossed we'll be back to sane prices next year some time

Watching motorbike prices, maybe not long off? Or maybe it's just seasonal so it's hard to say.

Rationale, I'm looking at a bike that's £6500 new, but hard to get hold of (current deliveries are March unless you get lucky and find a canceled order in stock). So 'nearly new' prices have been ~£5999 (or more) for ages. But recently there's been one sat in a dealer for a while at £5.2k, and a few at £5.5ish and not selling (or a least not quickly). So we might be at the tip of the curve where prices are still high because no one wants to lose money, but no one is buying either.

But on the other hand, no one buys a bike in December in a normal year so it's hard to draw a conclusion.

Prices in Q4 always drop. Let’s see what happens in the new year once people have Christmas out of the way. Anything economical with low emissions, tax and clean air zone passable will remain high.

The problem with EVs flying off the shelf is that EVs are expensive, so a decent trade will be required for private ownership. If people don’t get that, they may stick until EV prices drop.

EVs used to be an easier sell as the energy/fuel cost offset the initial layout. It’s a harder sell these days and will get worse in April.

I'd imagine that the cost of liver crisis will suppress demand and push prices down since the dealers don't like stock hanging round and look for turnover at reduced profits rather than just sitting on a bunch of stuff that won't shift.

IANAEconomist, however...otherwise I'd have invested in a Ukranian flag company last year

I’d imagine that the cost of liver crisis

It's a truly offal combination of factors for some of the worst off, but I don't see how it affects the price of cars.

It’ll plunge the week before my new car turns up (ordered in June)

I’d imagine that the cost of liver crisis will suppress demand and push prices down since the dealers don’t like stock hanging round and look for turnover at reduced profits rather than just sitting on a bunch of stuff that won’t shift.

Sounds like he knows his onions

You're not kidneying.

Sounds like he knows his onions

I reckon it was just typical manspleening

Watching motorbike prices, maybe not long off? Or maybe it’s just seasonal so it’s hard to say.

Motorbikes are a completely different market... VERY seasonal, even more so than MTB and Road bike markets in the UK!

Rationale, I’m looking at a bike that’s £6500 new, but hard to get hold of (current deliveries are March unless you get lucky and find a canceled order in stock). So ‘nearly new’ prices have been ~£5999 (or more) for ages. But recently there’s been one sat in a dealer for a while at £5.2k, and a few at £5.5ish and not selling (or a least not quickly).

Buy it... It'll be £6k in Feb if it still hasn't sold...

The motorbike trade requires dealers to have steady nerves and lots of operating capital in the bank... But if they have both of those, they can sit fast on any stock they have going into winter knowing that they'll confidently sell it for £1k more in the spring!

I’d imagine that the cost of liver crisis will suppress demand and push prices down

I'll drink a nice Chianti to that! 🥂

I’d imagine that the cost of liver crisis

Probably, people just can’t stomach the prices.

the little lexus that's a prius in drag isn't quick, but should tick all those boxes..

or much more fun, the last shape renaultsport clio.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202212012196545

It is only worth what someone will pay for it, regardless of what the dealer is asking. This is really the heart of the problem.

Those online car dealers are starting to look pretty shaky. Cazoo were offering absolutely daft money for cars when I was looking to sell mine. They are making huge losses and warning about impact of recession. I would be very nervous buying a car from one of them now, what happens if they go pop between payment and delivery…

The converse of this is that it's easy getting rid of your own cars. I've sold our two (13 and 16 years old) recently. One was a complete non-runner. Together they fetched 3k. New car (very untrendy diesel, not ULEZ) was 6k. So it didn't cost that much to change really.

I usually get cheap cars and run them until they're fubared. I am not a car person. Genuinely don't understand how any car is fun unless you have your own race track or like visiting car parks late at night. I live in the South East though, not the Highlands or anything.

I usually get cheap cars and run them until they’re fubared. I am not a car person. Genuinely don’t understand how any car is fun unless you have your own race track or like visiting car parks late at night. I live in the South East though, not the Highlands or anything.

This is pretty much my attitude/practice and I'm in a similar position now we've got an 08 plate french diesel that stubbornly passed it's MOT again in October, meaning another year of cheapish transport, but I just know when something goes in the next 12 months it's going to be a bigger job than I want to pay out for.

I really would like to go to something newer a bit smaller and petrol (even used leccy is well out of my price bracket) but we need 5 proper sized seats and a boot and an auto gearbox, all of which bumps the prices through dealers. While private sellers are a bit cheaper, I think a few more people have started hitting the auctions and flipping from their front garden just as something to do during furlough/retirement. It's become easier to buy a knackered car for far more than its worth... I might just leave it for another 12 months pop some fresh tyres on the shitbox and see how 2023 goes...

08 is hardly a shit box. We keep our cars as long as we can, mainly as they are looked after. MrsF's V plate Yaris was sold after 19 years as she wanted something bigger - got a Qashqai 12 plate at about 4/5 years old, we've had it 8 now and it has cost nothing other than services, anti roll bar links and a lower engine mount, done by me (peanuts). Had my old Nissan Primera 2002 since 2003 - so nearly 20 years in my hands. Had a rear calliper replaced this year, and a front suspension knuckle which was £500 ish. (less than a month's lease on something decent).

It was running rough recently, but the car hadn't been used much as I'm cycle commuting - treaced to bad earth in rear light - where the fuel pump takes an earth - it's even all "canbus" in my old barge. It's an ace motorway cruiser, and big MTB hauler.

Unitl they go really wrong, it's way better to keep them going (and look after them) - far greener than a new lease car every three years that my sister and BIL do - or much more often recently (PS they can't fix cars though).

If you are handy, then keep/buy older. Even my old car is ULEZ !

got a Qashqai 12 plate at about 4/5 years old, we’ve had it 8 now

You are living in the future.

got a Qashqai 12 plate at about 4/5 years old, we’ve had it 8 now

You are living in the future

How did Labour do in the general election?

far greener than a new lease car every three years that my sister and BIL do – or much more often recently (PS they can’t fix cars though).

Do they send them to the crusher when the lease is up?

We have got a 2019 plate car coming to the end of its lease.

New car prices are ridiculous, and quite frankly electric cars even more so ridiculous and I really cant be bothered putting all the infrastructure in to my house only for it to be obsolete in 10 yrs time.

Which leaves us with a car that goes back in May (no option to purchase) £5k gets you naff all car in the 2nd hand market at the moment, but I am guessing no one wants to spend much money on cars at the minute so its a suppliers market and therefore prices are only going to keep going up!

I am hoping though that we might be able to get a monstrous big v6 diesel of some sort for pennies as city folk are all no longer allowed to drive them

Do they send them to the crusher when the lease is up?

Whooa there flower , talk like that doesn’t fit the pearl clutching narrative 🧐

Which leaves us with a car that goes back in May (no option to purchase) £5k gets you naff all car in the 2nd hand market at the moment, but I am guessing no one wants to spend much money on cars at the minute so its a suppliers market and therefore prices are only going to keep going up!

I am hoping though that we might be able to get a monstrous big v6 diesel of some sort for pennies as city folk are all no longer allowed to drive them

We're in a similar position. Our car ends next Sept and we'll probably end up re-financing the balloon.

We need a Diesel 4x4 to tow with and I hear the demand for these is dropping rapidly - so fingers crossed they will! 🙂

I really cant be bothered putting all the infrastructure in to my house only for it to be obsolete in 10 yrs time.

Yes they are expensive so I'm not trying to persuade you get one, but a charger can be had for £500 and you stand to save a lot more than that in a decade.

If you do average mileage, the extra cost of an EV lease compared to a diesel could easily be offset by the fuel saving. Our lease is cheap at £206, from before prices went nuts, but the commute is fairly short and even then it's saving nearly half the cost of the lease. And since we had to change our car due to an accident we'd have had to borrow money, and for anything we'd have liked (yes, privileged, looking at £4-5k cars) to drive we'd have been spending about the same in payments. Of course, if we had bought we'd have had an asset worth at least something at the end of the term.

So if you want to lease, it might not be as expensive as you think. Buying is a different equation though due to the scarcity of decent used EVs.

Do they send them to the crusher when the lease is up?

No, they sell them to someone else, who sells their car to someone else, who sells their car to someone else, and their old car goes to the crusher when it could easily have been kept on the road.

So yeah, it's not green to lease new cars every three years except MAYBE in the case of EVs.

An EV lease for anywhere close to £206 a month just isn't going to happen now.

The cheapest personal EV lease I can find that isn't an eUP city car is a Citroen eC4 which is £367 a month with no estimated deliver timescale.

I guess the mileage limit is a factor but I've based that on 12k per year which is touch and go for me. Even at 5k a year (well below the UK average) it only brings it down to about 250 a month with 9 months up front.

An EV lease for anywhere close to £206 a month just isn’t going to happen now.

Yes, as I said earlier. Cheapest is about £300 now, but as I said the fuel cost savings are pretty big so even then it might still work out for you depending on mileage.

You can get an e-UP for £300 and 8k miles a year which, if used for commuting, is about 15 miles each way which is about what we do. So you'd be saving something like £90-100/mo depending on the type of driving you have to do - those numbers are about right for us compared to a similar small petrol car, which are about £200/mo. So it's very roughly cost neutral on those terms. Upping the mileage to 15k doesn't add much to the cost but would increase the fuel savings so it probably becomes cheaper to get the EV.

Yes, as I said earlier. Cheapest is about £300 now, but as I said the fuel cost savings are pretty big so even then it might still work out for you depending on mileage.

Edited my post to clarify my assumptions on mileage so apologies for that, but I guess one of my issues is I find it hard to work out what my actual savings on fuel would be because of the fluctuating home energy prices and not knowing how much I'd have to use public fast chargers etc.

Do they send them to the crusher when the lease is up?

The trickle down economics in this case does work out in a way, more people buying new cars devalues older ones, makes them cheap for everyone.

The trickle down environmentalism doesn't. Buying a new car pushes down the prices of 2nd hand cars by increasing supply. Meaning otherwise viable cars are scrapped because they're economic write-offs. It also encourages over-consumption as households can afford 2, 3 or more cars, meaning more individual journeys and more parked cars cluttering up streets that were never designed for them. There's a finite number of cars needed in the country, and there's more than enough to go around most of the time.

So in answer to the rhetorical question, no, but for every new car bought, someone somewhere does.

I find it hard to work out what my actual savings on fuel would be because of the fluctuating home energy prices and not knowing how much I’d have to use public fast chargers etc.

Yeah it depends on the driving you do. As a commuter car or local town driver you can get away with a small city car and you can always charge at home. Ours has hardly ever been charged away from home because a 180 mile range is enough for most of our trips - but of course we have a backup diesel for holidays and work trips etc.

no one wants to spend much money on cars at the minute so its a suppliers market

I only did A level economics, but that sounds a bit off to me.

The trickle down environmentalism doesn’t.

If those new cars are EVs then it might be better to produce a new EV that might last for 15-20 years and get rid of an old petrol. Especially as our energy mix will become more renewable during that time.

Buy it… It’ll be £6k in Feb if it still hasn’t sold…

The motorbike trade requires dealers to have steady nerves and lots of operating capital in the bank… But if they have both of those, they can sit fast on any stock they have going into winter knowing that they’ll confidently sell it for £1k more in the spring!

I'm not 100% sure. It's only a CRF300. Keeping an eye on ebay and facebook there's seemingly a new 'floor' price for them every week. I think a LOT of them were bought by people watching Itchy Boots and then realizing they had 9-5 jobs with only 5 weeks holiday a year.

Offroad bikes in general have been silly the last few years, perfect storm of Kawasaki and Yamaha stopping production of their models entirely and covid meaning people wanted small commuter bikes and staycation toys. KLX250's that you could have bought for £1500 in 2019, have been selling for £3k+, before they discontinued production you could have picked one up new at a dealer for £3750!

Just under 5 years ago we sold a Fiesta 2nd hand for £10k.  In a very depressing way we could now buy that same age / model Fiesta for the same money 5 years later with twice the mileage 🙁

Currently the best deal we can find is a Fiesta on 2 yr lease for £260. Bit of a change from a top of the range BMW X1 2.0 engine with maintenance that was £330 pm. Similar Car today would cost us £600 +

johnners
Free Member
got a Qashqai 12 plate at about 4/5 years old, we’ve had it 8 now

You are living in the future

How did Labour do in the general election?

Forget the election - can you get me a Gray's Sports Almanac?

The 2nd hand market won't fall any time soon because leases are now crazy, so all these people with leases (80% of new car sales iirc) coming to an end want a cheap used car.

We have a two pronged strategy - other half prefers to lease (PCH) every three years as she doesn't want the risk of running up and down the country in an old car that 'might' leave her stranded. My car is a 2009 Mondeo that hasn't missed a beat since I got it at 15 months old. It stays until it decides to leave me!

We have the same end of leasing issue as others have mentioned, now extended by Volvo for another year (but can return at any time with 30 days notice). Replacing like for like would be minimum 50% more now than 3 years ago. EVs that are family sized are even more expensive, although I get the fuel saving bit.

We have just decided to replace the Volvo with a new Kodiac as 2nd hand prices were insane (Volvo wanted 29k for the 3 year old car that we are leasing). First time on a PCP scheme, which requires a big up front payment. The only reason that we are doing this is that Skoda had a zero % APR deal on the PCP, which makes a huge difference. We will keep that car for a long time though (I will take it on when the Mondeo dies) and that together with a fair discount on the RRP and 0% make it the cheapest long term option. Quite surprised the dealers were willing to negotiate on price tbh.