Prices.for vans....
Is it due to the phasing out of diesel, so everyone wants a diesel vehicle while they can?
Is it worth making the costly purchase and just taking it on the chin?
In the back of my mind is huge depreciation (due to the E push ).
Will government will hike road tax to force people away from them and thus the costly purchase is worthless !
CaddyMax 5 seater is my van of choice. Prices of the scale.
I am sort of hoping a good van now will last a while and be sought after in 5 year or so.
Is it worth making the costly purchase and just taking it on the chin?
I certainly did and don't regret it. I don't really know the why... but as there's not many about new, i can't see it helping in terms of price.
This is almost my specialist subject, I've been checking prices on AutoTrader for the last couple of years.
Used prices are slowing slipping now. Dealers have a lot more stock than they did and sales are said to be very slow.
So I'm sitting tight to see what happens. Something's got to give and I reckon used prices will fall further this year.
Don't know about new prices, though, if that's what you meant?
governments tend not to visibly s..w over large groups of visible people - look at the number of times they've failed to apply the fuel price escallator. So whilst lots of builders have diesel vans, I think you'll be fine. Buying one in a decade's time might be risky, right now it won't be.
Hard to tell if vehicle prices will stay strong. If the economy tanks (and surely a lot of people who buy vans will also be people paying mortgages so their disposible is about to plummet), so will vehicle prices, as will the increased availability of components to make new vans. the low second hand prices in the UK have traditionally been a global outlier, so they may be here to stay.
I'd say for a vehicle that's got no ev alternate (most vans right now), you'll be fine because at 10 years old there'll still be no 10-year old EV alternate.
So I’m sitting tight to see what happens. Something’s got to give and I reckon used prices will fall further this year.
But they're not going to drop by £5000 on a £15000 van, maybe £500 here, £1000 there... .however, how long do you wait.... All the time you wait, you don't have the van you want.
I'm keeping mine for 5+ years... if i'd have got the timing wrong and cost me £1000 more, that's £200 a year... Hell, i spent double that in fuel in Jan 😀
There are still problems with availability of new vans due to compounded long term effects of Covid, supply chain disruption, van recalls and other sundry issues,
The factory in Sevel, Italy where they make Fiat Ducato/Citroen/Peugeot vans has been beset with difficulties for well over a year. So much so that motorhome manufacturers are now using Ford, VW /MAN TGE, Mercedes, Renault as a stop gap to get products out there
Is it due to the phasing out of diesel, so everyone wants a diesel vehicle while they can?
Realistically commercial fleets are probably looking at 3/4/5 cycles of new vans before the "ban" comes in. It's 2030 before they need to be hybrids and 2035 before they're electric. It's a long way off yet.
2ndly, that would lead to an over supply of nearly new vehicles as everyone tried to buy a new one on the eve of the "ban", which there's not.
The limitation is still just more demand for vans than supply. Everyone from fleets trying to buy new ones stuck in post COVID waiting lists, or delivery drivers at the other end of the market.
Hard to tell if vehicle prices will stay strong. If the economy tanks (and surely a lot of people who buy vans will also be people paying mortgages so their disposible is about to plummet), so will vehicle prices, as will the increased availability of components to make new vans. the low second hand prices in the UK have traditionally been a global outlier, so they may be here to stay.
+1
Bangernomics is a strangely British phenomenon. On the continent a 15 year old Berlingo van has always been ~£2500, not £500. Not sure it's cultural, might be more that at 10 years old they stereotypically get shipped off to eastern Europe* which means that there's a floor price in the market. Whereas in the UK there's little or no market for old cars so they bump along from about 10 years old at little over scrap value.
*other markets are available
How through the roof are you talking? And do you run a business or get an EV on salary sacrifice? The ID Buzz would do the same thing and be much cheaper to run/fuel.
I bought mine in November 21, I'm sure I paid over the odds* but I'd wanted one for a few years but was never in the right finacial position. Then I had the money to buy it outright so went for it. We'll have it for a good few years, maybe even 10 or 15 so I donlt really care that I paid a bit too much. *I had been looking at vans for a couple of years so knew exactly what I wanted in different makes/models if the right one came up. The right one came up at a price I felt ok with and drove from Leeds to Reading to pick it up!
If you really want one and like Weeksy and myself it's a long term thing, then I reckon go for it. If it's gonna be on finance though and you're at your limit it might not be the best idea....
I don't see the prices dropping. I'm in the market for a Vito/transit sized MPV rather than a van, I'm looking at £30k for a 2018 model.
Caddys are cheaper, £25k for a 2019 model, and you can buy a brand new caddy/tourneo connect for around £30k.
Why don't I see prices starting the same? A couple of reasons:
New diesel vans are going to be very rare soon, and the EV alternatives have poor range and/or are massively expensive. A decently specced new diesel tourneo custom is £50k. A Citroen E-spacetourner in Allure spec is also £50k rrp and you can't buy a diesel version brand new.
For some people the EV model isn't suitable. New prices are ridiculous and not going to reduce my much, if at all. Which affects used prices.
Nearly new is my thinking not brand new.
It interesting hearing the comments.
I know its hard one to answer.
There is a fair price and rip off price .
Feels a bit like the later at this time.
There is a fair price and rip off price .
Well, what makes it a rip-off ? If it's the current market price it's the current market price and you either need a van or don't ...
But they’re not going to drop by £5000 on a £15000 van, maybe £500 here, £1000 there… .however, how long do you wait…. All the time you wait, you don’t have the van you want.
Prices have dropped by maybe £2 or £3k from the peak, on the vans I'm looking at.
I think there's possibly another £1k or £2k to go and my current van is still doing the job, so I'm happy to wait.
New diesel vans are going to be very rare soon
It's still 12 years off.
And realistically unless it's a builders van doing relatively few miles (i.e. a commute with tools rather than say a courier) I'd suspect most users, in particular big fleet buyers, will be queueing up for the cheaper to run electric version when they eventually arrive. They're definitely not buying diesels now intending to run them for ~25 years until pump diesel becomes harder to come by.
Yes supply and demand.
Ripoff probably too strong a word , its.my fault for liking/wanting the rarer stuff!
I will take it on the chin and get out in the market place .
Thanks for the input.
What is it you're after Aggs in terms of spec etc... We like a good van thread on here 🙂
It’s still 12 years off.
Depends on the manufacturer. As above, stellantis group passenger versions of the vans are EV only now. Commercial are still diesel but they'll be EV only far sooner than 12 years.
They'll stay pretty solid until everyone moves away from having stuff delivered the same or next day and goes back to going in a physical shop.....i.e, never!
My transit connect I bought 5 years ago at 22k miles is currently on 60k and is worth more than I paid for it in 2018! If only I could cash in! I want a slightly bigger van but obviously that ain't gonna happen unless I inherit a fortune
We've got a VAG Stealership Van centre round the corner a nice mixture of lifestyle busses and shiny panel vans, all of the ticket prices are astronomical New or Used but then they always were. I really can't see a compelling reason for buying a van with a VW logo myself, certainly not a financial justification.
I've noticed used Diesel car prices seem to be coming down (at least locally), might be more to do with where I'm looking, Used Vans don't seem to feature so much, I think there might be a scarcity issue at work though. Post Covid if it runs people/businesses are hanging on to them to use rather than chopping them in, especially as E-Van options are still a bit limited and not cheap.
If a competitively priced Van comes up locally you're probably going to have to beat all the local Evri/yodel zero hours drivers to the punch to get it.
Of course the main problem with buying a diesel van is that you've then got to fuel the bloody thing...
I am sort of hoping a good van now will last a while and be sought after in 5 year or so.
I think you're dreaming TBH; even the chattering classes are feeling the pinch now and having a nice lovely California on the drive will have limited value once the true cost of ownership starts to bite.
5 years from now pretty much any van bought today will be a rapidly depreciating asset, especially as the pace of electrification picks up the closer 2030 gets...
Just buy a rot box, stick some ply in the back and enjoy a couple of years of chucking the bikes in the back and ad-hoc van camping before reality sets in, in the long run it will cost you less.
Eldest_oab bought a rusty 100k, 2009 SWB Transit and converted to basic camper in early 2022.
Although it has cost him in maintenance (some welding, new brakes and wheel bearings) he has also covered a *lot* of miles and slept in it for weeks at a time.
Overall purchase, maintenance and conversion cost = what a friend has just offered him for it a year later, based on similar van values. And that is below what comparable vans are up for sale for online. It is now a rusty, 110k, 2009 SWB Transit with a homebrew conversion focussed on bikes...
It does seem that there is a gentle slide of what people are paying vs what is being asked, but there is just a lack of quality vans available.
Having recently bought a van last month, I cant see them dropping in price, but not by much. Vans <span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">around 3 years old that have a one time owner lease will always have a high resale value.</span>
But Id have thought the multi owner / higher milage vehicles may drop though - the difference between a 4k van and a 8/10k van isn't that much at the moment and I'd expect the bangernomics will level out again.
Just buy a rot box, stick some ply in the back and enjoy a couple of years of chucking the bikes in the back and ad-hoc van camping before reality sets in, in the long run it will cost you less.
Doing this, but on a smaller scale with an LWB Connect/Berlingo/Partner, essentially anything with a 2m interior load dimension. Even though the newer vans are better, it's a really significant investment for something that is only going to get used for occasional sleeping and not so occasional moving heavy, dirty (but not physically big) stuff around in. I'd rather have a smaller, cheaper van sitting on the drive than a Crafter or a Sprinter. Cheaper tax and better fuel economy too.
Just buy a rot box,
I did this last year, spent a grand on the vehicle, and a further 1k on general maintenance and consumables. It's currently on my drive not starting.....
I’d rather have a smaller, cheaper van sitting on the drive than a Crafter or a Sprinter. Cheaper tax and better fuel economy too.
I believe commercial vehicle tax is the same £290 no matter the size.
Still lots of demand for Euro6 stuff as the ULEZ expands and other cities do similar clean air zones. Big jump in price from a later Euro5 and an early Euro6 Transporter. Still long lead times and limited supply on new vans too.
I'm planning to keep on running my petrol import MPV for a few more years and hope for the electric vans to be reasonable as they come off leases by then.
I'm currently in two minds whether to spend a load of money on my rusty 20 year old VW T4 van or to get rid of it and get something else.
Really want to get another van but I'm right on the edge of the Bradford CAZ so it would need to be Euro 6 and my budget won't stretch to something that new 🫤
I bought a van in June last year and it's basically sat on the drive doing nothing. Various other things have wiped out my energy and enthusiasm. I've bought side windows and rear seats and they're still sitting in the garage. After 20 years of dirtbag vanlife I'm just not feeling it anymore.
If anyone wants a 2013 SWB Peugeot Boxer let me know. I'd let it go for what I paid (8K) just so I can stop thinking about it and do something else.
Is it due to the phasing out of diesel, so everyone wants a diesel vehicle while they can?
Is it worth making the costly purchase and just taking it on the chin?
In the back of my mind is huge depreciation (due to the E push ).
Will government will hike road tax to force people away from them and thus the costly purchase is worthless !
CaddyMax 5 seater is my van of choice. Prices of the scale.
I am sort of hoping a good van now will last a while and be sought after in 5 year or so.
I don't think van prices are high because everyone is clamouring to own a diesel! Slightly different in isolated cases where some petrol cars are climbing in value due to them not making anything like it ever again, generally big engined stuff.
Costly purchase? Depends on how much you want to spend. Buying a van is one of the best things we did, they're ace.
You mention buying a VW so depreciation is less of a problem than you think... there'll always be a demand for VWs, even in parts. The E-push seems to actually be putting people off depending on what you read. Saw something on Pistonheads the other day where dealerships weren't taking a nearly new EV as a PX and images of huge queues of people waiting for superchargers over xmas at service stations (if you believe what you read!) puts people off. And thats the EV risk at the minute - can the infrastructure keep pace with the buying of cars? Imagine how many cars go through a petrol station in an hour, taking a matter of minutes to fill up. Now imagine what'd happen if each of those cars needed to stay for even 10 minutes, let alone 20 or more to charge...
Road tax - no idea what this bunch of lunatics are going to do. Diesel vans are the backbone of business in the UK so any massive hike in tax will likely be met with quite a lot of noise.
Caddy Maxi is a good choice. Nobody knows what it'll be worth in 5 years but I've owned my T5 for 8.5 years now and its probably still worth not a lot less than I originally paid for it.
Going slightly off topic , Love the Caddymaxi ,have owned two, one for over 150,000 miles ,one for 70,000. Both pretty identical with the 140 bhp ,engine, 6 speed manual and hi spec and extras. Sold the last one to do what some people have said above ,bought a pretty old Merc Vito camper ,took a bit of a chance as its been round the world and back I would think! But an affordble way ro see if we like using a camper style/day van. Our use of vehicles had changed ( since pandemic) so its the bike mover and our weekend dsy/multi day van. I use the Mrs car as a run around. We share it where possible . The van seems to be reliable and proving itself so looking to change my Mrs car for a Maxi with 5 seats or a Maxilife or similar for the best off both worlds, the newer VW will log up the daily miles and run around and also be a useful bike mover and moving stuff.
The Vito will all the fiit out and bed out could not move a sofa for example! .I may remove the bed ,and was my intention on purchasing itn buts it's a comfy seat as well and mean I can take passengers, . Bikes do go in fine , esp with gap between front seats. The new small Merc looks a decent alternative, for a Caddymaxi XLWB one .Esp if in darker colour blue or black etc.. I had a Tournei connect in the past , some bad memories ...put me off a bit. My Mrs would not.lkke that, useful vehicle as well.
>I’ve owned my T5 for 8.5 years now and its probably still worth not a lot less than I originally paid for it.
I have a 7 year old T5 with 40k miles on it. WeBuyAnyVan price is at just shy off what I paid for it - and they haven't accounted for the wheels/suspension/insulation/lining/seat and the rest so private may well recover my outlay (excluding inflation, but still...!)
The price jump was insane at the time. I fortunately got a Transit Custom pre-pandemic, used it for 3 years and 10k miles then sold for 50% more than what I'd originally paid. (I didn't sell it to capitalise, it became a PITA after moving house)
I think prices will drop down back to original levels, ULEZ is already putting some pressure on in the South East for older vans, but over 2-3 years.
Prices will remain high until new supply delays reduce.
Last year my employer was quoting an 18month lead time for any new fleet van. One of the largest fleet customers are buying whatever they can get, rather than what they actually want. Smaller fleet customers are simply having to wait for orders to be built.
The knock on effect is customers who previously had a blanket x number of years or 100k replacement policy, now have vans far older than they had kept in the past, and often approaching and even passing 150k. Even if something major goes wrong, they'll pay up to the current residual value, rather than the previous 50% before classing it as uneconomically repairable, all due to the fact they can't get replacement vans.
3 years ago, if a 3+ year old Vivaro went bang, it'd be on a truck heading to auction. Now we're fitting new engines to 7+ year old Vivaros.
It's great for us, as we're getting lots of work out of it, but the knock on in the second hand market will probably take at least another year to settle down, if not longer.
It's looking like it'll be later this year before new van supply eases, and then it'll take a few months after that for older/high mileage vehicle to appear for sale, then probably over another year for fleet van replacement schedules to reduce back to previous age/mileage as fleet managers stagger replacements.
I've been after a newer Caddy Maxi to replace my ageing & tatty Caddy SWB for afew years now, prices are finally starting to drop but not by much, think its the covid bubble bursting and ULEZ ect. Its Crazy I bought mine for 5k back in 2015, 07 plate with 80k on the clock in very good condition. But now that buys something of the same age in average condition with 150k+
Something else I recently learnt is second hand parts supply for vehicles before 2006 are being commercially restricted/discouraged.
"Something else I recently learnt is second hand parts supply for vehicles before 2006 are being commercially restricted/discouraged."
Investjing in scrap yards seem a good business plan ha ha!
Reminds me of the scrappage scheme, a person I knew had a lovley 306 2l hdi . A really lovely car, But it was scrapped with the government incentive at rhe time. What a waste of a perfect car.
Where is the incentive waste less and keep things going and recycle parts etc thus to reduce waste.
I think the secondhand E market will be pretty terrible too as time goes on , thus more waste, only the better off can afford the newer vehicles and the older ones will be expensive to get fixed I would think have a reduced life span?
So a diesel /petrol car value may stay high I.e like the last run of the LandRover Defender!!?
