[Closed] Used car prices - would you upgrade now?

I imagine there's probably a few 'toys' for sale if not now then when furlough comes to an end.

But you do already own thediesel Avensis that will probably outlive us all?

I'm working on the assumption I'll be out of work August till probably the end of the year at least. Or if I'm unlucky, next month.

Yeah - keeping the Avensis is the most sensible choice. If it does eventually die / get expensive to keep running I would replace with another one, it's been great (if very boring) - and you're right re job security - I have no illusions as to a secure job either.

Actually that's all the input I needed, decision made, thanks !

If you put £11k in to a GT86 now with a view to selling in 6 months, expect to either wait a very long time for a buyer or take a bath on the price.

If you must buy for short-term, go under £5k and get something reasonably practical. This is the sort of money people actually have in cash and will spend on a major purchase through necessity. £10k is bank loan for many and people will be massively tightening their belts as the recession hits.

A GT86 is a niche market at the best of times.

If you want to keep longer term and have cash, I wouldn’t really worry too much.

Do 7 year olds fit in a GT86?

No plans to keep long term, and the funds are part of those needed to buy a house post divorce so need to be kept intact.

Re 7 yr olds - having looked previously (at cars) I think they would fit - but testing this out would have been one of the challenges.

Yep - bad plan. Cancelled. Diesel Avensis all the way. It is to be fair an absolutely brilliant car. I would (and probably will) eventually just get another one.

Actually that’s all the input I needed, decision made, thanks !

Don't listen to me, I have both a 16yr old C-Max and a 45yr old MG Midget!

I have both a 16yr old C-Max and a 45yr old MG Midget!

Perfect combination. Longer term I’ll probably do an Avensis and “something fun and classic” pairing too.

I’ve been looking at this one for the last few months, been looking at Porsche Cayman or BMW M2

There appear to be slightly more M2’s coming on the market privately than normal, and prices have dropped slightly.

On the other hand Porsche’s are just as rare and prices if anything gone up!

GT86

How about a WD41?

How about a WD41?

? Please say more

I want to buy but I reckon prices have a bit further to go yet, so I'm hanging fire for a couple more months...

So, from someone who works inside the industry....the industry valuation guide for used cars CAP has stated that they are not making alterations to used vehicle prices until lockdown is lifted.  Used car wholesale has all but stopped.  The industry is expecting quite a rapid demand for used car stock once we see some kind of normality, this will then see an increase in supply as end of contract vehicles can be collected and deflected.  This will be a short term spike as I expect lease vehicles will be extended rather than replaced.  The new car market is completely hammered, as a byproduct you actually see a strengthening in the used market.

The only area of the market I expect you will find a bargain is in private sale.  The car buying businesses are not really operating at the moment as vehicle logistics have all but ground to a stop.

Don’t expect a massive used car crash though, there is nothing to suggest this is going to happen I’m afraid.

Was looking at nearly new Leon estates when the lockdown occurred. I was tempted to rush into buying something but decided getting a car loan just as job uncertainty started wasn't a great plan.

I am hoping dealers will be looking to shift cars once the lockdown lifts and I might get a deal.

thisisnotaspoon
Subscriber
Don’t listen to me, I have both a 16yr old C-Max and a 45yr old MG Midget!

Oh dear not a new one 😉

Here's mine
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The car buying businesses are not really operating at the moment as vehicle logistics have all but ground to a stop.

Which is why I’m sitting twiddling my thumbs waiting for things to start moving - the business I’m in relies on vehicle movements to be able to do any work, repair and refurbishment of Motability cars. We’ve got a shit-ton of Enterprise vehicles sitting doing nothing as well, they’re held in storage until the dealers/auctions are open and able to take them, 500 at the moment, I believe.
Just enjoying the fact that we’re not going through a protracted wet spell, that would truly be rubbing salt into the wound!

Oh dear not a new one 😉

OK Boomer 😉

Need to spend some time tinkering, I want to strip all the steelwork out the bumpers to get the weight down and do a few other things. Upgraded all the suspension so it's now about the same height as the chrome versions, just stiffer at the front (-1" from the mk1/2/3 standard and stiffer, and the mk4 ARB). Brakes upgraded as far as possible without actually changing anything (grooved disks and yellowstuff pads).

So far so good, next up is possibly a warm cam and tubular exhaust manifold.

Do 7 year olds fit in a GT86?

I think it would depend, it's been a while since I looked at one, but I remember the back seats being tiny like in the usual "2+2" sports cars. They're pretty much child-sized seats for people just like the OP. (even if they're almost never used).

The problem would be getting car seats into them.

Car dealers are open, as in you can do it all remotely

I’m not seeing any bargains yet though to tempt me + if the car I can buy is a bargain then I am sure my current car won’t be worth as much too, so no real win

The problem would be getting car seats into them.

They're ISOFIX equipped, and from what I can see it should work OK - plenty of pictures on the internet of similar child seats in the back of an '86. It would clearly need an actual test though.

Anyway I've knocked the idea on the head for the moment - and later when lockdown is over the car wouldn't be practical enough for everyday life anyway (small boot, can't fit a roofrack or towbar so useless for biking trips).

Don’t expect a massive used car crash though, there is nothing to suggest this is going to happen I’m afraid.

One fifth of the workforce has been furloughed. Lots of those jobs in retail ain't coming back in a permanent way - the high street is dead. Once Q2 and Q3 financial results come in and the govt money runs out, we're heading into a proper recession. Plenty of folk with PCH/PCP cars are going to default. I see a glut of second-hand cars in a year or so.

Hope so - I fancy a GT86 myself at the end of the year and need to buy a 3k ish Fiesta/Polo as my daughters first car.

Oh dear not a new one

Not only that, it's got a Triumph engine.

One fifth of the workforce has been furloughed. Lots of those jobs in retail ain’t coming back in a permanent way – the high street is dead. Once Q2 and Q3 financial results come in and the govt money runs out, we’re heading into a proper recession. Plenty of folk with PCH/PCP cars are going to default. I see a glut of second-hand cars in a year or so.

Wouldn't disagree with the first part of the logic, we will officially be in recession at end of Q3 as I understand the definition. I don't know if that definitively translates into lower prices of used cars though. Whilst there will be increased availability, I see new leases dropping off pretty substantially, but people will still want a car. I'd see the lower end of the used car market picking up, as people move from lease/company car into bangernomics.

One fifth of the workforce has been furloughed. Lots of those jobs in retail ain’t coming back in a permanent way – the high street is dead. Once Q2 and Q3 financial results come in and the govt money runs out, we’re heading into a proper recession. Plenty of folk with PCH/PCP cars are going to default. I see a glut of second-hand cars in a year or so.

I suppose (from outside the industry anyway) it's hard to see if the factories shut down because there was no demand for new cars, or because their supply chains ground to a halt.

I can't see how the argument of reduced supply works, the reason there's going to be a reduced supply of new / 3 yr old cars is because no ones going to be able to afford one, and that'll apply at all levels. Like the OP my car's treading the line between old but functional, and just plain old and embarrassingly tatty and smelly inside. And doesn't really make sense for my usage.

I'm looking for a new motorbike.
Talking to a dealer last week, I asked if he thought prices were going to drop.
No chance. Once this is over, there are a lot of people thinking they may as well spend their money now,as they could be dead next year, and, with a shortfall in new vehicles,as the factories/importers have been shut, 2nd hand nearly new vehicles will be at a premium.

Feels like dealers trying to convince themselves market will remain strong if you ask me. There's already been thousands of job losses announced and as furloughing ends there will be many more to come.

Aren't the GT86's the ones that are a right bastard to do spark plug changes on, due to it being a boxer engine?

I’m looking for a new motorbike.
Talking to a dealer last week, I asked if he thought prices were going to drop. No chance

If he thinks you’re going to buy, of course he’ll say that. He wants you to buy now rather than wait and to pay as high a price he can stick.

Feels like dealers trying to convince themselves market will remain strong if you ask me. There’s already been thousands of job losses announced and as furloughing ends there will be many more to come.

Pretty much this

A lot of ageing stock sitting on forecourts not doing anything at the moment. The car industry itself is a fairly huge employer throughout Europe. When those jobs go and the jobs in the pretty huge supply chain go, then you can guess the rest.

Dealers can keep telling themselves that people will spunk their money on a car because they think they might die next year, but let's be honest, it's complete rubbish.

Huge recession looming, not many will be queuing up to buy an expensive lump of metal.

Plus, how many people will now look at changing the commute to wfh?

When we start attending the work premises again then i'll be looking to bike. I haven't driven my car in 4 weeks.

thisisnotaspoon
Subscriber
OK Boomer 😉

Need to spend some time tinkering, I want to strip all the steelwork out the bumpers to get the weight down and do a few other things. Upgraded all the suspension so it’s now about the same height as the chrome versions, just stiffer at the front (-1″ from the mk1/2/3 standard and stiffer, and the mk4 ARB). Brakes upgraded as far as possible without actually changing anything (grooved disks and yellowstuff pads).

So far so good, next up is possibly a warm cam and tubular exhaust manifold.

Born in 1965 so probably guilty as charged 🙂

Bought LWJ 235D in 1982 while a student, it was just off being past restoration.
After 4 years of cash strapped restoration I got it on the road.
There then followed another 6 years of gradual evolution culminating in a full BMC stage 4 1390 A series sprint cam spec engine with a titanium faced aluminium flywheel, Keith Dodd 1.5 ratio rockers, Dellorto DHLA 45 carbs, Alden mapped distributor, alloy rad & oil cooler, Mallory Fuel Pump & Regulator, RC 40 exhaust with Maniflow custom manifold. KAD Alloy 4 Pot Calipers & grooved disks. Custom hydraulic handbrake from Jacob Engineering who also made the Al-Ti flywheel, mostly ran Uniroyal Rain sports very grippy but slightly fast wearing.

Lets just say with 117 BHP and weighing just over 600kg it was fast enough 🙂

How about a WD41?

Under-rated post! +1

Can't comment on the way prices will go but.....eldest son took on a fresh lease motor as this all started, made redundant , eventually started a new job on less money which he hated then furloughed, now looking to default on his car and wanting a cheap S/H runabout. Middle daughter works at a Toyota dealership doing really well, gets furloughed, now they are negotiating with staff to sign zero hours contracts and work crappy shift patterns after having what was a relatively cushy number.Youngest daughter started at Metro bank, furloughed till the end of June no messing ! what this says I don't really know but that's three young people in my family alone who are suddenly up against the buffers through no fault of their own. forgot to add , they all have partners who have been furloughed so the effect is doubled, luckily Mum and I are in 'reserved' occupations so we are helping as much as we can but it's a strain mentally and financially, just sayin'.

I always find it interesting how people have such strong opinions on the motortrade, based on little understanding.  When someone who has worked in the new and used vehicle supply channels gives some professional advice (based on experience and significant expense around modelling and study) it’s just ‘dealer pretending it’s all roses and champagne’

if we look at the last recession, used car prices held firm and in many cases increased. New car sales have been significantly falling month on month for over a year now.  The corona pandemic has hammered this further.  The market is not really ready to start transacting new vehicles online yet, it’s also hampered by legislation around financing which doesn’t fit the new vehicle sales process.  Historically when new car sales have slumped used car sales have seen an increase.  So what are we expecting....further reductions in new vehicle registrations; reduced retail sales of new cars, lease extensions, reduced daily rental registrations.  What does this mean, well a reduction in used car supply! Believe it or not people still buy cars in recession, With reduced supply comes stability in pricing.  I also hear people mentioning ‘cheap luxury driving’ again, this doesn’t correlate into reality. Recessions don’t tend to hit wealthy people in the same way do they!

Yes there will be people defaulting on finance agreements, but those people still need to remain mobile.  So they look to buy cheaper cars to fulfill their transport needs (generating sales) their repossessed car is then sold through wholesale channels and then retailer on.

you can stamp your feet and call car dealers stupid all you like, however at this moment knowing what we do now, that’s how (in simple terms) the used market is looking. It’s going to be tough, but expecting huge price reductions just isn’t going to happen, I apologise that’s one of the keyboard experts may not want to hear that, I’ll happily come back on here in 6 months and swallow shovels full of humble pie, but that ain’t going to happen.

I spoke with BMW this morning about trading in for a new model and was told it would be a six month wait minimum due to supply/covid issues

So the secondhand market will probably be artificially high (much like bikes) for a while as everyone is in the I want it now mentality

So the secondhand market will probably be artificially high (much like bikes) for a while as everyone is in the I want it now mentality

Which is what our place is waiting for, along with the other four branches - however, it needs the auction sites to open because that’s where many of the cars go to, others are bought direct by dealers online, but they obviously need customers to sell the cars to!
As others who’re more familiar with the retail side are saying, while the new car sales are way down, people still want to replace old cars, or upgrade for family reasons, so ex-fleet cars and rental cars are sought after because they’re generally low mileage and regularly serviced.
It’s going to be very difficult to predict just how busy we’re going to be once we’re given the go-ahead to reopen, whenever that is...

Can’t see auction sites opening as per pre virus for sometime, car auctions are busy public places after all.  I can see them opening operationally very soon given the latest announcement.  Which will allow cars to be processed for sale.  Vehicles will then be sold via online routes to market.  So they Can be sold from defleet centre.   Which is not new to Some areas of the industry, but will be a shift change for the majority.   The issue is retail....dealerships are still not going to be fully open, however I guess we will understand how this is going to look over the next few days/weeks.