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From Kimbers on the other thread
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815810819403239523
The electoral map is from before Biden dropped out, but shows the impact of the electoral college system on what is required to beat Trump
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1814020221151109238
I’d say it’s about 50/50 right now but it will take a few weeks for the dust to settle to see any kind of trajectory/trend I think.
I put a £20 bet on her winning last night, potential return £55. Same bet today will only return £50, so from that you could say her chances have increaced in the last18 hours or so.
Same bet is now returning £47.50
Harris not getting her own thread is everyday sexism.
[ insert Unicode emoji of winking face ]
It's anti-wokery gone mad !!
Harris has to be consistently competent to pull it off, those swing states need a lot more votes
A good convention, smart VP pick, keep poking Trump on age, felonies, rape, eppstein- he reacts badly when triggered, imprortantly the right policies, including buildings some bridges with the tech bro- some of whom think trump will best serve their interests...
If her numbers keep rising Trump will lash out, he'll blame Vance and if he fires him that will upset Musk & Thiel who are bankrolling maga....
Unknown factors are, investigation into Trump assassin attempt, Ukraine, gaza - Biden would surely love to go out with a peace deal, immigration and the border, Trumps legal woes, the supreme court(their more far right rulings actually help Harris), the yellowstone super volcano erupting....
Her speech was only 17 minutes, as opposed to trumps rambling 90 minutes. She was concise, confident and energetic.
I think she's has a really good chance of beating Trump.
P.S. I've never been into betting but how do I place a bet on Harris online?
Cheers guys.
We are not going back! An effective slogan.
Wait until he finds out she's a woman. He's going to be very upset
As posted elsewhere, please keep this thread as the current one. I can't remember where I've made points across the three 🙂
I'm liking the polling kimbers posted in the other thread. Id nick and post them here but I can't embed pics/ X at the mo.
I'm feeling much more positive that trump can be beaten now.
I wont lie, it's in large over for to Ukraine. Trump would sell them out over pure petty revenge due to the8n not playing ball in giving him info on Hunter Biden*.
Imagine being petty enough to sell out a while country over that. Oh, with a bit of dictator envy over Putin added in!
* I think that was the issue?
Donald Trump is taking some hits:
21st July Joe Biden withdraws, 22nd Kamala Harris has a majority of Dem support for her nomination, 23rd Elon Musk never said he was donating $45 million per month to Donald Trump https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-says-he-never-said-hell-donate-45-million-trump-2024-07-24/
Harry Enten, CNN's senior data reporter has crunched some numbers. "JD Vance first VP pick since 1980 to have net-negative rating after announcement" (short vid) https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/23/politics/video/jd-vance-data-ebof-digvid-enten
^^ It would be great if Vance plays a significant part in the defeat of Trump.
Totally self inflicted and hopefully buries Vance's political career too.
A week is indeed a long time in politics. A week ago I thought Vance seemed a rather good choice - a mini me with the same vile MAGA views, just a bit younger and able to string together a sentence that makes sense (even if you hate the intent). Now.....not so much. If the Dems get the next phase of this operation right and choose someone which broadens their offer the GoP will look like they really shot themselves in the foot.
Dems have to get the balance right here - they can't let up on telling it as it is about Trump (and Harris has been better than Biden so far on that) but also make sure they stand for something other than anti Trump. Impressed with her first speech.
Wait until he finds out she’s a woman. He’s going to be very upset.
https://twitter.com/IsaacHayes3/status/1815903320411648431
JD Vance definitely seems like an awful choice. A grifter without the charm.
Trump’s backers must be desperately looking for dirt on Harris right now.
Vance wasnt even Trump's pick, he was the preferred choice of Sacks, Thiel & Musk, the silicon Valley crypto****ers https://www.seattletimes.com/business/how-a-network-of-tech-billionaires-helped-jd-vance-leap-into-power/
When Trump turns on Vance & fires him, its going to really piss off the techbros
One thing Ive noticed about Harris is that she sends Trump fans into a rage, more than Clinton did, its just an undefined hatred of her sex, her sexuality (she dated some guys some time) and her cheery demeanor, this extends from Trump to Rep senators to twitter incels and makes them say stupid stuff that doesnt help them
What's with the Kennedy loon? Why stand at a cost of millions, he's never winning. I don't understand
Re Harris, she needs to work on the public speaking. I can't quite put my finger on it but a bit more Pamela Landy would be good.
Well at the moment I think he is more likely to apeal to likely Trump voters, so it might not be a good idea if he withdraws or accepts an offer to join Trump.
Kennedy just wants some power
Anyone seen the dirt the the Daily Fail have posted about Harris, and her great great great great Grandfather? Really really scraping the barrel, again.
(I'm not posting the link either)
Yep. They need to have a think about WHY her great great great grandfather slave owner had multiple heritage ancestors. It may not be the "Gotcha" they thinl.
Even Kevin Mccarthy is calling out the racist/sexist attacks as counterproductive
https://Twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1815860996784697572?t=rJhlHhZqcd9hCba7wrPwrg&s=19
What's the betting trump does exactly that at his rally later?
I don't know that much about US politics but the election's often viewed (probably more so here than in the US) as Harris vs Trump, but surely it's much more than that because they are just the head of the two parties, much the same as here.
There must be many people liking the policies of one party but not liking the candidate or vice versa, who do they vote for? Would be nice to get some views of people in this situation or just regular folk in the US: how much is the fight for voters really about personality and how much about policy? The view we get from the media is probably pretty skewed.
"I really want to vote Trump, such a great person and Hulk Hogan really swung it for me, but the Democrat's policies work better for me and my work/family/health/whatever, oh what do I do?"
I don’t know that much about US politics but the election’s often viewed (probably more so here than in the US) as Harris vs Trump, but surely it’s much more than that because they are just the head of the two parties, much the same as here.
Genocidal terrorist and apartheid oppressor Netanyahu currently getting a standing ovation at US Congress. Absolutely sickening. He should be arrested on the spot. An absolute monster.
…and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie and they lie…
…and they get a standing ovation for every lie.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4788663-andy-ogles-impeachment-articles-kamala-harris/
It's like a badge of stupidity honor for these Reps. "I've filed articles of impeachment. Love me Donald, like the sons you, oh" I can smell his desperate neediness from here.
her great great great great Grandfather?
I’ve been to the year 2024. And his great great great granddaughter is pretty fine.
how much is the fight for voters really about personality and how much about policy? The view we get from the media is probably pretty skewed.
For the politically focused there's a lot more than just the Presidential race happening. State elections, House of Representatives and Senate elections will also be happening. Along with judicial votes for state judges.
But for a massive part of the US population it's going to be Trump vs the liberal left. For example, the mil is not politically focused. She's listening to some shitty RW radio station in her car and believes some ridiculous things that we have to explain are wrong to her.
How the voters get information is going to effect their interest. My ballot is huge. There's a lot to vote for on it. And it takes effort to research the candidates outside of the President.
Speaking to work colleagues and customers in the US is a real mixed bag. The warehouse workers on low wages all love Trump and it is all about the cost of living for them. That’s it, no reading manifestos or looking beyond what Trump says. Quite frightening tbh. Especially when I, as an outsider, appear to better informed than they are. Just from being on here ?
The customers I speak with, those who take the time to look beyond the Presidential candidate are overwhelmingly in favour of the Democrats. A couple prefer the Republicans and are more inward looking as a whole. Not much different to most other countries I should imagine.
I wouldn’t let anyone vote for a party. I’d have a screen with several questions. Your answers would lead to “well done you’ve just voted for X party” Mainly because people can’t be trusted to look beyond their own needs or view electing a government the same as. voting on the ****ing X factor or Love Island or some other shite.
interesting article in the Guardian
if she really can enthuse younger voters thats a real boost for her
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/24/kamala-harris-gen-z-voters
Nevada man accused of leveling death threats at judges in DC, NY
And his defense lawyer just argued that everyone's doing it now so it must be ok.
Defense attorney Jeremy Baron said there was no indication that Gear had taken any steps to actually carry out any of the alleged threats.
“The statements are potentially concerning. They are, however, just statements. There’s no indication that there was any actual, concrete plans tied to those statements,” Baron said.
The defense lawyer also claimed it’s now common for people to make extreme comments about politics without having any intention of backing them up. “It is a heated political climate right now. And I think there are many people who make statements on the internet, or over the phones, behind the cover of anonymity when that doesn’t actually reflect how their behavior would be,” Baron said.
Anyone seen the dirt the the Daily Fail have posted about Harris, and her great great great great Grandfather? Really really scraping the barrel, again.
Apparently she has a thing against plastic straws too and may try and ban them - the monster!
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1815193159758160329
The Telegraph & Mail all seem to be dunking on Harris, I suspect they want clicks from Americans as much as keeping the pro-trump Reform crew on-side
Lots of hot takes generally, the truth is that until the Dems have actually nominated their candidate and (presumably) Harris has picked a VP & laid out policies at the convention which will be late august, the polling will be pretty wild & pointless to try and call it now.
So....my hot-take is that the polls will show its close nationally but the important swing states will still be breaking for Trump, but by less than now & that Harris will have a reasonable chance of making up ground before November. First debate is early September I guess that will be make or break.
Trump seems to be backing out of a debate with Kamala - scared of a black female, not a good look for the misogynist racist right wing maga nut jobs!
scared of a black female, not a good look for the misogynist racist right wing maga nut jobs!
For some reason that sentence made me think of Harris telling Trump to "squeal little piggy" and I'm concerned I found it amusing.
It certainly seems Harris is in a much better position than I thought she would be, and I've never been happier to be wrong. Politics is about momentum, and given that Trump was getting shot at a week or so ago, the turnaround is ridiculous.
She hasn't really done anything yet, it just goes to show what an awful candidate Biden was that with the shooting surge Trump got, that Biden just dropping out of the race has caused such a swing.
Lets hope it continues, but after the dust settles the democrats have to take responsibility for how absolutely ****ing awful the candidates they have wedged into the recent election races are. Give people better options and they will vote for them.
Harris is certainly doing a lot better than I expected, maybe that's because the Vice President role is is largely ceremonial and requires the occupant to simply mouthpiece what the boss is saying, the job literally mean's that you have to keep yoir opinions to yourself.
She has managed to change the public perception of her overnight with that acceptance speech, concise, energetic and humorous. She looks really, really confident and relishing the fight.
A week is indeed a long time in politics.
Kamala Harris has firm views on Benjamin Netanyahu and the cease-fire framework
I hadn't realised that Netanyahu was invited to address Congress by the majority Republican Representatives, although Donald Trump has been critical of Netanyahu since October
Hopefully she'll seize the opportunity to pull voters wavering on Gaza back into her orbit, especially with Trump's history e.g. declaring Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel in 2017, contrary to most countries
Two-minute read https://theconversation.com/benjamin-netanyahu-addresses-the-us-congress-and-receives-a-very-mixed-reception-expert-qanda-235385
how much is the fight for voters really about personality and how much about policy?
It's ALL about personality and nothing about policy. That's how someone like Trump can win. He says a load of encouraging sounding things that have no substance - there is no policy, and even if he suggests something that sounds like a policy there's no plan to implement it. But large chunks of the electorate aren't able to pick this up. Candidates with a moral compass won't just lie or bullshit to get votes, they will talk about what's possible, but if you're unencumbered by conscience you can say what you like, win, and then persuade people you've done ok.
I see Obama has finally come into the fold after surprisingly not endorsing the first black female nominee...... maybe he was secretly hoping that position would fall to his wife! However with Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, Clintons and all the other senior democrats very vocal about her it was only going to be a matter of time. That means she'll deffo get the nomination now.
How long do we think Vance has?
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1816616984311951596?t=DJZhe3KkdYSTncmP7USbxA&s=19
even tho I said ignore polls until after convention...
Harris has her work cut out, but I think she can do it
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1816813761723793415
Harris has trolled her Republican rival after he backed out of a proposed television debate with her, asking on social media: “What happened to any time, any place?”
Trump had previously used those words to lay down the gauntlet to Biden but now appears to have cold feet about taking on Harris, who accused him on Thursday of “backpedaling” on his commitment to a debate provisionally scheduled for September 10 to be broadcast on ABC.
Trump’s campaign team subsequently confirmed that he would not face her – at least not yet – blaming Democratic instability for the U-turn.
Trump obviously knows Harris would run rings around him in a fair debate...
and the whole Vance sofa joke thing.......
reality is just that much better
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1816849447407456694
As if there was any real doubt about Obama supporting Harris.
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1816760809193677069
It felt more like they were intentionalyl dripfeeding the endorsements- before Biden dropped out it was realyl conspicuous that none of the people saying "Biden must step down..." were also saying "...in favour of Harris" and I took that as basically an anti-endorsement but at this point it definitely feels much more like a planned, slow roll out.
Watching teh "vance *ed a sofa" thing grow in realtime on social media has been fun though. AP releasing a fact check saying "no he didn't * a sofa" and then taking it back down again was a highlight. Especially with how quickly all the people who usually hate factcheck websites embraced it when it first appeared.
Yeah I agree The Obama endorsement was a political timing thing looking at it after the fact, and agree Haris has her work cut out...
But she seems to be relishing it, and she's very coherent, which is a nice breath of fresh air.
Plus she can throw a lot of mud at trump, validated, proven and known mud...
All trump has is, well, all he ever had... a load of lies and un-truths, at best, so I'd cautiously agree he's already reached peak popularity with that old chesnut...
It's hers to win and his to lose as long as she doesn't drop any clangers and keeps the message strong, on point, consistent, and actually truthful.
It will be an interesting few months in the run up... espesially the huge donations that have landed since she became the front runner...
I note the trump lobby are trying to block the dem donations as Biden said he's not running, and they are crying foul play (supprise supprise), I'm not sure if that's a goer, though as no formal dem candidate has been announced yet, even though it 99.99% will be Harris.
Saw a tweet earlier in the week (can't see twitter on my phone) saying that a zoom call to rally women of color, in Georgia I think, on Monday was originally slated for 1000 participants, but after Harris became front runner over the weekend it was over subscribed and they had to increase to 40k participants.
I think there is a lot of possibility in the female vote and amongst people of color that we aren't yet hearing about that Harris can mobilise.
The whole abortion issue and now the Vance cat lady thing is going to be a problem for Trump
Don't underestimate the absolutely insane lengths the Republicans have gone to to gerrymander districts and make it harder for their opponents to vote
https://www.statista.com/chart/21313/most-gerrymandered-districts-us/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54532189
Traditionally a party's convention where they get to unveil thier candidates and get a week of almost blanket coverage to get their message across marks the high point of thier polling.
The fact that Harris is already rapidly closing the gap and completely shifted the narrative from where where we were a week ago is remarkable, we also still have almost a month to go before the DNC.
Vance was picked purely as an attack dog to go after Biden, his whole reason for being on the ticket is now gone and his extreme anti-choice stance (he's far more outspoken on this than Trump) is going to be a real liability against a female candidate.
Its not a done deal by any stretch but suddenly the whole energy of the race has changed and the Democrats are making all the running it's a complete 180 from a week ago.
38500 people registered to vote in the 48 hours after Biden's announcement, the largest number in this election cycle, a 700% daily increase. And 83% of them were 18-34. 0.0% of the people who made up that increase are going to vote Trump...
(you often hear people complain about youth turnout- it was 50% in 2020 compared to 66% across the whole cohort. But that also means they're the least tapped resource. It's not that they're going to be easy to mobilise but in this climate it is one hell of a lot easier to motivate one new voter than it is to switch 1 voter from red to blue.)
a zoom call to rally women of color, in Georgia I think, on Monday was originally slated for 1000 participants, but after Harris became front runner over the weekend it was over subscribed and they had to increase to 40k participants.
Yeah, yeah, they crashed Zoom, so what? The Republican convention crashed Grindr, they aren't making a big fuss about it.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1817007890496102490
Yikes!
Can you imagine a candidate in any other (sensible) country saying this and not being immediately binned?
Came here to say the same thing - he said the quiet part out loud...
Is that for real?
if so, wow.
Well I've seen it said that clip is taken "out of context" but there's no way I'm watching the whole thing to check. Anyway, even if it is out of context the Democrats should be all over it along with their support in the media.
It feels like all Harris has to do is follow Starmer’s Ming vase strategy and Trump will keep saying stupid stuff until he campaigns himself out of the race for all except the MAGA loons. And there’s not enough of them to win.
Yikes!
Can you imagine a candidate in any other (sensible) country saying this and not being immediately binned?
In that room were thousands of Americans who are salivating at the prospect of an authoritarian Christian takeover. He's a showman, he's good at giving people what they want to hear and that's exactly what he was doing.
The problem is much deeper than just Trump, where Trump seems fairly unique is his ability to sell that agenda to the American people, the more the mask slips over the next 4.months the more chance the Harris campaign will have to energise the anti-Trump vote and chip away his more moderate supporters who generally just want lower taxes.
Trump is a profound narcissist so the temptation to whip up the adulation of his loyal hardcore supporters, at the risk of alienating his more critical supporters, must be hard to resist.
And yeah hatter as you suggest it could be his undoing.
Yikes!
Can you imagine a candidate in any other (sensible) country saying this
Jeeeezus Christ. On a stick.
J. D. Vance has a burnt monkey testicle problem.
https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1817187244916330972
I wouldn't be surprised if Vance was replaced by next weekend.
As dead cats go, Vance is a pretty good one
Trump tells supporters they won’t have to vote in the future: ‘It’ll be fixed!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/27/trump-speech-no-need-to-vote-future
Bye bye democracy!
It's nonsense but it makes sense in his head & his supporters just hear what they want to hear
even tho I said ignore polls until after convention…
Harris has her work cut out, but I think she can do it
My heart sunk when she was endorsed because I know sentiment towards her is not overtly positive. But listening to her speak, it's a bit, wow, normal politician... Exactly the thing Americans are calling out for. I've no idea if it's going to cut through but there's hope that the voting public are feeling the same way. I see a glimmer of light.
bottom of that Guardian article
This article was amended on 27 July 2024. A part of Trump’s speech that was unintelligible was deleted.
Does that leave much?
It's as if someone (tried) describing the plot of The Handmaid's Tale to Trump, and he thought "Great idea! Bigly great!".
But listening to her speak, it’s a bit, wow, normal politician…
I agree.
Exactly the thing Americans are calling out for.
But are they?
This article was amended on 27 July 2024. A part of Trump’s speech that was unintelligible was deleted.
Ah that's interesting. The article originally said that trump had said that he wasn't a Christian but that wasn't what I heard and I couldn't believe for a second he would have said that