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Seems like our own political crises are trivial compared to the US. Looks like the MAGA brigade are about to take control of the congress and Trump is probably a shoe-in for 2024. And then I read the article below yesterday which doesn't provide much hope. None of it is a surprise though when you look at the state of the democrats. I worry for friends who live in the US.
It's not great but your usual catastrophizing is clouding your thought processes.
Go for a little walk and get some fresh air
It’s not great but your usual catastrophizing is clouding your thought processes.
Yea, this.
Friends in the US think our politics is mental.
There is no 'civil war' looming.
While there's certainly been an uptick in political violence, and there's evidence that the GOP are at least not actively discouraging it, a civil war would indicate that there are groups on both sides of the political divide that think that their only remedy is violence, and I don't think the USA is there yet.
Next, where is the divide? The hotspots are all geographically spread (Michigan, Colorado, Alaska, Pennsylvania) , there are no defined borders that can be easily staked or claimed, or no single issue that is motivating a mass movement on either side, neither the Democrats or the Republicans really have a issue that is dividing the population to such a degree as organised violence.
The American right are noisy and have a massive on-line presence fo'shure, but there are plenty of IRL Republicans who're looking at their party in bewilderment.
then again...
They say that every few years, California will break away and so on, never happens because it's just not viable.
Same with Trump coming back, if he does, it won't be because of a rising right wing, it'll come from the lacklustre display the US see from Joe Biden and his team, as well as the lack of any likeable republican candidate.
The Republican voters always vote for them, same as Tories over here, it's just how likeable and trusted the Democrat candidate is that'll get their voters out and voting, weirdly, similar to Labour on our side.
Next, where is the divide? The hotspots are all geographically spread (Michigan, Colorado, Alaska, Pennsylvania) , there are no defined borders that can be easily staked or claimed, or no single issue that is motivating a mass movement on either side, neither the Democrats or the Republicans really have a issue that is dividing the population to such a degree as organised violence.
Also, for the most part the anger is directed upwards, not at each other.
Liberals are protesting outside state capital buildings.
Republicans are protesting outside state capital buildings.
They're not generally throwing stones at each other apart from the occasional 5th amendment militia nutter.
Didn’t daz also start the covid thread with a similar ‘should we be worried’ opening post…
Remember how that one turned out
Just saying…
Civil war is massively hyperbolic, and I don't think Trump is a shoo-in by any means.
But I certainly wouldn't rule him out and I honestly couldn't predict it either way now. Also, I have an inkling (and hope TBH) that Biden won't be on the ballot paper in 2024.
Axl says no.
Hasn't Biden already confirmed his running!?
Why haven't charges been brought against the orange nutjob? Maybe they're waiting for the right time but I wish they would pull their finger out.
Civil war is massively hyperbolic, and I don’t think Trump is a shoo-in by any means.
He is in many ways secondary. Its the gaming of the system at the state and lower levels which is problematic. When people are going for positions specifically on an antidemocratic stance its going to cause issues.
Probably not civil war more a nonfunctioning society though.
Hasn’t Biden already confirmed his running!?
I believe he's reported to be prepping, but has not confirmed.
I would expect a fair bit of pushback within his party.
One thing that is happening is that the Republicans have a post mid term revenge list for anybody who has slighted them...sorry; not done what they want. So they are talking about even the director of parks and REC is in their firing line. Oh; and an immediate end to the investigations into the Capitol riot and anything impacting on Agent Orange.
Its the gaming of the system at the state and lower levels which is problematic.
Very much so, though also the Supreme Court. This will take decades to reverse though right now the opposite is happening. I really don't know why we don't hear more noise about this? I guess it doesn't make that much difference to most folks in their daily lives? Godwin init?
The Coming Storm on Radio 4 is worth a listen. As is The Name is DeSantis, which is on now. Apparently he's a "smart Trump" . Which isn't saying much.
The Coming Storm on Radio 4 is worth a listen.
Definitely.
My lad came back from the States in 2019 and said there seemed to be two irreconcilable sides to US politics/society,but as ever,the numbers wanting to solve this by civil war is a tiny, albeit dangerous, minority.
It’s not great but your usual catastrophizing is clouding your thought processes.
Did you read the article? I'm not catastrophising, just re-posting what I read which was quite alarming. As the people in that article say, it won't be like the 19th century civil war, it'll be a localised guerilla war with militias openly attacking federal infrastructure and ethnic groups. With Trump in power again you can be sure that will go unanswered by the federal govt. The future in the US looks extremely bleak from where I'm standing.
Who picks their candidate for 2024 first? that could be the decisive factor.
And does Biden get the absolute decision on whether he runs for a second term or is there still an internal vote/decision made by the party? Incumbent is normally worth a few percentage points, but he has overseen a number of problems (only some of which are his fault) so candidates popularity is going to go up and down more than a season of love island.
We have friends who have just left the States (Oregon) after about 15 years there and moved to France as they did not like the way things are going and did not want to continue to raise their family there.
And does Biden get the absolute decision on whether he runs
It's usually convention that a sitting president runs unopposed, but there nothing to stop someone challenging him. Who though? Sanders is too old now and there's very few others who look like they can connect with the white working class.
The republicans are pursuing a nakedly undemocratic strategy of voter suppression and non-acceptance of election results, alongside a transparently racist white supremacist agenda. If that doesn't alarm people nothing will. If American liberal society is anything like the responses on here then they're sleepwalking into catastrophe.
It says a lot when you can read a post from certain individuals and know who wrote it without looking at their name
Everything looks extremely bleak from where I’m standing.
FTFY
🙃😜
It will be civil war when the hard recession hits.
FTFY
You don't think things look bleak? Currently in Egypt the UN secretary general is warning about a one way ticket to environmental armageddon. Here in the UK we can't hang on to a govt for longer than a year or two and our current one seems to want to drive us into a depression. In Europe it's not much better with Germany facing a potential depression and energy blackouts and the far right in control in Italy. And in the US they're about to elect a bunch of mysogynist gun nut white supremacists. And then there's Ukraine..
Doesn't matter though, everything's peachy 😳
The republicans are pursuing a nakedly undemocratic strategy of voter suppression and non-acceptance of election results, alongside a transparently racist white supremacist agenda.
They have been doing this (with interruptions for the two Bush presidencies amazingly enough) since Nixon, and arguably Reagan was just as bad as Trump for dog whistling at White Supremacists.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/22/gop-cant-escape-trump-without-letting-go-reagan/
I don't think people mean civil war in the traditional sense when they refer to the situation in the US right now. I understood it to be the idea that things could escalate to (e.g.) an assassination of someone in public life which could spark revenge attacks, sporadic sort of vigilante bombings of local infrastructure or public buildings, martial law etc type scenarios in scattered pockets across the country, that sort of thing.
Not sure if that fits the definition of "civil war" or if its something else.
Not sure if that fits the definition of “civil war” or if its something else.
Domestic terrorism?
As the people in that article say, it won’t be like the 19th century civil war, it’ll be a localised guerilla war with militias openly attacking federal infrastructure
Ignoring the next bit of the statement because that's a different matter.
The thing you're missing is that both sides are angry with the same thing.
On the "left" side you have the 2016 Portland Riots, the militant aspects of BLM, ANTFA, ACAB, etc. Rioting at government buildings.
On the "right" you've got Jan the 5th insurrectionists, MAGA, etc.
There's the odd white supremacist nutjob patrolling BLM riots with an AR15, but the reality is they're mostly directing their anger in the same direction for different reasons.