You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
HS2 was always a ridiculous white elephant,
Nah, it's an essential part of a modern country. You can't complain about not having modern infrastructure then also complain when they try to give it to us.
Admittedly, they should maybe have done different bits first e.g. a trans-Pennine route, but that's a different argument. We need HS2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and probably more. Also they should have been operated with a view to building jobs, skills and industries in the UK not contracting out to foreign bidders. But HS2 is in no way a white elephant.
The fuel duty super-indexation assumed by OBR in their calcs is RPI plus 5p which is projected to be a total of 12p/ltr.
It would take a significant fall in fuel prices to mitigate that.
It's also questionable whether £ will retain recent gains against $.
Ah yes, level up Birmingham by encouraging everyone to bugger off to London for twelve hours a day and earn more money there, increasing investment in London at the expense of Birmingham
These things benefit both ends.
They are putting UP fuel duty by 12p/litre in this environment?? As well as home energy cost increases.
Our energy market is completely broken. Having to charge renewables producers a windfall tax whilst taking nothing from the North Sea companies is just utterly bonkers.
HS2 constrained to London - Birmingham will bring limited economic benefits for the capital cost involved.
It's real benefit - and an integral part of the levelling-up agenda - would have come from phases 2a & 2b.
An additional point is the UK has a poor track record (no pun) in delivering large scale/critical national infrastructure projects.
We cannot continue trying to live with infrastructure which, in too many cases, dates to the Victorian era; rail lines and water/sewage systems are prime examples.
dantsw13 - we don't whether or not fuel duty will increase in April; Hunt was silent on the matter but the OBR have assumed 12p.
molgrips - why would you want an infrastructure project which will further, and disproportionely, benefit London whilst delivering limited benefits elsewhere - and no benefit north of birmingham?
So far (it always takes time to work out what the hell is really in a slippery Sunak budget, and let’s face it this is his budget) it looks as if all the biggest new austerity measures kick in after the next election… what’s the implications for that? Just trying to make it the next government’s problem? Or signalling to his small state low tax low spending enthusiast back benchers, while delivering them little?
What a silly idea.
Ok, house price goes down. Does the government pay you tax back?
I’m half reading this whilst in a meeting, for half a moment I actually thought this might have been a real thing.
Exactly my thoughts…
So I have used my money that I have earned and paid income tax on , to buy a house ( my only residence). To buy that house, I have taken a mortgage that I have paid interest on ( probably ended up paying more than 50% more than it’s face value at time of buying)
And now you want to introduce a new tax, where I have to pay a yearly sum based upon whatever someone has decided that house is worth at that time .
Yeah right …. I’m oot 🙄
kelvin - in part, it's based on hope that there will be some sort of economic recovery before the next election which will (partially) mitigate any austerity from '25 onwards; it's also a potential problem for a new gov.
As for understanding the full implications of any budget, it's always best to wait until the professionals complete their analyses; for me, that will be Capital Economics and Pantheon.
I've already had a summary from my accountant - which landed only 3 hrs after Hunt sat down so probably has limited value.
Next one will be from my IFA.
Yeah right …. I’m oot
Yep, it’ll never happen here because people want to protect their capital earnings from the tax man. So the rich get richer, while those without capital must keep paying more and more tax on their earnings from working.
At what level of house value should people start being taxed from then?
250k, 500k, £1m? £2m?
And you could have someone earning £500k a year renting a cracking flat in London paying sod-all.
What’s this rich getting richer bollocks, when it comes to living in your main residence?
Your house may/ may not be going up in value , but it doesn’t put any of that in your pocket does it ?
If you make half a million pounds on your home, those earnings are untaxed. You may merrily tick along thinking you’re not rich, but you are. Ask someone who owns no property, has no decent pension fund, and is facing higher and higher taxes despite owning very little and having next to no disposable income.
Anyway, no politician dare tackle this, because the reaction from older voters is exactly as we’re seeing here. ‘Hands off the increasing capital in my house, tax everything else and everyone else’.
What normal person makes half a million on their home!?
You can tax me as much as you want as long as there’s a guarantee there will be someone to wipe my arse and wash my bollocks when I’m housed in a nice care home when I’m older. I have no faith ANY government would do that though.
Most peoples home is their care-plan.
What normal person makes half a million on their home!?
Those with normal homes not earning them large increases in their capital would pay little or no wealth tax. The wealthy doing well out of their property would be the ones paying more. Wealth tax wouldn’t hit the “normal person”, it would be a tax on the wealthy earning large amounts from their capital.
Anyway, this is never going to happen, because people see the money they earn from owning their property as untouchable when it comes to tax. No politician would dare go to the polls proposing to change this. So let’s stop talking about it and get back to what is actually happening.
You chucked the idea out there! 🤣
What normal person makes half a million on their home!?
its not hard down here. I bought a house for £500k 7 years ago. at the current rate of progress it would have been £1mm before 2025. Now, its likely that prices will drop in the next couple of years, so it will take longer than that, but thats just the market.
To give you an idea of what £500k would buy you today in our village (and might make you half a million in the next 15 years)..
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/128193587#/?channel=RES_BUY
What normal person makes half a million on their home!?
Already made more than that on our house, although obvs all in theory as we can't 'cash in' as we live there. Paid £91k in '98, pre Truss houses in our street were going for £800k. Post Truss those that were for sale have been pulled as the market has ground to a hault.
But that would not qualify as normal to me.
Purchased our house in 98 for 70k its now worth 150k.
I consider it a nice area and a great place to live aswell.
Utterly bonkers the uk housing market, and shows just how dripping in money the uk actually is
Get ready for council tax increases.
If a council provides social care, they will be able to impose an increase of upto 5% without a local referendum.
If they don't provide social care it's 3%.
I think it's safe to say increases will be at, or near, the max.
For some people, this budget will be death by a thousand cuts - freezing allowances so fiscal drag, limited supported for energy costs, fuel tax levy relief possibly being removed in April; add that to rampant inflation and wage increases failing to keep pace.
Unless there is a general fall in prices, the current high prices if they don't rise further will become baked in and cease to influence the inflation rate over the next 12 months.
This will be a continuing but hidden pressure on the cost of living unless and until incomes rise considerably.
To give you an idea of what £500k would buy you today in our village (and might make you half a million in the next 15 years)..
Nice….if you like the urban office look 😉
It looks like a GP surgery.
IMO the UK should do more of this kind of thing, we need the experience!
Well maybe they could start with upgrading the Victorian infrastructure that is what we laughably refer to as the railways in the north as we literally watch it fall apart.
The long promised upgrades to which have all been scrapped to pay for an obscenely expensive commuter line from Birmingham to London (let’s face it… nobody with anything between their ears ever thought it would make it north of Brum)
Investing in rail networks is perfect ‘levelling up’ It allows poorer people to commute into prosperous areas.
I do hope the common peasantry of the midlands will be suitably grateful and doff their caps accordingly to their betters as they arrive in the golden city on the hill
These things benefit both ends
All evidence shows that they really don’t. Have a look what happened in Spain. Its literally a one way street
HS2 was always a ridiculous white elephant, but given the present economic climate it’s complete and utter madness
The HS2 business case was never well explained to the public but it's absolutely essential. Build that in full. Connect it in to Northern Powerhouse Rail. You open up a shitload of land, unlock masses of economic potential across the north of England, have future connectivity options to Scotland and north Wales and you free up the existing rail lines (East Coast and West Coast mainlines) to more regional / stopping services and more freight services.
All of that helps remove car and lorry traffic from the roads, aids in decarbonisation and does a lot less environmental damage than any of the road building projects.
HS2 has suffered massively from this "ooh the ancient woodland" which I absolutely get but it's less than the average year of road building.
We have to stop building roads and invest in rail. HS2 is not a white elephant at all, it's the absolute essential backbone of the next 100 years of rail in the UK.
The fact it's been badly managed from the start is just standard Tory. Honestly, if we'd have got the Chinese in to build it, it'd be up and running by now.
The Leeds/Sheffield end has already been dropped. They’re just biding their time until the Manchester section is binned too
It’s just a ludicrously expensive commuter line from Birmingham to London that will end up costing us all what? 120 billion? 150 billion? More?
The dictionary definition of a white elephant, the insane cost of which is just obscene in the present climate
Honestly, if we’d have got the Chinese in to build it, it’d be up and running by now.
Good point, they built the transcontinental railroad in the United States in no time at all.
The Leeds/Sheffield end has already been dropped. They’re just biding their time until the Manchester section is binned too
Yeah but guess what? It'll still be there in 20, 30, 50 years' time when our eventual socialist utopia decides to press on and get the next bit done.
It might allow workers to get from Birmingham to London, but it will also allow customers to get from London to Birmingham, which will help businesses in Birmingham. When you set up many kinds of business, you want to be accessible to potential customers for face-to-face dealings. That's why lots of businesses set up in London because you can easily get to other businesses with whom you want to deal. Better transport links effectively make places closer together, so you have a larger potential area from which to draw customers. A friend of mine ran a digital agency and lost many potential customers once they learned they were in Cardiff and not London.
Ironically, if HS2 continued further North, the cost per mile may have been less!
A lot of Victorian architecture has remained due to a very conservative attitude towards it.
We would certainly benefit from it being replaced when the time comes e.g. replacing old manual signalling with electronic, changing to continuous welded rail, rebuilding stations instead of restoring etc.
You can get from brum to London in no time hs2 won't speed that up much. Different argument thou.
Thay should have started in Manchester and worked down.
Manchester to Milton Keynes would have been a better idea
but it will also allow customers to get from London to Birmingham, which will help businesses in Birmingham.
Aah bless.
It's about speed AND capacity.
HS2 in it's current configuration of London to Birmingham is pointless; it doesn't link to anything other than Victorian-era lines.
Whatever happened to the Integrated Rail Strategy?
Where is the UK's rail transport vision - it's long-term strategic plan for the next 50 - 100
years?
Rail freight? Other than Stratford (London) and Daventry how few other international rail freight terminals/terminii are there in the UK?
No strategic vision, no creativity.
If it’s only going to Birmingham why is there a load of work going on north of Birmingham near Burton on Trent?
Whatever happened to the Integrated Rail Strategy?
It got levelled down, like everything else promised to the North by the Tories. We’re all shocked and surprised.
Yes kelvin, I know.
My comment was to make a point.
I was agreeing with your point. Or repeating it. Agreeing with you anyway.
As I said when Binners brought HS2 up, the problem isn’t building HS2, the problem is stopping there and not getting on with the rest of the new lines that were planned.
Whatever happened to the Integrated Rail Strategy?
As @kelvin says, it promised a lot then it was delayed again and again and when it was finally published (2 years later than promised) it contained a load of vague promises and no actual substance other than cutting out most of the original ambitions.
The northern leaders reacted with anger and dismay over the news - it was made worse because Boris had stood there on various northern stations banging on about Northern Powerhouse and levelling up and Great British Railways and "world leading" and then the north found out that it'd be getting a 4th hand intercity train and some bits of electrification.
HS2 is one of those things that the less you build, the less it makes sense. Build it in full and the actual value of it becomes clear. Build a quarter of it and it's pointless.
Imagine building a cycle lane that ducks onto various pavements then finishes at a main junction. It's shit, it's pointless, no one will use it.
Now build it properly using safe segregated lanes to navigate across the junction and actually go somewhere useful like from the residential area to the school and suddenly it's all worthwhile.
but it will also allow customers to get from London to Birmingham, which will help businesses in Birmingham
Yeah, the problem is definitely going to be those poor businesses in Brum unable to keep up with the insatiable demand that the high speed, golden age railway stampede from the capital will usher in
Meanwhile, everywhere north of Birmingham…
Meanwhile, everywhere north of Birmingham…
At least those run regularly and stop often, unlike HS2! 🤣
Stopping services could be increased on existing lines once HS2 opens… but no change North of Crewe in the deserted lands.
Spineless ******!
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1593204069669212161?s=46&t=4d4eYqXM3mfgU2409ObffQ
HS2 is a nonsense
Northern Powerhouse rail or whatever it's called is another nonsense
There is no tangible benefit for the North in my y lifetime. HS2 is like Crossrail, we've all paid for it but over 80% of the population will never use it
Fun fact someone I know is driving/working the tunnel machine under long itchington. 3 years and they are packing up back to Hinckley C. No plans past Litchfield apparently.
Shocking they are ahead of schedule
There is no tangible benefit for the North in my y lifetime. HS2 is like Crossrail, we’ve all paid for it but over 80% of the population will never use it
That doesn't mean it shouldn't be built.
CrossRail, as a project, has been in the books since the 1980's in one form or another. Idea, ambition, design work, business case and so on. It was approved in 2007 and then took another 2 years to start construction.
There are plenty of people who were around in the 90's and early 00's who won't have lived to see the opening of it this year but that doesn't mean it shouldn't have been built. It's already up on predicated use and budget, forecast to start turning a profit in 2023.
This is the problem with politics, it's very short-termist which leads to big projects with long lead times being very badly managed because no-one can see further than the next election. Everyone (including the public and the press) want everything immediately.
No the problem is the inequality. We need infrastructure but all of the investment is to serve the SE thus perpetuating the inequality
How does Marjorie in Darlington benefit from Crossrail or HS2? She's lucky if there's a bus once an hour to get her across town to the GP.
It's been shown time and time again that the cash for HS2 could deliver tangible benefits for the entire country in smaller projects that could improve the lives of many people. Anyone who uses a train that goes East-West anywhere in the country knows how crap they are.
Why not give the whole country free high speed broadband ? Why not start with upgrading Liverpool to Hull?
Hunt missed an opportunity to simplify the income tax rules yesterday: when dropping the threshold for the additional rate he could have also increased the higher rate from 40% to 60% and done away with the personal allowance taper. Same effect, easier to understand, but likely even worse headlines.
he could have also increased the higher rate from 40% to 60% and done away with the personal allowance taper. Same effect, easier to understand, but likely even worse headlines.
it wouldn't have had the same effect at all. the only way to have the same effect would be to have a 60% rate but only from 100k-120k (or thereabouts), then back to a 45% rate.
It’s been shown time and time again that the cash for HS2 could deliver tangible benefits for the entire country in smaller projects that could improve the lives of many people. Anyone who uses a train that goes East-West anywhere in the country knows how crap they are.
Oh I don't disagree - you can argue about how badly it's been planned, for sure. But we need this as just one part of our national infrastructure, and it's important. Not a white elephant, nor is Crossrail for that matter in my opinion.
Why not give the whole country free high speed broadband ? Why not start with upgrading Liverpool to Hull?
Can you remember what happened to Labour's Northern support when they proposed things like this? Great ideas, and very sensible IMO but there certainly isn't the political will from the current government, or much support from the electorate for change.
What normal person makes half a million on their home!?
Just checked and 2-bed flats in Reading, a place famous only for ketted up teenagers, being the butt of Ricky Gervais jokes and being 25minutes form London. Are between £250k and £550k.
So the answer is probably "people who bought a flat in Reading 20 years ago".
A fairly average newbuild detached in the suburbs is getting on for three quarters of a million. So yes I absolutely think the owners (including myself) should be paying 20% tax on those profits.
But we need this as just one part of our national infrastructure
What is this 'national infrastructure' you refer to?
A high speed rail network covering the whole country? Like people are always admiring in other countries?
it wouldn’t have had the same effect at all. the only way to have the same effect would be to have a 60% rate but only from 100k-120k (or thereabouts), then back to a 45% rate.
Which is what I meant: increase the higher rate, leave the additional rate alone. Apologies if it wasn't clear.
@molgrips - how does Crossrail benefit pensioners outside the SE? Poodle walkers in Paisley? Day care staff in Derby?
molgrips, some facts...
HS2 phase 1, if built, will be only the second section of true high speed rail infrastructure in the UK.
It will add about 110 miles to the existing 67 miles represented by HS1 so a total of 177 miles.
To make the maths easy, assume standard gauge network in UK is 10,000 miles (it's more
than that) so 177 miles of high speed is 1.77% of the network.
That doesn't represent a high speed network covering the whole of the country.
There is no tangible benefit for the North in my y lifetime. HS2 is like Crossrail, we’ve all paid for it but over 80% of the population will never use it
The actual benefits of Crossrail aren't to the people who use it, getting into London from Reading you wouldn't get Crossrail, you'd get the GWR trains. Which now run much faster as they're not sharing the lines with the stopping trains.
Even just the Heathrow link was badly needed, it was bonkers that the only way you could get in/out of one of the busiest airports in the world except by car was to get a Bus from Reading, or get the train into London, and then back out again. Still a faff, but better than the busses.
Honestly I don't think anyone is saying train links aren't needed I just think they started in the end.
That doesn’t represent a high speed network covering the whole of the country.
PART of a high speed network. It's a network, that's the point. As per the cycleway example earlier - you need all of it, little bits on their own are no good. Same goes for Crossrail. Having a good transport network benefits people all over the country. People like me for example who can live in Cardiff and travel to work all over the country. If the trains are better I am far more likely to take the train than drive, which means more road capacity for everyone else and less pollution, and less diesel bought which makes that cheaper for everyone else. Same goes for freight too. Don't like loads of lorries on your roads? This is how you fix it. Don't like motorways tearing across the landscape? Same.
And for all those benefits you need a complete network that goes everywhere. That means in, out of and across London, unfortunately, because the reality is that loads of businesses and people are already there, AS WELL as all the other places it needs to go.
We need a complete network, and that includes the bit between London and Birmingham and the bit across London. Or around it, for that matter. Same reason we need an M25.
Hs1 & 2 do not constitute the network you referred to.
There is no likelihood of a national high speed network in the next 100 years.
London already has adequate rail connectivity - definitely in contrast to the rest of the country.
The economy is overly dependant on London & SE.
Inadequate and slow speed rail in the rest of the UK is a drag on economic performance; that economic underperformance was going to be (partially) addressed by the Integrated Rail Plan which has now been shelved.
HS2, if completed, will have a marginal impact on road freight.
As I posted earlier any plans to increase rail freight require more access to lines and more freight terminals.
The biggest folly of HS2 on top of the many already discussed is that it terminates at the wrong station in London. If HS2 is supposed to be the beginnings of a UK high speed rail network why is it not linking into HS1? Surely the whole point is that you should get onto HS2 and in theory HS3 4 etc and be linked directly via HS1 to the European high speed rail network, Not have to get off the train in London, get onto the Tube, cross London to St Pancras to find the next trail. You should be able to go either straight in and out of St Pancras or even direct Birmingham / Manchester to Paris / Brussels etc non stop. It would have the further advantage of becoming a real competitor to flying
I don’t necessarily want a high speed train journey.
I quite like relaxing letting the train take the strain 😀 , reading a book, watching something on the iPad , having a drink , something to eat etc.
What I want is to be able to pay a reasonable price for that journey , not the extortionate rate it is now. It’s certainly not going to get any cheaper is it ?
Cheaper rail fares?
Heaven forfend!!!
, Not have to get off the train in London, get onto the Tube, cross London to St Pancras to find the next trail.
I was under the impression that the two stations were going to be combined into "euston st pancreas" with some underground platforms. edit - it appears thats only part of crossrail 2
its not straight through because (aiui) they don't want more stations built to the european standard instead of ours. I doubt many people really want to get on a 6 hour jouney from brum to paris anyway, when flying is so much faster. Shaving a 30 min connection off that won't make a massive difference
But Brum to Paris could be <4hrs if HSx was implemented correctly
The same time as Manchester to Sheffield at present then?
But what's the demand for that?
Great that you could probably fill a few trains of people on a friday night going away for a romantic weekend, but the business case for it would need full trains all day every day.
The same time as Manchester to Sheffield at present then?
In context, that's a 50min train journey to do ~40 miles (by road). And according to the trainline I can jump on one in a hours time for £9.50*.
Reading to Paddington is also 40 miles by road and takes 1h05min*. And according to the trainline it will cost me £23
*Varies from that to £14, upto £24 on a handfull of trains.
**via Crossrail as that's the threads obsession, not the GWR trains.
Hs1 & 2 do not constitute the network you referred to.
No I know I literally said that.
There is no likelihood of a national high speed network in the next 100 years.
Is there some quality analysis or insight that goes with that statement that you forgot to post? 🙂
Assembled masses : What do we want - improved rail infrastructure and a creation of a wide range of well paid, skilled jobs
Govt : Offers up HS2 plans
Assembled masses : No we don't want that. We want the benefit, not that lot.
ho-hum
There is no likelihood of a national high speed network in the next 100 years.
The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the second best time is now.
If the argument was reduced to no railway upgrades until we can guarantee a high speed rail link to every village, then nothing could be built.
Do we need a better train service between Sheffield and Manchester - yes
Did we need a better train service between Wales/Bristol/Cornwall and London - also yes
it'll be interesting to see how high-speed trains of the future compete with autonymous, electric cars. The latter will (at some point) probably have dedicated roads running far higher speeds, and closer together than is acceptable with people-driven cars. With that approach the current motorway network could handle all the capacity at far lower costs than any high speed rail. Each seat will always be less ecological than a train seat, but if they only drive around when people are in them (unlike half-empty trains in the middle of the day), it might not be far off..
With that approach the current motorway network could handle all the capacity at far lower costs than any high speed rail.
Aside from everyone having to find £40k down the back of a sofa for a new car every few years in order to access it.
And it costing £850million to upgrade 30 miles of the M4 to "smart" motorway, which isn't any kind of future proof smart for self driving, it's just a variable speed limit.
I remain unconvinced that there is a benefit from HS2 or Crossrail if you don't use it. If you work in Tesco in Southport. You live locally and don't have cash for a trip to London, how do these benefit you?
We need improved infrastructure but it's the prioritisation of anything in the SE which is the issue. Have you tried getting from Preston to Newcastle? Or Norwich to Birmingham? There's no equality or equity here.
A fairly average newbuild detached in the suburbs is getting on for three quarters of a million. So yes I absolutely think the owners (including myself) should be paying 20% tax on those profits.
At what point would you pay that ?
If you are upgrading to a more expensive home then you will want that money to help pay for it. Who is going to want to move if you have tens of £k’s to pay on top ?
Perhaps if you make a good profit you could donate 20% of your profits to your local schools / hospitals/ emergency services or any other worthy causes. Cut out the government middle man and make sure 100% of it gets to where it needs to be 😉
Meanwhile, everywhere north of Birmingham
Think yourself lucky. Here's Scotrail's new fleet of high speed trains.
If you work in Tesco in Southport. You live locally and don’t have cash for a trip to London, how do these benefit you?
If you work in London, what's the benefit of a Tescos in Southport? Or perhapse a better analogy, if you live in London, what's the point of the 375 bus to Tescos in Southport, scrap the bus and give that subsidy and build me a better cycle route for my commute over the M4.
It's a ridiculous argument.
You can't make one single investment in a transport scheme and expect it to benefit everyone. The best you could ever achieve is to keep plugging away at it developing and implementing projects.
I remain unconvinced that there is a benefit from HS2 or Crossrail if you don’t use it. If you work in Tesco in Southport. You live locally and don’t have cash for a trip to London, how do these benefit you?
It grows the economy generally*. The people who shop in Tesco in Southport keep you in a job. Some of them work for a digital agency doing work for a client in London. These people are buying the higher value stuff and some luxuries because they're doing well for themselves. They won their contract over other London firms because they were competitively priced, and the client were willing to deal with them; because hey, it's an easy pleasant 2.5hr train journey on which they could do some pre-meeting chat and a bit of work whilst the train took the strain. If it'd been a 4.5hr drive (M25/M5/M6/M62 ugh) or a long slog on crappy trains they probably wouldn't have come.
Hypothetically of course. We're not there yet.
* and yes, the wealth created by the economy needs to be properly distributed.
We need improved infrastructure but it’s the prioritisation of anything in the SE which is the issue.
Yeah this is a tricky one. You need to do two things - you definitely need to do things that grow the businesses that are already there - in London - because they are paying most of the taxes. But you ALSO need to invest in places that don't have as many businesses. This is what hasn't been done.
At what point would you pay that ?
If you are upgrading to a more expensive home then you will want that money to help pay for it. Who is going to want to move if you have tens of £k’s to pay on top ?
Exactly, unless you are not going to buy another house you haven't made a profit as the next house you buy will have risen in price just as much as yours. The effect of such an ill thought out tax would be nobody could sell their house other than those not buying another one (very few people)