[Closed] Ukraine Crimea Crisis

Time for a re strike 🙁

[url= http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3726/11733910215_a998885fb2_b.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3726/11733910215_a998885fb2_b.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
[url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/58162507@N07/11733910215/ ]Crimea Medal[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/58162507@N07/ ]SGMTB[/url], on Flickr

JohnClimber - Member

There was a vote by people of the Crimea where over 80% of the population voted and they voted 93% to join Russia.

Where's the problem?

Such highlights as armed gangs outside polling stations, police throwing all the observers out of vote counting locations, video footage of people casting multiple votes, foreign nationals being allowed to vote, the voter turnout in Sevastopol being 120%... Oh and the minor matter of the limited choice on the ballot.

Course, none of that means that the result is crooked but we'll never know what the actual vote was.

Hmmmmm.

So large powerful country annexes part of a smaller country on the pretext that the majority of the population in that area are ethnically and temperamentally of the larger country? Larger country cites a list of grievances on behalf of the 'oppressed minority'.

I'm pretty sure that this has happened somewhere before in Europe, but I can't quite put my finger..........

Oh yes, for Crimea read 'Sudetenland'.

Who's going to play Chamberlain this time?

Who's going to play Chamberlain this time?

All this talk among European and US politicians about 'we don't want to get involved in a war over Ukraine' how about not wanting to but being pushed to it anyway. No one wanted a war with Nazi Germany at first, but it happened anyway.

Is the Crimea crisis the worlds biggest ever collective submission to Godwins law?

I have particularly enjoyed todays intervention by Gorbachev, rightly pointing out that Crimea was given away by soviet-era leaders without ever asking the public what they wanted.

You enjoyed [i]that[/i]? Did you not already know that? Wow.

I knew it, however I thoroughly enjoyed seeing Gorby back on the scene

Speaking of Gorbachev, I'd like to see a Spitting Image version of this situation!!
Wonder what they'd make of Putin?

Due to the hypocrisy of the west there is no credible alternative to what russia is doing.
Why arent the EU and USA and UK hounding Israel for its land grabs or china for tibet etc,

just pure jokers in the west.

Russia is just not going to be bothered by anything the west has to say or do, and we wont do anything.

Thinking about this last night, watching C4 News...

Western military is equipped, er, well practised and their diary is a little clearer than it has been.

Russian military is broke, Cold War kit that they haven't upgraded. Our political leaders love a quick "surgical strike", so why the reluctance.

Best thing for the interim government might be too let Crimea go. With elections coming up in the spring, they've just lost several million of their political opponents.

And they would look better in the international PR battle. The victim of its big bullying neighbour and all that.

Not much consolation if you are a Crimean tartar though.

Those Tartar's are always complaining. That nice man Mr Stalin gave them their own land a bit further east, lots of forests, communal living and plenty of winter sports. They were unhappy with that.

And they would look better in the international PR battle. The victim of its big bullying neighbour and all that.

Which bullying neighbour is that.....the EU who supported and encouraged the violent overthrow of an elected president because he wouldn't sign a trade deal with them (he was elected on a ticket of closer links with Russia) and who weren't prepared to wait another year until his term expired in case the next election didn't go their way, that bullying neighbour ?

Well yes, they have certainly played an international PR blinder.....just look at the some of the comments on this thread for proof of that.

Ernie +1 ^^^

RKK01 Western military is equipped, er, well practised and their diary is a little clearer than it has been.

Russian military is broke, Cold War kit that they haven't upgraded. Our political leaders love a quick "surgical strike", so why the reluctance.

If West tiptoes around NKorea, who might have nuclear weapons ... give it a go with drunken russians. Start WW3, in the name of democracy and high morals.

Even then, when all this BS started, why ukranians were visited by different EU countries politicians to prop up higher morale to overthrow government?

Granted WUkranians will kick Ivan out, but how will they deal with their own problems later? They think West will come and fix all their issues for free. Right, if thats true I am in!

sending Baroness ashton into Kiev may have been provactive
but the russians flooding Crimea with troops before any referndum had been held isnt?
and Putin cutting off the gas supplies 2 winters ago wasnt intimidation/blackmail on a massive scale?

dont think either side is blameless here

[I]Well yes, they have certainly played an international PR blinder.....just look at the some of the comments on this thread for proof of that [/I]

Wow! I didn't know the opinions expressed on this forum carried such weight in international diplomatic circles.

Does Barak Obama post on here regularly?

hes more of a lurker

Perhaps Russia "flooded" Crimea with troops before a referendum because if they hadn't no referendum would have been allowed ?

I'm fairly sure that the US and the EU were opposed to any referendum - they see the Russian Black Fleet naval base as an important Russian asset which they would dearly like to be in the hands of the EU.

And the Russian/Ukraine dispute over gas prices, which was more than two winters ago btw, and which was over Ukraine paying well below the global price for gas, was "intimidation/blackmail on a massive scale" was it ?

So let's get this right. If "the West" refuses to sell and trade with Russia, and refuses the freedom of travel to their politicians, it's called "sanctions". But if Russia should dare to do anything even vaguely simular it's called "intimidation and blackmail on a massive scale".

A nice example of some twisted moral logic there.

But then of course there is nothing vaguely moral about the EU saying that they are perfectly happy and content to work with Yanukovych, as long as he signs a trade deal with them, but that if he doesn't they will fully support his overthrow.

I call that intimidation and blackmail on a massive scale.

.

BTW somewhatslightlydazed, public opinion is hugely important to EU/US politicians. And when you get "lefties" like kimbers agreeing with politicians such as William Hague it shows jut how successful they have been with regards to Ukraine.

so freezing the bank accounts of 20 politicians compares to shutting off gas supplies of the 45million Ukrainians and the rest of eastern europe?

I wonder what russia couldve hoped to gain from such a harsh move during the [url= http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2009%E2%80%932010_in_Europe ]brutally cold winter of 2009[/url]

...oh yes as part of the deal to switch it back on, [url= http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian%E2%80%93Russian_Naval_Base_for_Natural_Gas_treaty ]they got Ukraine to extend their lease on the Russian Naval base in Crimea by an extra 25 years[/url]

I don't think its often that you'll see me and Ernie agree on something, but in this case I think we're right on the same platform - the behaviour of the 'West' regards many of the former Russian republics has been deplorable and utterly hypocritical. Putin's speech yesterday commented that

[i]'You cannot call the same thing black today and white tomorrow'[/i]

and that

[i]Our Western partners headed by the United States prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun... They have come to believe in their exceptionalism and their sense of being the chosen ones. That they can decide the destinies of the world, that it is only them who can be right.[/i]

Yanukovych was legally elected in a fair election, an internationally brokered agreement was made about his future and about bringing forward elections that was cast aside in a violent putsch that the western powers have not only turned a blind eye to but supported, the Ukranian constitution was abandoned by the same self imposed government that is now calling the Crimean referendum unconstitutional.

I don't care if people want to say that the Russians 'invaded', even when they didn't (they were already there, legally) - they have not gone in dropping bombs on people, they have not gone in there kidnapping people through 'extraordinary rendition', keeping people in jail for years without charge. Its laughable for the US to accuse Russia of propping up a 'puppet' administration in Crimea to do their will, given the corruption we and the rest of the 'west' have turned a blind eye to all over the region, let alone the monsters we created in Iraq and Afghanistan.

By comparison with anything the US have done over recent decades, Russia have been incredibly moderate and restrained - I can stand sure that if it had been US strategic interests that were threatened in the same way, we would have seen outright bloody carnage on the streets!

Russia played the game by 'our' rules, up until the agreement was violently cast aside in 'our' favour, and at this point they cried foul and did it their way - I'm not saying what Russia has done is necessarily good, I'm not saying its necessarily right, but realpolitik is involved, and the hypocrisy being displayed here by the EU and even more so by the US is staggering.

They didn't shut off gas supplies to the rest of eastern Europe, Ukraine did that. They stopped gas supplies to Ukraine, something which they were legally and morally justified in doing. The Ukraine government at the time expected, indeed demanded, that Russia only charge them 'mates rates' for their gas whilst at the same time they took an increasingly belligerent attitude towards Moscow. As a consequence Russia thought it would be more appropriate if they paid a price which reflected the global market price. Ukraine doesn't have a right to buy Russian gas you know.

And btw Russia is being threaten with a lot more than the freezing of bank accounts of 20 politicians. But anyway, are you saying that it's only sanctions, and sanctions are fine, if they are ineffectual, but if they are effective then it's no longer called sanctions and it becomes "intimidation and blackmail on a massive scale" ? Is that what your easily manipulated logic says ?

I cant deny the hypocracy of the west on this (an indeed I didnt)

dont think either side is blameless here

Hypocrisy is a political staple after all, there was a bonkers article by borris in the telegraph last week where he slagged off russia, whilst hapily ignoring the oligarch money helping prop up his city.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10686699/Is-Vladimir-Putin-the-new-Stalin-Not-now-the-USSR-has-fallen-apart.html

ernie your usual trick of pretending Ive said something I havent is somewhat predictable
and you can make out that russia was just acting as an aggrieved capitalist nation all you like but they were willing to loose billions ? of dollars and damage their reputation as an energy supplier all over the lease of the naval base on the little sticky out bit in the black sea. Shows that Putin's Russia is mad keen on the crimea

I think we all know what your real issue here with the pro-western ukranians is ernie...;-)

ernie your usual trick of pretending Ive said something I havent is somewhat predictable

We're not having a verbal conversation here mate, it's all written down in black and white.

you can make out that russia was just acting as an aggrieved capitalist nation all you like

I'm going to have go back and read what I wrote.

And btw my "real issue here" is that I don't much care for double standards and breathtaking hypocrisy.

Georgia events proved otherwise.

Logistically more difficult re overflights.

Cynically - strategically less important.

Doesn't need more than a tickle, just to show that we're paying attention / give a damn. A single B2 strike to take out the Black Sea fleet???

Well played Mr Putin: Obama bans more Russians from international travel, in your face Barack- I'm going to ban a load of your American mates from travelling here to blackmail me.
Whatever America can do, he will do the same 😆

I think Obama's restriction on selected Russians (not the one in charge of course) from international travel would be hilarious if it wasn't so depressing.

Hilarious because of the absurdity that anyone could think that Russia will pull out of Crimea and abandon it because the US has placed travel restrictions on individuals such as Putin's judo partner.

And depressing because the puerile and pointless posturing of the president of the United States has all the resemblance of childish playground politics.

Obama knows of course full well that it will not make one iota of difference to the situation in Crimea, but he feels he needs to play to the gallery so futile posturing is required. How depressing is that ? 😐

From The Irish Times :

[url= http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/if-we-have-to-pick-a-side-over-crimea-let-it-be-russia-1.1731105 ]If we have to pick a side over Crimea, let it be Russia[/url]

[b][i]"When it comes to double-talk, however, there is no contest. Putin is never going to be a match for Obama at talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time"[/i][/b]

I guess its been brewing for a while. The US got caught out spying on an epic scale and now Russia just do what they want.

Did wonder if we would have another Berlin wall type situation.

It was being suggested that the judo partner et al are in fact the Putin inner circle with more power than some lowly minister

Every time I've travelled in first class there were always Russians with uk passports. Can't see the restrictions having much affect.

....with more power than some lowly minister

Well they must be making plans to abandon Crimea as we speak in that case.

Russian 'militia' (as they are being called) are storming a major airbase in Crimea. Lots of explosions and gunfire being reported!
Is this the escalation that the 'West' have warned Russia about?

Is this the escalation that the 'West' have warned Russia about?

Doesn't seem to be, it turns out that it was just a lot of shouting and guns being fired into the air. Still, they are now talking about 'Russian troops massing on the border' so we'll see what happens next.

Although it's now a month and still no bloodbath, Western leaders must be really quite disappointed.

Of course if it was the US that was muscling in before even committing ground troops they would have bombed the crap out of Crimea, something to do with "shock and awe" I believe. Unfortunately this would have resulted in the death of a lot of innocent civilians but, hey, "collateral damage" happens, there's no point being soft.

Then the US would have operated drones which operators from their air-condition offices in Nevada would have guided to "selected targets". This dramatically reduces the risks to the invading force, although it would also have dramatically increased the risks to Crimean wedding parties.

The US would also have used the maximum firepower at their disposal. This probably would have led to "friendly fire" incidents whereby pro-Russian militia would have been accidentally targeted and killed, but again these things happen in conflict situations.

No these Russian are proving to be real amateurs, this must be the worse invasion ever. They haven't even rounded up people, imprisoned them, and tortured them. No wonder no one seems to be fighting back with IEDs, car bombs, and other terrorist devices. It's almost as if they don't mind them being there.

Let's hope things hot up soon otherwise people will start to forget just how evil the Russians are.

According to Natos chief Mr Breedlove (quiet at the back!!) there is a very sizeable Russian army presence on the country's Western edge. And a large amount of hardware available to back them up. He seems to think Russia will invade Ukraine and be in a position to take it all by force in 3-5 days.
So the question is will Putin do it or won't he?
Surely not....

They could be ready to move in as little as 45 minutes...

Man, it looks bad for ukraine. Ordinary people confused and get divided by New politics. Don't see any more escalation as Russia isn't pushing for more of Ukraine. Many eastern Ukrainians (Russian speaking) became immidiately ethnic minority instead of ukranians they were before.

[url= http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26919928 ]Is this the start of another land grab?[/url]

Why is it a "land grab"........because the people in the areas concerned feel closer to Russia than the West ?

Is it a "land grab" every time the EU enlarges ?

Or every time the EU supports, encourages, and recognises, the overthrow of an elected president ?

Land grab sounds like very selective use of emotive language.

I imagine the government in Kiev are convinced Putin has set this up (probably shitting themselves). And Putin is such a clever operator they may be right.

Hopefully its a bit of spontaneous shouting and will all blow over.

It was hopelessly naive to think that the Crocodile wrestler, given the ease with which he annexed Crimea, was just going to stop there.

He had what was effectively a puppet government in Kiev. Now he hasn't. I expect he's got a load of plans up his sleeve, in the long term, with regards to making life very very difficult for the new administration. But initially it looks like the priority is re-drawing borders

So 'Pro-Moscow Activists' (definitely not Russian troops!) have occupied key government buildings. Thats got an awfully familier ring to it.

I suspect there will be a few timid bleating's from Western governments (who have zero legitimacy to criticise), and within a week or too, another part of Ukraine will have been successfully annexed.

Then its on to the next….

Ukrainian special forces have just taken back Khakiv. Presumably Donetsk and Luhansk will follow. Hopefully a strong show of force from the Ukrainian government will be enough of a deterrent, however Russia is still saying stuff like

it reserves the right to defend ethnic Russians in the country.

Indeed it is. But not as chilling as NATO and the EU supporting and encouraging a coup d'etat against an elected president because he didn't comply with their wishes, and because they weren't prepared to wait a year for the next presidential elections.

Also chilling is the fact that the EU was prepared to sign an agreement with coup leaders who have no democratic mandate.

[url= http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/us-ukraine-crisis-eu-agreement-idUSBREA2K0JY20140321 ]European Union signs landmark association agreement with Ukraine[/url]

A "landmark agreement" with people who have no mandate ? No referendum ? No election ?

Quote : [i]Van Rompuy, the European Council president, said the agreement would bring Ukraine and its 46 million people closer to the heart of Europe and a "European way of life".[/i]

So closer to the heart of Europe and a "European way of life" whether they like it or not. And the "European way of life" according to the EU is for unelected bureaucrats to issue directives which allegedly independent sovereign governments must comply with irrespective of the wishes of their electorate.

The EU has always been a deeply undemocratic institution with little regards for the democratic wishes of the citizens of member states, but it is both chilling and shocking to see how far they are prepared to go and how little concern they have for the democratic rights of the population specially in Eastern Ukraine. This represents a new low.

Well just as I thought this one was dying down we have more armed seizures of official buildings by 'pro Russia militia' in the East and now Ukraines armed forces are ordered to fight back. Surely this will lead to a Ukraine Russia war.
So Mr Obama what now?

Unless new politiks order to slaughter eastern ukranians can't see much of war. But civil war west vs east, very possible.

What now? More western bluster, a partitioned Ukraine, and further corrosive attenpts by the EU to undermie the new pro-russian eastern state.

Pro Russian vs Pro West, doesn't sound any different. All the same to me, as long as politiks find solution to stabilise country and de-escalate impeding civil war. If that shait hits fan, I'm worried if I could pay my bills.

ohnohesback - Member
further corrosive attenpts by the EU to undermie the new pro-russian eastern state.

problem is that eastern ukraine doesnt have the same pro russian majority that crimea had

from wikipedia
[img] [/img]

Hence the continuing effort by the EU to keep on at it.

Well top of the news today is Ukraines army fighting back, casualties reported. Russia has no intention of invading but if fighting continues who knows where this could end up.

problem is that eastern ukraine doesnt have the same pro russian majority that crimea had

There's this assumption that the whole political scene in Ukraine only ever manifests itself as an ethnic Russians v ethnic Ukrainian struggle.

If this was truly the situation then Viktor Yanukovych, who is a Russian speaker and only speaks Ukraine badly, would never have won the 2010 Ukraine presidential election. And yet he did, and he did so on a pro-Russian ticket backed by a pro-Russian party.

But it's true to say that the situation in Eastern Ukraine isn't the same as Crimea, which presumably is why the protesters in Eastern Ukraine aren't asking for integration into Russia but for a loose federal arrangement with devolved power, a demand which Russia fully backs but the US and the EU do not.

And considering the situation and the intense polarisation which clearly exists in Ukraine it would appear to be a reasonable solution, other than partition.

as weve seen with scotland that devolved power seems to lead down one road....

tough shout for the ukrainians, yuschenko wasnt up to much, tymoshenko ended up being corrupt, yanukovich even more corrupt, now- who knows, dont seem to be doing well so far

with crimea removed from the country the demographics in ukraine have shifted, unlikely that a pro russian government will ever get a majority now

unlikely that a pro russian government will ever get a majority now

Which probably goes a long in explaining why Eastern Ukrainians want a federal arrangement which will allow them, among other things, to enter into trade deals with Russia.

EDIT : I've just checked and Yanukovych won by just shy of a million more votes than Tymoshenko. And the total population of Crimea is 2 million, I don't how many are on the electoral register and how many actually vote, but it doesn't suggest that it would be completely impossible for a pro-Russian president to win a election on those figures, specially if he or she was actually an honest politician rather than a corrupt one, which is generally the choice that is offered.

[url= http://news.sky.com/story/1249159/russia-wants-world-war-three-says-ukraine ]Russia wants WW3 so says Ukraine[/url]

Well they would say that wouldn't they? There's alot of fighting talk flying around at the moment, quite frankly it's disturbing. Does anyone want peace in this situation?

[img] [/img]

Does anyone want peace in this situation?

I think it's clear that neither side wants a violent confrontation.

😆 the cartoon says it all.

[url= http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 ]Malaysian Airliner Shot Down[/url] over Ukraine 😯

[img] [/img]

Whodunit?

saw that, holy crap

if confirmed as shot down, this is dire dire news.

Ok, so far the BBC are saying 'it crashed', but Sky and CNN are saying it was 'shot down'.

[url= http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/uk-ukraine-crash-airplane-idUKKBN0FM1U420140717 ]Reuters also say shot down[/url]

Reuters: [url= http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0FM0LF20140717 ]Russia shoots down Ukranian warplane[/url] this morning.

"In the latest escalation of the conflict on the Ukrainian-Russian frontier, Kiev said a Russian jet had shot down one of its warplanes, its strongest accusation yet of direct Russian military involvement in the war. A Ukrainian military spokesman said the pilot of the SU-25 fighter ejected to safety."

Drac - Moderator
Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, was quoted by the Associated Press as saying the plane had been hit by a missile at an altitude of 10,000m (33,000ft). The claim could not be verified independently.

I'll just steal Drac's quote from the other thread

Terrible 🙁

[img] [/img]