UK recession Q4 2023! Is there a sector doing well?

Black Economy, the ultra rich and friends of the Tories. A venn diagram of these three groups shall substantially overlap.

From speaking to a few friends in the manufacturer of civil engineering/construction products, which is also my line of work, business is a bit stagnant at the moment. Our merchant network has also described the same weak business. Interest rates are too high. As soon as they begin to come down, businesses will start borrowing money to invest in projects again, releasing the brakes on the economy. Whilst my sales area (the north) is relatively buoyant, our south eastern colleagues have been under budget for a number on consecutive months.

With more people alive on the planet today than have previously lived in total*, I always thought it would be good to get into the undertaker business.

*suppusedly

With more people alive on the planet today than have previously lived in total*, I always thought it would be good to get into the undertaker business.

Completely agree, I used to work for a company that had a significant amount of funeral homes, that part of the business had a year on year growth & could predict quite accurately future years based on population and various other factors. Surprisingly heavily under invested though, compared to other parts of the business.

Also crematoriums, desperately needed in the UK but incredibly difficult to get planning specifically due to nimbys. We applied for three different sites in the midlands, all were rejected, prob spent several million in fees trying to get them through planning. The company eventually said enough is enough, and stopped looking for new sites or development on the project.

PWC got it wrong?!? https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/uk-economic-outlook-april-2023.html

is there a sector that is doing well … in the uk? 🤷🏻‍♂️

With more people alive on the planet today than have previously lived in total*,

*suppusedly

Not even close. Current population is about 7% of the total that have ever lived.

On Earth, anyway.

Telecoms is doing well 🙂

The whole GDP is crying out for investment in green energy.  The total failure here of our system to back track from this is preposterous.

I'm in renewables and highway electrical - my busiest year to date in 14 years (all PV/Solar this year).

Turnover usually somewhere between £90-150k on the highways, circa £300k if a solar project drops in. This financial year (July-July) with work completed, work in progress and orders secured - £1.2million. 2024/25 looking to be around £2million with potential work on the horizon (headline target price submitted to client and they have shared their portfolio with me).

Funeral parlours and insolvency practitioners may be doing well?

My small business is also mothballed, will probably shut it down next year, largely thanks to brexit. Only paid a few tens of thousands of pounds in taxes and brought in 6 figures in foreign currency through selling our scientific skills to our European friends, so it's probably not the sort of thing that right-thinking patriots should have been doing anyway. We've got blue passports now which more than makes up for it.

Let's hope Labour can "make brexit work". Hollow laugh. We've seen in recent days how they are bursting at the seams with the most talented and intelligent people around.

I was told that coffee shops and cobblers do well in a recession.

I guess people see buying a coffee as the only 'treat' they can afford? And of course, folks get shoes repaired instead of binning them, which makes me think charity shops should be seeing a rise in trade?

However, I've seen most of our independent cobblers close in the last 10 years, it kind of feels like they've turned in to coffee shops if you count them all up whilst walking through town.

I'm in the waste industry, and we've seen a steady decline in trade since last summer, I've had 2 companies we supply to go into liquidation in that time too.

I was told to get in to property and gold, which would be great if I was either:

Black Economy, the ultra rich and friends of the Tories

Buckle up, it's going to get worse 🙁

I’m in renewables and highway electrical – my busiest year to date in 14 years (all PV/Solar this year).

Any positions available for people localish to you who don't know one end of a shovel/screwdriver from the other?

Asking for a friend

The whole GDP is crying out for investment in green energy. The total failure here of our system to back track from this is preposterous.

Yep this times a million. I work in the publishing business producing business and investment supplements for broadsheet newspapers and we interview hundreds of leading CEOs and politicians from countries around the world each year. Pretty much every single country except the UK sees the potential monetary benefits of green investment. We are going to be left behind in a big way.

I was told that coffee shops and cobblers do well in a recession.

Coffee is a great trade - our highest margin in the shop (now we've paid off the equipment, which took three years in sales) is coffee. 84% gross margin on coffee @ £3 a cup. Costa and the like are raking it in.

Print trade is all over the place. One-man-band operations like me and the big boys who've invested millions are keeping their heads above water. Mid-size ones seem to be dropping like flys - not big enough or automated enough to keep up with the big operations, but too big to be flexible.

At least material prices seem to have stabilised a bit.

which makes me think charity shops should be seeing a rise in trade?

A lot of charity shops are refusing donations presumably because things are selling as quickly as they are being donated

If I ride a loop around my town the investment in green energy and the decarbonization of the old economy is the most obvious thing in the landscape. Windfarms anywhere they fit, solar fields too. Coal mines decommissioned and put to housing and leisure. Coal power either bulldozed, held as emergency reserve or (Drax) switched to (debatable) renewable wood pellets. Old mines prepped for carbon capture depositing underground (experimental). Last month the next Hornsea wind farm got the go-ahead too. Blades and towers being manufactured at huge factories on the Humber. Just sayin'.

I was told that coffee shops and cobblers do well in a recession.

Took a boot in to the local cobblers to have a heel re-done;  21 days or so to get it back. Said he had masses of work to do in front of my job.
Around here, sw London, a proper cobbler os now fairly rare, as opposed to timpsons type outfits.

Construction. Lots of projects being stopped and put on hold due to cancelled funding and increased costs. Redundancies in places. We are usually the canary in the mine

my black gold shares are doing alright BP, Shell and Coca Cola (7% profit increase shares £22 upto £24.46 since tuesday close), and rolls royce shares have tripled in under a year

my mining sector and UK banks are miserable but its dividend season coming up, so expecting some good dividends

it seems the stock market is ignoring the gloom for the time being

Coca Cola (7% profit increase shares £22 upto £24.46 since tuesday close)

Surprised at that, coca cola announced on Monday(?) they were dumping a large swathes of unprofitable products/brands (Tab, Zico coconut water, Diet Coke Fiesty Cherry and Odwalla juices). Obviously a good market reaction to it - and it helps that their profits are up.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/coca-cola-flavours-discontinues-drinks-b2495878.html

I'm in Financial Services, pretty much all businesses are shedding staff right across the country; many reasons including where I work that's shutting down.

For us, basically unable to compete as not big enough to absorb the cost of regulation vs income.

@monkeyboyjc depends which coca cola the ftse 100 listing is the european company, what was hellenic bottling co, HBC). The UK arm comes under USA listed cocacola.

my rational for investment, fat kids love coke.

I’m in Financial Services, pretty much all businesses are shedding staff right across the country; many reasons including where I work that’s shutting down.

@intheborders

My wife works in insurance and insurance companies can't get enough good staff - may be worth pointing any who are losing their jobs in that direction?

We are usually the canary in the mine

As are we (self-employed designer), as we are dependent on companies marketing budgets, which tend to be the first thing to get pulled.

Last year was as grim as 2009, immediately after the crash. It actually managed to be worse than 2020 and the lockdowns. Quite some achievement.

I've never known so many projects and campaigns that were all lined up and then pulled at the last minute. Regular customers have cut their budgets back to nothing. Retail is *ed, the hospitality sector is totally *ed. Construction is ****ed. There is only one sector spending money. Pharmaceuticals.

I actually think its going to get much worse as these idealogical idiots are so straight-jacketed by their financial orthodoxy, the only way out they see is tax cuts for the better off

That went really well last time around. I expect it'll go just as badly when they try it again in March

my rational for investment, fat kids love coke.

Cirtainly our best seller 😉 in category.

I see the Labour party have already put Rishi's latest 3 word election slogan out there for him in time for voters going to the polls in 2 by-elections today

I work part time in a hardware shop/off-licence - we are doing OK as we’re in a good location serving remote communities and with tourist footfall. However, every delivery we have to check prices as they’re constantly going up. Noticeable too that families don’t have much spare cash - big spenders are generally older couples.

Didn't get our bonus this year in pharma/biotech. Happy to have a job though.

I'm in higher education. Over the last 5 years staff salaries have lagged inflation by about 12%, and 2 weeks ago they announced an indefinite recruitment freeze, with vacated posts not being filled until further notice.

MrsDoris on the other hand, works in a tech company that provides outsourcing to the airline industry. While airlines atttempt to cut costs, her company is doing very nicely indeed.

our industry is doing very well, (specialist Occupational health and safety consultancy on one side and niche heavy engineering on the other)  and the only limiting factor we have at the moment is recruitment, as we are niche so its a limited pool and can be challenging to get new folks into.

Must be doing something well though as our owners just gave everyone an 11% cost of living increase on top an already nice package.

anyone fancy a career change and have a safety, science or engineering background fancy a job, give me shout.

As are we (self-employed designer), as we are dependent on companies marketing budgets, which tend to be the first thing to get pulled.

100% - Similar film production/corporate films. Maybe I need to get a proper job.

Had a real 3 months of arse twitching. But we're used to it. Started in a recession in 92 but watching your company day to day funds going down to your last 2K is pretty scary. (Things have turned a corner though now - hopefully. Music videos and University funds to the rescue.)

But we also had an enquiry yesterday and it clearly demonstrates that there is always money for the military.  Always.

That the sector that will do very well - because parts manufacturers are often small unit local innovators working for big boys.

Sad though.

@rone - Where are you based? I know a couple of people who work in TV and film production and recently saw some staggering statistics.

All those new production studios that were built in and around Media City in Salford are all sat empty. There is nothing taking place there at all. As most staff (as with my industry) are freelance, apparently 80% of TV production freelance staff in the north west are presently out of work. I know a very experienced producer who hasn't worked in over a year.

It all looks very shiny and lovely with all those new glass and chrome buildings, but behind all that facade the industry is dying on its arse

If you look at the breakdown, Construction is the big factor, services grew. However Construction PMI heading back above 50 in the UK so recovery in that sector should be forthcoming.

It all looks very shiny and lovely with all those new glass and chrome buildings, but behind all that facade the industry is dying on its arse

Huge decline in advertising revenue is having a big impact according to several podcasts I listen too. Channel 4 specifically having a hard time.

is there a sector that is doing well?

Vape shops by high schools?

This is an interesting discussion:

Software services here. We sell to medium to large enterprises. Sales cycle is 18mths or longer - it's usually a big deal us coming in as the products are transformational. I've done no work in the UK in the last 12 months. Every single one of our consultants is occupied 100% on projects in mainland Europe where there's a backlog of work. In the UK, nowt.

apparently 80% of TV production freelance staff in the north west are presently out of work

Anecdotally... this is also true in London (just from people I know currently not working in the industry).

Water Utilities are spending money. Happy to assist in whatever way I can.

Transport is definitely quiet though. Lots of trucks parked up around here. Several transport companies in the balance.

Water Utilities are spending [b]YOUR[/b] money.

FTFY! 😡

Vape shops

Soon to be having problems if the industry changes that are talked about are made. Some convenience stores make up to 60% of trade through vaping products and have gained a reliance (addiction 😉) to the stuff. Thankfully we don't sell any vaping and have also dropped tobacco in the last three months as the margin is too small for the capital.

British Gas appear to be doing nicely……..

Cheese manufacture and export. A very quiet January, quietest since 2009. It's started to pickup a bit but nothing like it normally is in February.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/30/record-revenues-at-uk-gambling-firms-amid-rise-of-online-slot-machines

To be fair, Denise Coates is the country's highest tax payer for the third year in a row.

Water Utilities are spending BORROWED money.

FTFTFY - look at how Thames Water has paid its dividend through borrowing and financial engineering. Canadian pensioners might be poorer in the future (1/3 is owned by a Canadian pension fund)

Bike components sales are flat for us which considering whats happened of the past 18 months is as good as growth. Within that D2C is up but B2B to stockists is way down.

Industrial 3d printing for others has more than doubled in the past year, mainly non bike industry but that has grown too as companies don't want to tie up cash with years worth of far east produced stock that could be out of date when the next fad comes along.

However, costs are way up and we compete against companies who bought their machinery with cheap covid money  so  nothing is left at the end of the month. One day Rodney...

Tourism numbers to Pembs were good last year but spending on extras like adventurous activities was way down.

People had paid for their accommodation and still came away but had less spending money. The summer weather was an extra kick in the teeth for the outdoor sector last year.

Grifting. The grifting sector is doing well.

Timely thread....

Sister told me today he fella is out of a job at the end of this month.

He's in sales. Selling waste services or whatever the crap that means. His previous one was selling waste management to building sites. He got out of that a year or so back as things were slowing down.

Any jobs going east of London (Essex/Suffolk way)?

They say that this recession hasn’t been accompanied by a rise in unemployment.

But what there is is a change in the nature of employment. Skilled, decently paid jobs are being lost and are desperately hard to come by, while there’s a glut of minimum wage/gig economy bullshit jobs that don’t pay enough to live on

Self employed here, fingers in a few pies, try and stay flexible*   Bulk of my work is as an electrician specialising in temporary power, mostly big sporting events, some broadcast and music events.  My year is looking similar to last year, plenty of work booked in already, BUT, I can see the way the wind is blowing and am making a push to get more work abroad.  Purely anecdotal on my part, but feels like there is a lot more opportunities and investment elsewhere

* really I just get bored easily!   I also work as a lighting technician on big artistic installations. Last couple of years I’ve worked all over Europe, possibly as much to do with culture as budget, but again there does feel like more opportunities abroad

Structures examination, primarily railway based but also some highways.

There's pretty much a UK wide shortage of examiners commenting on condition. Apparently we're recession proof ..

This is an interesting discussion:

I watched it yesterday and then ordered his book, I  listened to a good podcast with Gary as a guest a few months ago but I can’t remember what it was?, I’ll have a hunt and if I find it I’ll post it up.

But what there is is a change in the nature of employment. Skilled, decently paid jobs are being lost and are desperately hard to come by, while there’s a glut of minimum wage/gig economy bullshit jobs that don’t pay enough to live on

Absolutely. So many working class jobs have been converted into minimum wage work ruled over by contracting organisations and agencies. The precarity of modern employment (is no accident) is dismal to say the least. Working somewhere for say 30-40 years like previous generations seems like a fairy tale from the land of milk and honey!

Pharma CRO spending is way down on previous years, especially LM.

I'm trying to re-enter the HGV driver market and there's very little work out there, especially of any quality. Even spoke to an agency earlier in the week and they're not taking on due to them struggling to find placements for the drivers they already have! Could be a local issue though as two local large distribution hubs have shed hundreds of drivers onto the market recently. Not the best situation when you're looking for work after a few months out.

apparently 80% of TV production freelance staff in the north west are presently out of work

Same story in South Wales, in TV and theatre.

International Nuclear Decommissioning: we cannot recruit fast enough. Far more work than people available. If you’ve got the chops, DM me, especially if you have a second language.

Doing badly here.

Lost all our EU clients over the past few years, and many UK ones have moved main ops into the EU.

Nobody wants staff on site anymore (I hardly did that anyway), nor do they care much about seeing us in person even once a year - all remote. Pandemic showed we can all manage remotely, and most of client staff are WFH anyway. Playing field levelled quite considerably to the benefit of any country within two hours time zone difference - eastern Europe is winning, we're losing.

Same across the sector, competitors shedding staff. Everyone getting their snout in the public sector trough if they can manage it.

Seems some bike retailers are doing ok...

I work for an IT Services company, the pipeline seems pretty healthy, although seems to be shifting more to UK government contracts (but that might be just where we're targeting sales & marketing effort)

JE James and Giant together.  What could go wrong with the customer service...

Higher Education is starting to struggle. Lots of redundancies are being announced, yet we are struggling to recruit staff at all levels. At least if the money isn't there, we can pause recruitment and not make redundancies.

Government visa changes have had a huge effect on International student applications.

Payday loans sector?
Debt collection sector?

Aerospace and Defence is doing well.

Lots of sectors down 10% 20% but the economy only shrunk 0.3% so where is the money being spent? Or are all those sectors that are down actually an insignificant portion of the economy? I know people at the coal face so to speak are the ones adversely affected in a recession but somebody's doing ok...

International Nuclear Decommissioning: we cannot recruit fast enough.

Interestingly I've just had a massive repeat order come through from a customer in that exact realm.

fooman
Full Member

Lots of sectors down 10% 20% but the economy only shrunk 0.3% so where is the money being spent?

This is the big thing, recession or not isn't really all that important, especially when you're talking fractions of a percent. What matters really is what the economy's doing, who it's serving, where the money's going. How many people does it employ on minimum wage vs how many million and billionaires does it give more yacht money.

I have absolutely no idea what the actual number is, but the way of modern day corporatism, the economy would need to grow massively in order for the average punter to not get poorer.

International Nuclear Decommissioning: we cannot recruit fast enough. Far more work than people available. If you’ve got the chops, DM me, especially if you have a second language.

I did some decommissioning work on Windscale, I didn't tuck my overalls into my socks to stop dust getting up there like the locals and now have glow in the dark gonads.
True story

I'm in the oil/gas/energy sector making capital equipment for processing purposes.

Over the years, equipment heading to the North Sea has dwindled, now just repair and maintenance - no projects.

However, middle east and far east....companies that I work with are stacked out with work at the moment.

Saudi National Oil (You know, big sponsorship of F1) are spending shed loads of money right now.

Problem, and its huge, just not enough skilled designers, not enugh manufacturing engineers or technicians - all are always desperately looking for staff.

Money is not always the issue, its the skills, and the motivation.

Spoke to my old mate today.

He's a boat builder and works on bespoke hand-built yachts. He was trying to convince me I should return to the UK if I wanted work*.

A small 20ft day thingy starts at 250,000. A big one costs around 3 million.

He says they've never been busier.

Told him he should be asking for a raise.

* I don't and if I did I wouldn't be returning to the UK, let alone Ipswich.

Geotech/ Geoenv consultant here. I'm absolutely flat out and we have been struggling to recruit for ages but order book is looking a bit weak plus postponement of project's. Biggest worry for us is rumours about various big client PM/Engineering Firms being in financial trouble al la Carillion.

For the chap a page up who does rail and road structures exams.. I did that for awhile, absolutely loved that job especially the rail stuff.

He says they’ve never been busier.

Same with lots of top ticket industries and high end cars.

It's almost as if money from the state went distributionally via interest payment income to high net wealth folk...

(Not to mention asset books in equities and crypto.)

The rest of us though...

Reminder

https://twitter.com/jryancollins/status/1529834553329819649?t=HNKsAat2cdrsiebl-9XeWA&s=19

Data centers doing well - AI - drones - terminators ...driverless cars - all coming our way - Yay.................

Emergency medicine- never been busier, thanks to decades of slowly killing the NHS, the crisis in primary care etc. Unfortunately this is not a good thing, and I’m looking to go part time aged 50 just to cling on to my ability to cope.

Might be relevant....

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html

Saudi National Oil (You know, big sponsorship of F1) are spending shed loads of money right now.

They went too far on their plan to build while the rest of the world/industry was quiet and prices were down, and actually pushed prices up!

Not sure I can be bothered with another industry downturn TBH, I've run out of goodwill for this career.

apparently 80% of TV production freelance staff in the north west are presently out of work

Yea, that's my "side-hustle" when my day-job disappears. I avoided the worst of the writers strike fallout*, but seems to be lurching from that straight into recession.

*because even if you're on daytime TV, the surplus of talent at the big budget end of the market rolls downhill. And then when recession hits we all stop because ultimately it's advertising spend that funds TV. Another good reason to keep the license fee, without it there'd be far less production during recessions, and the industry wouldn't bounce back each time.