I was talking about Labour and the Lib Dems, which were 46% combined. They were 43.7% in 2019.
Ah. But it's still more than the Tory vote. TBH nearly half isn't bad imo
https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/1808463945298018467
Sorry I can't embed so here's the text from the Tory baroness:
Sit back down Suella !!
And rein in the indignation Rishi!!
And accept the role you’ve both played in the toxic culture that’s now biting you.
If you spend years dog whistling , ratcheting up divisive rhetoric , stereotyping and demonising communities and failing to act on racism within our own ranks don’t be surprised if you get called a “f’ing ****” by those you enabled , empowered and emboldened.
Let this be a lesson - culture wars may get you headlines but they damage us as a nation.
Brilliant words which hit all the nails on the head. It's a crying shame that she cannot be Tory leader
Timpson is a great appointment. He's currently VC at my university too, not sure if this means he'll be stepping aside.
...and yeah, pretty much bang on from Warsi. It's quite awkward to talk about as a white bloke arguing with the rhetoric of the likes of Braverman and Badenoch etc....but quite simply they are setting themselves up to fail. The voter base that they are trying to appeal to will simply not vote for people of their ethnicity.
I have just got back from the village fete and a couple of pints of fete special IPA from the local craft boys, so I might not be bang on, but looking at vote share etc, I'm not sure we can make any conclusions looking at national totals on this singular snapshot. Local data is interesting -
looking at the Sussex seats that went LibDem - turnout in the early 70s.......
Reform seats (well Boston and Great Yarmouth) - turnout late 50s.......
what is the rationale behind those 2 lower turnouts - is that predictive of something in deprived areas
I suspect that we will see lots of psephological deep dive in the next few weeks into voting trends - and i am not sure that the national trend we see from this election is necessarily reflective of how the country splits on the big questions. I suspect that the middle will come out of this better than it seems. Will be interested to see the analysis of why people voted Reform
Also - are Reform what they appear to be, or sock puppets.......
https://twitter.com/josiahmortimer/status/1809583328049168541
If you spend years dog whistling , ratcheting up divisive rhetoric , stereotyping and demonising communities and failing to act on racism within our own ranks don’t be surprised if you get called a “f’ing ****” by those you enabled , empowered and emboldened.
Absolutely spot on, I said as much a few pages back - zero ****s given from me when he or his children get called such, Sunak and his ilk brought it on themselves with divisive policies, reap what you sow/suck it up princess/you deserve it etc….etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9r3kywqlkno
Worth a read to anyone curious about people still voting Tory, well sort of, most of the reasoning makes absolutely no ******** sense at all.
reasoning?
That's a bit of a stretch.
Listening to interview swith the likes of Rory Stewart after he had the whip withdrawn and Caroline Lukas; a whip not only makes sure you vote the way the patyr needs/wants you to vote but also steers you to vote with some sort of clarity. Votes come so thick and fast that as an individual without a team to guide you, it's barely possible to know what you are actually voting on let alone have read enough to have a coherent view on everything you are voting on.
codybrennan
Free MemberDoes anyone else find it strange that the AV Referendum of 2011 has been almost entirely forgotten about? I dont engage much on social media these days, but found myself drawn into a YT comments section decrying FPTP, and demanding PR. Mostly Reform voters who’d switched from Cons.
I think this is mostly because PR has screwed a different set of people this time round and so people who jsut didn't care very much about it before, are just discovering why it's a problem. At the same time a depressing number of people who hated it for the last few elections seem really happy with it now that it's giving Labour a majority and screwing Reform, and the lib dems are probably pleased enough with their result to not be thinking much about aynthing else.
More of the groundbreaking idea of placing experts with progressive, forward-looking views into the appropriate roles. Its mad that after the recent ‘we’ve had enough of experts’ years, this is actually quite as novelty
Well said @binners
It finally begins to feel like the adults are back in charge at the asylum. Sure, it'll take time to unpick the piles of shit all over the place but at least the common sense is back rather than flag-shagging sloganistic populism.
GBNews are heavily leaning into PR now. This is going to be increasingly pushed over the next few years.
As someone mentioned, suddenly people that didn't give a crap about FPTP/PR are hugely invested in adopting PR. We all know who these people are.
Rather amusingly, the generic talking head on GBN suggests that the Greens/ LibDems might want to team up with Reform to push for PR.
Whilst I don't doubt that the Libdems/Greens want PR im not so sure that are willing to fight for it along side Reform!
The fact Reform and the likes of GBN now want PR has renewed my scepticism of it to be honest, I can't lie!
Does anyone else find it strange that the AV Referendum of 2011 has been almost entirely forgotten about?
The problem with the 2011 referendum was that PR was then seen as the LibDems little baby, indeed one of the conditions the LibDems demanded for going into coalition with the Tories was that there should be a referendum on PR, it was a non-negotiable demand for the LibDems.
That close association with the LibDems doomed the proposal imo.
A year on from Nick Clegg's fateful decision to prop up a Tory prime minister and austerity those on the left of the political spectrum, Labour and most LibDem voters, wanted revenge on Clegg and his Tory-enabling cohorts, killing off their little PR baby seemed an obvious way of doing that, although maybe not entirely rational - revenge often isn't.
Also – are Reform what they appear to be, or sock puppets…….
I did wonder about this. Our candidate did exist, he was caught up in some of the bad press over Facebook links to New British Union and other unsavoury posts. Had visits from all the parties, all happy to chat and seemed clued up on local issues but no Reform leaflets or visits. Still got almost 12% of the vote somehow.
On competence: (forum not letting me add images ATM)
Here you go...
https://twitter.com/JonnyGabriel/status/1809658646927683972The trick at the moment is to edit X URLs and replace X with twitter and it works
Lol, I didn't get that at first.
I'm fairness I haven't a clue about football!
The trick at the moment is to edit X URLs and replace X with twitter and it works
I've tried that recently and for some reason I can't get it to work.
Hopefully it will be sorted so that editing won't be necessary?
The problem with the 2011 referendum was that PR was then seen as the LibDems little baby, indeed one of the conditions the LibDems demanded for going into coalition with the Tories was that there should be a referendum on PR, it was a non-negotiable demand for the LibDems.
That close association with the LibDems doomed the proposal imo.
A year on from Nick Clegg’s fateful decision to prop up a Tory prime minister and austerity those on the left of the political spectrum, Labour and most LibDem voters, wanted revenge on Clegg and his Tory-enabling cohorts, killing off their little PR baby seemed an obvious way of doing that, although maybe not entirely rational – revenge often isn’t.
It wasn't really that at all. Libs asked for PR and Tories offered AV which they knew nobody wanted.
I think the link between the rejection of electoral reform at the referendum and punishing Nick Clegg and the LibDems is widely accepted:
Nick Clegg targeted as anti-AV campaign links him to broken promises
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/feb/05/av-get-clegg-campaign
Nick Clegg: Bitter blow for Lib Dems after AV referendum defeat
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/06/nick-clegg-av-lib-dems
Nick Clegg supported yes which in effect helped to kill the proposal
I think the link between the rejection of electoral reform at the referendum and punishing Nick Clegg and the LibDems is widely accepted
So is a potential conclusion that we rushed a discussion about PR, didn't really understand the issues, and went early to a referendum which failed to hit its mark?
Cameron clearly the wrong person to be pulling the trigger on referenda after that ........ (and I'm thinking brexit and PR not scottish).... anyway
I fear I'll sound like an SNP independence advocate...(stretching things here perhaps), but....just because Cameron had a [few] half-assed attempt[s] at a referendum that wasn't properly set up, that doesn't mean that the outcome then is still relevant now...
After some more fete special IPA, I find myself advocating for 3 rerun referenda:
- EU membership/rejoin
- PR
- Scawtish independence
...After appropriate discussion and reflection...
I appreciate that I my be too far down the IPA-hole at this point...
On the subject of different PR...
https://twitter.com/Andrew_F_Smith/status/1809685447800680505
I remember that the rules governing campaigning for referendums were even less robust during the AV vote than they were for the two more significant referendums that followed it. Official No vote campaign material was full of full of factually incorrect stuff and I think that the financing of the No campaign was spectacularly shady.
As in pretty much all things with the coalition the LibDems were completely outmanoeuvred and outplayed by the Tories when it came to the AV referendum.
On the subject of different PR…
Well it does say "for a bit of fun" which is all that it can be because as it has already been pointed out people don't necessarily vote the same whatever the system, indeed the opposite is true obviously, so that shouldn't be forgotten.
Although having said that I think it is nevertheless fair to say that whatever the system was in place on Thursday we would still have a Labour prime minister today and not a Tory one.
I see one of the Reform wrong'uns has declared one of his first priorities.
Child poverty? The NHS? Social housing?
Nope. Defunding the BBC.
Apart from evidently not giving a shit about the concerns of his constituents, I'm guessing that a taste in opposition as a party of 5 might not be the all powerful platform he thinks it.lol
So is a potential conclusion that we rushed a discussion about PR, didn’t really understand the issues, and went early to a referendum which failed to hit its mark?
Yes just like Brexit.
Cameron clearly the wrong person to be pulling the trigger on referenda after that …….. (and I’m thinking brexit and PR not scottish)…. anyway
Yes.
Back in 2011 I was all up for PR (I'm a Libdem so...) but full one on PR based on the national percentage always left me with the question "who will my MP be"?
Apart from evidently not giving a shit about the concerns of his constituents, I’m guessing that a taste in opposition as a party of 5 might not be the all powerful platform he thinks it.lol
I can’t wait until we see these folk caught on camera when we see the next PMQ’s, they’ll be a toddler play pit in the centre of the commons chamber containing five grinning fools rolling around in their shit and throwing their toys around.
I can’t wait until we see these folk caught on camera when we see the next PMQ’s, they’ll be a toddler play pit in the centre of the commons chamber containing five grinning fools rolling around in their shit and throwing their toys around.
I suspect that it's going to be a rude awakening for them that's for sure.
Barely ever getting a question in to launch some "devastating" sound bite for X later, having to deal with their disgruntled constituents (many of whome will be "characters")... not sure it's really what they signed up for.
I think we all know that the only real "work" that they will do will be posting shit on X from the bog. Oh, and farage will just continue to go full trump and hold rallies for the faithful, complaining how the political system "stole" the election from them...
People are making the AV thing overcomplicated. The Lib Dems got their referendum but the Tories backed the status quo and Labour mostly did, because of course they ****ing did. Well, Labour took no official position- Miliband offered weak support for yes but most MPs and big hitters supported No. Because why would either of the 2 parties that get to take turns being either the winners or the opposition support a change that would ruin that? So the lies- and it was mostly lies, No2AV weren't very interested in anything else- were far louder than the truth
Course, Labour had actually put an AV referendum into the constitutional reform bill. But they did it so late in the parliament that there was no chance of it actually happening, so it was pretty much dismissed as a stunt. And then Labour also included it in their 2010 manifesto. But when it came to it actually happening...
I've never quite understood why the LibDems didn't wake up after the AV referendum stitch up, and realise that they needed to put some ideological distance between them and the Tories publicly.
After the coalition broke down they were only too eager to point out where they had supposedly softened the hard-nosed austerity driven programme, and talked about the successes they had had in toning down some of the worst potential excesses, but by then it was too late.
I'm just waiting for faridge to do what he does on the rare occasion he attend parliament, based on the European parliament. Stand with his back to the room. It'd be nice if they could find a corner and a D hat full the full effect.
Back in 2011 I was all up for PR (I’m a Libdem so…) but full one on PR based on the national percentage always left me with the question “who will my MP be”?
This can be dealt with:
I wanted to check out if the reform candidate here was real. She is and her fb page is full of people saying MPs should be imprisoned or face capital punishment for their failings and promising chaos and riots in the future. Truly scary. Let's hope the tories don't go running to them as one Tory Lord has suggested.
I'm hoping a small corner of the opposition benches gets reupholstered in brown leather and reform told to sit there
faridge
Why do people want to anglicise Farage's foreign sounding name? To spare him the embarrassment of people realising that his ancestors were asylum seekers?
Reform now channeling an old film where everyone betrays each other and they all die in the end. Curious choice.
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1809687787303579766
faridge
Why do people want to anglicise Farage’s foreign sounding name? To spare him the embarrassment of people realising that his ancestors were asylum seekers?
I believe it's a piss take, that's certainly the context I use it in, a northern pronounciation of garage. Your explanation could be equally valid though.
Reform are banking on most people not thinking about the plot, just the image of the 5 gangsters looking cool
And it will probably work
A depressing visit to my parent's yesterday where my sister in law ranted about Starmer and regurgitated every culture war trope she's seen on GBNews but it was very depressing to hear her 10 year old son regurgitate Reforms immigration lies
The rw press and media will ensure that the culture war guff is all that a fair chunk of the population will ever hear about the government.
Back in 2011 I was all up for PR (I’m a Libdem so…) but full one on PR based on the national percentage always left me with the question “who will my MP be”?
@slowoldman the Scottish STV system retains constituency MPs and balances via the regional lists. Best of both worlds IMO, it retains local representation whilst reflecting the wishes of the electorate as a whole.
Thanks squirrelking I shall look into that.
FFS why can't the self-obsessed narcissist just ****-off and focus on giving "advice" to the murderous despots who pay him so handsomely?
In all the talk about the Labour victory, I hadn’t noticed that Sunak had made his campaign manager Liam Booth-Smith a Lord and given a knighthood to Oliver Dowden, presumably as reward for the staggeringly successful campaign they’ve just run for him. How fitting as a final act of cronyism from this shower
@kimbers I fear we are at the early stages of division as seen in America. It’s bad when politics starts dividing families as you have experienced. Just hope Reform implodes at some point
I think the main issue facing Starmer now is how to hang onto the Labour voters who held their nose and voted Labour just to get the Tories out. There was a sort of "agreement" (if you can call it that) and sites like TacticalVote telling people how to vote solely to ensure the Tories got defeated.
Now that's happened, there's the same risk of what took the Tories so far to the right in the first place - the desperate fear they had of UKIP. With Reform now having actual MPs free to spout their racist shite in the Commons, it's even more of a risk that the populist bollocks will once again win out.
Ironic that the whole referendum shite, the whole "you could have chaos with Ed Milliband" stuff that lead to a Tory victory and then Brexit was designed to keep the Tories in and Nigel Farage out of Parliament.
Yeah, that worked well didn't it, you ****ing idiots. Never try to appease right wingers. That whole culture war that eventually swallowed the Tories could have been avoided if they'd simply said "**** off" to the UKIP'ers and the flag shaggers but no, they had to try and out-do them.
We had people come out and spit at us. I had my name constantly interrogated about where I was ‘really from’.
Labour candidate defeated by Farage.
Never try to appease right wingers
Before he called the monumentally stupid referendum, Dave already had them summed up as ‘people who won’t take yes for an answer’, so you’d think he’d bloody know what he was dealing with!
The right can never be appeased. They’re like the Taliban and will just get ever more extreme. I’m pretty certain that won’t stop the Tories now trying as they elect a complete headbanger as leader and then get led around by the nose by Farage, tacking ever further right
Hmm, dodgy stuff from Reform? Surely not... ?!
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/
Squirrel and Slow..... the electoral reform society has lots of useful info on different PR systems.....Scotland broadly shares the same way of doing things w Germany - a system created by the allies postwar to stop democracy being subverted.
They also have examples of how UK GEs would have played out if using PR. Well worth a read
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/
Looks like Macron has somewhat successfully called their bluff too. Turns
Isn't it the radical left who has stopped the far-right from seizing power rather than the centrists?
I'm sure there is a lesson to be learnt there somewhere.
Isn’t it the radical left who has stopped the far-right from seizing power rather than the centrists?
Erm, no, it's both the left and the centrists who have worked together to focus votes in certain areas to combat the far right candidates getting in.
Ah, is that what it is?
So the centrists couldn't have done it without help from the radical left.
I’m sure there is a lesson to be learnt there somewhere.
Vive la France!
Aka where's the French election thread gone?
Look at their sad racist faces!!
Plenty of Palestinian flags on show at the Popular Front's victory rally.
Seems that Western governments support for a far-right genocidal regime in Israel might have affected the French legislative elections as it did the UK's on Thursday.
Maybe another lesson to be learnt?
Yep, the anti-NR folk I've spoken to are centrist and left. Am staying right opposite the town hall (counting spot) in La Rochelle and we've had people out there with anti-fascism flags and the NR posters have been nicely adapted. We live in hope.
@crazy-legs. - I’ve just read that article and it’s exactly what we found in this constituency as I posted on this thread at the time
When we got our postal votes through, we googled the Reform candidate and we couldn’t find a single thing out about her. Nothing! No social media presence, no photos of her, she was absolutely invisible! Like she didn’t exist.
Like she didn’t exist
This. I'm almost certain she didn't
This is officially good news.
Much crying on X from reform voters that seemed to think their 5 wrong'uns were going to ride the crest of a shit tsunami on the back of a far right French victory.
Poor little flowers. I do worry so for them.
Dunno if this has been done but interesting picks as Justice Secretary and attorney general. Both prepared to criticize Isreal I believe and Thornbury sidelined - she has a rather more pro Isreal stance.
Ernie - you know about this stuff. Is my optimism justified? could we actually see labour stopping being scared of being labeled anti semites for criticizing Isreal?
There seems to be a few loud voices on this forum demonising 'centrists', I guess I'm a centrist, but I prefer the term 'moderate', myself.
Well done France.. I'm not a huge fan of Macron, but a lurch further to the right would be far more worrying.
Here's to a more libral EU!
Cheers!
Is my optimism justified?
It's not for me to say! But yes, I am hugely encouraged by Starmer's choice of Attorney General. I keep banging on about it to people in the local Palestine solidarity movement half expecting someone to tell me that it's all not quite what it seems (they are all very cynical and suspicious ****ers) but no one has yet. I think it's taken everyone by surprise.
If this does indeed mark a shift in Starmer's stance on Palestine I am absolutely certain that it is related to Thursday's general election result.
Whilst it has obviously been recognised I think the Gaza effect on Thursday's election has been understated. Independents almost never win a parliamentary seat in the UK, very occasionally every few years one might. On Thursday 5 did as a direct result of Starmer's stance on Gaza, all 5 of them former Labour Party members.
Starmer's Secretary of State for Health came within a whisker of losing his seat over Gaza. Throughout the country sitting Labour MPs in safe seats saw their share of the vote fall from 2019 over the issue, including here in Croydon.
Starmer himself saw his 36k 2019 vote reduced to 18k on Thursday because of his stance on Gaza. At yesterday's rally Andrew Feinstein claimed that Starmer is the first person to become Prime Minister in British history to come to office after seeing a drop in their own personal vote.
Starmer's stance on Gaza and his support for the far-right Israeli government has clearly had considerable negative electoral consequences for Labour, he appears to have acknowledged that.
And despite his huge majority he knows that it is built on a very shaky foundation with half a million less votes than 2019 - he needs win back the people for whom Gaza was a red line.
Richard Hermer's appointment seems to be a step in that direction. Hopefully it will be followed up with more encouraging developments including the UK's stance as a Permanent member of the United Nations Security Council
What’s the shift? Two state solution as the long term aim as the plan. Calling for Israel to abide by, and be held to, international law. Saying Israel should not be going into Rafah. All this has been said for months now by Labour. For those that have tried to use Gaza for political gain against Labour to now claim they have changed how the UK government acts towards Israel… it’s nonsense. Those who have elected Labour MPs have made this happen, not those that tried to stop them being elected, like Galloway and his mob.
There seems to be a few loud voices on this forum demonising ‘centrists’, I guess I’m a centrist, but I prefer the term ‘moderate’,
Well yes you might like that term however to put "moderate" into perspective Joe Manchin is often described as a "moderate democrat". Whereas the more accurate description is he is a right wing nutter but just not quite into maga terrority.
Which ultimately is the problem with "centrists". Leaving aside the libdems who accept that they arent the not very silent majority sadly a lot believe that the only people who count are themselves.
Luckily in France despite some elements of the centre being unwilling to work with the left against the fascists it seems to have got past the post.
Kelvin - the shift is that Thornbury was lined up for attorney general and she is a uncritical Isreali supporter. She wasn't given the post despite being shadow for several years. Instead its gone to an Isreali criti8c.
Thats a big shift. Why we can only speculate.
Ta Ernie
Well yes you might like that term however to put “moderate” into perspective Joe Manchin is often described as a “moderate democrat”. Whereas the more accurate description is he is a right wing nutter but just not quite into maga terrority.
Which ultimately is the problem with “centrists”. Leaving aside the libdems who accept that they arent the not very silent majority sadly a lot believe that the only people who count are themselves.
Luckily in France despite some elements of the centre being unwilling to work with the left against the fascists it seems to have got past the post.
I think you have to view American politics through a certain critical lense...I mean if the US media is to be taken seriously, anyone left of Barack Obama is viewed as Pol pot.
the shift is that Thornbury was lined up for attorney general and she is a uncritical Isreali supporter
She has been critical of the current and previous Israeli governments, especially as regards settlement expansion and eviction and removal of Palestinians. Where does this “uncritical supporter” nonsense come from? The appointees look spot on to me by the way, the right experience for sure, far more than Thornberry. That she hasn’t popped up elsewhere in another government role is interesting though… what’s going on there?
And despite his huge majority he knows that it is built on a very shaky foundation with half a million less votes than 2019 – he needs win back the people for whom Gaza was a red line.
No he doesn't. Those people don't matter in a fptp system. They tend to be in places where the labour vote is strong enough to win without them and they're not voting Tory. Obviously pandering to the Muslim vote will have consequences, both within Labour (Jess Phillips abuse), and it provides a very clear attack line from the right. Starmer won by being bland enough that Tory voters stayed at home and keeping hold of enough Labour voters throughout the country. Getting 40% of the vote everywhere is much better than getting 95% of the vote in 40% of the seats but losing the rest.
Where does this “uncritical supporter” nonsense come from?
You do realise that it isn't necessary to describe opinions which you don't agree with as nonsense, don't you?
Thornbury is a member of Labour Friends of Israel which isn't known for its criticism of Israel. And I don't think she has made the moral and legal case for BDS, Richard Hermer definitely has, and as a consequence the zionists are not very happy with him.
Btw if you want to delude yourself into believing that Gaza had no significant effect on Thursday's election and that Starmer doesn't have to change his stance on Gaza at all then that's obviously up to you.
But it would be disingenuous imo to suggest that Starmer was totally unbothered by seeing his vote halved and Wes Streeting very almost lose his seat over the issue.
How much that affects Starmer's position on Palestine is difficult to establish atm but he would clearly be a fool not to think very carefully about how to regain lost votes.
Labour only got 34% of the vote on Thursday ffs. Whilst the arithmetic behind first-past-the-post worked very well this time there is no guarantee that it will do so next time.
Starmer needs to figure out a way of winning back some of the more than 3 million votes Labour has lost since 2017. Preferably before 2029 - there will plenty of local and by-elections before then.
Edit : FFS I had to edit because I was being too generous, Labour didn't get 36% of the vote on Thursday, they got 34% ! Thirty-four ****ing percent!
And some people can't see a problem with that because of first-past-the-post? You're having a laugh.
I see the left united to defeat the far right. Excellent.
Straight away we have one person trying to divide them again. Oh well.
There's a certain type of lefty that always prefers being out of power and influence so they can stand at the side moaning and being virtuous, without having to do anything difficult like run a nation.
You mean like celebrating the fact that Starmer has chosen Richard Hermer to be Attorney General?
That sort of "moaning" or did you have something else in mind?
Starmer needs to figure out a way of winning back some of the more than 3 million votes Labour has lost since 2017. Preferably before 2029 – there will plenty of local and by-elections before then.
If winning those votes only means increased majorities in safe seats and an energised opposition it's not worth it. Corbyn proved this. He lost twice, Starmer doesn't frighten Tory voters however the right wing media try to portray him. Our electoral system isn't fit for purpose but we know the rules so it's there to be gamed.
