Is there anywhere to watch the results that doesn’t have people that give me the urge to smash my TV? Tried C4 and BBC so far
I'm listening to Radio 4 - or more accurately, I'm watching Radio 4 being broadcast on iPlayer, which is really weird because not only am I putting faces to the voices I've been hearing for years, including the woman who reads the news, you can see the whole studio and see what people are doing when they aren't talking. People are making nodes or apparently looking stuff up online, some are on their phones, producer types keep coming in and out to hand them things or fix audio gear and whatnot. Quite absorbing.
Massive vote for Reform! 29%! Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans!
Although the Reform/tory votes is lower than the Tory/Ukip vote in 2019.
Roughly a switch between the two and then a loss of a thousand votes each side.
Not a great labour vote. Up on 2019 but down on 2017 and 2015.
Nice to think that Sunak has his suitcases packed and ready to go in the No10 lobby. 😀
It’s worth remembering that the new Parliamentary Tory Party is likely to be less right-wing than the previous one.
Dunno if that's true. They've got a tricky decision on whether they move left or right. Either could work. Either could fail
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1808966353313018010
Rishi Sunak handed a knighthood to Tory minister Alister Jack who admitted placing three bets on the election date, just an hour before polls closed in the General Election.
...
Mr Jack is alleged to have told a reporter he’d won £2,100 betting on the date of the election in the wake of Mr Sunak’s surprise announcement. But he later claimed his comments were "a joke... I was pulling your leg".
Guess we know which votes Labour are going to be chasing for the next 5 years.
Not a bad thing though?
Reform voters having some political influence despite FPTP. As was the reason often given for voting Green even where they had no chance of winning.
And for everyone, best have those voters' concerns adequately addressed by sensible people rather than do nothing about them risking further rise of the far right.
I mean it's nasty but we're in a democracy.
Channel 4
Mad Naz - what the **** is there for. Not opened her mouth since I turned on. The pay cheque I guess.
Guardian:
Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, has just told the BBC that they are least confident about the seat figures for Reform UK (13) and for the SNP (10).
With the SNP, he says they have fewer sampling points in Scotland, making it harder to get a firm forecast. But he says he is confident about Labout being the larger party in Scotland.
And he says, with Reform UK, there are seats where they are ahead, but the margin is very tight. He says they could end up with quite a lot less seats, or perhaps even more.
Oh, looks like George Galloway is losing his seat in the exit poll! I'll treat myself to a malted milk for that, ?
Sunderland with Reform in the second place. Approximately 7k plus difference only.
Sunderland was the most Brexity city in the UK (IIRC). If Reform were only a Brexit party, you'd expect their support there to be the strongest in the country. But with their new, overt xenophobic platform, maybe they have a wider appeal.
That reform vote in Sunderland ?
5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR....very hard to see how LD and Green navigate that. We're seemingly not far away from the wider European far right turn.....but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?
Hat of the day in Blyth. I'm assuming that's a uniform, not her normal wardrobe.
“Dunno if that’s true. They’ve got a tricky decision on whether they move left or right. Either could work. Either could fail”
They’ll be likes rats in a sack tomorrow morning. What emerges from that is most likely (unless the bookies are wrong) to be led by Badanoch or Braverman and will so be indistinguishable from Reform
So if the SNP is down from 43 to 13 of 59, where does that leave the independence movement?
That reform vote in Sunderland ?
5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR….very hard to see how LD and Green navigate that. We’re seemingly not far away from the wider European far right turn…..but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?
This. My feelings too. Scary.
the median share of the vote for Labour has been 38%, and 42% for Conservatives. Labour have polled as per historic rate.
Is that what the exit poll is predicting - 38%?
Not only is that less than Labour recieved in 2017 it's only 6% more than they received in the disaster that was the 2019 general election.
Labour have their work cut out, I can't imagine that they will have the luxury of a honeymoon period.
It's also what I predicted on this thread yesterday! I suggested that it would likely be 38% for Labour and 24% for the Tories. I have no idea how close my Tory prediction was?
"If he has held his seat then he will have to resign his seat and step down before leaving, surely"
Forecast is bad for tomorrow. Do you think they'll be able to organise a brolly this time?
second result, reform in second place again. they are going to get a significant % of the votes even if they only get a few seats
Vorders is in CH4 later. Look forward to her take!
I'd be delighted if Reform got a huge slice of the vote but minimal number of seats.
“Labour have their work cut out, I can’t imagine that they will have the luxury of a honeymoon period.”
I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party is deluded enough to believe there would be a honeymoon period Ernesto.
Starmer had already said he’s pushing back and shortening the summer recess so they can set about getting stuff done. Nobody is going on holiday
but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?
No it really isnt. Since as it is they are being pandered to but despite that still whine about being victims.
FPTP fundamentally fails everyone but a minority of swing voters.
Reform are doing well since they are offering a change. Now I struggle to see why anyone would believe Farages company given the track record but I cant blame people for looking at the choices and thinking sod it its worth a gamble.
Not only is that less than Labour recieved in 2017 it’s only 6% more than they received in the disaster that was the 2019 general election.
4 horse race, particularly seeing how much Reform are polling.
I think both Blyth and Sunderland are demographically likely to be higher than normal on reform support; as noted before very brexity, quite anti-immigration, etc. I wonder what reform % will be like in more 'moderate' areas
Widdicombe really is a truly dreadful human being isn't she.
ITV briefly explained vote efficiency, which is partly why vote share flatters 2017 election and labour. Large support but in fewer seats, so not impacting seat gains. That has changed. An interesting factor to consider, and not simply Starmer's luck. Changing the distribution of votes to areas where it can change seat outcomes, is an achievement.
Two results in and a strong reform result in both – tory revolt
It looks to be a tory switch.
Houghton and Sunderland South
The reform/tory vote is lower than the tory/ukip vote in 2019 with Labour having increased.
Blyth and Ashington is trickier since its a constituency change but seems to be roughly the same.
So unfortunately the tory voters have switched from tories to Farage plc.
So if the SNP is down from 43 to 13 of 59, where does that leave the independence movement?
A debate for another day. Next holyrood election will be much more important but I am reading the SNP loses as two things - 1) a general hold your nose and vote the tories out and 2) after 17 years in power in holyrood thy are tired and folk are tired of them - but you must remember the SNP are only a part of the independence movement and the way FPTP works in Scotland with the extra party small shifts can mean big losses.
Werstminster elections are not so important for the indepeneence movement
But a debate for another thread and time
Ok, I am putting myself out there for ridicule. Can someone explain to me why it is something to be worthy of concern, right now, that we see people voting for Reform. They aren't going to win many seats, the majority of their team will not win. LD will get more seats but nobody is going Oooooh we are going to be ruled by the LD's. Surely its just a load of guff?
hope the trend that the exit poll is over estimating the reform % continues. though it is underestimating the tory vote too
FPTP fundamentally fails everyone but a minority of swing voters.
As long as it's failing reform voters it's doing its job. If we had PR right now Reform could well be the official opposition. They may look like a ramshackle bunch of idiots now but give them time and they'll do what the french fascists have done and make themselves more presentable. Early days yet but the signs are ominous.
I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party is deluded enough to believe there would be a honeymoon period.
That's likely to cause him problems then. Tony Blair came to office in 1997 with a huge wave of public approval, and it would appear a much larger share of the vote.
This provided Blair with a lot of public goodwill and a long honeymoon period (for the record I thought he was a ****) He was able cash in on this goodwill for a long time.
If Starmer has to be on the defensive and prove himself right from the start that's not a good thing. Prime Ministers always become less popular with time so it helps to start from a high point.
Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we'll see.
Hang on, you think Starmer won't last 12 months?
They aren’t going to win many seats
That in itself is a problem for me. They should win seats regardless of how much any of us, especially me, dislike the idea. We will be ending up with a bunch of disillusioned and pissed off people who dont feel represented. That never ends well.
Surely its just a load of guff?
For me the main problem is they are addressing a serious problem ignored by the other parties. They shouldnt be getting the votes because the other parties should be doing something to address their needs rather than chasing first past the post.
That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our democracy.
Sense of perspective, yes reform have done ‘well’, however they’re only at 10% of the Tories predicted numbers.
“Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we’ll see.”
I’ll happily take that bet.
"Ok, I am putting myself out there for ridicule. Can someone explain to me why it is something to be worthy of concern, right now, that we see people voting for Reform. They aren’t going to win many seats, the majority of their team will not win. LD will get more seats but nobody is going Oooooh we are going to be ruled by the LD’s. Surely its just a load of guff?"
There's been a consistent shift to the hard right across Europe, but we have fptp and Europe is generally some form of proportional representation which gives them more of a footing.
so there's really two outcomes for the UK.
1. That a few seats here for reform is a beachhead to reform takeover of parliament
2. What will actually happen is they will do sweet fa for five years and lose their seats, if they haven't already been kicked out of parliament and lose them in by-elections.
Those fond of clutching their handbags at the meer mention of farage think it's outcome 1
you think Starmer won’t last 12 months?
I think that he won't last long, no. Personally I don't think he is prime ministerial material, certainly not in the way that Blair was. I suspect that Labour will need to replace him before the next general election. But as I said, we'll see.
Edit: For example I don't think that Starmer is decisive enough to deal with the endless crises that Prime Ministers have to face. But we will know when we cross that bridge - leaders of the Opposition don't have to deal with crisis in the way Prime Ministers have to.
Hat of the day in Blyth. I’m assuming that’s a uniform, not her normal wardrobe.
I immediately thought of
If it really is 13 I will die laughing if farage isn't one of them
Dorris is a quite worrying person to have ever held a modicum of powered.
They should win seats regardless of how much any of us, especially me, dislike the idea.
German liberals in the 1930s would probably agree.
Edit: Looks like a significant swing from both tories and labour to reform in brexit voting areas. This is how it starts.
Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we’ll see.
Utter bollocks as usual ernie. FFS
I think both Blyth and Sunderland are demographically likely to be higher than normal on reform support; as noted before very brexity, quite anti-immigration, etc. I wonder what reform % will be like in more ‘moderate’ areas
BBC analysis just now saying Leave voting seats are showing 18% swing to Reform; Remain voting seats 9%
I think they'll net out at something like 15-18% overall. What will also be interesting is whether their vote is inflated because as a 'protest' vote are voters more motivated to go out and vote. So they got 26.9% of a 53% turnout in Blyth - means round numbers 14% of eligible voters overall.... is that (extreme to make the point) 100% of the actual Reform supporters turning out, or did 47% of Reform supporters really stay at home, etc. Were labour and tory voters the main contributors to the low turnout because it was a 'foregone conclusion' for both of them?
Nadine is just remarkable!!!
Some times a nick name is completely justified.
Mad Nad, she wears it with pride.
Think I can only manage 10 mins at a time of Nadine. Alistair Campbell is going to swear at her soon...she is poison incarnate
Another hefty reform vote ?
Taking a lot of votes from Tory.....I can only see a hard right turn from them in response.
Utter bollocks as usual ernie. FFS
Unable to make a point without resorting to insults?
German liberals in the 1930s would probably agree.
Where to start with this?
Actually lets go for the easy starter for ten. If someone tries to overthrow the government then dont treat them with kid gloves? Think of any fptp country where that happened recently?
Then the follow up is when they get a third of the vote and so arent close to power then dont give them complete control.
I would lob in telling the Stalin lovers to sod off as well but thats a niche case in the UK.
Edit: Looks like a significant swing from both tories and labour to reform in brexit voting areas.
Edit: Where are you getting this from.
From the one seat we can directly cross reference the reform/tory vote has dropped from the tory/ukip vote whilst labour has increased.
For the one we cant whilst the labour vote has dropped in comparison to the main previous constituency so has the reform/tory vote.
It looks mostly so far a switch from tory to reform but a lot staying home.
I've never understood what determines the timing of when results are released? Aside from some teams being quicker at counting, is it down to electorate size/turnout and geography or what?
My proxy vote is in an electorate that's been Tory since 1924 ... there's a chance it could go to Reform.
Agree with Ernie that Starmer is indecisive and I’ll be surprised if his legacy is positive. But something seriously major will have to happen for him to be out of office in less than 12 months!!
I managed less than 10 minutes of CH4 coverage. The USP of TRIP and Maitlis and he podcast is grown up, respectful and serious political discussion....Dorries does not bring that. Nor does ****ing gogglebox
Mad Nad has either flounced or gone to the bar. Probably both
Edit: For example I don’t think that Starmer is decisive enough to deal with the endless crises that Prime Ministers have to face.
I'm not sure decisiveness will be an issue now the GE is won, he had to do hand stands on a tightrope during the GE, that's done with now. I believe Starmer will graft, a lot of it wont necessarily make headlines but the results will. He will be the Labour leader going into the next GE.
Let me know if the CH4 coverage takes a more sensible turn post Nads! BBC is pretty dry
I'm opening myself up to getting flamed for empathising with people, but life is f k ng shit for a lot of people. They've been let down by successive Tory governments, they've been consistently told that Labour is just the same. So the frog faced c t is throwing out all this claptrap that immigrants, human rights, and foreigners are to blame for their woes and they're buying it. If your social media is feeding you this all day it'll get through.
I'm frankly surprised they haven't got more of the vote, however depressing that would be
.
That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our democracy.
That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our education.
there’s really two outcomes for the UK.
1. That a few seats here for reform is a beachhead to reform takeover of parliament
2. What will actually happen is they will do sweet fa for five years and lose their seats, if they haven’t already been kicked out of parliament and lose them in by-elections.
3. By the time there's another GE Reform UK won't exist and Garage will be back with the Send Them Back Where They Came From party or some other populist nonsense.
Personally I don’t think he is prime ministerial material, certainly not in the way that Blair was. I suspect that Labour will need to replace him before the next general election.
I'm inclined to agree. On that QA thing a few days ago, Sunak ran rings around him.
Tom-B
Free Member5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR…
I doubt it, I think they'll be fantasising about either becoming the dominant right wing party or a coalition builder under fptp
I mean, it's absolutely true that FPTP unfairly suppresses their number of seats, as it did with UKIP. But that's not in isolation, the big picture is that they'd have more seats under a more representative system but that they'd have less chance of ever having actual power.
We'll be able to make better observations about this tomorrow once we've got national voter share figures, obviously you can't just assume that people would vote the same under a different system, but it's reasonable to say that the bulk of right-of-centre governments have happened because FPTP rewarded the tories for being one strong party and punished left of centre parties for being more diverse. Certainly the recent "majorities" have depended completely on FPTP. Nobody right of centre is blind to that I think.
"BUT WHAT ARE YOU DOING WITH THE TRAILS BEHIND NATIONWIDE?!"
Haha Buckland!!
@Northwind Reform guy on BBC was straight in with the PR calls.
Robert Buckland gone with a 16% swing
The first of many, surely?
"I’m inclined to agree. On that QA thing a few days ago, Sunak ran rings around him."
Because question time is truly representative of running a country...
I'd rather have a thoughtful person with empathy than the shouty dweeb we've had in no10 recently
please can the tory stronghold here in devizes change also like swindon also please.
fantastic to see the tories getting soundly slapped (shame about reform though getting seats/votes though).
Nor does **** gogglebox
No idea why CH4 decided to put Gogglebox on, daft decision.
I'm expecting a Starmer government to be boring but competent managers/bureaucrats and hard workers. I think that'll be what's most needed to deal with systematic and institutional sized problems.
But something seriously major will have to happen for him to be out of office in less than 12 months!!
Sure, I'm thinking of unresolved crises and a total collapse in the opinion polls for Labour with a stratospheric rise in support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
The crucial issue here imo is the one which I suggested earlier, Labour don't appear to be coming to power with a large share of the vote and strong personal approval for the Leader, unlike 1997.
And the economy is not in the same place as it was in 1997.
Starmer has his work cut out. Personally I don't think that he is up to the job. But I could be wrong of course - there is no way of knowing until he is tested.
People seem to have forgotten that he owes most of his success to the failures of the Tories. From now on the buck stops with him. It's a whole new ball game.
I am reading the SNP loses as two things – 1) a general hold your nose and vote the tories out and 2) after 17 years in power in holyrood thy are tired and folk are tired of them – but you must remember the SNP are only a part of the independence movement
It makes no sense to switch from the SNP to Labour if you want to GTTO.
It's true that the SNP is one component of the independence movement, and it's true that support for independence doesn't track support for the SNP. But the SNP is the standard-bearer and bulwark and dominant component of that movement. There is no effective organising body for Scottish independence other than the SNP, and independence is the defining policy of the SNP. There's no-one other than the SNP that can deliver independence...and there's no confidence in the SNP's ability to deliver anything.
There's also the slightly awkward point that the SNP is broke as a result of the shenanigans of its former leadership and it's probably going to lose a whole bunch of state election funding.
There's not a world in which the collapse in support for the SNP isn't a massive setback for the independence movement. Maybe even a generational one...
Farage criticising the MSM for not having reform members on the shows... then cuts to one of them on CH4. What a dick head.
I’m expecting a Starmer government to be boring but competent managers/bureaucrats and hard workers. I think that’ll be what’s most needed to deal with systematic and institutional sized problems.
I hope this is right. It'll take 3-4 years to even produce a 10 year plan to un-fluff this country from 14 years of nihilism and destruction. With luck, Labour will win a second five year term, get halfway through executing it, things will improve - and then the electorate will elect a new government that will drive it into the sea again. 🙁
