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Well there we go. I was starting to consider a switch from Green to a tactical Labour vote. Never joining EU in Starmer's lifetime eh? **** off then!
“I’m hoping Starmers tactic is to queitly push for allignment with SM & CU”
Got to LOL at people who still come out with this level of fantasy wishful thinking despite Starmer comprehensively ruling it out repeatedly over and over again at every opportunity over the past several years.
Again and again. Read his lips. No alignment, no membership, pretend or otherwise. He really does believe he can “make a success of Brexit”.
He’s a good 5 years behind the majority of the population and heading in the wrong direction.
And the foundation for a new myth has already been laid, even before the polling stations have opened.
"making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms"
The majority of opinion polls of the last week show that Labour's share of the vote is likely to be smaller than it was in 2017.
And if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms then whilst it looks certain that Starmer will win tomorrow there is no evidence that he personally will win the following general election, although Labour might well.
Winning one general election is hardly a claim to being the most successful Labour leader in history.
What Starmer undoubtedly is is the luckiest Labour leader in history. In fact he is possibly the luckiest UK party leader ever in history.
If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?
There’s a brexit thread already.
This is the election thread, it’s tomorrow, no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.
It’s a non-issue *for this thread*.
It's impossible to talk about a GE without talking about brexit....just as it's impossible to talk about a GE without talking about health, social care, education, human rights, etc.
All of these things are intrinsically linked.
spekkie
Free Member
I wonder how the voters in Kent that wanted Brexit and got a lorry park in their back gardens for their troubles will vote?over ready deal and all that.
Kentite here. Not everyone if the SE wanted Brexit I can tell you. Or the Tories.
Lincolnshire seems to be the Brexit capital of the UK in fact. However, I'm making a generalisation that also assumes everyone there also loves Brexit and it's always more complex that generalisations allow for.
Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.
no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.
the SNP. the Greens. We do not all live in racist pockets of England
Brexit will remain the number one political theme as it is. How much has it been talked about in the press? How many times has Starmer been asked about it? How many times has he lied about it?
then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.
I suggest that you do it the other way around.....up first thing tomorrow to get to the polling station and then have a bike ride on Friday 💡
I don’t think it was more than 60/40 anywhere either way, was it?
Significantly more pro EU across most of Scotland. My area was almost 75: 25 IIRC Scotland overall was more than 60% remain
If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?
How many times have we had a genuine 4 party option?
Man maths but if you base line as an equal proportion per party and then see what the parties are getting as a % of that
So in a three party fight, as most have been for the past however long, if all equally voted for you'd expect 33.3% vote share (not really because others also take typically 5-10% overall, but as a model it works)
1997 Blair won with 43.2% in a 3 way race - 43.2/33.3 = 130% of nominal share / 419 seats
2001 L @ 40.7% = 122% / 413
2005 L @ 35.2% = 107% / 356
2010 C @ 36.1 = 108% / 307
2015 C @ 36.8 = 111% / 331 (potential to see as 4 party - UKIP took 12.6% votes share but LD was massacred so maybe they cancel)
2017 C @ 42.3 = 127% / 318 (almost a 2 horse race - no UKIP and LD still massacred - C+L in this election got 82.3% votes share between them)
2019 C@ 43.6 = 131% / 365 seats
2024 L @41% say - but 41% vs a 25% nominal share = 164% and on for well over 400 seats, some say as high as 450
So 41% might be a low overall % but the vagaries of FPTP AND the fact it's a genuine 4 horse race means as a proportion of the nominal 'all parties equally supported' hypothesis it's actually pretty high.
The other bit is of course that if it was 3 party and if T + RUK were combined then it would be a lot closer. But RUK has IIRC been taking out of every 3 votes won, 2 from T and 1 from L so can't necessarily use that addition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_elections_overview
It’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about brexit….just as it’s impossible to talk about a GE without talking about health, social care, education, human rights, etc.
All of these things are intrinsically linked.
I agree, Brexit is the worst political 'thing' in my lifetime and I still haven't got over it tbh.
Just rather this thread didn't go round and round on a single issue, it's been good when it keeps moving. 👍
Most people are no where near as engaged in politics at as the people on here and they voted in large part for Boris in ’19 because they were sick to death of Brexit consuming politics.
He could have just stayed quiet on the matter but instead he decided to give a two fingers to everyone who isnt still deluded about brexit.
He seems desperate to pander to the tory voters whilst his acolytes shout about anyone who doesnt vote for him is voting for the tories.
He really is making it hard to tactically vote to get the tories out considering his utter contempt for anyone who isnt a tory. We keep hearing the guff about a ming vase but he seems quite happy to be ****ting anyone left wing over the head in his desperation to please the right.
bails
Full Member
Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.
Very good.👍😁
Not a bad idea as long as you have a few tory voting mates you can convince to vote Friday too!
If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?
The Tory implosion has certainly helped, but then Starmer helped with that in his own eay
When he asked "where all the rules followed? " Johnson lied and said yes Starmer finished with "we'll leave it there"
Starmer has said he didn't know for sure what has gone on but the news about the allegra Stratton video had just leaked
When he took over labour were at 29pts,
He'll be 10pts ahead tomorrow?
Certainly not seeing the world on fire, but good competent enough
no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.
the SNP. the Greens. We do not all live in racist pockets of England
The Greens are not an influential party. The SNP is influential in the small minority of constituencies where it stands, but it does not have a policy of rejoining the EU. It has a two step policy of independence and then Scotland becoming a member of the EU. That's an even longer timescale than the UK becoming a member of the EU again, which itself would take years and years. And that's if the EU states were even interested in hearing our bullshit at all - we have seen how the "they need us more than we need them" argument plays out already.
We do not all live in racist pockets of England - nor irredentist pockets of Northern Ireland or separatist pockets of Scotland.
How many times have we had a genuine 4 party option?
I am not sure how relevant the basis for Starmer's extraordinarily good luck is to the point being made, i.e. he is quite possibly the luckiest political leader ever rather than the most outstandingly astute Labour leader ever, but yeah, a combination of a genuine 4 party option plus the vagaries of first-past-the-post lie at the root of this exceptionally good luck.
Plus the Tories being on some sort of kamikaze mission for the last couple of years or so.
you pointed out that getting a massive majority with only 38% of the vote (a rough cut across polls says 40-41% probably) was odd, I was just explaining why I don't think that 38-40% in a 4 horse race is as low as it looks.
The rest, being lucky to have run into a campaign as inept as Rishi's, after a government in absolute turmoil, and with a fourth party stealing votes 2:1 from them - couldn't agree more. By basically doing or saying nothing controversial, he's played his hand as well as he needed to.
you pointed out that getting a massive majority with only 38% of the vote (a rough cut across polls says 40-41% probably) was odd
No I didn't. I didn't say anything about it being odd. I said that it will be extraordinarily lucky for Starmer to receive the largest majority since 1832 with such a small share of the vote, as predicted by Survation.
I know exactly what the basis for this good extraordinary luck is - a very divided non-Labour vote.
And the 38% figure was from Survation - I was specifically referring to their prediction, quote:
If the Survation prediction turns out to be correct how many party leaders will have been lucky enough to have had the biggest House of Commons majority since 1832 with only 38% of the vote?
Well, nearly time for an early night tonight, then a big day out on the bike tomorrow, and up first thing on Friday to get to the polling station.
Very good.👍😁
Not a bad idea as long as you have a few tory voting mates you can convince to vote Friday too!
😁
What, both of them?
Bravo 👏🏿 😂
why they’re still undecided.
There are a lot of people who are undecided who to vote for, even if they are certain who they are not going to vote for.
For them the dilemma is often whether to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, or SNP.
Plus of course some 2019 Tory voters haven't decided whether to vote Reform UK.
Many people are not a 100% certain who they are going to vote for until the ballot paper is in front of them.
It took me a while before I was completely certain that Sadiq Khan would win the London Mayoral election before I decided to definitely vote Green.
if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms
”if” ?
You can keep hammering 2017 as some kind of success for Labour, and in some ways it was… but the chance to build on that was squandered by a reluctance to accept and understand the defeat, and replace the leader. The aftermath of the wasted years after 2017 has been a long slow rebuild, by a team I didn’t think were up to completing the task in time for this next election. Hopefully tomorrow will prove me wrong. It looks more promising than I could ever have imagined in 2020.
They're increasingly desperate...
Stupidly watching Newsnight, and they've got that ghastly reptile Guto Harri on, he can F right off.
C4 for me tomorrow.
Vote to consign the tories to 3rd place tomorrow people. Tactical Tactical Tactical. F*ck the tories up like they've f*cked the country up.
LibDem here for me, whatever works in your own constituency.
Vote well people
And if winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms
Like what else would be a success? You're gaslighting/trolling us Ernie. FFS!
Anyway off to bed, have been out doing eve of poll leaflet drops, and doing some polling station telling and tracking tomorrow morning so need some kip. Hoping that I'll have enough energy to watch the tories getting banjaxed tomorrow evening/night
You can keep hammering 2017 as some kind of success for Labour
No I consider it to be the opposite, which is of course precisely the point I am making.
Tomorrow Labour are likely to win a massive landslide victory with possibly exactly the same level of support which they received in 2017, or even less.
And lest we forget Labour did not win the 2017 general election.
I didn't think that it was necessary to point out that Labour didn't win the 2017 general election.
If the 2017 general election had been a success for Labour then mentioning it would have added no value to the point I was making.
I was pointing out how crazy the first-past-the-post system is. I perfectly valid observation to make imo although it appears to have annoyed you. A bit like the mere mention the previous Labour leader results in a certain person going into one and throwing their toys out of their pram.
Wealth taxes? I don't think the Tories understand how few people actually have wealth these days.
A lot of the sound bites I’ve seen tonight featuring undecided voters names me wonder why they’re still undecided. Have they been asleep for 14 years/made copious cash from PPE?
I went for a ride round various villages in north Hampshire, West Berks and South Oxfordshire on Sunday. The thing that stood out to me was the prevalence of Libdem signs out on display. To put it in context these are very Tory locations with lots of accumulated wealth. It's one thing for these people not to be displaying a Tory candidates propaganda, but it would previously be bordering on treacherous to display a Libdem sign.
I do wonder if a lot of the respondents to polls saying 'undecided' are really just 'decided, but a bit ashamed' i.e. previously nailed on Tories struggling to openly admit they're placing their vote elsewhere.
I think it's reasonable to expect more metropolitan areas and some of the disillusioned 'red wall' to go labour's way, with perhaps some more showings for Reform, I do wonder if those more rural, typically Tory constituencies, might edge a bit more towards the Libdems now though, where people still haven't quite got the stomach for Labour or the Reform thugs but can trade down to small 'c' conservatism with the LDs.
How that defecting Tory vote will split down in different areas and just how honest people will be about their voting choices is the unknown factor driving those "undecided" voters.
For them the dilemma is often whether to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, or SNP.
I'm a lib dem but I'm voting labour tomorrow...
It's really a very simple flow chart depending on your local incumbent, for me it's a simple vote to get Craig Whittaker out, And Josh in.
Then next GE I'm sure we will have a much different picturre, but, priorities have to be... prioritised.
STOP PRESS
I'm Craig Whittaker and it has been an honour to represent Calder Valley as its Member of Parliament since 2010. I am not seeking re-election, so another Member of Parliament will be taking my place in Calder Valley.
This website is a record of the work I've done as an MP, but please be advised since a General Election has been called, Parliament has dissolved and there are no MPs until after Polling Day.
source: https://www.craigwhittaker.org.uk/
another Member of Parliament will be taking my place in Calder Valley.
Yeah, the'd need to be elected before they become an MP, you ****ing shyster!
Wealth taxes? I don’t think the Tories understand how few people actually have wealth these days.
Lots of folk have wealth. Plenty of room for wealth taxes - and I would be caught in any decent wealth tax. this is a rich countrey its just a minority hoard most of it.
There are a lot of people who are undecided who to vote for, even if they are certain who they are not going to vote for.
That's really quite an insightful way of framing it.
Like what else would be a success? You’re gaslighting/trolling us Ernie. FFS!
Anyway off to bed,..
Try to calm down sus. If you think that I am gaslighting/trolling you then how about trying not to react? Although going to bed is a possibly a good option.
Winning general elections is one measure of electoral success although it obviously isn't the only one.
The definition of winning a general election is getting a majority of at least one. David Cameron didn't manage to achieve that in 2010 he did however become PM, would you say that he was an electoral failure in 2010 because he didn't win the general election?
Charles Kennedy was an electorally successful leader of the Liberal Democrats, even though they did not win any general elections, because support for the LibDems grew significantly under his leadership.
The Sky News article I was referring to was suggesting that Keir Starmer was on course to become the most successful Labour leader in history.
I was challenging that because I don't believe that winning one general election represents the greatest electoral achievement a Labour leader can make.
Tony Blair won three general elections which in my opinion trumps winning one, however big the majority might be.
I cannot imagine Keir Starmer winning three general elections, and there is certainly no evidence that he will.
So the Sky News article was not using winning general elections as a gauge of being the most successful Labour leader in history.
Hence my point...... If winning a general election is what counts as success in electoral terms then Starmer will not have qualified for the accolade of greatest Labour leader in history tomorrow.
Unless of course you agree with Sky News's alternative definition of "success in electoral terms"?
Blair built on what Kinnock and Smith had done for the party… the Labour Party were in a far worse state in terms of public support (and all that means for future elections) after the 2019 election than after 1992. To go from that to possibly winning an election…? Anyway, save it for Friday, this could all still go wrong… most people are voting tomorrow… no point weighing up a win that might still end up being close… or even a loss (god no, please)… no matter what is “predicted”. Ask Kinnock.
Still no real signs of an election around here. I have had some waste paper ( election leaflets) thru the door but very few signs up and very little activity. I think there is a definite feeling of " a plague on all their houses " here
I’d have to agree with Sky
So you agree with Sky News that Starmer is on course to become tomorrow the most successful Labour leader, in electoral terms, in history, even if he doesn't win another general election?
So winning general elections is obviously not your criteria for being successful in electoral terms. If it was then Tony Blair would still have that distinction on Friday.
It is apparently the manner that a general election is won that counts.
Are you gaslighting/trolling us Kelvin?😉
Edit: So you edited and retracted your "I agree with Sky" comment Kelvin - very wise. But I'll leave my comment anyway as the gist of what you are saying remains the same.
Try to calm down sus. If you think that I am gaslighting/trolling you then how about trying not to react?
Spoken like a true gas-lighter!
Seats to watch..
Richmond, Clacton, Islington!
Will Corbyn make it over the line as an indy? Would be fun if Prime Miniature Rishi PooSack lost his seat!
even if he doesn’t win another general election?
Only you said that.
I can’t describe a win that hasn’t happened (or a loss that hasn’t)… but if Labour win a large majority tomorrow, yes that, depending on the scale, could be described as a bigger success than ‘97. In the hypothetical event of a bigger majority than in ‘97, coming from such a low point, then yes it could be described as more remarkable than when Blair lead Labour back into power in ‘97, for the reason I outlined. As for future elections, no-one knows anything.
Another pointless argument where one isn’t needed.
Well survation have updated their MRP including the data from that phone poll
And notablly reform are worryingly high
Labour: 475 (-9)
Conservative: 64 (-)
Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 13 (+3)
Reform UK: 13 (+6)
Green Party: 3 (-)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
Only you said that.
No Sky News said it.
Read the article if you are going to comment on it.
According to YouGov, Labour are set to win 431 seats, the highest number in the party's history and passing the previous peak of 419 reached by Tony Blair in 1997 - making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.
So just winning one general election at the scale suggested by YouGov will make "Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms."
According to Sky News.
I think it would be quite funny to see Corbyn elected as an indie in islington.
Clacton? well it seems Nigel Garage has 'love bombed' the locals enough to pinch it, but time will tell.
If Labour win a bigger majority than Blair did in ‘97, given where the party was after the last election, then that will be the biggest success in electoral terms for any Labour leader. In my opinion. Happy to agree with that Sky opinion piece.
And notablly reform are worryingly high
That's crap. 13 seats would give Reform UK a huge platform to launch a massive challenge in 2029.
The Survation poll seems crazy, it's hard to believe that the Tories could end up with only 64 MPs, but it is also hard to dismiss any poll by Survation based on their previous general election predictions.
Although I welcome a Tory wipeout I wouldn't want at the cost of Reform UK having to serious Parliamentary foothold.
Farage won't be able to control another 12 oddball racists if they were to get that many
What world be interesting /worrying is where the Tories end up, with just a handful of MPs they could end up all over the place and if their new leader is far right enough could see some defections to refuk
Happy to agree with that Sky opinion piece.
So winning general elections is not your only criteria for success. The manner in which they are won also counts.
Therefore a Labour leader can win just one general election and still be regarded as the the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.
A bit like Charles Kennedy was the most successful LibDem leader, in electoral terms, despite never winning a general election (or being in coalition government)
Thanks for confirming and agreeing with me that electoral success can sometimes be interpreted as more than just winning general elections. We got there in the end!
What?
Improving seat count can be seen as a success. Improving vote share can be seen as a success. Hell, in some cases losing votes and seats could be seen as a success, depending on what has gone on since the last election. All pale as conciliation prizes compared to winning an election outright and actually getting to form a majority government
EDIT: especially if that looked impossible from your starting point. Anyway, it could still be tight tomorrow, if enough people wake up assuming others will vote to remove the Tories and don’t bother.
Farage won’t be able to control another 12 oddball racists if they were to get that many
I'm not so sure about that. Presumably the Reform UK candidates in the more winnable seats are their better "quality" candidates.
And TBH Reform UK MPs won't have to do much - the limelight will still shine almost exclusively on Farage, it always does.
It could obviously increase the possibility of defections from the Tory Parliamentary rump, which would obviously swell their numbers further.
The greatest worry is that voters dissatisfied with a Labour government will turn to RUK. And depending on your faith in Keir Starmer that is a very real possibility.
Although also possible is the emergence of a new Left party. The fear of a far-right victory in 2029 could be a catalyst for that.
Contemporary politics has become very unpredictable so everything is guesswork, the old rules no longer seem to apply.
Improving seat count can be seen as a success. Improving vote share can be seen as a success.
Some people claim that 2017 was something of a success for Labour because they improved both their seat count and their share of the vote significantly.
Others claim that it was a complete failure because Labour didn't win the general election, and apparently that's the only thing that counts. Mind you the Tories didn't win that election either.
making Sir Keir the most successful Labour leader in history in electoral terms.
Is 'successful' the correct word though ?, I'd have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.
Keir Starmer doesn't exactly come across as dynamic. We've seen a greater range of emotional responses from Pinocchio.
Although I welcome a Tory wipeout I wouldn’t want at the cost of Reform UK having to serious Parliamentary foothold.
While I don't welcome any electoral success for Reform, I'm not sure how it's different to the Tories largely saying and doing the same things. The foothold Reform would get is one that factions of the Tory party already have. Do the Reds-Moggs, Francois, Bravermans and so on that we curet have add up to more than 13?
dyna-ti
Full MemberIs ‘successful’ the correct word though ?, I’d have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.
Course, that's exactly what happened with Tony Blair. History's written by the survivors
It would be a very close election if it wasn't for Garrage, labour might have just about squeaked over the line anyway with a very slim majority, but the maniacs on the extreme right are divided... for now.
So he's (nigel) a usefull idiot in the clear and present danger sense, but what happens in the term after this will be really interesting, will the tories re-group or will they reform under ther, Urmm ..reform banner?
Who knows. Hopefully they all die.
Kier certainly has his work cut out for him!
Testing
Testing
"It would be a very close election if it wasn’t for Garrage, labour might have just about squeaked over the line anyway with a very slim majority"
The latest conspiracy theory which I heard yesterday is that Starmer and Farage are allies.
Apparently that is the reason Labour are refusing to back their candidate in Clacton.
the dirty digger kinda sorta backs Starmer....
I’d have thought lucky would be a better descriptive. Lucky to be the current leader at around election time when Joe Public got to vote out the shitshow that the tories are.
Corbyn and Kinnock were leaders at election times when Tory shitshows were on full display. They failed. Blair succeeded. Starmer - we will see. It's not just luck.
I'm intrigued to see what happens locally. NE Derbyshire, and travelling around the nice villages mostly have Tory placards up, whilst the more urban areas are Labour placards.
We now have a reform candidate, which we didn't at the last election, so may split the Tory vote. But the Tory incumbents campaign has been pretty clever, basically saying that our Tory candidate Lee Rowley is a local guy knows the people etc, whilst Labour have parachuted someone in from Leicestershire.
It would be fascinating to see what the voting is like on a polling station by polling station basis.
Everyone got their bingo cards ready for tonight?
How's the weather? Rather windy here, drizzle forecast later.
Well, I've just requested that Fazzini-jnr go and vote as he's just crawled out of bed. I'll let him off as he works night shifts ?.
I reminded him that it was his democratic right to choose the candidate who he felt best represented his own interests and would best serve his future hopes and dreams, whilst also reminding him that if he voted tory or reform he'd get home at 6am to find the locks changed and his belonging on the doorstep. ?
(PS: I still have the 'fear' of the overall result ?. Just can't shake the nagging doubt...)
But the Tory incumbents campaign has been pretty clever, basically saying that our Tory candidate Lee Rowley is a local guy knows the people etc, whilst Labour have parachuted someone in from Leicestershire.
Same here (also northern end of Derbyshire).
Labour guy doesn't live here, he's from Westminster, he's one of the elite blah blah against the local "independently minded" MP (he keeps using that phrase to hide the fact that he's a Tory).
Lots of Labour posters locally, a few Reform ones in some of the surrounding fields (maybe so they can't directly be associated with a house?).
My local polling station had no-one in it at 8am when I got there (other than the three very cheerful and friendly women on the desk). Looking at the list as they checked me off, I reckon there'd been about 15-20 in before me.
Had a WhatsApp from a mate to say there were rumours that the Count Binface vote might inadvertently save Sunak. 🙁
I had to queue for a moment to vote - I don't recall that happening before. But the woman in the booth next to me appeared to be writing some sort of thesis by means of a spoiled ballot. We could do without any of that where we are - unless she'd have voted for one of the loons. There was quite the array on our ballot paper. Which worries me, as splitting the vote like that will keep the tories in! Eep.
Meanwhile, in Macclesfield... (well, Disley)
Turns out our Labour candidate is an ex-Scout at my Scout group. Before my time, but some of the other leaders remember him. Anyway, he got my vote, which is my first Labour vote in GE ever FWIW, and he has a reasonable chance of being the first non-Tory MP for Macclesfield, er, ever.
I’m leaving voting until 9pm. Just interested to see if any of the parties contact me or offer a lift to the polling station ?