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The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.
Wasn't it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?
Honestly, whilst the overall percentage will be relevant (to some) for a political mandate for the governing party, it's pretty irrelevant to where we'll be on Friday morning. I think this election will be the most heavily reliant on constituency nuance of any election in my lifetime. 4 or more parties sharing 95% of each individual constituency vote in pretty sizable slices each is going to make it so complex to model. In fact, has any polling company ever modelled anything like this before? This many parties with double digit popularity in each constituency in a FPTP system is basically unprecedented.
argee
Full Member
Think i might skip this thread for a day
I'm hoping that in a few weeks from not I'll be less likely to be reading the thread or at least reading about policy discussion rather than the absolute corruption and daily disasters the Tories have inflicted upon us.
I want a return to boring politics basically.
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
Getting 30% would be catastrophic for the Tories.
They got 3O.7% in 1997 when they were down to 165 seats.
Andrea Jenkyns was just interviewed on Radio 4.
Blah, blah, blah... supermajority... blah, blah, blah... teaching there's 70 different genders in schools... blah, blah, blah... net zero....... blah, blah, blah... woke...... ... blah, blah, blah... not harsh enough on immigration.
Basically just the usual culture war bollocks. Its literally all they've got left. The upshot was that the Tories aren't right wing enough and need to be closer to Reform That seems to be the general consensus amongst the right wing headbangers who are going to be the only ones left to in the Tory Party after tomorrow
My prediction is that after 6 months of fighting like rats in a sack, with Badanoch or Braverman as leader, a purge of anyone left who isn't completely mental, the Tory party will be Reform in all but name and there won't be a fag paper between the two of them on policy
In some good news, the BBC are reporting that very wealthy people are selling properties in anticipation of Labour raising capital gains tax
The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.
Wasn’t it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?
Was that not their MRP?, it's only a few percent either way but having reform ahead of the tories has a huge impact on seat numbers so will be interesting to see what it really looks like
I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
why can’t labour just make huge promises for change
Why should they? All they need to do to secure a huge majority is to get through today without saying anything silly.
Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%
And how has all that wealth been used?
Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?
BBC Poll Tracker shows Tories on 21% but also points out that in general polls can be 5% either side .
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
Or is that called - I actually have a job and need to do sh1t
Bullshit.
No further comment.
Care to elaborate? Does Starmer's minimal ambition and wafer thin manifesto give you any confidence that they will do anything other than the bare minimum? I'm not wholly pessimistic, I've already said they'll make a big difference in the NHS and wider public sector (more than others on here seem to think they will do), but lets be honest that's the very minimum that is expected from a labour govt. I see no real evidence that they plan to do anything else of note, because the labour machine these days is focused on one thing above everything else, and that's winning power by not making any 'unrealistic' promises.
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy. You can't have people arrested for holding some banners up... yet.
https://Twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1808459990476238876
They know they don’t have to be restricted by the nonsense ‘country like a household’ financial analogy so I’m quietly confident they’ll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.
We will see on that one.
They just have to simply make-up another set of fiscal rules. Currently using OBR for modelling in 5 years time based on subsequent expected growth is an utter disaster waiting to happen.
I'm not very confident at all and I believe they will run the country to balance.
But, it will be one thing where I would love a massive u-turn.
(Spooking markets needs to bugger off really. Country needs massive fixes - markets will understand inherently that putting government investment in place offers a real return on the ground, and follows good for people good for markets. But that way around. Asset markets have had it great for a few years with interest income. It's time they slotted back into their pecking order whilst the country rebuilds. A larger deficit is almost part and parcel of this.)
However when interest rates get cut - expect a bit of a boom but then markets will slump back due to lack of interest payments and net government drains. That won't be Labour's fault. But will be intrinsically blamed on them. I reckon that's back end of 2025. But who knows economic predictions tend to go wayward when something blows up.
Labour aren't getting growth without spending anyway so let's see where they go with that.
No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.
That is bollocks and you bloody kn........
Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy.
Mercers wife is quite a piece of shit, as is mercer to be honest.
Had one Labour leaflet through today, addressed to all three of us old enough to vote.
Had a load of assorted bumf through yesterday. Some of it for candidates in the neighbouring constituency.
I see The Scum has come out for Labour, murdoch doesnt like to back a loser
Murdoch trying to increase market share in Liverpool?
last MRP
More In Common has
Labour: 430 seats 39%
Conservatives: 126 23%
Liberal Democrats: 52 14%
Scottish National Party: 16 2%
Reform UK: 2 13% (Anderson, Farage)
Plaid Cymru: 2
Green Party: 1 6%
Other: 2 (including Corbyn)
polls have finally tightened, but depending on how big & where the Reform vote falls Tory numbers could show big differences
Well thats me done. Last (targetted) leaflets dropped, in typically Tory drizzle. Hopefully we'll be getting a Labour government tomorrow and the sun can come back out and Engerland will play better on Saturday 😀
Don't forget your ID tomorrow when you go to vote folks, if you've not done your postal vote already
Now that I really want to see 🙂
ernie in ermine?
polls have finally tightened
My only concern is if a lot of the undecided (not sure what they need to decide now, an asteroid heading for earth with Sponsored by the Conservatives emblazoned upon it?) are actually shy Tory/Reform voters.
If Tory, that's bad, if Reform then I'm ambivalent.
Basically I'm terrified to to have hope .
I'm not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher here...
I’m not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher
Careful..... we change Governments typically every 10-15 years. We haven't won anything at Football for 58 years. Would i swap a Labour government for winning the Euros.
.
.
.
.
absolutely not.
A world cup, however.... 😉
The polling has only moved a touch, but the gap between Tory and Labour is still very large. I'm trying to keep hopeful and not to expect a massive majority, but would be happy if it did transpire. The poll of polls are showing a highly likely historic/landmark win for Labour, bigger than Blair in '97. As mentioned many pages back, the main feeling will be a temporary relief rather than euphoria, but that'll do. That'll more than do.
I feel like I did as a kid on Christmas Eve. Genuinely excited. A large majority would be ace but I’ll just be pleased to see the incompetent, self serving and morally corrupt Tories out of government, even if just by one seat.
The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.
The problem with Labour is they always try and walk it in.
Just been for a walk down shops. There is a huge long row of bungalows high up on a grass bank. Not a single political poster up. Apart from one bungalow.
I hardly know the occupants apart from a few fleeting conversations over the years. Two brothers live there.
On the large bay window I see 3 small Vote Labour posters up and a small poster mentioning the actual candidate, with her picture on it.
I smile.
As I walk a little further I see that on the other side of the bay window there is another poster that's says Vote Green. I smile even more.
I'm guessing there had been a healthy political debate going on there.
... And I do mean healthy.👍😁
I'll make sure I chat to them a little more in the future.
ernie in ermine?
If the mods permanently change his username to ErmineErnie I'll throw another tenner in the pot!
Hoping for as many delicious Portillo moments as possible. Rees Mogg for starters! Oh please make it happen!
Ouch.
"Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer"
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
Good job the debate is about boring leaders rather than policy and ideas.
How the hell are you embedding x posts Binners?
My embedding just stopped. Are you doing anything other than sharing a post?
Can you share your secret?
How the hell are you embedding x posts Binners?
Again,
twitter dot com embeds, x dot com does not.
If the goal is to win votes from Richie Rich and Nigel Hitler then that’s probably a sensible approach TBF.
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
🤔
Again,
twitter dot com embeds, x dot com does not.
All-rate ... but it did until very recently from my app.
Ouch.
“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
It'd only give a shedload of ammo to Reform / Tory at the last second. They'd be all "look at Starmer, going against The Will of the People!" and that's before the likes of the Daily Wail get their headlines into it.
It’d only give a shedload of ammo to Reform / Tory at the last second. They’d be all “look at Starmer, going against The Will of the People!” and that’s before the likes of the Daily Wail get their headlines into it.
He just doesn't need to say it though. He's said enough.
“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
Well it is still a bit touch and go whether Rishi Sunak can pull this one off or not.
Although maybe Starmer has received some worrying medical advice and he is trying to break it to us slowly?
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
Pass. If I've learned anything in politics in the last decade, it's a mistake to be complacent.
This is an interesting website. In my constituency, it shows a near-equal split between Tory and Reform. If they hadn't split the vote, the Tories would be in danger of winning. The difference in 2019 between Labour and Tory was a handful of votes. So, uh, yay Nigel?
All-rate … but it did until very recently from my app.
Dunno about that, then. I don't use an app. Maybe it's rebranded itself internally?
Well this is encouraging - Opinium have probably been the pollster which have been the least generous to Labour in recent times.
https://opinium.substack.com/p/opiniums-final-poll-of-the-2024-uk
And even their worse case scenario is hugely encouraging:
Almost one in ten (8%) of 2019 Conservatives still say they don’t know how they will vote in the general election tomorrow, twice the number of 2019 Labour voters (4%). If they did return to the Conservatives at the very last moment, there could still be a narrowing of a couple of points, although this would still leave Labour with an unprecedentedly large lead in vote share.”
@monkeyboyjc - Thank you for your efforts re. your parents seeing the real Suella. Sadly, it is going to be another win for the tories but maybe she will resign, or get lost on her trip to America, anything really, anything at all.
This late in the day with this predicted lead?
Most people haven't voted yet. Predictions are worth nothing. Expect a whole load of "surrender to Brussels" nonsense online tonight. If they've dragged the yeti PM out of hiding to campaign today, it must mean they want a last day of campaigning on a "freedom from the EU" ticket.
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
He's 61. Given that he's a bit of a boozer it's probably a simple statement of fact that he won't be around if and when we ever rejoin the EU. I almost admire his self-awareness. 🙂
Yup, a decade or more before we even begin the accession process, and another decade to complete it. Anyone still thinking Brexit is a reversable process need to be told the truth. Joining the EU is so far away most of us will never see it. If “trying” a spell of being outside the EU was a thing, then us boring types who thought we could see what we were walking into wouldn’t have been so vocal against it.
Interview on local news just now with the Tory candidate for High Peak (wherever that is). She asks - I paraphrase, sorry - "are you still happy to be a Conservative candidate" and his reply is "yes, I think they're the least bad option."
👀🤷♂️
the Tory candidate for High Peak (wherever that is).
Glossop/Buxton way I think?
Most people haven’t voted yet. Predictions are worth nothing.
Why have we been debating polls for years then?
I think it's more to do with the Sun endorsing him a short while earlier.
(I'm not pushing for EU rejoin at all it's just interesting watching all the remainers roll over on to their backs an agree with whatever Starmer says.)
Yup, a decade or more before we even begin the accession process, and another decade to complete it.
I've no idea how you can timeframe that. That's one of those predictions you just said were worth nothing.
(I’m not pushing for EU rejoin at all it’s just interesting watching all the remainers roll over on to their backs an agree with whatever Starmer says.)
Even amongst the Labour faithful on here there are significant policy differences on their and my the wish list.
None of us will get everything they want, not one of us.
As for rejoining, id love us to but the population as a whole have absolutely no appetite for another lost decade of arguing and division over it. Most dont like Brexit but that's not the same as wanting to go through all that crap again.
People want the NHS fixed, housing, schooling childcare, social care... the list is huge. Even as someone that will never really come to terms with us leaving the EU I am forced to acknowledge that we won't be rejoining anytime soon. The countries mood will no doubt change over the years but now is not the time to light that stick of dynamite. It consumes all the political oxygen to the detriment of everything else.
If Labour had campaigned on holding a second referendum they would have been ripped apart in the media, hell, Reform might well have stood down in an effort to stop Brexit being overturned and I doubt we would be looking at a (potential) Labour government come Friday morning.
(I’m not pushing for EU rejoin at all it’s just interesting watching all the remainers roll over on to their backs an agree with whatever Starmer says.)
Just watched Nick Thomas-Simmons labour shadow minister without portfolio on C4, he talked a lot, said absolutely nothing - absolutely spot on interview, Starmer will throw him a bonio later..
Cathy did ask him about keeping open the option of rejoining the customs union at some point in the future (it'd be an easy 3% to 4% of immediate lift) but he ruled it out.
Yup, a decade or more before we even begin the accession process, and another decade to complete it.
absolutly no need for it to take thatlong
People want the NHS fixed, housing, schooling childcare, social care… the list is huge.
All of which will be much harder outside the EU
I was beginning to think of voting labour. That statement has hardened my resolve. I won't be. I cannot vote for brexiteers which is what labour are now.;
When in history has capitulating to right wing views and projects like brexit resulted in the right going "great we have achieved what we wanted now we will piss off and shut the **** up"?
There are more votes to be gained by not ruling out a return to the EU, than there are by chasing the racists.
Meh again, i can't see us ever rejoining the EU in my lifetime either, Brexit was built to be a one way system, and the French more than helped to make sure any u-turn would cost the UK dearly.
I can see us joining the single market, and potentially other 'solutions' that aren't fully rejoining, but that's a moving feast just now with all that's going on in Europe and Ukraine!
rone
Full Member“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”
Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?
If it weren't starmer, I'd say this is basically myth-building... Labour have spent the last X years saying "Blair made us electable" and claiming his platform was the only way to win even though it's bollocks, and now they're probably going to spend the next X years saying "Starmer got in on this platform and is the only Labour winner in a generation therefore this is the only valid platform", exactly the same.
If you're certain of winning, you can stop fighting for the victory and start to reshape what that victory means instead of just winning it. Start solidifying positions on the stuff you want to really stick and start retroactively making them key to the win. But it's Starmer so tbf that's probably overthinking it, I'm not sure he has anything he really wants to stick.
The vast majority in the country want to rejoin.
There are more votes to be gained by not ruling out a return to the EU, than there are by chasing the racists.
Can you show the research you did to establish this? Why do you think it's more accurate than the research Labour have undoubtedly done?
There are more votes to be gained by not ruling out a return to the EU, than there are by chasing the racists.
It's not about chasing the racists, it's about telling people you aren't going to put the country through years more of arguing and even more division. Most people are no where near as engaged in politics at as the people on here and they voted in large part for Boris in '19 because they were sick to death of Brexit consuming politics.
People largely seeing Brexit as a negative is not the same as them wanting to pick the scab off.
I wish it wasn't how it was but my wishes count for nothing.
I know I shouldn’t even say it, but I’ll be disappointed if the Tories are still the second largest party on Friday.
My Twitter feed, which up until last night was predominately tories trying to scare voters about how bad Labour will be, is now full-on pro Reform.
Edit - maybe Reform leased a bot-farm over night?
There are more votes to be gained by not ruling out a return to the EU, than there are by chasing the racists.
Labour have said they will go back to the table to get a better deal with the EU. Can we start with that please?!
Rejoining the EU would be great, but let's be realistic, it will not happen soon because why would the EU want us after we spurned them?
Better trading relations and maybe a Swiss or Norway style deal might come, but that will be years in the making and will require consistent government to reach that point
It’s not about chasing the racists,
Its 100% about chasing the racist vote in some conbsti9tuencies. Rationalise it all you want - thats all it is.
tjagain Full Member
The vast majority in the country want to rejoin.
I'd be very happy if we rejoined the EU.
I'd be delighted if we could just hit Ctrl-Z and go back to being in the EU.
Would I still vote for re-joining the EU knowing that it would probably be a long and arduous journey, made longer and more arduous by a constant guerrilla war fought against it by Nigel Farage, the Tory party and the right wing media and probably also by some existing EU members annoyed at us for acting like a cat who spent the last hour scratching and meowing to get let out, only to immediately want back in?
Well yes, I probably would. But I'm not sure everyone else in the country who'd like to be in the EU too would make the same call.
I am sick and tired and exhausted of living in political "interesting times". And it's not just that re-joining the EU would dominate the news for years on end and be the only political subject ever discussed. It would absolutely dominate the government's attention too.
As others have said a lot of stuff would be easier to fix if we were in the EU, but if we want to start fixing it all from the 5th of July then we don't want the government's attention locked up on EU ascension, putting a lot of everything else on pause for years instead. It's a paradox and not one that has the simple black-and-white answer you want it to have.
Would I be happier if Labour sounded less intransigent on Brexit? Hell yes. But I can see why they're concerned to show any signs of being pro EU. Northwind makes a good point that it would be good if they used their commanding lead to set the agenda rather than play it safe, but after 14 years out of office I'm not surprised that playing it safe is the approach they take, and while I'm disappointed in it I don't think it means they're demons for doing it.
Labour have said they will go back to the table to get a better deal with the EU. Can we start with that please
This is 100% a non starter - yes a bit of fiddling around the edges but the EU have moved on and will not revisit the main withdrawal agreement - they are just not going to waste time and energy on this. There is no significantly better deal available without CU and SM which involves the 4 freedoms which Starmer has ruled out.
The idea Starmer and co can negotiate a better deal is just one of their lies over brexit.
Its a binary choice - stay out of the CU and SM or rejoin
I think the EU thing is more about a mix of reality and shutting off another avenue of attack. It smacks of caution more than anything. I'm hopeful that in ruling some things out, it keeps open other pragmatic possibilities that create better relations and bespoke agreements that are almost as good as rejoining any kind of union, and would be quicker to achieve. Just a hope. I do believe labour is still pro European, but the issue of the EU is totally off limits now
Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer
Glad I voted Libdem....
I'm hoping Starmers tactic is to queitly push for allignment with SM & CU, as it's not technically being a member, as it makes a lot of sense for the UK, whilst not requireing full ascension, it makes way to restore a lot of deals and agreements.
Almost like the brexit deal that was being tabled before the scorched-earth crash-out no deal brexit we ended up with that NO ONE VOTED FOR.
Brexiteers are stupid enough to swallow that pill if it's sold to them in the correct way.
Interesting opinion piece on Starmer, Class and Labour party by Dan Evans
"Because it was birthed to manage them, the PMC has always had a contradictory attitude towards the lower orders, whom it views with a blend of romantic paternalism and contempt. Working-class people need to be saved, goes the view, to be helped by us – the experts – because they are incapable of helping themselves. This technocratic paternalism has always been latent in the Labour party through the Fabian Society, a middle-class guild that was deeply suspicious of the working class, and whose vision was of a scientific, rational socialism delivered from above."
There's a brexit thread already.
This is the election thread, it's tomorrow, no party of influence is talking about re-joining the EU.
It's a non-issue *for this thread*.