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I've just had a Tory leaflet through the door. My constituency has been continuously Labour since 1935...
I have a fear about the reality of Friday morning not being as tory-crushingly-wondrous as maybe some of us hope.
Yep, I've got this fear that it'll be "OK" - not enough for electoral wipeout or even enough to force a frantic scrabbling leadership challenge in the Tory Party, potentially "enough" that Labour get 4 years of just about beginning to fix things before the Tories come back in again.
That'd be a true disaster.
Thursday night I dont plan to stay up too late and tbh Ive been far too disappointed too often over the lats few years
I feel your pain Kimbers, but, but, I am for the first time in 8 years feeling a tiny bit optimistic that change might be happening. I regret I didn't stay up for Portillo in 97, so I am going to try and stay up and celebrate the SeeYous getting their comeuppance on Thursday night/Friday morning (and will only go to bed if i can't cope with the joy, or it becomes apparent that Putin has rigged it again). Hoping my major disappointment is MadNadz not throwing up on someone's shoes
If you really want a K, your best bet is to try to get a top job where it comes automatically. Like becoming the DPP, or a senior civil servant.
If you really want a K, your best bet is to try to get a top job where it comes automatically. Like becoming the DPP, or a senior civil servant.
Or where you make such a difference that someone feels you deserve to be nominated.
Just for balance.
Which is pretty **** insulting to my lad who went to a failing secondary but graduated last week from Cambridge and has a great graduate job lined up, while continuing to work and support the youth groups and organisations that supported him.
Has be been knighted already? Blimey!
It’s a scam, and in my experience those that succeed aren’t the hardest and smartest, they are the bullshitters, the backstabbers and the sociopaths
Just to join the chorus of calling out this bullshit. I've not done badly IMHO, I cant plead to have come from poverty although neither of my parents went to uni and growing up things always seemed tight. But I did in fact work hard, get into a good course at a good uni, moved away, got a well paying job in engineering and upwards from there.
I don't think I've stabbed anyone in the back, and don't consider myself a sociopath or to have bullshitted to get here. Just a bit of intelligence, a lot of hard work, and leveraging those to get a decent wage.
On the fear of a poor result: I do share that to an extent. But the polling average seems convincing, and even if you took Labour's worst current polling, and Tory best, and included a 5% margin of error in favour of squeezing both (a compound of unlikely scenarios), I'm pretty sure there would be pretty clear daylight in the order of 10% points between the two. Even electoral calculus high and low seat scenarios would still have a labour majority of over 150...anyone know the current 'least percentage' poll for labour and current 'best' for Tory?
EDIT: I meant to say that even a lower seat prediction for labour has a commanding majority to get things done, but it would be sad if some of the big buffoons of the tory party aren't soundly kicked out by the electorate.
what are peoples plans on election night?
Drink. Heavily. Remote job interview Friday lunchtime - que sera... 🙂
Just seen the latest poll and tactical voting options for our area. Another term of Prunella Braverman for us as LD and Lab split the vote. Between them they are currently wiping the floor with her, but we know what result that brings. I haven't had a winning vote in 20yrs, and it looks like more of the same. Would have been amazing to see her go, what a year she would have. First she wins Dick of the Year, then she gets sacked, and then she loses her seat. 2 out of 3 mean she stays on the gravy train.
Last redfield poll before GE has a bit of swing from reform back to Tory, which seems real as farage melts under scrutiny
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1808168755731878026
Tories would just about hang in as official opposition
@thisisnotaspoon I don't like speaking for other people but read what MSP was replying to. Unless you or the previous posters child have been knighted then you're not the subject of that remark.
My prediction: whatever the result nationally, Farage will win and that will be all the presenters go on about and top the rolling 5 minute news updates ad infinitum. He is news catnip.
Another term of Prunella Braverman for us as LD and Lab split the vote. Between them they are currently wiping the floor with her, but we know what result that brings.
Fareham? Damn - I was rather hoping reform would do for her. There's a good underbelly of tossers in Fareham who you'd think would lap him up. But I guess she is Reform in all but name, so that's worked in her favour. Moved out of the constituency before she came along. My parents in law are voting there and voting Tory. Typical daily mail reading, brexit voting, 'its the immigrants that have ruined the country', poorly educated, poorly read, small minded, small lives lived, glass half empty god's waiting clingons that make me proud to be British. My sympathies to you and Fareham. In a few months you'll be proud to say the leader of the opposition is your gal - that'll be quite the moment.
Probably been done but Jonathan pie has nailed it on YouTube.
Yes it's all in jest maybe
I’m going to watch the exit polls and a bit of punditry, then go to bed and hope to get up at 3am to watch all the Portillo moments live.
My bet: Tories get 150 seats, Farage-the-Fascist wins Clacton but nowhere else, turnout is good at 60%.
Or where you make such a difference that someone feels you deserve to be nominated.
Just for balance.
That is your second best bet.
Well my predictions look like all being wrong so I am carrying on my tradition of being useless at predictions. I thought the polls would narrow and that reform would step down to help the tories. Neither have happened
I will be delighted if the To0ries do get a tiny ( comparatively) number of seats but I fear that this will just cement in the labour party collective mind that they have to be right wing to win - whereas its obvious to me this is a tory loss not a labour win. Ho hum.
I do think Starmer will be a competent PM - I just wish he hadn't surrounded himself with such a right wing bunch and was less timid
@convert - You have the situation nailed to a tee. Reform have actually sneaked up a bit on Lib Dems over the last week but won't be a threat, quite amazing how your in-laws appear to be exactly the people that surround us in Fareham. Really racist, vote Reform, only a little bit racist unless drunk, vote Suella.
Quick edit: I didn't mean to sugest your in-laws were racist, they probably arent, but it appears a lot here are.
Quick edit: I didn’t mean to sugest your in-laws were racist, they probably arent, but it appears a lot here are.
Well, drinking would be admitting some joy into their lives so obviously not going to happen......but mildly racist when their guard's down would be pretty accurate.
@thisisnotaspoon Pff, facts are not welcome here. (seriously though I read it that he was talking about the idea that a normal person working hard can be knighted creates a false impression that some "haven't worked enough" and as such don't feel valued. Those that have achieved that, in his experience, are the backstabbers he refers to.)
@msp?
Good takedown of Labours so called private investment to drive growth, certainly a better explanation of why it is a terrible policy than I managed a few weeks back
Labour is putting its plans for Britain in the hands of private finance. It could end badly from the Guardian, Daniela Gabor is professor of economics and macrofinance at UWE Bristol
Well last Survation MRP is pretty nuts
Personally not convinced tories will do that badly and reform that well
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
Good takedown of Labours so called private investment to drive growth, certainly a better explanation of why it is a terrible policy than I managed a few weeks back
As the C4 documentary showed, no-one is investing in the UK at the moment because of Brexit and the fact that we've had a zombie Government for the last 8 years. Result is catastrophic under-investment, crumbling services and infrastructure and the need for more investment - which is not forthcoming.
That’s what I’m “feart” of, that we are so far down the hole that Labour will allow anything and anyone in to drag us back up
There's some proper drama queens on here, Labour haven't even spent a minute in power, let alone won a majority, and folk are going on about their theoretical failures in government already 🤣
@crazy-legs - everyone needs to watch the channel 4 documentary on how the world really works and on how the whole nature of how this country is viewed, and so the subsequent investment changes literally overnight on Friday morning. The grown ups are back in charge, not a bunch of dogmatic, Nationalist populist clowns
This really is essential viewing
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/skint-the-truth-about-britains-economy
The ranges on that survation MRP are mad
Ed Davey is almost 50/50 LOTO
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1808204833171857896
Ione thing to bear is that about 20-25% votes have already been cast via post, so even the small amount of tightening we've seen lately will not be a factor for them. And they'll have been done closer to Dday and betting scandal headlines!
My prediction: whatever the result nationally, Farage will win and that will be all the presenters go on about and top the rolling 5 minute news updates ad infinitum. He is news catnip.
I predict that is going to happen even if he loses. Just don't get the obsession with him that the UK media seems to have.
turnout is good at 60%.
My other prediction is that it will be much lower than it, around 39-40% because a lot of the ever increasing number of "I don't do politics" potential voters won't turn out because "it won't make any difference, anyway"
I used to work with a lot like this and it really frustrated me. They'd then spend the rest of the time whinging on about how the government were a waste of space.
I hope I'm wrong in both my predictions but fear I may not be.
Not surprisingly the Labour lead is reducing in the last couple of days of the election campaign.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2-july-2024/
It's probably worth pointing out that Redfield and Wilton have consistently been one of the more generous pollsters towards Labour.
Not surprisingly the Labour lead is reducing in the last couple of days of the election campaign.
was posted earlier by Kimbers - labour % is just about holding up, and the lead's only reducing as Reform vote softens.
Election night drinking game- shot for every cabinet member deposed.
Piss off, I need to drive Saturday lunchtime.
was posted earlier by Kimbers – labour % is just about holding up, and the lead’s only reducing as Reform vote softens.
I didn't see kimbers post but according to Redfield and Wilton:
Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister
That's only 1% more than Labour got in the 2017 general election although probably enough for a comfortable majority.
It's good news for the Tories if they are clawing back votes from Reform UK, how much support they lose to RUK will determine the scale of their defeat.
And whilst I would be ecstatic to see the Tories wiped out on Thursday my greatest concern now is with regards to the 2029 general election.
We know for certain that the outcome of Thursday's general election will be that Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister, there is no doubt of that imo, but what worries me most is that it might leave RUK in a strong enough position to be a threat in 2029.
All the focus now should be on 2029 and not providing RUK with the opportunity to present itself as an alternative to Labour.
I didn’t see kimbers post but according to Redfield and Wilton:
Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister
I guess the difference is this is a 4 horse race this time, with RUK and LD polling decent %. When i said holding up I meant within touching distance of their last poll which was based on surveys done 26-27th June (Lab = 42, Con = 19, RUK = 18, LD = 11), and pretty much similar to polls before that 21-24th June (Lab = 42, Con = 18, RUK = 19, LD = 12), 19-20th June (42, 18, 19, 11) and 14-17th June. (43, 18, 18, 12)
At that attrition rate it would take months for it to become close again, ergo just about holding up.
Of course, if there's panic tomorrow at the 'threat' of a large majority, who knows but it's not happened yet.
Quote". I haven’t had a winning vote in 20yrs," unquote.
Is that unusual at all? I started voting in 1983 had no winning vote until 1999 when I voted for Dennis Canavan in the Scottish parliamentary election. No more wins till 2007 then quite a few in succession all in the Scottish parliament. However if we stick to UK General Elections then I had no wins from 1983-2015, 32 years
Fareham? Damn – I was rather hoping reform would do for her.
They are doing their bit but could try a little harder. Come on Reform pull your finger out.
Election night drinking game- shot for every cabinet member deposed.
Sadly I have a funeral on Friday. and no, it’s not for the Conservative Party. So will need to drive. And I expect that following that game would preclude morning driving. It may even preclude Saturday driving 🫣
Plans for election night?
Long-standing booking to see Nils Frahm at The Sage (Glasshouse) in Gateshead so...vote, 2.5 hrs drive north, eat, go to gig, check phone for exit poll prediction when I leave, drive 2.5 hrs south; may go to count as CLP member but Newark not due until after 3am so will possibly (probably?) watch/listen to beeb.
We've got quite a selection of candidates in Newark - Lab, tory, LD, 2 different flavours of independents, Green, Reform (racist), English Democrat (even more racist), george galloway's mob.
Disappointing that the Monster Raving Loony party haven't put up a candidate.
In other news...Kim Wilde backs Count Binface in election thingy.
Long-standing booking to see Nils Frahm at The Sage (Glasshouse) in Gateshead
in a “life of Brian voice” You lucky lucky bastard.
Oh great my Friday is looking fun... not only do I have to drop my son at school at 7am for a school trip as it turns out the bike shed will be locked then
But I've now agreed to go into London & meet my mother- in-law off the train at Euston so she can get to Waterloo by bus
But I’ve now agreed to go into London & meet my mother- in-law off the train at Euston so she can get to Waterloo by bus
Bus?!
It's only 6 stops (10-15 mins) on the Northern line (via Charing Cross branch).
Sorry, off topic.
Bloody Starmer eh?
😉
@somafunk - always loved live music but just got out of the habit so...am now getting back into it - in my usual mad and unstructured way.
In the past 11 days - from home in Newark which is something of a music desert - Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets at the Sage/Glasshouse, Mavis Staples at the Union Chapel, Kaiser Chiefs and Gregory Porter both at Lincoln Castle.
Wanted to see Madness at Lincoln Castle but...didn't happen.
Yes, it's mad; unsustainable and expensive.
Max Richter is touring later this year so that's a possibility, Thea Gilmore in Nottingham is a must, David Gilmore at the RAH but ticket prices are £££££.
It's all eclectic but...my money, my choices.
Are D:ream touring anytime soon?
Are D:ream touring anytime soon?
Nah, i think the Brian Cox reunion was a one off special for Glastonbury
Hania Rani is playing on the 17th see tour dates here , also check out Kessoncoda on the same Gondwana record label/website
Her new album below, if you enjoy nils frahm you’ll love Hania
apologies for hijack, I’m providing an essential musical service
Fareham - really disappointed that Labour & Libdem locally cannot stitch this up. It appears eminently feasible, particularly as Reform have a growing share. Hard to believe there are people who believe Cruella is not nasty enough - but there you go. Depressing to find myself in this constituency- end of road is in Winchester, in which my wife and I once decided last minute to vote for Libdem, Mark Oaten. Him then winning by 2 votes was a really odd feeling.
@frankconway I'm Newark too - all the decent gigs seem to be in Nottingham.
Anyway, are you voting tactically to get Robert Jenrick out? I think it's going to be close, so my Labour vote and my boss' Reform vote will both help.
My election night plans...
I'll be in a field in Staffordshire from Thursday at a festival, toasting the Tory downfall with Bob Vylan, Dub Pistols and tons of techno/drum & bass. Seems as good a place as any...I'll be watching what I can on my phone through the early hours of Friday.
Back to prediction of turnout. 39-40% would be historically lowest in recent times by a big margin, and would feel much less democratic so I hope not.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050929/voter-turnout-in-the-uk/
I think its likely to be a poor turnout because of the lack of enthusiasm for labour. Both Tory and Labour voters will stay at home. But see how well my previous predictions have gone 🙂
There’s some proper drama queens on here, Labour haven’t even spent a minute in power, let alone won a majority, and folk are going on about their theoretical failures in government already 🤣
+1 and said it pages back
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.
Country gets: communism.... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/labour-inheritance-tax-policy-redistribute-family-money-lea/
Country wants: genuinely right of centre party to replace fake conservatives.
Country gets: communism…. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/labour-inheritance-tax-policy-redistribute-family-money-lea//blockquote >
Did you accidentally link to the wrong article?
Personally I am in favour of inheritance taxation. Inheritance is one of the main drivers of inequality. I say this even tho in my nice cosy middle class family there is a fair bit of money to inherit - simply because we all bought houses when they were affordable. My nephews are going to be the main benificiaries.
I would use inheritance taxation to provide old age care for everyone
Vox Pops piece from Tamworth on R4 just now.....
We debate and discuss here using actual words, links to articles - sometimes the odd fact. You listen to podcasts of passionate, informed and cognisant debate. Then you hear a vox pops like that and you appreciate that for the overwhelming majority, regardless of which way they might vote, their thought processes and reasoning are so banal and their knowledge and understanding is at such a simplistic level it's all for nothing. One man talking about how it's time to get rid of the clowns in charge in London - and his reason - the rubbish on the path he was stood on whilst getting interviewed. A woman interviewed who wasn't sure which way to vote, but then she'd come across some facebook advert from the local tory candidate - so he must care more about the community that the rest of them so she was going to vote for him. A woman interviewed who said she couldn't vote for Labour because she didn't like Starmer because...."he was clearly after power". No shit.
The best thing about democracy is we all get a say. The worst thing about democracy is we all get a say - and half of us are below average intelligence.
Heard that. One of them voting Tory because none of the other parties would really change anything. “They’re all the same”. I mean, fine, but how does voting Tory get you whatever change you’re seeking?
I would try and stay away from that level of hyperbole,
Not good advice for someone who is trolling though is it. Have you not noticed they never, ever follow up on any of the shit they post and post stuff that is obviously going to get the stw audience going. Most manage to ignore them for what they are though.
So I reckon the Tories are gonna get 150 seats
no it’s gonna be 95 seats
Yeah no, I’ve got no idea 😂🤦🏻♂️
I’m gonna stay up Thursday as long as I can, bloody meeting on Fridays though, fortunately it’s on zoom 👍
That Tamworth vox pop was just a huge facepalm moment.
I bemoan campaign strategists of all stripes for three word slogans, dumbing down and outright obvious lies - then things like that make me realise the mean average they are playing to.
Whoever posted a few pages back about NHS patient info being dumbed down to the reading age of a 7/8 year old ("your tummy") had it right.
Election night plans - packing the van for a two week holiday and ferry in the morning...but I may need to stay up as late as I dare, or even early and get up for the news...
I am genuinely bemused by Reform looking like 20% of UK electorate will vote for them.
I am bemused by 16% predicted to vote for the random candidate thrown forward by Reform in our area of Scotland. At least he is local I suppose.
https://www.pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000105
🤷♂️
I see Cruella has emerged from her self-imposed 6 week exile and fired the starting pistol on her leadership bid. From the Guardian this morning..,
Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.
The critics will cite Boris [Johnson], Liz [Truss], Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.
The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.
We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”
There you go folks. It’s all because the Tories were too ‘woke’. Yes Sue Ellen, that’s the only reasonable conclusion anyone could reach
One of them voting Tory because none of the other parties would really change anything. “They’re all the same”. I mean, fine, but how does voting Tory get you whatever change you’re seeking?
I think a lot of it is people who are actually Tories but don't want to admit it.
I know of someone who will say he doesn't like the Tories, but then voted for them in 2005, 2010 and 2015 because he 'couldn't vote for Labour because of the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan'*.
So surely he voted for a Labour party with a firmly anti-war leader in 2017 and 2019? Heavens no! Tory again. He 'can't stand the Tories', but has voted for them 5 times in a row, over 14 years. With enemies like that, who needs friends?
* He was in a combat role in the UK military at the time! I don't know what he thought he would be doing when he signed up!
I see electoral calculus are sticking to their guns. They predict a 310 seat majority with lab getting 470 seats and the libs as official opposition in 71, ten seats ahead of the tories.
If that is what we wake up to in Friday I'll be gob smacked. Would be nice though.
If that is what we wake up to in Friday I’ll be gob smacked. Would be nice though.
Indeed. I just don't see it happening mind.
The true irony if it did happen would be the libdems, who have campaigned all my life for PR, getting a lift PR would never afford them. And the tories being shafted by FPTP.
I'll be waking up on Crete on Friday morning having travelled there on Thursday (postal votes are sent although it was close given how late they arrived). Im hoping for a good Friday, sun, sand, sangria and Starmer.
PS fully agree with TJ on inheritance tax, also as someone who stands to inherit (can see it skipping a generation and going straight to my kids) it is a massive cause of wealth inequality given current house prices. I'd also happily see all assets get used for care, why should someone inherit if the older person needs care they are unwilling to provide?
what are peoples plans on election night?
I'm at a Burger Festival with a really good English/Spanish Band 🙂
Wow that Video about the labour Taxs - by the people who sat back and watched the energy prices rocket and pretty much did nothing, then they did something so their leech owning mates got paid.
Wow the intelli-sense on that one for 'leccy' was actually spot on 🙂
My parents in law are voting there and voting Tory. Typical daily mail reading, brexit voting, ‘its the immigrants that have ruined the country’, poorly educated, poorly read, small minded, small lives lived, glass half empty god’s waiting clingons that make me proud to be British.
My Parents are also in Fareham, and have voted conservative in the past. Neither read the daily mail (torygraph or times), both are well read, but both are heavily influenced by the community in Fareham. My mum has always said in the past that SB is a 'very good local MP' - however my Mum was also totally unaware of SB's voting record, until I showed it to her. Neither will be voting conservative this year (or reform).
Whoever posted a few pages back about NHS patient info being dumbed down to the reading age of a 7/8 year old (“your tummy”) had it right.
I finished university and have had GI surgery. I still don't know the difference between "stomach", "intestines" "colon", "guts", "belly", "abdomen", and "tummy". But everybody understands "tummy". Do you want people to understand or not?
What's wrong with using more simple language anyway? Is "stool" that much better than "poo"? Why?
I don't agree with all of this politico-intellectual snobbery against people with lower rates of formal literacy, especially when it comes to their health.