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So a whistleblower claims the US has actual UFO parts and even complete "vehicles".
The natural sceptic in me says this is clearly fantasist bollox....thoughts?
Bollox, bet he has a book coming out
Yeah most likely. I'm with the people who say the chances of advanced civilisations developing are almost infinitesimally small, and the chances of them overlapping with uneven smaller, and the chances of them coming here even smaller again....so, yeah, bollox
Erm… just in case it’s true….i for one welcome our reptilian overlords!
I'm sure there are aliens out there, but I suspect faster than light travel is not going to be practically possible, so we probably will never meet them.
It’s impossible to keep anything of this scale secret in the modern era. Evidence would’ve been leaked and posted on Reddit by now.
There are millions of ways in which life on a planet could develop, most would probably not end up in space exploration. There are also thousands of species on earth, only one of which cares about this stuff (the rest could happily carry on without us).
We probably look at this from the point of view of space explorers thinking if we've done it so could anything else. Add in galactic timescales, in which we as a civilization are a microblip, then the maths will tell you how vanishingly tiny the chances of co-existing are.
If alien life arrived on this planet, the chances of it only being known by NASA in the Space Age is laughable.
Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Yeah most likely. I’m with the people who say the chances of advanced civilisations developing are almost infinitesimally small, and the chances of them overlapping with uneven smaller, and the chances of them coming here even smaller again
TBH, the most thorough study i've seen says that the existence of dozens, or even hundreds of advanced civilisations existing, or having existed, or likely to exist, is almost a dead certainty. The universe is a really really really big place.
The rest is accurate, they're unlikely to exist at the same point in time, or even within striking distance of earth, or even any other advanced civilisations. If you can even call humanity advanced. Or civilised.
Tomorrow, Suella will be releasing plans to deport them all to Mars, just as soon as they get here.
Seems a bit shortsighted, all those extra arms should be excellent for fruit picking.
It's OK, if we are visited by aliens, Braverman has the answer.
There are millions of ways in which life on a planet could develop, most would probably not end up in space exploration. There are also thousands of species on earth, only one of which cares about this stuff (the rest could happily carry on without us).
We probably look at this from the point of view of space explorers thinking if we’ve done it so could anything else. Add in galactic timescales, in which we as a civilization are a microblip, then the maths will tell you how vanishingly tiny the chances of co-existing are.
If alien life arrived on this planet, the chances of it only being known by NASA in the Space Age is laughable.
Take it all with a pinch of salt.
He said with a Richard Burton accent
Drake equations and the Fermi [paradox
Myself I believe the zoo hypothesis - that there is an advanced civilization out there and they know about us but are waiting for us to "grow up / become civilised" before they reveal themselves
It’s impossible to keep anything of this scale secret in the modern era. Evidence would’ve been leaked and posted on Reddit by now.
And been roundly mocked and not taken seriously.
Makes you think.
Myself I believe the zoo hypothesis – that there is an advanced civilization out there and they know about us but are waiting for us to “grow up / become civilised” before they reveal themselves
Why do all alien civilisations act as one? Is space travel strictly regulated so that only the planetary government (and it is always one whole-planet government) can do it?
I subscribe to the Douglas Adams 'Teaser' hypothesis:
“Teasers are usually rich kids with nothing to do. They cruise around looking for planets that haven’t made interstellar contact yet and buzz them.” “Buzz them?” Arthur began to feel that Ford was enjoying making life difficult for him. “Yeah,” said Ford, “they buzz them. They find some isolated spot with very few people around, then land right by some poor unsuspecting soul whom no one’s ever going to believe and then strut up and down in front of him wearing silly antennas on their head and making beep beep noises.”
I do like the Douglas Adams one 🙂
There are millions of ways in which life on a planet could develop
I thought that wasn't actually the case and that the way life can develop is actually more limited than you might expect?
Don't the basic ingredients give you hugely variable possibilities but nevertheless not in realms of millions?
Why do all alien civilisations act as one?
I actually know the answer to this, I think. It's analogous to seafaring in Earth history, where empires and countries would rule cities or ports, which were the places people went. The empires or states are equivalent to races, and their planets are like cities. Although in Star Wars it's more directly analogous to the Wild West where you'd travel to a town and find the thing you were looking for. When Luke goes to find Yoda in The Empire Strikes Back he goes to 'the Degobah system' to look for someone. In an entire star system. And somehow he finds him straight away. Even if you knew the planet, and it was developed that would be a monumental task - imagine landing on Earth randomly from another planet and going 'right, I'm looking for Steve Roberts, where can I find him?'
"infinite" as we simply do not know everything.
Someone worked out a series of chemical reactions based on significantly different chemicals to that which earth based life uses ie silica based or ammonia based. There is also the potential of supercooled helium, crystals and magnetic fields. We have no idea how many ways of life under which conditions could arise.
TBH, the most thorough study i’ve seen says that the existence of dozens, or even hundreds of advanced civilisations existing, or having existed, or likely to exist, is almost a dead certainty. The universe is a really really really big place.
Sorry I should have added "within reach of us" (even allowing for faster than light travel....)
I'm trying to find the Brian Cox view of it (no, not that Brian Cox), it seemed well argued.
TBH, the most thorough study i’ve seen says that the existence of dozens, or even hundreds of advanced civilisations existing, or having existed, or likely to exist, is almost a dead certainty. The universe is a really really really big place.
... is the right answer, really.
The chances of us being the only populated planet in the universe is vanishingly small, because big numbers. It's a near certainty. The chances of a flying saucer crash-landing in Nevada is even less likely, because big numbers.
Consider all the grains of sand on Earth. What do you suppose the odds are that one of them is a particular Pantone shade of blue? Reasonably likely? Great, now go find it.
significantly different chemicals to that which earth based life uses ie silica based or ammonia based.
But different chemicals can't exist according to our physics....
I thought that wasn’t actually the case and that the way life can develop is actually more limited than you might expect?
This is true, in my understanding also. Life is hard to define, but if you consider it as organisms that will intrinsically self replicate by consuming resources from their environment, then you need matter that can store complex information and make complex shapes and substances from simple atoms. Due to the characteristics of the periodic table there is basically only one atom that can do this easily - carbon - which we know is very common and widespread in the universe. It's so good at creating complex structures that it has an entire branch of chemistry devoted to its study which is as big as the rest of chemistry combined. We know that atoms are going to be the same everywhere so other planets with liquid water are quite likely to have the same setup as we have with cells and membranes and all. They'd need something to perform the function of DNA, but it might not be actual DNA.
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one. But still…
But different chemicals can’t exist according to our physics….
Misunderstanding - earth life is carbon based - almost all earth life is based around a carbon cycle . There are other potential cycles for the energy exchange needed for life ammonia based or silica based are two oft quoted examples but plenty of other possibilities as well
Due to the characteristics of the periodic table there is basically only one atom that can do this easily – carbon – which we know is very common and widespread in the universe.
Ammonia and Silica can do this as well or low temp life using helium base etc etc
Where are all the complex silicon based polymers on Earth?
Silicones, but how common are they compared to carbon based?
Somewhere between 100 and 400 billion stars, just in the milky way, and we're already discovering "earth like" planets just in the little bit of it that we can see with any sort of detail (which is really not that much).
And that's one of 20 odd galaxies in the local group.
Then they estimate somewhere between 100 and 200 billion galaxies in the observable universe.
There's probably a dozen duplicate STW websites across the universe right now. All arguing about the best tyres for wet roots, and wondering why they can't index their gears.
It fascinates me TBH, the whole astronomy thing.
And which tyres for wet roots. Indexing i can do in my sleep...
Thats no reason why it could not work. Its a workable cycle that has been suggested
Ammonia and Silica can do this as well or low temp life using helium base etc etc
Think ammonia was the most probable, with others several orders of magnitude less likely.
Thats no reason why it could not work. Its a workable cycle that has been suggested
But nature isn't going to create all possibilities just for the hell of it - the simplest and most effective method based on the most abundant ingredients is the one that will prevail.
silica is highly abundant. So are the nitrates for an ammonia cycle
Silicon is highly abundant on Earth and yet we don't see much complex silicone chemistry here. Why is that, and why might that be different on another planet?
EDIT I'm no chemist, but the Wikipedia article says that silicon is more electropositive than carbon, which would mean it's more likely to end up bound in ionic solids i.e crystals which means minerals here on Earth. Which is what we see.
There are lots of carbonates too, but aren't they more likely to be water soluble and hence water is more likely to have carbonate ions floating around in it than silicate? I can't think of water soluble silicate compounds?
in an infinite universe the improbable becomes certain
If you can even call humanity advanced.
We must be, we think digital watches are really cool technology…
I love sitting looking up at the night's sky.... That is until I have this feeling of pointlessness and what's the point.... Just one dot amongst millions.
Space is bigger than anything I can comprehend.... We're just here floating about at random. All these stars, galaxies.....
And yet I still have to deal with letters from the tax office.
It's bollox
We must be, we think digital watches are really cool technology…
Well, we think they're a pretty neat idea.
That is until I have this feeling of pointlessness and what’s the point
Whatever you want it to be.
The night sky is actually the normal everyday universe, it just gets obscured by a blue glow when we get spun around to face our local star.
Also - Alpin, check this out. Those are all galaxies. That's what's out there, in a tiny piece of the sky.
@tjagain the Universe is finite.
the Universe is finite.
That's the sort of bold unsubstantiated claim that starts religions.
Well you know there was a big bang, right? Where everything started at a point and then started expanding outwards? That was a finite amount of time ago. Therefore, the universe must be finite, in that model.
Where everything started at a point
I didn't think there was a "point', I thought the Big Bang created space and time?
If beyond the universe there is no space and time doesn't that mean there is nothing other than the universe, therefore the universe has no edge and is therefore infinite?
No, things can be finite and have no edges. Look down, you're standing on one such thing. The surface of the Earth (2D) is finite but unbounded because its curved in the third dimension. Space might be curved in a fourth dimension.
But the surface of the Earth has an edge.
The earth has an edge in three dimensions, or rather a boundary. But the surface of the earth does not have an edge.
I love sitting looking up at the night’s sky…. That is until I have this feeling of pointlessness and what’s the point…. Just one dot amongst millions.
I find that concept immediately relaxes me.
everything started at a point and then started expanding outwards?
Into what?
It's expanding. Not expanding into anything per se, the distance between parts of the universe increases.
This is worth a read for those discussing whether the universe is finite or not….
Also we don’t know what was there before the Big Bang and for how long. It could have been there eternally. We know the universe was very dense at the point of the Big Bang but we don’t know for how long it was sitting there getting hotter and hotter and denser and denser.
Isn’t it just a human emotion for us to want a starting point. I understand knowing the 13.8 billion years is important mathematically, but there’s also the fact that we need to think of this as the start of the origins of the universe.
There is a theory that suggests that if a civilisation of sufficient technological advancement in our galaxy could make replicating unmanned probes that can travel to exo-planet they suspect or theorise has the building block available so that the self-replicating probe can re-manufacture itself, and then repeat the process just twice over, that the entire galaxy can be colonised by those probes in something like 29 replications, and it takes 'just' millions of years. Given how long the galaxy has been around, there could well be a civilisation that is sufficiency advanced. the downside with the theory is that the galaxy should be over-run with machines.
Perhaps it is?
Where everything started at a point and then started expanding outwards?
But no one knows how big the "point" was.
No tape measures back then, see.
anything coming from Mars are a million to one
but million to one chances happen 9 times out of 10?!
Given how long the galaxy has been around
Not as long as you think, in practical terms. The chances of life evolving aren't the same throughout that period. The universe was originally made of hydrogen, which formed stars. But all the other heavier elements are made in those stars, and have to be redistributed about the galaxy in supernova explosions. This stuff can then coalesce to form second generation star systems that include a variety of elements that can evolve into life and spaceships. That process obviously takes a long time - much of which is taken by simply stuff cooling down enough to become solid and support suitable environments for evolution, and then as we know life evolving enough to make spaceships takes a long time too. There's a chance that we are actually among the earliest galactic generations to be sitting here thinking about this stuff. Maybe in another 500m years the skies will be full of aliens zipping about.
I'd like to know why this UFO stuff is so secretive. It's always the US military who's got these details and hiding them... why? Trying to learn about them for military purposes? Don't want others to get this juicy technology? But why hide their existence altogether?
Doesn't make much sense to me. Also, it's always the USA. Do aliens not visit any other country?
Do they always crash near military bases? Or do the men in black just rock up and threaten everyone when the aliens land near civilians?
Aliens are often seen near Bonnybridge in central Scotland
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/falkirk-triangle-ufo-hot-spot-26419860
much of which is taken by simply stuff cooling down enough to become solid and support suitable environments for evolution
Again - we simply do not know this. A very solar centric view. 🙂 Who is to say that plasma annot create a life form? Same as very low temps ie helium2
The chances of us being the only populated planet in the universe is vanishingly small, because big numbers. It’s a near certainty. The chances of a flying saucer crash-landing in Nevada is even less likely, because big numbers.
I liked the scenario Brain Cox made - it went something like 'imagine two people standing in a vast open space and each shooting a bullet in a random direction at a random time and expecting the bullets to hit each other'.
Again – we simply do not know this. A very solar centric view. 🙂 Who is to say that plasma annot create a life form
I went to a lecture on this when I was at 6th form college and asked all these questions. The response was that whilst theoretically alternatives are possible, they are vanishingly unlikely based on what we know about what life needs to be, which is already pretty rare.
I liked the scenario Brain Cox made – it went something like ‘imagine two people standing in a vast open space and each shooting a bullet in a random direction at a random time and expecting the bullets to hit each other’.
Well yes and no. IF (and it's a huge if) much faster than light travel is even possible, aliens wouldn't just start firing probes or ships in random directions. They'd be systematic about it. But even then, the results depend on how likely life is and how far apart intelligent civilisations are likely to be. The radio signals that give us away are only about 60-70Ly out into space currently, which isn't very far. People are looking for potential life on other planets by scanning the spectra of light received from star systems. We can detect the presence of certain organic molecules, so those are the ones you'd be going for. You can do this within a radius of a few thousand light years but that's still a lot of stars.
The video game Elite Dangerous is played in a shared simulation of the Milky Way, with the same number and distribution of stars and types, and it's modelled as accurately as current science allows. You can jump between stars in about a minute ish on average if you jump constantly; it takes maybe 20 minutes to scan and map a system if you do it thoroughly. The longest jump range of a ship is about 50-60Ly, so flying flat out you can do about that, 50Ly a minute. It takes something like 8-10 hours of flying to cross the galaxy (which isn't long, although it feels like it when playing). It's been online since 2015 and at any given time there are about 3-4,000 people playing it. Despite the ease with which you can travel across the galaxy, only about 0.04% of the star systems have been explored. The sheer number of stars in the galaxy is incredible. Considering that in real life it would take us 20 years or something to get to the nearest star instead of a minute, that puts the scale of the challenge into perspective.
Again - in an infinite universe the unlikely is certain.( and the big brains are divided over the infinite or not)
There is no way we can know this stuff.
"there are more things in heaven and earth than dreamt of in your philosophy"
The response was that whilst theoretically alternatives are possible, they are vanishingly unlikely based on what we know about what life needs to be, which is already pretty rare.
the good thing about an infinite ( or at least bloody large, depending on which science/religion you follow) universe is that, chances are, there is more than one on account of the vastness of the possibilities available.
just because its a small chance doesnt mean there isnt a chance. i refer you to my previous terry pratchett reference haha!
There is no way we can know this stuff.
“there are more things in heaven and earth than dreamt of in your philosophy”
Er yea, good job scientists don't just dream stuff up isn't it? Not sure where you're going with that argument. We know that the alternatives are extremely unlikely, so yeah.
Well yes and no.
I know it was a massively simplistic explanation, but it does start to make normal people able to grasp the massive unlikeliness of us finding alien life / alien life finding us in the vastness of the universe over the entire lifespan of its existence.
I'd love what Grusch says to be true, but when I read anything fantastical now I just automatically assume it's a dead cat strategy to bury some other news.
Not sure where you’re going with that argument. We know that the alternatives are extremely unlikely, so yeah.
the point is that unlikely is not the same as not possible and as above in an infinite ( or near infinite) universe everything no matter how unlikely will have happened at some point in time.
the other point is that we are only able to see things from our own point of view. take plasma based life - its inconceivable to us but that is because of our limitations. Would we even recognise it? Or slow life based on supercooled helium?
the point is that unlikely is not the same as not possible
Obviously
the other point is that we are only able to see things from our own point of view
No, we're really not. Loads of thought has been done on these subjects and not just by you 🙂
take plasma based life – its inconceivable to us but that is because of our limitations
It's not inconceivable, just unknown at this current time. Science allows us to describe things rigorously rather than simply imagining them or otherwise. Start by defining 'life'.
If the universe is finite, what's on the other side?
The idea of it being infinite is beyond most people's comprehension, we like to know that things are contained. To that extent I believe the univers is finite, but had no edges, its like a donut and just keeps looping rounf on itself, however on the other side of the multivers it begins and ends at the sky's edge and all the water in the oceans falls off the edge of the world and the stars are just lights painted on the ceiling.
Back to UAP's, whys is this such a big thing in the USA, as opposed to the rest of the world?
No, we’re really not. Loads of thought has been done on these subjects and not just by you 🙂
Molgrips - you are missing my point. Of course we can only see things from our point of view - we cannot imagine the unimaginable.
Of course loads of big brains have thought about this but no one can escape their limitations and no one can imagine all possibilities as the possibilities are infinite
the other point is that we are only able to see things from our own point of view
No, we’re really not. Loads of thought has been done on these subjects and not just by you 🙂
How many Martians have you asked? Our point of view is the only one we have.
Back to UAP’s, whys is this such a big thing in the USA, as opposed to the rest of the world?
Because despite not having any idea at all how an alien lifeform from another planet might have evolved and developed the one thing we can be sure of is that they will be drawn to 1.867% of our planet's surface which makes up the United States of America.
I love sitting looking up at the night’s sky…. That is until I have this feeling of pointlessness and what’s the point…. Just one dot amongst millions.
This is a good vid on how very very small our little planet is in comparison.
the one thing we can be sure of is that they will be drawn to 1.867% of our planet’s surface which makes up the United States of America.
... the least densely populated parts.
That always used to make me laugh about Star Trek (and most other sci-fi for that matter). They'll go to Rigel IV or whatever and interact with the population, seemingly making things [better|worse] globally. IT'S A PLANET! Imagine aliens coming here and landing at random in a poorer part of Africa. "We visited Earth, very technologically backward planet, they don't even have basic supplies of clean drinking water or effective sanitation."
no one can imagine all possibilities as the possibilities are infinite
No, I disagree. There are only so many elements on the periodic table. There are only so many states of matter. Undoubtedly there are things we don't know about and haven't thought of - but infinite? I'm going with no.
Flip it the other way - thinking on how big and vast the universe is - the thought that we could be the only sentient life out there is, I think, quite terrifying.
Back to UAP’s, whys is this such a big thing in the USA, as opposed to the rest of the world?
It comes and goes in different countries. We certainly had a wave for a while. Its big in the USA right now since for whatever reason the military are releasing quite a lot of information (I think because a UFO nut or two got into fairly senior political positions and so put pressure on them).
In terms of the wider world. Cant find it right now but there is an interesting theory about how people fit unknown things into different categories. So in the past they had ghosts and minor gods and now we use aliens instead.
the thought that we could be the only sentient life out there is, I think, quite terrifying.
Really?
I subscribe to the idea that anyone visiting us currently is not some galactic federation or imperial terraforming concern - we are too insignificant and undeveloped for that; but bored wealthy tourists, political refugees (MIB), or big game hunters (Predator) come here for their own amusement
Bit of a pet obsession of mine. Not saying I'm convinced of little green men etc, but the military reports of UAPs are very interesting, given how these objects appear to defy the laws of physics as we know them - no obvious form of propulsion, ability to change direction at will, ability to change altitude in the blink of an eye from virtually ground level to stratospheric in an instant etc.
Superb eye witness report here from about as credible person as you could ask for. All he does is describe his experience rather than speculate that it's "aliens"
given how these objects appear to defy the laws of physics as we know them – no obvious form of propulsion, ability to change direction at will, ability to change altitude in the blink of an eye from virtually ground level to stratospheric in an instant etc.
how would a cold war era jet fighter appear to a WW1 airman who was born before powered flight was invented?