[Closed] Trident submarines without the missiles

we will keep trident and they will build Successor as its the only reason we keep a permanent seat on the un security council.

Haven't read the rest of the thread, but this nails it...

Jambo that might be something to do with the fact ive been serving on the things for 16 years LOL

If Corbyn had said I'm scrapping Trident and nuclear weapons and will invest the X billions in NHS, education, infrastructure etc etc it would I feel have been attractive to the voters. And would I think have won votes. But the current proposal has all the costs and none of the benefits and as such is unconvincing and I think a vote loser.

Haven't read the rest of the thread, but this nails it...

myth, it has nothing to do with Weapons, they are the victors of WW2, that's it and TBH it's completely undemocratic and pointless anyway, as any of the members has a veto, so it's achieved...pretty much nothing.

Vxrob agreed, mentions punching above our weight

Which is precisely why nuclear non-proliferation has been the worst policy adopted since WW2. If all the countries that have been fighting each other since then had been given nuclear weapons, we'd have had world peace for the past 60 years.

Yeh...but...were a proper grown up country that would never use its military for unsavoury purposes.

jam bo - Member

Haven't read the rest of the thread, but this nails it...

Does it? We have our permanent seat as a victor of ww2, and we obtained it while owning no nuclear weapons. No permanent member has ever been added or removed since and the existing permanent members jealously guard that, preventing expansion or modernisation at all costs (arguably the greatest threat to the institution) And plainly being a nuclear power doesn't grant you a seat. It's commonly claimed that disarming would lose us this seat but there doesn't seem to be any substance to the claim, or any methodology for this to happen.

But leaving that aside, why do we care? It gains us a veto that we've used not once in the last 20 years. Germany, India, Brazil etc all want fairer representation but they inexplicably survive without being permanent members.

Trident submarines without the missiles

Does that mean we can turn it into tourists attraction?

Northwind - Member
We do employ a lot of white elephant handlers, breeders and feeders but do we really believe it'd be impossible for them to do anything else?

Never been to Barrow I take it?

vxrob - Member

Jambo that might be something to do with the fact ive been serving on the things for 16 years LOL

*goes looking for 3 month gaps in vxrob's posting history*

legend ive been on a v boat LOL

Does that mean we can turn it into tourists attraction?

They commonly are when the peace campers get a bit lairy.

Dunno what the attraction is, they're dark, cramped and smell of seamen. (Don't step in the prawn crackers)

The idea that we could spend Billions building successor, and then not actually arm it is a nonsense - I'm sure even Corbyn understands this.

Ironically the current V-boats do have limited multi-role capability, however rumour has it that successor will be stripped back to only serve one purpose.

The vote to replace the V-boats will go through, the industry is working away on Successor as if the order had already been placed.

the industry is working away on Successor as if the order had already been placed.

You mean the orders that have already been placed to carry out design work?

It's funny because the idea of having submarines but not arming them simply highlights the absurdity of the entire nuclear weapons issue. The simple point is that we don't need them. Aside from the fact that were they ever to be used then they've failed in their primary purpose, there is pretty much no scenario in which the UK would use a nuclear weapon independently of it's allies. So even in terms of deterrence, there's no reason to have an independent capability.

Corbyn needs to be very careful with this. The majority of people who are opposed to Trident are opposed to it because of the crazy amount of money spent on it in a time of austerity, not because they are primarily morally against nuclear weapons. If Corbyn continues with this idea he could see a lot of his support dissolve. In any case I'm pretty sure it's a political manoeuvre to keep the unions in check in the short term whilst he can mobilise his support to deliver the policy he really wants.

the industry is working away on Successor as if the order had already been placed.

You mean the orders that have already been placed to carry out design work?

Yep - they're spending a lot of money designing something that might not even get built!

Either have nukes or dont but dont have the subs without nukes. That is like buying a bike and not bothering to get wheels
Pointless and expensive

freeagent - MemberYep - they're spending a lot of money designing something that might not even get built!

Well of course they are, the lead times are far too long to sit and wait for the final decision and Chain Reaction Submarines hasn't opened yet.

dazh - Member
The simple point is that we don't need them.

Know more than the security services?

Aside from the fact that were they ever to be used then they've failed in their primary purpose

Primary purpose is 'deterrent', difficult to tell exactly who/what they have deterred over the years - but we're all still here so they might be doing a cracking job!

[quote=dazh ]It's funny because the idea of having submarines but not arming them simply highlights the absurdity of the entire nuclear weapons issue. The simple point is that we don't need them. Aside from the fact that were they ever to be used then they've failed in their primary purpose

No, it really doesn't. I understand how this is a difficult concept, but their primary purpose is to assure that they will never be used - if we don't have them then it opens up the possibility of a situation where they might be used if we had them, which wouldn't happen if we did have them...

(which is always assuming that there is such a real threat to us - something I'm not convinced by, but that doesn't mean you can dismiss the argument for them in the way you're trying to).

[quote=freeagent ]Yep - they're spending a lot of money designing something that might not even get built!

Much like lots of other defence stuff - and I'm not even referring to big headline cancellations like TSR2. All sorts of stuff goes to a design concept stage before decisions are made on whether to progress, I've been involved in some where there was nothing wrong with the design and no failings elsewhere but the decision was simply made not to progress with the project.

As for Corbyn's Vanguard replacement without Trident replacement idea - it has to be about the daftest thing he's come out with yet - and despite not being a JC hater, I have to say that isn't a very short list. It marks a significant point to me - it's the point when I'll finally admit what most people have been saying, that he has no hope of ever even contesting a GE if this is the sort of idea he comes out with - it's not that it's a bad idea, but that he's completely missed the point.

difficult to tell exactly who/what they have deterred over the years - but we're all still here so they might be doing a cracking job!

Most think these weapons, at the height of the cold war, came very close to making MAD* a reality

* Mutual Assured Destruction

I understand how this is a difficult concept, but their primary purpose is to assure that they will never be used - if we don't have them then it opens up the possibility of a situation where they might be used if we had them, which wouldn't happen if we did have them...

Yes, I fully understand deterrence theory, and don't necessarily disagree with it. My point though was that we don't need to maintain an independent deterrent. If we accept for argument sake that a deterrent is necessary, then within NATO we only need one capability, not 3, and it could be managed on a much smaller and cheaper scale, and the money we save could be redirected to the other much greater existential threat of climate change.

Estimates of the cost of four new ballistic missile subs vary wildly, with some sources suggesting circa £30bn, others are attempting to account for the inevitable bloat that comes with these huge projects and put the cost at nearer £50bn.

Also it is worth remembering that all of our previous, decommissioned nuclear boats are sitting in Devonport awaiting disposal - the MOD has yet to decide on how it will get rid of the contaminated reactors.

This means that the cost of safe decommissioning of our ex-nuclear sub fleet has yet to be accounted for.

Given that the rest of Europe (France excepted) has thus far managed to evade nuclear attack from the Soviet Union, China or North Korea, you'd forgive me for thinking that our Trident programme is a massive white elephant.

Indeed, given the choice between splashing out on four ballistic missile subs or spending the money feeding people on low incomes or having a rail service we can afford then I'm all for scrapping Trident.

However, replacing the subs like for like but arming them with conventional weapons is utterly ridiculous IMHO.

@dazh That would only work if NATO as a central organisation held both the fundraising power and the keys. As it is (and rightly so in a democracy) national governments retain these, so the 'one capability' argument cannot apply, since America could potentially decide to 'sit the next one out' at any time.

Given that the rest of Europe (France excepted) has thus far managed to evade nuclear attack from the Soviet Union, China or North Korea, you'd forgive me for thinking that our Trident programme is a massive white elephant.

Well, one could argue that the Ukraine WAS invaded by Russia. Ukraine had previously given up its nuclear weapons unilaterally.

The thing is, though. Suppose the Ukraine DID did still have its nukes? Would it have used them? Obviously not - Russia would simply have destroyed them through massively overpowering force.

The UK nuclear force is roughly equivalent in terms of firepower to what Ukraine had.

So, yes, a completely white elephant.

Rachel

allthegear - Member
A Trident submarine is only good at one job; finding somewhere to hang out and then being extraordinarily quiet and unobserved until told it has to go play with the special fireworks.

It isn't capable of any other role. It's not fast, it's not particularly nimble, nothing a multi-role submarine needs to be.

To make the Replacement so would increase the cost many, many times.

Rachel

That's completely untrue. The Vanguard class boats were so expensive as they were designed to do everything. They're fast, agile, very quite and well armed. They were designed to evade the enemy until their payload was required and, once launched, proceed to hunt and kill other submarines.

The successor program isn't like that, they're supposed to be an SLBM launch platform only.

My apologies - I assumed Vanguard was largely the same as Successor

so the 'one capability' argument cannot apply, since America could potentially decide to 'sit the next one out' at any time.

I'm sorry but that's just a silly argument made up to support us replacing Trident. Are you really suggesting that the US would sit on the sidelines if the UK was attacked by nukes? Aside from the fact they're duty-bound by the NATO treaty to become involved, it's completely ludicrous to think that could ever happen. As for the politics of it, there are plenty of examples where national governments have transferred power to an international body, why not also with deploying nuclear weapons?

Also, and I don't know if it has already been mentioned, but the major adnavtage of the Astute class (attack subs as most are referring to them as) is their ability to insert and recover Special Forces and then support them with close in fire support in the form of cruise missiles.

Given our maritime commitment and the impending arrival of the carrier (to which at least 1 submarine may be permanently assigned as escort) the requirement for the already reduced Astute class will be higher, but repurposing Successor for the same role as Astute (but with more Tomohawks, like the SSGNs of the USN) is just stupid.

allthegear - Member
My apologies - I assumed Vanguard was largely the same as Successor

No need to apologise, Rach; I was just elucidating.

Aside from the fact they're duty-bound by the NATO treaty to become involved

They didn't exactly rush to our aid in the Falklands. America operates in it's own interests and that's it, I wouldn't rely on them for anything treaty or no treaty.

They didn't exactly rush to our aid in the Falklands.

An Argentinian ship pulling up in Port Stanley is not exactly the same as London being vapourised is it? Interesting that the antis are often accused of pie-in-the-sky naivety when a lot of the pro arguments are even more ridiculous.

The US tacitly supported British forces operating from Ascension Island, were do you think the (free) fuel came from to enable Victor/Vulcan missions in the South Atlantic?

Also, the Americans supplied the then brand new AIM-9L missile to the Royal Navy, giving Sea Harrier pilots a major tactical advantage.

Estimates of the cost of four new ballistic missile subs vary wildly, with some sources suggesting circa £30bn, others are attempting to account for the inevitable bloat that comes with these huge projects and put the cost at nearer £50bn.

It is easy to include/exclude various factors to suit your aims when costing these projects.
They are always costed low initially in order to get the green light.

However part of the increased costs recently announced during the strategic defence review were due to extending the life of the current Trident force.
HMS Vanguard is currently being refurbished, and it is possible they may need to do as many as 3 in order to keep continuity while successor comes on-line.

The V-class boats are only fuelled for approx. 15 years, Vanguard is approaching 30 years old and will be refuelled for another 15 years.

The Astute class is the first UK submarine which was fuelled for life - Successor will be the same.

Are you really suggesting that the US would sit on the sidelines if the UK was attacked by nukes?

There's a very significant chance that they would sit on the sidelines if, for example, Russian forces rolled west into Poland, were met with fierce NATO opossition, and resorted to CW or tactical nuclear to clear the way. Resultant civilian losses would be unprecedented, this remains the classic 'escalation' scenario

Aside from the fact they're duty-bound by the NATO treaty to become involved, it's completely ludicrous to think that could ever happen.

As for the politics of it, there are plenty of examples where national governments have transferred power to an international body, why not also with deploying nuclear weapons?

There's a very significant chance that they would sit on the sidelines if, for example, Russian forces rolled west into Poland, were met with fierce NATO opossition, and resorted to CW or tactical nuclear to clear the way

so you are saying that nuclear deterrent doesnt work then?

No, I'm saying it has worked as well as it has precisely because French and UK independent control of nuclear weapons have tied the US in to the outcome.

I like it!
A military which can get by with nothing but strong language and bad thoughts. We can have fast jets with no bombs, destroyers incapable of destroying, attack helicopters with no weapons system (but are really good at flying around). Perhaps sack all front line troops and just keep the support functions going? I mean the chefs will need logistics to deliver their food and the logistics people will need feeding right?

@Wrecker - We could give all the tanks pink paint shells too. Much safer than this DU stuff.

There's a very significant chance that they would sit on the sidelines if, for example

And you guys accuse us lefties of hating the US! So you're arguing that the US would be content to allow the Russians to take over Western Europe? It's like the cold war never happened 🙂

you think that the military should retain absolute command and control over the use of nuclear weapons?

Where did I say that?

@Wrecker - We could give all the tanks pink paint shells too. Much safer than this DU stuff.

so you are saying that nuclear deterrent doesnt work then?

He is correct if anyone use a nuke the deterrent has failed.

No, I'm saying it has worked as well as it has precisely because French and UK independent control of nuclear weapons have tied the US in to the outcome.

There's a very significant chance that the UK and France would sit on the sidelines if, for example, Russian forces rolled west into Poland, were met with fierce NATO opossition, and resorted to CW or tactical nuclear to clear the way

Also the point is it works not because they will use it but because the other side does not know if they will or they wont at the exact point it needs to be used by any definition it has failed as a deterrent

So you're arguing that the US would be content to allow the Russians to take over Western Europe?

If they felt that it was the best way to avoid a strike on the US mainland, absolutely they would.

TBH - I think we would too, if say Poland was invaded we’d protest strongly but not go nuclear over it - I’m sure of that.

Rachel

, I'm saying it has worked as well as it has precisely because French and UK independent control of nuclear weapons have tied the US in to the outcome.

Please explain as that does not make sense !

If they felt that it was the best way to avoid a strike on the US mainland, absolutely they would.

The period between 1945-1990 would suggest otherwise.

- I think we would too, if say Poland was invaded we’d protest strongly but not go nuclear over it - I’m sure of that.

So having a nuclear deterrent IS pointless

Russia has no qualms about taking the Crimea or Eastern Ukraine

Maybe they are going to replace the missile tubes with wheelie bins full of shit.

If that is the case it would probably be best to hire these guys and spend the money saved on the NHS.

double trouble

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/19/russia.comment ]Soviet threat was a myth[/url]

It is worth remembering also that there's been a huge botch-job involving our carrier force; you know, the one that's intended to protect the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands.

The lessons learned from the Cold War and Falklands conflict resulted in the recommendation that the Royal Navy should have two carriers in the 65,000 ton class capable of carrying 36-40 aircraft each.

Costs ballooned, capabilities were trimmed and we went with the cheapest option - equipping both carriers with ski-jumps and STOVL jets at the expense of range, payload and most importantly long range AWACS capability as Hawkeye type aircraft require a catapult to launch. Then the Tories/Liberals binned the entire Harrier fleet in 2010.

One of the very few sensible decisions from the 2010 Defence Review was to equip one or both the new carriers with EMALS catapults and opt for F-35C jets and a carrier-borne AWACS platform. Had the F-35 become a giant white elephant (coughs) for example, we could have bought Super Hornets or Rafales and inter-operated US Navy / Marine Nationale jets.

But quibbling over a few million pounds more for fitting EMALS saw the reversal of this decision, so the only two options available are either to rebuy the Harriers we sold the US at a huge discount and retrain pilots to fly them, or to hope that the wildly expensive F-35B somehow delivers on it's design promises.

[quote=dazh ]Are you really suggesting that the US would sit on the sidelines if the UK was attacked by nukes?

It doesn't really matter what anybody here thinks - the question is whether those who might be put off by the deterrent think the US would sit on the sidelines. The interesting thing is that it's the very arguments put forwards by those against nuclear weapons which might lead them to think the US would stay out of it - would the US think "hang on, what's the point in turning that lot into a desert when it won't stop them doing what they've already done, and would just result in them turning us into a desert". It's not at all simple.

[quote=Junkyard ]Also the point is it works not because they will use it but because the other side does not know if they will or they wont at the exact point it needs to be used by any definition it has failed as a deterrent

Almost - the other side has to have some realistic expectation that they would be used, rather than simply not knowing. Otherwise you'll get somebody mad enough* to take the chance.

* I [b]did not[/b] mention Putin

the question is whether those who might be put off by the deterrent think the US would sit on the sidelines.

As I said before, I understand the game theory stuff about deterrence, you don't need to repeat it all here. The question rather is how to maintain a minimum level of deterrence. Some of us are suggesting that if it's required at all, a nuclear deterrant could still be maintained without the UK renewing Trident.

Here's an idea, why not place a single nuclear warhead in each major city of the US, Western Europe, China and Russia. Then give all countries involved a failsafe mechanism of detonating every bomb. Deterrence would be achieved with only a couple of hundred bombs and a bit of fancy telecommunications technology. Same result, and much cheaper and simpler 🙂

Maybe we could still have the missiles and just put no nuclear in them?
More jobs saved!

[quote=dazh ]As I said before, I understand the game theory stuff about deterrence, you don't need to repeat it all here. The question rather is how to maintain a minimum level of deterrence. Some of us are suggesting that if it's required at all, a nuclear deterrant could still be maintained without the UK renewing Trident.

Sure, but some people on here don't - and I'm assuming you don't mean an alternative independent deterrent, as nobody seems to be suggesting that, in which case one argument against that serving the same purpose as an independent deterrent is the game theory one. You can't negate the game theory arguments by pointing out that you understand them, and if (as also previously) you make an argument against having an independent nuclear deterrent which game theory can be used to refute, then expect the game theory to be mentioned even if you disagree with it.

As I mentioned before, I'm unconvinced of the need for our independent nuclear deterrent on the basis that there isn't a credible threat which it can be used to deter, but many people seem to be using different arguments against it (ie that it's useless even if there is a credible threat), which I don't believe are credible.

The biggest problem with conventional ICBMs and SLBMs is that you cannot tell what sort of warhead is fitted without waiting for the boom. You fire one of those at somebody and they will have to assume they are being nuked. Cruise missiles are more cost effective and generally less prone to "misinterpretation"

Most of the cost associated with the programme is down to the subs and missiles, not the warheads so it still costs lots, just not quite as much.

This is just Corbyn realising that one of his policies will cost lots of jobs (not what Labour should be doing) and he's trying to cover that up rather than grow a spine and stick to his beliefs. As time goes on, he's becoming less the honest man (even if you think he is misguided) and more the slippery politician.

Cruise missiles also carry nuclear warheads

[quote=grumpysculler ]This is just Corbyn realising that one of his policies will cost lots of jobs (not what Labour should be doing) and he's trying to cover that up rather than grow a spine and stick to his beliefs. As time goes on, he's becoming less the honest man (even if you think he is misguided) and more the slippery politician.

Good point - we seem to have drifted from discussing him being a useless numpty onto the far less interesting topic of whether we should have an independent nuclear deterrent. I'm still amazed at the complete lack of thought in this announcement - and more to the point that he's presumably taken no advice (or ignored any he's been given). Personally I'm still undecided which way I'd vote if I got a vote on Trident replacement, but if I had 2 options and one of them was this I'd vote for the alternative.

he's becoming less the honest man (even if you think he is misguided) and more the slippery politician.

He could have also mentioned that part of the review would be looking at ways to secure existing jobs without the huge associated costs of Trident.

[quote=AlexSimon ]Really? Being completely clear and truthful about the reasons for doing something = slippery?Not slippery then, just foolish and incompetent. Which quality is more of a handicap for a potential Prime Minister?

Personally I'm still undecided which way I'd vote if I got a vote on Trident replacement, but if I had 2 options and one of them was this I'd vote for the alternative.

Not slippery then, just foolish and incompetent. Which quality is more of a handicap for a potential Prime Minister?

would America come to our aid in the next war?

Joined WW1 1917
Joined WW2 Dec 41

It could be argued that they were a tad late as the kick off was 1939 and WW1 ended in 1918.

And for clarity it was way after these dates that they actual took action.

Just for balance, best to look at facts rather than making it up. All those that say we don't need our deterent. Are you absolutely sure in this world of geopolitics. China expansion, North Korea, Iran, Russia invasion of Ukraine and. Crimea. To name a few.

Remember under NATO an attack on one is an attack on all. We deployed troops to the Baltic states last year, the trip wire. We could be dragged into another conflict? Turkey shoots down Russian plane, Russia retaliates. Wars have begun that way.

US did all it could to stay out of WW2 in particular. They ignored Japan until Dec 7. The whole "just rely on someone else" argument is deeply flawed. Alliances are about sides sharing responsibilites and having mutual shared interests.

Corbyn's stance is largely pointless and self harming as I don't see the upcoming Trident vote being "no" not least as it will still be official Labour Party policy, all this will happen before the Scottish elections when the SNP will beat Labour senseless over it including pointing out the leader has no respect or authority in his own party.

Yup agree, self interest would be a large factor and I wouldn't blame them for putting themselves first. I guess those that that think such an alliance would be a good idea with someone like Donal Trump consider him a sane rational politician and are forgetting such alliances are reciprocal! So should the US be involved in a conflict we'd have to support them or by being in the alliance a target. Remember Cuba? No threat to the UK but we were on full nuclear alert.

I believe the Asian Pacific rim is most likely scenario for conflict. China building islands and expanding its national sea borders. Conflict with Japan over islands. Over flights by US bombers. NZ and Australia closely linked to the UK. People have a limited view of where the threat lies. Who'd have guessed an assassination in the Balkans would ignite a world war

Time to check our alliances in that area.

Remember Cuba? No threat to the UK but we were on full nuclear alert.

Getting silly now. All this discussion of potential UK-US cooperation, who would support whom etc in the event of a nuclear ware is missing one vital point. In the event of a nuclear war, the UK and US will exist only in the imaginations of a few politicians and civil servants living out their lives in a concrete bunker. Does anyone seriously think that the US or the UK could stay out of a nuclear war involving one of the other? Bonkers!

US did all it could to stay out of WW2 in particular. They ignored Japan until Dec 7. The whole "just rely on someone else" argument is deeply flawed. Alliances are about sides sharing responsibilites and having mutual shared interests.

What you have shown is that its nonsensical to compare one set of circumstances with another completely unrelated circumstances and try to draw conclusions.

I imagine everyone, but you , knew this though.

Alliances are about sides sharing responsibilites and having mutual shared interests.

I'm sure the US could quite easily stay out of a nuclear war involving the UK, if the alternatives were to do nothing and carry on, or to strike back and have parts of the US reduced to dust in return. Which is hardly an implausible scenario if we accept the possibility of nuclear war. I see nothing inevitable about the US choosing to make things worse for the US.

What was the NATO of either war that compelled the US to act?

Funny isn't it considering the furore whipped up at the mere suggestion that the UK could leave NATO. Now it would appear the North Atlantic Treaty is not worth the paper it's written on. Corbyn seems to be winning the argument. 🙂

we all can but the point remains that the deterrent fails ONLY when someone uses nukes so, by their argument, this event can never happen because the deterrent is so powerful.

If we want to rely on a deterrent it really does not matter who provides it it only matters that the other side cannot take the risk that they will respond.

The point I was making that should there be a limited conflict in some region like the Pacific a reciprocal alliance would put us in the firing line. Made all the more dangerous by potential Presidents like Donal Trump, hardly a dove. This is destabilising and increases tension around the world. It does not follow that there would global thermo nuclear war.

Yes I would support staying out of a conflict between US and China over Tiawan as would Russia and France I suspect.
True were straying off the point.

Could you remind me of the treaties they had signed and the organisations they were a member of that compelled them to act? What was the NATO of either war that compelled the US to act?

A bit of a mute point as Countries often break treaties to suit their own means.

Look at the Appeasement of the Germans in the 1930's.

I'm sure the US could quite easily stay out of a nuclear war involving the UK,

You seem to be forgetting that deterrence game theory says that if one side launches, all the others will launch too in fear that their arsenals will be wiped out before they get a chance to wreak their genocidal revenge (or 'defend themselves' as it's euphemistically put). If the US can simply stand aside and remain neutral, then deterrence doesn't really work does it?

I'm interested though how you think this scenario could play out. Care to elaborate?

A bit of a mute point as Countries often break treaties to suit their own means

I can do this in crayon if you got lost at the hard bits ...ok last one.

It could not be more relevant to the point being made as the scenario pre WW1 or WW2 with America is very different from what we have now with NATO etc.

Look at the Appeasement of the Germans in the 1930's.

[quote=Junkyard ]we all can but the point remains that the deterrent fails ONLY when someone uses nukes so, by their argument, this event can never happen because the deterrent is so powerful.
If we want to rely on a deterrent it really does not matter who provides it it only matters that the other side cannot take the risk that they will respond.

What if there is no deterrent? Then nothing has failed if nukes get used. I've outlined a scenario where in the absence of a deterrent independent of the US, the US isn't directly attacked - in that case the nukes of the aggressor act as a deterrent against the US using theirs. As I already wrote, I don't feel terribly confident about the US acting against their own self interests - and I can believe it plausible that any potential aggressor against the UK would use the same logic. It's certainly not a totally inconceivable scenario.

JY so what is the penalty when the US don't come to our aid as per these treaties you are relying on ? We the UK will then be part of (say) Russia or wiped out ? Breach of contract is all going to be a bit redundant.

As interesting as this argument is here its not going to play out well on the doorstep and in any case by 2020 GE we will have voted to renew Trident (this year) and Corbyn will be long gone.

What if there is no deterrent? Then nothing has failed if nukes get used.

It's certainly not a totally inconceivable scenario.

Nothing is technically inconceivable apart from Jamby being wrong.

[quote=dazh ]You seem to be forgetting that deterrence game theory says that if one side launches, all the others will launch too in fear that their arsenals will be wiped out before they get a chance to wreak their genocidal revenge

Only if you don't get any indication that the missiles are coming your way after the launch - which isn't the case. Though the US policy was changed on this in any case, so they wouldn't be launching just because there are some missiles in the air
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1997_11-12/pdd

If the US can simply stand aside and remain neutral, then deterrence doesn't really work does it?

Congratulations, you've just worked out the issue with not having an independent deterrent.

It's certainly not a totally inconceivable scenario.

Yes, it is. You don't think a nuke-free UK having one or more of it's cities vapourised by Russia or China might raise a few eyebrows in Washington? I suppose all those generals - who of course historically have always been doves 🙂 - would be saying to the president, 'Don't worry sir, they wouldn't dare attack us, lets just sit tight and see what happens'. Like I said, bonkers!

JY so what is the penalty when the US don't come to our aid as per these treaties you are relying on ?

Your original point was so risible even you chose to not try and defend it ...as close to a win as one can get with you eh.

forgetting that deterrence game theory says that if one side launches, all the others will launch too in fear that their arsenals will be wiped out before they get a chance to wreak their genocidal revenge

That's why we moved to sticking them at the bottom of the ocean as a second strike capability. second strike is inherent to MAD doctrine as it removes any point in a decapitation strike.

no one really knows who would have launched against them with regards submarine based ICBMs. If we launch againt Russia, could be france or USA for all they know so who do they respond against ? As a result it would be pretty tough for the septics to sit it out as they are going to be targeted regardless.

you've just worked out the issue with not having an independent deterrent.

Its really obvious that if nukes are a deterrent and we have a nuclear strike then they failed as a deterrent.

Its not even worth arguing about it just is.