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I can't help but think that a weak response to planes/ drones/ cyber attacks over (or in) Europe isn't the safe way forward, it's the dangerous one.
Time to acknowledge that Russia has been at war with Europe for many years now and look at where we are now?
I'm actually a bit of a pacifist but surely the best use of a military is to deter an aggressor rather than fight them once a hot war has begun
Let's face it, war is here, hybrid warfare is just the new "phoney war" before the storm.
Importantly the storm can still be stopped and I can't help but think that Poland has the right idea.
I think we should cover them with red spray paint. It’s really dangerous apparently, and will really piss Putin off
I think we should cover them with red spray paint. It’s really dangerous apparently, and will really piss Putin off
Ooh good shout. Declare russia a terrorist organisation, then arrest them.
Sorted.
I don't actually know what the best solution is but, what i don't quite understand is how russia thinks it will go well for them, they can barely manage a single country being defended by conscripts and volunteers. Pushing it to far and bringing in active retaliation from any of the richer countries would surely see them fail miserably.
I also don't imagine that he's particularly popular at this point in a population thats seeing family members die for not much in ukraine. At some point i assume a tipping point will be reached.
I don't like the idea of escalating conflict, but yes, I think European nations at least need to respond in kind. If possible force the planes to land under escort and then charge a hefty "storage" fee if Putin wants them back.
Oslo and Copenhagen airports were recently shut down by drones, almost certainly Russian or Russia adjacent operations, something needs to be done as they're not just going to stop of their own accord.
They’re probing us, like the T-Rexs in Jurassic Park: checking out the electric fence, looking for the weak spots. They’ll be looking to find out where our air defences are, what radars are used, what ECM‘s employed. It’s a discovery exercise on a practical and diplomatic level.
They send their worst aircraft because they’re disposable, i bet they’re ancient, pensionable pilots ‘cause they’re disposable too - experienced so they don’t muck up, but essentially human robots. They wouldn’t mind a few be shot down. Nobody one wants a Mig31. It’s too heavy, thirsty, shows up on radar like a flying 5 bedroom bungalow covered in tin foil. Its only advantage is ludicrous speed so it can clear off and they can say “we definitely weren’t there!”
It’s all a test.
Personally, I’d drag the Russian ambassador to each European nation in front of their respective prime minister and tell them in no uncertain terms that if it happens again, they will be shot down, without warning. Then expel a dozen diplomatic staff.
Russians like to scare you Think they’ve instilled respect in you by doing so. Stand up to them and they’ll put the guns back in the bag they brought to work to show you.
Also, what the flinking blip are we doing allowing tankers to use the Denmark straight to export Russian oil?
I’m more worried that we’ve booked our M&S delivery for Christmas and there’s good chance a cyber attack will mean beans on toast for Christmas.
We are far too reliant on computers.
The cynic in me wonders if he is looking for that low level escalation to fuel favour with his allies / make capital at home / legitimise his "defensive activities".
Bringing drones down is perhaps less sensitive than human piloted aircraft and of course where the wreckage ends up is another concern from a population safety perspective.
There's no need. There's no one senior in the Russian military that doesn't understand that [combined] the NATO forces are many times more capable than their own. (even more so now after 3 years of attrition in Ukraine) If talking planes specifically, there's no doubt that some of the newer Russian aircraft could hold their own against US or European aircraft individually, but they have no answer to our satellite deconfliction control systems, EWACS capability and SEAD capability. Russia would loose an air war in days. And these days, that's the end of that.
These excursions don't concern me as it's more 'classic' cold war stuff that's obvious and visible. Concerns me even less given their current 'special military operation' where we can see their war machine isn't the threat we perhaps once thought.
I'm more concerned with what we didn't see or haven't confirmed, the shadowy stuff funding the wrong people, cyber attacks, bot farms etc
Cold War cat & mouse? Twas ever thus.
Probing, testing, intercepting; it's all part of a game of posturing.
It's a game of two halves.
Yes, we can shoot them down and we've reportedly told Russia that we will, FAFO
The article is paywalled, but you'll find it on Yahoo and referred to elsewhere,
Europeans Privately Tell Russia They're Ready to Shoot Down Jets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/europeans-privately-tell-russia-they-re-ready-to-shoot-down-jets
But will we and should we, which is the point of the post. This piece might help and was published yesterday by Minna Alander, Associate Fellow, Chatham House | Non-resident Fellow, CEPA | Senior Fellow, Frivärld
There is some irony in having drummed the slogan “Russia only understands strength” (and I am guilty as charged), hoping to get Western Europeans to understand that appeasement doesn’t work – and succeeding beyond any expectations. The result is currently a very heated public debate in Europe demanding stronger measures against Russian air space violations: not only escorting the intruders out, but shooting them down. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/to-shoot-or-not-to-shoot-down-russian
@timba interesting article thanks. Especially the explanation as to why it's dangerous to compare current events with Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter in 2015. These things are always way more nuanced and complex when you take a closer look. I'm old enough to remember Lightnings and Phantoms being scrambled to intercept Russian "Bear" bombers, heading towards UK airspace on a regular basis during the cold war. And Russian spy ships, disguised as fishing trawlers being escorted out of British waters by the Royal Navy. The tempo might have dropped, but this has never stopped. It's what the Russians do. We (NATO members and UK in particular) are experienced at dealing with it appropriately, without turning the heat up unnecessarily. Let's not suddenly forget all that.
Is there a less lethal alternative, something like a taser for planes? Or maybe we need a fast moving blimp with a big net to catch the jets and then impound them (unless the pilot has a passport).
Like that, but bigger
Except for the last 200 or so years the Russians have proved they can absorb heavy losses - especially by drawing from the far eastern regions, not sure us comfortable europeans can anymore. And then there's those nukes all 6000 of them.
Let's all try to stay calm.
I'm fairly convinced that Poland is clean out of patience and that they are fully prepared to go kinetic the next time a Russia fighter so much and sticks a nose cone into their air space.
Poland's deputy PM was pretty unequivocal at the UN this week, a short speech and worth a watch IMHO
They wouldn’t mind a few be shot down.
It may even feed a propaganda war at home -,we have to protect ourselves from evil NATO. But I personally think Trump was right (not often you’ll hear me say that) to publicly suggest EU countries / NATO should shoot them down. Saying it and doing it are slightly different - but I also think we should sanction any country that buys their oil etc!
Except for the last 200 or so years the Russians have proved they can absorb heavy losses - especially by drawing from the far eastern regions, not sure us comfortable europeans can anymore.
Nor can Russia anymore, they have a demographic time bomb ticking which the war with Ukraine is exacerbating. There is a theory that the reason Russia is being so aggressive and expansionist now, is because it's their last chance before their population shrinks and ages too much to do it in future.
Some extracts from this article. The article itself goes into a lot more detail and is well worth a read.
"Russia’s future will be characterized by a smaller population. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has virtually guaranteed that for generations to come, Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated. It will almost certainly be ethnically less Russian and more religiously diverse. While some might view diversity as a strength, many Russians do not see it this way".
"The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population".
"United Nations scenarios project Russia’s population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world’s population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent".
Russia wouldn’t be doing what it is doing without having thought through the next stages, and it will be (i) enjoying the game of tweaking the NATO tail, and (ii) ready to use a more robust response to try and justify its next actions whether they are in Ukraine or another country. Russia’s history is one of sustained state malevolence which means we can never rest easy.
I can imagine those two Mig31's didn't even spot the F35's until they probably pulled up next to them or made radio contact. Despite the Mig31 being rather fast, and even with it's advanced radar, it apparently can't track a F35 until it's about 18km away, by then the F35 has already fired it's weapons and gone home.
I say don't take the bait, at least yet. Putin loses a few clapped out soviet rustbuckets and gets a big propaganda victory. We get....nothing. Wait until he sends something valuable at least.
Re the F35 appearing out of nowhere...afaik, most of the time stealth aircraft have some things bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar. Partly so that civilian aviation won't accentially get in their way, partly so that adverseries don't get to see what their radar signature is in stealth mode. Does anyone know if they NATO jets in this theature are keeping stealth under wraps
non paywall version of Timbas link https://archive.is/J8Yth
Is nobody checking the pilots' digital ID as they cross the boarder and preventing them entry? 😉
Oslo and Copenhagen airports were recently shut down by drones, almost certainly Russian or Russia adjacent operations, something needs to be done as they're not just going to stop of their own accord.
Problem there, as was pointed out in an article I read, is where, exactly, do you bring a drone down? Plenty of civilian infrastructure which won’t take kindly to a burning drone dropping through the roof.
Especially when nobody knows exactly what kind of UAV they’re dealing with.
There are a number of countries, particularly around the Baltic and Scandinavia who I get the feeling are barely able to control themselves at the moment, they’re just itching to get medieval on the ass of anything that’s got a connection with Putin and Russia.
Especially the Finns.
Re the F35 appearing out of nowhere...afaik, most of the time stealth aircraft have some things bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar.
They’re called transponders, and they can switch them on and off at will, which is why, if you can actually see military aircraft in flight, especially if there’s more than one, ADS-B will often only show one aircraft.
There’s nothing ‘bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar’, as that would rather defeat the principle of a stealth aircraft - it wouldn’t be particularly useful to have to land to unbolt something in the middle of a combat zone… 😏
Let's all try to stay calm.
Easy for you to say - you’re not the ones with large UAV’s or Migs and Sukhois flying over your house.
Yet.
There’s nothing ‘bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar’, as that would rather defeat the principle of a stealth aircraft - it wouldn’t be particularly useful to have to land to unbolt something in the middle of a combat zone…
In fairness to dakuan, he's right, when the stealth capability isn't actually required they do fit things to the aircraft to increase its radar signature.
Re the F35 appearing out of nowhere...afaik, most of the time stealth aircraft have some things bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar.
They’re called transponders, and they can switch them on and off at will, which is why, if you can actually see military aircraft in flight, especially if there’s more than one, ADS-B will often only show one aircraft.
There’s nothing ‘bolted onto them that makes them really obvious on radar’, as that would rather defeat the principle of a stealth aircraft - it wouldn’t be particularly useful to have to land to unbolt something in the middle of a combat zone… 😏
No, that is just incorrect. They are fitted with Luneburg lens’s bolted on to the upper and lower fuselage to provide a large radar return and mask their true radar signature.
F35 has hardpoints to carry external loads on it's wings. It's internal storage isn't that large, just 4 hardpoints. With the wing hard points mounted it can carry over 8000kgs, the US Navy version (F35-C) nearly always carries two external fuel tanks. It's a multi-role aircraft that can be stealthy if it needs to be, rather than the other way around. It's partly why its so popular around the world.
Russia currently has radar that'll see F35 even when it's being sneaky, tracking it accurately is another matter altogether though. The MiG-31 has a pretty massive (by today's standard) phased array in that huge nose cone that has a 120km (or so) range, and data link capability. AFAIK the ground radar alerts the MiG31 that there's F35 in the area, and transfer the data, the MiG would point a couple of its R33 (semi active radar) in the general direction, or if was carrying them; R73 with is a IR (doesn't need radar just heat) and let them track the F35 if they could. Plus the MiG ( like most modern aircraft) would get a warning as soon as it being locked by a missile like a Meteor or AMRAAM, and as it's the fastest thing around, could probs evade pretty well. I think the MiG even has a gun, although I doubt it pilots would want to get into a fist-fight with an F35.
In this encounter, I'd have thought the F-35 would have its transponder on though, so the Russians would've seen them straight away.
Just looked up those Luneburg lenses and they are tiny, hance not really spotting them whilst in flight - the F35's I've seen flying haven't had any external fuel pods (North Wales). Impressively smooth aircraft up close though. Compared to most other aircraft there is a distinct lack of visible rivets, sensors etc and they are very clean, unlike most other in service aircraft like the Typhoon of F15's. One of the Typhoons at RIAT actually had an oil tray under it as it was dripping.
Just looked up those Luneburg lenses and they are tiny, hance not really spotting them whilst in flight - the F35's I've seen flying haven't had any external fuel pods (North Wales). Impressively smooth aircraft up close though. Compared to most other aircraft there is a distinct lack of visible rivets, sensors etc and they are very clean, unlike most other in service aircraft like the Typhoon of F15's. One of the Typhoons at RIAT actually had an oil tray under it as it was dripping.
The SR71 Blackbirds always parked above a big oil tray, but that was designed-in fuel leakage.
When the aircraft heated up at speed at high altitude the panels expanded and stopped any leaks. Plastics at the time couldn't contain the specialised JP7 fuel
One of the Typhoons at RIAT actually had an oil tray under it as it was dripping.
More likely coolant for the avionics than fuel or oil. They use some fairly nasty stuff that is up for replacement as it’s been such a pain in the ****.
specialised JP7 fuel
It had, apparently, such low volatility, that a trick for victors was to drop a lighted match into one the trays and watch it just go out. It was so reluctant to burn they had to start SR71 engines with TEB, literally rocket fuel
Especially the FinnsPissing the Finns is an exercise in FAFO that should be taken very seriously... Unless you want to get shot by someone's grandma.
Can we not convince some died hard religious types to take Putin out?
F35 has hardpoints to carry external loads on it's wings. It's internal storage isn't that large, just 4 hardpoints. With the wing hard points mounted it can carry over 8000kgs, the US Navy version (F35-C) nearly always carries two external fuel tanks. It's a multi-role aircraft that can be stealthy if it needs to be, rather than the other way around. It's partly why it’s so popular around the world.
There are no external fuel tanks for the F-35 currently.
Israel's F35I variant has both underwing and stealthier conformal auxiliary tanks.
It's supposed that they were used to attack Iran, but there aren't any photos out there.
The US is looking at this development in 2026
Well Poland has laid down the gauntlet, I wonder if Russia will risk finding out if they mean it. My bet would be that Russia won’t risk flying any of their jets in Polish airspace.
Well Poland has laid down the gauntlet, I wonder if Russia will risk finding out if they mean it. My bet would be that Russia won’t risk flying any of their jets in Polish airspace.
link?
Speech in the UN by the polish president 😉