[Closed] This 'critical threat' stuff

hard to tell , and i suspect you own political bias plays into your interpretation [ and mine] but I hope she is doing the right thing

Politically she may well be glad we are not discussing her dementia tax shambles but none of us will know for sure the true reason ;this speculative thread is all a bit pointless

this speculative thread is all a bit pointless

Edit; I can't help but think that the 'right thing to do' would be to postpone the election by a set period to let us get back onto an even keel. At this rate we'll still be reeling and feeling unsafe when we go to the polls.

I also think there is a time to switch of the tribal politics , now is the time
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You are wrong; this is not political opportunism. It is national security.

Prime Ministers take advice from National Security Council and Joint Intelligence Committee; it is these two organisations which recommend changes to the national threat level.

Prime Minister acts as the mouthpiece.

You should not attempt to conflate two wholly separate issues. Your post reads like an attempt to make cheap political capital out of a tragedy.

Yep, as per Junkyard and Frank, above.

And, really, just what do you expect May to do? Ignore it and pretend all is well?

What? PM mobilises us squaddies to go pull some dull gate duty while the Police trained for this type of scenario get freed up to do their actual job of policing and public protection? Yeah, political opportunism... 🙄

is it not worryingly more likely to be on the back of the arrests made today?

Whilst maybe not quite as cynical as you I do sadly think all the big hitters second or third thought would have been how to ensure they came across as priministorial when talking about it on tv. Also where to pitch their words to appeal to the bigots for whom this sort a horrendous act is confirmation of their views and not loose the muslim vote. I guess I don't hold politicians or their words in very high regard any more.

Looking at it from the other angle....what logic made the middle of an election campaign a good time to plan a terrorist attack? Or as a 22 year old extremist caught up in your own version of reality would he have even have noticed there was an election campaign on?

Well, I hope you're all right, and that her actions are reasonable, proportionate and most importantly, effective in protecting the public. Time will tell, I suppose. As my OP stated; I completely accept that I'm feeling rather cynical and fed up at the moment; I suspected political mileage being made out of tragedy, and voiced my concern in the safest space for comment that I know; here! Thanks for the correction.

The government don't set the threat level, it's the security services. As a serving cop, I have no love for May, but to suggest she is trying to create political capital out of this.......

You are wrong; this is not political opportunism. It is national security.

This.

We're due to hold a massive international event here in Cardiff so security, that was already a bit OTT, is being ramped up right now. Can you imagine the chaos and fallout (not to mention how tempting it would look to the perpetrators) if another attack happens in the international eye so quickly? Barring a national curfew and mass house arrests nothing is going to be out of proportion for the next week or two here. It may be different in other parts of the country, the whole normal life-don't let them win applies, but any big event is going to be locked down as much as possible for a while yet.

Then gets to suggest that it's her 'strong and stable' leadership that kept us all safe

It simply comes down whether you trust your government or not. In times like these people tend do a flip and put faith back in them which I always find odd. So I agree there could be a knock on effect that benefits them.

World is full of heinous stuff though. It's part of every day life unfortunately, the internet makes that loud and clear. Irrespective of political feelings.

I don't think this speculative thread is pointless. Lots of threads are ultimately pointless but some people just need to discuss and get stuff off their chests. I don't like the idea that stuff gets shut down just because it goes into tricky areas of debate.

if the conservatives take advantage of the situation for political gain it tells you all you need to know

Well, they've already shown that they are more than happy to put their own personal interests ahead of the national interest (Exhibit A - Brexit), so the OP is probably not being over-cynical.

I'm more cynical than most when it comes to politicians, particularly the tories.

But, no, I don't think this is politically driven. The attack recently has shown a degree of sophistication and planning beyond the capacity of a single person. Clearly the police have an idea of the people/numbers involved, clearly they haven't located them all and the concern will be that the rest of the cell will bring forward other plans before they located. Hence the escalation.

It's a bit of damned if you do, damned if you don't.

The right wing press would be up in arms if there wasn't an appropriate level of reaction (what happened in France after the '15 attacks) and if there is a further attack , a lack of a suitably robust response could be electorally significant. Just not going to be allowed by a Tory govt... (Strong & stable?)...

Interesting that the initial news coverage I heard had the police making political capital that the reduction on numbers (20,000 officers lost?) meant that they didn't have the manpower, lack of armed officers, etc. I don't think the government had an option. Bearing in mind the police comments of lack of manpower...

I seem to remember that since 2010 that the tories have cut police numbers by 20000. That suggests to me how they regard the threat.

I doubt the change in level is political, as weve heard there is a mechanism in place and must be some substantive reason.

I do worry though that the outcome will be more votes for blue, they make the noises some people want to hear about immigration and the 'strong and stable' narritive is more likely to appeal.

It all just raises emotions when whats really needed is some calm and critical thought about the cause of such tragedies.

Corbyns more likely to provide that but when he does the DM types use his words for political advantage.

I'm not sure they had any option. Until they know otherwise they have to assume there is another attack very likely quite soon. In both Brussels and Paris you had multiple attacks planned with one attacker backing out in Paris. If there is a risk of a second person being out there having changed their mind then yes they need a much higher profile and a different operating environment

Well, they've already shown that they are more than happy to put their own personal interests ahead of the national interest (Exhibit A - Brexit), so the OP is probably not being over-cynical.

Corbyn was campaigning on a leave ticket since 1983, I distinctly remember that the referendum campaign had people from all sides campaigning leave or remain.

I suggest you wear a tin foil hat for the rest of the year

It's mainly to do with the fact that Police and Mi5 don't know if he made the bomb on his own, or whether there is a bomb maker out there that has gone undetected and could've made others

Wot frank said. May will have been given recommendations from the security services as to the threat level and the escalation would have been agreed at the COBRA meeting. Plus, FA Cup final this w/e, big event, high profile.

As someone who is going to spend all of Sunday at an event with 10s of thousands of people crammed into a relatively small area with historically very hard to manage security this critical stuff isn't going unwelcomed.

Imagine if the PM did not escalate the security status and something else happened?

As spekkie suggests.

it does, as well though, have the handy by-product of making you look a serious and statesmanlike politician in many peoples eyes though

Reported on R4 this morning that it was the police who requested it was raised for legitimate operational and security concerns.

Doubt that will stop the pointless political point scoring here and elsewhere, sadly.

It's not a byproduct of 'looking' serious and statesmanlike - it IS being serious and statesmen like. The PM is unlikely to raise the threat level unilaterally without taking a recommendation from the security services even if it were possible for her to do so. She wouldn't get away with it anyway. There are actual consequences of doing that it's not just something that is done to make people feels safer and more secure. Additional resources will be deployed and activity will be happening as a result. I suspect part of the normal process will be to justify the raising of the threat level with real evidence of a concern/worry to prevent people just doing it on a whim or even as a 'just in case' measure.

While I have a great distrust of anything May says/does, this is a rock and a hard place type of situation.

Best to play safe and that's what she is doing. Hopefully no more families will have their loved young ones torn from them.

Perhaps she might see benefit in more police out in the community after this.

Meanwhile, we're more at risk riding our bikes, so take care out there.

I seem to remember that since 2010 that the tories have cut police numbers by 20000. That suggests to me how they regard the threat.

Agree. Reduce numbers, increase risk. No obvious direct link to the bombing but should have been consideration when reducing.
Guessing would be seen as political point scoring if pressing May on it now.

I don't believe for one minute that this is political bias, there are a lot of big sporting events on very soon and whilst the Forces and Police are undermanned it's the only option "she" has. But it will suit her political beliefs, and place fear in the Public domain again.

I think the election should be put back a month or 2. Where she should or not I think will gain points from being a 'leader' in times of crisis. Her faults should not be forgotten though.

As has been said raising the threat level to Critical isn't just a fairly meaningless thing for public consumption that political capital can be gained from. The government agency I work for (not directly) acts upon it and has just sent around updated guidance, lets just say getting into certain premises has changed along with a greater armed presence and more frequent routine searches - real things happen based on the threat level not just newspaper headlines.
Even if it were up to the PM to decide on the threat level, what would you do in her shoes? Not raise it and risk massive fallout if another attack happens or raise it in the knowledge there are more than likely other active cells in the country and there may be a degree of coordination between them so that it would be prudent to take additional security measures?

Some google-fu shows that the JTAC set the treat level, not the PM (although I would imagine they would be in close contact/agreement over the level).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Threat_Levels

Political capital, no.

Working in a potential target area we have been taking this seriously for a long while now, how we have any effect on stopping a lone wolf attack I don't know. We know the after effects of terrorism all too well.

I think the election should be put back a month or 2.

Where she should or not I think will gain points from being a 'leader' in times of crisis.

We have reached this threat level before. By its very nature it can only be a short term thing, and I expect it will have relaxed to the previous level before we go to the polls on the 8th June. Mrs May will have little impact (good or bad) on how long it takes to get there.

So JTAC recommend a higher threat level and the police (who probably don't like May very much) request Operation Temperer, then you conclude that these two independent organisations are part of the Tory political campaign?

Chuck your bias in the bin and top trying to make political capital out of the deaths. I don't see how anyone could read the reports of the dead (and 8 year old FFS) and say that "It's all working out perfectly"

OP - I had exactly the same thought, and I can't shake it.

And I think it's brave of you to say it, to be honest - I wanted to, but dared only speak of it to my wife.

Which is terrible.

Free speech means it should be easy for us to discuss such things, and to be allowed to think them. It is an objective possibility that May is taking political advantage from a terrible turn of events - she certainly wouldn't be the first.

Of course there are many unknowns, sensitivities and what-not, but, in the balance of things, I believe that this is May being extremely cynical and politically opportunistic.

Of course it goes without saying that I might be wrong, and in a perverse way, I hope I am.

But that doesn't mean I can't have thoughts of my own, and it certainly doesn't mean I should be prevented from expressing them "at such a difficult time", whatever emotions Mrs Strong-and-Stable would prefer us all to be blinded by.

If there is an attack with an explosive device, past history tells us there is likely to be other people involved, and that they may attack as soon as possible before they are discovered. The threat level is correct, 'till more is known.

^^ Like

Here we go again.
This is not political; it is a clear matter of national security.
PM has been advised by JTAC - which is a politically independent body - to raise the threat level.
@iffoverload - take your views to one of the political threads where you might find some like-minded simple souls who share your views.

I think the last time it was critical was after a terrorist attack so it is entirely normal that it is again. This might make May look good but really it is not deliberate on her part or cynical.

However I am sure that any momentum Labour had will be halted and also May's terrible interview with Andrew Neil forgotten.

@frankconway

OP:

does it not just stink of massive political opportunism on the back of a horrendous and despicable event?

The cause of this is entirely political or are you suggesting it is a sport of some kind?

take your spreadsheet-minded mentality and share it with your complex kind 😉

Raising the threat level is clearly a security decision, and non-political.

It's possible to think this and also think that our actions in the middle east may be linked to this awful situation, so why was iffoverload's post removed? Is it offensive to point out that we have been bombing various middle eastern countries for the last 15 years or so? And pointing out that there may be a connection between this and these appalling acts of terrorism?

Don't forget that the security forces are political animals as well, they will be pushing for more funding and more staff and will take any opportunity to demonstrate their 'importance' to the nation (remember them driving tanks around Heathrow).

£ per life the money would probably be better spent on improving road safety (more than 22 people die on UK roads every week) than on putting troops on the streets...............

here is my commentagain... and thanks for the censorship.

"strong and stable" ?

when May has the same level of exposure as the general public and carries on her day as normal then maybe she will earn the right to say things like that.

Goverment meddling in countries we feel we have a right to intervene when it suits us leads to this type of horrific occurance. A total failure is what it is.

The real issues and cause of these type of attacks are avoided and instead they are used for spin and public point scoring, it is a disgrace.

**** her, her high security, her bulletproof limo, and the rest of the cowards that shed their part of the blame and responsibility, who hide themselves and shamelessly tell everyone to carry on as normal.

Is it offensive to point out that we have been bombing various middle eastern countries for the last 15 years or so? And pointing out that there may be a connection between this and these appalling acts of terrorism?

Weren't his family massively opposed to (and refugees from) the Gadaffi regime, and able to return home as a result of the evil west helping topple him?

£ per life the money would probably be better spent on improving road safety (more than 22 people die on UK roads every week) than on putting troops on the streets...............

I was wondering when this would come up. I did hope it wouldn't sadly my hope was in vain 🙁

Weren't his family massively opposed to (and refugees from) the Gadaffi regime, and able to return there as a result of the evil helping topple him?

are you suggesting that libya is a safer and more stable place since the latest western intervention?

but does it not just stink of massive political opportunism on the back of a horrendous and despicable event?

This was my initial thought, but do you think any other leader would have done things differently regardless of whether there was an election coming up?

Not a fan of May. I hope the Tories lose the election.

However, I reckon that due to her actions in the last two days then she will triumph over the other parties.

Another five years of the Walking Dead.

I almost wish it was political opportunism. It isn't though, is it?

The security services have been warning for years about the possibility of jihadists returning from Syria having learned the skills necessary to build IED's and suicide vests.

Now it's happened.

So the 'security situation' has just escalated massively, as 'the enemy' now has a capacity it didn't have before, and has shown a willingness to use it. Think it won't do so again? That this was a one off?

No... neither do I. And clearly, neither do the police

You should not attempt to conflate two wholly separate issues. Your post reads like [s]an attempt to make cheap political capital out of a tragedy.[/s] a failure to understand how threat levels are assessed

Plus, this attack might be giving some others ideas. One person thinks "car as weapon" others follow. One thinks "people leaving concert hall= crowds of people in confined space = target", others follow.
Also, the security services will be in overdrive just now. Anyone thinking of an attack might be thinking about bringing it forward as people seen as "peripheral threats" worth being aware of but not necessarily watching have their surveillance levels upped. It looks much more like knee jerk reactions or political opportunism than it actually is.

So the 'security situation' has just escalated massively, as 'the enemy' now has a capacity it didn't have before, and has shown a willingness to use it.

I know nothing about bomb making, but the ability to make and willingness to use an improvised device is certainly nothing new.

It is indeed cynical and quite depressing to think that people would exploit this atrocity for their own nefarious benefit. Even with my confirmation bias firmly shelved; these are politicians that we are talking about. Of course they are using this to make political capital, it's what they do.

We do need some very clear un emotional fact based thinking.

How do acts of terrorism scale compared to other avoidable risks such as road safety, polution, obesity or mental health?

What responsibility (if any) does Islamic culture play in the action of some followers?

Why do young people of Asian decent not feel part of Britain?

What is the effect of western military action in the middle east.

What is the effect of us selling weapons in the middle east.

Why are the oil companies giving money to our governing party.

This is my opinion,

The police have lost 20k officers since 2010, we are told that the bomber was known to the police, would having extra officers have meant they could keep better tabs on him? Having soldiers on the streets of NI didn't really help, they are not police after all their raison d'etre is different.

There was a threat and has been for a while but the government has chosen to cut police numbers, if you treat someone like crap there is a high probabilty they will lash out. Go read the front pages of papers like the Mail to see how they regard so many.

At some point you are going to have to deal with the world outside and start asking where the money is coming from and what the solution is, is Saudi exporting Wahhabism the problem is the UK buying Saudi oil an issue. Isis makes there money buy selling oil, someone must be buying it.... Should we be supplying weaponry to Saudi? etc etc

You mean looking at the root causes and addressing the behaviour of the government rather than just blaming muslims?

That will never catch on.

Here we go again.
This is not political; it is a clear matter of national security.
PM has been advised by JTAC - which is a politically independent body - to raise the threat level.

The decision to raise the threat level may not be political, but don't think for one moment that there aren't cogs turning in the minds of those in Government over how to capitalise on this in the future.

[quote=mrmo said]This is my opinion,
The police have lost 20k officers since 2010, we are told that the bomber was known to the police, would having extra officers have meant they could keep better tabs on him?

The police don't keep tabs do they ? Thought it was MI5.

As has been said raising the threat level to Critical isn't just a fairly meaningless thing for public consumption that political capital can be gained from.

You think?

There are a lot of studies which show that raising fear / threat levels politically benefit the incumbent as anxiety makes people seek the familiar and less likely to opt for change.

Will benefit the Tories by a few % points in the election.

I can't believe this wasn't at the forefront of May's mind when she chose to do so. Rubbing her hands with glee, more like.

[quote=kerley ]You mean looking at the root causes and addressing the behaviour of the government rather than just blaming muslims?
That will never catch on.

you mean like this?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/david-camerons-ill-conceived-libya-war-led-to-rise-of-islamic-st/

@grumpysculler

I dont buy this independent line. The Head of SIS is an employee of the foreign office and appointed by the foreign secretary. The current one was appointed by this government 3 years ago.

My opinion for what it's worth....

We do need some very clear un emotional fact based thinking.

Which does happen at governmental and institution levels, apart from when the general public are concerned.

How do acts of terrorism scale compared to other avoidable risks such as road safety, polution, obesity or mental health?

very low but it is a security issue. If people start to feel unsafe then our whole society breaks down.

What responsibility (if any) does Islamic culture play in the action of some followers?

Terrorism has no religion, but the terrorists have 'weaponised' islam to suit their own ends. If I were a muslim this would p me off and I would expect the collective muslim 'people' to rise up and condemn and do what they could to re-claim their religion, which I'm sure they are doing. So they play a pivotal role but not 100% their responsibility. Personally as an atheist so treat all religions with equal distain, I think there are some fundamental incompatibilities with Islamic values and Christian/western democratic values, so there is a reckoning that has to occur at some point if we're to live peacefully together, but in this day and age offence seems to trump free speech so we're doomed. That's how Brexit happened. Personally I'd like to see all religions relegated to 'pass-times' that people do in their spare time, like playing Squash or mountain biking. The world will be all the better for it (refer back to your first question about un-emotional thinking).

Why do young people of Asian decent not feel part of Britain?

There are plenty of non-Asian people who don't fit in with any society they are in. Britain is not alone in this nor are some Asian people. Its just an excuse and something that those who radicalise people look for to exploit. Radicalisation is the root cause here, and islam is the tool and social misfits are the targets. It's plain good old fashioned brain washing.

What is the effect of western military action in the middle east.

It's complicated. I spent 5 years traveling to the ME and spoke to many people on this from various ME countries. There are many different points of view. Some see western intervention as absolutely key and necessary and welcome it. Some think we should keep our noses out. Some are desperate for a western style of democracy, some think it is incompatible with Islamic principles and wont work in the Islamic world. Some blame Saudi Arabia, some blame Iran, for some Israel is the only issue and fix that (i.e. wipe Israel off the face of the earth) and all will be well in the world. It's complicated and very very hard.

What is the effect of us selling weapons in the middle east.

Why are the oil companies giving money to our governing party

Not sure they are they? They've stamped down on all that sort of behaviour. But oil companies, just like big non-oil companies will have an opinion of what party would benefit them most if in power and support them as best they can to achieving power. No different to people really, they try to influence the outcome to their advantage - just like people proposing tactical voting, which is just a legitimate form of vote rigging.

So in summary politics is a hard and complicated business.

Completely unfounded of course but my level of cynicism and having a similar view of Tories as Aneurin Bevan the whole Manchester catastrophe is something panning out like a Francis Urquhart plot.

Have a look on Twitter at #BritishThreatLevels
A welcome injection of humour to the whole awful situation

crazy-legs - Member
Have a look on Twitter at #BritishThreatLevels
A welcome injection of humour to the whole awful situation

superb 😀

Scott Reid? @scottreid1980 2h2 hours ago
More
"So we're going to mix up where everyone sits at the wedding reception so you can meet new people." #britishthreatlevels

@wobbliescot good insight, on the last point apparently 390k recently not including their wife's contribution.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/oil-bosses-have-given-390000-to-tories-conservatives-under-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_fb

Nick Clegg (strong critic of both May and Amber on past approaches to connected issues) on Radio4 now talking sense on current response: they are doing what has to be done this week in supporting those who have tough/important jobs to do.

As soon as Victoria is reopened, I'm off into Manchester.

Leave the conspiracy theories for another time.

Well, at least The Sun is leaving no doubt about using a tragedy for political ends. Disgusting.

https://www.change.org/p/andy-burnham-ban-boycott-the-sun-newspaper-in-manchester

@wobbliscott - your comment about 'weaponising' can, regrettably, be widely applied.
You refer to religion; it's also used in politics and on other subjects.
For all contributors.....for what it's worth - i hate it; stick to the facts and focus your comments on the facts. Forget about points scoring and personal prejudice.
I commend to you the 4 F's - First Find the Facts; when you've done that we can have a rational discussion.
Until then.......

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/05/24/britishthreatlevels-funniest-british-response-ever/

The Sun's first edition on Tuesday indeed did lead with a story about Corbyn - but this was because they are not clairvoyant it was published before the bomb exploded. Front page of later editions naturally splashed on the bomb. So it a ****ing ridiculous petition, but based on some of frankly disgusting conspiracy theories being aired, it is hardly surprising.

Mods - I did not use the F word in full; I used asterisks *.

Your edit now means that the 4 F's have been devalued to three meaningless F's; the F you have deleted gives relevance to the post.

If you suggest four Fs and your subsequent clause has three words beginning with F I'd respectfully suggest that even the forum's Professionally Hard Of Thinking will be able to work out where the fourth F has gone.

The fourth F has clearly F'ed off.

You acknowledge that some forumites are congenitally hard of thinking? That's reassuring.

All set for your mini sufferfest on Sunday? Good cause but next time - half marathon.

Before you ask, yes I've done everything upto 20 miles so I empathise.

Oh to be a mod - the unbridled power and influence; or is it the drudgery.....................

Mostly the latter to be honest.

I wonder why I bother sometimes, due to personal circumstances I've not ridden anywhere in like three years now.

For effs sake, we can effing communicate without effing effing

I wonder why I bother sometimes, due to personal circumstances I've not ridden anywhere in like three years now.

FWIW, I appreciate that you do Mod, especially in times like the last few days.

Since the attacks two years ago on Charlie Ebdo and the Jewish supermarket France has seen 5000 troops on its streets. Adding military support to our (really very few) armed police makes perfect sense. Islamic terrorist groups have been calling for and preparing attacks in the West for years now hence the prior level of alert, the Manchester bombing shows clearly we face a heightened risk. My shock isn't that it happened - that was only a matter of time - it is that they chose to target children.

Libya and Gadaffi where the prime suppliers of Cemtex to the IRA. Cemtex is very powerful and its my understanding does not show up on normal airport style scanners (its the battery, wired and detonator you'd see in a complete bomb). As such its very possible that this Libyian group - Libyian Islamic Foghting Force - has access to supplies of very powerful military grade high explosive smuggled into the UK.

We face the most extreme threat.