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[Closed] There is hope for us yet - Tories get shown the door

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Amersham by election

Nice to see this happening in the tory heartlands 🙂

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 9:57 am
 Keva
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Good 🙂

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:05 am
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A lot of different takes on this one.

It’s a seat the LDs were usually second in. Also there was a decent amount of Lab\Green tactical voting to GTTO, along with disaffected centre-right Tories who feel their votes have been taken for granted. Plus the Tory candidate comes across as a bit of a plank.

Big questions are whether this can be repeated in a GE, and whether it’s a sign of trying to appeal to the red wall at the expense of the Home Counties Tory heartlands, many of which were also Remainia, is starting to backfire.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:05 am
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622 votes for Labour - that seems pretty terrible.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:09 am
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622 votes for Labour – that seems pretty terrible.

Not really. Tactical voting innit?

It means that a large majority of the voters in this constituency wanted the Tories out and voted for the most likely candidate to ensure that happened.

I wouldn't try and read much more into it than that, though many will

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:15 am
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That slow clap by the Conservative candidate was great. What a plonker.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:15 am
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Amersham has been a Tory safe seat since I was a baby, something seismic is happening there for such a swing. Some locals have expressed a view that the party in government no longer represents their interests, others have expressed dismay at the Tory "culture war" that's playing well to former red wall constituents.

Although Labour tanked, there was a realisation that tactical voting was key to booting out the nasties.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:22 am
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Isn't this just a NIMBYism vote over HS2 & green belt changes - nothing to get het up about nationally?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:24 am
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The government have made it clear that they are in office to serve property developers. In this seat, that really hasn't gone down well.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:25 am
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nothing to get het up about nationally?

True. But our "national" elections are really just hundreds of elections for local candidates. This could still mean one more seat (and a few other similar seats) being taken/kept from the Conservatives, even if the reasons why don't apply at all in many (most) other seats.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:37 am
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It's a remarkable result. The key seemed to be HS2, but I get the impression Labour, knowing they had no chance, and probablly knowing the Libs strategy, didn't turn up.

I'm sure Boris has woken (if he's up yet) with WTF plastered all over his face. Boris will be starting to feel the pain that Labour have been feeling, by moving away from centre to chase votes, they're alienating their base. Amersham and Chesham voted to Remain by a healthy majority, this might to be a very late protest vote about Brexit, but it's an indication they're probably very CENTRE-right and this new, centre-RIGHT Tory party can't rely on them, if there's a compelling reason to vote elsewhere.

From Labour's point of view, I suppose it's a good result, even though they did so badly. I've being reading about Amersham, it's not exactly Labour Land.

The Libdems will be delighted no doubt, they haven't been able to win a raffle for years, I have no idea who their leader was until I read the link above.

IMHO it again raises an important question for both Labour and the Libs, the Libs won, at least in part, because Labour didn't turn up. Some of the more seasoned, Labour figures have been talking about at least a pact with the Libs at the next election, if not a merger. It makes sense, Labour itself is a merged Party (there's the old Co-Op party buried in there) and of course the Libs are a Labour spin-off party. We've talked for years about UKIP leeching votes from the Tories (they took votes from Labour too) but how many Tory MPs got their position because they beat a Labour or Lib Dem candidate by 3% when the 3rd place candidate took 10%.

The Libs can't win the next election, or the one after that. Labour could, even an agreement not to field candidates in no-hope constituencies would make a huge difference.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 10:54 am
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I agree with P Jay. It's just a shame that my local Tory scumbag got more votes than all the others put together and we are a remain area.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 11:05 am
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the Libs are a Labour spin-off party.

Well… kind of.

There was a really interesting (if you are a Lib Dem) recent episode of the Lib Dem podcast with John Curtice, which essentially said that appealing to more prosperous pro-Remain suburban seats with a high proportion of graduates was likely to be a way forward for the party, and to be honest this looks like a reflection of this.

Plus a lot of Lab/Green/soft Tories voted tactically, and the Tory candidate is an idiot who has been on social media blaming the electorate for voting the wrong way this morning, something that always plays well when other parties have done it.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 11:41 am
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That slow clap by the Conservative candidate was great. What a plonker.

Yep, graceless and it probably won't be forgotten by the constituents either. Comments by Sunak to the effect that electing Tory MP is a guarantee of better funding will have enraged many too.

I do think that we'll see some home counties Tory MPs pushing back against policy too. Cuts to overseas aid, trade agreements that will decimate British agriculture, can kicking over social care, the disastrous trade war with the EU and Northern Ireland are of concern to many Tory moderates - both Theresa May and Damien Green have started to express disquiet and still have some influence. The new intake of Tory MPs and candidates post 2017 seem to be ideologically reliable at the expense of ability.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:00 pm
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his new, centre-RIGHT Tory party can’t rely on them, if there’s a compelling reason to vote elsewhere.

The current Tory government is nowhere near the centre.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:02 pm
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It's an absolutely enormous swing. I think it does reflect the fact that a lot of traditional Tory voters are appalled at the transformation of the party into UKIP and the problems this toxic nationalism is causing. I doubt they've much time for all this 'culture war' nonsense either.

Comments by Sunak to the effect that electing Tory MP is a guarantee of better funding will have enraged many too.

Pork barrel politics at its finest, now being applied all over the north of England. Vote in a Tory MP and get showered in funding, elect a labour MP and you'll not be seeing a penny

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:15 pm
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We've got a Tory since 2019 and I can't say I've seen much of this promised funding, though.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:17 pm
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I might be being thick here, but how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:20 pm
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We’ve got a Tory since 2019 and I can’t say I’ve seen much of this promised funding, though.

No... me neither. As with everything Boris does, it's all about the promises, not the delivery.

Once he's made the big announcement, he quickly gets bored and wanders off to do something else. Have a whisky or twelve. Shag a Russian violinist. That sort of thing

The pandemic has allowed him to get away with non-delivery. For now. That won't last. At which point its worth remembering that a lot of these new northern Tory MPs are sat on paper-thin majorities. In my constituency its 100 votes

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:22 pm
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how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?

They won't/can't. Politics is weird isn't it... people have already forgotten that Johnson used opposition to Heathrow airport expansion to get votes.

it’s all about the promises, not the delivery

I believe the promises about spending money, but don't expect anything of substance to be delivered. When Johnson talks about "funding", he means diverting our money to his people.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:24 pm
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I think it does reflect the fact that a lot of traditional Tory voters are appalled at the transformation of the party into UKIP

I wouldn't be so sure of that, UKIP came second in the 2015 election there.

I grew up in the constituency, it is harder to imagine a place more Tory than that. My parents still live there and are fully signed up Daily Mail reading Tories. But, and it is a big but, HS2 is decimating massive swathes of green belt countryside. It is hard to impress the scale of what is happening, it really is horrific. My parents voted Lib Dem as a result of that. Too little, too late but they still voted against Tory, I expect for the first time in their lives.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 12:30 pm
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Funny…

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1405843323080876036?s=21

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:38 pm
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Hopefully it might be the start on the road back to respectability as a nation, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:42 pm
 poly
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The thing is voting Lib Dem was a safe protest in a by-election. The government / PM wasn't going to change based on the result. You get to make your objection to the status quo known with no risk that by not backing the incumbent you let some even worse (in your view) option in.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:44 pm
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Yes only for fun but Green still just have the one seat!

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:45 pm
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At least its a show of what's possible & I doubt HS2 has too much of a bearing as most people round here are pretty resigned to it by now given the extent of the works carried out so far. Let's not forget that more people voted libdem, Labour or Green than voted Conservative in the last general election so there is a groundswell of anti tory votes available. Wycombe used to be a 20k Conservative majority too but that has been whittled away over the years, keeping my fingers crossed that an electoral pact in the next GE can blast the tory ****s into oblivion 🤞

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:52 pm
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Vote in a Tory MP and get showered in funding, elect a labour MP and you’ll not be seeing a penny

Ah. Funding.

Golden boy golden shower vs filthy communist money tree. All depends on one’s opinion in a post-truth alt-fact society enmired in an overwhelmingly fake ‘culture war’

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 1:58 pm
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Yes only for fun but Green still just have the one seat!

Not relevant to that silly swing map... but most people underestimate just how hard it is to get even a second Green MP, never mind a good handful of them in parliament. Something I find depressing... but also a nice easy explainer for anyone who says, "there's nothing wrong with FPTP, you just need more voters". You don't just need more voters, you need more votes to be carefully placed in the right constituencies, which under FPTP needs cross party organisation and much more public understanding to game the system we have.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:01 pm
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Snort

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1405621285217083392?s=20

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:03 pm
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I was trying to remember what his name was

But yeah great to see the Tories losing by such a big swing

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:10 pm
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people have already forgotten that Johnson used opposition to Heathrow airport expansion to get votes.

I'm still waiting for the bulldozer to run him over... Ticktock Boris, Ticktock...

😂

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:16 pm
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I might be being thick here, but how does one Lib Dem MP hope to stop HS2?

They can't, well obviously if there are any more votes in the Commons in regards HS2 then they will vote on behalf of their constituents.

In reality though, it's more of a warning to the Tories, carry on like this and you might lose more MPs next election.,

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:17 pm
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Isn’t this just a NIMBYism vote over HS2 & green belt changes

I agree with Dickboy - Cheryl Gillian was very active anti-HS2 but even she could only mitigate the effect of HS2 - extending the tunnel, more running in cuttings etc.

The A413 is shut for HS2 this weekend, there are worksites all along the route already. It's not stoppable.

Green belt - yes, that's more likely but again people realise that with a large majority the government can do what they like. I actual heard it as a reason to vote Conservative - with a Conservative MP you've got more chance of influencing a Conservative government.

I'm with Dominic Greave - I think this was mainly a rejection of the current untrustworthy government.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:20 pm
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I'd love to get excited by this but

Big drop in turn out - disaffected Tories not bothering thinking they were safe?

By elections are always affected by low turn out/protest vote

Big effort by the LibDems and tactical voting by GTTO

On the plus side, hopefully people are getting over the whole LibDem coalition/tuition fee thing.

I can see a near future where the choices become voting "nationalist" or voting "liberal" with a small "L". And the North/South split will reflect that, but not in the old Red/Blue way. Funnily enough, my 18 year old said the same thing to me

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 2:31 pm
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Johnson knows he's safe with the Red Wall Racists for a bit.

Just goes to show how little of the 'One Nation Tory' party is really left. They might as well re-brand as the ENP now - bovver boots n all.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 4:04 pm
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The thing is voting Lib Dem was a safe protest in a by-election. The government / PM wasn’t going to change based on the result.

Yup, midterm by-elections going against the party in government is to be completely expected.

Parties in power almost always experience a temporary drop in support midterm between general elections.

The fact that the reverse happened recently in Hartlepool is an utter disgrace for the Labour Party and a reflection of the catastrophic crisis it is facing.

Yesterday's by-election result proves how false the narrative peddled by Starmer supporters was that by-elections can't be won due the alleged vaccine bounce. Yesterday's result shows that they can be won even in a seat held by the government.

It won't however make the slightest difference to the Tory hold on power, and it doesn't of course suggest that the LibDems will win the next general election. Nor does it provide the slightest shred of evidence that Labour will defeat the Tories next general election, which is still the only realistic way of defeating a Tory government.

I can't imagine Johnson losing much sleep over yesterday's result, however enthusiastic some people might be.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 4:33 pm
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Anyone got a link to the plank doing the slow clap at the announcement?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 4:40 pm
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Well put ernie. And let’s not forget, for all his ‘knocking down a blue brick wall’ photo-opportunism, Ed Davey will happily jump straight into bed with the tories come the next hung parliament.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 4:43 pm
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I think the Libdems may have second thoughts about that after it near killed them last time.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 4:57 pm
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Anyone got a link to the plank doing the slow clap at the announcement?

you can see it midway through the Dominic Grieve BBC tweet up there 👆

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:03 pm
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Ah… Ernie is here with his “look away now” line.

He won’t be alone. I’ll summarise how most of the media will summarise by-elections…

Tory loss - it doesn’t make any difference to Johnson or say anything about how the Conservatives are governing, they’re doing a great job

Labour loss - everything Kier Starmer is doing is wrong, and in opposition Labour are not fixing things the Conservatives are getting wrong in government

LibDem loss - the party is no more, do they even have a leader?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:04 pm
 grum
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Yesterday’s by-election result proves how false the narrative peddled by Starmer supporters was that by-elections can’t be won due the alleged vaccine bounce. Yesterday’s result shows that they can be won even in a seat held by the government.

Yeah but they can still blame Corbyn for Hartlepool somehow (even though he won there).

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:05 pm
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Parties in power almost always experience a temporary drop in support midterm between general elections.

A 25 point swing though?

Of course it's not seismic but the size of that swing is interesting.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:09 pm
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Tory loss - this was very much about local issues, and the specific candidates standing

Labour loss - this is sign that Labour are falling further and further behind across the UK

LibDem loss - they should consider a new party name, or just disband altogether

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:12 pm
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Kelvin's take on Labour loss - it's all about the vaccine bounce and Starmer is doing fine
Kelvin's take on Conservative loss - Starmer is doing fine even though they came in dead last behind Lib Dems and their win showed that the first point is nonsense

Also, look at the polls and other results kelvin, it all suggests Labour are doing terribly - people don't just make this stuff up out of nothing.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:16 pm
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I think the Libdems may have second thoughts about that after it near killed them last time.

This.

They have been in the wilderness for the tuition fee thing, despite it being a Tory change to a funding model brought in by Labour. But it was the LibDems fault.

The changes we have seen since the end of the coalition have shown how much worse the coalition years would have been without the LibDems having a (minor) sway on Tory policy.

If people genuinely want to get rid of the Tories, a lot of people are going to have to grow up, hold their noses and vote tactically, and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this, with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:17 pm
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Kelvin’s take on Labour loss – it’s all about the vaccine bounce and Starmer is doing fine
Kelvin’s take on Conservative loss – Starmer is doing fine even though they came in dead last behind Lib Dems and their win showed that the first point is nonsense

I've never said Starmer is doing fine. I still think he has zero chance of becoming PM and is the wrong person to lead Labour into a general election. I don't think Hartlepool was really about the vaccine bounce, I think it was about English Nationalists going from the Brexit Party to the party Johnson has made into a Tory UKIP. I am glad that in this seat people not voting Tory got behind the LibDems and removed a Conservative MP rather than spreading their vote thinly between the LibDems, the Green Party and Labour. I want to see more intelligent voting in opposition to Johnson and his project.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:20 pm
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Labour are the weak link in cross party cooperation, (generalising) but they seem to think everyone should step aside for them.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:37 pm
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There are some MPs pushing for it, Clive Lewis is a good example, but by and large, that's a fair summary.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:42 pm
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I think there will be a bit of a backlash when the local voters realise:

- the "local" candidate reportedly lives 30 miles away in West London and has been somewhat creative with her home address
- their new "Business woman" MP reportedly doesn't seem to have any business at all save for some paid campaign work from her only client - the Lib Dems
- the "anti HS2" Lib Dems is led by Sir Ed Davey who voted for HS2 at every opportunity.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:45 pm
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Ah… Ernie is here ....

You make it sound as if you are not too comfortable with me expressing my opinions Kelvin, is it because they are not the same as yours?

Anyway let me expand with more things which you undoubtedly won't agree with but will lack the ability to counter and instead simply rely on making it clear that you don't agree.

I actually think it was a very good result for Johnson it proves that he is on the way to win the next general election. He knows the LibDems can't win the next general election, everyone knows that, but he now knows that based on what happened yesterday Labour aren't on track to win it either.

It would actually have been a worse result for the Tories if they had won yesterday but Labour had significantly increased their share of the vote.

Only Labour can defeat the Tories. They won't do it with 1.6% share of the vote. Or even double that. Or anything even remotely close to that.

The question is how did the LibDems do so well yesterday compared to Labour? Well it's unlikely to because their leader whose name no one remembers has so much more appeal than Keir Starmer.

Firstly by-elections aren't won at a national level. And secondly I have enough experience in election work, including by-elections and both against LibDem candidates and for LibDem candidates (I once helped in a successful LibDem campaign to oust a sitting Tory MP) to know that the LibDems would have thrown everything at that by-election, it's what they do and it's what they are very good at.

I have never been to the constituency but I have no doubt that the voters will have been bombarded with both material and people knocking on their doors.

LibDems campaigns like this are very much policy led. They will have stated their views and policies very clearly and voters would have known what they were voting for, or at least thought they knew what they were voting for.

I suspect that the 1.6% who voted Labour didn't have a clue what they were voting for, other than the Labour Party.

I wasn't there, maybe I'm wrong, but it's an educated guess based on experience.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:52 pm
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We're used to having an MP who doesn't live in the constituency. Cheryl Gillian sold her Amersham house in 2012 and moved back to her main house in Epsom.

It didn't stop her spending a lot of time in the constituency. She was generally a good constituency MP and quite responsive.

Amersham is only 27 miles from Hyde Park Corner so not sure where in West London is 30 miles away?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:55 pm
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He knows the LibDems can’t win the next general election, everyone knows that, but he now knows that based on what happened yesterday Labour aren’t on track to win it either.

I agree that neither the LibDems or Labour are on course to win the next general election. I don’t want the Conservatives to win either. It’ll take the Tories losing seats to both parties (and probably others) for them to lose their grip on power.

Only Labour can defeat the Tories.

I'm more pessimistic. I think Labour are decades away from defeating the Tories on their own. Waiting for that only benefits the Tories.

It would actually have been a worse result for the Tories if they had won yesterday but Labour had significantly increased their share of the vote.

Holding onto seats on less than 50% of the votes in that kind of seat is key to him and his party staying in power. A sign that in previously safe Tory seats voters might get wise to that won't be welcomed by them at all.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 5:56 pm
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power. A sign that in safe Tory seats voters might get wise to that won’t be welcomed by them at all.

The wonderful and unique thing about by-elections, when there is a large majority government, is that voters can indulge in voting for whoever they fancy. Because they know that it will not make an iota of difference to the government. They know that, Johnson knows that.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:08 pm
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I think we should just take a moment to enjoy the fact that, in one small part of this country, there are enough people who aren't thick racists.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:13 pm
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The wonderful and unique thing about by-elections, when there is a large majority government, is that voters can indulge in voting for whoever they fancy.

Yes, having no fear of a Corbyn government would have made it easier for some who voted Tory at the last General Election to switch to voting LibDem at this by-election. They may well swap back at the next election (in fact you can put a few quid on it, that's a safe bet). I'm aware the decision making by voters is different at by-elections and general elections. But... the Tories will not want voters to cotton onto just how many "safe" Tory seats could fall with a different pattern of opposition votes. This by-election result could be very bad news for them if used as demonstration of just what can be done.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:19 pm
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Posted this in the Starmer thread but it makes more sense here:

I’d like to think this win is a good thing but they’re spinning it as “if we can win here we can win everywhere” and that’s just not the takeaway from this election, nor is it the right approach for the 4th party… they seem intent on making the Swinson mistakes again.

Let’s be honest, they won because of a combination of tactical voting, and because a long serving and immensely popular MP died and the tory turnout collapsed. There’s little evidence of them winning significant tory votes. But they’re not acting like they know either of those things. It’s possible it’s all just front and they know what’s really happening, but in the light of the last election I don’t think that can be assumed. And tbf after Swinson they should be working hard to show that they’re not still living in a fantasy world.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:23 pm
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A friend from amersham put it down to 3 things. 1) The previous mp was in for ages and was returned to seat because they were liked. 2) Lots of young people have moved there out of London recently 3) There was anger about a market town building being torn down to be replaced.

I think the only one of those that can be extrapolated to the country at large is the exodus of lefty youngsters out of london. Although I suspect they will be mostly heading for places that are already "not Tory" areas. Sheffield for example seems to be sucking up a lot of Londoners but it's mostly already labour seats.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:24 pm
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nor is it the right approach

Agreed.

See Clive Lewis' comments as regard Davey's and Moran's responses that I posted up the page ^^^

They picked the wrong leader again.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:25 pm
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This by-election result could be very bad news for them if used as demonstration of just what can be done.

What this by-election result proves is that, at the present at least, there is no current Labour Party revival taking place.

That really isn't very bad news for Johnson. He fears Labour, not the LibDems. Although currently he's probably fearing no one, other than possibly Dominic Cummings.

Oh and btw well done for somehow managing to blame Corbyn for the LibDems doing well, I'm sure Keir Starmer is very grateful for your support.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:30 pm
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What this by-election shows is that a seat that the Tories have held without a break for my entire life can be lost by Johnson. Yeah, I'm sure he's not concerned at all.

Oh, and yes, there are people (I know many) who held their noses and voted Conservative at the last General Election, in seats were the LibDems have in the past been in contention or indeed held, because the ..." vote LibDem get Corbyn as PM " line sank home with them. I think they were wrong to fear Corbyn (I voted Labour) but they absolutely did. These people are not scared of Starmer. They're not inspired by him either, and that's a big problem for Labour... he's dull.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:33 pm
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Oh and btw well done for somehow managing to blame Corbyn for the LibDems doing well, I’m sure Keir Starmer is very grateful for your support.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:38 pm
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I’ve said before, I think we’ll end up with US style party views where (and I’m vastly over simplifying it here) the rich and the work class vote Tory/Republican and the middle class vote Labour/LibDem/Democrat.

So an alliance of some kind works well.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:40 pm
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In any case, reasonably well-heeled, reasonably well-educated, middle class service sector workers aren't really Johnson's audience nowadays.

I'm sure there are some people from Hartlepool (for example) who would vote Libdem, but they would be the ones who most likely moved to somewhere like Amersham. 🤣

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:44 pm
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Yeah, I’m sure he’s not concerned at all.

Who said not concerned at all? I said that it could have been a worse result even if they had won. A worse result would have been wining by a small majority and Labour doubling their support signalling a revival of Labour fortunes.

Why do you have to take everything I say to extremes Kelvin? I recently said that I didn't know "loads of people who love Boris Johnson", you somehow managed to change that to "I don't know anyone who likes or supports Boris Johnson". Now you are suggesting that I'm saying he's not bothered about losing a Conservative seat.

Try to be a tad more sophisticated Kelvin and understand the nuances in life.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:52 pm
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Who said not concerned at all?

You said it was a very good result for Johnson.

He lost a seat his party has never lost before.

I'm bored now.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 6:59 pm
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Try to be a tad more sophisticated Kelvin and understand the nuances in life.

What are the nuances in racism/xenophobia as you see them?

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 9:01 pm
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Briefly shown the view on Beachy head would be my idea.

 
Posted : 18/06/2021 9:21 pm
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Amersham. *Amersham*!!! Good God.

*rsl1*, my OH is from there and says (while chortling) similar.

- Previous MPs well liked, one-nation/Wet types.
- HS2
- Old people dying off and their big suburban houses being knocked down and replaced with flats for people who would (normally) be commuting into London - replacing one or two true blue Tory voters with 6 younger Remain voters unimpressed with the current unbusinesslike shenanigans.

.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 12:01 am
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Four years ago Labour came second and received 20% of the vote, yesterday they came fourth and received 1.6% of the vote.

If changing demographics played a significant role in the shock by-election result yesterday how many flats have they built in Amersham in the last four years?

And how many old people have died in the last four years? What's killing them?

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 12:35 am
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Just goes to show that the people of Amersham are bigger NIMBYs than they are racists.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 9:45 am
 poly
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If people genuinely want to get rid of the Tories, a lot of people are going to have to grow up, hold their noses and vote tactically, and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this,

I don't think the problem is the individuals, its the parties. I can't see LibDems and Labour agreeing to not put candidates in each other's hot seats, even agreeing to campaign less there seems unlikely. The tories (and minorities) will jump on it - and spin that to bring out the "vote lib dem get Starmer who's not capable of getting there by himself" or "vote labour get limp dem", and probably a degree of "vote for this pact, and lose the union".

with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government.

I don't think that's a vote winner. You could use a pact to oust the tories and get support for it, but a pact to get ourselves in power and focus on how WM works and keeping ourselves in power is not going to go down well. It should probably be before the end of the next parliament but not the first priority. They'd stand more chance saying a pact to get rid of corruption and cronyism, perhaps using that as an argument for major lords reform.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 10:42 am
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I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris. I get the feeling their patience is starting to wear out with him and the direction the party has gone, hopefully a few more results like this could get a bit of momentum going. While it may not remove them from power it could have the effect of changing their direction and calming down some of the excesses.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 12:17 pm
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I think the only one of those that can be extrapolated to the country at large is the exodus of lefty youngsters out of london. Although I suspect they will be mostly heading for places that are already “not Tory” areas. Sheffield for example seems to be sucking up a lot of Londoners but it’s mostly already labour seats.

this has also been happening in North Hertfordshire. Pre brexit it was also 'donkey with blue rosette' territory - and Peter Lilley for all his Thatchery flaws was a very engaged local MP once he retired from frontline. At the general ellection, the tory majority was whittled down drastically by the lib dem candidate (who has a side hussle as an F1 TV guy). We are now a marginal!

Policy wise was likely an anti Brexit thing, the new tory guy was super brexity, even though his consituency was very remain heavy.

Demographics also changed massively, with the true blues dying off and being replaced by young professionals, lots of whom work for Google, judging by all the hoodies you see on the train platform in the morning

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 12:40 pm
 rone
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Not really. Tactical voting innit?

Pmsl..other week it was all about the vaccine bounce and no other party could hope to compete.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 12:48 pm
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fabulous

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 1:27 pm
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I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris. I get the feeling their patience is starting to wear out with him and the direction the party has gone

I'm hearing a lot of this, but when push comes to shove in an important election I fear "yes, but Starmer/Corbyn/anyone without a blue rosette" will win out

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 1:35 pm
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 and it wod help if the LibDems, Labour, Greens etc would organise themselves to allow this, with electoral reform the first agreed priority for the new government

Electoral reform is well overdue, and it will take everyone to work together on it.

I have noticed a lot of people I know that usually vote Tory are openly criticising them a lot more, especially Boris

My in-laws are life long Tory voters, MiL a Daily Wail reader. For the first time ever my wife (who is visiting them) was hearing frustration with BoJo's behaviour and regret over Brexshit from them last night.

 
Posted : 19/06/2021 3:02 pm