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[url= http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-the-dodgy-dossier-of-independence-1-3954521 ]http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-the-dodgy-dossier-of-independence-1-3954521[/url]
It was a fairly busy news week last week so the above may have been missed. Should be of interest to some on here. There are some interesting quotes there, as well as the title there's this:
“The idea that you could have a Scotland with high public spending, low taxes, a stable economy and a reasonable government debt was wishful a year ago – now it is deluded.”
and this:
“the SNP’s (economic) case – UK levels of spending, no tax increases, relatively high government borrowing but a stable economy – was more possible within the Union than without. With declining oil revenues and a long period of low growth, that is more true now than in the last couple of decades”
I'll go for - 35 pages, an unrelated argument somewhere around page 12, and graphs from about page 4.
#itwasafix
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CFH - With you on that, and at least 2 banhammers
...and at least 2 banhammers
Ban-Malleus Scotorum?
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Where is the like button?
it was heavily flawed when proposed - its only gotten exponentially worse....
Has anyone compared the SNP to IS? Because they're exactly the same, you know
Not really news
oh yes, Brian Wilson - ex West Highland Free Press, now consultant to the big corporations, that B W?
Brian Wilson and the truth. Very rarely seen in the same place, weird, eh?.
Good grief!
The real story is that there is actually someone in Scotland who reads The Scotsman. The paper that committed suicide by BS.
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or
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What's interesting is the way the opinion of one person - not even an economist - is leaped on so enthusiastically by unionists.
Doesn't bother me. Saying that the SNP's finances don't add up so an independent Scotland is a bad idea is like saying since Osborne's sums don't add up* then an independent UK is a bad idea.
If Scotland becomes independent, and the SNP do a bad job of managing the economy, we'll elect someone who can do it better. Just like they do in other countries.
The only way this kind of argument works against an independent Scotland is if you think Scotland is "too wee, too poor, too stupid" to manage whoever is in charge.
*And they don't, he's an economic moron.
Scotland could be an independent country, there is no outcome to that situation where we end up with the same amount of services that we have now however.
The argument for independence is based around an obsession with an arbitrary line on a map and a misguided assumption that all change is good change.
I hate Nats. They're either thick, romantics, racists or all three.
I hate Nats. They're either thick, romantics, racists or all three.
I like you. You're funny.
[quote=bencooper ]Saying that the SNP's finances don't add up so an independent Scotland is a bad idea is like saying since Osborne's sums don't add up* then an independent UK is a bad idea.
If Scotland becomes independent, and the SNP do a bad job of managing the economy, we'll elect someone who can do it better. Just like they do in other countries.
I'm not going to comment on whether the argument is right or wrong - I have no idea - but that response to it is fallacious. The UK is already independent, has been for a long time, and there is no prospect of a vote for it to stop being independent*. Scottish independence was/is** being sold to people with the economy featured quite prominently. If the figures being suggested for post-independence regarding taxation, public spending, deficit and the economy in general are a fairy tale, then people were/are voting on the basis of a lie. It's not a question of whether some other party can do better it's a question of whether it's economically possible.
Note I'm still not commenting on whether it is economically possible or not, simply pointing out that you can't dismiss such objections so lightly because "we'll fix it later".
* well I suppose we're due a vote on whether to be more independent
** I'm not expecting another vote any time soon, but some people are clearly pushing for twice in a generation
[quote=bencooper ]I like you. You're funny.
Which one are you, ben 😉
The question we all need to be asking here is what [i]is[/i] Scotland?
Might be worth reading the Quintilian Dalrymple series by Paul Johnston for the likely outcome....
No, really 😀
I voted yes for independence, but looking at things now I'd do things differently...
The entire basis of the SNP economic argument revolved around North Sea oil revenue. That was at a time when the oil price was still high. The unionists arguments claimed that "yes, oil revenue is good, but you'll run out of it in medium term future".
Now the oil price has slumped, and many believe it will continue to do so for many years to come. On top of this, reserves are dwindling, so even if prices rebound, it'll only be a temporary fix. So oil pretty much needs to be removed completely from any economic case.
And on that basis, high public spending, low taxes, and a stable economy are a pipe-dream. Throw in the collapse of ship-building due to reduced UK orders...
bencooper - MemberWhat's interesting is the way the opinion of one person - not even an economist - is leaped on so enthusiastically by unionists.
Yes, enthusiastically leaped on.
And than sat on I'm sure just as enthusiastically for three days before one person posts a link to it on here.
Fortunately, you always use the word "interesting" before posting something either totally delusional or something that you obviously don't believe yourself, but will repeat if you think it will help your cause.
The vote was to remain united.
Dry yer eyes!
😀
@obelix many of us argued that the Independence campaigns projections where highly flawed not least as oil was at an historical high and it was in fact quite likely the price would fall
I see the SNP are embroiled in a financial scandal as one their MPs has been reported to the police for allegedly misappropriating donations. Very "establishment" eh ?
We want a chart before page 4
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I voted for independence, not 'cos we might be better off, but to be independent.
We want a chart before page 4
Totally inaccurate. A tissue of lies, fabrication and spin.
Ideal. Well done.
quick someone google some made up plentiful oil resource story links before page 2
Which one are you, ben
Definitely romantic. There's no-one more romantic than a Glaswegian male. We're famous for it 😀
but to be independent.
Of what? Westminster? EU? NATO? GCHQ? USA?FIFA?
Reality is Scotland is such a small player that independence is nothing of the sorts really, just a slightly change in the relationships.
An independent Scotland wouldn't be all that small, really - average-sized as countries go.
b r - Member
I voted for independence, not 'cos we might be better off, but to be independent.
Independent of what or whom? Financial independence is easy to explain, hence why it was used so much during the referendum, what does national/political independence Give YOU or any Scotsman? The ability to make your own laws? But Scotland are committed to staying in the Euro, so that'll be governed by Brussels. Genuine question.
Independent of Westminster. If Westminster could be totally reformed - a federal system of government with PR voting - I'd lose all interest in Scottish independence. But I don't believe that can possibly happen, and I think Westminster is so totally broken that the only option is for Scotland to go it alone, despite the risks.
Financial independence is easy to explain
Not really.
I accept that there were and are flaws in the economic argument for independence particularly the currency.I would have preferred to go for a completely separate currency. I notice however that there seems to be a discrepancy between the economic security bettertogether promised last year and what is happening now. How secure are those shipyard jobs looking now that there will be 8frigates not 13.
Genuine question.
And one that [i]may[/i] have been asked before, possibly.
Just stop it.
Now.
Please.
So does it now look like the SNP's economic policy wasn't that viable afterall? Well I never...
How secure are those shipyard jobs looking now that there will be 8frigates not 13.
More secure than than the SNP plans for the Scottish navy would have made them
More secure than than the SNP plans for the Scottish navy would have made them
That's not really the point, though, is it? The point is we were told the shipyard jobs were safe with a No vote. We were told the steel jobs were safe with a No vote. The HMRC jobs were safe with a No vote.
The things we were told would go wrong with a Yes vote are going wrong anyway, the difference is we can't do anything about it.
Independent of Westminster. If Westminster could be totally reformed - a federal system of government with PR voting - I'd lose all interest in Scottish independence. But I don't believe that can possibly happen, and I think Westminster is so totally broken that the only option is for Scotland to go it alone, despite the risks.
PR wouldn't help the SNP...at all. Perhaps if the Scots stopped being so bloody provincial and tried to affect change ALL over the UK, say by forming a party which helps promote the values that seem to be cherished by them, something might get done. Tearing something apart in a desperate attempt keep small parts of it alive has never, ever worked.
Egypt, Rome, China, Palestine, Korea, Vietnam; In the immortal words of George Santayana.
PR wouldn't help the SNP...at all.
Fine with me, I'm not a SNP member.
Perhaps if the Scots stopped being so bloody provincial and tried to affect change ALL over the UK, say by forming a party which helps promote the values that seem to be cherished by them, something might get done.
Like, um, the SNP? How's our efforts to effect change across the UK going so far? Not all that well, as we're outnumbered by the Tories and a Labour party who can't decide if they're tearing themselves apart or abstaining on everything.
@big n daft And the jobs lost in the renewable energy industry? HMRC? The round of cuts approaching in council services, and social care looks pretty grim too? (and I mean the cuts already in the pipeline not ones to come in the autumn statement)
As for the question what is Scotland? I've been asking myself that for some time now
That's not really the point, though, is it? The point is we were told the shipyard jobs were safe with a No vote. We were told the steel jobs were safe with a No
But Trade union GMB Scotland welcomed the prime minister's announcement, stating that it would secure employment.
Jim Moohan, the union's senior organiser and chair of the Confederation of Shipbuilding and Engineering Unions said: "Once again this is great news for Clydeside, which has been rewarded for its continuing quality of work produced by the skills and experience heavily invested in by BAE Systems.
"Instead of the peaks and troughs which caused redundancies in the past, we now have continuity.
"This should be welcomed and not used for political mischief by those who have no knowledge in this area of industry and whose vision going forward was a dated Type 42 Destroyer to be the sole protection for Scottish waters in the event that the referendum question had answered Yes."
bencooper - Member
Like, um, the SNP? How's our efforts to effect change across the UK going so far?
Who have campaigned solely on the idea of an Independent Scotland, they have absolutely NO intention of attempting change in the UK, just division of it. What is needed is a UK party, not a Scottish National Party, which will take those ideals (which no one seems to be able to define) and offer them to a wider audience. Have the SNP done ANY of that? Anything at all?
Did Nicola Sturgeon help the hundreds of Scottish Steelworkers? She has the power, she has the budgetary controls...nothing, not even a measure to help local business.
RE Steelworkers and job losses, remember that THOUSANDS of english steelworkers also lost their jobs when hundreds of Scots did. Why did this happen? A Chinese economy that's shrinking, a European law which prevents the government from acting (this wouldn't change if Scotland were independent, as the SNP have vehemently stated that they'd be staying in the Euro) and high UK wages driven by a growing economy...
To be fair its what the vast majority of econonomists were saying all along. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone with a shred of intelligence.
Whats equally unsurprising is that the SNP leadership appears to have known that the numbers didn't add up, but were happy to put the livlihoods of its citizens at risk in its vain attempt to achieve its goals...
Scotland is a nation of over five million people, with good natural resources and decent infrastructure. It would cope fine with not being controlled by upper class loons trying to cling on to a crumbling British empire.
trying to cling on to a crumbling British empire.
😆
Which powers should she have used Daffy just to help you here's a list of devolved and reserved powers from the scottish parliament website
Devolved matters
Devolved matters include:
agriculture, forestry and fisheries
education and training
environment
health and social services
housing
law and order (including the licensing of air weapons)
local government
sport and the arts
tourism and economic development
many aspects of transport
Reserved matters
Reserved matters include:
benefits and social security
immigration
defence
foreign policy
employment
broadcasting
trade and industry
nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity
consumer rights
data protection
the constitution
I'm glad someone brought up Scotch independence. I think it's an idea that merits further discussion to see if something might come of it.
Free Yorkshire from the petty stupid narrow minded squabbles of Westminster and Holyrood. We are bigger better and only reliant on a good cup of tea.
konabunny - Member
I'm glad someone brought up Scotch independence. I think it's an idea that merits further discussion...
Yes, it's about time this was brought up. 🙂
But surely the Scots are too wee and stupid to be trusted with running their own country.
What we really need is rule by Etonian porcine necrofellatio enthusiasts under the wise guidance of corporate billionaires, and the opportunity to go killing foreigners in their own homes. We are truly blessed.
🙂
Free Yorkshire
Something the rest of the country can agree on, piss off and don't come back 😉
Perhaps we can find somewhere to put all the separatists then evict them, how about Essex?
Free Yorkshire
Yeah, good luck trying to get them to pay for it.
gordimhor - Member
Which powers should she have used Daffy just to help you here's a list of devolved and reserved powers from the scottish parliament website
Devolved matters
Devolved matters include:
agriculture, forestry and fisheries
[b]education and training
environment
health and social services[/b]
housing
law and order (including the licensing of air weapons)
local government
sport and the arts
tourism and economic development
many aspects of transport
Reserved matters
Reserved matters include:
benefits and social security
immigration
defence
foreign policy
employment
broadcasting
trade and industry
nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity
consumer rights
data protection
the constitution
Perhaps the same ones that Cameron used (Training (to free up £9m to help local businesses and Environment(by attempting to cut the environmental tariffs applied to high energy use) and the ones which the Italians used better Health and Social Services.
What we really need is rule by Etonian porcine necrofellatio enthusiasts under the wise guidance of corporate billionaires, and the opportunity to go killing foreigners in their own homes. We are truly blessed.
What we need is a new system, not just for Scotland, but for the UK, the Libdems were positioning themselves to be just that in 2010, but screwed themselves and the country (in the long term) by focusing on the short term wins offered through entry into a coalition. Don't get me wrong, some of the measures they managed to get enacted during their time in coalition were exceptional, but they sacrificed their party and the future to do it.
Proportional Represenation is where the Lib Dems would still gain the most and the tories would lose the most. Same goes for the SNP.
White Paper debunked - tick
Record in office - WIP
Proportional Represenation is where the Lib Dems would still gain the most
Although UKIP would gain far more.
Yeah, good luck trying to get them to pay for it
Try asking Harrogate, that's where all the rich buggers live. We've got nowt dahnere but oils int rurd.
It's not a question of whether some other party can do better it's a question of whether it's economically possible.
Spot on.
Best comment I've seen in a while on the state of the UK
[i]The UK is like a late middle aged man with impotence. He still strives for the glory days of his youth so he spends on expensive toys that he can't afford and lets the kids go hungry to compensate for the fact that he can't get it up any more.
This is a country which is about to go to war yet again, not because British military intervention would actually make any real difference. A few more bombs from the handful of planes that the RAF can spare won't change the outcome of the war in Syria. The reason that the UK is going to war is because it allows Davie Cameron to pose as an international statesman. It allows an aged superpower that's no longer a power in its own living room to pretend that it still matters in a world where it's long since been an irrelevance.
The only thing that the UK can still get up is the Prime Minister's tongue up the backside of the US President. It would be laughably pathetic if it weren't for the fact that people are going to die.[/i]
It's why we want out.
I'm waiting for the turn of the rest of the UK to vote on whether we want to hang on to Scotland or cut them loose.
That will be more illuminating.
[i]Scotland is a nation of over five million people, with good natural resources and decent infrastructure. It would cope fine with not being controlled by upper class loons trying to cling on to a crumbling British empire. [/i]
This.
All the people lining up to slag off the author and the paper etc - it's quoting a former SNP policy adviser saying that the SNPs independence model is broken. Now unless you think the quote is made up, isn't that quite remarkable and worthy of consideration?
This is what gets on my nerves with lots of Yes supporters, we keep hearing about how much you all want a new kind of politics etc but then you keep resorting to the same cheap ad homs, whataboutery and faulty-logic emotional arguments that you claim to be rejecting. Disappointing.
Now unless you think the quote is made up, isn't that quite remarkable and worthy of consideration?
Not really, everyone knew including the 'Yes' voters.
grum - Member
...This is what gets on my nerves with lots of Yes supporters, we keep hearing about how much you all want a new kind of politics etc but then you keep resorting to the same cheap ad homs, whataboutery and faulty-logic emotional arguments that you claim to be rejecting. Disappointing.
We're really just like anyone else in the UK, faults and virtues and all.
It's just that we find colonial rule a bit oppressive.
All the people lining up to slag off the author and the paper etc - it's quoting a former SNP policy adviser saying that the SNPs independence model is broken. Now unless you think the quote is made up, isn't that quite remarkable and worthy of consideration?
Not really, economic models change all the time. You could just as well argue that every country's economic model is now bust as a result of oil almost halving in value, yet they all keep ticking along....
It allows an aged superpower that's no longer a power in its own living room to pretend that it still matters in a world where it's long since been an irrelevance.
This statement is so wrong its depressing that people actually believe this.
We're really just like anyone else in the UK, faults and virtues and all.
It's just that we find colonial rule a bit oppressive.
Well I see lots of idealistic stuff about being freed from the colonial shackles and becoming a proud new progressive nation, but then it looks like it's all going to be based on the same spin and BS we've already got. Oh well.
but then it looks like it's all going to be based on the same spin and BS. Oh well.
and the nasty colonial powers will still be to blame
I voted for independence in the hope it could stop the tories from ripping essential public services to shreds here. I'm yet to see any argument against that.
To those that see the North Sea as a main part of Scottish finances, it is a nice bonus but by no means the majority of economic activity here, and were there to be appropriate investment (probably by a government that doesn't rip up all renewables subsidies overnight) we could have a flourishing green energy industry.
It's all irrelevant now, we're stuck in the union. If people in the UK vote to leave Europe but Scotland doesn't, I think there would be good reason to have another referendum on Scottish independence (Despite the SNP's similar levels of willingness to blame Brussels for everything)
If an industry is dependent upon subsidy, I struggle to see how it can be described as flourishing.
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It's why we want out.
Then why didn't you vote for it?
Democracy can be a right bitch can't it? 😆
If an industry is dependent upon subsidy, I struggle to see how it can be described as flourishing.
If an industry is critical to society, it is likely to be subsidised to some degree. Conventional power rightly is in order to ensure reliable supply. Being that renewables are dependent upon newer, less well developed technology, it is reasonable to assume that for now subsidies (probably greater than those for conventional power) will be required to achieve the development and encourage the private investment required. It may then flourish and provide an income stream to the country in the future.
So epicyclo, is that 37% thinking it's the biggest issue because it is or isn't happening. Perhaps 37% think that the constant nagging question and bickering is the issue. A once in a lifetime referendum thats what you need to put that issue to bed for the next you know generation.
To those that see the North Sea as a main part of Scottish finances, it is a nice bonus but by no means the majority of economic activity here, and were there to be appropriate investment (probably by a government that doesn't rip up all renewables subsidies overnight) we could have a flourishing green energy industry.
So we are relying on an industry that we don't yet have yet...what else? Finance is pretty strong in Edinburgh, but there was major doubt that that would have remained the case in an independent Scotland.
If an industry is dependent upon subsidy, I struggle to see how it can be described as flourishing.
exactly....
Like it or not the Indy economic arguement was weak at the time. Now even those who pulled it together are saying we'd have been stuffed.
If an industry is dependent upon subsidy, I struggle to see how it can be described as flourishing
I dunno, I reckon our arms industry could easily be described as flourishing right now, or at least very soon.
Dammit. A graph. And it's only page three.
*wanders off grumbling about declining standards*
Finance is pretty strong in Edinburgh, but there was major doubt that that would have remained the case in an independent Scotland.
If an industry is dependent upon subsidy, I struggle to see how it can be described as flourishing.
exactly....
What exactly is a massivle bailout of a failing bank if not a subsidy by a different name?