[Closed] The possible 2019 election thread.

I'll be voting for Vince (as usual).

I won't be voting for Pob  (as usual)

How will an election help May get her ridiculous proposal through Parliament?
She has said that she won't lead into any election, but she is a politician so will be lying.
After any election all we will do is start the arguments all over again.
With or without an election this "debate" is set to run for a couple more years....whichever side of the fence you are on.

The fault lies principally with Cameron and his ridiculous renegotiation that gave us 3/4 of diddly squat.

**** it man, just vote Green FFS, but this-

Could there be a lib lab pact with Watson in charge?

would be tolerable with a sprinkling of left progressives in it as well.

I'm against anything that has a possible outcome of Boris Johnson as PM.

Are labour happy to go into an election with Corbyn at the helm, could Corbyn stand down and just give the job to Watson?

No chance, Momentum have won. There's no way they're going to hand the party back. (Although it would be quite funny if they did - the dog that catches the car - we've tried leadership and we don't like it, can we go back to sniping from the sidelines?)

I've either vote Lib-Dem or these new independent bunch. I voted Labour last time but no way will I do so again whilst Corbyn continues. Clearly I won't vote Tory for a whole host of reasons, not least in letting an internal party squabble (Brexit) become the biggest "challenge" in our counties recent history.

You guys are lucky, at my last two local elections, there has only been two candidates, Conservative or UKIP (Mid Norfolk) which is like choosing which testicle you'd like to cut off with a rusty spoon.....

For me the best outcome would be Lab/Lib/SNP as a way to mediate the slightly mad elements in Labour and form a bit more consensus, it would reduce the impact of the Lab Leave/Lexit lot and help to move us to a firm remain even if Corbyn can't say it.

My constituency is a 3 way marginal
snp brock 19000
Labour Munro 17500
Tory 15000

This is a seat that was always safe labour until the SNP landslide. I have a real dilemma. Usually I vote to keep out the party I hate the most however in this case its problematic

Brock the incumbent probably has the best chance of winning again. However the woman is utterly vile, breaks promises to constituents, and is only in it for herself. No time at all for her. Not a huge fan of the SNP in general despite being pro independence

Munro the labour chap is a well known local councillor and fairly well thought of. However he is as a sitting councillor party responsible for the stat notice scandal in Edinburgh and if you think westminster labour are bad look into scots labour. They had a disgraceful anti snp pact with the tories at the last GE which resulted in 10 tory gains and gave May the largest party. without this we would have had a labour minority labour government. They have forgotten who the enemy are

tory - simply impossible - will never vote for these venal scum.

I think the only way out of this is to write to both the SNP and Labour candidates asking for their position on key topics and vote accordingly. However when I did this last time all I got was brushed off with platitudes from Munro and lied to from Brock

I do laugh at this "momenteum have won" nonsense

Momentum do not control the party. They are a loose grouping of grassroots members. If they really did control the party we would see a very different party. Not one deselection, not one part of the party under their control

Mike - SNP will NEVER go into coalition with labour. 1) they are hated by scottish labour and 2) thats their firm policy. They would do a confidence and supply deal tho

I do laugh at this “momenteum have won” nonsense

Momentum do not control the party.

They have their man in charge, and I have to say he needs to go if they want a majority in any election. He is electable to a point and proved that but he is never going to get enough over the line to lead.

Some of that is down to the BS in the papers and the lies, some of that is due to him being a bit of a bumbling idiot.

I'm safe Labour where I am and I will probably vote Lib Dem again.

I’m against anything that has a possible outcome of Boris Johnson as PM.

This, so much this. Or Rees-Mogg. Or Corbyn for that matter.

Watson has zero integrity and isn't fit to be an MP. Remember all those MPs / public figures that he outed as members of a VIP sex ring and whom were subsequently exonerated? Did he apologise - did he hell..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

The last thing we need is a Labour Party led by someone who spreads fake news, destroys the lives of others and then has nothing to see when proven wrong. We already have far too many MPs who do this.

Momentum came into being after Corbyn was elected leader. He is NOT their man at all indeed they are often at odds with him

Still doesn't make him less of a bumbling idiot at times though does it.

Momentum and it's members have actively supported him over others.

This is the point for the Labour party to decide if they want to be in power or not.

I'll be voting for my mate Matthew again.

Bristol North West here. Cracking young remainer Labour MP.

Not certain I could vote for Darren and have Corbyn take it as a vote for him as well.

Would the SNP like to do an outreach program south of the wall?

Libs or Independent Group.

Neither Labour or the Cons can be trusted - both have too strong a party within the. party

Watson has zero integrity and isn’t fit to be an MP. Remember all those MPs / public figures that he outed as members of a VIP sex ring and whom were subsequently exonerated?

I was starting to really rate him but I'd forgotten that. Yeah, I can't forgive that. My recollection is he didn't even go to the Police which is inexcusable. It means either he knew it was bollocks or the thought it was true and still didn't report it.

Momentum came into being after Corbyn was elected leader. He is NOT their man at all indeed they are often at odds with him

Erm... sorry, but you're talking shit.

From Wiki:

Momentum is a British political organisation, founded in 2015 by Jon Lansman, Adam Klug, Emma Rees and James Schneider. It has been described as a grassroots movement supportive of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. The organisation has polarised Labour politicians and journalists since its inception

They are after-all known as "Jeremy for Labour Ltd" at companies house.

Zippy unlikely scenario of labour beating conservatives, those that don't go the tory route usually go for the indie's (i'm down road form grayling as well), i'd be one of them and they just back the tories anyway. Are we not all hoping that Grayling steps aside after all the balls up that have been made? Though, no idea who would step in..?

While we're all back slapping about the Libs don't forget Vince Cable as leader was calling for a referendum on EU membership in 2007 ( https://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-cable-on-european-referendum-1609.html) and an in/out referendum was in the 2015 Libdem manifesto.

P jay - look at the timelines. Momentum came into being AFTER Corbyn became leader

Anyway - further to my above post about my dilemma in how to vote if a GE is held I have decide that its either labour or Green ( a wasted vote)
Brock simply is unfit to be an MP. Serial liar

so I have emailed Munro asking his views on various issues and will decide once I have got his answer.

P jay – look at the timelines. Momentum came into being AFTER Corbyn became leader

So what? Momentum are well established in the national executive and keeping Corbyn in place and will be choosing the next leader. The rules on nominations have been changed to make that possible. You can argue that's a good thing because the leader will be closer to the desires of the membership, but you can't claim it's not true.

The next leader will be from Corbyn's wing of the party. (...and since Corbyn is the very last of the 70's lefties I suspect that means he cannot give up the job, no matter how much he'd like to.)

Because what was said above is false as you now agree. Momentum do not control the party and Corbyn is not their puppet.

Not one single party I could back right now in UK GE. None. Zilch. And my remainer MP that beat the previous defector to the kippers, has now seemingly become a hard brexiteer.  Is this the UKIP infiltration and take over of the tories? And the MP knows exactly what is necessary to not be deselected?  Or just a calculated career progression towards getting a top job when the next cabinet reshuffle happens?

Keeping an eye on TIG though.  Lib Dems are virtually extinct - are they just keeping quiet waiting for the ConLab implosion? or are they really so extinct that they have no voice?

As an overseas voter, I've already had my paperwork explaining how I can vote in the upcoming EU elections 😉

All TIG will do is split the anti tory vote and keep them in power. Please do not vote for them. Remember the SDP that kept the tories in power.

Lib Dems are dead in most areas of the UK
All you can do is vote for the party most likely to keep the tories out

I’ll be voting for Vince (as usual).

Me too.

Yay! 2 of us 🤙🥳

We're in Skipton & Ripon - seat of the current chief whip, Julian Smith and it's one of the safest Tory seats in the country. (I've added full stops to align things)

Party.........., Name........., votes., percentage
Conservative..., Julian Smith , 36,425, 62.7
Labour........., Alan Woodhead, 16,440, 28.3
Green.........., Andy Brown..., 3,734., 6.4
Yorkshire Party, Jack Render.., 1,539., 2.6

No Lib-Dem candidate, in the 2015 election she won 4000 votes and in the 2010 the candidate won over 17,000 votes so a big collapse in the LD vote which probably why they didn't field a candidate in 2017 (the Lib Dems stood aside their candidate and instead encouraged supporters to vote for the Green Party).

Even if LD did field a candidate I can't see much chance of unseating Julian Smith.

Craven District, which includes Skipton, voted 52.8% leave, 47.2% remain in the EU referendum so pretty close to the national figure.

Labour marginal here, winning by 5% in 2017; but was conservative in 2015 when they won by 27 votes! I think i would have to vote labour as no other party comes close and our current MP seems active for local issues, but i highly regret giving a vote to Corbyn.

Can't see an election happening though and if it did I think we'd have another hung parliment

Interesting, to me this thread demonstrates that most people don't actually vote for candidates but the leader/party/tactically...

Not that this is 'wrong' as such but given how shaken everyone's faith in politicians is now, voters should maybe be scrutinising the candidates and their background rather than sticking to the old pattern...

Personally I know I won't be voting for our local (tory) incumbent, but where my vote does go is still up for discussion, I actually want to have a good long look at all of them.

All TIG will do is split the anti tory vote and keep them in power. Please do not vote for them. Remember the SDP that kept the tories in power.

Lib Dems are dead in most areas of the UK
All you can do is vote for the party most likely to keep the tories out

I'm sorry mate, you seem confident in Labour and Corbyn and there's nothing wrong with that, I have issues with his polices both stated and what I believe he would like to say, if only it didn't alienate moderate, centrist voters like me, but I shouldn't knock anyone for backing him or the current version of Labour.

However I've made a personal stance to NEVER vote tactically again, I will take a few moments to learn something about each person standing to be my MP and the party they represent and I will vote accordingly. The last few weeks have shown me that more than the leader or the government it's your local MP who actually looks after you.

I might actually vote Labour, my MP is a Labour MP and has been one of the shining lights of the remain movement in Westminster, but I guess she would be, our area has one of the highest remain margins of any in the UK. However if a TIG / Lib Dem candidate stands and promises to revoke A50 Day 1, without reservation or pause, then they might get my vote.

P- Jay - which would you rather - a tory or labour ( given thats the choice in most seats) a vote for anyone else oither than might let the tories in

As an aside - can you give me a single labour policy that is not centerist and moderate in terms of how this is considered across the world? Labour positions on most issues are actually firmly in the mainstream european social democratic tradition. Its a total lie put about by the right wing press that they are hard left. Its just they have moved from right of centre to left of centre
Fr ease here is a link to the last manifesto and to the BBC ( no friends of labours) analysis
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39933116

 I’ve made a personal stance to NEVER vote tactically again

It HAS to be this way if the two-party system is ever going to end. It's been said before, nut how many times have you heard "I'd vote for XXX if I thought they might win" and yet no one ever does so they never get into the position to win? Voters need to start looking beyond the immediate election and consider how a small increase in votes each time around can build into a winning position.

And TJ, saying you are pro-independence but going to vote Labour is like saying "I'm not a racist, but.."

Lolz at scotroutes. I am likely not to vote labour but its tricky. Brock is our SNP mp and is a serial liar unfit to be my rep. A really vile woman who is only in politics for herself. If it was Sturgeon I would vote for her without issue, Ditto our SNP MSP who is a good bloke. ( voting for the individual?)

I haven't voted labour for a decade now since they lost power at holyrood and started behaving like petulant children.

So I will see what answer I get from the labour bod, look at the polls. I will vote anti tory tactically if they look like possible winners. Last GE I voted for a young chap standing as an independent, as it was clear that only labour or SNP had a chance to win and I didn't much care which

Can someone explain to me what events would result in a GE?
Why would the tories do anything other than cling on and have a leadership contest instead?

P- Jay – which would you rather – a tory or labour ( given thats the choice in most seats) a vote for anyone else oither than might let the tories in

I no longer care about the colour of the rosette.

As an aside – can you give me a single labour policy that is not centerist and moderate

"we respect the results of the referendum" (or words to that effect). No moderate, centrist party would respect the result of a ref won by a tiny margin by cheaters and lairs based on empty promises that simply cannot be met.

If someone raises a vote of "no confidence" in Mays government and enough tories and / or DUP join the rest so may loses - not as unlikely as it sounds and only needs a simple majority. 2 tories have already said they would, two others have joined the independent group and Davies thinks 20 tories would vote no confidence in Mays government. The deluded breshitters seem to think that a GE with a brexishitter in charge of the tories would result in a tory majority then they can have the hard brexit they crave.

the other way is if May herself decides she wants a GE and can pursuade 2/3 of the house to vote for it.

Did anyone else receive a Conservative election leaflet through the post today?

Seems our local conservative MP has already started touting for votes...

It's a pretty easy one for me in Moray, currently we have the worse than useless Tory Douglas Ross, I'll be for whoever the SNP put up.

Craig Whittaker in Calderdale .A Tory with a majority of 609 over labour.Famous for being arrested for assaulting his son at a petrol station,re Tweeting "Vote Labour? I'd rather trust Jimmy Savile to babysit" and being a Mormon.Don't think he'll get much backing from the LGBT community or anyone else for that matter but at least he'll have god on his side.

tj - thanks for that. I still think both scenarios are extremely unlikely. The ERG might be mad, but I think they also know that staying in the conservative party and keeping it in power are the only way they'd get anywhere.

A few interesting points here

It'll be SNP again. Lamont (con) is a toadying horrible little man, according to his voting record. There was talk of him accepting a seat in the lord's to let Ruth have a safe seat for her rise to national Tory party. But I think she's seen sense.

I think the lad above underestimates how pissed off Labour remain voters are with Labour (I'm one).

My prediction is UKIP split the Tory vote and labour win....

Anyone who thinks Watson would get more votes as leader than Corbyn is crazy. All this "far left" sensationlism is silly when you compare labours policies to other countries and even against what people say they want (eg, privatisation, NHS spending etc) the majority of the public align with labour policies more than conservative but don't vote that way...

I think I'd have to hope TIG field a candidate in my area so I can vote for them. No matter how good a local labour candidate might be, I can't possibly do something that could put corbyn in power. If Kier Starmer was in charge then possibly.

I'm pretty centrist and it seems I'm like a lot of the population right now - failed on both sides. You ever got corbyn and his lot who seem to want so e kind of socialist/communist utopia that could never work, or an entirely disfunctional (at best) conservative party headed up by someone completely out of their depth.

UKIP will split Tories along with some indies especially in ERG seats - they don't really represent their locations in terms of the mad ideas in some areas - can see some very targeted attacks there.
Labour will be split by indies/TIG/Lib Dems especially in key remain seats - as above

I think the lad above underestimates how pissed off Labour remain voters are with Labour

I have no confidence Labour under the current leadership delivering anything other than a mess on this.