You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
Shite.
Woke up looked at the met office app and it showed N Wales as being cloudy but dry all day.
Quick pack, jump in the car and travel 2 hours and it's raining.
Look at the app again and now it's showing its going to rain all afternoon.
If they could actually do their job I wouldn't have wasted the fuel.
****ers.
I know it's hard to predict weather long term but Shirley they should be able to get the next day right 😠
eh ? if its the same day look at the rain radar 😕
I will do and shall no longer trust the MO to know what they're doing.
App has been uninstalled.
Use the percentages. Unless it's zero all day, overall there's a high chance of rain.
worth checking other weather forecasts too especially on the day...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68316887
You can still ride in rain though, right?
Surely it's just safer to assume that it's raining in Wales.
You can still ride in rain though, right?
Might invalidate frame warranty.
A lot of the wind apps have been getting it very wrong this month - like 10 knots wrong. I think its been a lot warmer than expected and thats busted all the models. But yes on the day/day before the rain radar is the best tool.
Yr.no is my go to weather, all use modelling and there will always be uncertainty. I think it’s unfair to blame a forecast especially given the pretty complex/unstable weather systems kicking around. Maybe buy a coat?
I have a theory on this (and a PhD in palaeoclimatology).
Met Office supercomputer forecasting is trained on decades of past data. But the parameters have shifted - there's more energy in the system now, former weather patterns aren't a good guide to how things will pan out anymore. "Past performance is [s]not[/s] no longer a guarantee of future returns".
Hence, Met Office - and all the other forecasters - are a bit shit these days.
If they could actually do their job
They're very good at it. You're talking about predicting the future in an extremely complex and chaotic system. You can't say how good they are if you have no idea what's actually involved in doing it or what's even possible.
If there's one thing that pisses me off (there's more than one actually) it's anti-scientific bollocks from people who have no idea.
All forecasts have been showing rain coming in today for the last few days, ahead of a weather warning for rain today and tomorrow?
I never rely on one forecast. I back that up with rain radar. I try to remember I'm not made of sugar and pack the right kit too.
They’re very good at it. You’re talking about predicting the future in an extremely complex and chaotic system. You can’t say how good they are if you have no idea what’s actually involved in doing it or what’s even possible.
This. Predicting precipitation time and percentage is the equivalent of me asking you not only to tell me not only the score of a particular football game in a month's time will be but also when will the go as be scored.
For future reference clouds often mean rain.
I’m still not sure what caused the trip to be wasted. It’s February, shit weather is expected, so just crack on?
I never use just one forecast if going out somewhere
Hence, Met Office – and all the other forecasters – are a bit shit these days.
I generally disagree with that.
I worked in the marine and offshore industries from 1990 until recently.
The standard of weather forecasting in the last 15 or so years is way better than it was when I 1st started out. In particular the detailed, paid for, site specific forecasts, are generally very, very good.
I still keep a close eye on the weather, generally speaking the Met Office are pretty accurate for 48 - 72 hours.
However, the last 8 months or so, they have been very poor compared to normal.
I find the Met office pretty good in general, but in middling autumn or winter weather (like today) I have to adjust my expectations of what precipitation there is. I think that’s because of our altitude +300m and the fact that we’re the first hills that weather hits from the Irish Sea we’re often sat in clouds: whilst not technically raining, the end effect is the same (ie waterproof needed.)
that said, another +1 for Yr.no. I find it even better than the Met office. And their 10 day forecast is pretty good too.
Also, OP you spent 4 hours in the car and didn’t ride, because of a bit of rain? It’s not even cold or windy and you’d have got wet anyway from all the standing water: everywhere is saturated at the moment. Suggest you grow a pair or invest in some wet weather gear.
BBC weather forecast (from as far back as Thursday) clearly showed a large block of rain moving into Wales from early afternoon today, there's even been weather warnings about it.
I had a nice ride from 9am or so through til lunchtime in North Wales, left just as the rain was starting. Trails were damp but no rain actually falling throughout the time I was riding.
Man goes riding in Wales and it rains Shocker!?!
I don't think I've ever ridden in Wales and it hasn't rained at some point during the day 😆
As above - look at the rain radar for incoming clouds; learn to read the forecast properly, look at the % chance and work out the odds; buy some proper wet weather gear, you can still ride in the rain you know?
Penmachno, mate, it’s NEVER wet there. Honest.
Capel Curig is one of the wettest places in the UK, I have been paddling in Anglesey in bright sunshine and people in the Mountains of Eryri are bathed in torential rain, that's why they have waterproofs. 🙂
Haha said the same thing earlier. Was told Manchester would be dry today. Was it hell.
But they can't even get NOW right most of the time.
0% chance of rain, as you look outside and it's walloping down.
Was told Manchester would be dry today.
Its Manchester - dry is relative.
This feels like a thread the OP may wish they hadn't started.
Tell me about.
A Quick Look last night said it would overcast this morning, sunshine early afternoon and rain late afternoon.
Walked the dog this am and it was dull overcast, then walked down street this afternoon lovely sunny day like a spring day and as we were walking home late afternoon we just got home before it rained.
But they can’t even get NOW right most of the time.
0% chance of rain
It never says 0% chance - always < 5%
Start a gofundme to upgrade their £1.2bn supercomputer?
It never says 0% chance
Cop out of epic proportions.
I've noticed MO has been less reliable recently.
Rain arriving 4-5hrs earlier than forecast only a few hours before, sub 5% chance of rain when it's tipping it down, temperatures way out etc.
Frustrating for sure.
FWIW they got it right today in Bristol 👌
Cop out of epic proportions
But we live in a country with a myriad of microclimates.
I live in a river valley, with a highish plateau 10km north of us, sea 10km to the south, and 200-300m ridges either side.
It can be raining on one side of the valley and dry on the other, or mist/drizzle coming down in the north, but the breeze from the sea keeping it static over the middle part of the valley.
Impossible to forecast all of that in such a small area 😁 so we often get the all-in-one symbol...
🌦 with a 20-30% chance of rain.
I see that and dress for the wet, but am pleasantly surprised if it's dry.
Be interesting to know what the op does for work and how often he ****s up.
Here in the Rhondda the Met Office forecasts are pathetic - they are often forecasting the correct weather the day before and the on the day they actually change it to something which is wrong.
The BBC is generally more often correct, and Google weather seems pretty decent.
I normally look at Apple, Google, BBC and the Met Office and see if there is a consensus.
Dark Skies used to be very accurate some years ago but then it wasn't so much, then Apple bought them.
Also, OP you spent 4 hours in the car and didn’t ride, because of a bit of rain?
Who said anything about riding?
I made the trip mainly to walk on the beach with my dogs - not to ride a bike!
Yes, I did still walk them - and got soaked despite fairly appropriate clothing - but I wouldn't have bothered if the met office app* had actually said it was going to rain. I would have stayed at home where I believe it's been dry.
* It's probably not really the MO I'm disappointed with, it's the fact that their app seems to be a bit shit in that at 8:30am it says everything's dry all day and then by 11:30 it decides it's going to rain from 11am all day.
When I looked this morning on the Met Office App, it was predicting rain to come in late afternoon and evening. Which is what happened where I live.
Don't get me started on the BBC weather App, that is totally inaccurate and shitee.
and got soaked despite fairly appropriate clothing
Did you forget your brolly? You can't blame the Met Office for that.
I use a mix of yr.no, met office and BBC. BBC is by far the worst. I also look at the rain radar and windly. On the day, it's all about the rain radar really.
Be interesting to know what the op does for work and how often he **** up.
Bomb Disposal
Terrible choice for someone who's colour blind
Surely it’s just safer to assume that it’s raining in Wales.
SOP at Greenman Festival at Crickhowell for the weather: Is it raining? Looks around, yes/no. Will it stop raining? Looks over shoulder, yes/no. Delete as applicable.
I used to use WeatherPro and paid a subscription for hourly forecasts, then Apple bought Dark Skies, tweaked it and now I get forecasts at least as good as WeatherPro and I don’t have to pay a subscription anymore. What I always do, though, is check the precipitation radar for hourly and 12 hourly because that gives a much better idea of what the weather is going to do. FWIW, Apple uses Met Office data for U.K. forecasts, data sources for everything in the Weather App can be easily found in the link right at the bottom of the main app page.
I use a mix of yr.no, met office and BBC. BBC is by far the worst.
The BBC now use data from DNT Group GMBh, parent company who produces the WeatherPro app, or used to. I also use Windy sometimes as well, but mainly I stick with Apple’s Weather app, it’s at least as accurate as any other, mainly because it’s local forecast is from locally sourced data, rather than European or American, and the BBC do show the difference between the European data and American when it comes to the weather, much of which is coming across the Atlantic, following the Gulf Stream and the Jet Stream.
Of course, you could always use a piece of seaweed hanging outside, or see whether cows are lying down or standing up.
Red skies in the morning and at night are actually quite accurate, along with high cirrus clouds.
Yer takes yer choice, etc…
It was dry with me until 1530 in South Wales as predicted, armed with that knowledge I went out for a ride at 1100, damp but no rain.
As some have said I checked with two apps the Met App and Accu Weather App to confirm.
BBC is by far the worst.
The daily "Weather for the Week Ahead" on iPlayer is pretty good. Bit more detailed than anything else.
Google Weather on my phone seems pretty accurate too most of the time.
Problem with places like Wales, Lake District etc is it can be chucking it down in one valley and bright sunshine in the neighbouring valley.
I’ve noticed MO has been less reliable recently.
Me too. For rain at least, still pretty good for temps and winds. Although they're not the sort of binary thing you notice like raining/not raining!
Look at the pressure charts, available in the met office app, or elsewhere. Learn to interpret them.
Look at the rainfall radar if it’s the next few hours you’re bothered about.
Don’t rely just rely on anything that simply gives the ‘happy sun’ and ‘gloomy cloud’ emojis.
Pack a raincoat for Wales, whatever the above says. And imo don’t drive for hours to walk the dog!
It’s a forecast, that’s why it’s called a forecast.
AccuWeather seems to be pretty much spot on for me / my location but I'll also look at Ventusky as it's possible to look at a few weather models and see where they overlap and where they diverge.
Funniest thread I've read in ages.
Do people really need/want spoon feeding this much?
"...but the app says..."
It's February, in the UK, weather is complicated, make your own mind up.
Terrible choice for someone who’s colour blind
I'm bloody colour blind (massively so) but when I chose to work I work with wood. Not allowed in the paint shop on my own.
I live in North Wales, where I live it’s been dry all day.
Missus was visiting her family in Anglesey and it was pouring down with really low cloud. Her drive home was through just about every weather system we have. We certainly don’t bother with weather apps here. The mountains and the sea mean that the weather isn’t exactly predictable.
Be interesting to know what the op does for work and how often he **** up.
I create mobile apps!!
actual chance of rain if I go out for a ride = 100%
actual chance of rain if I stay in = 0%
I use putting on my waterproof jacket on a bike ride as the most reliable guide to the likely level of precipitation.
The greater the time spent putting my waterproof jacket on during a bike ride the more likely the rain will stop when I have finally got it all zipped up and I'm ready to go again.
I did a 200km audax in Wales today. It was forecasted to be mostly dry. It wasn't. I put my waterproof coat on.
There's a lot of ill-informed opinion on this thread.
Tldr: some people aren't as clever as they think they are and it's very complicated
There’s a lot of ill-informed opinion on this thread.
Tldr: some people aren’t as clever as they think they are and it’s very complicated
You've hit upon the STW Near-Universal Post - one that can be applied to almost any thread on this site.
Cop out of epic proportions.
You're demanding the impossible and getting all wound up when it doesn't happen. Honestly this is offensively stupid.
The Met Office are as good as it gets. If you think you can do better, crack on. Why not let us all know how you plan to improve the current state of the art in forecasting?
It’s the UK. The weather changes on a whim, just deal with it
Unfortunately the weather doesn't look at the forecast 😕
At this time of year, it doesn't take much of an atmospheric difference to turn grey and overcast into mizzle or outright rainy. (Source: Pissed it down all over me on a supposedly 'dry' ride yesterday in the Dales).
This Feb has been really unusual in terms of temperature, which means there have been some unusual movements in our weather systems, and you can tell it has messed with their models a bit. 5-day Met Office has actually been slightly more accurate than BBC around here (BBC has basically forecast rain for the next three days non-stop, and it hasn't done that).
I generally look at all of them and take an average. Or look out of the window in the morning.
Have a look at the forecast map. Sometimes there's rain moving through all day. All it takes is a ten mile error in the path of the edge of the weather system that is hundreds of miles to make the difference between rain and sun in a specific location. The Met Office seems to always get the general set up right, just that sometimes rain misses or hits a specific location.
You need to look at the maps and preferably listen to the video forecasts that explains what's going on. If you just type in a location and look at the icon you're always going to be disappointed in a temperate location like ours.
My closest weather station is about 200 meters lower elevation than where I live. Often get forecasted cloud or rain, but actually get mist and fog. I guess I’m in the cloud. Go further up the mountain and it’s a sunny day.
We were forecast rainmageddon yesterday afternoon…..not a drop.
I was at Brenin yesterday, never rained once, where were you hoping to go?
Weather forecast models do include current climatology
As an alternative view, my phone popped up "expect rain at about 9pm" the other day, sometime around 5pm.
9:05pm, it started raining.
The ability to forecast rainfall with an accuracy of 5minutes, several hours out, to my precise location is a chuffing miracle of modern science and technilogy. occasionally the models are a bit innacurate, or the weather system is skirting you rprecise location. They are rarely totally wrong.
Plus as above, its february, in Wales. Assume rain.
There’s only a 3% of rolling a double 6 and my brother did it twice!! How can that be right??
Statistics just can’t be trusted these days
Reminds me of this:
"Bomb Disposal
Terrible choice for someone who’s colour blind"
I now want to start a band called The Colour Blind Bomb Disposal Unit
(apparently the Weather Girls has already been taken......)
The thing that gets me is the number of times the met office forecast will be right the day before, and often agree with the bbc forecast, and then on the day their forecast changes to something that turns out wrong, whereas the bbc forecast remains the same as yesterday and turns out to be correct. You would think that the forecast would get more accurate as the time horizon approaches.
And the Met Office spent a ton of money on a new Cray not that long ago, seemingly so they can also run everybody else’s models for comparison, as you see on their deep dives on YT.
It looks like Googles AI forecasting is looking promising and has outperformed conventional forecasting recently, maybe they should concentrate on providing lots of data points for it and see how it goes.
I remember Dark Skies being uncannily accurate for the weather in Horley, Surrey on the day I got married - like saying ‘rain in 14 minutes, stopping 11 minutes later’, so we got the jazz band inside and sure enough rain arrived in 14 minutes, and stopped 11 minutes later. Seemed to be able to do that precision a lot then. Wasn’t so good in recent years for some reason.
There are a lot of new AI models out there and some of them are demonstrating good "skill", i.e. they work well, for 7-14 day forecasts. Look on the ECMWF website for more details. A couple of companies are claiming very high levels of accuracy if you pay them lots of £. It could be smoke and mirrors or excellent, time will tell.
The Met office doesn't run other peoples models in that way as it is computationally expensive. The take model outputs from other agencies like GFS, ARPEGE and model those data sets. They also look at lots of reanalysis data too, to perform hindcasts to assess model skill/suitability.