[Closed] The Isolation of Russia

Yeah, I raised this way back on the main Ukraine thread. Ideally, there needs to be an exit strategy for sanctions (other than complete withdrawal). Thing is, it could never be openly talked about.

Due, why do you think this won't get shut down within about 10 minutes and they'll tell you to post in the main thread?

But also, yes. Welcome to the something akin to rebuilding the Berlin wall.

We will adapt.
We will have to. Get ourselves off Russian fossil fuels, Russian wheat, etc, etc. We will, eventually, be able to fill the gaps, it will only be a short term (10yrs maybe?) problem for the West. No one misses trade with Iran or NK.
More of a problem might be having a very belligerent country with that many nuclear arms. NK has 7 IIRC, and they are a pain. Russia has a few thousand times that many. Somehow they are going to be have to be got rid of, I have no idea how. Can you image NK with that sort of power at their disposal?

It means we're ("The West") essentially at war with Russia. Another cold war (at the moment), but could quite easily go hot.

I'm not an expert but the USD/Ruble rate halved in 2014 after Putin's previous adventure and never really recovered.

This is like that only even more so.

Destruction of Russian power, wealth and prosperity on an absolutely epic scale.

Welcome to the something akin to rebuilding the Berlin wall.

So long as it's on the RF border that's fine with me.

Maybe it will limit their ability to influence social media in such a harmful way ?

Ideally, there needs to be an exit strategy for sanctions (other than complete withdrawal).

I agree.
However, I think this has shattered any confidence international companies have about investing in and operating Russia. Even if sanctions are removed, there's no returning to what Russia had before. The damage is done.

The damage is done.

For a while. There will be a need to continue and expand on several international efforts; climate change, space, etc.

Thanks for starting a separate thread on the subject as certainly needs discussed away from the Ukrainian thread.

I really hope there are some clever brains in the Western Governments who are working out how this all ends. I really don’t think Ukraine can militarily defeat Russia in the sense of being able to force them from the country. I also don’t think we can expect Putin to completely back down just because of sanctions. We therefore have to deal with the fact that Putin is going to get something out of this. The compromise is how much he gets. It’s also the case that we now realise just how much Putin has been at ‘war’ with the West & it’s pretty clear that we have to set ourselves and our economies up so that we are not vulnerable to any further Russian adventures.

I really hope there are some clever brains in the Western Governments who are working out how this all ends.

I'm worried too because we don't seem to have much of a long term plan in what we do beyond platitudes about 'democracy' and 'human rights', which incidentally has wreaked havoc on places like Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq.

What's the end goal here as you say? These sanctions and boycotts seem more performative than instrumental even though they are quite massive. The history of sanctions isn't very effective to the ends of regime change.

We seem to be muddling into a proxy war in Ukraine where we pour in arms and money to prop up a local kleptocracy and make a desperate Russia bleed.

I really don’t think Ukraine can militarily defeat Russia in the sense of being able to force them from the country

The Afghans did... And the US too.
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The Ukrainians probably can't win a pitched battle but they can make the place very, very difficult to hold. It either has to be so costly for the Russians that they decide they have made their point and withdraw or, more likely, they need to hold on long enough for there to be a change of regime in the Kremlin. The more sanctions are imposed on Russia the more likely either of these things become.

However, I think this has shattered any confidence international companies have about investing in and operating Russia.

That may be true but a side-effect of shutting our Russia and their USD reserves is to make everyone else slowly dump the USD. Why hold USD as a reserve if the US is willing to hold them hostage in this way?

they need to hold on long enough for there to be a change of regime in the Kremlin.

Better the devil you know sometimes. Regime change has rarely resulted in cuddly western-friendly liberals instituting an idealised athenian democracy. Especially in Russia, this isn't going to happen, and it certainly won't be pro-western thugs which is normally what you actually get when US 'democracy' is installed.

I don’t think Putin will last. Age is against him now, rumours of health issues. Russia likes a strong leader. Plus the elite are now finding their mobility restricted and the pockets hit. Russian army is also worried people are starting to question their power and effectiveness. I think a lot of people believed the Russian army was all mighty and it’s starting to look ineffective and underfunded. That does not look good but a change of leadership and companies will be clamouring re establish connections.

Really I'm not sure how Russia could ever co-exist peacefully with the rest of the world. The only reason it works as one country apparently is huge centralisation of power, being a police state, exporting oil, and subsidising its vast non-European territory.

Maybe Putin's successor can be a good dictator and keep his shit within Russia's own borders knowing we'll leave him alone. Perhaps he'll have to, with China's hand up his arse.

If the war ends and Putin goes, the causes of Putin will probably remain and I expect Russia will forever continue in its role as a thorn in the side of the rest of the world.

Why hold USD as a reserve if the US is willing to hold them hostage in this way?

Yep, the world is watching the cards we play and the tricks we pull, and will be developing their mitigations before trying anything they have their minds on.

Russia likes a strong leader

How long did Brehznev hang on?

I really hope there are some clever brains in the Western Governments 

You're new here right? 😆

( the world)

I don’t think Putin will last. Age is against him now, rumours of health issues. Russia likes a strong leader. Plus the elite are now finding their mobility restricted and the pockets hit.

There is a video of him greeting Lukashenko where it appears that he has something going on the right side of his body. Hand shaking then a hesitant step. Parkinson's was suggested.
On the second thing, the Russian oligarchs are nothing without him. So while they are losing assets, these are nothing compared to the value of the relationship with him. He is the reason they are rich (and continue to be rich) in the first place. So the oligarchs triggering any coup or similar just won't happen.

We seem to be muddling into a proxy war in Ukraine where we pour in arms and money to prop up a local kleptocracy and make a desperate Russia bigger kleptocracy bleed.

FTFY

Ideally, there needs to be an exit strategy for sanctions (other than complete withdrawal)

Why? This has to be the West's red line otherwise what's next (unlikely to be a NATO country for sure but there's non-NATO countries in his sights). Previously the West has held back on sanctions (at least ones that have a major impact) so as not to rock the boat and risk an escalation but we had to react with Ukraine and now that we have we can't be the ones to back down - Russia has to withdraw from Ukraine (likely not involving the Crimea though) before sanctions are eased let alone lifted.

China and India and the OPEC countries will still trade with Russia, in fact the USA and Western Europe are the only ones that won't. Oil, gas and food production will talk louder than any concerns about dealing with Russia. We will be left with an enemy on our doorstep unfortunately; and I mean doorstep, he will be looking at the old soviet block and wondering what NATO will actually do.

More of a problem might be having a very belligerent country with that many nuclear arms. NK has 7 IIRC, and they are a pain. Russia has a few thousand times that many. Somehow they are going to be have to be got rid of

My hopefully irrational fear is that Russia get caged animal syndrome and start lashing out, taking everyone else down with them.

This is an interesting article

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/western-planes-worth-13bn-stranded-in-russia-analysts-say/

I read another article saying that these 589 planes worth up to $13Bn could potentially be "nationalised" by the Russian Govt as a punitive response to the West.

Cuba has done pretty well on the whole with sanctions, even after the USSR stopped supporting them. However The Russian people are now used to western consumer goods and Russia has no manufacturing base to replace that. Russia doesn’t really make anything. If China step in to help they will want something in return and Putin will not want to be a Chinese vassal state.

How long did Brehznev hang on?

Becuase it probably suited the inner communist cabal at the time that he did.

I read another article saying that these 589 planes worth up to $13Bn could potentially be “nationalised” by the Russian Govt as a punitive response to the West.

Well good luck to them keeping them in the air because Boeing and Airbus have stopped selling parts to Russia.

It'll be a Pariah state like North Korea. Except the people will have tasted 30 years of western consumerism. New iron curtain.
Putin will only get 100% in the next election.
Europe will will totally reinvent itself.

I read another article saying that these 589 planes worth up to $13Bn could potentially be “nationalised” by the Russian Govt as a punitive response to the West.

Most of those jets are leased from.... Chinese companies. So they'll be screwing their besty over AND blowing any chances for anyone in the world leasing them planes (or much else) in the future.

As mentioned, they won't be worth much anyway as they won't have had all their incredibly strict flight maintenance and checks done (can't remember the name of the official certifications) as they can't get spares for them. I wouldn't want to travel on one of those jets even a few months from now.

The reality we are seeing is that Russia is only a world power due to its nukes and mineral resources. Its economy is tiny and hollowed out by corruption. It's got a rotten core.

It's a grand palace built on shifting sands onto of a swamp.

It's a hell of a lot worse than's been postulated. It's relatively easy to sanction Russia. If China takes Taiwan the rest of the world couldn't really sanction them. Who makes all the stuff? Blue collar jobs have evaporated in the West.

^^ Very true, though America has said it will intervene if China invade.

I suspect China is also watching the resistance of a well motivated, if smaller, army upon one fighting for a paycheck.

Thirdly, it's evident that it too didn't suspect the West would respond with such unity. Anyway, China has all the time in the world, in relative terms, to wait till it has little to fear from the West

Sorry to go off topic.

My view is that such sanctions will only push Russia towards China, hence the effectiveness is questionable. I don't think they are "surprised" of the sanctions or unity of the West at all.

Sanctions are also impacting on all ordinary Russians that are not involved in the decision to invade Ukraine. The more they suffer the more that might feel hard done by the West. Bear in mind the propaganda will eventually change the people's mind if people find life hard to continue their daily life. However, perhaps some sanctions could be put in place but not cut them off entirely to avoid pushing Russia towards China.

The best approach to deal with current situation is still negotiation ...

We seem to be muddling into a proxy war in Ukraine where we pour in arms and money to prop up a local kleptocracy and make a desperate Russia bigger kleptocracy bleed.

Out of interest I googled Ukrainians current corruption outlook. I can't really find anything concrete but it would appear that its getting better?

What i did find though was that Zelenskyy won the first Ukranian Dancing with the Stars.

Are we going to basically end up with a mutant North Korea on our doorsteps?

Yes, until and unless the regime collapses.

For all that N Korea is a bit of a basket case, it hasn't been invading any neighbours recently.

It's not an ideal situation but it seems to me that this is the best achievable outcome currently, and NATO and the EU are playing the situation pretty well. The main uncertainty is just how long a time scale it plays out over.

(And yes, I'm aware quite how heartless it must seem to see a country getting the shit bombed out of it, and say it's going "pretty well". The question is, what better alternative is there? I don't see anything credible at the moment.)

Pretty much the only thing that unites China and Russia is the mutual desire to upset the 'Western' global hegemony.

Outside of that there are huge points of tension with no obvious solution.

If Russia defaults on its debts, as it looks very likely to do, China's banks will be hit very hard at a time where they're still reeling from the collapse of Evergrande.

In the long term Russia either ends up subservient to China or in conflict with it, neither are hugely appealing.