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Did someone say fixed?
it's from the telegraph.
which means it has a teensy-weensy-hint of eurosceptic bias...
It's actually referring to a Citibank report written by a europhile.
italy and spain kinda ok, ireland just about, Greece so small no one cares.
don't seem that bad to me.
{tannoy} BINNERS TO THE FORUM BINNERS TO THE FORUM[/TANNOY]
Yes written up by
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is the international business editor of the Daily Telegraph. A long-time opponent of the EU's constitution and monetary union, he was the Europe correspondent in Brussels for the Telegraph from 1999 to 2004. Wikipedia
I think the point will still stand.
Citibank are ace at predictions as well and working the market, we really should listen to their predictions!
Citigroup suffered huge losses during the global financial crisis of 2008 and was rescued in November 2008 in a massive stimulus package by the U.S. government.[12] On February 27, 2009, Citigroup announced that the United States government would take a 36% equity stake in the company by converting US$25 billion in emergency aid into common stock with a US Treasury credit line of $45 billion to prevent the bankruptcy of the largest bank in the world at the time.[13] The government guaranteed losses on more than $300 billion troubled assets and injected $20 billion immediately into the company.
They weern't unique in screwing up badly.
Feeling from Spain is that we've hit the bottom and things are slowly starting to look up - my guess is that if the country was going to implode it would have done so already.
I'm sure there is rejoicing in the streets at the 0.01% rise in GDP.
my guess is that if the country was going to implode it would have done so already.
Hear Hear.
Ohno .... why don't you sell it... go on ... a way to profit from all your doom mongering.
Come back in a year tell us how you got on
Depends if that Peston bloke on the BBC opens his mouth on the topic. If he does, then it's guaranteed doom.
They weern't unique in screwing up badly.
Good point the list of economist/bankers/experts whse words we should not take too seriously is indeed very long
They've been announcing it's imminent collapse since long before it came into existence.....
If there is the political will to keep it going, then it will carry on regardless.
The Euro will continue to be an on-going disaster, and money-pit, until they address the fundamental flaws in the whole set up. But since Angela Merkel was just re-elected on a platform of changing nowt. And if you were Germany, why would you change owt? When you're still a massive net winner despite the ongoing (and it will continue to be ongoing) bailouts.
Its an absolute car crash. And will continue to be a car crash until someone addresses the problems they're so studiously continuing to ignore
Is that ok for you JY? 😉
the poor telegraph have been telling us how the eurozone is doomed for years, fortunately no one listens to them, outside of ukip
Its an absolute car crash. And will continue to be a car crash until someone addresses the problems they're so studiously continuing to ignore
There is a lot of focus (and hate) on the euro because it is new, but it performs exactly like all the other currencies, has periods of strength and weaknesses, and gets political support when required.
It's not as if the dollar or the gbp have outperformed it in these years of supposed disaster when we are constantly told it is drawing close to death.
Is that ok for you JY?
I shall post you a strudel as a measure of my ironic thanks 8)7
As others note it is a political construct and it will survive as long as there is political will. The objections are largely political dressed up as economic.
Its not a disaster if you're German. Its bloody great in fact! Its exactly what it was designed to be.
You may have a slightly different view of the currency if you're in one of the disastrously contracting economies of Southern Europe. Now well and truly owned by Germany, with no end in sight. You may well be asking why you're still being asked/told to keep subsidising German exports. I know I would be.
MLeh they have also thrown a lot of money their way and do you really think everything would be rosey there without the german economy bank rolling them?
Its some different problems and solutions within a single currency but it absence does not remove the basic problem whihc is they have no ****ing money
I blame those exploding solarstorm x2 batteries and chargers for this...
Surely we should be blaming Thatcher?
MLeh they have also thrown a lot of money their way
Its a miniscule amount compared to how much the German economy has benefitted (and continues to benefit) from the rest of the continent underwriting its exports. I suppose they must look at it as a sort of tax on their continued economic health.
Unfortunately this is probably the only thing we can't blame Thatcher for. Sod it! Its Thatchers fault!
Brickonomics- the length of the current economic problems won't be defined by debt, or growth, or currencies, or anything else of the sort- they'll be dictated by the patience of the people expected to pick up the tab.
The only question is whether somehow or other we get things sorted out (and there's many different things to sort about, don't obsess about debt) before that day. Which seems pretty damn unlikely.
To quote me, eventually it becomes impossible for someone to tell us that our kids have to spend their lives paying off the debts of our parents, without getting hit in the head with a brick. And bricks to the head will seem a lot more real than numbers in a spreadsheet.
Course, we don't know what changes this will bring about. Brickproofing or change.
Surely we should be blaming Thatcher?
Works for me!
So wait.. just as our economy starts to recover, the Eurozone and the US start to nosedive. Great.
It would be very churlish (and not recommended) to ignore Buiter's comments simple because they are reported in the Torygraph and he works for Citi. Would you do the same when he worked at the EBRD? He is a distinguished economist with a particular expertise in Europe. He is also pro-European. So whether you are a europhile or a europhobe like Ambrose-Pritchard it makes sense to listen to what he says.
For the Germans, it's not a one way ticket. Yes in relation to the rest of Europe their economic performance is strong but what is the counter to a current account surplus? A capital account deficit. And where is the deficit linked to? Largely the rest of Europe. And who does it affect? The German banks, government and tax payers. Wonder why some German banks are running scared on Draghi's next round of bank stress tests or why bank lending and assets in Germany and elsewhere continue to shrink?
The debt dynamic stuff he talks about is not opinion it's based on straightforward identities. That's why its silly to ignore what he says.
The Germans cannot be complacent either, There have been significant changes in the relative cost competitiveness of different European economies over the past few years. The policies (oddly supported by the left) of combing severe wage deflation and high unemployment now mean that many S European economies have restored their competitiveness in terms of unit labour costs.* Perhaps the left now believe that the cost of unemployment was "a price worth paying" like the Tories before them?!? I doubt the folk on the street of Lisbon, Madrid and Athens agree though. Either way, the problem of being uncompetitive has now been partly addressed. Now if they can get their public, private, household and corporate finances under control and the banks working, who knows what might happen?
* there's a good report written by a another pro-European economist on this topic last week. But since he works for a French bank which had a tough crisis perhaps we should ignore that too?!?
Did someone say fixed?
Did they? I thought the optimists were just ignoring the problem.
When do we get cheap ski holidays?