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like it or not, governments need to engage with the taliban.
They did, hence why we are all here, they made a deal and the Taliban have held up their end by saying that Afghanistan will not be used to harbor terrorists, allow women to work and go into education, so all good unless you are an Afghan citizen but it should be clear by now that no one cares about them.
I don't claim to have any idea of what should be done but we are just watching a horrible slow motion crash. You know the mistake has been made as body's smash against metal and concrete.
We are living though a horrible ear in history and watching a new Starling take over Afghanistan and start to kill thousands whom they don't agree with or who question them or they perceive to be the slightest threat.
This going to be looked back on with the same disgust as the Rwandan genocide and Balkans but on a bigger scale.
Will there be a resistance movement bumping off the local Taliban representative?
The place is awash with guns,should be easy enough to do.
Will the yanks send a cruise missile to the top blokes palace as soon as everyone is out?
Easier to bomb a palace than a cave.
This going to be looked back on with the same disgust as the Rwandan genocide and Balkans but on a bigger scale.
Yeah, but it'll be easier to ignore and dismiss. Oh look a plan for a tunnel under the Isle of Man.
Rwanda and 'The Balkans' both happened when the 'West' had populations that occasionally gave a shit about what happened outside their home town.
Will there be a resistance movement bumping off the local Taliban representative?
It’s looking like a lot more than resistance. More likely a full scale civil war. Or a number of smaller regional civil wars.
There was a regional expert on Newsnight the other night saying there are a lot of regional warlords with no love for Taliban who are also armed to the teeth. They're not taking too kindly to the Taliban declaring themselves a national government.
The Taliban are being portrayed as all-conquering, but there are still large areas of the country run as personal fiefdoms by these regional warlords where the Taliban have had no more success occupying than the Americans or the Russians before them
Would anyone bet against it dissolving into the same chaos as Iraq and Syria, with outside powers also fighting proxy wars?
Marina does it again nailing 'Hard Man' Dominic Raab for what he is.
A total prat. A multi level bellend.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/20/dominic-raab-foreign-secretary-global-britain
There's a lot of people got used to making a lot of money through corruption and or drugs, the Taliban made great progress in stamping or at least controlling both of those so even if the big guys have run off to Dubai or ****stan or wherever someone will be eager to take their place and fight, how well they'll succeeded is anyone's guess.
The Taliban are being portrayed as all-conquering, but there are still large areas of the country run as personal fiefdoms by these regional warlords where the Taliban have had no more success occupying than the Americans or the Russians before them
That's how Afghanistan runs and why they 'won' so quickly. The local people made that call that overall the Taliban were stronger sono but the locals still call the shots and always have. Working in Afghanistan involves having relationships with all of the groups
As long as you have acceptance and no alternative to Sharia law the general population will rely on it on a local rural way, it's fast and effective on a village by village basis and like any western legal system, controls populations.
I don’t know if this has already been posted but a very informative Twitter post collection from a journalist
https://universalcreditsuffer.com/2021/08/21/6668/
Just another example of the unmanaged decline of the Western powers.
The global stepchange since the end of WW2 has been slow but steady. The US is no longer the global enforcer (we dont even register on a global scale) judging a Country and its importance by its GDP is no longer practical.
If you stand back there are many forces at play and many have no affiliation to the concept of a Nation State, china/saudi all play this game and Putin despite his posturing has more challenges than most on his borders.
Bidens policy appears to be a return to traditional US isolationism without the Trump madness. North America including Canada can live within this bubble while taking revenue in from overseas via tech and selling goods/materials.
I think this new world post Kabul presents huge problems for the UK outside the EU. Our old alliance with US is probably finally gone. We are looking a bit lost in the worlds media and the Tory party is uncomfortable.
Strange that it took Afghanistan to bring some of this into the light.
Just another example of the unmanaged decline of the Western powers.
Declines don't tend to be managed, the people filling the space tend to be impatient.
I think this new world post Kabul presents huge problems for the UK outside the EU. Our old alliance with US is probably finally gone.
The alliance with the US is still there, it's just been oversold for decades. It's always been imbalanced.
We are looking a bit lost in the worlds media
The royals will have another kid, then the headlines change.
and the Tory party is uncomfortable
It's uncomfortable anyway, the former red wall seats have changed the centre of gravity.
Once we've sorted put all the geo political, imperialist and theological issues we're still left with a country that is so divided along tribal lines that future conflict is inevitable.
99% of the ANA we're from the Northern tribes, attempts we're made to recruit Pashtuns into the army and government but those attempts were resisted aggressively.because the Taliban (Pastuns) don't want to share power with anyone for tribal reasons as much as foe theological ones.
Afghanistan is not so much a failed state as it is a failed idea of a state. Just another in the long list of countries who owe their existence to empire and colonialism and the practice of divide and rule.
We can accept the break up of the Soviet union, the Balkans, the UK even, yet we somehow try to 'hold together' nations that we're drawn up on a table in Whitehall between 100 and 200 years ago over a glass of brandy and a cigar. See all of Africa and the Middle East, or pretty much any conflict zone around the world, the odds are more than even that the country in question started it's life as a piece of pink on the map..
I think this moment is bigger and broader than it currently appears even with the frenzy in the media.
Not saying its a Berlin Wall but it looks like an opportunity for many factions to assert themselves.
A sort of Postern gate in reverse?
Just to reply to big n daft the redwalls have not changed the centre of gravity in the Tory party they are no more than useful idiots.
No actual attempt will be made to deliver anything to them other than rhetoric. They will fade away over the next couple of GEs.
A few were asking where Blair was for his insight - just arrived - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58295384
So basically some retarded, bigoted knuckle draggers from a previous century have taken their country back.
Please don't bring up Brexit on this thread - we are trying to discuss Afghanistan.
Just another in the long list of countries who owe their existence to empire and colonialism and the practice of divide and rule.
Ehhhh - modern Afghanistan is a clear successor to the Durrani Empire of the 1700s. It's not a square drawn on a map over cigars. But in any case all states and borders are constructs. There are no "natural" countries (except maybe Iceland, and even then...)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durrani_Empire
The global stepchange since the end of WW2 has been slow but steady. The US is no longer the global enforcer
The citizens of democracies have limited appetites for foreign wars that make little to no sense on a human scale, have no clear goal, have no clear end point, and have no real "bad guys"., but still fill up endless hours of broadcast news It has also always been a requirement since the end of WW2 of the armies of democracies with volunteer armed forces to limit casualties and self-enforce "limited actions" on the battle field. The lesson that fails to be learned time and again from Korea onward is that armies can't be used like that and be successful.
Strange that it took Afghanistan to bring some of this into the light.
Replace Afghanistan with Korea, Vietnam, Malaya, Iraq...the list is endless.
The citizens of democracies have limited appetites for foreign wars that make little to no sense on a human scale
It's a common misconception that autocracies are strong and democracies weak, but democratic countries won WW1 and WW2. One interpretation of that is that leaders in democracies are constrained by popular opinion and democracies are more adaptable when things go wrong. By 1944, it was very obvious that Japan and Germany were doomed, but there was no way of changing leadership except by assassination. The British and American public (after Pearl Harbor) understood that WW2 was an existential fight, so leaders didn't have to persuade the public to support the war effort.
The problem for the U.S. now is that it is an unbelievably wealthy country and the public didn't have to make any real sacrifices for the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts. There was no draft, so middle-class families didn't have to worry about their sons getting killed, and there was no rationing or economic shortages. Saddam Hussein and the Taliban were genuinely brutish and cruel, so it was easy for people at home watching tv news to support humanitarian intervention without any real understanding of what was going on.
Politecameraaction,
Look at the map of the Durrani Empire you provided. It includes the Tribal lands of ****stan, going all the way down to the Indian Ocean...kind of makes my point.
When it comes to 'constructing' countries, the British Empire provided the instruction manual. A bit like IKEA, it all comes flat packed but when the various components get strewn about the floor and vital pieces get lost under the fridge the final product always ends up a bit wonky.
kind of makes my point.
No, it doesn't. Many borders change over time. Empires rise and fall. Afghanistan is a completely different proposition to the straight line bordered countries of the early and mid 20th century. Not everything happens with the Brits at the centre of the story.
kind of makes my point.
No, not really
Politecameraaction,
Stop being a clever dick. You know I'm generalizing, of course empires existed before the British.
My original point was about imposed borders interfering with tribal affiliations. The southern half of Afghanistan was ceded to the British Raj when the Durrand line was 'drawn' after the 2nd Anglo-Afghan war in the late 1800's, dividing the ethnic Pashtun and Baloch territories.
So the Brits we're the last people to define the borders of Southern Afghanistan, creating that rather troublesome and porous border with modern day ****stan.
kind of putting Britain at the centre of the (recent) story.
My original point was about imposed borders interfering with tribal affiliations.
Borders practically always end up splitting populations because very few populations are completely homogenous (Japan and Iceland are good counterexamples) and because identities are multilayered.
Stop being a clever dick.
ooooOOOOooooHHHHHhh!
No, not really
It kind of does though.
It’s a common misconception that autocracies are strong and democracies weak, but democratic countries won WW1 and WW2.
Soviet Union...
Just to reply to big n daft the redwalls have not changed the centre of gravity in the Tory party they are no more than useful idiots.
No actual attempt will be made to deliver anything to them other than rhetoric. They will fade away over the next couple of GEs.
Oh so very much this.
Some retired General Melchet character (Tim Cross) is on Five Live saying that 'we' should be summoning up the spirit of the Falklands and have British troops (or 'Our Brave Boys' as I believe they're now known) 'hold' the airport for a week or two after the Americans have pulled out, so they can rescue all the translators etc.
Erm... NURSE!!!.. he's off his medication again
It’s a common misconception that autocracies are strong and democracies weak, but democratic countries won WW1 and WW2
Yes agreed. I don't think that democracies are necessarily weak per se, it's that they have different pressures than dictatorial or repressive regimes do when it comes to war. One of those pressures is public opinion. The problem with comparing any modern conflict with ww2 is that it's probably unique as the high water mark for justifiable war that could be easily understood by just about everyone. Since then the wars that western democracies have tended to get involved with have at the very least either a vague strategic or resource element (Middle East, Afghanistan), or they tend to be limiting revolutionary demands and propping up rather distasteful and corrupt regimes (see Korea Vietnam, Nicaragua, Panama etc etc.) these are not easy to understand, have vague outcomes, and are generally interdiction or guerilla based
Korea is a really good example for how all future wars would be fought in the nuclear age. MacArthur (admittedly a nutcase) wanted to chase the Chinese all the way over the Yalu, bombing the bridges and taking the fight to the them into China itself. Truman naturally thought this was madness from a global strategic sense, and so a pattern develops from there. Limited use of hugely powerful armies in containment actions. Never endling and never winnable. I doubt that lesson has even been learned even by this experience, history and evidence appears to say so as well
In an nutshell 🙂
The problem with comparing any modern conflict with ww2 is that it’s probably unique as the high water mark for justifiable war
Afghanistan had more justification than any other recent conflict. Only time Nato article 5 has been evoked, 90-0 senate vote, "endorsed" by the UN etc. It was thought to be an extremely necessary action at the time with great public support. Obviously it's ended in disaster but did start off with more legitimacy than anything in post WWI history.
Afghanistan had more justification than any other recent conflict.
I think the first Gulf War is an interesting example. Kuwait is as difficult to like as most of the rich oil states, but Saddam Hussein was worse, their was broad international support for kicking him out of Kuwait, the goals were limited just to that, not regime change and nation building. Whatever you think of George H. Bush, he wasn't stupid enough to get drawn into trying to impose democracy at gunpoint on a country that had no experience of it.
Obviously it’s ended in disaster but did start off with more legitimacy than anything in post WWI history.
Korean War was started by an unprovoked Northern invasion. It was similarly widely supported to begin with, and had arguably equal legitimacy. It just dawned on everyone that in order to "win" you had to take on the PLA in China, probably using nuclear weaponry. At that realisation, an "honourable" stalemate was always going to be the best (and only) option That pattern has repeated itself endlessly ever since. As thols2 points out; at least Bush Sr. had the good sense to not invade Iraq.
Afghanistan occupation failed because dealing with the two things that destabilize it; Corruption and ****stan are politically too difficult/inconvenient to resolve, Like in the Korea war, a "win" in Afghanistan would have involved at least the invasion of Northern Pashtun areas of ****stan in strength to take on the Taliban there as well.
At that realisation, an “honourable” stalemate was always going to be the best (and only) option
Well:
China's envoy to the UN said the US, UK, Australia and others "must be held accountable for the violation of human rights committed by their military".
Chen Xu told an emergency session of the Human Rights Council: "Under the banner of democracy and human rights the US and other countries carry out military interventions in other sovereign states and impose their own model on countries with vastly different history and culture."
He claimed this has brought "great suffering" to Afghanistan.
Somewhat ironic, but their intervention is only going to push Biden to harden his line.
Thats top trolling there from the Chinese.
They've obviously been taking some pointers from Putin
Next stop Taiwan then, eh?
At the risk of being cynical, what makes you think that this is not at least part of the Chinese end game?
They know there are a tonne of minerals in the country and that the heroin goes to western nations where it causes a problem. They can afford to be generous and make the right noises, maybe build some bridges or a dam, get some contracts, pay off the right people. Claiming war crimes (possibly quite honestly) against NATO might even be broadly true given evidence like SEAL Team 6 and some of the shit that the Australian SAS got up to, so it has a ring of truth to people that got bombed, then abandoned. Soft power and good marketing...
Inside the velvet glove though, the Chinese Communist Party _know_ that they have the capability to suppress any outcry within their own borders, they can also suppress things at the UN if they need to. They could send in thousands of troops to protect their investments (if/when they happen) and not care about individual lives if it pushed China into a more powerful position. Democratic nations and NATO might care about losing soldiers, does China? They harvest organs from prisoners and are trying to breed out of existence an entire ethnicity.
Excellent summary of Trump's deal
https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1430049853569216514?s=20
Well worth watching.
Foreign Office ignored frantic pleas to help Afghans
Thousands of urgent messages from MPs and charities had not been read by the end of the UK evacuation from Afghanistan
“They cannot possibly know [how many people have been left behind] because they haven’t even read the emails. Even among those who’ve been registered, many have been left behind. But there’s also a much, much larger group of people who just haven’t been dealt with at all.”
/blockquote>
Someone noticed!
If it had been a different govt in power it would have just been a different set of "cretins" to blame.
It's always the fault of the person you hate the most.
ooooh the ninfan rap
Right, let’s move away from Johnson and Raab. Everyone knows they are both utterly unsuitable for the more important aspects of their jobs, even their supporters, it’s one of the reason they like them. Let’s look more widely at the mess we (mostly the USA really, let’s face it) are leaving behind…
https://nypost.com/2021/08/27/taliban-kill-squad-hunting-afghans-with-americas-biometric-data/
Taliban kill squad hunting down Afghans — using US biometric data
The Taliban has mobilized a special unit, called Al Isha, to hunt down Afghans who helped US and allied forces — and it’s using US equipment and data to do it.
Nawazuddin Haqqani, one of the brigade commanders over the Al Isha unit, bragged in an interview with Zenger News that his unit is using US-made hand-held scanners to tap into a massive US-built biometric database and positively identify any person who helped the NATO allies or worked with Indian intelligence. Afghans who try to deny or minimize their role will find themselves contradicted by the detailed computer records that the US left behind in its frenzied withdrawal.
Right, let’s move away from Johnson and Raab. Everyone knows they are both utterly unsuitable for the more important aspects of their jobs, even their supporters,
Unsuitable for any aspect of their role. And no you can’t just move away from them. They are responsible. It’s what their role is. Brads is wrong, it is clear that the Tories have been particularly wanting in their response. They’ve been in power for years. This is entirely of Tory making. And neither can you just blame the USA. The bottom line is that the U.K. and Tory Westminster has been an enabler of a failed US foreign policy that encompasses Afghanistan and Iraq.
Simply saying it’s the big kid what made me do it is frankly the sign of a weak and useless government.
Brads is wrong, it is clear that the Tories have been particularly wanting in their response. They’ve been in power for years. This is entirely of Tory making. And neither can you just blame the USA.
In the 20 years of the latest Afghan war there has been approximately 4 years of Tory majority government.
Furthermore more whilst the Tories might have been fully supportive of the decision to go to war in Afghanistan they were not the government at the time that the decision was made.
To blame the Tories "entirely" is not just frankly ridiculous but it also provides no constructive basis to learn lessons from what has proved to have been one of the greatest foreign policy blunders of recent times.
Trillions spent on a war that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of brown people and left the "enemy" in the same position as they were 20 years previously, except significantly stronger.
This isn't the 19th century ffs, you can't restrict your criticism to the logistical failures of the war.
And btw Kelvin saying :
"Let’s look more widely at the mess we (mostly the USA really, let’s face it) are leaving behind…"
Isn't the same as "just" blaming the USA.
Is it just me that is delighted to find out the head of the US Army overseeing the mission is Ken McKenzie
Preposterous!
Popping a bit of positivity into this thread:
https://twitter.com/bbcyaldahakim/status/1432003264396992520?s=21
Dover Dom has just been on R4 where he quietly and surreptitiously as possible threw the UK intelligence services under the bus and dismissed the accusations of retired senior military officers as false. Whilst painting the FO as a paragon of foresight and sympathy.
It would be lovely if a few of the chaps were to start having chats about whether some footage of Dover Dom could be rustled up or if some of those apparently disappeared WhatsApp messages could be un-disappeared.
C'mon lads, he's called you liars and incompetents - do him over.
Just saw the American's working dogs behind left behind in one of the newspaper DailyM ... this boil my urine.
To blame the Tories “entirely” is not just frankly ridiculous but it also provides no constructive basis to learn lessons from what has proved to have been one of the greatest foreign policy blunders of recent times.
No surprise there for blaming the Tories from certain people.
Blame seems to be the bigger interest at the minute, and it seems strangely round and round the houses, perhaps because this started with 911 and Bush, and the UK under Blair, and passed through several US and UK governments, Trump was the genius that negotiated and signed the deal..not with the Afghan government but with..er..the Taliban that they spent 20 years and a trillion dollars trying to get rid of(is it only me that finds that perverse?) and Biden seems to want to carry the can.
That's just about all of us, no excuses, we all voted for one of them and they all fkd it, some well meaning, some just for political kicks, the responsibility is with 'the West' now because we all had a hand in it, we all paid tax to crush the Arab spring at some point, blaming one or other US president or political party is avoiding the inconvenient truth, we did it and our governments managed it so badly it didn't achieve it's goal for more than a week.
So rather than waste bandwidth predictably arguing which of our various arch political enemies are to blame, consider for a moment why we vote and enable our leaders to play with peoples lives.
In the 20 years of the latest Afghan war there has been approximately 4 years of Tory majority government.
And many more years of tory based coalitions. Its disingenuous of you to keep on saying this one - yes the DUP and Limp dems have some responsibility but its mainly the tories
Edit - and the last 5 years of blair / brown was also a right of centre government
This year will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11, i suspect the commemorations will be even more solemn than in previous years considering we are now essentially back where we started. What a sad tragic waste across the board.
And many more years of tory based coalitions. Its disingenuous of you to keep on saying this one
So in the last 20 years there have been Labour governments about half the time. Its a bit disingenuous to keep denying that.
Blaming the Tories entirely for the mess that is Afghanistan is ridiculous.
And learning the lessons of a failed war which achieved almost nothing and yet cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people is important. Although not for everyone.
Currently listening to Tom Tugenhat on the select committee rip Dominac Rabb a new arshole regarding their exit plan for evacuation of the Embassy in Kabul, Dominic raab isn't the hard man now, he sounds like a snivelling little shit caught with his trousers around his ankles and dick in hand.
Nice to watch a squirming ruffled minister being interrogated
He really doesn't want to say when he went on holiday, does he.
ernielynch is Morrissey and I claim my £5.
🙊
snivelling little shit caught with his trousers around his ankles and dick in hand
I think that was Matt Hancock.
Dominic raab isn’t the hard man now
A mere blip. He doesn't give a shit. He doesn't have to. He will never resign and will never be sacked. Too loyal to 'The Project'.
He might have a moment of childish rage at being made to look a ninny in front of people, but the 'New Tory' core support probably won't even notice, even less likely give a shit. All he has to do is brass it out for a few days and it will all go away. In the meantime the few knuckleheads that do notice will just say:
"Something....something....it wouldn't be any better under Labour....ungovernable savages anyway....at least we don't have to waste our time and money on them any more....Ingerland are playing footie tomorrow....come on Ingerland....Vindaloo-la-la....Afghanistan? Are they in our group?"
And it all blows over for tossers like Raab. Job jobbed. On to the next balls up.
And it all blows over for tossers like Raab. Job jobbed. On to the next balls up.
And just when you think they can't balls it up any more they find a way.
What is really left to fek up now - Alien Invasion..
This year will be the 20th anniversary of 9/11
All this in this particular year does make me nervous about getting on a plane.
I'm waiting for Raab to finally just say "Of course I don't know what I'm doing! I don't know anything! I got this job purely because I was one of the most enthusiastic liars about brexit. Everyone knows that!"
I’m waiting for Raab to finally just say “Of course I don’t know what I’m doing! I don’t know anything! I got this job purely because I was one of the most enthusiastic liars about brexit. Everyone knows that!”
That is the one thing he'll never do because it is the only way to get sacked from this 'government'.
Embezzle billions and give it to your mates to provide shonky PPE? No worries.
Cause massive unnecessary stress to school leavers by being an incompetent prat - having achieved ridicule in your previous job by threatening China with a single aircraft carrier that probably doesn't work? No worries.
Bully your staff mercilessly then police a relatively peaceful but embarrassing protest like Tiananmen Square, whilst allowing a pretty much full-scale 'celebratory' football riot to go ahead with little more than a stern word? No worries.
Admit acting illegally to help a pornographer who just happens to be a massive Tory donor to evade tax - but say it's OK and you got caught anyway? No worries.
Admit Brexit is a pack of lies and a con? Off to Siberia with you. Well, Sunderland at least.
What is really left to fek up now – Alien Invasion..
They'd probably be OK with that as the odds are aliens would look a bit different, talk 'funny' and have a different skin colour.
Although, thinking about it, if the aliens just looked a bit pasty and spoke something that sounded like Russian, and chose to invade via Biggin Hill airfield then they'd probably end up in the House of Lords.
🏴🍆💦🏴
Bully your staff mercilessly then police a relatively peaceful but embarrassing protest like Tiananmen Square, whilst allowing a pretty much full-scale ‘celebratory’ football riot to go ahead with little more than a stern word? No worries.
Really? The machine gunning and crushing by tanks of the protesters escaped the news?
The guy with the Lidl bags outside McDonald's stopping the tanks wasn't recorded by social media?
Keep making excuses for them if you like. They reward people like you well, so I guess you've got one eye on the future. Smart move.
And to add to my assessment of Dover Dom Raab's performance over Afghanistan. I firmly believe that his original reluctance to be contacted whilst on hollibobs was mainly due to his instinctive reaction to shy away from being associated with anything that involves inviting brown Muslim people to come to the UK. That doesn't play well to the new support.
Hundreds of the Afghans who arrived recently received their first meal on UK soil from charities. Make of that what you will.
He really doesn’t want to say when he went on holiday, does he.
https://twitter.com/stvkathryn/status/1433073613423497225?s=21
He really doesn’t want to say when he went on holiday, does he.
^^^
The likes of Raab will always surround themselves with yes-men.
Their weakness, vanity, stupidity and mendacity means truth is a dangerous concept. Much better to arsehole along without a care in the world and let some other poor sods cop the consequences. Useless cynical shits.
If he wasn’t Johnson’s fall guy, Raab would be up the creek without a paddleboard
Marina Hyde nails it again
It would appear that Dominic has lost the dressing room. As for how completely he has mislaid it, the foreign secretary makes even José Mourinho’s Real Madrid dressing room look like it was right behind the manager. We seem to be very much in Raymond-Domenech-at-the 2010-World-Cup territory. At that tournament, the French coach presided over walkouts, insurrection, bitter briefings, a team bus sit-in, players training independently and a group-stage exit that prompted some kind of national public inquiry into the mutiny. Luckily, we don’t take the Foreign Office that seriously.
How did we end up with people like Boris Johnson, Gavin Williamson and this walking morality void running the country? A clear sign of how debased our politics has become.