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Despite only delivering fewer than 400k cars in 2019, compared to vw's 11mil. I don't get it. Massively overvalued or does this make sense in another way I'm too daft to understand?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51214824
I suspect overvalued but it keeps on going.... I thought it may be swallowed up once the big players turned their attention to making EV's at scale but it looks like it is now a big player!
Still think once the real manufacturers have sweated their ICE assets they may look a bit more mediocre. Lets see
Like it’s cars the shares are overvalued.
Overvalued. The major manufacturers have taken their time to develop and test. They are just about at the point of making large inroads into the EV market. Oh and I would trust VW to make a better job of it ultimately than Tesla.
Overvalued
IMO too, but I'm not a fan of Tesla. They have however been the only manufacturer to provide a charging infrastructure, which I think is a brilliant thing to do.
Certainly considering Ionity put their charging prices up 500% to 70p per KWhr, when Teslas superchargers cost 26p.
Ionity note their shareholders as VWGroup/BMW/Merc... so they've obviously developed a TOM that makes up for the lack of service costs with higher User costs.
Neat model, if you use Ionity that is.
Completely mad, but as a Tesla shareholder I'm not complaining!
Possibly overvalued as a car manufacturer.
But they can't meet demand, so growth is almost guaranteed. They have a good-ish reputation and brand image (they're not Honda that your grandparents drive, not a cheap korean brand, not a mundane Mondeo, not an unreliable French/Italian brand, not tarred with emissions scandals, etc etc. That's a massive headstart over where the likes of Hyundai and Skoda (ok one is VW, the other is a massive engineering company which probably dwarfs most car companies) were 10-15 years ago.
But they have effectively got a 10 year head start on batteries and fuel stations. Part of their business model seems to be geared towards potentially selling tech and batteries to other manufacturers. How long before someone wants to build a short haul electric plane and comes knocking for a technology partner?
And I'd expect the price of filling up to rise so there's margins to be made there also.
They have a good-ish reputation
If you count battery fires and other issues as ‘ish’ that is.
They have a good-ish reputation
Erm... where on earth did you hear that?
Does all this take into account the solar cell and other battery side of the company? Could that be pushing the value of Tesla up?
If you count battery fires and other issues as ‘ish’ that is.
As opposed to:
VW- emissions
BMW - driven by BMW drivers
Audi - driven by ex-BMW drivers
Ford - bland
Vauxhall - bland until they catch fire
Korean cars - cheap and bland
Japanese cars - your parents would approve levels of bland, or boy racers
Fiat - Fix It Again Tomorrow (infact add all italian and french cars to that)
etc.
where on earth did you hear that?
Like apple, how much you like them is probably inversely proportional to how much you hate them, and not much more to it than that.
It's future looking, and Tesla are just in better shape for the next 10-15 years than most. Beyond that, who knows.
The brewing problem for the rest of the car industry is battery supply. They've got billions sunk into engine manufacturing plants that will be making fewer units in the future, while also needing to invest in making batteries or guarantee supply of them. No good having grand plans to electrify if you can't actually make them at scale.
Tesla (via joint venture with Panasonic) are one of the biggest producers of batteries in the world, and they're rapidly rolling out new factories to do more. Almost everyone else is going off to LG Chem, CATL, A123 and the like and needing to front up huge figures to secure supply in the near term, and set up deals to use their expertise in setting up their own operations for the future. Not forgetting that Tesla are also using that battery tech on power grids, as more wind and solar gets used you need to be able to store energy from good days to cover worse days.
The likes of VW have been preparing investors for a long period of reduced profitability as they electrify. They need to spend a lot now and weather the dwindling ICE sales in the hope of being a huge player in the market down the line. It's why FCA (Fiat / Chrysler / Dodge / Jeep group) have been so desperate for a merger - first attempted with Renault, now with PSA - they needed a quicker route to EV tech as they were so far behind.
It's going to be an interesting decade, and could well bring down one or two of the lumbering dinosaurs of the industry.
As opposed to:
No, as well as.
Like apple, how much you like them is probably inversely proportional to how much you hate them, and not much more to it than that.
I like them but they’re very expensive and don’t have a very good reputation. So, I won’t be getting one until both those are addressed.
Its a potential dot com thing. Investors do see Tesla as the future...innovative, fast moving etc. but ultimately, and after driving a model 3 last week...in my opinion take away the straight line acceleration party trick and you're left with a pretty average and boring car.
they might make it....companies like Hyundai have made it by constant government support until such a time their market and customer base grew such that it could sustain itself and grow...Tesla has an army of investors willing to continue to pump money into the business and prop it up in a similar way, and they might just continue to do that long enough for Tesla, in the same way, to gain enough critical mass that it too can survive unsupported. But it has a way to go. But should the investors lose confidence and stop pumping in the capital then over night Tesla could collapse.
Also it is not entirely certain the future of EV's is batteries...hydrogen fuel cells are not dead yet and a neat way of using up excess power generated by renewable resources is to store the energy by making Hydrogen instead of charging up batteries....The infrastructure for moving Hydrogen around is much easier...its more convenient for users..fill up in a few minutes and your off just like petrol and diesel instead of waiting half an hour....not having to carry heavy batteries around which need replacing regularly...etc. There is a long way to go yet.
But then again I'm a dinosaur and it'll be upto the yoof's and how they choose to move themselves around. iPhones on wheels or are they too going to become intoxicated with cars like we have.
I like them but they’re very expensive and don’t have a very good reputation. So, I won’t be getting one until both those are addressed.
Yea, I think perhaps there's also a generational aspect, people under 35-ish have probably had the global warming message since primary school. Assuming I'm in anyway normal or average (hahahahaha) then there's a generation of car drivers who've been on the road for 10-15 years who've resented the lack of a better option and felt guilty every time they've filled up their car. They're now 30 and looking to buy bigger saloons and 'premium' cars (exactly what Tesla market themselves as, even if the interiors are still a bit cheap). That's a big pent up demand of people that now look at the car industry with a bit of disdain and hold Tesla in higher regard for actually doing something.
Thanks, now it makes a bit more sense. I wasn't aware of all the extra stuff they do that isn't car manufacturing. I just can't get past the volume of sales comparison and the idea that they will be able to cater for the masses globally better than the established big players. I'm not a hater btw, I'd buy one if it cost the same as a focus and I could get it serviced down the road, and had a drive to park it on etc... but something tells me by that time ford and the other big players will have beaten them to it.
They may well not end up winning the long game, but the change to the industry they have made is incredible. We wouldn't have the current rush to EV without them as everyone said 'its just not possible' until Tesla came along and showed everyone you can have decent range, excellent performance and a decent car with current technology.
The infrastructure for moving Hydrogen around is much easier
Can you clarify that?
Surely the electrical network is one of the simplest ways of moving energy (aside from the sun)
The US stock market is full of crazy valuations (P/E ratios etc..) at the moment and IU see it in my industry not just Tesla. 40% of S&P500 / NASDAQ companies aren't profitable, but investors see them as share price growth areas in comparisons to low interest rates. It's not just a Tesla thing.
However Tesla is probably here to stay. They have the best charging infrastructure, best battery tech and someone else will probably buy them at some point if the share price drops as competitors catch up.
Apple looked like that too once...
The infrastructure for moving Hydrogen around is much easier
Can you clarify that?
Tankers? Like petrol and diesel.
Apple looked like that too once…
An analogy that VW’s CEO made in recent weeks saying they needed to speed up the overhaul of their business to avoid becoming another Nokia.
Related to hydrogen comments: VW and many others have massively scaled back their R&D on fuel cells. It’s really only Toyota who are being very Japanese and stubbornly ploughing on with it - although they’re quietly getting into battery EVs on the side too.
Whistler had a fleet of Hydrogen busses for the 2010 olympics, didnt work out as the hydrogen was being shipped from Quebec and at $2.5mil/year more than a diesel fleet, money talked.
hydrogen bus
although they’re quietly getting into battery EVs on the side too.
Not exactly quiet about being one of the first and having several models out.
Fiat – Fix It Again Tomorrow
Pedantry: It's Fix it Again, Tony.
It’s Fix it Again, Tony.
Never heard of that version.
Assuming that VW's valuation is 'fair and reasonable' then Tesla are massively overvalued.
I wouldn't call it a bubble but I wouldn't consider one of the cars until they are more fully proven and definitely wouldn't invest.
Never heard of that version
Um. Condolences?
I’m not so sure about currently being overvalued. Admittedly some of projections seem wacky, but right now, if you think electric, you think Tesla, be that EVs, solar or Powerwalls. They’re also on 3 continents, and with a good foothold in China, with decent access to raw materials required for the tech such as rhodium, lithium, cobalt, etc. They’re pulled a blinder, and yet, I’m still not sure I want one. I like my i3, but I like it’s interior, every Tesla I’ve been in has felt...cheap, like most American cars.
Tankers? Like petrol and diesel.
Hydrogen is an utter PITA to store.
Its incredibly low density, even as a liquid, so you need a physically bigger tank. You can increace the pressure, but that brings even more risks.
It isnt a liquid at ambient temperature (at any pressure). Infact it's only a liquid in a very small enevelope arround 20-30k. I.e. you cant store it as a liquid in a tanker or car.
Its permeable through most steels. You can work arround that, but its not like petrol which these days is in a plastic tank in most cars.
Its incredibly valuable, refineries rarely have a surplus of it. Although when they do its usually flared as it cant sensibly be stored. And we're supposed to be cutting back on fossil fuels, not just releasing the carbon elsewhere.
Its not all that efficient to make, which is fine with a large ammount of renewables. But as battery tech progresses and charging times come down the benefit of being able to charge in 20minutes becomes less of a drawback compared to trying to handle hydrogen.
I quite like Musk, he's a real trail blazer and he's obviously shook up stalwarts and industry dinosaurs.
For better or worse, things really need to change and I think if it wasn't for him, there wouldn't be the impotus.
Yes tesla cars are too expensive for the average household but it is progress, and he's making NASA look like school children with spaceX.
and he’s making NASA look like school children with spaceX.
He’s really not. NASAs priorities and budgets are at the whims of politicians and their priorities and have rightly focussed their efforts on science/probes and deep space. SpaceX and Blue Origin and funded by wealthy backers and NASA themselves. It should also be pointed out that whilst SpaceX has been faffing around with Starhopper and Falcon 9 heavy, it’s now years later and hundreds of millions over budget for the thing which NASA contracted them to do - get astronauts to the ISS.
Surely the electrical network is one of the simplest ways of moving energy
No very efficient though, unless we develop ambient temperature superconductors.
I always saw the issue with hydrogen was more of the mass storage.
Zeppelin anyone?
Oh and I’ll vote Kashmir if anyone wants to embed 😉
Running directly on hydrogen is very different to a hydrogen fuel cell, the amounts of hydrogen were talking about for fuel cells is pretty small. Equivalent energy density of MSOFC with propane and hydrogen is about 3-4times that of the best lithium batteries. The difficulty with fuel cells is that the best efficiencies are achieved at high temperatures and they don’t like a cold start, so in cars, they may be used more like LPG, in that another source (battery storage) starts that car and gets it moving whilst the fuel cell warms, then switches. If this is the case, then it’s likely that we’ll see both battery and fuel cell cars. With the latter being bigger family cars, and the former being smaller, short range cars.
Daffy - youstill have the issue of storing and transporting the hydrogen do you not?
As Tinas says - Hydrogen is a slippery little beast
I think Hydrogen is better suited to large scale storage next to renewables ie you use excess electricity to electrolyse water to give you hydrogen to use to make electricty when the wind drops. This has been working on a small scale on Unst for years - the PURE project. Can it be scaled up?
are one of the biggest producers of batteries
Current technology batteries. They are one development away from being the betamax of stored power.
Their cars are way overpriced, when you consider they are made form ordinary car making materials. Not carbon fibre, not 3d printed, just conventional cars with an electric motor and a big ipad in the cabin.
When the big car makers catch up the exclusivity will wear off, and the supply and demand model they work to will look lopsided and many customers will go to more traditional manufacturers.
By this time, Musk will have sloped off chuckling
they might make it….companies like Hyundai have made it by constant government support until such a time their market and customer base grew such that it could sustain itself and grow…Tesla has an army of investors willing to continue to pump money into the business and prop it up in a similar way
AKA the US taxpayer
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/12/06/tesla-china-subsidies/
Etc.
No very efficient though, unless we develop ambient temperature superconductors.
Several times more efficient than hauling it around the country on the back of a trailer though.
This has been working on a small scale on Unst for years – the PURE project. Can it be scaled up?
Probably, it would also be a good source for oxygen too. Not sure on purity levels but we had an electrolysis plant at work (which was a bag of spanners but that's by the by) which was replaced by oxygen shipments at the >99.9995% purity mark. Dunno if we ever got it that pure but that's of far higher quality than even medical grade.
Love the Tesla threads on here, haters gonna hate.
Current technology batteries. They are one development away from being the betamax of stored power.
Telsa aquired Maxwell, the biggest player in ultracapacitors, last year. Maxwell have also been doing a lot of work on dry electrode tech that should give cheaper, denser li-ion batteries. In part it's seen as moves away from the exclusive Panasonic relationship they've had in the past.
Related - have seen that apparently the VW ID3 is looking like a Spring 2021 car now. The software problems reported late last year mean they'll have made 20k+ cars that will have to be stored then fixed. This new world of car production is more than just pressing some steel and bolting some bits together. Again, Tesla have been showing their capability in this area for years.
Tesla's production problems have been doing the things that rivals are good at. Now rivals are having to learn to do the things Tesla are good at. The valuations reflects how hard people think each of those is.