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We have got a eGolf on order through the work lease scheme. There was a special offer on just before Xmas so with the BIK changes it will only cost us £200 a month. My wife will use it for day to day work commute, school run etc and then will be the family car at the weekend.
We will use it for visiting family. We will get to Yorkshire on a single charge and going down to Kent will require some planning. We can prob stop at Milton Keynes Coachway as they have 10 Type 2 chargers and its bang on half way (90 miles) so leaves some spare range in case of any issues. Services don't seem as well equipped with 2 Type 2 chargers and then one can be damaged so would rather find alternatives if possible.
At the moment we don't plan to use it for family holidays more because cottages and rentals etc don't always have parking close by and it would be difficult to park it overnight.
29.5h at 10A is 64.9kWH. It's slightly less as the power drawn drops a little at he end of the charge. Do the calcualtion 12.9/64.9 and it's a 20% charging loss on a 52kWh battery which still isn't good and worse than at higher charge rates. In hot weather it's worse again.
So I'm encouraging people to use higher charge rates, preferably in low tarif periods because that's best for their wallet and the environment. Avoid 10A charging if you can.
Great post @luket, thanks.
Small point about the "Emissions" section: to be truly fair you have to consider the lifetime emissions which includes the manufacturing and mining the lithium etc.
I think it is less clear cut when you do that, especially given that, as you pointed out, the 2nd hand EVs are not very attractive so they have quite a short product life compared to ICE.
That will change in time of course, the technology and production is still new and developing quickly. I do believe that we need to support it now in order to secure that future investment.
In hot weather it’s worse again.
Possibly another good reason to charge overnight then? It's colder, the tariffs are lower, and you are helping to smooth out demand on the grid thus avoiding the "dirty" electricity that gets cranked up as demand peaks.
I think it is less clear cut when you do that, especially given that, as you pointed out, the 2nd hand EVs are not very attractive so they have quite a short product life compared to ICE.
They'll be attractive to somebody as a second car shopping trolley, but one thing you can be absolutely certain about is the batteries won't go to landfill. They either end up on someones garage wall as home battery storage (solar storage or cheap rates from the grid) or in someones car EV conversion project.
There was another report on TV about battery recycling. There are now two French companies specialising in recycling lithium batteries. At present they're just dealing with batteries from crashed cars and a few failed batteries so they are looking forward to the first cars to reach the end of their normal life. They have an investment programme to match predicted recycling needs. Given the high value of the recycled materials it's a profitable business model.
What ever you do don't damage the battery. Just had a chat a work and to fit a new battery into our PHEV 4x4 that got damaged, £6500.
Difference being they will most likely be intrinsically safe.
Just like mobiles.
Er, no, they most certainly aren't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_safety
Intrinsically safe mobiles aren't sold in the consumer market, you're talking about the best part of £600 for a basic phone and several thousand for a smart phone. As an aside I was referring to car charger and accessories vs fixed pumping equipment. Particularly where people (being generally rubbish) don't have the training or good sense to inspect the equipment before use and are happy to live with compromised sockets and cables. Last I checked nobody plugged their phone in at the pump.
Anyway, I did my own reading and, surprise, car charging equipment typically isn't ATEX rated, nor are electric vehicles at the consumer level. Doubtful though that just driving one across a forecourt would be a risk.
EV charging equipment should not be installed within hazardous zones of the forecourt as defined by the Dangerous Substances and Explosive Atmospheres Regulations 2002 due to the risk of an ignition source. This includes the charging cable and any vehicle when charging at the full extent of the charging cable.
Luket, good post, cheers!
w two French companies specialising in recycling lithium batteries.
Are they actually able to reclaim the lithium for re-use in batteries, which requires > 95% purity iirc? Last I heard a university researcher in the US was the first to achieve that but it required a great deal of manual work , so not remotely scalable or cost effective never mind profitable. Until we can genuinely recycle the lithium into new batteries, the pollution problems associated with mining it will persist.
Most lithium 'recycling' isnt. It is just less damaging disposal.
Robbo, eGolf uses CCS for rapid charging if you're filtering on zapmap or similar.
MK coachway is brilliant if it falls at a good point in your journey, reduces risk of not being able to charge (broken/busy) to virtually zero and even then there are 4x Ionity chargers alongside as a pricey fallback option.
I pretty much plan around Polar and Instavolt chargers rather than ecotricity ones in the services, loads are very close to motorway junctions so no big detours needed.
The recycling does indeed require a lot of manual work, chromolyolly. They showed guys with impressive safety equipment manually pulling the cells apart. The claim for the lithium battery pilot plant (because they don't have enough batteries to justify the investment needed to scale up yet) is that they recover/recycle a high percentage of lithium which is then used to make new batteries. It's not totally closed circuit with the remainder of the lithium in a no-toxic residue.
From an article which refers to the same companies:
En France, Bolloré travaille sur une technologie de récupération du lithium de ses batteries lithium-metal-polymère sur son site d'Ergué-Gabéric (Finistère). Euro Dieuze Industrie (groupe Veolia) s'affirme capable de recycler 90% de la masse d'une batterie lithium-ion à Dieuze (Moselle). Quant à Snam, il a développé une unité de reconstruction qui produit des batteries neuves issues à 80% de composants recyclés à Viviez, dans l'Aveyron.
and with Google translate:
In France, Bolloré is working on a technology to recover lithium from its lithium-metal-polymer batteries at its site in Ergué-Gabéric (Finistère). Euro Dieuze Industrie (Veolia group) claims to be able to recycle 90% of the mass of a lithium-ion battery in Dieuze (Moselle). As for Snam, it has developed a reconstruction unit that produces new batteries made from 80% recycled components in Viviez, in Aveyron.
Oh it's the Veolia group. That makes sense. I think they are actually using the method the guy in the US designed. Afiak, they can't consistently recover the litium in a pure enough form to re use. The best they can do at the moment is sufficiently pure to use as a precursor in battery production. It's only viable because of the massive subsidies. It's a long way from profitable. Unfortunately, it is still way cheaper to mine it in some seriously environmentally ways. I think the Veolia pilot plant could do a max of 6000 batteries a year under current conditions.
I think when they refer to recovering 'the mass' of the battery, that's largely the Cobalt, maganese etc, ( which has been commercially viable for a while now) plus some lithium, so it's a bit misleading.
Just heard on radio that all ICE and hybrid sales to end 2035. That’s very soon!
I like electric, but it’s not there yet. They chew battery at any decent speed, and the range still isn’t there for long distances (charging) unless your idea of a nice weekend away is going to a big city rather than some where nice in the country side
Just heard on radio that all ICE and hybrid sales to end 2035. That’s very soon!
I like electric, but it’s not there yet. They chew battery at any decent speed, and the range still isn’t there for long distances (charging)
Ambitious, but doable I think. A leaf won't get from London to the Highlands, and neither would my bladder in one stint! But the bigger the battery the faster they can charge (in miles, they'll even out in percentage terms once everyone's tech matures). So once there's an Electric Mondeo/Vectra/Passat to compete with Tesla that'll be a tipping point. Because if you are driving from London to Peebles for the weekend (390 miles) then you only really need to stop for a top up of what, 10-15 minutes to get that 30% extra? Not even enough time to inhale gregs breakfast bake* on the M6 Toll services
unless your idea of a nice weekend away is going to a big city rather than some where nice in the country side
There's also an element of behavioral change. Burning 650 miles worth of diesel (a tesla model 3 charge there and back) for leisure isn't a sustainable activity.
*foodstuff example deliberately chosen as I'm sure someone must be working on a way to recover the waste heat of nuclear fusion that must surely be keeping the contents superheated.
Electric Passat will be on sale late next year with a bit of luck
They chew battery at any decent speed, and the range still isn’t there for long distances (charging) unless your idea of a nice weekend away is going to a big city rather than some where nice in the country side
Well that depends now really doesn’t it. The highlands is closer for me then London and I could do it in pretty much one charge, so factor in a stop for refreshments and toilets with a top up charge chucked in and it’s easily doable. The countryside even has electricity these days it’s marvellous.
Electric Passat will be on sale late next year with a bit of luck
Yea, but it won't be perfect, so you'll still get people saying "but I can't tow my space shuttle for the 3 week family trip to Cape Canaveral on a single charge".
Give it another model cycle and after 6 years of resentfully paying £70 to fill up their panzerwagen with smelly diesel in a freezing November wind whilst the teslarati sip espressos in Costa whilst the car fills itself up for £10 and things will change. It'll have a few miles more range, it'll charge a few minutes quicker and they can climb down from their soap box jerry can and tell us they've timed it just right.
The countryside even has electricity these days it’s marvellous.
Local electrons for local people.
Nice little beginners intro to home chargers on the fullycharged show:
That new date mean I should be able to only have to buy 1 more ICE'd car before then, 1 less than I thought. My journey profile isn't typical (long drives to the middle of nowhere, don't commute as I cycle) and as I currently rent (charging banned on my estate for all flats) it's not viable to do home charging so I've got to wait for the lower end BEV's to get a range of around 200. 2035 is ample time for that to be the norm. The current car should last me another 4-5 years, one more after it (most likely a hybrid/range extender version) and it should put me well into the realm of loads of viable electrics on the second-hand market. If the market changes faster than expected I can always extend the life of the current car a few more years if needed and go electric then. The idea of an electric car is appealing but the current options don't quite fit in with my journey profile, home circumstances or affordability yet, when the switch is well underway I'll be ready to jump.
(charging banned on my estate for all flats)
By who? Housing Association? That seems like a very odd thing to ban, what is their reasoning?
Home charging for people that don't have a driveway or parking spot is definitely a major stumbling point at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if the government have any plans to address that!
Just heard on radio that all ICE and hybrid sales to end 2035. That’s very soon!
15 years of increased electric car development really isn't "very soon". If it was down to me it would be 2025 as 2035 is in the pissing about category. Majority of people could easy make their next purchase an electric car right now and if they don't want to then don't buy a new car. The 5 year period would be to ensure the industry can prepare for the shock to it.
Just had a chat a work and to fit a new battery into our PHEV 4×4 that got damaged, £6500.
dont ever look at the cost of a new engine for an ICE then.
Give it another model cycle and after 6 years of resentfully paying £70 to fill up their panzerwagen with smelly diesel in a freezing November wind whilst the teslarati sip espressos in Costa whilst the car fills itself up for £10 and things will change. It’ll have a few miles more range, it’ll charge a few minutes quicker and they can climb down from their soap box jerry can and tell us they’ve timed it just right.
so you have sold the focus ?
A few reasons: parking places are away from the flats so it would either be cables strewn everywhere or digging up the whole estate to put charging points in, current electricity supply wouldn't cope (new substation, re-wiring the whole estate), not every flat has a parking space (lots of people with multiple cars is a nightmare if you don't have your own designated space), all could be overcome but will cost an awful lot and seeing as the vast majority of the flats and houses are BTL's no-one is willing to pay for it. One of the privately owned houses at the start of the estate has a Leaf and they are stuck with 3-pin plug charging as the cost they were quoted to upgrade the electric supply was massive, well into the £10k's. My guess is the supply to the estate is under-specced for the size of the development. There's a plot at the far end that is good to go for another 2 blocks of flats and a few houses but has never started due to similar infrastructure issues.
Majority of people could easy make their next purchase an electric car right now
No they couldn't, the majority of people that want a Tesla can't buy one as there's a waiting list. 15 years is probably on the tight side for getting everything in place from mining, refining, manufacturing the batteries to refitting production lines for the new cars. Realistically 5 years for the mining side of things, and a further 5 years to bring out enough models and build the production lines?
so you have sold the focus ?
Nope and after 1 careful owner, and then me I don't think anyone would buy it. It's current issue is I poured a broken down dishwasher load of 4 day old drain water into the boot. The smell is out of this world!
It'll be scrapped to prevent it falling into the hands of some polarbear killing petrolhead when I'm done with it. But seeing as it's not moved off the driveway in 3 weeks except to take the dishwasher to the tip it may still be a few years before it makes a one way trip itself!
Was looking at an Nv200e for my old commute but changed jobs and now I don't really need the car at all.
Majority of people could easy make their next purchase an electric car right now
Aside from the logistical issues TINAS describes you assume the majority of people can afford to buy new. Not everyone has the same spending priorities or capabilities especially when the majority aren't rolling about in company cars.
you assume the majority of people can afford to buy new
What percentage of the UK market is lease these days though? And with the Benefit-In-Kind change for electric cars it makes sense if your work has a lease scheme.
All those ex-lease cars will then feed a growing second-hand market of nearly new electric cars.
shame they still dont make a peugeot partner tepee electric.
so it'll still be another 5 years before thats on my radar.
Aside from the logistical issues TINAS describes you assume the majority of people can afford to buy new. Not everyone has the same spending priorities or capabilities especially when the majority aren’t rolling about in company cars.
It's only on the sale of new cars though. I'd expect petrol/diesel to still be available for a good 10+ years after that. And even beyond that there'll be a niche market for it for classic cars etc.
I'd also expect to see alternative ways of financing cars appear. e.g. you might buy a 10 year old Tesla model 3 in the same way you'd buy a 170,000mile diesel estate now, but a finance company might buy the battery and associated risks and lease it back to you to keep the cost of motoring down for those on lower incomes.
My example, couple of weekends back I drove to Shropshire to Coniston for a weekend away. 150 miles each way.
Just about every electric vehicle on sale now would need a recharge to do that journey. I checked the maps and there were no charge points anywhere near where I was staying. So in essence I would have to change my behaviour to compensate for the car (which is doable, but a pain in the arse)
IMO batteries need to become interchangeable l, turn up at a charge station and they literally swap in/out your battery
Just about every electric vehicle on sale now would need a recharge to do that journey. I checked the maps and there were no charge points anywhere near where I was staying. So in essence I would have to change my behaviour to compensate for the car (which is doable, but a pain in the arse)
So it can be done then as there’s also plenty on sale that can. Not on near where you were staying, would it be difficult to pop into Coniston place the on charge and go for a walk while the car charges?
it’s relatively new and still developing but writing one off for a holiday in the countryside mean a small change to your schedule is a bit silly.
Home charging for people that don’t have a driveway or parking spot is definitely a major stumbling point at the moment. It’ll be interesting to see if the government have any plans to address that!
like this?
Infrastructure investment for all of this is going to have to be huge, epicly huge, charging stations, standardisation, swapping batteries, national grid & importantly power supply, future proofing
Its going to have to be a huge overhaul of how we travel around the country and Im frankly sceptical it can be done considering that HS2 is hugely over budget & late, Universal Credit roll out is hugely over budget & delpayed, NHS IT upgrade hugely overbudget & abandoned
And lets be honest its going to involve Huawei or that guy that hates paedo cave divers, setting all this up, which will be massively contraversial
personally I put this down as more Johnson hot air buffooning, rather than something that will happen
What also worried me with the rush to battery cars is that they probably are not the long term solution.
The rush is a snail's pace. When sales get to 10% of the car market I'll call it a gentle flow, more than 50% a "rush".
Just about every electric vehicle on sale now would need a recharge to do that journey. I checked the maps and there were no charge points anywhere near where I was staying.
Most cars will do 150 miles (Tesla Long Range have 390 mile range, but on a more affordable level the Kia e-Niro and Kia Soul EV quote 280 miles).
https://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/available-models/ (sort by range)
If there are genuinely no rapid chargers anywhere on your route or destination then you could still charge overnight off a normal 13 amp plug when you get there.
The use case is definitely better for second-cars that are mostly used for commutes. No argument there. But your example is not exactly insurmountable.
IMO batteries need to become interchangeable l, turn up at a charge station and they literally swap in/out your battery
I think that would limit the battery tech and electrical design way too much at this stage. When you can supercharge a modern battery in 30-40 minutes is it really that much hassle?
The rush is a snail’s pace. When sales get to 10% of the car market I’ll call it a gentle flow, more than 50% a “rush”.
Quite. I read something a few weeks ago that said that the biggest growing segment of the car market is diesel SUVs. And that the extra weight and un-aerodynamic-ness of those SUVs led to extra fuel use that wiped out the savings from electric cars by a factor of ten.
Mind you, it's like the post-Olympic 'bike boom'. The reality was a few middle aged men joined cycling clubs, but there was no transformation of the way that we travelled.
It strikes me that many are missing the point of the move away from ICE cars.
Lots of complaints that BEV range not sufficient, entry cost prohibitive, shorter lifecycles etc. This all appears to assume that we are meant to straight swap our cars over.
The reality is that our current 2 car household, drive anywhere on a whim lifestyles are completely unsustainable.
In the future we will be significantly more restricted in our movement. Be that by car or aeroplane. Journeys will simply need to be better planned and more rigourously justified.
It will be interesting to witness the impact of this sea-change on society and the economy. Don't count on the Government to integrate their planning. We should all be acting to insulate ourselves from this impact.
My example, couple of weekends back I drove to Shropshire to Coniston for a weekend
I'm really struggling to get my head round this example. There are loads of charge points on the way (you will need to stop which is something you should do anyway on a journey that distance) as well as charge points in Coniston. And you can still overnight charge off a plug as someone else mentioned.
It's like complaining that a petrol engine requires you to fill with petrol which would take you out of your way and you couldn't possibly do that.
you will need to stop which is something you should do anyway on a journey that distance
Hmmm! I’m not sure on a 150 mile journey you should stop, call a 2.5 hour 3 hour drive it’s not too bad. Much more than 3 hours then yes a rest stop would be sensible. However, stopping to charge is not really inconvenient and I bet there’s a few points on that route.
Weekend away brigade: we use our leaf with a bike rack on top for weekends away fairly often. Takes a wee bit of planning ahead, but it's totally fine. We basically get 100 miles per charge, so anything over 200 miles becomes a chore. Every place we've stayed has been happy to let us plug into a 3 pin socket, and only once have we had to find a public charger instead of overnight charging.
It is *marginally* more hassle than when we used a diesel focus for the same trips, but that is by far offset by the lack of hassle in every day use.
I do sympathise with those of you for whom home charging would be impractical. Hopefully as ICE is phased out some decent solutions will be found.
In the future we will be significantly more restricted in our movement. Be that by car or aeroplane. Journeys will simply need to be better planned and more rigourously justified.
I think in the next 15-20 years, there will be a lot more car-club EV around (despite the recent failure of one of the London firms).
In a similar timeframe, cars will be able to drive themselves to your front door, you get in it and it drops you off where you need to be.
I do sympathise with those of you for whom home charging would be impractical. Hopefully as ICE is phased out some decent solutions will be found.
They've started putting chargers in lamp-posts round our way (1930s suburban housing, not everybody has a driveway).
I suspect some uprating of the street lighting will be required eventually...
You can hire EV for insane prices and without worrying about having to refuel before returning.
There's rapid chargers in Booths @ Windermere. Booths @ Ulverston, Car Park in Ambleside. Using Booths doesn't require you to shop to use the chargers, but if you did both also have good cafes. Obviously you could easily spend 40mins walking round Windermere or Ambleside. You just need a can do attitude FunkyDunc 🙂
IMO batteries need to become interchangeable l, turn up at a charge station and they literally swap in/out your battery
My opinion is this will never happen for domestic vehicles, it's just seems unnecessarily over complicated. My bet would be simply on improved battery tech and faster charging backed up by on site battery storage. Where there might be a case is with commercial vehicles, planes, trains etc but there are other possibilities in the commercial sector like Hydrogen or Sodium-Ion batteries or half a dozen other new battery tech in the wings.
Hmmm, how will the national grid cope with the increase in capacity needed? Answer, it won't, as we all know its massively under funded and way behind on new power plant builds. Also imagine turning up at an average service station on the M1 at any given time of the day, how many cars are there? a hundred? two hundred? Do you think there will be a couple of hundred charging points? or even a couple of dozen? No. I know not everyone at a service station is there for fuel, but in the future 80% and more will be. Get in line sir.
As an aside, I have a 4 yr old VW transporter Kombi ( crew van) and I need the 5 seats, and the luggage capacity, and the space etc etc. It's good for another few years at least, but what then? No manufacturer is anyway near producing a vehicle to suit, so do I buy another dirty diesel and accept it will be almost unsaleable or what?
Do you think there will be a couple of hundred charging points?
No as there’s not a need are there 200 pumps?
andy8442
Member
Hmmm, how will the national grid cope with the increase in capacity needed? Answer, it won’t,
Answer from Graeme Cooper, Project Director, National Grid, IT WILL
Answer from Marcus Stewart, Head of Energy Insight, National Grid, IT WILL.
This is a prime example of the problem unfortunately.
Car sharing (in cities at least) will surely answer some of the practical questions?
The opportunity is enormous, one of the big players (my money is on Uber) will launch a system that makes car sharing more widely available, at a cost that makes owning a private vehicle no longer the norm
Combine that infrastructure with driverless technology...
Seems a lot more feasible than every terraced house on our street digging up the road for their own personal charge point
No as there’s not a need are there 200 pumps?
Ever noticed how petrol stations with mini marts attached always become chaos as folk go in to pay for their fuel and browse for something for tea.
Yeah that'll be electric car charging points while folk are in ordering and drinking their coffees. .
Charging point use patterns will not be comparible to fuel pumps in any way.if they were then people wouldn't be worried about electric cars.
Likewise . Can we get an answer on the national grid from an independent without. A vested interest --its their job to say it will even when it won't because if they didn't they would be sacked.
Prologium announced a solid state battery for EVs that's potentially not relying on lithium.
Also not entirely sold on the argument about factoring in lithium mining to the emissions of EVs when tar sands devastation, fugative methane, crude spills etc are largely ignored from ice vehicles.
I’m really struggling to get my head round this example. There are loads of charge points on the way (you will need to stop which is something you should do anyway on a journey that distance) as well as charge points in Coniston. And you can still overnight charge off a plug as someone else mentioned.
I’m not saying it’s not possible, just it’s going to take a huge shift in culture.
I left at 8am on a Friday. Got there, straight out on my bike for a nice long ride, back just before the daylight went. Stopping to charge on route would have meant no decent bike ride on the Friday and a shorter weekend overall with time spent in some random service station, or off my required route to charge. Then that would be if I was lucky enough to find a charger that worked or, a space (talking hypothetically when more people are driving EV’s)
I did actually take my charging cable for my hybrid. However 1. It wouldn’t reach from the static caravan window to my car, and people are currently genuinely offend when you ask to plug your car in (wasn’t my caravan)
We looked at an eGolf as a 2nd car, and very quickly dismissed it. Woeful power and real range. Maybe ok if you do town driving, but countryside, longer higher speed commutes, no chance
I’ve been in an electric / hybrid car for nearly 4 years now, and I haven’t seen anything change in that time that has really made me think the technology has changed.
I’ve been in an electric / hybrid car for nearly 4 years now, and I haven’t seen anything change in that time that has really made me think the technology has changed.
Longer range, more selection, prices are falling and more high speed chargers which would give you additional charge in about 30 mins.
Stopping to charge on route would have meant no decent bike ride on the Friday and a shorter weekend overall with time spent in some random service station, or off my required route to charge.
It can be as little as 30 minutes now but even at an hour it’s not a considerable amount of time. You could even go for a bike ride while it’s charging or when you get back and having a pint.
I did actually take my charging cable for my hybrid. However 1. It wouldn’t reach from the static caravan window to my car, and people are currently genuinely offend when you ask to plug your car in (wasn’t my caravan)
When I was in the Peaks I asked a random group of lads if I could charge from their lodge as ours was set back. They replied of course you can, genuinely didn’t seem offended.
Ever noticed how petrol stations with mini marts attached always become chaos as folk go in to pay for their fuel and browse for something for tea.
Yeah that’ll be electric car charging points while folk are in ordering and drinking their coffees.
Nope, majority of people will charge overnight at home. If I had a petrol pump at home I wouldn't EVER go to a petrol station. Making sure your car is charged every few days overnight is not complicated is it. Only people getting caught out or going on a long trip need to use the charge points.
Ever noticed how petrol stations with mini marts attached always become chaos as folk go in to pay for their fuel and browse for something for tea.
Yeah that’ll be electric car charging points while folk are in ordering and drinking their coffees.
No not really as they’re parking spaces with a charging point not a fuel and go spot.
just it’s going to take a huge shift in culture.
Yep ... when your driverless Uber/Tesla car runs out of charge half way up the M1, you'll pull over into the Uberlastation, walk in one entrance, have a wee, pick up your coffee (that you pre-ordered when 5 mins away) walk out the other side and into a different fully charged TesUbe to continue your journey.
Maybe that will be a first class journey (you in the car on your own) or second class with someone else (yes a random, but the higher YOUR rating for being a good customer the cheaper it is for you)
I'm looking forward to the future !!
And I'll be bring treats to get my rating up ! .... That will be Werther's originals for you lot
so your anallogy is shit then ? - which was more my point than anything plus/minus for electric cars.
Nope, majority of people will charge overnight at home.
That's assuming your able to plug your car in when you get home. I haven't got off road parking nor do many people. Solutions could be found, but it'll take massive investment in "public" charging points.
That’s assuming your able to plug your car in when you get home.
I guess that’s what was meant by a majority.
I’d also expect to see alternative ways of financing cars appear. e.g. you might buy a 10 year old Tesla model 3 in the same way you’d buy a 170,000mile diesel estate now, but a finance company might buy the battery and associated risks and lease it back to you to keep the cost of motoring down for those on lower incomes.
Excellent, a new way to fleece folk on lower incomes.
Nope, majority of people will charge overnight at home. If I had a petrol pump at home I wouldn’t EVER go to a petrol station. Making sure your car is charged every few days overnight is not complicated is it. Only people getting caught out or going on a long trip need to use the charge points.
You mean like the folk using service stations, the exact thing that's being talked about?
As for grid coping, lol. We have 7 of our nuclear stations due to close within the next decade with only one realistically ready to replace them by then and possibly another 2 behind that. Coal is gone, gas is expensive and doesn't provide energy security (too easy to just deny the supply from Russia or China) and the only thing we seem to be building are low power incinerators with gas turbines attached. The only way we will cope is with imports from Europe, another foreign power to rely on. This is based on the facts of what we have to work with now, not futurist predictions or science fiction.
How quickly do we think the cost of EVs will fall as take-up increases? Mrs ODs car is ten years old and we would normally be looking to replace Would happily buy an EV but don't do the mileage to even come close to justifying the extra cost over petrol equivalent
The current car will prob do another couple of years so, crystal ball time, will increasing competition push down EV cost?
The current car will prob do another couple of years so, crystal ball time, will increasing competition push down EV cost?
They’ve come right done but still more expensive than ICE they may drop some more but it also means they’ll be a growing amount of secondhand.
Yeah I was thinking that maybe in 3 years or so there will be start to be 2nd hand coming from lease deals which could be an option
Second hand market is artificially high because demand and wait times.
If there was a car id want to buy new or at least with warranty at the moment it would be an electric car.
Curiously - has any one had a good poke about under one ?
As one of the DIY brigade i have yet to scrap a car for a mechanical problem its always when i get fed up fighting the tinworm
folk (and common sense) tells me that these vehicles have less moving parts.
have the companies done their bit by properly galvanising the chassis - or alternative materials - what about plastic panels where possible - i know the tesla uses carbon where it can.
When you look at the costs vs ICE you also need to take in to account depreciation. Demand for second hand EVs is only going to grow, my four year old EV is worth about the same as it was when I bought it a year ago. So I've had a year of driving for the cost of a slightly increased electric bill. Yes technology will continue to develop, but second hand demand will remain strong against the number of older cars out there for a while, until mass volume of EVs start getting to 5+ years old.
Buying an ICE car now comes with a big risk, I wouldn't want to buy a new ICE car now with my own money and then try to sell it in 5+ years time.
folk (and common sense) tells me that these vehicles have less moving parts.
Time will tell, but in theory there should be less to go wrong.
Much less in the way of fluids (fuel, oil, coolant) to be carried, pumped and filtered. Even brake discs take less wear since the car will be doing regenerative braking most of the time.
Off the top of my head I think the long term issues will be battery fade, electric motor failure (bearings), electronic failure (blown caps, vibration damage) and software issues.
Buying an ICE car now comes with a big risk, I wouldn’t want to buy a new ICE car now with my own money
Agreed, market & technology is moving too fast That's why we are looking to lease for now.
A possible concern regarding secondhand EVs is range loss due to battery deterioration. We all know that the batteries in phones lose capacity as they age, EVs are the same but the manufacturers limit the original apparent capacity to hide that. New EVs are programmed to charge the battery only sufficiently to get the nominal range, as the battery ages this becomes an increasing percentage of the maximum charge. Doing this allows the maker to guarantee the battery performance for 8 years, partly because it's not working it so hard but mainly because their software is chopping the curve flat. Once you get past 8 years and the remaining capacity falls below that required for nominal range, the range reduces unless you replace the battery.
What I don't think has been mentioned on this thread (but I've certainly put across this view elsewhere) is autonomous driving. This enables what is in effect a subscription taxi service and is I think where Google/Uber/Apple/Dyson when they were in it are all looking towards.
There's certainly more development to do on the tech (and masses on the ethics and legal responsibilities side) but the combination of cameras, lidar and processing power is here now.
With that there is the chance to have a huge culture shift away from personal ownership and that gets over lots of the charging/range/parking/capacity issues mentioned above. Especially if combined with more flexible working practices. I think given the 15-20yr time horizon this is possible.
Personal cars are used just 2% of the time - but with massive rush-hour peaks so for example if you had a range of subscription models e.g:
1. Basic car, low cap on annual mileage, cleaned once a day, 30 min response time
2. Mid range car, mid mileage, cleaned x2, 10 min response time
3. Mid range car.....willing to share with 1 other
4. Flexi choice of car size depending on what's needed.
5. Exec car.........or different combinations.....you get the idea
Car called from app, self drives to pick up point, can self drive journey or could be a person drive option, car pool load balenced/located depending on state of charge and demand.
This model means more usage out of each car - with cleaning, charging and maintenance off road so say a 25th of the number of cars on the road. That would be transformational in terms of the feel of urban UK. Faster journeys. Software calculates a seamless meeting with w second car when that is going out of it's range/home location. No parking at home. No charging at home problems for those with no drive.
Would need big players to provide coverage/response times that work but as long as we can get over the entitled current view that we all need a big german built machine sitting idle on our drive or work car park (guilty as charged) then it seems like a no brainer.
As for grid coping, lol................ and the only thing we seem to be building are low power incinerators with gas turbines attached. The only way we will cope is with imports from Europe, another foreign power to rely on. This is based on the facts of what we have to work with now, not futurist predictions or science fiction.
You seem to have conveniently white washed wind generation out of the equation. Not only are we about to complete the worlds largest offshore wind farm, but it contains the worlds largest turbines, turbines that are so big they never stop turning.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/25/business/worlds-largest-wind-farm/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/worlds-largest-wind-turbines-to-be-built-off-yorkshire-coast
And it's not coping, it's co-operation. Norway is predominantly hydro electric, which can be turned on/off fairly easily so can cheaply add to the peaker plants which just provide for the 4pm - 7pm peak demand. It's a no brainer.
http://northsealink.com/en/the-project/why-connect-norway-and-the-uk/
And the Norwegian car importer association expects EVs to account for 55 to 60% of new car sales in 2020. It was 42% in 2019.
EVs aren't the one fix-all solution for all the world's problems, I don't think anyone is claiming that, but they are a totally viable big step in the right direction.
Buying an ICE car now comes with a big risk, I wouldn’t want to buy a new ICE car now with my own money and then try to sell it in 5+ years time.
My next car is going to be a 3.0ltr v6 ! Until such time as someone produces an alternative EV that drives well for the same money. Unfortunately all current EV’s miss out on the overall package and still cost lots more money.
I'm currently listening to engineers talk about electric vehicles in the office.
one is in uproar at the potential for 2.50 to charge his car every night
he doesn't seem to grasp that it wont be 2.50 every night and more so - he spends more than that currently on fuel at the petrol station.
A possible concern regarding secondhand EVs is range loss due to battery deterioration.
I would imagine the market will adapt to this. You compared it to smartphone batteries but there are plenty of services that will replace those for you. I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries. Unless the battery technology shifts they will become a long term consumable in vehicles.
Car called from app, self drives to pick up point, can self drive journey or could be a person drive option
Sounds good in theory, but you are not really describing anything different from an app-enabled taxi service like Uber. Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
You compared it to smartphone batteries but there are plenty of services that will replace those for you. I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries. Unless the battery technology shifts they will become a long term consumable in vehicles.
Newer EVs have the batteries built into the base chassis as it allows modular vehicle design and allows more room. I can’t see replacing them being straight forward or cheap. I do expect with the design calculating in battery fade that you’ll get more then 8 years out of them before it becomes much of an issue.
Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
Because you have to pay a person to drive it, it's going to be more expensive right now.
Loads of people I know who used to run two cars now run one + uber or one + car club.
Only really viable in big populations centres though I guess.
I would expect similar services to emerge for fading car batteries.
I'm sure that will happen, but battery cost is 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of the vehicle, so could double the cost of a secondhand EV. If replacement batteries can be supplied with current technology that will help, but manufacturers may lock you in to using their products, the same way many components on ICE cars are coded to the vehicle.
Sounds good in theory, but you are not really describing anything different from an app-enabled taxi service like Uber. Those exist already and very few people consider ditching personal ownership to rely on taxis.
Depends where you live.
46% of households in London don't own a car. Anecdotally the ones I know just use the buses for 9/10 trips and just have an uber account for the rest. We were working it out and the costs aren't that different to owning a car. I think we came up with a figure of £10 a day for a car (everything included but excluding parking), and the travelcards were £12, but they didn't need one every day because you could just cycle to work most days, get shopping delivered and share an uber on a weekend.
Now that I've changed jobs and no longer need it for work, I'm seriously tempted to ditch my main car. I've tried to convince the OH that we should get rid of hers (which is in worse condition and doesn't have a towbar) but she's having none of it so I'm kinda stuck with paying the overhead running costs of it!
I’m sure that will happen, but battery cost is 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost of the vehicle, so could double the cost of a secondhand EV. If replacement batteries can be supplied with current technology that will help, but manufacturers may lock you in to using their products, the same way many components on ICE cars are coded to the vehicle.
True to an extent, but older Teslas were just banks of 18650 cells and newer ones are 21700, which are cells you can buy. People have been doing things like stripping older Prius to replace the NiCd cells when they wear out without too much trouble. Or even replaced them with Lithium batteries to extend their range on electricity alone.
The current hot topic of "right to repair" being put into legislation could force manufacturers to accept aftermarket or refurbished batteries.
The coded parts on ICE engines are more to do with tolerances, you can't just swap diesel injectors for example because one will be a slightly different size, so the ECU needs to know it's exact flow rate so it can compensate for it.
Just depends whether manufacturers go down a "we know best, thou shalt not hack" route like Apple, or "it's your car, go nuts" like android.
And it also ignores that, at least on larger cars the batteries seem to be lasting longer than most ICE engines anyway. Running a leaf from 100% down to zero every day might not be doing it any favors, but those with >300mile ranges (and mostly only using 15% of that on the daily commute rather than nearly 100%) seem to breeze past the point where diesel cars start to eat their injectors, turbos, DMF's, DPF's, fuel pumps and whatever else. And Tesla are still talking up their next generation of batteries doing 1,000,000 miles, which really would make the idea of aftermarket batteries redundant. Likely to do 1,000,000 miles in the real world, who cares, most cars barely make it into 6 figures.
46% of households in London don’t own a car.
Similar figures here, but for different reasons.
I think London is pretty atypical though. Public transport is a lot better there than most of the country and there are strong disincentives to using a car (parking, congestion charge, jams, stressful driving).
Anecdotally the ones I know just use the buses for 9/10 trips and just have an uber account for the rest.
So in those cases is it not possible that having a summonable self-driving vehicle would cause them to use the bus less and cars more?
FunkyDunc
Stopping to charge on route would have meant no decent bike ride on the Friday and a shorter weekend overall with time spent in some random service station, or off my required route to charge. Then that would be if I was lucky enough to find a charger that worked or, a space
I have to admit, this is the only (minor) negative that I can see for me personally with most of the current crop of affordable cars i.e. shorter range. Weekends away with mates where you don't want to be farting about. I've got a mate who is a vegan and when we all get together for a weekend walking/biking it all seems to revolve around him when it comes to food and restaurants. I don't want to be that person that everyone is rolling their eyes at, because we have to start a walk from X for the EV charger or we can't start a ride yet because B.A.Nana has gone into Windermere to charge his car, or " I'm not getting a lift home from him again (late on Sunday night), cos we had to stop at Booths to charge his car and I just wanted to get home".
Got the EDF smart EV tariff set up now.
8p per kWh - 21:00 - 07:00 Mon-Fri
And all weekend.
£2.30 for 100 miles approx
17p all other times.
All other leccy sits on there too.
Was a bit of a pain administrating it - they didn't pout me on the dual tariff to start with.
https://www.edfenergy.com/electric-cars/tariffs
So in those cases is it not possible that having a summonable self-driving vehicle would cause them to use the bus less and cars more?
No, because I'd assume uber without a driver would cost about the same as uber with a driver. It's just a tool they use for those trips that aren't particularly direct via public transport, or with more people on board.
I have to admit, this is the only (minor) negative that I can see for me personally with most of the current crop of affordable cars i.e. shorter range. Weekends away with mates where you don’t want to be farting about. I’ve got a mate who is a vegan and when we all get together for a weekend walking/biking it all seems to revolve around him when it comes to food and restaurants. I don’t want to be that person that everyone is rolling their eyes at, because we have to start a walk from X for the EV charger or we can’t start a ride yet because B.A.Nana has gone into Windermere to charge his car, or ” I’m not getting a lift home from him again (late on Sunday night), cos we had to stop at Booths to charge his car and I just wanted to get home”.
Yea, but it would only annoy those mates that otherwise conveniently forget to pay you the £40 back for petrol. And as demand grows charging stations will pop up in more places, even campsites etc. Just go on accommodation search engines and search by ones with charging stations, it's already an option, so once demand reaches a critical mass they'll all have to offer it.
folk (and common sense) tells me that these vehicles have less moving parts.
Time will tell, but in theory there should be less to go wrong.
How many mechanically servicable cars are already written off or passed down the chain because of electrical faults? The number of mechanical moving parts in an electric motor vs. an ICE is tip of the iceberg. IMHO electronics form the least reliable part of a car, as there is an incredible number of components and materials, of sizes ranging down to microscopic, almost all of which must be chemically and mechanically stable to continue working. Again IMHO, there is very little about the modern electronics design and supply chain that is sustainable.