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Was that really a good idea? why on earth provoke things? What was the necessity of such a dumb ass visit? Especially at a time when the Ukraine war is going on…
Some sort of master plan to start ww3?
TBH, I think if Nancy Pelosi scares the Chinese enough to react by putting their armed forces on high alert, we should probably send her into every conflict zone, maybe the Russians would back off?
Who knew 82 year old women could be so formidable?
Apparently, Pelosi has long been an advocate for Taiwan, human rights, democracy, etc. (i.e. critical of China's behaviour). On that basis, this visit isn't really as unusual as China is making it out to be, U.S. congressional groups frequently visit Taiwan.
However, U.S. foreign policy is supposed to be the responsibility of the President, not the legislature. On those grounds, Pelosi should have heeded Biden's request to not visit. The visit isn't really achieving anything except antagonizing China.
China is making a big fuss about this for domestic political reasons. They aren't going to start a war over it. They are publicly making a big deal about moving long range missiles slightly closer to Taiwan, showing off tanks, etc. Those missiles could easily have hit Taiwan from their old bases, the public repositioning was purely for propaganda purposes. If they were seriously considering launching an attack, the preparations would be done as secretly as possible, not reported all over the news. The Chinese reaction is just propaganda designed to impress the Chinese population.
Been is reporting Chinese have set up several exclusion zones, encroaching onto taiwans sea borders whilst they conduct exercises. More than just moving some rockets.
It seems like a really stupid thing to do, gives then a reason to be more aggressive and make a big deal out of it.
And how is it ok she ignored the presidents request not to go? Or is that just all for show as well…. It was really approved but we are playing the pretend game?
Pelosi has form in really pissing off China - she went to Tiananmen Square with 2 other US politicians in 1990/1 and was arrested/frog marched out of there
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/pelosi-china-taiwan-00048352
Who knew 82 year old women could be so formidable?
Well when you are at an age when you don't have that many years left you can be. As long that is as you don't worry too much about those with their years ahead of them.
And how is it ok she ignored the presidents request not to go?
The U.S. can't stop U.S. citizens visiting other countries. Biden asked her not to. She ignored him. I think she should have listened but there's nothing Biden can do about it.
This article gets to Taiwan towards the end. Well worth reading.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1554803532104011776
Pelosi has form in really pissing off China –
Good the CCP need thorns in their side. The reaction is because they are unnerved. If the CCP were not bothered there would not be a reaction.
Whilst Pelosi is far from a unifying figure, it is nice to see someone refusing to be cowed by Xi's sabre rattling and the Taiwanese (whose opinions so often seem to be lost in all this) seem to be absolutely delighted with her visit, which should count for something.
China's economy is going through a major rough patch ATM, not sure a major armed conflict is what they want right now, especially as the West is more determined and united than it has been in a generation thanks to Ukraine.
So I suspect it's all just macho posturing for domestic consumption... I certainly hope so anyway.
So I suspect it’s all just macho posturing for domestic consumption… I certainly hope so anyway.
More likely IMO it'll follow the same arc as Russia Vs Ukraine in the near future. China will annex the sea between them and no one will stop them because no one wants a fight.
After that:
China’s economy is going through a major rough patch ATM, not sure a major armed conflict is what they want right now,
Depends how rough that gets for the population. If people begin to blame the government for their problems and dissent then the government might see a reunification with Taiwan as tool to shore up nationalism.
Well worth reading.
That was interesting, thanks for finding and sharing it.
Was that really a good idea? why on earth provoke things?
I kind of think that making clear to backwards autocratic bullies that their behaviour is unacceptable is the right thing to do.
Look at the hysterics pouring out of the CCP at the moment. The language is utterly comical ("playing with fire") and as a party responsible for literally millions of deaths they can't really take any moral high ground. Particularly given their public support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. Oh, and let's not forget that they unleashed Covid-19 on the world - whether through a lab leak or their gruesome wet markets - and then denied everything.
We might need some commodities buried under Chinese soil but the west could live quite happily without them and frankly I hope that's what happens. Let the despots rot in their own filth.
Well when you are at an age when you don’t have that many years left you can be. As long that is as you don’t worry too much about those with their years ahead of them.
reminds me a bit of this advert really
but in all seriousness, sadly I suspect that thisisnotaspoon is probably correct, but then again I believe it was a smart move to shove this issue onto the world stage now, rather than have a 'bugger, I really wished we raised this back in xxx' when it is too late.
If people begin to blame the government for their problems and dissent then the government might see a reunification with Taiwan as tool to shore up nationalism.
History is littered with examples of regimes who tried to use military adventurism to shore up domestic support, it doesn't tend to work if people's concerns are basically material (i.e. poverty) and their situation is made palpably worse by that adventurism.
Tub thumping nationalism only tends to get you so far in these circumstances.
And whilst China is (on paper at least) far more capable that Russia, the military challenge facing them is exponentially greater, Taiwan is wealthy, technologically advanced, requires a huge air and sea operation to invade and has been preparing for this for 40 years, this will be no swift easy victory.
it doesn’t tend to work if people’s concerns are basically material (i.e. poverty) and their situation is made palpably worse by that adventurism.
And yet:
History is littered with examples of regimes who tried to use military adventurism to shore up domestic support
Still, her visit was far from a private individual / tourist trip. She arrived on a us government plane and did distinctly ‘government’ type things. So whilst I agree Biden couldn’t stop her visiting Taiwan if she wanted to as a private individual, she clearly wasn’t operating as a private individual.
If some is acting like a ****, you really don’t want to give them more excuses to do it. I hope this doesn’t escalate. Thread I read in taiwans mitilary didn’t paint it in a particularly good light.
Taiwan does have National Service, although according to the guy who used to work for me, he spent most of it as a Lieutenant getting drunk with his troops at the indoor crab fishing bar (best place to get blind drunk and nobody cares ...who knew such places existed??)
History is littered with examples of regimes who tried to use military adventurism to shore up domestic support
And the CCP have shown themselves to be acutely aware of history and not wishing to repeat it, hence why I think this makes an actual invasion less, not more likely.
nickc
Full Member
TBH, I think if Nancy Pelosi scares the Chinese enough to react by putting their armed forces on high alert, we should probably send her into every conflict zone, maybe the Russians would back off?Who knew 82 year old women could be so formidable?
Not many 82 year olds kick about with her kinda escort though.
And now we have both Air forces flying around and crossing the demarkation line, with live ordnance. This could all too easily easily kick off.
Is it time to send Liz in with a multi pack of pork scratchings to calm things down ?
On one hand it's odd timing but we don't know why she really went an unofficial/ official vist to remind china and Putin that the US is not only concerned about Ukraine?
It wasn't an unofficial visit, she's there on US gov business. I think ideas that Biden and wider US strategic thinking are against this are nuts tbh.
It's absolutely uncalled for provocation.
If anything is going to encourage a war in Taiwan(that it is imminent, is a fabrication in Western minds at the moment, imo, China is in no hurry to do anything, and think in longer strategic terms than we do), it's the US over extending its reach to places it has no business being in. Taiwan/China is a problem they need to sort between themselves. US involvement is unnecessary and is an extreme danger to world peace. It will only lead to further enmity.
Also let's not pretend the US is interested in Taiwanese democracy, they are only interested in stopping Chinese domination of the chip market.
China will annex the sea between them and no one will stop them because no one wants a fight.
The U.S. navy conducts "freedom of navigation" exercises in areas that China is trying to establish dominance over. If China tried to annex the Taiwan Strait, that's the first thing the U.S. would do. That would leave China the option of allowing it, which would be a huge public humiliation, or opening fire, which would lead to the U.S. retaliating. China know this and I doubt their leadership want a shooting war with the U.S. If they did, they would have started one already.
And whilst China is (on paper at least) far more capable that Russia, the military challenge facing them is exponentially greater, Taiwan is wealthy, technologically advanced, requires a huge air and sea operation to invade and has been preparing for this for 40 years, this will be no swift easy victory.
Exactly. The Taiwan Strait is over 100 miles across. China would need to send hundreds of thousands of troops across by ship. Those ships would be extremely vulnerable to anti-ship missiles. Even if an invasion was successful, the Chinese losses would be horrendous and they would have an island of 20 million people who hate the Chinese government.
Exactly. The Taiwan Strait is over 100 miles across. China would need to send hundreds of thousands of troops across by ship.
1.4 billion v 23 million. It's not unachievable.
Also let’s not pretend the US is interested in Taiwanese democracy,
The United States gave huge support to Taiwan long before it was a western style democracy, including throughout the long period it was under martial law.
And of course government of the Republic of China in Taipei still maintains its territorial claims over all of mainland China, a point rarely mentioned when the PRC's territorial claim over the ROC is brought up.
The U.S. navy conducts “freedom of navigation” exercises in areas that China is trying to establish dominance over.
It's worth remembering that the US was enlarging its military presence in eastern Europe year on year before Russia attacked Ukraine,
1.4 billion v 23 million. It’s not unachievable.
Taiwan has over 1 million military personnel if you include reserves. They are already on the island of Taiwan, which is where the fighting would take place. Having a billion Chinese civilians on the mainland isn't much use, they aren't armed and aren't where the battle would take place. To join battle, China would need to send armed soldiers to Taiwan, hundreds of thousands of them. To do that, they would have to be put onto ships and sailed across 100 miles of ocean. The constraint on China isn't the size of the civilian population but the number of ships they have to transport troops, the relevant thing is how many soldiers China could actually land in Taiwan and supply with food and ammunition long enough to beat the Taiwanese defenders. Taiwan has a large arsenal of anti-ship missiles which would take a huge toll on the Chinese invasion fleet. It's not impossible that China would win but the cost would be utterly horrendous. It's also possible that China would suffer a humiliating defeat that would lead to the purge of the party leadership.
Also let’s not pretend the US is interested in Taiwanese democracy
There is a lot of support in the U.S. for Taiwan because it's a reasonably liberal democracy threatened by a highly repressive autocracy. That's why Pelosi is visiting. If China did attack Taiwan, the political pressure on any U.S. president to intervene would be impossible to resist. Not supporting Taiwan would be political suicide for any American leader.
I know your intentions are good fella but you are off your nut if you think Taiwan could resist the Chinese military.
But that's irrelevant anyhow, US involvement will cause a war here it won't stop it.
And don't be in any doubt that we'll see escalation in Europe, we will. Absolutely everything, should be done to avoid conflict.
Pelosi going to Taiwan is batshit mental.
China will struggle to cross 100 miles and deliver an amphibious assault without huge losses... this is why they have never done it.
Where is the evidence that China is not prepared to incur very heavy losses in a conflict?
And China is actively and significantly building up its military capabilities, what it can't achieve now it will much more likely be able to achieve in the future.
oldmanmtb2
Free Member
China will struggle to cross 100 miles and deliver an amphibious assault without huge losses… this is why they have never done it.
So all of a sudden these autocratic regimes now care about their people?
So all of a sudden these autocratic regimes now care about their people?
They might not care about the lives of soldiers and sailors but a failed invasion would lead to the Chinese leadership being purged. A prolonged battle with heavy Chinese losses might encourage other neighbouring countries to become more assertive in the face of Chinese expansionism. China has border disputes with India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, plus disputes with Japan. If a Taiwan invasion went badly, then China would be forced to do what Russia has done and draw down forces from other regions to send to Taiwan.
That's assuming that the U.S. and other democracies don't get directly involved. If they did, China would be in a naval war with pretty much all the advanced militaries in the world. It's not clear what benefits China would reap if it succeeded, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry would be destroyed which would cripple China's tech industry along with the rest of the world's. However, it's very clear that losing would lead to the toppling of the current political leadership. A Taiwan invasion would be enormously risky for China, the uncertainty about what would happen is why China hasn't tried it already.
If China and America go to war, we pretty much all die, mate.
That's the reality. The 2 of them should stay the hell away from this kinda patter. And Pelosi should be heavily criticised.
I know your intentions are good fella but you are off your nut if you think Taiwan could resist the Chinese military.
It's really not at all certain that they could actually pull off a successful invasion. The Chinese military - who have no war fighting experience at all, (they're last major shooting war was back in 1979 against the Vietnamese) and are both forbidden to exercise in strength because of how many Chinese Leaders have realised that they represent a dangerous political force, and are inward looking (to prevent civilian uprising) and like Egypt's military; more used to earning money through using soldiers as cheap labour on lucrative infrastructure projects.
They certainly have no history of amphibious warfare; would need to mount an assault larger than that of D-Day across a notoriously treacherous stretch of water 4 times as wide that's surrounded by Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines and patrolled by the US Navy. With (currently) no fleet big enough to do that role, and limited amounts of large transport aircraft capable of airlifting enough airborne troops. and as if that wasn't enough to be getting on with, there are just a couple of landing spots suitable on Taiwan as it's coastline is inhospitably rocky.
I think they've probably looked at how well it's going in Ukraine (where the Russians literally had to just step over a land border) and quietly put back on the shelf any plans they may have had for invasion.
Wendy Sherman, the US Deputy Secretary of State, is starting a tour of islands in the Pacific. She's commemorating WW2 battles with Japan in the Solomon Islands as well as visiting Samoa and Tonga.
China has been actively increasing its influence here, falling out with Australia, and has a security pact with the Solomon Islands. Western navies have been exercising their right of navigation for some time so expect some tension here too
The Chinese Communist Party will hold its 20th party Congress in October where the leader will be voted in. In all likelihood it'll remain Xi Jinpin but all being told things aren't exactly great for him at the moment and he does seem to be facing increasing internal pressures.
The Pelosi visit was a poke in the eye to Jinping and in the lead up to the Congress it's the last thing he needed. We now have a frankly ridiculous Chineze over reaction to reassert power and they've given oxygen to Pelosi's visit.
If China and America go to war, we pretty much all die, mate.
That’s the reality. The 2 of them should stay the hell away from this kinda patter. And Pelosi should be heavily criticised.
As ever, where does pacification end and defence of an innocent country facing an aggressor who won't stop with just Taiwan start?
It's an impossible choice.
The Pelosi visit was a poke in the eye to Jinping and in the lead up to the Congress it’s the last thing he needed. We now have a frankly ridiculous Chineze over reaction to reassert power and they’ve given oxygen to Pelosi’s visit.
Exactly. He set himself up as the strong man who would reassert Chinese dominance of the region. He could have just brushed off Pelosi's visit as irrelevant but he chose to make a big deal out of it. She just ignored him so now he looks weak and she looks strong. All he can do now is rant and make a show of sabre rattling but he has no realistic military options. Launching an invasion would be a disaster for China and the entire region, not launching an invasion shows how weak he really is. Sure, he can make a show of some minor sanctions but anything that really hurt Taiwan (or the U.S., Japan, Korea, etc.) would also hurt China.
the Taiwanese semiconductor industry would be destroyed which would cripple China’s tech industry along with the rest of the world’s.
I wonder if she's out there to protect her husbands recent stock acquisition ? 😉
Or... remove the rivals and your home grown companies will flourish.
I read recently that Intel are lagging behind the technology of Taiwan and South Korea.
Mmm ? Where is it she is off to next ?
I wonder if she will start winding up the Rocket man
any plans they may have had for invasion.
I believe the plans are pretty extensive and detailed, and have been for a very long time.
I agree concerning the strong reluctance on the part of China to embark on something which would certainly be no pushover.
And as you point out China has not been involved in any hostilities for nearly 45 years when it invaded a far smaller country to "teach them a lesson" for overthrowing the murderous Pol Pot regime. Despite having overwhelming numbers China barely penetrated into Vietnam and they certainly didn't hang around.
The problem is how immensely China has and is changing, in less than 10 years it will have the largest economy in the world, it is building up its military assets at a remarkable rate - in 10 years or so it will have half a dozen aircraft carriers.
Deliberately poking China in the eye is unlikely to be a wise strategy. Especially after the legacy of "a hundred years of national humiliation" by the Western powers. Engagement and reassurance is probably a wiser one.
I don't believe that we would all necessarily die if China felt sufficiently provoked to invade the ROC, but it would most certainly massively screw up the global supply chain, if you want to look at it from a purely selfish perspective.
in 10 years or so it will have half a dozen aircraft carriers
The flippant answer to this is so what? The US Navy has been operating carriers for nigh on 100 years now (USS Langley launched 1922) They've had decades of learning how to use them, how to fight from them and what they are and aren't capable of, the Chinese are starting from a single refitted Ex-Russian carrier in 2012. The Chinese Navy has less than 750 aircraft in it's entire fleet, very few of which can currently use aircraft carriers and the one that they're developing for future carrier operations? They currently have 2. The US Navy in the Pacific alone has over a 1000 aircraft, based on 7 carriers all operational now with years of experience. the US Navy as a whole as over 2500 aircraft just of it's own. It isn't a fair fight.
It's easy to forget that the US military make these sort of gigantic operations look easy, that's because it's a massive and complex organisation that has been doing this very sophisticated shit for years now. Look at the Russian experience for how badly it can go awry The Chinese at the moment at least just aren't as capable. It's just words.
having said all that. The Chinese don't really need to invade, they just need to park ships off the coast and blockade Taiwan until it's on it's knees. But that's not as tub thumping or headline grabbing and looks nothing at all like "wolf-warrior" diplomacy
The problem is how immensely China has and is changing, in less than 10 years it will have the largest economy in the world, it is building up its military assets at a remarkable rate – in 10 years or so it will have half a dozen aircraft carriers.
As Yogi Berra said, "Predictions are hard, especially about the future." Thirty-five years ago, it looked like Japan was going to pass the U.S. and become an economic superpower. Then they suffered an asset price bubble and three decades of stagnation. China has some major economic weaknesses, including the same demographic problem that doomed Japan. China might surpass the U.S. as the dominant world economy, it's also possible they will stagnate like Japan. At this point, it's impossible to know.
China is frantically trying to modernize its military. How effective they will be in combat is unknown. Their aircraft carriers are fairly irrelevant to the Taiwan situation, it's so close to the Chinese mainland that land based aircraft will be able to reach there in minutes. Similarly to all of China's modern weapons systems, China has no experience using aircraft carriers in combat. Integrating combined air-sea-land operations will be extremely difficult and will take years of practice. We shouldn't underestimate China's military, but they don't have any experience fighting a modern war with modern weapons. They may find it harder than they expect.
having said all that. The Chinese don’t really need to invade, they just need to park ships off the coast and blockade Taiwan until it’s on it’s knees.
This is a bit like the fantasy of setting up a no-fly-zone over Ukraine. A NFZ requires shooting down aircraft that try to enter the zone, i.e. NATO shooting down Russian aircraft. A blockade of Taiwan would require China to sink U.S. ships that sailed to Taiwan. A blockade is really just a euphemism for starting a war.
in 10 years or so it will have half a dozen aircraft carriers
The flippant answer to this is so what?
Well obviously I wasn't making the comment in relation to an invasion of Taiwan. I was pointing out that China is clearly determined to assert itself. A country with half a dozen aircraft carriers should not be flippantly dismissed - aircraft carriers cost astronomical amounts of money to build and maintain, very few can afford to own one let alone half a dozen. It is a measure of China's determination that it has such an aircraft carrier building programme.
aircraft carriers cost astronomical amounts of money to build and maintain,
And as others have pointed out, the arse has just fallen out of China's real estate market (a huge part of it's economy) and the largest developer propped up by the leadership has gone under with debts of $250B. I think you'd probably get evens at bookie that half of these carriers won't even get built.
China might surpass the U.S. as the dominant world economy, it’s also possible they will stagnate like Japan. At this point, it’s impossible to know.
China has had 20-25% of the World's economy for most of it's existence (in various guises) apart from say 1880-2000.
It will return to be the dominant World economic power within out lifetimes.
The Chinese don’t really need to invade, they just need to park ships off the coast and blockade Taiwan until it’s on it’s knees. But that’s not as tub thumping or headline grabbing and looks nothing at all like “wolf-warrior” diplomacy
The Chinese don't need to invade this is correct, but if they did they'll do it on their own timeline. (I don't think they've any intention of doing it any time soon anyhow. They, like the Americans, would rather the Taiwan economy and technology centres remain intact. )
Anyhow, you say the US is so experienced. The US is experienced at being the worlds bully. They also have little modern day experience of fighting a near peer. And last time the Chinese and Russians got involved in seriously backing war against the US, the US lost that war. Before that it ended up in a draw.
So, I wouldn't be so confident of their dominance in a straight up face off.
It's ridiculous conversation anyhow. Both of them need to stay the hell away from this kinda provocation.
The US is experienced at being the worlds bully.
What's the point you are making?
the US lost that war
Hang on, potential nit picking alert and without me googling to check.
Did the US not withdraw after it sort of stale mated, under terms along the lines of a ceasefire first, the north then attacked and won afterwards?
Not meant as a counter, more a piqued curiosity. I dont have much history on that one.
They also have little modern day experience of fighting a near peer.
Is it that much different to fighting a desperately weak poverty riddled country? Quite recently the US lost the Afghan war which they had been fighting for a couple of decades.
piemonster
Free Member
the US lost that warHang on, potential nit picking alert and without me googling to check.
Did the US not withdraw after it sort of stale mated, under terms along the lines of a ceasefire first, the north then attacked and won afterwards?
Not meant as a counter, more a piqued curiosity. I dont have much history on that one.
Could go into that kinda detail I guess aye. Point I'm making is that US hegemony isn't as guaranteed as some think it is.
What’s the point you are making?
Since the end of WW2 and the rise of US hegemony, all war has declined to a point that it's essentially "not a thing" any more in comparison to any other time in human history.
ernielynch
Free Member
They also have little modern day experience of fighting a near peer.Is it that much different to fighting a desperately weak poverty riddled country?
In the sense that it'll affect us badly, yes, it's much different. We might not all die as I posited yesterday. But just look at the effect the Ukraine war is having on the Energy prices. Even a small scale war between China and America would have serious global repercussions.
It should be avoided at all costs.
nickc
Full Member
What’s the point you are making?Since the end of WW2 and the rise of US hegemony, all war has declined to a point that it’s essentially “not a thing” any more in comparison to any other time in human history.
Yeah, we all get that. But US hegemony isn't alone anymore, we need to live in a world were US and Chinese hegemony can live side by side. Both their militaries are too big for anything else.
From a military perspective Russias invasion of Crimea has shown that invading a country even with a massive army, is not as easy as orthodxy said.
A well motivated defense force and relatively cheap, modern drones & antitank weapons make things much harder than many experts thought this time 6 months ago.
I dont think Xi is as ill informed as Putin, so Id expect lots of sabre rattling rather than actual war- tho sabre rattling certainly raises the liklihood of war
aircraft carriers cost astronomical amounts of money to build and maintain, very few can afford to own one let alone half a dozen. It is a measure of China’s determination that it has such an aircraft carrier building programme.
unfortunately for Aircraft carriers, drones do not cost a lot to build & maintain
just ask the Russians how vulnerable warships are to cheap drones & long range smart missiles
kimbers
Free Member
From a military perspective Russias invasion of Crimea has shown that invading a country even with a massive army, is not as easy as orthodxcy said.
A well motivated defense force and relatively cheap, modern drones & antitank weapons make things much harder than many experts thought this time 6 months ago.
I dont think Xi is as ill informed as Putin, so Id expect lots of sabre rattling rather than actual war- tho sabre rattling certainly raises the liklihood of war
I don't think there's any likelihood of war at the minute, 10-15 years down the line though is a different story. The quality of our politicians is only getting worse.
just ask the Russians how vulnerable warships are to cheap drones & long range smart missiles
Now you mention it - after the UK has just built and commissioned a couple of aircraft carriers! 😉
Although you would have thought that the UK might have learnt the lesson of smart missiles 40 years ago after the sinking of HMS Sheffield!
This isn't Korea in the 1950s. There won't be any human wave tactics; lao bai xing isn't going to take too kindly to the family's one and only son coming back in a body bag, whatever the rhetoric of the online wolf warriors.
Not having a go at you Ernie but...
Is it that much different to fighting a desperately weak poverty riddled country? Quite recently the US lost the Afghan war which they had been fighting for a couple of decades
As the US discovered 1955-1975 you can't fight an army that melts back into the population, Britain was simultaneously learning the same lesson in N. Ireland and yet the UK/US joined forces to repeat it in Afghanistan. It's the politicians rather than the military who are so often at fault
Now you mention it – after the UK has just built and commissioned a couple of aircraft carriers! 😉
The contracts were announced 15 years ago and they would have been designed years before that. Drones existed then but wouldn't have particularly been on the MoDs radar 🙂
They were designed around new gen VTOL aircraft and didn't need the steam catapults that we first demonstrated in 1950. Built with cheaper engines and without catapults meant that we could afford two carriers, the same number as China
The contracts were announced 15 years ago and they would have been designed years before that. Drones existed then but wouldn’t have particularly been on the MoDs radar
So the UK's two spanking new aircraft carriers are already obsolete. I guess that's the bad news. The good news must be that their imminent scrapping will save an astronomical fortune?
and yet the UK/US joined forces to repeat it in Afghanistan.
Why don't politicians listen to their military?
Edit: Since China currently definitely knows about drones and their capabilities why they planning to have another 3 or 4 aircraft carriers? They are not exactly cheap to build and maintain so it must surely be more than a willy waving exercise?
China is throwing a childish tantrum.'I'll hold my breath till i turn blue.....'
Tanks down the beach, posturing for nothing. Last time I checked tank rounds didnt have a range of 100 miles.
posturing for nothing
Weren't they amphibious tanks? I believe that China has modified many of her merchant ships by strengthening them to take military vehicles onboard. I would have thought that at some point amphibious tanks/fighting vehicles crews would need to have experience on beach terrain - otherwise what is the point of having amphibious vehicles?
It is obviously posturing by China but I am less convinced that their posturing means that they can't pose a threat. And presumably their posturing isn't for the likes of you and me but for the benefit of those who are more acutely aware of China's actual capabilities?
Amphibious or not tanks aren't loaded via the beach.They'll be probably lifted on, and if that being the case there will be plenty of warning.
As to experience of beach landings, they'll already have that from conducting exercises. o while the tanks are on the beach, nothing involving them is going to happen, as you say its aimed towards the Taiwanese government and military as in look at this as a scenario.
But as we've seen with the Russian military, who on paper were supposed to be 2nd top, when it all comes down to it who knows how the Chinese troops will react. The only country who we can be assured have a tested military is the US, and I reckon while China has faith in its armed forces, they'll have taken the lessons of what happened to Russia when they came up against a smaller force as in the Ukrainians.
Useful thread on Chinese military modernization.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1555205418502209536
As to experience of beach landings, they’ll already have that from conducting exercises.
The People’s Liberation Army are associated with RO-RO ferries. It sounds like a joke, but what better way to supply additional materiel on a secure coastline https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-s-navy-is-exploring-ways-to-use-ferries-for-military-landings
As to experience of beach landings, they’ll already have that from conducting exercises.
I've never stormed a beach under enemy fire but I'd bet money on the reality being a bit trickier than peacetime exercises. The ease with which Ukrainian forces took out Russian tanks with portable missiles and drones means that landing craft will be equally vulnerable as they approach a beach. Then, having established a beach-head, the Chinese forces will need to resupply before they can move inland. All those logistics vessels will be vulnerable to missile attack too. To make serious progress, China will need to capture a harbour to unload heavy equipment, but any ships docking at the harbour will be extremely vulnerable to missile attack too.
China will need to capture a harbour to unload heavy equipment
The RO-RO ferries can be used with a pontoon harbour system on any secure beach, the big thing with the system is that it's never been tried in battle
The start will be radar, comms and anti-aircraft suppression followed by air superiority and then fingers-crossed. The US has stealth capability to sort the first three, does the PLA? The J20 Mighty Dragon with mach 2 and external weapons seems to be missing the point
So the UK’s two spanking new aircraft carriers are already obsolete.
That's not really how carriers work - they are part of a massive battle group with lots of escorts, many specialised in defence. If the carrier is fighting off drones then something has gone seriously wrong. Hypersonic anti-ship missiles are a bit more of a concern though.
On the other hand war between Taiwan, China, and the USA would be good for ecosystems. The massive disruption to wrld trade would cut CO2.
We are in a climate emergency after all.
but for the benefit of those who are more acutely aware of China’s actual capabilities?
I think that's the big question isn't it? No one - not even the Chinese, are in a position to know what their forces are actually capable of. Exercises are all well and good, but at the risk of repeating it, the US military make this stuff* look way easier than it actually is.
*combined and very sophisticated operations that involves many different branches of the military working together to a plan
nickc
Full MemberI think that’s the big question isn’t it? No one – not even the Chinese, are in a position to know what their forces are actually capable of
I'm willing to bet the Chinese are acutely aware they aren't there yet. I think more importantly they'll be aware that fighting a war while their energy imports are vulnerable to blockade is more than iffy. (Pretty much their reasoning for the building of the spratly islands isn't it, so they can control the malacca straits if needed.)
Hiya Vlad, hiya pal.
Yeah I think that probably right. There's an old saying that goes along the lines of; Army General is a job where you pretend to do it for ages and then get precisely one chance to see if you're actually any good at it for real*
I don't think for a minute that the Chinese want to "chance" it. I read somewhere that the Chinese Govt really sat up and took notice of the fact that Russia was banned from the SWIFT system in a moment. I think that response really took them by surprise.
*Obviously it's a bit more pithy than that, but you get the gist.
thols2
Free Member
As to experience of beach landings, they’ll already have that from conducting exercises.I’ve never stormed a beach under enemy fire but I’d bet money on the reality being a bit trickier than peacetime exercises. The ease with which Ukrainian forces took out Russian tanks with portable missiles and drones means that landing craft will be equally vulnerable as they approach a beach. Then, having established a beach-head, the Chinese forces will need to resupply before they can move inland. All those logistics vessels will be vulnerable to missile attack too. To make serious progress, China will need to capture a harbour to unload heavy equipment, but any ships docking at the harbour will be extremely vulnerable to missile attack too.
I think comparing Taiwan to Ukraine in a military sense is probably limited tbh? Geographically they are miles apart. Taiwan is mountainous, but it is also tiny in comparison, it's the size of Belgium. It would be a completely different war. Geopolitical lessons of Ukraine are more what the Chinese will be looking at rather than on the ground miltary maneuvers. The Taiwanese would be more dug in than the Ukrainians need to be, and would have little options for re-supply once the Chinese blockade the island with a million aircraft carriers and battleships.
I also wouldn't doubt that the Chinese would have total air superiority. Only way they wouldn't is if the Americans were up for a straight up fight.
I think more importantly they’ll be aware that fighting a war while their energy imports are vulnerable to blockade is more than iffy.
Not just energy
Something we can also relate too
piemonster
Free Member
I think more importantly they’ll be aware that fighting a war while their energy imports are vulnerable to blockade is more than iffy.Not just energy
Interesting, cheers will have a read.
It's wild though isn't it, the buzzword these days really is self-sufficiency. Globalisation is a busted flush by the looks of it.