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I didnt want to clutter up the other threads but its a sign of the times that there are multiple wars ongoing atm, even if Russia/Ukraine/ Israel/ Lebabon/Palestine/ Iran/ Syria/ Turkey are all related
It seems like the HTS/SNA/FSA have captured another city
Hama, theres still a mountain range between them and the coastal ports, but its telling that Russia has cleared its ships from Tartus
I know little about the country but it seems that its another post colonial mishmash of tribes and peoples. no idea what happens next there
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcklfqret224
Someone is stirring the pot IMO. Online commentators are pointing their fingers at Turkey (NATO member) supporting the HTS whatever.
Connect the dots and a full picture will be revealed.
This is just side show because the main target is Iran and they(you know who) need to encircle Iran.
By attacking a weak Syria, they will suck in all the resources from other places essentially opening another front.
Isn't Turkey allied with Russia in Syria? Not a straight forward picture at all. IF Turkey (big IF) is pulling strings in the background its likely because its in Turkey's interest, not some grand NATO masterplan to conquer the known world
Its a confusing mess, but it is alarming how many mostly old festering conflicts are kicking off again
Isn’t Turkey allied with Russia in Syria?
Turkey plays both sides. They are historically good at focusing on the gains they can have for their own only.
Isn’t Turkey allied with Russia in Syria?
In theory following the Astana Accords, yes, Turkey, Russia Iran and to a lesser extent the USA agreed demarcation of spheres of influence, however Russia and Iran didn't respect this so a furious Erdogan has waited patiently until Assad Syria is weakened by Russia focusing on Ukraine and the damage to Hezbollah (previously sent fighters to support Assad) and Iran by Israel and is now sponsoring the current offensive by the Turkish backed SNF. Think this is a massive FU to Putin by Erdogan rather than any desire to see Assad gone.
The Turkey-backed Syrian National Army also seemed to have a truce in place with the HTS forces as they drive south. Meanwhile the SNF are also attacking the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) because Erdogan hates the Kurds, but as the SDF are US backed I cant see that going anywhere, The US are also taking the opportunity to batter any Iranian militia that attempt to cross into Syria to support Assad.
Obvs this is a massive oversimplification & v happy to be corrected. Be curious to see if there was any planning between Israel and Turkey here.
Its also a massive blow to Russia as Syria is used as the main staging post to support the destabilisation in the area which contributes to the refugee crisis as part of Putins hybrid warfare on Europe. Its is also the main support base for the massively lucrative african military support Putin has provided via Wagner or as its now called The Afrika Korps.
Sounds like the next town along from Hama ; Salamiyah has defected to the rebels, a lot of deals being struck,
Syrian regime apparently evacuated some of its air force from hama airport before it was captutured, but lots of old stuff left
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lcktiij4us2j
also a massive blow to Russia as Syria is used as the main staging post to support the destabilisation in the area which contributes to the refugee crisis as part of Putins hybrid warfare on Europe. Its is also the main support base for the massively lucrative african military support Putin has provided via Wagner or as its now called The Afrika Korps.
good points, but I wouldnt rule out further destabilisation and more refugees as a result of this
will Assad end up doing a runner to Russia?
will Assad end up doing a runner to Russia?
From what I have read, Erdogan's objectives are to create an effective buffer and see the Russians gone. Not depose Assad.
Another example of Erdogan's unhappiness with Putin was he was also very happy to give the US access to the S400 missile tech in exchange for re-inclusion in the F35 fighter programme, which I have read is the reason the Ukrainians have been so successful attacking S400 batteries.
Crossing the mountains may be too difficult? They can simply carry on south to Homs and cut off access from the coast and the Russian port and bases. Then carry on south to Damascus.
its a massive blow to Russian prestige, and humiliating defeat! They’ve simply run away. Must instil great confidence in Russia other allies its propping up. Not.
The domino’s are starting to fall.
fascinating thread here about HTS; the Jihadists that have been running Northern syria for a while and are now leading the charge, Seem to be much more organised and prepared than the Turkish backed Syrian National Army , have been negotiating with many of teh tribes and factions across syria and SO FAR been tolerant of the many different groups/ religions/ tribes
https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25jwtqs27
What happens if they do consolidate what theyve captured and whatever else they might take, though I dont know
The domino’s are starting to fall.
I doubt it but there will certainly be plenty of changes and adjustments.
Although the hegemon (NATO/US/West) still considered themselves as the ruling power that is slowly eroding in the East.
The Syria rebels may have upper for now but they are not permanent other than creating the chaos to benefit NATO.
What NATO is good at is to sow chaos (divide and conquer etc) just to establish themselves as hegemon.
Both NATO and Russia etc are fighting in many fronts; and whatever tactics used will be reciprocated.
The bottom line is that the hegemony (NATO/US) is changing and the old power is hanging on a thin thread, and they are just delusional thinking they can simply maintain their hegemony.
Erdogan only survived the last election with a thin margin but this will be his last term.
What NATO is good at is to sow chaos (divide and conquer etc) just to establish themselves as hegemon.
Both NATO and Russia etc are fighting in many fronts; and whatever tactics used will be reciprocated.
You could make an arguement that one or more of the principle member countries (the US particularly) might be engaged in some influence operations or proxy activities to counter the Russians or others. But that is not NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn't do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or "sowing chaos" all over the globe is not one of those things.
NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn’t do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or “sowing chaos” all over the globe is not one of those things.
That sounds remarkably naive, how often does a NATO country break ranks with the United States? Who gives a toss what the Italian or Polish governments, for example, have to say, compared to the decisions made by the United States President?
Destabilising governments and “sowing chaos" is one of the principle role of the CIA. It's what the US government has been doing for a hundred years.
That sounds remarkably naive
That sounds remarkably patronising
how often does a NATO country break ranks with the United States?
Whether a country does or doesn't "break ranks" with the US on a bipartisan basis is nothing to do with NATO as a whole.
Destabilising governments and “sowing chaos” is one of the principle role of the CIA. It’s what the US government has been doing for a hundred years.
I'm not arguing with that, but we are talking about NATO, not the CIA.
I’m not arguing with that, but we are talking about NATO, not the CIA.
Well I think it is safe to say that the United States government/president dictates the policies of both NATO and the CIA. And destabilisation of foreign governments is always high on their agenda.
That sounds remarkably patronising
Apologies if it does, that wasn't the intention. Although personally I found your "shadowy Bond villains" comment in response to what I thought was a perfectly valid point made by chewkw rather patronising.
Well I think it is safe to say that the United States government/president dictates the policies of both NATO and the CIA.
On that basis, if it were true, you could also conflate the US Forest Service, the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Federal Aviation Authority with NATO. I don't think it is "safe to say" that the US government dictates the policies of NATO. They are, undoubtedly the most influential member (currently - who knows under Trump), but there are plenty of disagreements, bun fights and policy differences between member states. You've only got to look at the opposition Turkey and Hungary had regarding the accession of Finland and Sweden, France's ring fencing of it's nuclear capability outside NATO, widespread internal disagreement over NATO actions in Kosovo, Libya etc.
I'm going to bow out now, as I don't want to derail a thread about Syria with a side discussion about the evils of NATO.
good points, but I wouldnt rule out further destabilisation and more refugees as a result of this
Turkiye has preventing migration to Turkiye as one priority.
It would be good to consider an Assad-free, democratic, Syria that promotes the return of professionals who could rebuild their country
You could make an arguement that one or more of the principle member countries (the US particularly) might be engaged in some influence operations or proxy activities to counter the Russians or others. But that is not NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance of 32 countries, all with a say about what the alliance does or doesn’t do. Acting like a cabal of shadowy Bond villains secretly waging war or “sowing chaos” all over the globe is not one of those things.
They are ALL engaged in proxy activities countering each others, which is Normal. Why the surprise?
NATO is a "defensive alliances" (in name only) that is expanding in the name of "peace" by imposing on others whether they like it or not.
Remember, before there is peace there will always be war and destruction, and when there is no one else left to fight they will then focus on their own citizen.
Russia etc are just applying the more explicit approach while their counterpart NATO is applying a more implicit approach of so called "influence".
The problem is that such hegemonic approach is already outdated and the whole world is tired of it.
They are ALL engaged in proxy activities countering each others, which is Normal. Why the surprise?
If you think you detected surprise in my post you are mistaken
NATO is a “defensive alliances” (in name only) that is expanding in the name of “peace” by imposing on others whether they like it or not.
Why did Finland want to join NATO after decades of opposition to doing so? Who do they want to impose on? Sweden, why did they abandon decades of neutrality? Poland? Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? etc. etc. What motivated them to join, of their own free democratic will with widespread public support? You seem determined to turn a thread about Syria into one about the perceived evils of NATO. I suggested above that we bring this thread back on topic. I am suggesting it again. Why don't you start a thread about it if you want to discuss it, instead of derailing this one? I'll happily discuss it there with you if you do, but not on here. I shouldn't have risen to the bait this time, I won't again 🙂
President Erdogan's other priority is to get in and out before President-elect Trump takes the reins.
Trump sanctioned Turkiye in 2019 for an invasion of Syria; the US and Turkiye back different rebel groups https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50050264
russian bombers have blown up the bridge to Homs from Hama , (russia has also been doing its usual tactics of bombing hospitals in idlib)
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lclhinntvc2i
a large column of rebels was reported to be about halfway to Homs already
meanwhile regine loyalists are fleeing Homs for Damascus
https://bsky.app/profile/mschaub.bsky.social/post/3lcllzgye7k2y
https://bsky.app/profile/oalexanderdk.bsky.social/post/3lclcxwihic2g
looks like Assad has blown up the bridge to Homs from Hama
Claims it was Russian aircraft that hit the bridge. Seems to be a desperate attempt to stop a very rapid advance along the key ground line of communication in the country. It does feel as if the speed and and surprise of this could overwhelm the Syrian forces. Interesting assessment below, lifted from X. None of this bodes well for the Syrian people. HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad's regime and too many regional powers stirring the pot with very shitty sticks.
"The capture of Ar Rastan by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led forces marks a pivotal shift in the Syrian conflict, with major implications for both the Assad regime and the broader strategic landscape. Ar Rastan is situated along the M5 highway, the most critical ground line of communication in Syria, connecting Damascus, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo. Losing control of this key city disrupts the regime’s ability to transport troops, supplies, and reinforcements between these regions, leaving its northern positions more isolated and its control over central Syria increasingly vulnerable. Adding to the urgency is the nearby bridge over the Orontes River, a vital chokepoint for regime logistics. Russian airstrikes targeting this bridge reflect its importance, as Moscow attempts to slow HTS’s consolidation and prevent further disruption to supply routes.
HTS’s successful operation demonstrates a growing sophistication in its tactics, likely supported by coordination with Turkish-backed factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA). By exploiting vulnerabilities in the overstretched Syrian Arab Army (SAA), HTS has managed to execute a rapid and effective offensive, highlighting the regime’s faltering ability to defend key positions across multiple fronts. For the Assad regime, losing Ar Rastan is a serious setback. It not only disrupts vital logistics but also serves as a symbolic blow to its narrative of stability and control in central Syria. Even with Russian air support and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah and Liwa Fatemiyoun, the regime appears increasingly incapable of holding territory against well-coordinated opposition forces.
The strategic consequences of this development extend beyond the battlefield. Ar Rastan’s location gives HTS a springboard for further offensives, potentially threatening Homs or even areas closer to Damascus. Losing control of the M5 highway underscores the Assad regime’s fragility, revealing how reliant it is on external support to sustain its operations. For Russia, the loss of Ar Rastan adds pressure to an already strained intervention, as its military resources are stretched thin by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Similarly, Iran’s influence could face challenges, as the regime’s setbacks jeopardize key supply lines essential for supporting Hezbollah and other allied forces.
HTS’s growing dominance raises international concerns. As a designated terrorist organization, its expanded control undermines efforts toward a political resolution in Syria and complicates relationships within the broader opposition. HTS’s extremist ideology and history of abuses also risk alienating other opposition groups and could provoke harsher military responses from the regime and its allies. Turkey, which indirectly enables HTS through its support for the SNA, now faces a difficult balancing act. Ankara’s actions risk straining its commitments under the Astana peace process and complicating its relations with regional and international partners.
The humanitarian impact of this battle is severe. Thousands of civilians face displacement, compounding the already dire crisis in Syria. With the likelihood of regime counteroffensives and intensified Russian airstrikes, the risks to civilian lives and infrastructure are immense. The capture of Ar Rastan not only shifts the local balance of power but also highlights the fragile and volatile nature of Syria’s ongoing conflict".
HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime
Not sure. They are definitely not the Al-Qaeda loyalists they were and have purged all Al-Qaeda out. Their success is because they have negotiated with the local tribes and protected the Christians during their advance and avoided conflict with the Kurdish SDF. They have carefully administered their territories. Whether that transfers to greater power and Al-Julani doesnt revert, or is assassinated, remains to be seen though.
If HTS capture Homs they will cut the main Iran -Hezbollah supply line which will have massive implications.
HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime and too many regional powers stirring the pot with very shitty sticks.
About the only thing I've read about the Syrian situation that I can confidently say is correct is that we should not assume that the enemy of our enemy is our friend. This is the situation in every intelligence agency around the globe:
Another example of Erdogan’s unhappiness with Putin was he was also very happy to give the US access to the S400 missile tech in exchange for re-inclusion in the F35 fighter programme, which I have read is the reason the Ukrainians have been so successful attacking S400 batteries.
The history of Turkiye's acquisition of S400 has always been mired in controversy. When the Syrian war was raging in 2013, President Erdogan wanted Patriot missile batteries on the Syrian border, which would be supplied and crewed by NATO members.
There were various diplomatic incidents including protests and attacks on German Patriot crews https://www.dw.com/en/why-were-german-soldiers-attacked-in-turkey/a-16547390 and the US and Germany withdrew Patriot batteries from Turkiye.
Turkiye gave an ultimatum, Patriot or we'll buy S400, which is where we are now. The batteries aren't NATO-compatible and the US was concerned that a mix of F35 and S400 risked giving F35 technical info gleaned from S400 to Russia, which was a massive carrot for Russia
IMHO a deal should have been made to transfer Turkiye's S400 to Ukraine a couple of years ago, but they're currently looking at a storage and inspection regime
i cant keep up with all the TLAs
Some FLAs there too ^^ 🙂
HTS seem to be as unsavoury as Assad’s regime
Not sure. They are definitely not the Al-Qaeda loyalists they were and have purged all Al-Qaeda out. Their success is because they have negotiated with the local tribes and protected the Christians during their advance and avoided conflict with the Kurdish SDF. They have carefully administered their territories. Whether that transfers to greater power and Al-Julani doesnt revert, or is assassinated, remains to be seen though.
From the TwitterX piece in BUTRs post ^^ it seems that at least some of the risks to civilian lives will be from war, rather than HTS directly.
HTS clearly has a history but doesn't come close to Assad's, e.g. 1400 killed in Ghouta with chemical weapons (2013), ignoring UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to protect all Syrians (2015) http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/2254 , 300 chemical weapon attacks, 250k civilians dead, 11mn forced from their homes (2021) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bashar-al-assad-syria-evidence-war-crimes-60-minutes-2021-02-21/
i cant keep up with all the TLAs
OK I done a wikipedia...
HTS Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham Jihadists with good PR that have been running Idlib province pretty well by all accounts , certainly better than Syrian government did, spearheading the current insurgency well organised, equipped and coordinated and have negotiated alliances with quite a few other groups and have been careful to allow multifaith worship in Idlib
SDF Syrian Democratic Forces Kurdish coalition of rebels at one time supplied by USA , have been fighting IS and Turkish troops, loosely allied with HTS includes YPG; People's Defense Units kurdish miltia that was funded by America (Trump in fact)
SNA Syrian National Army Essentially a Turkish rebrand of the Free Syrian Army, armed, trained and directed by Turkey have fought kurds and not particularly tolerant of other minorities, Yazidis etc
PKK Kurdish workers party Designated terror group by Turkey, USA, EU operate in NE syria, obscure relationship to Russia and bizarely links to Turkish intelligence
All of the above tend to be coalitions of different groups with their own internal politics
SAA Syrian Army Assads army trained and equipped by Russia and Iran, has issues with corruption and morale have done a lot of strategic withdrawling n the last few day
Theres also Hezbolahh who have recently sent some of what troops they have left after Israels bombing of lebanon
Iran also have a lot of militias in NE syria that have been helping SAA since the last civil war but Israel have been bombing them a lot lately to try and stop their supply of weapons to Lebanon - theres also IRG Iranian Revolutionary guard there too an IRG general was killed last month along with quite a few IRG troops by HTS
Russia urging citizens to leave:
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/12/06/russia-tells-its-nationals-to-leave-syria
also wozers there appears to be insurgents popping up south of Damascus
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcmurugaq22a
why do you keep referring to the native spelling of Turkey rather than the anglicised version? Have I missed something?
I am assuming that it is because it might otherwise cause unnecessary confusion this particular time of year. The whole situation is complicated enough as it is.
Turkey plays both sides. They are historically good at focusing on the gains they can have for their own only.
Very much this. They’re bloody good at it! It helps when you’ve got a gateway to international trade running through the middle of your country.
If you want to read a couple of fantastic and fascinating books about the way some countries behave the way they do, and why, both of these are essential
I am assuming that it is because it might otherwise cause unnecessary confusion this particular time of year
An excellent bon mot, bravo
Those tim marshall books look like stocking fillers 'for madame '
It doesn't look good for Assad. I sincerely hope what comes after isn't worse.
It doesn’t look good for Assad
Channel 4 news showed last night that the Assad troops withdrew so quickly they left a squadron of fighter jets sat on the tarmac
I sincerely hope what comes after isn’t worse
Good luck with that. Since the Arab Spring. Pretty much everyone who’s come to power has been worse than those that preceded them. Or certainly no better, as far as most of the population are concerned. Of all the lunatics involved in Syria, there aren’t any ‘good guys’. It’s just different flavours of psychotic fundamentalist nutters
When I hear on the news what HTS are doing, I immediately think, “ What has Harry The Spider been up to now?”
...why do you keep referring to the native spelling of Turkey rather than the anglicised version? Have I missed something?
nickc has it
We're ignoring 100years of history, maybe because of some colonial-thing. Turkiye is the correct spoiling, but I don't bother with the accents on the "U" and "I" 🙂
What's in a name? It's one more letter and even the US, that mangles every language, agreed to the change
Ernie isn't a million miles off
...explaining that among the reasons for the image rebrand was the association with the bird traditionally associated with Christmas, New Year or Thanksgiving.
It also pointed out the Cambridge English Dictionary's definition of one of the meanings of the word as "something that fails badly" or "a stupid or silly person". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61671913
Some names don't translate well, would you refer to German Chancellor Helmut Cabbage, or Kohl?
Except he was universally known as "Birne" (pear) on account of the shape of his head!
Apparently Truss is a direct translation of lettuce
Although to be fair I'm fairly sure the ex German chancellor lasted longer than a cabbage
Except he was universally known as “Birne” (pear) on account of the shape of his head!
Bernie Cabbage! Who wouldn't vote for him?!
i mean Putin always sounded like putain
so who knows what militias have risen uo and taken southern districts from the SAA
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lco4u7hvck2m
and Russia is moving heavy equipment to Tartus, no idea how they'll get it out from there though
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcnt3k6nc224
It's like Game of Thrones with sand. Not sure who my favourite is at the moment.
How far is tartus from Ukraine?
We’re ignoring 100years of history, maybe because of some colonial-thing. Turkiye is the correct spoiling, but I don’t bother with the accents on the “U” and “I” ?
Just did a search, nothing like that, also for the benefit of Ernie the country came first then the bird (because guinea fowl were traded from there).
It's an anglicisation, it goes as far back as middle English so it's not something I'm gonna be kept up with white guilt about. It's like Germans calling my country Schottland, that works in their language so whatever.
Anyway, seems I did miss the memo so I learned something today. Türkiye it is.
How far is tartus from Ukraine?
about 100km as the Bayaktar flies (via Turkey/ Türkiye) As the bosphorus is closed to russian warships they can't get that stuff back to russia very easily , even if they were willing to move the ships back to port and risk drone attack.
It’s like Game of Thrones with sand. Not sure who my favourite is at the moment.
Needs more:
a) Dragons
b) Shagging
How far is tartus from Ukraine?
several thousand miles by boat!
A video that fails to mention Turkeys influence
about 100km as the Bayaktar flies
100km ? Dont you mean a 1000km, as its pretty much the width of Turkey then some more
yes sorry 1000km!
looks like SAA sre making s fight of it and digging in around Homs with russians bombing rebel positions around the city
meanwhile rebels in the south are sweeping up and just a few km from central Damascus!
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lcpsaxc24k2z
those regimes that Russia's Africa Corps are currently propping up; Mali, Niger, CAR, Burkina Faso etc all suddenly wondering how reliable they are and a lot of insurgents wondering how to test that
good summary of why syria has collapsed so quickly
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/05/syria-assad-regime-collapsing-quickly/
summary; economy & living standards have collapsed, government & military are corrupt narco enterprises & HTS have trained and equipped its own elite units, especially drone brigade.
what I'm not seeing anywhere is who funds/equips HTS?
Turkey I thought?
I sincerely hope what comes after isn’t worse.
Of course it will. Give it a couple of years and it will be like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
Then the US will go in and 'save the people', and thus the US has the base it so wanted with its ports in the eastern Med with close access to the black sea.
Turkey I thought?
i don't think so, they've actually fought with turkey and their proxy the SNA
Then the US will go in and ‘save the people’, and thus the US has the base it so wanted with its ports in the eastern Med with close access to the black sea.
not sure there's much appetite in America for that, and trump couldn't care less about the med
Of course it will. Give it a couple of years and it will be like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
On this subject - was life better for ordinary Afghans when the Russians were in charge than they are today? My impression is that they were, but I wasn't really paying attention at the time.
The U.S. Sixth Fleet is already based in Italy, with close access to the Black Sea. Turkey is a NATO member and controls access between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Syria makes zero difference to U.S. access to the Black Sea. It is a major blow to Russia's claim to be a world power, however, Putin must be utterly raging at the humiliation.
BBC News has just shown footage of them toppling statues inside Damascus and reporting Assad’s troops are abandoning their positions and leaving their tanks and armour behind, which the rebels have now captured and turned on them
They then repeated a statement from the regime saying that Assad is still at his desk in Damascus and personally coordinating the fight against the rebels.
Really?
On this subject – was life better for ordinary Afghans when the Russians were in charge than they are today?
Dont know, but with 1 to 3 million civilian deaths it was still a **** show.
I sincerely hope what comes after isn’t worse.
While I’ll be glad to see Assad go, the history of revolutions doesn’t paint a hopeful picture for at least the next few years.
The U.S. Sixth Fleet is already based in Italy, with close access to the Black Sea. Turkey is a NATO member and controls access between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Syria makes zero difference to U.S. access to the Black Sea.
Oh come on, they've only got 40 naval bases, I'm sure they'd be happy with one more.
Empires need these things.
Wikipedia only lists Turkey as supporting HTS, since 2017.
Strong rumours that Russian naval forces have been given the order to abandon Tartus (for realsies this time) and a private plane has left Damascus airport with unknown occupants heading for the UAE.
Obviously huge 'fog of war' caveats apply but this really could be it.
Dang that was fast!
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3lcqczdbru22n
I guess it's looking like take a deep breath and hoping against hopewhat is next, isnt worse.
The bluesky link via the guardian looks very much like it's over for the regime
Intrigued as to how Russia retrieves equipment without Ukraine putting it on the bottom of the med or black sea
worry is that Russia had been selling (stolen Ukrainian) grain too Syria, if by they stop now will add to Syrias problems
where do russian ships go? black sea still blocked to them by Turkeys , so sail all the way round Scandinavia?
can they go any where else in Africa?
if they're abandoning tartus that also means airbase at Latakia which is as big loss of airpower for Russia across the med and Africa