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Some stuff happening in Syria:
The Russian cargo ship Sparta has been sitting off Tartus for several days now and doesn't appear to have permission to dock from Syrian authorities. There is materiel waiting on the dock for loading and this is an interesting indicator that all is not going well diplomatically.
The last Russian submarine, the Kilo-class Novorossiysk, left Tartus on 2nd Jan and was monitored off Portugal on the 4th, presumably heading home https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/after-loss-of-tartus-russia-now-has-no-submarines-in-the-mediterranean/
NATO will be happy that there aren't any Russian subs in the Med.
Evacuation operations, however, are continuing just along the coast at the Hmeimim airbase, which will be lighter kit and personnel.
The US and France are working with Turkey to avoid a potentially devastating blow to stability should Turkey take the opportunity to assault western-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) also guard IS prisoners in Syria.
Syria doesn't need an externally-manufactured split in the various factions before they can be brought together as a democratic nation https://www.reuters.com/world/us-french-troops-could-secure-syrias-northern-border-syrian-kurdish-official-2025-01-08/
President-Elect Trump sanctioned Turkey over incursions into Syria during his last term and would probably do so again
A follow up to the status of Tartus...
Russia's 49 year lease has been ended by the new authorities in Syria
On Tuesday, after news broke of the cancelation of Russia's long-term port lease, Sparta II entered the inner harbor and berthed next to the equipment stockpile. Satellite imaging will soon confirm whether the vessel begins loading out the staged vehicles for shipment. The next destination, whether in Russia or in another part of the Mediterranean, remains to be seen. https://maritime-executive.com/article/syria-s-new-government-cancels-russian-port-lease-at-tartus
Syrian authorities are also dismantling the amphet drug manufacturing and distribution network
...Russia's only substantial naval base in the Med and an export route for Syria's drug trade is closed for that sort of business. Hopefully other business will flourish there to the benefit of all Syrians
The EU has been making overtures to the Syrian leadership and has agreed in principle to lift sanctions, although problems with maritime boundaries need to be hammered out involving Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Syria
20 countries have also agreed to ensure post Al-Assad success
In a statement agreed by 20 countries, including Syria, most Arab and Western states, but excluding the United States as diplomats said the administration was still defining policy, the participants said they would work to "ensure the success of the post-Assad transition in the framework of a process that is Syrian-led and Syria-owned in the spirit of the fundamental principles of U.N. Security Council resolution 2254."
They would also "provide the support it requires to ensure terrorist groups cannot re-establish a safe haven in Syrian territory."https://www.reuters.com/world/syrian-minister-makes-first-trip-eu-powers-look-aid-transition-2025-02-13/
In the same week AP reports that, "Putin has a ‘constructive’ conversation in first call with Syria’s new leader, Kremlin says"
Interesting interview with the new Syrian leader on the rest of politics - leading, with Campbell and Stewart.
Turkiye and the Kurdish PKK announced a ceasefire in SE Turkiye last week after 40 years of terrorism.
Turkiye's attacks in the Kurdish NE of Syria shouldn't be necessary and it probably suits them to avoid sanctions imposed by President Trump who acted during his first presidency. Having said that, sporadic outbursts between the Kurdish US-backed SDF and Turkish forces have been happening as recently as yesterday
This follows efforts by the US and France to stabilise the factions and talks between Syria and Turkey to develop a defence pact with Turkish bases established in Syria
If that peace holds then Syria will be more stable, but there are diehards of course
There's also been a pro-Assad insurgency in the Latakia region in the last couple of days. This will make things less stable and slow down the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Around 200 people have now been killed and curfews have been imposed in Homs, Latakia and Tartous. Russia's Khmeimim Air Base is at Latakia and their naval base is at Tartous. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports that the insurgency started when Government security forces carrying out a trawl for weapons were attacked
Mass demonstrations were staged in different Syrian cities, where demonstrators expressed their support of the security operation by security forces and members of the Syrian Ministry of Defence in the Syrian coastline.
AND
Separately, gunmen attacked members of the criminal security branch in Latakia, where SOHR activists have reported hearing explosions, which were caused by attacks with RPGs and grenades. However, no casualties have been reported.
AND
Furthermore, a group of tens of security members surrendered to Russian forces stationed in Hmeimim base, after having been besieged near Hmeimim bridge for hours. (Source:) https://www.syriahr.com/en/357342/
Things have moved on in Syria.
HTS doesn't have the strength alone to deal with the pro-Assad groups and so the coalition of militias has stepped up. Unfortunately that's led to revenge killing, which is to be expected from groups that have been subject to years of chemical and other attacks and that don't have a full spectrum of military training.
President Sharaa has promised to deal with those responsible, but that's a long tightrope while holding a coalition of those same militias together, which suits the purposes of other states that have lost influence in Syria.
Syria's interim President Ahmed Sharaa said mass killings of members of ousted President Bashar al-Assad's minority sect were a threat to his mission to unite the country, and promised to punish those responsible, including his own allies if necessary.
AND
He did not identify the foreign power, but pointed to "parties that had lost out from the new reality in Syria", an apparent reference to long-time Assad ally Iran, whose embassy in Damascus is still closed. Tehran has rejected any suggestion it was involved in the violence.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-syrian-leader-sharaa-says-killings-alawites-threaten-unity-vows-justice-2025-03-10/
This week has also seen a deal struck with the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This fits with the Turkiye/PKK ceasefire ^^ and gives a degree of stability should President Trump decide to withdraw US troops again, which he is planning to do https://theconversation.com/syria-integration-deal-with-kurds-brings-relief-after-days-of-bitter-violence-wracks-war-torn-country-251855
Trump's first decision was made in 2018 and wasn't a great success. IS fighters escaped from SDF custody and he ended up putting more US troops in to restore order after SDF forces came under attack as others sought to fill the US vacuum.
This time is a wholly different background and will give the Syrian economy access to the oil-rich NE. Turkiye has a large part to play and has set ground conditions for a greater chance of success. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-age-turkish-relations-syria
Iran is more isolated from its proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah to the west, so the middle-east has an opportunity for more peace with fewer refugee crises
Israel has doubled down on its invasion of Syrian territory by bombing Syrian air force bases that were being surveyed by Turkiye as advanced bases for their own forces.
Israel has used Syrian air space for access to bomb other middle-eastern countries with tacit access agreement from Russia. The thought of that access being denied by Turkiye's defences is causing a problem for Israel
President Erdogan has a history of comments that don't amount to invasion but of support for Palestine, which won't endear him to Israel, e.g. this from July 2024,
Turkey must be “very strong so that Israel can’t do these things to the Palestinians,” the Turkish leader said of the war. “Just as we entered [Nagorno-]Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we might do the same to them. There is nothing we can’t do. We must only be strong.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkeys-erdogan-appears-to-issue-open-threat-to-invade-israel-over-war-in-gaza/
Middle-eastern nations are stepping up support for Syria after a luke-warm response from the west.
Qatar was going to fund a public sector salary increase in Syria, but needed US sanctions to be loosened. The change in US administration effectively stopped that making Syria reliant on aid, rather than self-governance
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's debts to the World Bank, three people familiar with the matter said, paving the way for the approval of millions of dollars in grants for reconstruction and to support the country's paralysed public sector.
Last month, Qatar announced a plan to provide Syria with gas via Jordan to improve the nation's meagre electricity supply, a move that sources told Reuters had Washington's nod of approval. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-plans-pay-off-syrias-world-bank-debts-sources-say-2025-04-14/
I posted this on the Gaza thread because it is relevant to Gaza but it is also at least as relevant to Syria.
Operation Timber Sycamore
Unfortunately, Professor Sachs is known for as many errors of judgement as good calls and he has an unshakeable belief in his own credibility. He's primarily an economist
His theme of several years is that US foreign policy caused Russia to invade Ukraine. He's suggested that the US was responsible for breaching the Nord Stream pipelines and that Covid-19 originated in US labs and he's been a guest on a RFKjr podcast
Oh good, another conspiracy theorist crank. Tankie to boot.
Oh good, another conspiracy theorist crank. Tankie to boot.
You think that Operation Timber Sycamore is a "conspiracy theory" which is not real?
Well let's dismiss facts if they don't fit into our preferred narrative, eh?
Is that what I said?
Syria is looking increasingly unstable thanks to actions both within and without the country
Assadists continue to be hunted, leading to attacks on the Druze community who protected their own community during Al Assad's regime rather than outright supporting Assad (unlike the Alawite community ^^). There are also religious differences of opinion between the majority Sunni and other communities that complicate matters
Israel has stepped in to protect the Druze by arming them and attacking Syria by air, but the reality here seems to be that Israel benefits from an unstable Syria as does Russia. It would be interesting to hear if the Druze community welcomes Israel's assistance, especially as there are Druze members of the current Syrian Government, military and police
Sweida* borders Jordan but not Israel. Many of its residents who protested against the Assad regime in recent years have also protested against Israel’s airstrikes and military push into the country since the fall of the government to Sharaa’s rebel forces. https://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-government-said-to-reach-deal-to-fully-integrate-southern-druze-province/
*A Druze-majority province
In February the US began planning its withdrawal from Syria. ISIS has already shown a willingness to fill the vacuum exactly as happened under Trump v1.0 in 2019 when c800 ISIS fighters escaped from custody.
Around 9,000 ISIS prisoners and 40,000 refugees are in the US-backed area. Israel would prefer the US to stay https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726
Good developments:
French container shipping company CMA-CGM has signed an agreement to develop the Latakia docks, including the Tartus port area which is minority-occupied by Russian forces https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/05/01/syria-signs-30-year-port-deal-with-shipping-giant_6740807_19.html
CMA-CGM is quarter-owned by Turkish company Yildrim. Turkiye is planning an oil pipeline to tap into enormous potential in Syria, whose oil production has dropped to around 5% of turn-of-the-century production.
President Erdogan publicly supports the plight within Gaza, but Turkiye also trades with Israel. Israel doesn't want a stable, openly-critical Syria on its borders
The US has a policy on Syria at long last become clear with President Trump announcing that he'll lift all sanctions, which should be a good thing
The problem is that it doesn't appear that anyone outside the White House got a look at the memo and don't know what to remove; it's massively complicated with some sanctions in place for decades, some imposed via Congress and some on other governments and companies in those countries https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-big-syria-announcement-surprised-his-own-sanctions-officials-2025-05-14/
Israel has been sidelined "as Trump declared an end to sanctions on Syria and called for a normalization of relations with the new government in Damascus, which Israel regards as a barely disguised jihadist regime." That will cause Israel problems in their occupation of part of Syria and attacks on Syrian military bases and materiel. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bypassed-by-trump-israel-dismayed-silent-2025-05-14/
It'll be a while before anyone understands the ins and outs, although Turkiye and others are beginning to chart "roadmaps"
Potential investors https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/too-good-be-true-investors-eye-syria-after-trump-sanctions-move-2025-05-14/
Some more Syria news coming out of the US:
Former jihadist fighters are being allowed into the Syrian army on the basis that they're better there than free to be absorbed into IS and other organisations. China is concerned, which probably helped with the US decision,
Three Syrian defence officials said that under the plan, some 3,500 foreign fighters, mainly Uyghurs from China and neighbouring countries, would join a newly-formed unit, the 84th Syrian army division, which would also include Syrians. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-gives-nod-syria-bring-foreign-jihadist-ex-rebels-into-army-2025-06-02/
US forces will be reduced from eight military bases to one, in line with US inward-looking policies. This seems to be a missed opportunity given that Syria has tremendous business possibilities in rebuilding infrastructure and society, which would in turn reduce the refugee crisis and make Syria more self-sufficient.
The US only has about 2000 troops in Syria now, so it'll be interesting see how many stay. Some materiel has already been moved back to the US https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-scale-down-its-military-bases-syria-envoy-says-2025-06-03/
One infrastructure project that is struggling is the Syrian power grid. It's been systematically stripped over the years of war, even pylons have been felled and sold for scrap by gangs who are often armed. A Qatar-led consortium (President Trump's aircraft donor of choice) is running the project but is replacing stuff only for it to be looted. Troops, business opportunities, blah, blah https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-qatars-7-billion-power-plan-hinges-fixing-its-grid-2025-06-02/
Israel continues to attack Syria based on flimsy evidence. A stable Syria isn't what they want next door https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-two-projectiles-crossed-syria-towards-israel-2025-06-03/
Wasim al-Assad, cousin of former-President Bashar al-Assad and sanctioned in both the US and EU, has been arrested in Syria
He's been recognised as a major drug dealer in the former regime's Amphet/Captagon international trade for a few years
In March, Israel bombed Syrian airbases before Turkiye could consider moving forces there and a hotline between the two was established in April to avoid misunderstandings over Syria
Talk to resolve possible flashpoints have been happening for some time with another round of talks scheduled a few weeks ago
Turkiye stopped deployment of materiel that could have included radar and AD systems until the diplomacy was concluded, which may have been part of Israel's plan to keep the timing of its initial raid on Iran quiet for as long as possible.
Turkiye was apparently notified in advance of Israel's action by the US according to "sources" to keep the peace (reported in some media)
PS too late now, but the previous post is TWO links, not one as it appears in STW's wayward editing format
There are ongoing peace discussions between Syria and Israel that could form part of the Abraham Accords (the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab states). The Accords have spluttered because of the current conflict in Gaza, but this is a positive move for the region.
Syria is conflicted internally because a full peace agreement might limit Turkiye's influence in favour of the US and Israel, which doesn't sit well with pro-Turkiye factions and there are Syrian Druze factions too (an Israel ally), but definite moves towards peace in some form are happening.
One of Israel's red-lines is that the occupied Golan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967, remain under Israel's control. There is a UN "buffer zone" there as well that Israel occupied more recently. That should be fairly easy to re-establish which would be a step toward greater understanding
Reported in various middle-east media
Wild fires have been raging in the Latakia region for several days.
Turkiye and Jordan have been assisting with fire fighters and air support because the area is mined, littered with ordnance and is hazardous for fire fighting on the ground
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250707-syria-wildfires
There is a UN "buffer zone" there as well that Israel occupied more recently.
I think I read in a Jeremy Bowen book that this is a frequent and long-standing Israeli tactic, that if there's any neutral zone they'll occupy it, or if certain activities are banned in a border zone they'll do those activities, in order to establish that the neutral zone is theirs or to provoke a response they can then escalate. 🙁
There are ongoing peace discussions between Syria and Israel that could form part of the Abraham Accords (the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab states). The Accords have spluttered because of the current conflict in Gaza, but this is a positive move for the region.
Stated without irony, apparently.
The Sweida region of Syria continues to be a conflict zone (see previous https://singletrackmag.com/forum/off-topic/syria-4/paged/5/#post-13569937 ) but this time inside the city of Sweida and between Bedouin and Druze peoples in the mainly Bedouin east.
Syrian army units moved in to the city to deal with the violence but came under attack both from local and Israeli forces. Israel is maintaining its policy of protecting Druze people, which is a moot point with the Druze population, while not preventing sectarian violence between local groups.
Israel doesn't want an organised army on its border, especially one that has been linked to AQ and IS in the past and that is governed by what Israel regards as "jihadists".
The problem with Israel continuously fostering chaos is that if the fragile peace fails more widely between different groups it could lead either to the downfall of the Syrian government and a power vacuum, or a neighbouring country stepping in with support. Neither of these are necessarily better options for Israel; a stable Syria buffering against Iran and bordering a UN DMZ with Israel has to be better, doesn't it?
Following on from the violence in Sweida city ^^
Israel, which has struck Syria several times in the name of protecting the Druze, carried out its latest strikes after influential Druze Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri issued a statement accusing government troops of breaching a ceasefire and urging fighters to confront what he described as a barbaric attack.
According to wikipedia Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri holds an hereditary position and a split has occurred within the Druze religious leadership during his tenure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikmat_al-Hijri
Not only did he split the Druze religious leadership, but it's convenient to regard him as more legitimate than other leaders. It's never been official, but polling suggests that Syrian Druze people would prefer if Israel kept out of Syria
The Druze spiritual leadership said in a written statement on Tuesday morning that it would allow Syrian forces to enter Sweida city to stop the bloodshed, calling on armed groups to surrender their weapons and cooperate with incoming troops.
But hours later, al-Hajri, a vocal opponent of the new Syrian leadership, said the statement had been "imposed" on them by Damascus and that Syrian troops had breached the arrangement by continuing to fire on residents.
"We are being subject to a total war of extermination," he said, calling on all Druze "to confront this barbaric campaign with all means available".
And just to underline one of the problems facing the newly-formed Syrian government; restricted air traffic movement and its effect
DAMASCUS, July 16 (Reuters) - Poor infrastructure, regional conflict and sporadic Israeli airstrikes are holding back more airlines from returning to Syria, industry officials told Reuters, hampering efforts to rebuild a shattered economy after 14 years of civil war.
11 foreign airlines to fly into Syria this month vs 3 a year ago
But scheduled flights seen at 58% of July 2010 levels
Regional conflict and infrastructure problems pose challenges
Israel doing Israel stuff right now
https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lu3kskpaoc2b
Yep, more Israeli warmongering bullshit, trying to destabilise and create war in the whole region while claiming to be the victims.
Israel doing Israel stuff right now
https://bsky.app/profile/youranoncentral.bsky.social/post/3lu3kskpaoc2b
Of course it is, there’s nothing left to bomb in Gaza so it has to look for a fight elsewhere, it reminds me of my time working in the pub as there was always one drunk at the end of the night spoiling for a fight with anyone, till he got sparked out
Turkiye has condemned Israel's actions in Syria, where they have a number of interests ^^ in the developing state https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-has-conveyed-its-views-syria-strikes-israel-via-intelligence-agency-2025-07-16/
I doubt that Turkiye sees the need for war, but it will cause Syria's Kurdish population to retain arms for the defence of their community, rather than integrating into a Syrian state. This is an issue for Turkiye which has clashed with PKK terrorists internally and has seen a steady influx of refugees that they'd hoped to reverse as Syria develops.
Turkiye's military is quite sophisticated with US fighter aircraft and was one of the forerunners of drone warfare before Ukraine. They also have a weapons industry, so Israel will do well to steer clear (you may recall Ukraine being supplied with weapons including Bayraktar drones and Roketsan laser-guided missiles).
The US, UN and international community needs to pull Israel back, but their track record on this in Gaza and elsewhere hasn't been great. An article for interest https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria-israelpalestine/how-israels-overreach-syria-may-backfire
Turkiye is a NATO member, but in the unlikely event of offensive actions by Turkiye it won't trigger a NATO response
DAMASCUS/BEIRUT, July 19 (Reuters) - Syria's government misread how Israel would respond to its troops deploying to the country's south this week, encouraged by U.S. messaging that Syria should be governed as a centralized state, eight sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
AND
U.S. special envoy for Syria Thomas "Barrack has called for Syria to be centrally administered as "one country" without autonomous zones. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-believed-it-had-green-light-us-israel-deploy-troops-sweida-2025-07-19/
Israel, however, wants a Federal government in Syria administering autonomous communities and it wants to retain the Russian influence at military bases to counter Turkiye's increasing authority in the country.
BEIRUT/WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Israel is lobbying the United States to keep Syria weak and decentralised, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey's growing influence in the country, four sources familiar with the efforts said. https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-lobbies-us-keep-russian-bases-weak-syria-sources-say-2025-02-28/
This maintains an inherent instability that suits Israel, but the US has made a public statement opposing autonomous communities ^^
One problem with Israel's approach is that Syria's army remains to an extent decentralised and consequently less well-trained leading to old scores being settled on the ground,
A regional intelligence source said Sharaa had not been in control of events on the ground because of the lack of a disciplined military and his reliance instead on a patchwork of militia groups, often with a background in Islamic militancy.
This gives Israel all the reason it needs to intervene, despite this being a moot point within Syrian Druze communities.
Another problem is that Israel's approach causes problems for Europe and NATO in that Syria was used as a base for Russian forces to threaten the NATO south and to influence the Mediterranean area, which it only re-established in 2013.
Russia still maintains a presence at the (K)Hmeimim air base, the Tartus naval base and at Qamishli air base, a Syrian base already bombed by Israel in the northeast.
Russia is negotiating hard to maintain its presence and can provide the grain and oil-products that Syria needs and doesn't have the infrastructure to produce. Development of that infrastructure is slow because of instability caused by continued conflict.
The Syrian government is well-aware that until a few months ago Russian forces were bombing their communities and might aid destabilisation if allowed to stay.
President Trump has lifted all US sanctions on Syria and on the day that Israel bombed Damascus a US contingent was pitching redevelopment projects to the Syrian government there https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/us-firms-develop-syria-energy-masterplan-after-trump-lifts-sanctions-2025-07-18/ (see also embedded links in the article on electicity and port regeneration)
Israel is on the wrong side of US, European and NATO interests while Syria is in the middle of interesting times.
Novel negotiation could produce some good results for the country and the middle-east
This is an open act of expansionism aimed at stealing Syria’s southern lands and natural resources.
Perhaps we should use the term 'Lebensraum' to describe what they are doing. Seems very appropriate 🤔
In fact the more parallels should be drawn and used in online media.
Seems to me that Israel only bombed Syria because they requested that they protect the Druze but any forces that went there basically joined in against the Druze, which is why Israel have issued a 'warning'.
There's footage of the Islamists, shaving the moustaches from Druze elders and celebrating that they are humiliating them by removing their moustaches, before murdering them. This is in spite of there being messaging telling them to avoid videoing anything on their phones.
Also video of the Druze in Israel trying to get across the border to Syria to go and help the Druze in Syria, but Israel trying to stop them and asking them to let the IDF do the work. Apparently Druze are also attempting to come from Lebanon.
Fatwahs have been issued to allow to be committed, like they were before October 7th:
https://www.youtube.com/live/HUfPylNxrJY?si=lh4pby_cBLQk-qwO
Interesting discussion unless you are a pathological Jew hater :
Also an interesting discussion, has a slightly more moderate view of al-Jolani which I thought might be the case but recent events challange that a bit :
Seems to me that Israel only bombed Syria because they requested that they protect the Druze but any forces that went there basically joined in against the Druze, which is why Israel have issued a 'warning'.
It seems to me that Israel has been attacking Syria using any excuse to keep Syria fragmented. The exception for me was the bombing of Syrian chemical weapons stocks on the 8th Dec, which was a public service destruction IMHO and before the establishment of the caretaker Syrian government established under Mohammed al-Bashir on the 10th.
From 10th Dec, Israel's attacks have been against a sovreign government with the apparent goal to increase Israel's land, which PM Netanyahu made clear in February when he said that Israel would "indefinitely" occupy Syrian land seized since December, e.g. the UN buffer zone on the Golan Heights.
The claim by Israel to be protecting the Druze people by attacking Syrian government forces is a nonsense; Druze fighters were in conflict with Bedouin fighters and Bedouin civilians have been evacuated from the majority Druze city of Suweida https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/bedouin-civilians-leave-syrias-sweida-tense-truce-holds-2025-07-21/
It would also be interesting to understand why Israel didn't feel it necessary to intervene in one of the single-biggest massacres of Druze people by IS fighters during the Syrian civil war in 2018,
I'm not naive enough to believe that any side in this is truly "right" and Syrian forces were also drawn in to the conflict, but it's plain that Israel is more wrong. President Trump, who is accommodating toward Israel, has said as much by telling the world that the US doesn't approve of Israel's strikes and doesn't share Israel's vision of a federalised Syria.
President Trump has started the process of the removal of US sanctions from Syria, no doubt guaranteed by other middle-eastern states during his recent tour (the announcement on May 13th was day two of the tour), again against Israel's suggested phased removal.
It's also obvious that Israel's neighbours, including Syria, have been intercepting Iranian and Russian weapons intended for Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon. Syria made publicised seizures thoughout this year and no threats toward Israel have been made by the March interim government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Israel's actions are out of step on this and could lead to more worrying long-term scenarios for them^^
The problem with Israel continuously fostering chaos is that if the fragile peace fails more widely between different groups it could lead either to the downfall of the Syrian government and a power vacuum, or a neighbouring country stepping in with support. Neither of these are necessarily better options for Israel; a stable Syria buffering against Iran and bordering a UN DMZ with Israel has to be better, doesn't it?
PS I don't tend to watch YT videos. A summary would be handy to save time, apologies. I'm intrigued as to why you feel that it's appropriate to use the nom-de-guerre of President Ahmed al-Sharaa,
a slightly more moderate view of al-Jolani
The US is urging President Ahmed al-Sharaa to speed up the integration of minority groups into the government in a bid to even up the balance of power, e.g. there is one female amongst the 23-strong cabinet, who also happens to be Christian.
US Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that Syria risks losing the momentum for change.
BEIRUT, July 22 (Reuters) - A U.S. envoy has urged Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to recalibrate his policies and embrace a more inclusive approach after a new round of sectarian bloodshed last week, or risk losing international support and fragmenting the country.
US envoy Barrack urged Syria's Sharaa to 'adapt quickly'
Syria could be 'worse' than Libya if Sharaa fails
Syrian troops did not commit abuses against Druze, he says
US urging dialogue to resolve Israeli concerns
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-envoy-urges-syrias-sharaa-revise-policy-or-risk-fragmentation-2025-07-22/
Reportedly, a meeting is scheduled for Thursday between Israel and Syria, brokered by the US to reduce outside influence on fragmentation of Syria from Israel
Turkiye has upped the ante, which should add a little pressure for a successful outcome to Thursday's talks
ANKARA, July 22 (Reuters) - Turkey will directly intervene to stop any attempt to fragment Syria and will prevent any attempts by militants to obtain autonomy after clashes in southern Syria, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Tuesday.
Fidan said Israel wanted a divided Syria to make the country unstable, weaker and a liability to the region, and added that Kurdish YPG militants were looking to take advantage of the chaos. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-it-will-intervene-against-any-attempt-divide-syria-2025-07-22/
Kurdish militants have been subject to action by Turkiye both within Turkiye and Syria in the past. A united Syria would tick many boxes for most of the middle-east, including Turkiye
The other element is internal fragmentation. Faster government rebalancing of power within the cabinet will hopefully make Syria more resilient and result in a more widely accepted permanent constitution
But the Kurdish-led administration in north-eastern Syria criticised the constitutional declaration, saying it "contradicts the reality of Syria and its diversity". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70ely2p6e4o
The US is urging President Ahmed al-Sharaa to speed up the integration of minority groups into the government in a bid to even up the balance of power, e.g. there is one female amongst the 23-strong cabinet, who also happens to be Christian.
US Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that Syria risks losing the momentum for change.
It seems that Syria has listened, at least in part,
July 27 (Reuters) - Syria is expected to hold its first parliamentary election under the new administration in September, the head of the electoral commission told state news agency SANA on Sunday.
The election will increase the number of seats from 150 to 210. A third of the seats will be appointed by the president.
Officials said areas outside government control, including Kurdish-held regions in northern Syria and the Druze-majority province of Sweida, would continue to have seats allocated based on population.
It's widely reported in the middle-east that Jordan is continuing to resist Israel's diplomatic efforts to re-open the border between the Suweida province of Syria and Jordan, which was closed in December, as "a result of the surrounding security conditions in Syria's south". The situation is unlikely to change because Jordan's trade is massively important with the middle-eastern nations, much more so than the small amount of trade with Israel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0x1n996z4o
The Nov/Dec uprising was a bonus for Jordan because al-Assad's trade in drugs and weapons to the middle east was becoming more intense until he unexpectedly left for Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-61040359
The new government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa has already made an agreement with Jordan, but hasn't been able to get into Suweida to deal with pro-Assad militias there^^
The leaders agreed that coordination was crucial for border security and for curbing arms and drug smuggling, a phenomenon that Jordan struggled to contain along its border during the rule of ousted president Bashar al-Assad, the palace added. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-king-tells-syrian-interim-president-he-condemns-israeli-attacks-2025-02-26/
Suweida is currently maintaining its independence from the rest of Syria with Israel's help ^^ and Druze under pro-Assad Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, Israel's Druze leader of choice, has trades to make.
It's interesting that Israel hasn't chosen to open its own border with Suweida to allow Druze peoples to consort freely, proof, maybe, that the enemy of my enemy isn't my friend?
(Probably) Druze militia have broken the ceasefire in Suweida (you'll see it spelt in different ways, including Suweyda)
Aug 3 (Reuters) - Armed groups attacked personnel from Syria's internal security forces in Sweida, killing one member and wounding others, and fired shells at several villages in the violence-hit southern province, state-run Ekhbariya TV reported on Sunday.
The report cited a security source as saying the armed groups had violated the ceasefire agreed in the predominantly Druze region, where factional bloodshed killed hundreds of people last month.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-groups-attack-security-force-personnel-syrias-sweida-killing-one-state-tv-2025-08-03/
Various reports say that four raids were carried out by Israeli forces in the Hader area, a majority-Druze pro-Assad area, within Israel's occupied region of southern Syria.
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
This area is north of Suweida and part of the former UN DMZ now occupied by Israel. The Reuter's article is quite brief
Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Israeli military said on Sunday that it conducted a raid on targets in southern Syria the previous day.
It said it seized weapons and questioned several suspects it said were involved in weapons trafficking in the area.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-it-conducted-raid-targets-southern-syria-2025-08-03/
Syria signed agreements last week for $14bn of foreign investment in a dozen projects. Qatar, as one example, is to build a new airport ($4bn) which will open Syria up to further investment when completed.
There's a US-Syria meeting tomorrow hosted by Jordan to discuss the further rebuilding of Syria
I would think that this is all off the back of memoranda of understanding signed in May
Just reining Israel in will allow more airlines to schedule flights because many regard flying into an occasional warzone as dodgy
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
I think it is closer to the truth that israel has earmarked Syria as being part of the land(Canaan) they claim their god gifted them after fleeing Egypt.
The 'gift' also includes parts of Jordan and Lebanon, so we can expect them to at some point try to take that land too.
The area reportedly asked for Israel's protection rather than that of the new Syrian government. Maybe not everyone agreed, which is borne out by polls amongst Syria's Druze communities
I think it is closer to the truth that israel has earmarked Syria as being part of the land(Canaan) they claim their god gifted them after fleeing Egypt.
The 'gift' also includes parts of Jordan and Lebanon, so we can expect them to at some point try to take that land too.
It's probably a manufactured request by a few Druze groups who will benefit from keeping Syrian forces out.
The difficulty is that the UN are rendered effectively pointless by a US veto, so current talks and the over-stretched IDF will hopefully cause pause for thought on further incursions
In March a deal was reached between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander, Mazioum Abdi, for the SDF to merge with the new Syrian government to form one state of Syria.
Turkiye was hopeful that this would be a major move toward dismantling Kurdish terrorism on both sides of the border, having already reached agreement with the PKK in Turkiye.
On Wednesday agreement was reached between Turkiye and Syria that will address shortcomings in military organisation, structure, discipline and training. In tandem with the "one Syrian state", this should reduce unnecessary killing by Syrian forces,
Turkey and Syria sign memorandum for military cooperation
Ankara aims to support Syria's territorial integrity
Turkey-Syria accord provides for training of troops, arms procurement
Turkey believes Syrian army in need of restructuring, official saysThe article goes on to say,
Turkey has been growing impatient with what it calls the lack of implementation of a March deal between Damascus and the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate the SDF into the Syrian state apparatus.
Ankara has warned of military action against the SDF, which it considers a terrorist organisation and has targeted in past cross-border operations. It expects the Syrian government to address its security concerns but says it reserves the right to mount an offensive if needed. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-help-syria-with-weapon-systems-equipment-under-new-accord-source-says-2025-08-14/
The problem with the March deal is that the SDF isn't the whole story. The SDF is a coalition of militias fighting on behalf of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).
Those groups question whether the SDF miltary commander has the authority to make agreements for the parties to the coalition forming the SDF and its administration, DAANES.
The YPG militia, a Kurdish People's Protection Unit in NE Syria, doesn't think so and isn't being influenced by the break up of the PKK in Turkiye.
A central government of federal states in Syria, Israel's preference, might be hard to overcome. Turkiye has been sanctioned by the US under Trump v1.0 for attacks within Syria before, so we'll see what happens with their latest warning.
The transitional government has a lot of diplomatic ground to cover before it makes agreements to avoid fallings out in the future
Syria's government are considering a new issue of banknotes to reduce the numbers needed with the existing SYP pound
1 new SYP will be equivalent to 100 old SYP (Reuters)
In July I included a report on Syria's Parliamentary elections^^ scheduled for September
Officials said areas outside government control, including Kurdish-held regions in northern Syria and the Druze-majority province of Sweida, would continue to have seats allocated based on population.
The election will happen, however, it's been decided that due to the ongoing security situation in those regions that elections won't take place there and that the allotted seats will remain open and unfilled. The election is open to external monitoring
The first oil has been officially exported from Syria in 14 years.
The ship sailed from the Port of Tartus, which is now managed by DP World (an Emirati company) after the Syrian Government cancelled the management agreement with Russia in May. Russia still has a naval presence within the port.
Summary:
•Some 600,000 barrels of oil sold to trading firm B Serve Energy, energy ministry official says
•US lifted sanctions after December fall of Assad and end of Syria's civil war
•Firms developing master plan to help explore and extract Syrian oil and gas
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-exports-first-crude-oil-shipment-14-years-official-says-2025-09-01/
The International Atomic Energy Agency has started to test an area of eastern Syria that was believed by the IAEA to be an incomplete secret nuclear reactor (widely reported).
Deir al-Zor was struck by Israel in 2007 and was believed to be a partnership with N. Korea. The reactor wasn't configured to generate electricity (background for those interested)
The US has removed several diplomats from their posts in Istanbul who were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government. The integration would benefit Turkiye, but not Israel, but is still official US policy.
The diplomats were working under Tom Barrack, the U.S. special envoy for Syria and friend of President Donald Trump.
ISTANBUL, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Some of the most senior U.S. diplomats focused on Syria have been abruptly let go from their posts in recent days, according to five people familiar with the matter, a shake-up that comes as Washington seeks to integrate its Syrian Kurdish allies with the central administration in Damascus.
One Western diplomat said the ousting of the U.S. diplomats was in part driven by "a divergence" in views between staffers and Barrack on the issue of the SDF and Sharaa, without elaborating.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-diplomats-syria-abruptly-let-go-amid-pro-damascus-policy-push-sources-say-2025-09-18/
The difficulties of SDF integration have been mentioned ^^ when it became apparent that the spokesman for the SDF had over-stepped his authority and wasn't speaking for all of the different factions
Part of the US National Defense Authorization Act agreed in the US Senate yesterday included a formal repeal of sanctions on Syria. This backs up President Trump's surprise announcement in May
In a surprising move with geopolitical implications, the Senate also adopted a measure to repeal the Caesar Act, a significant piece of legislation that imposed sanctions on the Assad regime in Syria.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61805
Syrian state news agency SANA has reported that President al-Sharaa will meet President Putin in Moscow today. There was a wider conference planned, which was cancelled, but their meeting will go ahead.
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
Israel's strikes on Syria and Israel's demand for an "humanitarian corridor" in south-west Syria (which may be diplo-speak for a continued Israeli presence in the UN DMZ in the Syrian Golan Heights) would be counter-acted by a greater Russian diplomatic presence and, in time, a greater Russian military presence.
This might be seen as an overall benefit in Syria to achieving a single Syrian state.
One assumption is that the Kurdish north-east will fall into line with the greater Syrian state and, if this looks towards Russia, would put Turkiye's mistrust of the Kurdish people in opposition to Russia.
This opposition would probably satisfy the west in terms of Turkiye's solidarity with NATO, but would it be better for Syria?
The other side to that coin is that the US is currently in the process of consolidating eight bases to one and withdrawing US troops supporting the Kurdish NE, as happened under President Trump v1.0 in 2018-19.
Russia has had its own problems with ISIS-K and ISIS fighters are currently held as prisoners by the US-backed SDF. If the Kurdish NE and its SDF military arm remain independent of Syria, which suits Israel, and the US continues to withdraw, might the SDF look toward Russia for support in any event?
The other major factor in all of this are the other states in the middle-east that are fed up with constant instability holding the whole region back on the international stage, hence links being formed with Israel under the 2020 Abraham Accords (until a couple of years ago when war stopped that) and more recently with the US. The greater middle-east isn't a fan of over-reach by either Israel or Iran, but at least Israel could be brought into the fold.
The ceasefire in Gaza is clearly a good thing and a similar withdrawal by Israel from Syrian territory would be a stabilising factor for the whole region. The diplomatic machinations and possibilities are hugely complicated, I don't pretend to understand them and I'm sure that you can think of plenty of alternative scenarios
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
Russia no longer has strong influence or tie in the middle east (except Iran).
The current Syria govt intention to arrest former President al-Assad is merely a way to distract Russia, by following the instruction of their masters.
The entire middle east is practically under the "control" of Israel/USA, with every moves closely monitor.
Syrian state news agency SANA has reported that President al-Sharaa will meet President Putin in Moscow today. There was a wider conference planned, which was cancelled, but their meeting will go ahead.
Syria is keen to arrest former President al-Assad, currently exiled in Russia, and this announcement keeps Syria's links with Russia open while potentially increasing Russia's footprint in the country, bolstering Iran's position and continuing Russia's presence in the Med.
This is a total dead duck. Having mostly got rid of them peacefully, Al Sharaa isn't going to bother picking fights with Russia. And Russia isn't going to hand Assad over, any more than they're going to hand over Yanukovych (Ukraine) or Akayev (Kyrgyzstan) or even Milosevic's son (Serbia).
Russia was pretty cocky in Syria when it came to poncing around the pacified areas and launching the occasional air strike, but servicemen and mercenaries were wiped out in confrontations with the US and Kurds and Islamic State. Their total failure to keep Assad in power or Iran protected, their retreat back to bases and airports, and the ongoing failure to complete a 3 day war in Ukraine has been a cataclysmic disaster.
Also, the Wagner insurrection shattered the model for state-allied mercenaries to pursue mineral-driven adventures in Africa, and without Syria they can't sustain supply lines to those African theatres.
And closer to home, Russia was ruthlessly castrated by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the failure to "save" Armenia shows how week collective self defence with Russia is. Central Asia has also learned to treat Russia with froideur without actively picking fights.
Pjotr Sauer summarises well in the Grauniad today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/putins-cancelled-russia-arab-summit-signals-waning-influence-in-middle-east
The entire middle east is practically under the "control" of Israel/USA
Cobblers. Turkey, the UAE and Saudi are all independent and important political and militarybplayers. Turkey occupies far more of Syria than Israel does, and just look what Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have wrought in Sudan and Libya. Iran is weakened but not irrelevant either, esp in Iraq and Lebanon. And Israel and the US are not, and never have been, a single team.
And Israel and the US are not, and never have been, a single team.
They are tack team. Obvious is obvious and so obvious.
Israel just bombed Qatar, Trump's new best friend. It has consistently declined to do what Obama, and Biden, and Trump wanted Israel to do in Gaza and Syria. Israel and the US are not a single team. Treating one as a mere servant of the other is simplistic, ahistorical and ignores the agency of each.
This is a total dead duck.
But President al-Sharaa still went.
I think that we forget how tenuous things are in Syria right now, they can't even rebuild the country's electricity grid without the various regional and criminal factions removing the pylons to sell for scrap before any cables have been strung.
Those factions are still separate within what is currently a federal state with a central government. That government isn't representative of the country because it's been deemed too dangerous to hold a national ballot so a proportion of the parliament is represented by empty seats.
While I agree that Russia is losing "weight" all over their previous stomping grounds, Russia has certain benefits that Syria doesn't have diplomatically, including permanent membership of the UN Security Council and a power of veto there.
The likely withdrawal of US forces will cause further problems in the Kurdish NE, where there is already an increase in tension. ISIS fighters held by the US-backed SDF escaped as factions rushed to fill the potential vacuum when the drawdown was first announced in 2019.
Oct 16 (Reuters) - Four oil facility guards were killed in an attack on a bus on a highway east of Syria's Deir al-Zor, state news agency reported on Thursday.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.The latest attack occurred near SDF-controlled areas east of the Euphrates, where skirmishes and tensions between government forces and the SDF have risen in recent days.
The region lies along the border with Iraq and is divided by the Euphrates River between areas controlled by the state and the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led SDF, which controls Syria’s oilfields east of the river.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/casualties-explosion-bus-carrying-oil-facility-guards-syrias-deir-el-zor-state-2025-10-16/
It may be advantageous to Syria for Russia to fill that vacuum rather than ISIS, especially when you consider US diplomatic staff being withdrawn from Istanbul as happened last month ^^ Those diplomats were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government.
Russia has provided a lot of Syria's infrastructure and could be a quicker route to restoring the electricity grid and oil industry. They also supplied most of the weapons used by Syria's military today. I'm the first to agree that none of those things are likely to be forthcoming any time soon; Russia has its own needs for all of the above because of its invasion of Ukraine, but it isn't harming Syria to keep relations warm and open.
I think that a withdrawal by Israel from Syrian territory will be a good start to reinstate UN observers. There are also the means to monitor Syrian troop movements from Israel's soil if that's a genuine concern.
Maintenance of US diplomatic efforts and it's military force are also essential ATM, but if Israeli and US involvement continues on its current trajectory, what choice does Syria have if it's to become an integrated state?
It may be advantageous to Syria for Russia to fill that vacuum rather than ISIS, especially when you consider US diplomatic staff being withdrawn from Istanbul as happened last month ^^ Those diplomats were working to integrate the US-backed SDF with the Syrian government.
It will be foolish for Russia to get involve now.
Let Syria's new backers help them deals with the rebuilding and stabilisation etc.
No point for Russia to waste resources and energy.
It will be foolish for Russia to get involve now.
Let Syria's new backers help them deals with the rebuilding and stabilisation etc.
No point for Russia to waste resources and energy.
And yet they agreed to talks, President to President.
Qatar is struggling to get its $7bn energy project running because armed factions are looting infrastructure faster than the Syrian government can fix it.
Russia is another possible route to finance that infrastructure, whether they get involved in the future is another matter, but there's an opportunity there.
Russia also has an interest in keeping IS fighters imprisoned having suffered in the IS-K attack on Crocus City Hall last year, amongst others, and they'd like to continue use of Syrian naval and air facilities, etc. etc.
Russia is preparing to send a large tanker full of light oil to Syria. It's probably for Syrian use, rather than Africa, because Aframax (Average Freight Rate Assessment Max) vessels are a standard size that can get into most ports and could just sail direct
Russia is set to deliver around 750,000 barrels, or 100,000 metric tons, of a mix of Arctic heavy ARCO oil and gas condensate, a type of light oil, to Syria's Banias port, traders said and LSEG data showed.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-deliver-oil-condensate-cargo-syria-according-lseg-traders-2025-10-22/
In news that's under-reported in the UK (I wonder why),
The government’s decision to remove Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of proscribed terrorist organisations will mean closer engagement with the new Syrian government and support UK foreign and domestic priorities, from counter-terrorism to migration and chemical weapons destruction. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-removes-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-from-terrorist-organisation-list
A quick google suggests that it's made a few local papers including the Evening Standard, lincsonline and the Shropshire Star
Turkiye wants more advanced fighter aircraft to counterbalance Israel and Greece in its regional flashpoints.
Israel would rather they weren't supplied so that Israel remains free to strike its neighbours.
I suspect that Turkiye's Russian S400 AD systems will have to be got rid of first so that AD data for western aircraft can't be incorporated in S400 upgrades
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Turkey's bases, rebel allies and support for the army in Syria posed a threat to Israel.
Turkey aims to buy Eurofighter Typhoon, F-16 and F-35 jets
Seeks used Typhoons from Gulf, waiver from US, sources say
US barred Turkey from F-35s after it bought Russian defences
Israeli attacks across region jolted Ankara's efforts to boost air force, air defence
Turkey wants to avoid falling behind Israel, Greece in air power
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkey-pressing-western-fighter-jets-claw-back-regional-edge-2025-10-22/