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On this subject – was life better for ordinary Afghans when the Russians were in charge than they are today?
Yes, life was better for women when Russians were "in charged", but now women are just for child bearing purposes. However, life is generally "peaceful" with only men on the streets. Taliban has taken a "softer" stance with other nations that want to trade with them and a formula they perceive to be working. People are still surviving as far as I know from their street food scenes.
Damascus is falling, and the dominos are beginning to tumble for Russia.Putin remains a master strategist
Russian outposts fall due to close proximity with Israel and a NATO member (Turkey), but that is just how things are in middle east since Arab Spring. i.e. someone is stirring the pot.
Introducing western "democracy" to that region in the name of peace etc (true aim is to sow chaos to make it easier to manage) is actually moving a step closer to creating the khilafah for the entire region. The West think they can control the fragmented groups and the impression is that they can, but this is merely a temporary state of truce as the fighters are all merely complying while recuperating from decades of wars. The vacuum will be slowly filled with religious based movement again, and one that is very conservative. Those middle eastern nations with Western ties will slowly disappear in future. IMO, Lebanon and Jordan are on the shaky grounds in the long run, and will be the next targets if the religious based groups can stabilise (agree amongst) themselves. Ultimately, No matter how friendly they are with the West, they ALL want Israel gone. I suspect within this 50 years or perhaps earlier, Israel will be part of the Khaliafah. Although Turkey always want to be seen as the leader of the Khilafah, they are not and will be the last to fall.
Iran allegedly withdrawing at least some of its military from Syria
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html
Iran allegedly withdrawing at least some of its military from Syria
I suspect they don't want to have more people dying. Not a good idea too to fight amongst the people with similar belief.
Although Shite and Sunni may look different or fight amongst themselves, they will eventually reconcile their differences to deal with their one main enemy in the region. i.e. to kick their main enemy out for 3rd and the last time forever.
Part of the reason that the locals have risen up so rapidly against the regime (well that and all the corruption, trashed economy and Syrian military running a huge amphetamine dealing business!) is that they resent the flood of shiites from Hezbollah and Iran who have moved to Damascus and southern Syria in their 1000s over the last few years.
I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.
without it Russia suffers a big humiliation.
on the one hand Russia is getting a lot of money from their Africa operations, on the other, thet are stretched very thin in Ukraine and who knows what else will pop up in Georgia etc
HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases
HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases
What will Russia pay then with? Not dollars or euros or anything useful.
grain
Part of the reason that the locals have risen up so rapidly against the regime (well that and all the corruption, trashed economy and Syrian military running a huge amphetamine dealing business!) is that they resent the flood of shiites from Hezbollah and Iran who have moved to Damascus and southern Syria in their 1000s over the last few years.
Because their leaders (most in that region) were in no man's land trying to mix western democracy with religious based population. Never going to work. The population generally see their leaders as corrupted "capitalists". For many generations most of the leaders in that region deluded themselves as the rightful leaders, but their religious foundation has always been weak. The people just went with the flow but after many generations, things got worst for them and the only fall back they have is to embrace their belief again; and leaders that are not providing the stability are rejected.
I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.
They don't have to. All they need to do is let them loose by supplying them with basic weapons and they will do the job for themselves or Russia etc. Remember Russia has already resume diplomatic ties with Taliban. Most of the fighters have already seen the success of the Taliban and will follow their approach.
without it Russia suffers a big humiliation.
No, just different tactics. The only humiliation is NATO winning in Ukraine but that will never happen.
on the one hand Russia is getting a lot of money from their Africa operations, on the other, thet are stretched very thin in Ukraine and who knows what else will pop up in Georgia etc
Not sure how important the Africa operations is and will be better to let that be a problem for someone else.
HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases
Or simply cooperate in exchange for weapons so they can march south.
Yes, life was better for women when Russians were “in charged”
The Russians were brutal, especially in the rural areas with a campaign of 'depopulation' to remove the support to the insurgency.
One thing we noticed when we first deployed in 06/07 was how when flying over compounds the women would grab the kids and run. We spoke to our partner force liaison and he told us it was a learned behaviour from when the Russians invaded and would fire into compounds targeting anyone they saw.
So no, I'd argue they didn't have it better under the Russians.
Russian convoy being escorted to Turkey by Kurds driving American vehicles. Utter humiliation for Russia.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1865428057453908276
Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/08/syria-damascus-assad-regime-collapse
A Syrian Ilyushin-76 plane suspected of carrying Assad departed Damascus airport shortly before the rebels entered, according to FlightRadar.
The plane made its way northwest and then turned near the city of Homs and rapidly decreased its altitude before disappearing.
I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.
Russia will be negotiating with a Government on the receiving end of Russian air strikes and Assad's various Russian supported misery. And that's before you remember the decades of oppression from the Assad regime Russia aided with.
Seems like a hard ask.
The main thing I'd be looking for in some fantasy scenario where I was the new Syrian government would be kicking out as many of the foreign powers using Syria as a geopolitical pawn as possible. Including the US and Iran, hard to see Turkey's influence being easy to shift.
This article describes the US presence in Syria, although I dont really know how reliable it is.
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Strong rumours that Russian naval forces have been given the order to abandon Tartus (for realsies this time)
Latakia is important to Russia's defence of the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. It's a port situated north on the M1 major road to Khmeimim and then Tartus, while Tartus itself is also on the M1 from Homs
It's interesting that Russia's ships began to sail from Tartus on the 2nd Dec, which was confirmed on satellite as empty on the 3rd, to take part in a "naval exercise" in the Med, as you do when a rebellion started a few days before.
Then you sail some ships back, as confirmed by Foreign Minister Lavrov from the Doha Forum yesterday.
Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?
Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?
I suspect covering a bit of everything, Tartus has successfully repelled several drone swarm attacks in recent years. negotiations with HTS or whoever is in charge will be frantic for Russia.
if Assad's plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn't be surprised, which country would want him?
Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.
I'm going to go a bit conspiracy theory here, but was al-Assad in Syria during December?
He was in Moscow meeting President Putin during November according to Russia Telegram chat
Peskov said he had "nothing to say" on the matter. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-it-wants-syria-swiftly-restore-order-after-rebel-attack-2024-11-29/
and reportedly flew back to Syria on Saturday 30th, the same day that rebels took Aleppo
He reportedly met Iranian officials in Damascus on 1st Dec
On 6th Dec Syrian TV reported that he'd gone to Iran, but later retracted the report...
It's all reports without appearances in Syria.
Hmmmm
if Assad’s plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn’t be surprised, which country would want him?
When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.
Add in a entourage used to living high and splashing the cash and sadly there are plenty of places that will have him.
When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.
This one has been fleecing the country for decades so the funds are going to be in the tens of billions, maybe considerably more.
Russia is on the look out for funds, and as a previous ally, its possible he's fled there.
I'm not sure a crash is why the aircraft went of radar, more likely it just switched its transponder off
Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them
Ukraine reports that the remaining Russian fleet has left Tartus
On 8 December 2024, the Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Inzhener Trubin cargo ship of the Russian Northern Fleet departed from Tartus and headed to the Mediterranean Sea.
In addition, the Russians are transferring remnants of their weapons and military equipment from Syria's Khmeimim airfield."
I hope for the sake of Syrian people there won't be an extension of the civil war that sees internecine fighting between the various rebel/religious/ethnic groups. I hope that if they do take power HtS don't turn out to be Isis/Daesh. I will take 50p of anyone's money to bet that what Syria won't be is a secular parliamentary democracy any time soon.
And I take HTS’s claims that they have left their ISIS views behind as seriously as I took Taliban2’s
I'm inclined to be sceptical too. Also true that people on the ground seem to willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now at least.
My thoughts entirely Ernesto. I got a feeling of Deja vu watching them interviewed and give assurances that other religions would be treated equally and women wouldn’t be reduced to slaves and baby-carriers
Yeah, right
I hope that if they do take power HtS don’t turn out to be Isis/Daesh
You can stick lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. As Ernesto pointed out, this is exactly what the Taliban did and look how that’s worked out. These people are exactly the same ultra-hardline, fundamentalist loons, they’re just (temporarily) indulging in a bit of PR
I share the concerns but HTS in recent years have actually fought and arrested ISIS members, there are reasons to be hopeful apart from blind naivety.
Europe, Turkey and the USA all have a strong interest in a stable Syria so there is common interest and potential cooperation there, even if they're unlikely to turn into Belgium overnight.
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad's fall there's already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.
Even if 'the West' is understandably wary, the Syrians themselves seem fairly hopefull; the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.
Time will tell.
I wonder how much ‘room and board’ he’ll be paying to Putin for that?
Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them
Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.
That was the only longer term positive I took from the news.
or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
There probably aren't any left that Assad's regime or Russia haven't already destroyed. From Wiki:
After Russia began military operations in Syria, aerial bombardment intensified.[8] In 2015, there were more than 300 attacks on medical facilities by Syrian and Russian forces.[9] From May to December 2016, medical facilities were attacked about 200 times by Russian and Syrian forces.[10]
It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.
That's happened quite a few times.
There probably aren’t any left that Assad’s regime or Russia haven’t already destroyed.
I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.
To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home
The same happened in plenty of places during the Arab Spring though. Plenty of disparate groups put their differences aside and united to throw out oppressive established regimes. Lots of people then found themselves then being ruled by hardline fundamentalists like ISIS which they would never have supported
I suspect we’ll now see the traditional infighting with those who are prepared to be the most brutal coming out on top.
One positive thing to come out of this though, whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them. As it is for Putin and Russias as well
It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.
Tibetans would disagree.
Didn’t Assad just humiliate Pootin?
I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.
Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn't want to remain in power.
Iran then decided to engage in diplomatic talks with the rebels to secure the safe exit of their troops out of Syria. It does sound feasible to me that Assad decided to throw in the towel and spend his final days quietly in Russia.
The same source claims that it was Russia and the UAE who convinced Assad to give up power. Although I am not sure what benefit Assad giving up power brings to Russia. Other than perhaps allowing them to concentrate more on Ukraine? Although with Trump returning to the Whitehouse next month will that even be necessary?
It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict
the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.
If they were "celebrating" I suspect they were doing so because they feared the consequences of not celebrating. They certainly have much to fear of the jihadists who have seized power. I am not quite so sure what they had to fear from Assad.
I personally have only spoken at length to one Syrian in recent years, she is a Christian who lives in Aleppo and comes regularly to London to stay with her son who lives here. She is/was a huge supporter Assad believing that he guaranteed the security of Christians in Syria. She claimed that the Christian area of Aleppo was not targeted by government forces as the rebels were not active there (Aleppo had previously been held by rebels) and that the only real danger to life came from rebel missiles.
There are numerous accounts of Syrian Christians fearing the rebel advances, here's just one but if you Google it you will find many more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/06/aleppo-christians-syria-rebel-offensive-assad/
It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict
Most of that conflict is confined to the pavement outside the local 'Spoons.
Thinking about it, I’m quite glad that Islamic fundamentalists don’t drink. Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each? That’d make for one challenging 3am kebab house visit
some horrufic stuff coming out about Syrias prisons
https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3lcsyfps2a22n
meanwhile
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lct53vh3fc2h
Imagine a bunch of angry jihadists after 8 pints of Stella each?
Bloke in my cycling group loves a Stella or two, thank goodness he hasn't got a wife.
HTS have got some form.
We have been receiving disturbing reports of continued detention of civilians, including humanitarian workers, in Idlib, northwestern Syria, in areas under the control of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other armed groups. We have also been receiving deeply troubling reports of executions following the detentions and so-called trials by the de facto authorities.
Just this week, on Wednesday, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham confirmed that it was holding a 28-year-old woman, Noor al-Shallo, a humanitarian and media worker, allegedly on "moral" and "criminal" charges. Her family has not had any contact with her since she was detained by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham members in September at the HTS-linked Sarmada "court" in Idlib while she was following up on issues relating to the custody of her three children. We have seen a number of reports suggesting that she may be at risk of execution.
whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them.
al Assad running away means that Iran has so far;
Lost access to the Med
reportedly $30B down the drain
Land bridge to Lebanon is gone
Hezbollah supply lines cut
Their regional plan has literally gone up in smoke...I doubt they'll take it on the chin.
Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?
It's widely reported, e.g. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-part-damascus-two-security-sources-say-2024-12-08/
No mention of schools or hospitals, but then it wasn't the Syrian air force which does have form
The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.
Over the past year, attacks on buildings in northwestern Syria, which are supposed to be off limits during wartime under international law, grew so frequent that the head of the United Nations launched an inquiry to document the violations. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html
I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.
We'll probably never know...
Secretary General António Guterres's establishment of the investigation is seen by many diplomats as a success at a United Nations largely stymied by division in the powerful Security Council. Russia, a Syrian government ally and a major perpetrator of these attacks, has cast 14 vetoes in the Security Council since the start of the war in Syria, blocking accountability efforts and hindering humanitarian aid deliveries into Syria. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/31/world/middleeast/syria-united-nations-investigation.html
The bombs smashed into a child care center, a refugee camp and a school. They destroyed makeshift clinics and hospitals, disabling essential services for tens of thousands of people.
So we’re agreed that bombing schools and hospitals is A Bad Thing, right ?
I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.
Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn’t want to remain in power.
I think that you're right to be sceptical. It sounds like someone exaggerating the strength of their army to put rebels at home off and to maintain a position in the wider region
https://bsky.app/profile/aljazeera.com/post/3lcubk5tvac2b
Hopefully they understand better than me, like a few on here, I'm lacking optimism.
Israel has already both invaded and bombed Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime.
Yeah but Assad - I excuse me, AL-Assad - has already bombed the hospitals so we’ll be spared that. I suppose they can always move on to the mosques and other terrorist infrastructure.
So we’re agreed that bombing schools and hospitals is A Bad Thing, right ?
Can you point me to a quote where someone suggested it was a good thing?
I see our government is reviewing HTS' terrorist designation. Our enemy's enemy is our friend doesn't often work out well
I see our government is reviewing HTS’ terrorist designation. Our enemy’s enemy is our friend doesn’t often work out well
History tells us this. I'd substitute 'friend' for 'casual acquaintance' to be accurate. 😉
One of the challenges with partnering with indigenous militias/armed groups/etc is they change hands in terms of leadership frequently so they can go from being batshit crazy zealots to moderate & disciplined and then back to fire & brimstone in short order.
I've been out of the loop since 2020 but I very much doubt anything has changed in that regard, I do find it curious we're reviewing our current arrangement but the USA are still firmly anti regard HTS. That would make the five-eyes arena a little more challenging to work in.
Of course, but al-Assad is demonstrably worse by many orders of magnitude
Given the track record of hardline islamists when they get in power, I’d be reserving judgment on that one for a wee while yet
I very much doubt that al-Jawlani's HTS (still sounds like a delivery company) will still be in charge in a year's time as these kind of revolutions devour their children.
They could be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire, but if you're sizzling away in a pan, jumping out is a reasonable first step.
Generally if a regime is being supported or propped up by Putin, or if it harms Putin's interests for it to fall, that's a good thing. It's like looking at whatever Farage's position is on an issue and assuming the reverse is the correct one.
One of our friends is Syrian, now living over here. It sounded bloody awful over there - she worked at a university in Lebanon and was a divorced Muslim woman (which obviously made things much harder), and her ex-husband had her kid. Driving back to Damascus to see her child she'd be stopped at three or four checkpoints along the way and you'd never know if they were government forces or rebels or IS, and they'd ask questions which you'd have to answer the right way or risk being shot.
She's anti-Assad, but also of the same ethnic group as him which means both the rebels and Assad saw her family as an enemy.
She's not sure what to think. The downfall of Assad is a massive relief, but HTS aren't really who she'd have chosen. She said this to me-
I have very mixed feelings. I can't bring myself to be optimistic or pessimistic. Damascus is the oldest place in history - home of the first alphabet, the first written piece of music. It has long been a vibrant, multi-faith and multicultural dynamic society. But for 54 years it's been ruled by the Ba'ath Party, which has systematically destroyed political life. This is the end of their dictatorship but I'm sure the American-Israeli agendas and their allies Turkey and Qatar will capitalise on this situation.
The Islamist troops interned the coastal cities today. New flags are everywhere. The old regime flags and images have been destroyed. They took photos and videos to show that they're coming with peace, but 80% of the shops were looted and the central bank in Damascus was looted last night. There's total economic crisis.
So, even the Syrians don't know what to think. But, immediately, they think the war is over and that's why so many are returning to their homes. If they have one left - I know my pal doesn't, it was bombed years ago by Assad's forces.
God only knows what is going to fill that vacuum.
Can't see it being much better, all those different factions will soon start fighting each other.
God only knows what is going to fill that vacuum.
I'm guessing Turkey will try to.
Trump has no interest in Syria, so there’s that - but also he lies constantly so there’s that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
ISW reporting on Israeli troops in Syria
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lctndbvwud2h
Given the track record of hardline islamists when they get in power, I’d be reserving judgment on that one for a wee while yet
Very much this... 'a change of management' is just that.. Could be better, more likely likely a free for all in the short term with various factions killing each other.
So probably the same or worse for the average citizen just trying to get by in life.
The IDF stated that these deployments are a defensive and temporary operation to protect Israel from possible instability in Syria resulting from the fall of the Syrian regime.
Israel have long wanted to add the Golan heights to their territory. Looks like they just have.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is holding a news conference in Jerusalem.
Speaking about Syria, he says "the Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the state of Israel".
Speaking about Syria, he says “the Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the state of Israel
Yeah, but his territorial ambitions are so ridiculous that in another couple of years he could be saying the same thing about Alderly Edge. It’s not actually that far from Prestwich
So war continues, we have presumably just entered the next phase:
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday that it had struck more than 75 targets, including ISIL (ISIS) leaders, operatives and camps, to ensure that the armed group does not take advantage of the end of al-Assad’s rule.
So war continues, we have presumably just entered the next phase:
Makes sense though, keep those utterly batshit crazy zealots occupied so hopefully some slightly less batshit crazy zealots fill the power vacuum...
...won't be holding my breath for moderates though.
The kurds in eastern Syria are 'overseeing' about 4000 prisoners/refugees from the isis caliphate, in degraded conditions, theres a lot of worry that its a likely breeding ground for terrorism.
I believe that Trump's commitment to Israel is highly questionable, unlike Joe Biden's whose commitment I don't question at all.
If Trump "supports" Israel then imo it is because he believes that it is in his benefit to so, I don't believe for a moment that he has any ideological or emotional commitment to Israel, or anything else for that matter.
And if he doesn't like something Trump just won't do it. Israel won't force Trump to get involved in Syria imo, if he does it will be because he wants to.
Personally I think Trump will dramatically accelerate the current US policy which seeks disengagement from the Middle East as he puts all his focus on China.
Trump's appointing some of the most hawkish pro zionists to his cabinet.
hes also very against Iran (he armed some of the Kurdish groups that have been involved in this takeover, to try and contain Iran )
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/us/politics/trump-kurds-syria-army.html
Israel's land grab in Golan will hopefully be the end of it, but i wouldn't be surprised if netenyahu pushes for more
The human race is the victim here.. we are doomed. Even I'm starting to not care any more, from wars to climate etc.. what's the point in caring any more?
Trump’s appointing some of the most hawkish pro zionists to his cabinet.
Undoubtedly, I wouldn't dispute that at all. What I am suggesting is that Trump's commitment to anything is not set in stone. All those hawkish pro zionists in his cabinet could all be gone in a year or two. Indeed Trump has a history of falling out with former allies.
And can you imagine Joe Biden standing in front of the Israeli American Council and saying this?
"A lot of you are in the real estate business because I know you very well. You’re brutal killers. Not nice people at all. But you have to vote for me; you have no choice.” - Donald Trump
By "brutal killers" and "not nice people at all" Trump was clearly referencing Israel and zionists.
All I am saying is that no one can predict with any confidence what Trump will do. He might well involve the United States in further military adventures in the Middle East, but based on his anti-interventionist Republican core base I suspect that is unlikely.
I believe that Trump’s commitment to Israel is highly questionable
Hang on, there is this: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40003636
worth it for the memes alone....
Personally I think Trump will dramatically accelerate the current US policy which seeks disengagement from the Middle East as he puts all his focus on China
He's tried that before; there's a whole world of difference between seeking disengagement and actually disengaging safely
He wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria in 2019 and was roundly criticised, while the losers would have been the US-backed Kurdish fighters and population
Clearly we'll have a new dynamic in 2025, a different Congress, different governments in the middle-east, etc. but here's a Chatham House 3-minute read on events in 2019 https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/10/trump-withdraws-troops-syria-fallout
Iran, for example, is accelerating uranium enrichment, "After pulling the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, Trump pursued a "maximum pressure" policy that sought to wreck Iran's economy. He is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-dramatically-increasing-enrichment-near-bomb-grade-iaea-chief-2024-12-06/
I think that he'd be well-served to engage diplomatically more, look at bringing Iran's escalating nuclear capability back into discussions to remove sanctions, etc. https://theconversation.com/will-trump-renew-maximum-pressure-against-iran-or-could-there-be-an-opening-for-dialogue-243478
It's not a question of Trump trying, disengagement from the Middle East is current active US policy under Joe Biden. That is one of the primary reasons why Biden has pursued the policy of normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is simply an extension of Trump's Abraham Accords policy.
At the heart of the new Israel-Saudi Arabia relations would be a military alliance which would help contain Iran and protect United States interests in the region with less US presence.
Ironically although Joe Biden is still actively pursuing this policy of Israeli-Saudi normalised relations, despite the enormous setbacks that the Hamas attack had on the situation, the US are less likely to be successful under a Trump presidency than the current one because of Saudi distrust and dislike of Trump.
The reason this Saudi dislike/distrust of Trump is because despite blaming Iran for the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil processing facilities he refused to take any action against Iran. The Saudis pleaded with Trump to take retaliatory action against Iran, Biden would have very likely obliged with something like a cruise missile strike, but Trump refused publicly claiming that he did not want war with Iran.