Storm Éowyn

It's shaping up to be the worst storm in Ireland since the 60s. Their equivalent of the 1990 Burns' Day storm here (which was a lot more destructive than the October 87 storm the media loves to talk about).

Fasten everything down if you're in the west !

Been watching this for days now. Started to form just off the east of the Gulf of Trump.
Not hit the west of Ireland yet.

It’s apparently going to be pretty gusty for everyone along the Bristol Channel, although not as bad as the last storm; hope nothing too bad happens to those in the middle of the storm regions.

Airliners clocking ground speeds of 800mph + off the coast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

Faster than sound?

Faster than sound

200 mph tailwind

It’s only moving at 550 mph through the air so not breaking the sound barrier. A story on the current record holder (825 mph) here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51433720

By 12pm tomorrow the high resolution forecast models will be very accurate for Friday, so they'll have more certainty regarding the wind speeds in the affected areas

Up to 48 hrs in advance the models are okay at telling you where it will be windy but they don't have the level of detail to provide a high level of confidence on just how windy it will be  (windspeed/intensity)

Met Eirann have issued a red warning for all of RoI and the surrounding seas.

https://www.met.ie/

Insert crude joke here

It's days like this where my Mum breathes a sign of relief from having sold her parents cottage in Ireland. The will it/won't it have a roof tomorrow was always a worry.

I have roped down all the bins and told the cat she can't play outside on Friday.

In a weird cat telepathy moment,I sensed a message " We are on the East coast,chill"

!!:-)

I'm thinking of trying to convince my boss that I'm going to 'work from home' tomorrow*. I don't fancy the 30 mile each way bus commute at the best of times, but if it's going to be as stormy as predicted in the morning, then the sofa and Netflix are looking way more attractive.

*Tricky as I'm a senior research tech in a genetics lab.

😛

I have told our staff in Scotland to take laptops home tonight and all delivery on site on western areas of UK is postponed for tomorrow as well. A shame, as Scottish team had planned to spend Friday practicing our outdoor fire and cooking skillz in the woods.

Met Office currently suggesting steady 47, gusting 88mph here in hilly South Lanarkshire around the middle of the day tomorrow.  Suspect if that happens there will be carnage, wouldn't be surprised if it goes from amber to red warning for south west central belt later today...

 practicing our outdoor fire and cooking skillz in the woods.

That'd be the ultimate practice!

Wouldn't be surprised to have some announcement via my work about tomorrow plans: one of my office buildings has a habit of the roof edge peeling back in the slightest stiff breeze. Also potential for school closures I guess.

Just glad I no longer live 160m ASL in the hills south of Falkirk. Lost 300+ roof tiles with battens ripped clean off the roof in hogmanay storm 2006-07. Had the fear living there until we moved away in 2018.

I was riding on the old train tracks at Glen Ogle not long after Hurricane Bawbag. There were healthy conifers about 18" diameter that had been snapped like matches. The trees were a huge mess. Scary stuff

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bawbag

Hurricane Bawbag

That's a proper name for a wind.

Why does every bit of winter weather have to have a special name and get whipped up into some sort of media frenzy. Yes we are getting winter storm. Its winter, why all the fuss

The naming of storms has been pretty useful when discussing past weather events, rather than that windy day sometime around January a couple of years ago.

A shame, as Scottish team had planned to spend Friday practicing our outdoor fire and cooking skillz in the woods.

My evil twin hopes they will still try and  give it a go.

!!;-)

I was riding on the old train tracks at Glen Ogle not long after Hurricane Bawbag. There were healthy conifers about 18″ diameter that had been snapped like matches. The trees were a huge mess. Scary stuff

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bawbag/blockquote >

Bawbag, what a day that was. Hardly made the news as it was only Argyll and central Scotland which got battered....

I will go find the video from my old work about 8 miles from there.
The video is all the outdoor centre staff gathered in the dining room for safety, one of the maintenance chaps pops his head out as we can all hear some popping and cracking, and were wondering what it was. As he runs back 18 Nordman Firs and other small trees play dominoes in about 30 seconds. The firs were all 1-1.5m in diameter...

This is them being bucked up a few weeks/months later.
[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/7020/6716643119_9242caa417_k.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/7020/6716643119_9242caa417_k.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/bewxZH ]DSCN0015[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/matt_outandabout/ ]Matt[/url], on Flickr

[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/7147/6716562567_a5890c04c2_k.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/7147/6716562567_a5890c04c2_k.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/bew93T ]DSCN0001[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/matt_outandabout/ ]Matt[/url], on Flickr

 

Yeah, red wind warnings here on Wicklow coast just south of Dublin. The Irish do love to shut up shop when someone farts a little briskly, but this time it seems like the fears might be well-founded - they're saying gusts of 130kmh+. Storm Darragh knocked out the power for 12 hours - and 30km inland towns were snowed in for 3 days I think.

Microsoft being hilarious: "please work from home on Friday. We understand schools and childcare may be closed so ask your manager if they can offer any flexibility". Lads, if it's half as bad as we're being told, there won't be any power or mobile signal, so you can GTF

Bawbag was the one that devastated bits of the Golfie, wasn't it? The likes of Waterworld and Boner.

Bawbag was swiftly followed up by another storm a few weeks later which did a pretty good wrecking job on our house on the East Coast.

*Tricky as I’m a senior research tech in a genetics lab.

Username checks out. Though I'm concerned that genetic research has got you from smoking fags to posting on here.....

I'm assuming that it was after Hurricane Bawbag that the Met Office decided they couldn't leave the naming of storms to the Weegies?

I was in Faindourain the night Bawbag went through. That was an interesting experience. Next morning:

https://flic.kr/p/VXrcAJ

https://flic.kr/p/VC7h1L

Why does every bit of winter weather have to have a special name and get whipped up into some sort of media frenzy.

Because...

wouldn’t be surprised if it goes from amber to red warning for south west central belt later today

That's it red now!

Very worried about all the trees behind my house

Why does every bit of winter weather have to have a special name and get whipped up into some sort of media frenzy.

Because if you type in "the great storm of ...." into the search bar it brings up way too many hits to be useful.

That and "Bawbag" wasn't very BBC News at 6 friendly.

Hurricane bide in yer scratcher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bawbag/blockquote >
I love the fact that the Wiki article has that as the main name with the official name redirecting to it, rather than the other way around

 

deep red in kerry - all my kite flying plans for this weekend are out the window.

That’s it red now!

Indeed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5yvj74dyzo. There goes my riding plans for tomorrow! (not that I'd have gone out in the amber warning anyway).

You're flying your kite from the window?

Red warning now for central belt and SW. Things could get pretty spicy. It's not often we see gusts into the mid 80s forecasted for Edinburgh even though its always breezy! This is the reason why storms get named; I am not sure why people get such a bee in their bonnet about it...Ireland is in the firing line for one of the most severe storms in recent history.

The shipping forecast is using very rare terms like "Hurricane force 12" and "phenomenal sea state" which I never heard once throughout listening every day whilst working at sea for several years.

Slightly worried that the Tweed Valley is going to have another nightmare...much of Glentress is open to the wind direction and it will be absolutely screaming up that valley. Last time there was a storm named after a woman from Lord of the Rings it caused sever problems!

I also have an unmissable appointment at the hospital tomorrow...I am glad it is just a 10 minute drive and in the early morning!

Very worried about all the trees behind my house

indeed, I reckon we may get a battering here in EK.  Last really big one was a few years back and a lot of folks lost bits off their roofs, and more...

I have next week off (I am starting a new job the week after) and I was thinking about going down to Glentress to have a ride on my new bicycle at some point.

I am going to keep my fingers crossed that the wind isn't too bad down there tomorrow and doesn't cause a lot of damage to the forest and trails!

Why does every bit of winter weather have to have a special name and get whipped up into some sort of media frenzy.

Notable how, up until the 90s, there was only one named storm every few years or so. Multiple per year since then. Reporting/recording, or climate change ...hmm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_windstorms

I don't know what you're all worried about - as you can see the storm stops at the border, youse'll all be fine!

On BBC weather last night they were talking about the weather warning but said it doesn’t cover the Isle of Man. Not because they won’t be affected but because they aren’t covered by the met office? Seemed odd.

Storm that decimated the golfie and other forests was Arwen, not Bawbag. Arwen was unusual I think as its winds were north easterly mainly.

Notable how, up until the 90s, there was only one named storm every few years or so.

Presumably that's because before we got together with a couple of other countries to name storms that hit northern Europe from the Atlantic / North Sea we only used names for those that were originally named by the US.

i.e. if a weather system develops off west Africa and travels west to the Caribbean then the US names it and we use the same name for clarity. Most hurricanes hit land and disappear, it's only a few that make a turn and head back across the Atlantic.

If a weather system develops in the Caribbean and heads north east to us then we name it.  Until relatively recently this wasn't done.

nicko74Full Member

I don’t know what you’re all worried about – as you can see the storm stops at the border, youse’ll all be fine!

Save that for the Brexit benefits thread.

@desperatebicycle - it's a change in communication mainly (though these are becoming more common events). Started in maybe 2014/15 or so IIRC. A lot of the old named storms were named by the US and we dealt with the remnants of them referring to the same name. But it's rare that we get the same intensity of storms if it's one that came from over the pond.

I think it's useful as it allows easier reference by one name. Everyone can remember Storm Arwen or Storm Babet when referring to it. I can imagine people will be talking about Storm Eowyn in future as well if the forecast holds true - rather than "The storm Of late January 2025" or something.

Two weather apps on my phone one came pre installed it says the winds in my area tomorrow will be about 15-18 kph, the other one installed by me says  the winds will be upto 70-80mph.

We'll see. I expect there will be renewed efforts to uninstall the pre installed app  on Saturday.

Great! I'm supposed to be flying to Dublin tomorrow.  I hope they cancel the flights early enough so I'm not in limbo at the airport.

ChuckMorrisFree Member
Great! I’m supposed to be flying to Dublin tomorrow.  I hope they cancel the flights early enough so I’m not in limbo at the airport.

Dublin Airport Authority meeting with the airlines right now I think, to discuss what's what. There'll definitely be nothing flying in or out in the morning - just a case of whether the airline makes it 'official' in time for you.

A family member who lives on the Ayrshire coast shared their bbc weather forecast, showing 80-90mph gusts tomorrow. That's proper batten down the hatches territory, and is going to cause damage and disruption...

Thanks for the info @nicko74.

I was in Faindourain the night Bawbag went through. That was an interesting experience. Next morning:

You became a skilled charcoal artist?

Dublin Airport Authority meeting with the airlines right now I think, to discuss what’s what. There’ll definitely be nothing flying in or out in the morning – just a case of whether the airline makes it ‘official’ in time for you.

Going to be a whole load of cancelled / disrupted / diverted flights from tomorrow and then over the weekend as they try to get planes and crew back to where they should be...

flights

And trains, buses, truck deliveries etc.

Red warning here in NI, never had one of these before, batten down the hatches...

Isle of Man Government run its own separate weather forecasting service, it is not part of UK Met Office but as is the way of these things data and information flows backwards and forwards between the two.  IoM Met Office issues official weather warnings for Isle of Man, and UK Met Office doesn't.  Similar arrangements exist in the Channel Islands re States of Jersey and Guernsey.

The IoM Met Office do have their own Red warning in place for the Isle of Man tomorrow, and a little bit of effort by the BBC presenter would have uncovered that, but many of the aspects and intricacies of the diverse nature of governance across the UK and its various territories and dependancies seem quite opaque to UK wide broadcasters

it’s a change in communication mainly (though these are becoming more common events). Started in maybe 2014/15 or so IIRC. A lot of the old named storms were named by the US and we dealt with the remnants of them referring to the same name.

Erm...

Storms are named now as a public safety campaign to increase awareness - it stops people like Derek driving his high-sided truck over the A66 thus endangering all other motorists and the emergency services who will inevitably have to rescue him when he gets blown over by a 80mph gust.

They get named based upon the impact of the storm on the affected location.
look at the FAQ here:  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index

The frequency and severity of storms has not radically changed in recent years, there has been some subtle increases though.  We are fortunate in that the majority of these powerful storm systems tend to veer northward and thus do not affect highly populated areas. A big storm smashing Shetland and northern Norway is not as newsworthy as a medium sized storm hitting London or Rotterdam.

Also these events are not usually tired tropical cyclones (TC)  that transition into extra-tropical cyclones (ETC) although that can and does happen (ex-Hurricane Leslie smashed into Portugal in 2018). The peak Hurricane season in the Atlantic is May to November whereas these ETCs tend to be a winter phenomena with peak season Oct to Mar.  These ETCs can happen at any time of the year if the conditions are right.

We're on the North coast of Anglesey. I still haven't fixed my garage roof, half of which blew off in the last storm...

The various Red warnings issued by different Met agencies are done to different sets of criteria, and that means that in a very similar weather situation then there can be differences in the warnings in force between the various agencies, even if they are forecasting similar weather.

AIUI Met Eirann issue Red warnings if wind is likely to gust above 130km per hour, - a simple threshold -  whereas UK Met Office try and provide a more complex and subjective risk assessment of whether or not the winds are highly likely to have a high impact on the population and services in the affected area - so there is no set threshold number with the UK Met Office that automatically triggers a Red warning.  This can mean that Red warnings can end up being issued at different wind speed values for different storms in the UK depending on where and when the storm occurs.  12 hrs of 75mph winds in Birmingham or Manchester in daytime would probably be more likely to produce severe strain on some aspects of society than eg 3 hrs of 85mph winds in ...say for the sake of argument Shetland.  Thats not to say Shetland wouldn't see problems, of course it would, but there are things like the familiarity of the population with windy weather and the lack of tree cover that mean things may not be as acute there, and an Amber warning may be more appropriate in some circumstances.

Red warnings shut things down, and need to be used carefully and sparingly and simplistic wind speed threshold can work against that

Hmm, weather is fairly benign on Monday when I planned to ride every little bit of sketchy low down singletrack around Dunblane and Stirling, am thinking there could be a few trees down though! Maybe head east to Dundee and enjoy a bit of a tailwind back instead...

We're in the Strathearn windtunnel between Stirling and Perth, and we're basically at the highest point, could be interesting to hear it whistling past!

The use of a simplistic parametric trigger is a bit siily and the UKMO system is probably better thought out in that regard.  Where will the 130km/h occur? on a lighthouse 10km off land? On a hill? At Dublin airport? At my auntie's house in Co. Carlow? Also, the damage to buildings and infrastructure at 129km/h is identical to 130km/h.

In many ways it's good that we have these warning systems now. When the "Great Storm of 1987", or "87J", arrived the prediction models were still in their infancy. With the increase in computing power, satellites and other instrumentation we are in a much more informed position now and thus can provide these warnings (to those that will listen)

We’re in the Strathearn windtunnel between Stirling and Perth, and we’re basically at the highest point, could be interesting to hear it whistling past!

I will lob a tennis ball into the maelstrom from our house and you can catch it a few minutes / 14 miles later.

And yes, Darn path etc will be battered I suspect...

@ElShalimo - I didn't word it very well (skiving at work), but that's more or less exactly what I was trying to say.

Red warnings shut things down, and need to be used carefully and sparingly and simplistic wind speed threshold can work against that

Possibly the complaints (about too many named weather events) arise because so much of our weather is now given an alert of some kind which people then gossip about more than they normally would, and because of the way in which those alerts are used. I've seen a few cancellations of events, and closures, because of yellow weather warnings in the few months - one was a craft market which takes place once a month near the city centre (can't remember whether this was wind or rain or both), and two were closures of all outdoor areas at WWT Llanelli, a wetland nature reserve. (both for wind) I was at the reserve for both these closures and was quite surprised to get back to the visitor centre to find notices up blocking the exits. They were windy autumn/winter days, I hadn't been risking my life out in extreme weather.

They do cancel craft fairs and markets etc for yellow warnings not because people may die but because those craft stalls are not really suitable for use in high wind and there'll be tarps, cupcakes, wooden letters and homemade candles blowing all over the place.  I've seen stallholders pack up and go before in moderate winds so it makes sense to cancel it so people don't turn up and have to go home again.

Two weather apps on my phone one came pre installed it says the winds in my area tomorrow will be about 15-18 kph, the other one installed by me says  the winds will be upto 70-80mph.

Nearly all weather apps buy generic global weather data mostly from US forecasters.  This is low resolution and doesn't take into account local features - because it covers the whole world. You should use the Met Office because they're the people who've been specialising in UK weather for a really long time and are about as good as it's possible to get.  But use your brain - they give a percentage chance of rain during any given hour, so if you get 20% numbers all day there may not be a raindrop symbol but the chance of rain at some point during the day is quite high.

Also worth noting that 20% rain is not a 20% chance of rain. It’s a forecast that there will be rain in 20% of the forecast area.

Cancelling events etc is often about the inability of the general public to behave responsibly and having to deal with the fallout of cancelling mid-event. Also you can't get sued by someone getting hurt doing something silly if you cancel the event.

The self-entitlement on display is often hilarious. "An asteroid is about to hit us yet they want to cancel our wedding reception to use the village hall as an emergency shelter...don't they know how that will make me feel. Boo hoo "

as you can see the storm stops at the border

yesterday the warnings map showed the Republic as red and all of NI as 'orange'!

now it looks like we're all in it together, red all over:

Cancelling events etc is often about the inability of the general public to behave responsibly

You have met my BiL who is determined to take 1 year old daughter to an event in Glasgow from home in Stirling tomorrow....

Also worth noting that 20% rain is not a 20% chance of rain. It’s a forecast that there will be rain in 20% of the forecast area.

only if your source of reference is tiktok

Met office* have confirmed both on their website - and their social media that  20% chance of rain would be a 2/10 chance of rain nothing to do with a forecast area.

*other agencies may differ

Link to Met Office "What does this forecast mean?" page which explains the components of the forecast. Here's the precip explation verbatim:

Chance of precipitation
For example, a 70% chance means a 7 in 10 chance that precipitation will fall at some point during that period.

Precipitation means falling water (rain, sleet, snow, hail or drizzle).

We show the chance that at least 0.1mm of precipitation will fall within 1 hour, on the hourly forecast. Or 0.3mm within 3 hours on the 3 hourly forecast. This precipitation may fall across the whole time or fall in a short sharp burst. The weather symbol can help show the difference between light and heavy precipitation.

With respect to weather apps and resolution MO data is 1.5km (deterministic) and 2km (ensemble) over the UK  compared to most global forecasts being ~10km (ECMWF, main supplier of medium range forecasts over Europe is 9km deterministic and ensemble).

Cancelling events etc is often about the inability of the general public to behave responsibly and having to deal with the fallout of cancelling mid-event. Also you can’t get sued by someone getting hurt doing something silly if you cancel the event.

Or a complete inability to grasp that events dont spring up instantly such as when the NYE stuff in Edinburgh got cancelled and lots of smooth brains were ranting that the weather wasn't actually that bad on NYE, but completely fail to understand that the infrastructure required for the event wouldn't just suddenly appear on NYE, because fairies, and in fact would have to be built in the days preceding that, and it wasn't a great idea to try and build stages and electrical stuff in the middle of gale force winds and torrential rain

I stand corrected, thanks. I got that notion somewhere obviously but clearly never bothered to check it myself…I always look at the radar for an indication of whether or not it will rain and I don’t pay attention to the percentages which is probably why I never thought about checking my understanding of them.

I think the comms on it wasn't great until the past couple of years. There's a nice paper about how the public do (or don't...) understand probabilities used in forecasts for the (very!) interested reader.

Aaaaaand that's the schools closed tomorrow in Perth and Kinross 😥

Wife will be furious, she's off Fridays. Will need to fabricate some sort of work crisis so I can shut myself away in my office and avoid the carnage of a bored house-bound 7 year old (and bored house-bound cat, who will probably be hiding with me) 😆

Seems all of Stirling council services closed - and I have text from doctors to say emergencies only, no hospital or care home visitors tomorrow etc.

 I have text from doctors to say emergencies only, no hospital or care home visitors tomorrow etc.

That's sensible given the forecast.
A 50 mph wind will knock Morag over in the car park and the 75mph gusts will pin her there until Tuesday

The system is probably going to come in slightly further north than the earlier forecasts but it's still going to be very disruptive at best.

@13thfloor - same, I have every other Friday off and a) The weather is always shite and b)whenever the schools shut it’s a Friday.

My children’s school is only half shut so one is in and one not FFs

Having grown up on the Ayrshire coast, I normally think these things are a bit over-hyped but err....

Bloody hell, 100mph gusts and a central pressure of under 950mB

Last time I went out on foot near the house to see how an 80mph gust felt I lost my glasses...blown clean off and never seen again!  A painstaking search to find them on a calmer day ,as I had seen  their trajectory but never found. An expensive mistake that.

I had emerged from a sheltered leeward spot, decided to go back pretty much straight away and it that split second they flew off.....

Ooh the phone alarm thing is good though. BLLAAARARRGH BLLLARRRGH