To be fair I read flaperons post and realised he’s self invested and quite possibly also on crack.
Wow, nice to see the ad hominin attacks going strong. What did I do to deserve that?
I'm self-invested only to the extent that I work in the airline industry, and that I'd feel more secure if I worked for IAG than, say, for Norwegian.
Please re-read your post and take a moment to consider whether it genuinely required the offensiveness you gave it. Everyone is under pressure at the moment but that doesn't give you the excuse to behave like that.
I'm surprised so many tech companies are getting hit hard with stock price drops, inc. the company I work for (which is annoying as they're the only shares I own outside of pensions).
As for buying airline shares now I think that would be a massive gamble, we're only just at the start of this crisis and it's going to get a lot worse for airlines before it gets better. Some are bound to go under even if the government does try and prop the industry up. Even if IAG & Easyjet survive I don't think the reduced competition factor is going to lead to a massive share price rise any time soon, they're still both losing a lot of money in the short-medium term.
Both IAG and EasyJet strong in my opinion. If they collapse I suspect that we’ll be using hand sanitiser and toilet rolls as currency instead of pounds.
Whether they’ve reached rock-bottom is a totally different question.
Agreed. Interesting that IAG aren't shouting for a government payout for airlines, I think they reckon they can tough it out whilst a lot of their competitors go belly up (which they will). The main problem for airlines is now is the perfect time to be booking that summer holiday. If nobody does that then it's going to be a long cold hard winter following that - maybe the time to pick up shares then if they are still around.
Ftse up a bit today. Ocado up 10% - they are turning away new customers!
I see easy jet are down to 5gbp, they were 15 gbp just 1 month ago. No idea how much cash they have and if steelios wants to buy back his old company.
Also following the oil majors, shell were last 9 quid in 1997, what the media dont mention is that in that period they have paid out c 20 gbp in dividends so the shares for the long term holders owe you nothing.
I'd be buying Boeing, Airbus and BAE systems.
Boeing and Airbus have NO competition in their home markets. America wont let Boeing fail and Europe won't let Airbus fail. Both companies currently have a backlog of some 5000-9000 aircraft, now whilst some of these may not be required as carriers go out of business, do we seriously believe that in 5 years people won't be travelling as much? Also Airbus and Boeing have strong Defence and Space aspects to their business which are largely unaffected by the Pandemic. Currently Boeing's share price is 20% of what it was 14 months ago and Airbus' stock price is 40% of what it was 2 months ago. BAE who have very limited exposure to the pandemic other than production delays are down almost 25%...why? because everyone else in aerospace is...
Boeing have the small matter of the 737 MAX to deal with along with the current slowdown (abrupt stop?) of air travel. Not sure things are looking that rosy for them.
sure, but 40% of Boeing is defence and their aircraft orders would be delivered over 10 years of production. VW survived the dieselgate scandal even after €31bn of fines and losses. Boeing are in much better shape than VW were.
So Daffy have you invested in the companies you suggested?
Yup.
Brave decision; hope you make money out of it.
Sainsburys up 12.6% today (other supermarket shares up too) thought it looked a little low for one of the few companies with a mandate to carry on trading.
Ocado another 10% in a day and the supermarkets are doing well. Oil companies looking grat value at the moment too.
As for buying airline shares now I think that would be a massive gamble
Well... Yeah, that was sort of the point, I don't put money on horses or Wendyball though so I have to get my kicks somehow.
To the extent that all investments are a gamble, especially at the moment.
The main gamble with airlines is of course around these companies folding in the midst of a global pandemic driven, global recession, I'm assuming that if it gets to a critical point at least some airlines will be receiving government assistance.
After the event they will recover (eventually), so I'm just letting them ride.
I seem to be getting daily updates from my FA. However, as we took a long term cautious approach years ago not much is changing in reality. We are a long way off even an early retirement. The general gist is that diversification is key to avoid any individual problem areas - that is both geographical and market. Also a mix of equity and cash. We were slightly over weighted in cash 12 months ago so where there is perceived value it is worth considering buying. There's no doubt some areas will bounce back and are just caught up in the general turmoil.
I've not checked my pension since Xmas and I won't be for a while either.
It's a shame I can't upload a picture. Back when I was 18 I was given a couple of thousand pounds by my gran. It went into a index linked tracker ISA (probably not an ISA at that point?). At the start of the year it was worth around £8000 so it had gone up 4x. I have a spreadsheet of financial stuff so I plotted a graph based on the values I recorded over the years. Generally it goes up. There are a couple of blips. 2008 being one where it halved in value temporarily. There was a fairly large drop in 2015 as well. My take home from this is that if you are in this for the long term you should hold your nerve and ride it out.
I’m assuming that if it gets to a critical point at least some airlines will be receiving government assistance.
whilst true, if it takes the same form as assistance for some banks did in 2008, the airline may not fold but your shares are still worthless
Looks like most airlines will use the opportunity to screw over staff as an alternative to taking Government bailout. Seeing what's been proposed for EasyJet is shocking; especially since none of their senior management is taking a paycut.
Anyone looking into nappy manufacturers and companies making baby items?
I think you could get a good return in about 9 mths.....
I have reckit benkeiser who own durex, up 5% today. So maybe not baby stuff.
edd
Don’t sell, but when to buy?
I’ve started buying now.
I was wrong...
Definitely take the long-term view. I've just received this advice from my IFA:
The UK Equity market produces a healthy dividend currently worth around 5% of current value. Even with rather tepid growth, if you accept the premise that there will be a return to normality once the impact of the coronavirus fades, then it looks like markets are discounting significant cuts to dividends In the UK, the convention is to maintain dividends unless your long-term ability to meet them has fundamentally changed, therefore such cuts seem unlikely.
Underpinning UK dividend yields is a large amount of oil and gas profitability. As time passes oil and gas supply should naturally decline and the market will naturally come back into balance in due course with every chance of current dividends being maintained.
There can be no question that the coronavirus is very serious, and the headlines in the US and UK are liable to get worse before they get better, however it is also the case that we believe it will prove to be a temporary phenomenon and as such should only have a modest lasting impact on financial markets.
I’ve just had 3 days “working from home” with my missus (also trying to WFH) and a 2 year old who’s not been allowed into nursery.
I’m investing heavily in Laithwaites and Majestic and, as our local independent wine shop isn’t listed on the stock market, I’m investing directly with them as well! 14 weeks of this??!?!
I have just dropped a couple of grand in bp shares £2.95 a share wasn’t that long ago they wer twice that.
Can I ask if that was via an ISA?
Im desperately trying to get some of that at present but can't find where to buy the damn stuff.
Cheers
Ooh this is exciting.
I've just opened an ISA online, chucked 3 grand in and put in an order for 1000 BP.
Or at least that's what I think I've done.
I've probably just transferred £3k to some hoodlum in Nigeria.
I'm such a tube....
Help
sorry wrong thread
I have been watching for a while and thought today was the time to buy. I have added:
ROR
BP
BAB
STOB
First three are all undervalued (in my opinion) at the moment. STOB is a gamble but I held at £1.10 and think they may be worth a punt
Are there any complications to buying US shares?
edd
Don’t sell, but when to buy?
I’ve started buying now.
I was wrong…
Chapeau. You must be new here, apologies or admissions of anything less than omnipotence are scarce!
all undervalued
I think so but short term there are a couple more shocks to come - running out of ICU beds and troops on the street - which will probably damage confidence and price further. FTSE 100 touched 5K mark a couple of times this week I think another shock will send it down below. Positive recovery point will be ICU numbers dropping. IMHO.
Still if you don't mind speculating rather than investing some big gains to be had if you are brave. DTG (Jet2) rose 75% today, but that's after dropping to 10% of it's peak value yesterday...
Are there any complications to buying US shares?
Pretty straight forward to invest in a fund that invests in US or any other shares.
Ooh this is exciting.
I’ve just opened an ISA online, chucked 3 grand in and put in an order for 1000 BP.
Ooh. Currently £1380 up on BP (YES, I know, just on paper)
So whadda we all reckon to Barclays for the long term? Lost fifty percent in the last weeks so has plenty of room to go back up....
(Or indeed down)
Goodness, gambling is indeed addictive.
Are there any complications to buying US shares?
Actually holding stocks on NASDAQ etc needs a tax type form to be filled out by hand and sent off to your broker.
Bp are yielding 11% even with today's uplift in share price. Some good tips on advfn bp, and some rubbish posted too....sound familiar.
Reason bp and rdsb yield 10%+ is oil sub 30 USD the divi is paid out of borrowing so unsustainable. Saying that the longer this goes on the mid caps will go bust leaving just the strongest.
Also divis are denominated in USD so a nice uplift into GBP.
Good luck, I m into rdsb so not bothered, seen this twice before and carried on buying. After 10 years of divis the shares owe u nothing as u have your initial outlay back.
I’ve been avoiding oil companies as I worry about how the next 20 years will be for them but at current prices they do look good for a small punt
Should add my bias is for long term stocks that don’t really need touching and pay dividends
That said all I’ve spent money on this month with all the doom is petrol, oil to service the car, food and beer
So I guess that’s what I should invest in as I don’t imagine buying anything I don’t have to for a while
Bike suppliers and companies might be worth a punt.
On the phone to Evans today ( I know I know !) and the guy said bike orders have went through the roof after Boris' comments yesterday.
Thought I'd resurrect this now we are the right side of the curve (hopefully). There is a lot of talk in the news of sales being down and a big recession on the way but I've noticed Fundsmith, where I have a few quid stashed for the pension, are pretty much back to their lifetime peak in Feb. Is this normal and to be expected? Seems one heck of a bounce. Is the doom and gloom yet to come?
[img] 
[/img]
https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsheet/charts?s=GB00B4Q5X527:GBP
Fundsmith's top holdings are in software & computer services and medical equipment & services, with a side helping of personal care, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology. It's almost as if Terry Smith knew what he was doing. My global technology funds are also doing very well. On the other hand it may just be a bounce and we'll all be bankrupt tomorrow, YMMV etc.
Thought I’d resurrect this now we are the right side of the curve (hopefully).
Not a hope, this is just the first peak!
There is a lot of talk in the news of sales being down and a big recession on the way but I’ve noticed Fundsmith, where I have a few quid stashed for the pension, are pretty much back to their lifetime peak in Feb. Is this normal and to be expected? Seems one heck of a bounce. Is the doom and gloom yet to come?
Certainly unusual, first time that tech stocks are doing better than the rest in a crash, normally they tank furthest.
However, we've only just started this roller coaster ride and had many more ups and downs to go yet. Once we finally come out of the 2nd or 3rd lockdown after the various peaks, we'll have most economies on their knees, needing trillions invested in proping them up for years to come.
Effectively we have 25% of the UK unemployed on the furlough scheme and the stock market is only 10% or so down, doesn't make any sense.
We are a very long way from seeing where it all ends up.....
Fundsmith is in no way unusual in that. My pension recorded an investment loss (cira 8%) at the year end which was about a month or so ago. All that loss has been completely made up only 6 weeks or so later. There's a similar picture on other investment funds too.
That said I don't disagree with footflaps.
Effectively we have 25% of the UK unemployed on the furlough scheme and the stock market is only 10% or so down, doesn’t make any sense.
We are a very long way from seeing where it all ends up…..
Yep, seems weird and who knows. For long term investing the key is time in the market so buy and hold. Just bought another month's salary chunk of VWRP today. Don't sweat it - it's a long game.
It’s not just them though. My HL SIPP which is mostly the Barings Select fund has bounced very slightly higher than it’s prior highest point.
My main “worry” is that last week I opened a Vanguard Stocks and Shares ISA for my wife’s and I to pool our various little bits of savings together into one single more easily accessible place. Beyond the opening amount, I’m now nervous of throwing it all in their because of this high peak, because maybe we’ll face another sudden drop and we’ll lose a fair bit. The money is short term 2-5 years max so I really don’t want to lose it.
What would be the advice, wait or invest?
I've been trading for some time now and have a few stocks for long term but mainly do fairly short term trades, buying on any downturns and selling soon after.
This has done me quite well over the years and I've had a few recent stocks that have done exceptionally well over the last few months. The recent trend has been pharma's that have any sniff of a covid treatment (that and gold exploration!)
People are getting carried away on sentiment and pilling into the aim listed stocks without looking at balance sheets etc, 600% to 1000% short term spikes have been common, only to see them crash down once reality kicks in. I've made a small fortune by taking the gamble and buying up penny shares once any covid news comes out and selling a week later.
At the moment though I'm about 80% cash in my trading ISA, the covid crash and bounce is over, I personally think there's a huge crash coming with the impending recession/depression. There's a lot more suffering to come for the markets yet and I'm keeping cash handy to make the most of it.
Looking at market indexes, rather than individual stocks, they have generally been on the rise since 23rd March. What happened then? Massive stimulation packages announced by the central banks (led by the fed). This would suggest to my, admittedly simplistic, mind that the rebound has been driven by these stimulation packages. Quite how long this can go on is something I don't know/ understand. Curious if someone could explain?
What would be the advice, wait or invest?
Probably sensible in this market to split it into 4 chunks and the purchase by 2 or 3 months for each chunk. For example:
25% today
25% 1st Aug
25% 1st Oct
25% 1st Jan
Make a plan and stick to it. Also, bear in mind that any money invested at the exact peak of the market in late 2007 still made 7.2% year on year over the next 10 years. Don't be too short term in the outlook. You'll do well - just leave it alone!
I trade mainly on the AIM market. Risky but made a lot of money out of it. Equally lost as well
Basically do yr research, wether it be long term or short term.
Day trading offers little return
AIM only put in what you are prepared to loose. Blue chip and is FTSE is long term
The money is short term 2-5 years max so I really don’t want to lose it.
What would be the advice, wait or invest?
Not invest in the stock market! Min timeline for stocks and shares should really be about 10 years. Under 5 just use a savings account or premium bonds.
Personally I am expecting a big correction (dip) in stock markets once the actual reality of the economic damage becomes clear, right now it's all hidden by government funding schemes which are keeping things on life support. Once that starts tapering in Q4, you will see company insolvencies and unemployment rocket, at which point it will become apparent that the UK's consumer spending led economy will be on crutches for several years. Something like 25% of pubs, shops, restaurants won't re-open.
NB We may soon have the CV-19 equivalent of War bonds appearing, which might be a better mid term bet.
If you're interested in the stats of just how bad things are, I recommend David Smith in the Sunday Times, his economics column is excellent.
I trade mainly on the AIM market. Risky but made a lot of money out of it. Equally lost as well
Basically do yr research, wether it be long term or short term.
Day trading offers little return
AIM only put in what you are prepared to loose. Blue chip and FTSE 500 is long term
Do your due dillagance
Best of luck whatever you do.
Foot flaps, the Vanguard Lifestrategy funds have differing ratios with the less risky deferring towards a greater percentage of Bonds. Would you not consider those?
Foot flaps, the Vanguard Lifestrategy funds have differing ratios with the less risky deferring towards a greater percentage of Bonds. Would you not consider those?
I still think if your timeline is less than 10 years you shouldn't really be investing in stocks and shares esp in a time of great economic uncertainty. QE pushes down bond yields, so it's not exactly a good time to be buying bonds either (the treasury sold some with a negative yield last week).
Right now, uncertainty is about as high as you can get; no one know when CV-19 will be under control, no one knows what will be left of the economy, no one knows how long it will take to rebuild it all. The last time we saw anything like this was 1930 and it was very very painful for years. So my advice (for what its worth) is buy Premium bonds or stick your money in a 'Marcus' account (Goldman Sachs) unless you can stomach a 40% loss in the next year or so, in which case take the plunge....
Another cheery consideration is that unlike in 2008 when Gordon Brown did an excellent job in tackling the crisis (for all his faults), today we are led by Trump and Bojo, two of the most useless leaders you could possibly wish for. Both totally self centred, isolationist (Brexit / America First) and only care about themselves; the worst possible type of person to have in charge when you need long term international leadership in a time of global crisis.
For amusements sake, I thought it may be worth time stamping the value of the Vanguard Lifestrategy 100 UK equity fund.
Price (GBP)
As at date 22 May 2020
£217.53
Let's say our investment is £100,000 for round numbers sake
I'll try and update each quarter and see where it takes us.
I’ve discovered NSI’s ISA and Guaranteed Income Bonds. Both seem very good, I may choose one of those.
The Lifestrategy funds only make sense if you have to buy an annuity at a set date (which is no longer the case).
Given current life expextancies are pretty high (although going down thanks to Austerity), you could easily need a pension to last 40+ years. So tapering out of high growth stocks and shares into low growth bonds at say 50, means you only have a couple of decades of growth (ages 30-50) to then fund maybe 50 years of a pension (ages 50-100). You'd need some pretty good growth to make that work.
An alternate strategy is draw down, keep your pension fund in stocks and shares until the day you die, you will get much better growth and take something like 4% of the value each year as a pension. The downside is you will have ups and downs in the fund during retirement and have to adjust your annual take accordingly, the upside is you'll be much better off overall.
NB I'm 49 and something like 98% invested in S&S, I think one of my managed funds has a few grand in bonds. I have no intention of adjusting the ratio.
My Vanguard has performed pretty poorly. I bought it to diversify a bit but if I'd just bought more Fundsmith I'd be a good few grand richer (not in real money). I do like Fundsmith as a stick it in and forget about solution but I feel I should have more of a spread, just not sure in what.
Massive stimulation packages announced by the central banks (led by the fed). This would suggest to my, admittedly simplistic, mind that the rebound has been driven by these stimulation packages. Quite how long this can go on is something I don’t know/ understand. Curious if someone could explain?
Not complicated - if governments print lots of new money it has to go somewhere. We've been inflating asset prices since 2009/10 with funny money, so no reason it can't carry on. I mean, apart from all the rampant inequality its exacerbating, but no-one in govt gives a flip about that...
The Lifestrategy funds only make sense if you have to buy an annuity at a set date (which is no longer the case).Given current life expextancies are pretty high (although going down thanks to Austerity), you could easily need a pension to last 40+ years. So tapering out of high growth stocks and shares into low growth bonds at say 50, means you only have a couple of decades of growth (ages 30-50) to then fund maybe 50 years of a pension (ages 50-100). You’d need some pretty good growth to make that work.
You've got Vanguard Lifestrategy funds confused with Vanguard target retirement funds. The former don't vary the asset/bond ratio with time, the latter do.
My Vanguard has performed pretty poorly.
Is it a passive tracker (/index fund) or an actively managed fund? Vanguard do both. If it's the former, it will have performed exactly as well as the market(s) it tracks over the period you've owned it.
My Vanguard has performed pretty poorly. I bought it to diversify a bit but if I’d just bought more Fundsmith I’d be a good few grand richer
But that is diversification. Managing risk. If Terry Smith makes a balls up and loses money compared to the overall stock market then your tracker will compensate to some extent. The Neil Woodford fund crash shows the danger of all eggs in one basket no matter how good the basket looks.
I Went into Fundsmith the first month it opened. I've not sold any of it. But I still wouldn't go all in. Through huge Fundsmith growth since 2011 and other stuff growing less and being sold to fund big purchases Fundsmith is now around 50% of my savings. Not sure I'd like it any higher.
I Went into Fundsmith the first month it opened. I’ve not sold any of it. But I still wouldn’t go all in. Through huge Fundsmith growth since 2011 and other stuff growing less and being sold to fund big purchases Fundsmith is now around 50% of my savings. Not sure I’d like it any higher.
I'm even higher than that and it has been a great earner for me since 2010(?) I am a bit nervous about being so heavily invested and I am starting to diversify. I am 55 and i will keep some exposure to equities until I shuffle off my mortal coil but it would be prudent to make it a lower percentage of my portfolio and move slightly more into bonds. It depends on your attitude to risk and proximity to needing an income from it I suppose
The Lifestrategy funds only make sense if you have to buy an annuity at a set date (which is no longer the case).
They dont obligate you to purchase an annuity and you can continue to invest in them (and draw down from your SIPP) and simply take advantage of the low costs and a portfolio that is split between equities and bonds at a % you are happy with. They are just a fund like any other just one that has been managed by Vanguard.
I give you Stocks and Chers
Now look at the bottom left picture of her and imaging Cher's going down
imaging Cher’s going down
No No No..... its so wrong!
For amusements sake, I thought it may be worth time stamping the value of the Vanguard Lifestrategy 100 UK equity fund.
Price (GBP)
As at date 22 May 2020£217.53
Let’s say our investment is £100,000 for round numbers sake
I’ll try and update each quarter and see where it takes us.
1st August
£224.58
"portfolio" = £103,240.93
