[Closed] Stock market doom

Depends what you’ve got and what you want!

Investing is a long term business. In general I think there's no point in trying to time the market. Keep investing a small amount each month in solid businesses, so you're buying shares when they're cheap (pound cost averaging) and wait.

If you're going to need cash within the next few years that changes the equation, so maybe sell and buy bonds.

Donnie has hitched his wagon to the Dow Jones, and as we know Donnie is never wrong,

It depends whether you think central banks are serious about quantitative tightening and raising Interest Rates.

I'm in two minds as to whether they are, normally they will do whatever they can to keep this bubble economy going, however if inflation starts getting out of control, they will have no option but to raise rates.

But I've thought that before and been wrong.

Out out out out..

Its been on a high for months, it’s due a correction.

Or...

Always sit tight if you can. Shares go up as well as down in value, its only a matter of time till they recover. Getting rid now is just silly, unless of course you need the cash then you're stuffed.

Always sit tight, try to have 3/5 years in liquid assets so you can ride out any drops, replenish liquid assets in the good times and re invest the rest... or so I was told.

Just top up if it corrects, sadly the biggest inflows are when the market peaks, biggest outflows when it falls.  Just sit tight and be selective.  Some of my steady eddie stocks are way off their highs, imperial brands for eg, last years darling, this year its out of favour.  I ve been topping up.

One of my biggest gains has also been one of my biggest losses, rdsb, again, top up at its lows, sell a few when it peaks.

Good luck, hold tight, in the long term the buy in prices become academic.

Roughly the spread is as follows, So base your answers on that.
70% Nutmeg risk 8 (s&s isa) fully managed. Probably won't touch this.
20% Fundsmith. Probably wont touch this either.
10% B&G Scottish mortgage. This could go tits up but should bounce back.
Little bit of a cash cushion so I don't need to jump out, but could use the cash for a house or some other investment to spread the risk a bit more.
I take the max CGT allowance out each year in non-isa accounts if they make that much.
Thing is, stocks have dropped but businesses are doing well so dividends should be OK.
Interested to know, what are your thoughts on property funds?

Basic rule of investing in the stock market, don't buy or sell according to how it's doing, buy or sell according to how you're doing (ie whether you have spare money or need it for something else. Trying to second guess the market is a mug's game.

Also: diversification is your friend, but there's no need to go overboard with this. Risk only decreases gradually as the number of different investment grows.

So, if people who are in are feeling uncomfortable, logically it’s a good time to get in, no? buy low, sell high? Or is that overly simplistic a way to look at it?

It’s always a good time to buy if you’ve got spare money and don’t mind a bit of risk.

It's been on a bull run for 9 years straight, the last week is in the noise.

Genuine question as I've never bought a stock in my life

Is there a good resource in fairly layman terms for understanding how it all works? Any good book recommendations?

I'm very curious but it feels like gambling unless I educate myself

stick a tenner into and oanda account, see where you get to.

I've got my 15 quid sitting at 28 the now, did have it up to 37 through the week. don't put any more money into it than that..

It's forex, same gist though, you can make money buying or selling. just look at a few time scales.

ie week to see general direction of market, day to see how the week is going, hour to see how the day is going, 5 minute to see how the last hour is going, 1 minute/5 seconds to see where to enter. Don't forget you analysis of the previous time scales, if you spend to much time in one you lose the overall sense.

I like using bollinger bands, i find them helpful.

It's addictive, and it is pure gambling.

Duckers - when did u buy into smt?  I m waiting to put new money in, had a terrfic run this last year but seen its come off its highs.

How are you doing Jo? Must admit I prefer to drink Bollinger to using it for timing!!

I don’t agree with the gambling comment. But it should be remembered that the purpose of Central Bank stealing has been (1) to misprice risk and (2) to create wealth effects. This is now coming to an end.

Caveat emptor

<div class="bbp-reply-author" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-image: initial; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: #eeeeee; display: flex; justify-content: flex-start; float: none; text-align: center; width: unset; color: #444444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border-color: initial initial #cccccc initial; border-style: initial initial dotted initial;">deserter
<div class="bbp-author-role" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent; display: flex; justify-content: flex-start; font-style: italic; float: none; width: unset; flex: 0 1 auto;">
<div class="" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Member</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bbp-reply-content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 4px 12px 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: #eeeeee; color: #444444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">
<p style="margin: 1rem 0px !important; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: unset; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent; line-height: 1.2em;">Genuine question as I’ve never bought a stock in my life</p>
<p style="margin: 1rem 0px !important; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: unset; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent; line-height: 1.2em;">Is there a good resource in fairly layman terms for understanding how it all works? Any good book recommendations?</p>

</div>

<div class="bbp-reply-content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 4px 12px 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: #eeeeee; color: #444444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">
<p style="margin: 1rem 0px !important; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: unset; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent; line-height: 1.2em;">I’m very curious but it feels like gambling unless I educate myself</p>

</div>
Have a look at The Naked Trader. Basically an intro to stock market trading book for dummies.

@thm

Aye, I'm doing no bad, getting by, nothing else for it, hope you are good.

Aye the bollinger bands tell lots of lies, but they seem to be ok for a general sense, prefer drawing lines on the charts tbh to sense direction and pinch points, bollinger just as an indicator to change and fluid support lines.

tbh I'm just playing around, over the years it's been an interest, spent a wee bit on it, not much, and lost it in the learning process, fully aware I would do(90-95% of people do), there's a cost to learning imo. Seem to be starting to get a hang of it now though, but we'll see, managing to make generally profitable trades now, so we'll see if I can take it anywhere. Did one double up, acid test to see if I can do 2 or 3, then i might get excited! 😆 fully expect to blow up the account though. But I find it interesting so I've dipped my toes in again.

What do you mean coming to an end, can you expand on that?

The key issue for me at the moment is that the ECBs asset purchase program (stealing) is going to come to an end. So what happens next ?!? When will rates go up, by how much and what is the natural rate?

Bond yields and yield curves are key.

The other key is that derivative activity is too big for underlying cash volumes - hence high risks of odd stock movements in cash equities.

Ah right, I tend to just ignore any external news or events or even opinions and just focus on the charts. I also think people are just full of nonsense on the forums and the like.

i've read wee bits and pieces about dow theory, i think it was, and his thoughts that all the info you'll ever need are already in the charts. So I'm really just purely chart focused and don't allow anything else to factor in my thoughts other than how I see things. I find if you rely on other people or events it just clouds things.

As i say, just a passing interest.

Thanks Mactheknife I will check it out

Those stressing about rising rates or claiming inflation will inevitably take off again should look at Japan since 1989.

That and the current rates on 10yr mortgages.  Low 2%s so the banks and building societies are betting on it not increasing in any meaningful way for the next decade or so.

Those would be the same banks and building societies who got it so right in 2008!Also,if you think timing the market is not risky,have a think about all those who bought Japanese shares in 1989.How they doing again?How are RBS shareholders doing?

More posts from Newbies chasing heat,definitely a contrarian indicator.The advice to buy bonds at these prices is also very dangerous.I wouldn't touch guilts with a barge pole .As for property funds,research what happened to those investors after Brexit.THEY WERE DENIED ACCESS TO THEIR OWN INVESTMENTS.Reits would be safer if you must go down this route.

@poolman - SMT is a recent purchase and why there's nothing in it at the moment, it had some stocks that should do well in the long term and its got a good track record which is why I bought it this time around.
Although who knows what's going to happen next? How far are things going to drop? Will it be calmer in the coming week now the sellers have sold and the holders have held?
If only I hadn't swapped that crystal ball for a purple ringle stem in the 90's 🙂

Ok cheers duckers - smt has a fine long term record, in fact i think its the oldest fund.  It semi corrected last year and i missed it, thought it would languish low 4s, so i waited and everyday it went up a few p.  Its on my watch list so i m holding back this time.  It really is a buy and forget share.

Not a usual source of info but interestin
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11489789/The-funds-that-have-returned-more-than-12pc-per-year-for-THIRTY-years.html

SMT is a very high risk share.Many of its components have never made a profit and have sky high P/E ratios.

Heads or tails, who knows.

Might keep going up, might be the start of the down.

If you're in it for the long term and well diversified it doesn't really matter.  Even if you'd have invested all your money the day before Lehman Brothers in 2008, and kept your nerve during crash afterwards, you'd still be quids in today.  If you'd been brave an invested whilst everyone else was panicking then you'd be very very happy.

S&P levels:

October 2007:  1565.15

March 2009: 676.53

January 2018:  2872.87

Today:  2762.13

If the thought of a market crash has you worried then your time-frame is too short, or your asset allocation is wrong.  I'm looking 25 years+ so I'm not bothered and will just keep plodding on and adding every month/quarter.  Once I get closer to retirement, however, then I'd make sure that I'm edging towards something like a 60/40 stocks/bonds allocation and re-balance accordingly.

Personally I do think this is the beginning of a downwards streak, but who knows. My last purchase was 100% bonds to give a bit of balance. Would love to hear Trump's excuse for a crash now he's married himself to the market gains.  I've got a feeling his narcissistic desire to take credit for the end of a bull market could come to bite him in the a***!

Personally I do think this is the beginning of a downwards streak,

I think without some sort of external trigger it'll be a minor blip at [s]worst[/s] best. No major skeletons emerging from any cupboards just yet...

Didn't Warren Buffet say 'there are two types of investor. Those who don't know where the market is going and those who don't know they don't know'?

I have personally called seven out of the last three crashes.

The market levels are like the weather its the long term you need to look at.

Saw this in the Sunday Times yesterday and though it relevant to the discussion about timing and the markets. Missing 1st sentence, but they commissioned some analysis of the FTSE based on there investor profiles....

[url= https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4770/40096047161_f75b0bdb16.jp g" target="_blank">https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4770/40096047161_f75b0bdb16.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/2469HTX ]Ian Cowie article Sunday Times[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/brf/ ]Ben Freeman[/url], on Flickr

And the rollercoaster continues.....!
It's the most excitement I've had on a Monday in months!! Loving the fear hating the loss!!

Loving the fear hating the loss!!

It'll recover, I'm down about 1.6% at the moment but that's the nature of it.

sell sell sell

dow going south by 1200 points scrub that 1500+ points
i miss strike though text 🙁

“
<div class="bbp-reply-author" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: #cccccc; outline: 0px; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; display: flex; justify-content: flex-start; float: none; text-align: center; width: unset; color: #444444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">footflaps
<div class="bbp-author-role" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; display: flex; justify-content: flex-start; font-style: italic; float: none; width: unset; flex: 0 1 auto; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
<div class="" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Subscriber</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bbp-reply-content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 4px 12px 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: #444444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">
<p style="padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: unset; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 1rem 0px !important;">Saw this in the Sunday Times yesterday and though it relevant to the discussion about timing and the markets. Missing 1st sentence, but they commissioned some analysis of the FTSE based on there investor profiles….”</p>

</div>
So this means my lake of knowledge to do anything with my SIPP sitting in Hargreaves Lansdowns wealth 150 means I’ll be richer tha y’all in 20 years?  Yaaass!

ER....No.

Goddamit.

Well i have £3k of cash in there, maybe time to invest that while its cheaper to do so.

I should have stuck to the plan, sold the latest investments and re-bought when it settled :'-(

S&P down almost 5%.... Ow.

So this means my lake of knowledge to do anything with my SIPP sitting in Hargreaves Lansdowns wealth 150 means I’ll be richer tha y’all in 20 years?  Yaaass!

Yikes, just looked up the HL Wealth 150, the charges are a bit hefty for what it is.  Yes, you'll be richer, but you'd be much more richer if you simply went for a "3 fund portfolio"....!

Well i have £3k of cash in there, maybe time to invest that while its cheaper to do so

Maybe, maybe not, who knows!  I'd probs go for gilts short term at the moment.  When to go equities again is the golden question.  The answer is normally when financial journalists are telling you to stay away from stocks at all costs - then it's a big BUY!!!  All guesswork really...

Guesswork or exhuberance?

its not guesswork to understand that bond markets have been deliberately mis-priced by Central Bankers globally with obvious knock on effects on other risk assets

CBers create bubbles and puncture them. Not their job to do that, but hey ho

So is it worth chucking £50 into an Oanda account right now and just leaving it there?

Well i have £3k of cash in there, maybe time to invest that while its cheaper to do so.

That depends how happy you are to take a risk, how much you need that £3k and how long you're happy to leave it in a stocks and hares isa for example.  Put £3k in today and it might be worth £60 less tomorrow, then the same the next day and so on. It will recover but you shouldn't invest money in the hope of a short term gain if you can't afford to lose it.

Gary M - its for my Pension (its a SIPP), so its got about 22 years to grow...

I was kidding about the Health 150, my future is actually held in a more balanced long term fund.  up 20% overall in the 4 years to date including recent activity.

Balanced as in rubbish me thinks.

Wall St is basically trying to blackmail the FED by crashing the stock market in the hope the FED will continue with a loose monetary policy.

For the past 10 years the FED has responded by releasing more QE, lowering rates etc, but if there is real inflation in the economy, they have run out of tools and the market is set for a major correction.

I don't know how to add an emoji in here but I think the smiling sh*t would be appropriate today, although he'd only be smiling if he was waiting to go all in at the bottom rather than just gone all in at the top...

Looks like its bouncing back, what to buy now?

A cat that the shopkeeper claims is merely resting ?

At this stage I will take that resting cat in exchange for my worthless stocks Mr shop keeper.