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So I've read all the newspapers, i understand the 3 sticking points and why they are important. But what i don't understand is what the deal is beyond that. Canada? Canada Plus? Norway? Do we know yet?
I've asked alot of people who work in the media/journalism, I work in TV and nobody seems to know the answer. It seems even those who are really meant to be the ones keeping track, are so utterly bored, tired and confused that they don't even know whats going on.
Have I just missed this in the stuff I've been reading, or are all the journos just bluffing because we don't know?
Not really interested in this turning into a pro/anti brexit debate (...if such thing exists at this point...what a lunatic mess)
World trade organisation tarifs
WTO is the no deal option is my understanding
End of Prosperity.
In a nutshell, we're screwed. They're just arguing about how deep, hard and long it will last
its going to be awesome
Our business has been told to get ready for Brexit. What we are getting ready for isn't made clear but I think it involves bracing ourselves and biting down on something.
Remember the Gary Glitter song Do you want to be in my gang?
Its kinda the opposite of that
HTH
Its quite impressive really
the brexiteers have managed to engineer a brexit that simultaneously undoes Thatchers remodeling of the UK into a service economy, whereby 80% of our GDP is generated from finance
and at the same time finishing off her destruction of working class communities by undermining manufacturing in the UK that she reshaped to be dependent on SM access & CU membership
These industries & the many 100s of 1000s of jobs lost, to be be replaced with either beheading & removing the intestines from Mackerel or filling out reams of customs form in quadruplicate
with the added bonus of making everything more expensive & offering less choice to consumers
The deal isn't Canada. It is being part of the single market but in return having to comply with a fair amount of the EU rules which ensure a "level playing field" (Canada is not subject to this to any such extent). I don't know which ones, but those rules involve state aids, environmental stuff, workers rights and so on. The things that had to be done way back in order to persuade the member states to open up their markets fully in the first place to create "the single market" as we know it. Not including services I think.
In addition there is wrangling about enforcement and dispute resolution. TBH, the obvious and most economical way to do this would be via the ECJ, but for equally obvious reasons that would be a non-runner so some other form of independent arbitration is being duscussed. Clearly, recently threatening to break an agreement you just entered into is a really good way of getting an easy ride from the other side on this kind of thing.
All these things involve sovereignty in the sense that a sovereign state has the power to do what the hell it wants and tell the rest of the world to **** off and in return be either ignored, subjected to sanctions or invaded. Some might say that in modern times that aspect of sovereignty is not practically exercisable anyway.
I don't think it is is it? It's just a trade deal. Something like Canada in its scope (UK made goods only) but with an element of free movement such that it's more efficient given the loose nature of how we as hoc ship stuff around.
WTO and kimbers post.
I thought that deal or no deal we were out of the single market and the customs union? The deal may give us more favourable trading terms but that isn't the same as being in the single market. Goods coming from or going to the continent are still going to be treated as imports and exports with all the additional documentation
Maybe track down one of the leave voters from the massive Brexit thread. They'll have a clear explanation - they knew exactly what they were voting for.
Well "no tariffs" are being mentioned, though that doesn't necessarily mean being part of the custome union.
I've been wondering what the fuss is all about to be honest. The 'deal' being negotiated is pretty thin unless it something radical is added. Good for Agri business and certain manufacturers but nothing like what we used to have in terms of what can move in and out of the EU without tariffs. It certainly won't include much in the bike world for example so don't expect to be able to keep buying those cheap bits off of German websites.
The gammon Brexiteers love their rose-tinted nostalgia so much that they want to recreate the 1940s.
Do you like powdered egg? And tuberculosis?
It’s always been irreconcilable Mexican stand off.
Despite what they wrote down that bus, the whole reason this lot wanted Brexit is so that they can be (somewhat improbably) free of EU rules that allow you access to the single market (freedom of movement/workers rights/food standards/corporate taxation/environmental controls)
The one thing the EU absolutely won’t budge on is allowing a non-member to be (somewhat improbably) free of EU rules that allow you access to the single market (freedom of movement/workers rights/food standards/corporate taxation/environmental controls)
Can you see the problem?
1) You are ****ed if you trade with Europe
2) The rest of the world knows this so will try to **** you
3) Borris and the clown team know this also but will try to hide the ****ed upness by announcing VE(e) day again and digging up Vera Lynne
4) You will be ****ed because no-one has actually got a feasible plan and any plan will take 3-6 months to implement, not the remaining 23 days less Xmas hollidays.
Exec Summary :You are ****ED!
Currently we appear to be risking everything over fishing rights when fishing contributes less than 1% of GDP, whereas we didn't even bat an eyelid loosing passporting for Financial Service (9% of GPP), nor freedom of movement for services when that's the biggest chunk of our economy.
None of it makes any economic sense, we'll all be worse off, the country will be worse off, the NHS will be worse off.
We now have the weakest passport in all of Europe, an Irish passport holder has more rights in the UK than a British passport holder does!
We seem to be willingly negotiating to give up all our rights in exchange for tariffs on goods and services to make us less competitive and poorer.
It's beyond insane. It almost makes Trump look like a stable genius (compared to Bojo / Gove).
My understanding its simply to allow tariff free trading in goods. In order to get this access to the market the UK has to accept that they must work to the same quality, environmental and workers rights standards.
If the deal does not go thru then tariffs are applied to goods under WTO rules
Note the deal now excludes services so financial services are effed and also stuff like design and so on - ie 80% of the UK economy is excluded.
But Johnson and co have never wanted a deal - that is clear from the way they keep on deliberately sabotaging it
Fishing is merely symbolic on the UK side
Its a much thinner deal than Norway for example who have complete access to the EU
To summarise:
We are utterly and completely *ed!
Unless you’re a hedge fund manager, a currency speculator, an asset stripper or a venture capitalist.
In which case, come January 1st; ker-*ing-ching
Fishing is merely symbolic on the UK side
It's not just symbolic - it's something the public think they understand. They can see fish. They can see fishing boats. They've seen Hugh Fearnley Wittingstall explain the craziness of the Common Fisheries Policy and it represents "everything" that's wrong with the EU. I've never met anyone in "real life" who's expressed an opinion or interest in financial passporting, and I doubt more that a small fraction of the population can even explain it.
It's the sort of negotiation where both parties have to pretend to be tough guys, prepared to walk away (even though they're not) right up to the end. Then we can all be friends again.
Fishing is important because the French fishermen will blockade all the ports and the farmers will fill the entrance to the tunnel with burning manure unless they get what they want. It's what the French do and they're very good at it.
it’s something the public think they understand. They can see fish
'Think' is the operative word; a small fraction of the UK population truly understand the
UK - EU trade in fish and are able to describe it.
In that sense, not massively different to financial passporting.
People don't understand because they don't want to and don't see any need to.
Sad - but true.
It’s the sort of negotiation where both parties have to pretend to be tough guys, prepared to walk away (even though they’re not) right up to the end.
the UK side have done this ( tho its clear that actually they do not want a deal). the EU side has not in any way. they have been consistent, patient and polite despite gross provocation all the way thru
On the UK side the whole thing has been a sham
We now have the weakest passport in all of Europe, an Irish passport holder has more rights in the UK than a British passport holder does!
But they're a lovely new shade of blue/black!
Its a much thinner deal than Norway for example who have complete access to the EU
And Norway paid more per capita for this non-voting access than the UK did as a full member...
Fishing sums up the ridiculous double-think of the whole deal.
We want control of our fishing waters and are prepared for a no-deal if we can’t do it.
80% of the fish we catch is exported to the EU. Without a deal Tariffs make that uneconomic.
I like the fact that if a fish swims towards the UK coast it immediately BRITISH but if a person does the same they are sent back to Johnny-foreigner land as unwanted.
The deal is basically - At the moment you are free to travel around Europe, buy, sell, enjoy the same standards and safety measures. We are now arguing about how to stop this.
This gives an example of how taking back control works.
It will be the current level of bureaucracy, but with a further level of special bureaucracy on top.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/export-fish-to-the-eu-from-1-january-2021
Britain has already left the EU, but will not crawl out from under the bureaucracy.
Something like Canada in its scope
No. Don't listen to Gove and co... we are not asking for a deal with the same scope as Canada at all.
I think it's easy to overstate the importance of the fish to the UK. We have very few tools at our disposal to gain leverage with the EU, they just don't need us like we do them, but the thought of fishermen blockading french ports is a strong motivator for the EU side, so we're keeping fish at the top of the agenda.
I have no doubt at the 11th hour and 59th minute we'd give away the fishing to clinch a deal if that was needed.
A Norway deal would be a super fit for Britain. Just comparing the two countries show how closely aligned they are:
UK: Population: 66 million
Norway: Population: 5 million.
UK: The “mainland” is an island. Has a significant economic & political entity on a removed land mass (Northern Ireland) that shares a border with the Irish Republic. Has several populated overseas dependencies. Part of a signifiant “commonwealth” of nations.
Norway: Is not an island. Shares a land border with Sweden, Finland and Russia. Overseas: Svalbard and some penguins.
UK: Four major devolved governing assemblies with significant amounts of franchised voters keen for independence.
Norway: Split from Sweden in 1905.
UK: Largely dependant on a service sector that can up sticks and move – doesn’t actually “make” much from scratch.
Norway: Digs most of its wealth out of the ground (mebe 55%?) so if you need it you probably need to get it from Norway. Like Britain. Which buys hydrocarbons from Norway.
UK: Permanent member of big boys international big hitters “bomb and run away” Security Council. Therefore has to have nukes and big guns and boats with big guns. Member of NATO.
Norway: Member of NATO.
UK: Owes the world about $1.5 trillion dollars.
Norway: Got about $1 trillion dollars in the world piggy bank.
So clearly a Norway type deal would be ace because in most major respects we are exactly **** all like Norway.
No. Don’t listen to Gove and co… we are not asking for a deal with the same scope as Canada at all.
So what are we asking for?
Unicorns. Preferably shiny ones.
Access to the single market, but don’t want align with the rules.
All of the benefits, but not pay the fees.
We refuse to allow EU to tell us we are breaking the rules of entry to the single market.
So you can see, it’s just the EU being intransigent, nothing to do with our incompatible wants & needs.
Fishing is important because the French fishermen will blockade all the ports and the farmers will fill the entrance to the tunnel with burning manure unless they get what they want. It’s what the French do and they’re very good at it.
I don't recall French fishermen being given a vote in the Brexit referendum. What they do is protect their interests. What British fishermen have done is shit in their own pants.
Well yeah unicorns are more likely than that... but thats why surely what we're negotiating is a regular old free trade agreement, dressed up as a something far more exiting and useful? We cant be both in and out of the single market as that would make it a dual market, so we're outside selling our British stuff like pork scratchings and Mclarens back in tariff free? Non? Sounds like Canada to me.
Sounds like Canada to me.
Well, it's not, for the reasons set out here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45633592
in brief, quotas, tariffs, border checks.
The reality is that most businesses of any size will continue to design, manufacture, build, grow, mine and operate under regulations that will closely mirror EU regulations. There will be pressure from most industries for British Standards to adopt future EU regulations. This being the case we should be able to carry on in much the same way as before, just with lots of extra paperwork and costs for those trading with EU countries. Plus making us a less desirable place to invest in or operate from.
What the EU will be concerned about is that as a country we will look to weight the dice. Similar to how we have fast tracked the Covid vaccination approval. Allowing new GM crops or some new pesticide and being able to relatively easily access the EU market. Potentially we could follow China's example and subsidise steel production. I'm sure that Boris has plenty of friends with get rich quick schemes.
So, the EU want to tie us down to a "level playing field". Alternatively, we could accept lots of tariffs that prevent manipulation of key markets such as agriculture an steel. Crippling these industries and preventing anybody making a quick buck.
So what are we asking for?
As I understand it,
We're a corner shop going to Tesco and asking for a huge discount on purchases so that we can then sell their produce cheaper than Tesco itself does. Tesco is, shockingly, going "WhyTF would we do that so you can undercut us, do you think we're daft?" and we're now screaming that it's all their fault for being intransigent and obstructive.
Is that about right?
None of it makes any
economicsense, we’ll all be worse off, the country will be worse off, the NHS will be worse off.
corrected typo
Back in 2014 after years of demonising left feet we had a referendum on whether to all collectively remove our left feet. There were lots of contentious lies, like "We spend £350million a week on left shoes, lets give it to the NHS instead"
So the vote on whether left feet were to "leave" or "remain" was narrowly won by leave.
After some bitter fighting for the best part of three years about whether this was a sensible idea we decided that we are going ahead with it.
Now we are trying to work out the best way to remove the feet.
Options proposed range from being removed by a surgeon, a good blow from a sharp axe, or being knawed off by a ferret.
Trouble is the surgeon looks a bit foreign, we'd need to buy the axe from the Germans, but the ferret is British.
So obviously we are going with the ferret.
Sounds like Canada to me.
Well, it’s not, for the reasons set out here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45633592
in brief, quotas, tariffs, border checks.
Aye but the reality of whats being negotiated has likely got quotas, certainly got tariffs on non UK originated products, and 100% has border checks, even if they moved the border to a car park in Kent.
Apparently Games Workshop (the nerdy warhammer modeling/tabletop game) is worth more than the entire UK fishing industry.
Also:
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1336174203612106753
Potentially we could follow China’s example and subsidise steel production
What do you think the EU might do in response?
None of it makes any economic sense, we’ll all be worse off, the country will be worse off, the NHS will be worse off.
While it doesn't make economic sense to a vast number of people, it makes sense to some. So what if the economy contracts, it will recover, but probably not to the levels we have seen, this will affect the general population, but this isn't about them.
The people who want to leave without a deal have most to gain by being free of EU rules and regulations, this is why the focus on sovereignty has appeared, its all they've got left. If the economy nose dives as a result, if the population suffers as a result, they don't care because its not their part of the economy that will suffer the hardest.
Please don't think that the economy is some homogeneous entity, it isn't, there are going to be winners in this, at the expense of others...
Also when the now PM said '**** business' people should have really taken that seriously...when some shows you who they really are, believe them.
That's right. Trading on WTO terms, also jokingly known as the Afghan Option, means no deal. The U.K. will become a third country with no preferential access rights.
But we will be free to make our own rules and laws which will be so much better, such as....mmm. ugh...???
Also when the now PM said ‘**** business’ people should have really taken that seriously…when some shows you who they really are, believe them.
They're probably the only honest words that have left his lips since the beginning of the referendum campaign, or possibly ever.
And that's two more than the oily little shit, Michael Gove ever managed
Every business in this country could go under and he and his dodgy mates would find a way to profit massively from it. They couldn't give a toss about Britsh business or the British People. No self-proclaimed nationalists ever give a shit about the nations they claim to lionise
It goes like this.
.
I found it interesting to compare the UK with Norway (free of the EU) here: https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom
I didn't really appreciate how good we have it, although that pretty much only leaves one way to go...