[Closed] So what's going to happen to all the Transporters in 9 years time?

the ev replacement (id buzz) is out next year
prices will probably stay broadly similar for a similarly aged van
no

If what happened to the OG Defender when it was canned is anything to go by they'll suddenly become to Chelsea tractor of choice.

Whats happening in 9 years time?

A 9+ yearold van (with the requisit MTB/surf/camping conversion will still be worth something.
depending on the improvemnts or lack of in batteries and speed of charging, they might be useful/desired for long distance travel.

I wonder what the price of diesel will be in 2030?

They already are the Chelsea tractor of choice...

Whats happening in 9 years time?

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

Who knows what position will be in 9 years. If the electric infrastructure has not improved enough (i.e. good charging for people without driveways) then many people will be holding onto their petrol/diesel cars and the prices could increase due to no new supply.

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

The end of [i]new[/i] petrol/diesel vehicle sales.

There will be more of these type of vehicles, with better range and batteries etc. Or possibly hydrogen will take off, at least for commercial vehicles.

Hydrogen makes more sense for big vehicles and while we seem to be slowly getting there on ev charging, there's no Hydrogen plans so far?

I have just taken delivery of an E-Expert

https://www.parkers.co.uk/vans-pickups/peugeot/expert/2020-e-expert-review/

170-200 miles range, 200mph+ charging speed, quite a bit smaller than our previous LWB Vivaro, but still fits bikes and everything we need for work no problem. We don't have off street parking but we do have a few slow long stay chargers within a short walk of the house (closer than I often used to have to park living in Edinburgh).

I think it will work out good. Ask me again after our trip to Torridon in September.

the ev replacement (id buzz) is out next year

Isn't the ID Buzz going to be Sharan / Touran size? So not really a Transporter replacement..

Although, that being said, maybe the electric gubbins will allow a layout approaching the interior size..?

The end of petrol/diesel vehicle sales

This does mean that the multitude of petrol and diesel cars currently (and in 9 years time) will not all be crushed the next day?

If anything I can see a niche market emerging for folk hanging onto them as long as they can. Many of us still will want to lug bikes / boats / families / camping gear around long distances, and electric won't like that.

They have an eTransporter too as well as the ID-buzz - https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/electric-vans/abt-etransporter-6-1.html

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

pigyn

The big hotel/etate in Torridon has a charging point you’ll be fine.

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

By only squeezing in 82 miles of range..?

They have an eTransporter too as well as the ID-buzz – https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/electric-vans/abt-etransporter-6-1.html

quite neat work with the battery to ensure no loss of space.

And a spectacular range of 82 miles...

I'm planning on keeping my 4yr old Transit Custom for at least the next 9 years, so I'm hoping things sort themselves out by the time we're replacing it. ID Buzz looks to be too small for our needs.

Hopefully there will be a big decrease in fly campers once the petrol and diesel vans are so old that they get scrapped. Will we then see e.vans being charged overnight beside Loch Etive by a generator packed I the back of the van?

The cost of an EV is much higher than the existing petrol / diesel equivalent.
The EV infrastructure will slightly improve, but not enough.
If you have on street parking you will not be much better off than you are now.
Range will not improve by much at all.

You only have to look at the past to predict the points above are the most likely future outcome for the next few years.

There will be a large number of people who cannot charge at home, or the range wont meet their needs or who just cant afford an EV. Given this I suspect the value of well looked after petrol / diesel vehicles will stay steady or in some cases rise. Anything deemed desirable will rise.

Scrapping a working vehicle to change it for an EV seems a tragic waste of resources.

Will we then see e.vans being charged overnight beside Loch Etive by a generator packed I the back of towed by the van?

🙂

The cost of an EV is much higher than the existing petrol / diesel equivalent.

it is higher, but coming down all the time. The id.3 is only about 10-15% more expensive than the golf equivilent, which (due to the cost of fueling) evens out pretty quickly. TCO of electric cars is already much lower than a petrol car.

Isn’t the ID Buzz going to be Sharan / Touran size?

its not clear. the concept was over 5m long which (considering the cab-forwards nature of a skateboard designed electric van) will have the loadspace of an xlwb van today..

I have just taken delivery of an E-Expert

170-200 miles range, 200mph+ charging speed...

😲😲😲

There will be a large number of people who cannot charge at home

This is why I've not got an EV. I absolutely need to fill up with Diesel at home from the refinery on my driveway. You just can't rely on those forecourts to be open in remote places, and when they are they often have those big yellow tags on the pumps saying out of order, I've seen them.

And I refuse to break up my journeys into sensibly sized chunks. It's my flying spaghetti monster given right to be able to drive for 12 hours straight on a 600 mile tank of diesel and a stadium buddy strapped to my leg. And then die in my sleep with my family arround me. Not having to stop for 15 minutes to refuel it every 2 hours whilst I empty my bladder, my Holliday time is just too important for that.

refuse to break up my journeys into sensibly sized chunks.

82 miles is not a sensible chunk.

All depends on what goes on with high level Gov policy. If they do nothing on fuel tax/subsidy then its hard to see people not wanting to stick with there a petrol / diesel car. If they raise the taxes on petrol / diesel and start to subsidise electricity then the dynamic changes.

There is no signs of movement just yet, we have just bought a new diesel car as it works out cheaper then electric. We are about to change the boiler and the green options for heating all come out more expensive.

it is higher, but coming down all the time. The id.3 is only about 10-15% more expensive than the golf equivilent,

thats becasue it is subsidised by it's golf equivelant - that wont carry on and this is the arguemnt about social mobility inequality.. Plus. Transporters will be fine as they fall outside of the pass-car sector (or will) so will ahve a stay of execution.

I might also add, 2020 was a bumper year for caravans, Europe qutie likes them, and they need towing! Towing with elecy is not good, as it reduces range by ALOT, and infrastructure wont be there to cope with the summer migrations..

+ what's been said, there will still be 35m+ ICE vehciles on the road in 9 years time, i'm going to hazard in 25-30 years time so fuel wont be an issue. Where there is demand, there is supply!

The problem is there's nothing to replace medium sized vans - the battery packs are heavy which will eat into load capacity. Big trucks can probably be electrified with overhead pylons on motorways.

Can't see hydrogen being a sensible option, really hard to store (hydrogen atoms are tiny so leak through most materials) and the storage density is crap.

The issue will be petrol stations becoming less viable with less non-electric cars on the road. It's not like they're going to stay around to service an ever diminishing market - there will be a period of gradual erosion of profit and then poof, they'll be gone one after each other. If your local one isn't on a big road and services HGVs then I'd expect it to be gone five years after petrol cars are stopped being sold. That'll then cause a positive feedback loop - pain to get (expensive) fuel, so people get rid of the petrol cars, meaning more petrol stations go, etc etc. To mis quote hemmingway - it'll be gradually then all at once.

This is all assuming the 2030 date won't get pushed back, which it will be.

This is why I’ve not got an EV. I absolutely need to fill up with Diesel at home from the refinery on my driveway. You just can’t rely on those forecourts to be open in remote places, and when they are they often have those big yellow tags on the pumps saying out of order, I’ve seen them.

Not really the same though is it but it may be very different in 9 years time. There may be 1,000s of charging stations dotted around at regular intervals and they may charge a car to a 100 mile range within 2 minutes (all cars able to do this, not just the fancy expensive ones)

That is very different than the current situation.

Well I drove my 36 year old Transporter to work today, so..??

vdubber67
Free Member
Well I drove my 36 year old Transporter to work today, so..??

and thats the crux of the arguments - the average fleet life is not 10-12 years, and it will get older if consumers are pushed to accept technologies that are not workable. Keeping an old vehicle going is good, touhgh 36 years maybe pushing it from an environmental perspective -there's a balance somewhere and will be laregly down to what you burn it in!

Living in a city, already seeing transporter and other diesel van owners sweating about the imminent introduction of pollution charging. So I think we'll see a stark urban-rural
and petrol-diesel divide in vehicle choice.

The range needs to get sorted...I'm all for EV but a van with a range of 82 miles? Surely the only people buying that are the ones who love a new badge and reckon this will do any credibility they had the world of good.

82 miles doesn't get me anywhere and I'd spend more time recharging the vehicle than I would driving it...

Things need to be vastly improved quickly (o encourage more uptake), more of them need to be on offer (to drive price down), but I'm also aware of how bad they are for the environment so battery recycling and reclaiming needs to be stepped up as well.

Or we all need to consider why we use a vehicle in the first place and see if we can actually survive without one - much harder to do once you have one, but I suspect there must be at least a 10% reduction in usage for the majority of folk...surely?

82 miles is not a sensible chunk

Depends on how much of a rush you're in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way. Ditto the Lakes and M74 services. It's not a massive issue, and probably pretty good in terms of road safety.

It will improve though, obviously.

Not really the same though is it but it may be very different in 9 years time. There may be 1,000s of charging stations dotted around at regular intervals and they may charge a car to a 100 mile range within 2 minutes (all cars able to do this, not just the fancy expensive ones)

That is very different than the current situation.

It's not really different though is it?

And that completely ignores the fact that if you are on the west coast of Wales/Scotland, then you can just plug it in overnight at your B&B (unless living the van life dream living in a layby, shitting in hedges).

Depends on how much of a rush you’re in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way.

Stopping once sounds pleasant, having to stop twice on a trip of that length begins to sound like a pain in the balls

mashr
Free Member
Depends on how much of a rush you’re in. I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way.

Stopping once sounds pleasant, having to stop twice on a trip of that length begins to sound like a pain in the balls

just to put this into context - some acquaintances of mine who were doing a Golfing trip to Scotland recently took 3-4 hours more to get home on empty roads than their colleagues did due to stops.

Talking to an engineer from Cummins who is in my cycle club , he said they are working on a new generation of diesel engines for commercial use . They are also developing the electric side.

It’s not really different though is it?

Yes, it is very different.

I fill my car up with petrol which takes 5 minutes and it covers about 350 miles before I have to fill it again.
There are 5 petrol stations just on my way to work.
For the equivalent EV car (small, cheap) I would need to 'fill' it up every 100 miles and spend hours doing so (plus any time spent finding an empty charge point)

As I said, in 9 years time it will look very different I would hope (a lot more charging stations, much quicker charging on all cars etc,.) but currently it is not equivalent at all.
That doesn't actually matter though as the deadline was put in place to give everything 10 years to get to the point it needs to be.

Do they have the same map with working charge points ? And all those that are quick charge ? And all those that are open to everyone and all those that are 24/7 . For example Google maps shows my closest charge point as 3 miles. Great- bar two things. It's 14 miles by road as it's on the other side of the river. And 2 it's for residents of the hotel only. I bet it's included on that map.

Another example is the one on the front of the cafe we use for coffeestops which is attached to someone's residence and is for use of the patrons of the cafe....... They have had desperate people knocking them up at midnight to use the charger......-and I know that one's been added to maps by some welldoer .....

Surely the only people buying that are the ones who love a new badge and reckon this will do any credibility they had the world of good.

or, you know, people who are buying a van for work, and work less than 40 miles from their house. Like every single plumber and sparkie..

its not a good solution for a 'lifestyle van'. Its perfect for a builder in london.

thats becasue it is subsidised by it’s golf equivelant – that wont carry on and this is the arguemnt about social mobility inequality..

the id3 is ~£6k more than the equivilent golf (without grant). fuel for 10k a year is £1500. Electricity for the same distance would be under £500. ROI is 6 years even if you assume the id3 is worth no more used. VW have a tool for this here https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/electric/should-you-go-electric/cost-savings/cost-of-running-your-car#/car/compare

Isn't the proposed ban on petrol/diesel sales only for cars?

Stopping once sounds pleasant, having to stop twice on a trip of that length begins to sound like a pain in the balls

Tbh, I only do that trip a few times a year, so it's not that onerous, and -

It will improve though, obviously.

the id3 is ~£6k more than the equivilent golf (without grant)

im not talking about the gran, that's a national gov thing, im talking about subsidising within the OEM's - they all do it at the moment - in know becuase i have very close working relationships with them all. there are very few models that actually make money for the companies, most are loosing money still, but they have to put them out there so that they can still sell the other cars or face bigger fines.

Many of us still will want to lug bikes / boats / families / camping gear around long distances, and electric won’t like that.

perhaps this sort of thing will need to stop. i’m not trolling, i do look about and wonder what things will be like for people who enjoy this sort of thing.

Why are you all arguing over the 82 mile range Transporter, which is to be honest a crap stop gap like brands shoe horning 27.5 into modified 26 to fill a gap quick, when I literally posted a link to a real 200 mile range, mid/LWB sized van, that exists and can be bought, and will do 0-80% charge in 50 mins while you have a piss/walk/pump track?

The rapid charger at the Torridon is broken just now so it's slow only, fine if you are staying over night but at £500 per night for the remaining room I gave it a swerve 🤣

Postie van - generally 10-12 miles per shift in urban areas.

perhaps this sort of thing will need to stop. i’m not trolling, i do look about and wonder what things will be like for people who enjoy this sort of thing.

people will give up on life..

though seriously - i mentioned earlier there is a huge touring community in Europe, that wont stop as life becomes more stressfull.

I was at a conference today and someone (quite famous i might add) tried to liken the smoking ban to what we could do with ICE - it's worlds apart in it's comparison and it will come up against more resistance than you might think. At this point, solutions will be found - we may just not know what they are yet!

someone (quite famous i might add)

Was it jeremy clarkson?

Will we then see e.vans being charged overnight beside Loch Etive by a generator packed I the back of towed by the van?

That there tellybox Long Way Up series set the bar on this.

I’ve been looking at EV’s to potentially replace our works shuttle van. Trying to find one with a long enough wheelbase, decent load and weight capacity with adequate mileage from a single charge has been tricky. The Maxus eDeliver9 appears to be the only viable vehicle at the moment. Even then we’d have to send the drivers on a course to allow them to drive it. This is due to the weight of it. If we wanted a van that was slightly smaller or lots bigger there’s loads of choice.

I’d love to change to EV for personal use considering the mileage we do. Not going to happen though as even the most basic model car is very expensive. I’ll be keeping my £1k Zafira until it disintegrates

And that completely ignores the fact that if you are on the west coast of Wales/Scotland, then you can just plug it in overnight at your B&B (unless living the van life dream living in a layby, shitting in hedges).

Our holiday cottage in Sheildaig last week had parking 100m up the road.

The Torridon charger is broken, and even if it was working, there are dozens, shortly to be hundreds of vehicles needing it.

And you best speak to a friend working on the 'how the hell do we get the grid to be big enough capacity for all the forthcoming German whips that need 2miiiilon megawatts per second each to charge.

I can imagine that the residents of Torridon and Sheildaig don't really want charging point littering every possible space and parking area. Most chargers seem to be designed to stand out somewhat, not blend into a rural viewpoint.

Yes these problems can be overcome, but by heck there is a lot of work to do in the next decade.

And I am still not sold on electric being the long term answer...

I can imagine that the residents of Torridon and Sheildaig don’t really want charging point littering every possible space and parking area. Most chargers seem to be designed to stand out somewhat, not blend into a rural viewpoint.

The one charger showing in killin was busy for the 5 days I was there. Same car was parked plugged in every time I went past.

Convienant if you were passing through and glanced at your map of charge points....

Conversely I think the electric.car is the way forward for the daily grind for those that need to. Moves the emissions out of the cities.....but I'm also in favour of pedestrianisation and green spaces in cities....... So I'll never get to be in charge of that.

The one charger showing in killin was busy for the 5 days I was there. Same car was parked plugged in every time I went past.

I think I know the resident who owns that car, want me to ask him to budge?

How many petrol stations are there in Torridon and Shieldaig, and if there are any do they blend into the rural landscape?

How many petrol stations are there in Torridon and Shieldaig, and if there are any do they blend into the rural landscape?

That's the point...none because there doesn't need to be....but if your petrol car only did 82 miles 30% of its range would be used just getting fuel from the nearest station.

Fine if you have off street parking near your house for your charge point.

Hydrogen makes more sense for big vehicles and while we seem to be slowly getting there on ev charging, there’s no Hydrogen plans so far?

That requires people to except that electric is not a drop in solution and has some immutable issues for larger vehicles. It's almost as if you need different tools / solutions for different jobs.

its not a good solution for a ‘lifestyle van’. Its perfect for a builder in london.

Agreed, but that is a small area where that works, I know plenty of traders who do more than that to get to their work site or between sites each day, so absolutely no use for them.

I like the idea of ev, but as I've said, environmentally, they are terrible due to manufacturing requirements. They don't work for me as the charging times add inconvenience and hassle to my journeys - not all, but plenty. I'd much prefer not travelling as I'm sitting doing nothing but the driving so then having to break journeys to charge as well? I can't see anyone expecting that to come out my working hours but will be my personal hours.

Things will improve but needs to improve very quickly.

"I live 170 miles from Aviemore, and always stop in Perth for a break, which is about half way. Ditto the Lakes and M74 services"
I live in the FoD and I only stop once on the way to Aviemore. Just long enough for a slash and me and the missus to swap places.
I'll go electric the day I have absolutely no choice or the mileage is enough for the above trip and some spare if I can't find a charger that takes no long than the above slash to top me up.

I've seriously thought about an EV, but we have a caravan in North Wales - often take two cars as me/wife work and I may go back, or she may stay - my car is the bike carrier. EV charge points are more or less non existant, and using the microwave and a kettle at the same time will trip the electric at our caravan, certainly won't charge a car. And this is near Prestatyn, not in Snowdonia.

I think @LAT has it - we've become accustomed to the convenience of just jumping in our personal motorised transport and driving wherever - whether that be the local shops or the other end of the country. Instead of focussing on increasing range of electric vehicles, increasing charging speeds, increasing the number and availability of chargers so we can continue living in the way we've all got used to living, perhaps we should start to consider if continuing to live the way we've all got used to living is really achievable. Appreciate that this may not be palatable to many, change is never easy but perhaps we need to start making some serious grown-up decisions about our lifestyles.

I'm going to suggest that in terms of adoption priorities environmentally, people with occasional-use vans and rural vehicles are pretty low down the list.

Surely one of the big aims of EVs is air quality in urban areas and existing AQMAs. Some of those areas are genuinely worrying for health risks. Those are the places where a high percentage of people in EVs would be best. Coincidentally it's also where the chargers are, So is that the worst thing?

Clinging on the Transporter VanLife would only become a significant issue if people were buying vans as fashion vehicles in urban areas, and hey, maybe fashions will change. EVs do seem to be looking like the "new tech" for the fashion conscious.

And I am still not sold on electric being the long term answer…

That answer is to not use cars, or use cars for say 10% of the amount people do today.

I don't know where the figure of 80 odd miles is coming from but our ev fleet of fully laden vans is mid 30 for the duel fuel vans before they go to combustion. Add in that's summer time usage

Talking to an engineer from Cummins who is in my cycle club , he said they are working on a new generation of diesel engines for commercial use . They are also developing the electric side.

And also...

https://cpnonline.co.uk/news/cummins-begins-testing-of-hydrogen-fueled-internal-combustion-engine/

How many of you grumblers are aware of the massive investment in infrastructure and R&D that is currently being poured into EVs? It's happening and it'll NEED to work by 2030. And I think it will, because that's the date everyone's now working to.

we need to start making some serious grown-up decisions about our lifestyles.

Good luck with that.

How many of you grumblers are aware of the massive investment in infrastructure and R&D that is currently being poured into EVs? It’s happening and it’ll NEED to work by 2030. And I think it will, because that’s the date everyone’s now working to.

Agree, it will be okay by 2030 - my point is that today is very different than it will be so not something I am worried about. But unfortunately that is 30 years too late to actually be part of any contribution towards reducing climate change. And the lorries have until 2040, no rush, not like it is important is it. Combine that with continued oil, gas and coal usage and worrying about how cars are powered in 10-20 years time is definitely in the rearranging the deck chairs category.

I live in the FoD and I only stop once on the way to Aviemore. Just long enough for a slash and me and the missus to swap places.

Would seem to be the problem.

People are going to have to change how they live, and one of those things will be not owning a massive van to put gear in and driving it hundreds of miles twice a year when you could own a smaller vehicle and use a roof rack for the rare occasion you need to haul gear (rare being once a week). And if you have to stop for an hour extra on a several hour journey, so be it.

Unfortunately, sorting out the climate crisis is going to take compromises and individuals don’t seem willing to do that and the government is unwilling to push them onto businesses. I’m happy to compromise by replacing my car (when it’s totally dead, not just because I fancy a new one) with an electric one and sucking up the compromises of finding a rural charger or stopping for a bit. Or, even better, taking the train to where I’m going which is what we do now for our holidays where we can, despite the extra cost. It seems mad to me that someone is complaining about the traffic from Derby to Cornwall in another thread when a train will get them practically door to door in half the time.

People are going to have to realise that the compromise of having an electric car or using alternative transport (and not carting shit around in a massive vehicle) is far less of a pain than the compromise of living with a climate crisis that goes unchecked.

100% MB.

it's *almost* as if there's a massive, global crisis that we urgently need to take action on - significantly changing habits that many of us have taken for granted.

realistically, we've already locked-in 2°C warming, which will be bad, but survivable. We absolutely have to avoid 3 or even 4°C (which we're currently on course for), which will be staggeringly catastrophic.

it cannot be underplayed just how bad 4°C warming will be. There's no sugar coating this. we have to do something, significant, now.

Why is no-one talking about hydrogen fuelled vehicles, which seem to be a great combination of convenience and environmental credentials? Surely thwy are the future?

They are and will be important part of the mix. Different tools for different jobs but there is a religious like love of electric vehicles (which are excellent solutions for some problems but rubbish for others) for some reason from people (including many politicians) seem to be in denial.

just to put this into context – some acquaintances of mine who were doing a Golfing trip to Scotland recently took 3-4 hours more to get home on empty roads than their colleagues did due to stops.

Just for another perspective. It took me 2 hours longer to get the west coast of Scotland then it normally does. 1.5 hours of that was due to a diversion, traffic and Burger King taking 30 minutes to serve me. Actual charging was an hour, only adding 30 minutes more than usual. That was a 270 mile journey.

Hydrogen is more wasteful to produce and more difficult to store. The way battery tech is evolving it will be pointless for cars, but may see some use in large vehicles.

The drive to electric has an advantage not mentioned here.. a drive towards energy independence, especially from the middle East. I suspect this is behind more government moves than the environmental aims

Why is no-one talking about hydrogen fuelled vehicles

Because making, storing and transporting hydrogen isn't easy.

Its production uses lots of energy.

It's not easy to store nor transport. Highly flammable, more so than petrol. It causes the metals in which it is stored or transported to fail.

People need to get out of their cars, onto bikes or into buses.

Lorries carry goods to supermarkets. Trades people can't transport their tools or wares with public transport. Their vans might be more polluting, but there are far fewer on the roads than there are single occupancy commuters or school run mums.

I ride to work most days and 90% of the time quicker over a 12 km commute than the times I need to take the van.

a drive towards energy independence

If it were we would be doing alot more about the generation side than upping the consumption massively.

Hydrogen production is a mature technology, it's not exactly hard either. Yes it's energy intensive but isn't that what all the excess renewables we keep hearing about would be perfect for?

If it were we would be doing alot more about the generation side than upping the consumption massively.

Quite.

My average commute is around 30 miles each way with mostly on street parking. Which isn’t high for an ev but the second I add all my tools and materials I’m pushing a tonne payload. There isn’t much in the way of ev’s that would work for me. Add in around 40% of the jobs I’m on are remote old buildings often running off generators for power. Sort of rules out an ev for me currently. Even if they did work though I couldn’t afford one! I can’t afford a new ice van let alone electric.
Most people on-site I speak to are planning to triple their prices the minute they have to deal with ev’s. I know one electrician with an ev. He doesn’t take work on more than 5 miles from his house 😂

Add in around 40% of the jobs I’m on are remote old buildings often running off generators for power.

Probably not uk relevent but that's one of the selling points of the new f150 lightning, the onboard batteries can be used as a power source for anything and have plenty of juice for a days labour plus getting you home again. They also recon it can power an average house for 3 (average usage) to 10 (low usage) days meaning remote cabins etc suddenly get more livable