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(have we done this already?)
Well done Tories (and all the chumps that voted for them)!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717
Had not noticed the first dip going. It just seems like we are looking into a deeper hole, hope we don't go in it.
Lionhert - the numbers for growth don't lie. We came out of recession under labour - we appear to be heading back into it under the tories. Teh much predicted double dip from too savage cuts to quickly contracting the economy.
It never un-dipped for me, hence one more small business in the bin and one more mature student back at uni.
its quite impressive how osborne and cameron have kept their faces out of the news lately and letting cable and clegg absorb all the muck
not sure if the lib dems arent being well and truly rogered by the coalition
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hth x
Surely it started the minute that the new Government came in to power. Simply a matter of the lag between action (cutting everything) and reaction (loads more people added to the unemployed roster, everyone terrified of spending money. If they have any).
Double dipping is simply social death at parties, you wouldn't catch me doing it.
Depressing reading no matter who's to blame.
The number of economists on here is amazing, considering it's come as a suprise to them [the real ones] it would suggest that the original plans were fine. As per that document, taking the cold weather snap out would have seen "flattish" activity, which is pretty much as you'd expect at this point.
Economies can't grow endlessly, unless you want to build everything on an unstable platform of false wealth and lending. Oh wait, that's what everyone wants...
It's only paper money kids
coffeeking - it has not come as a surprise at all. Reputable economist were predicting it. The only surprise is that anyone is surprised.
It's just the weather sillies. When it's sunny and thousands of public sector workers are filling all their new found leisure time with leisure activities we'll be fine again.
Clearly none of you are thinking about how much money you'd spend if you were permanently on holiday!
Blaming the weather. 🙄
LOLcarpetz.
"the wrong kind of leaves..." anyone?
nothing to do with quantitative easing then?
nothing to do with an previously overspending government then?
good job we still have our gold reserves and didn't sell them off at the bottom of the market...
I could live a pretty good life if I let my credit card rack up as well...
Quantative easing as done under labour and as still being done in many economies pulled us back out of recession - we are not in a double dip yet - but these results make it look much more likely. Cutting spending, talking down the economy and destroying consumer and business confidence reduces growth.
Umm...the recession is not the fault of an overspending government. Rupert would be delighted to hear you saying that though.
nothing to do with an previously overspending government then?
How would overspending cause a recession?
The number of economists on here is amazing, considering it's come as a suprise to them [the real ones] it would suggest that the original plans were fine. As per that document, taking the cold weather snap out would have seen "flattish" activity, which is pretty much as you'd expect at this point.
Um lots of economists were predicting that such drastic cuts as the government is carrying out would greatly increase the risk of a double dip. Looks like they were right.
Economies can't grow endlessly, unless you want to build everything on an unstable platform of false wealth and lending. Oh wait, that's what everyone wants...
Although the economy was growing again, until very recently. I'm no great fan of the capitalist mantra of never-ending growth but what are you suggesting as an alternative?
Ok, so maybe economists hadn't predicted that this was going to happen and certainly couldn't have forecast the impact of the weather, but...
Even if they were still predicting modest growth. Should George continue with his ideologically driven austerity measures or should he revise them in light of this new evidence?
I'd suggest that you wouldn't be at the helm of a company for very long if you didn't see your last quarter results as being particularly important.
So, good or bad time switch jobs?!
From 1st tier manufacturing to a construction based small business largely unaffected during the last 'dip'...
We're not in recession, we've only had one month of negative growth. We've got to have another before we're truly in recession.
Incidently while I don't think the coalition have covered themselves in glory I'm fairly certain any of the potential parties would have faired equally as badly. I think it's an extremely hard situation to deal with with many external factors beyond control and prediction.
We came out of recession under labour
And into it in the first palce....thanks to the muppets that voted for THEM!
There'll be some people on here for whom nothing would make them happier than if we double-dip.
Reputable economist were predicting it
Indeed. Many reputable economists were also saying it wouldn't happen though. I guess we'll get a better idea in the next few weeks.
Because historically countries that QE suffer inflation and all the rest of the ills that come with it, such as a poor exchange rate.
We wouldn't need so many cuts if the previous government hadn't built up such a large infrastructure (as labour governments always do) and put us in so much debt that 1 in every 5 tax pounds is going towards paying interest on that debt.
We're not in recession, we've only had one month of negative growth. We've got to have another before we're truly in recession.
For month read quarter.
The number of economists on here is amazing, considering it's come as a surprise to them [the real ones]
As a real economist (with a real degree in real economics and real econometrics), I was not even slightly taken by surprise. The next quarter, I fear, will show little improvement, if any.
Stagflation, anyone?
Hmm, perhaps all the worry over cuts and joblessness is what cause people not to spend...?
But yes, extremely difficult situation to be in. And we just voted in a bunch of noobs 🙄
And into it in the first palce....thanks to the muppets that voted for THEM!
Hang on. The recession was caused by Labour then? Not a world wide economic crisis that'd been brewing for 20 years? Wow.
[i]How would overspending cause a recession?[/i]
Well, that just about sums up the Pro left, tory haters here.
TJ, Grumm, you haven't a clue 🙄
as demonstrated here:
[i][Um lots of economists were predicting that such drastic cuts as the government is carrying out would greatly increase the risk of a double dip. Looks like they were right.[/i]
Yeap, thats right, cos of course, you'd never be able to find an [i]economist[/i] who would say what you wanted to here, and they never ever disagree with each other.
Bet you can't find an [i]economist[/i] who said we wouldn't DD...
Tsk, numpties 🙄
Just more insults from the Pro leftis here who think they can fool everyone here into thinking Labour are the best thing since sliced bread.
TJ and Grumm in "we hate the Tories" and heres why you should too, SHOCKER !!
Don't we need 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth for it to be called formally a recession? So this is a bit premptive doom mongering then!
Well done Tories (and all the chumps that voted for them)!
When a house is trashed, someones got to pay for it to be cleaned up.
Christ almighty! Listen to you lot bleating and whining. Its just me! Me! Me! isn't it with you selfish bastards?!
Will somebody think of the bankers FFS!!! The one's who've really suffered over the last few years.
They've got to make do with a paltry £7 billion bonus pool, regardless of whether its technically a double dip or not
And into it in the first palce....thanks to the muppets that voted for THEM!
Oh hang on, Labour caused a worldwide recession? All those people in Ireland must be very cross with Gordon Brown then, seeing as it's all his fault. 😕
We wouldn't need so many cuts.........
We [i]don't[/i] need so many cuts. We'll never pay the debt back if the economy slides back into recession caused by ideologically driven, excessively drastic cuts. (A position I seem to remember a Nobel prize winning economist coming out with a little while ago).
Just more insults from the Pro leftis here who think they can fool everyone here into thinking Labour are the best thing since sliced bread.
I'm not a fan of Labour - they are just marginally less reprehensible than the current incumbents.
Someone think of Brown and Blair.
Gold-plated pensions and income for life.
Thanks guys. No matter what nothing will wash the blood from your hands.
Neptune - MemberDon't we need 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth for it to be called formally a recession? So this is a bit premptive doom mongering then!
Yup - its an indication that thats the way we are heading - thats all it is.
Just more insults from the Pro leftis here who think they can fool everyone here into thinking Labour are the best thing since sliced bread.
(a) what's a leftis?
(b) I really don't like sliced bread
(c) Lots of economists (yes, I know we all vary in our opinions), even the more right-wing ones have serious doubts over the current government's policies. Not just the 'leftis'.
TandemJeremy - Member
Lionhert - the numbers for growth don't lie.
Yes they do, frequently. This newest set especially.
[i]Hang on. The recession was caused by Labour then? Not a world wide economic crisis that'd been brewing for 20 years? Wow. [/i]
No. Labour, The Tony and Gordon show should have been preparing us for what was building up, boom to a bust.
But what did Gordon do ?, he borrowed MORE !, to win votes and give more money away.
Theres a saying, Gordon may well have like to listen to:
In times of peace, prepare for war !.
Gordon didn't and so when the world caught cold, we got dragged down with it.
Of course, Grumm would have Labour in power still, and all those things Ed is saying Labour got wrong, well, he wouldn't be saying that and it would be "carry on".
You conveniently forget that the markets were circling the UK, waiting to see if they could give us the Greece, or Ireland treatment.
Which is what would have happened if borrow and spend Labour had, some how, stayed in power.
Thank goodness they are gone for now, and long may they stay in opposition.
They couldn't control their spending in the 70s, and they got it wrong again since 1997.
But of course, the Tory haters will all forget this and woffle on anyway.
Carry on Labour loving loonies.
🙄
Captain Crash - so please tell us how the overspending Labour government caused a banking collapse that started in the sup prime market in the US?
Of course economics is an inexact science but both Grumm and I posted in reply to
coffeeking - MemberThe number of economists on here is amazing, considering it's come as a suprise to them [the real ones] it would suggest that the original plans were fine.
Its clear that actually many economists did predict that these savage, ideologically driven and uneeded cuts would put us into recession - indeed this is the lesson from history - cuttin at this point of the economic cycle leads to recwession - see 1930s, 1980s for evidence. See why other countries are still putting money into their economies now - including that bastion of socialism the USA
Oh hang on, Labour caused a worldwide recession?
Maybe not, but you seem to think the Tories are for some odd reason....
And Labour always do spend money they haven't got like water. That's all they know.
.
TJ. Chomp.
As far back as 2001 the Government was warned that house prices/lenders werent sustainable.
Going back just a few years the amount a typical first time borrower needed to get a foot on the ladder was approaching 5xsalary.
People blame the banks for lending to people (credit cards etc).
Banks can't be held accountable for Adults and how an adult should behave. On a credit form should you write 'do you have a clue what income versus expenditure means'?
Or
'Do you have a means to pay this back'?
I know two friends who along with others panicked and jumped onto a property that still accounts for the majority of their combined income as they thought 'buy the best now as the market is only going to keep climbing'.
The Government rode the credit-economy with (pun) a house built on sand.
Maybe not, but you seem to think the Tories are for some odd reason....
No, they are just causing a recession in this country, rather than enduring a worldwide one. Crucial difference. 🙄
Not my fault, I didn't vote Tory...nor will I.
And I didn't vote Labour either. They squandered my 1997 vote and thus won't be getting another one again.
It's a shame my party of choice reneged on all of the policies that prompted me to support them in the first place.
One good thing. Banning smoking in pubs and restaurants.
The only light in a darkened valley.
Don't worry you lot. As soon as the 4%+ inflation, George's increase in VAT and still further massive job losses kick in this month, the economy will be back to rude health. Surely those intelligent and well thought-through policies will have our growth rate up to somewhere near China's in no time?
PeterPoddy.
Well put.
TJ.
USA are in currency war with the rest of the world, and wish to work their way out of recession by selling stuff, so Ben fires up the printing press and floods the world withmore reserve currency.
I just can't be 4rsed with you, you'll never accept the truth.
For someone so diligent in googling the [i]facts[/i] you seem to consistently fail to see Labours short comings while gettin busy flaming the tories.
Its so one sided as to be almost comical.
In all other matters you appear to try to hold a balanced view but when it comes to the tories, its just too much for you to resist.
Fortunately, most people on here are savy enough not to listen to you on this matter.
buyeee 😉
Nobel Prize-winning economist Christopher Pissarides, an expert on the jobs market, said Mr Osborne’s plan to take £81 billion out of the economy would send the jobless total soaring.Professor Pissarides said George Osborne and David Cameron were “exaggerating” Britain’s indebtedness by comparing it to Greece and misleading voters.
Fellow prize-winning economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz criticised Mr Osborne’s assault on jobs as a gamble with no real upside. They also expressed puzzlement at his deference to the same credit rating agencies whose own failures contributed so much to the 2008 banking collapse.
[b]Professor Krugman said of the planned cuts: “The British Government’s plan goes in exactly the wrong direction. It would cut Government employment by 490,000 workers at a time when the private sector is in no position to provide alternative employment.
“It would slash spending at a time when private demand isn’t at all ready to take up the slack.”[/b]
Bit of loonie lefty propaganda from back in October last year
the problem was not the sub-prime market as such, it was in the derivative products based on them, and the lack of competance in the banks assessing those risks, or actually just ignoring them.
@ both Red & Blue corners...
...you know it's entirely possible that both Conservative AND Labour governments have been grossly incompetent and continue to lie to the electorate.
the problem was not the sub-prime market as such, it was in the derivative products based on them, and the lack of competance in the banks assessing those risks, or actually just ignoring them.
Erm, what are you responding to there exactly?
@ both Red & Blue corners......you know it's entirely possible that both Conservative AND Labour governments have been grossly incompetent and have lied to the electorate.
Yup, like I said - I detest New Labour for many reasons - they are just marginally less wrong than the Tories.
Q. How do you know Ed Balls is lying ?
A. He has his mouth open.
my voting policy is still based on the number of tw*ts there were in the respective political parties at Uni, hence I vote tory, for whom there were a fair fewer.
still true as far as I see it.
Yup, like I said - I detest New Labour for many reasons - they are just marginally less wrong than the Tories.
There's wrong and then there's taking a wrong turn at wrong junction in Wrongtonshire.
I can't see either one of them as being any less wrong than the other.
Erm, what are you responding to there exactly?
should have quoted, it was molgrips:
Hang on. The recession was caused by Labour then? Not a world wide economic crisis that'd been brewing for 20 years? Wow.
threads moving too fast - it is bit like the money that was flowing out of the treasury whilst under Labours control...
No, they are just causing a recession in this country, rather than enduring a worldwide one. Crucial difference
And why, exactly, is that happening then? Not becasue they're attempting to pay back some of the money that Labour borrowed when they should have known better, perhaps?
D'oh, what am I thinking? That Labour had changed since the 70s? Silly me....
I choose not to vote, so I'm not a fanboy of either party, but blaming one or the other seems a bit silly..
Once the crash was underway, labour dropped taxes (a fairly right wing policy, as policies go) printed\borrowed, and spent a lot of money. This is pretty acceptable behaviour in times of hardship, as the reduce the length/impact of the recession
Once the recession was over, the tories raised taxes (a fairly left wing thing to do), stopped printing, and applied some cuts to try and reduce the rather large goverment defecit. This is quite normal activity in times of wealth.
I doubt that the actions of the other side would have been much difference, if those in power were the other way round at the time. Sure - labour might have cut a little less and taxed a little more, but there was nothing in their manefesto to suggest this would be the case.
0.5% drop over 3 months is everyone taking 3 hours off work, once in that period. It is fairly reasonable to assume that 2 seperate weeks of snow can be blamed for a chunk of this impact.
And why, exactly, is that happening then? Not becasue they're attempting to pay back some of the money that Labour borrowed when they should have known better, perhaps?
I've already answered that one. 🙄
Going soft on banks? You do realise that there's a dilemma here, don't you? Clamp down on the banks, they take their business elsewhere...
Oh hang on, Labour caused a worldwide recession?
Maybe not, but you seem to think the Tories are for some odd reason....
I do? No, I'm saying it's been the entire economic culture since the start of the 80s. Pigeons coming home to roost, that's all. Infantile to blame one group of people.
Infantile to blame one group of people.
Nobel prize winning economists have strongly suggested the government is going in the wrong direction. Is their opinion infantile?
buyeee
Cheerio, we're missing you already.
That's the trouble with economists - they like to think it's some kind of science. I hope universities are still just giving BAs in it.
I know lets concentrate on the problem and not worry about, proposing alternative solutions.
Or even better, let's all argue or call each other names, everyone knows how much fun it is to club someone with an insult 😀
We have all these individuals in one place, who are smart enough to have an opinion on what is wrong.
But not one of you is smart enough to figure out, that all we have are the moments and you lot a throwing them away, while gaining nothing.
It's only paper money kids
no it's only debt.
remember kids debt is wealth (until the banks want it back).
Or even better, let's all argue or call each other names, everyone knows how much fun it is to club someone with an insult.
Ploppypants.
Double dip?
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Edited: there's no point feeding the trolls.
Not entirely sure that we in the UK are disciplined enough on the whole to curtail our lifestyles for very long, to be honest. I know I'm not!
I prefer the term dead cat bounce and it hit the ground long before the Condems turned up.
In discussions such as these i find visual aids help:
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Nobel prize winning economists have strongly suggested the government is going in the wrong direction.
Who, this one?
In July 2008 Nobel laureate Paul Krugman wrote that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) "didn't do any subprime lending, because they can't: the definition of a subprime loan is precisely a loan that doesn't meet the requirement, imposed by law, that Fannie and Freddie buy only mortgages issued to borrowers who made substantial down payments and carefully documented their income." (New York Times, July 18, 2008)
Read a bit of the first page, couldn't be bothered with most of the second - but, with my massive grasp of economics (massively small, that is) how can we know that this wouldn't have happened anyway if Labour had stayed in power and 'the cuts' hadn't been quite so severe.
We can't run both choices in parallel, so there's no real way of knowing.
Whoah Darcy! Stop knocking Economists! I've got a an economics degree, I do forecasting and stuff for a living... my favourite phrase when I'm not right... 'Well it's an art not a science' 😆
Only had to use it once though 8)
Not entirely sure that we in the UK are disciplined enough on the whole to curtail our lifestyles for very long, to be honest. I know I'm not!
we have some of the highest levels of personal debt in the world.
you only have to look at areas of the grim north where average wages are in the high teens early 20's but people expect to have a new car and 40in plasma screens (all on the never-never) and live in homes 'worth'* more than 5-6 times their salary fueled by the property porn on tv and the myth that 'property can only go up in value' we are seeing the results of this absence of prudence and desire for instant gratification in our current situation.
the government is stuck between a rock and a hard place trying to let the property boom deflate gently without upsetting the fickle voters too much (can't raise interest rates to deal with inflation) while saving some money through cuts and attempting to regulate the banking system without pissing it off.
don't worry about it, just chuck another bundle of notes on the debt bonfire.
You all wanna hear something funny?
You know how all the banks were wringing their hands and promising to behave themselves? Well get this - I'm moving house on Friday. After my wife went back to work in October it's seemed like a good idea and with an expanding family yada yada yada....
We got a mortgage deal from a high street lender at 4.25 times EACH of our incomes which seemed pretty mental, but the best bit was that my wife only needed her first month's payslip to qualify.
Is that responsible lending?
This is not a political issue folks, this is about corporate greed.
tominalis - in case you missed it earlier
grumm - MemberNobel Prize-winning economist Christopher Pissarides, an expert on the jobs market, said Mr Osborne’s plan to take £81 billion out of the economy would send the jobless total soaring.
Professor Pissarides said George Osborne and David Cameron were “exaggerating” Britain’s indebtedness by comparing it to Greece and misleading voters.
Fellow prize-winning economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz criticised Mr Osborne’s assault on jobs as a gamble with no real upside. They also expressed puzzlement at his deference to the same credit rating agencies whose own failures contributed so much to the 2008 banking collapse.
Professor Krugman said of the planned cuts: “The British Government’s plan goes in exactly the wrong direction. It would cut Government employment by 490,000 workers at a time when the private sector is in no position to provide alternative employment.
“It would slash spending at a time when private demand isn’t at all ready to take up the slack.”
Bit of loonie lefty propaganda from back in October last year
you only have to look at areas of the grim north where average wages are in the high teens early 20's but people expect to have a new car and 40in plasma screens (all on the never-never) and live in homes 'worth'* more than 5-6 times their salary
Oh, it's all povvy northerners' fault?
You all wanna hear something funny?You know how all the banks were wringing their hands and promising to behave themselves? Well get this - I'm moving house on Friday. After my wife went back to work in October it's seemed like a good idea and with an expanding family yada yada yada....
We got a mortgage deal from a high street lender at 4.25 times EACH of our incomes which seemed pretty mental, but the best bit was that my wife only needed her first month's payslip to qualify.
Is that responsible lending?
This is not a political issue folks, this is about corporate greed.
Is this responsible borrowing?
rs - it's a fair question, in our case I would say yes as the cost of the mortgage equates to less than 25% of our monthly income.
well if you think its responsible borrowing, surely its responsible lending too 😉
the myth that 'property can only go up in value'
No-one says that. People say that property will go up [i]in the long term[/i] and it does. If anyone thinks that they are being told property will ONLY EVER go up then they're an idiot.