[Closed] So, Cameron wants to renegotiate with Europe....

He is prime ministerial and really influential he could sell sand to the Arabs, snow to the eskimos etc
he is not well liked in the EU is he
IMHO he will get some sort of pseduo "change" he will spin as real even though its not anything really [ remember how they reacted to the referendums on the constitution eh], we will have a vote and probably decide to stay, he will decide it was because he was so god damn brilliant etc.

The tory party may splinter in the process and the press will do a Milliband on him. He will retire shortly afterwards

JY... sounds like an amazingly accurate and plausable prediction.. can you just have a quick gaze in the crystal ball and email the winning numbers for saturdays lotto..

Given that he has already said he won't stand for a third term as PM, I reckon he's finally seen it coming!

Negotiate with ZM bureaucrats? Could you duplicate and triplicate a copy of your definition please then perhaps email yourself a copy then please define the definition again please then repeat again.

What you say? Negotiate what? Could you duplicate ... 😆

I think he's p*ssing in the wind.

Nothing will happen, referendum will take place and we'll exit the EU.

I'm not sure how I feel about that currently.

If we exit the EU there could be an upside when house prices adjust. 2008/9 will seem like a picnic as we have our own sub-prime fiasco. The Conservative party could end up as stuffed as Labour & the Lib Dems.

[quote=cloudnine opined]JY... sounds like an amazingly accurate and plausable prediction.. can you just have a quick gaze in the crystal ball and email the winning numbers for saturdays lotto..

In light of the way you de constructed my view with such piercing and irrefutable logic I retract it completely.

Shall we save my post and see as I dont think we will be having a grown up exchange of ideas on the subject

EU want to gang bang UK because the time is right due to current economy climate. They can blame UK for all ills ...

Do you think there is room for negotiation? You can go ape shite but you are dealing with ZM bureaucrats so how far can you get?

I want out but I have a feeling that we might be stuck in the loop with many unwilling to take a hit because "they have it so good for so long" short sighted mentality.

😯

[quote=chewkw said]
I want out but I have a feeling that we might be stuck in the loop with many unwilling to take a hit because "they have it so good for so long" short sighted mentality.

I think we're heading for the exit door.

At least he's having a go, rather than just lying down and taking everything the unelected bureaucrats throw at us from Strasbourg. Personally I don't give a toss how successful he is. We're gong to stick with Europe anyway, so if he only gets 50% of what he goes in for then that's a win in my book. There are two factors in his favour - 1. the fact he won a majority in the recent election on a policy of an in/out refurendum - that gives his demands for a re-negotiaion more weight which wasn't there before. And 2 - Germany, who is the only other strong european country with a half-decent economy actually needs us more than they need us. We can survive outside the EU perfectly well, though we may be better off in the EU - Germany is well an truly committed, moreso as they've bankroll basically every other shambolic nation, so they actually need us to stay in more than we need to stay in, so that gives us a strong ally. If Cameron play's it clever then I think he'll get enough concessions through to come back and claim a victory. He won't get everything - this is a negotiation so by definition there has to be give as well as take. I suspect we won't get concessions on EU immigration, but we'll get enough of everything else, like no benefits for immigrants for a certain time etc.

At the end of the day a Milliaband/SNP coalition would have absolutely no power or influence in the EU so we're better off by far from day 1.

[quote=wobbliscott said] We're gong to stick with Europe anyway

Don't count on it.

ZM bureaucrats

the fact he won a majority in the recent election on a policy of an in/out refurendum

He did not win a majority the majority voted against him nor is it fair or accurate to say everyone single person who voted conservative agreed with every single thing the manifesto said. That is just untrue.

2 - Germany, who is the only other strong european country with a half-decent economy actually needs us more than they need us.

We can survive outside the EU perfectly well, though we may be better off in the EU - Germany is well an truly committed,

The argument the EU cannot live without us [ or needs us more] is like arguing the UK could not survive without Wales or Scotland. Its farcical

They will chuck him a bone hell crow about as a success the way Osborne did when he lied about the rebate payment, the Tory press will go along with and we'll probably scrape thru the referendum and just stay in

(If we were to loose it the economy would go down the shitter, scotland will get its own referndum, quit the uk Cameron will be the man that destroyed the nation and the Tory press will hail borris as our new saviour whilst still managing to blame it all on Blair, brown, miliband, Burnham and clegg)

ChubbyBlokeInLycra - Member

That's a good one ...

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They will chuck him a bone hell crow about as a success the way Osborne did when he lied about the rebate payment, the Tory press will go along with and we'll probably scrape thru the referendum and just stay in

Here's hoping....

Germany are more committed as they are in the Euro and have invested more to bail out other failing EU nations. and the vast majority of EU countries are basket cases including France. There is only Germany and the UK that stand out as being half decent nations from an economic perspective - count out Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, France and don't even bother with the more minor nations. Germany is all powerful in the EU as it is by far the biggest and most stable economy, we're a close second, but not in as deep as Germany as we're not in the Euro, so it is easier for us to bail out as we're not in the Euro. Germany is relying on us staying in more than we are relying on it. We're in a very strong bargaining position - not completely dominant, but pretty strong all the same. We can afford to call the EU's bluff to a certain extent.

I really believe we won't exit, the silent majority will come out and vote like they did in the GE, but they will want some concessions. I think that most sensible people will realise that immigration has a net benefit to the UK so will forgive Cameron for not coming back with concession on EU immigration - which is a red line for the EU anyway, he knows that. However no benefits for EU immigrants is something a lot of the rest of the EU has sympathy with, especially Germany, so we're highly likely to get concessions on that subject - which will probably be enough for the Euro sceptics to vote to stay in.

the silent majority will come out and vote like they did in the GE

You're assuming they want to stay in 🙂

Awesome counter there wobbliscott 😆
We are on the margins in terms of commitment and literal integration. We are not in the euro zone and we constantly moan and whinge about what they are doing whilst wanting to veto everything and be treated as special- of which this is the latest petulant show. the rest are [ relatively] happy with project Euro and tire of our sniping from the sidelines mixed with trying to wag the dog. I have no idea why you think this is a strong position and I dont expect to see a cogent explanation actually i dont expect to see an attempt to explain this.

I agree he wont getting anything on free movement however i suspect he will get some sort of benefit type arrangement that will allow him to look tough but wont make any difference as they all come here to work anyway.

The silent majority in the GE turned out to be right wing douchebags

I don't hold out much hope

Imagine how we'd treat Scotland post independence. That's how Europe would treat us if we left.
ie causing us as much grief as possible even if it was not in their best interest and winning votes while they did it.

it's a good thing Scotland stayed in the UK, because we were told how important it was to be "taken seriously" on the world stage roflcopters

Cameron has a clear mandate, thus probably surprised the EU members but they will respect it. Cameron will win some concessions for sure, immigration is a big issue in France and Germany too. So things like ability to claim benefits especially "in-work" benefits, I think current proposal is 4 year residency minimum. This has support elsewhere and the open border (Shengen) has caused big trouble, eg the asylum seekers camps in Calais are very unpopular with the French. Also on tax, cross border EU tax abuse is rife a lot of it signed off by Junker personally in Luxembourg. Further opt out powers too on future legislation.

There is push back on formal EU treaty change as that requires ratification from all 26 members and would be hugely time consuming for the EU.

Remember the EU and eurozone are mired in the Greek debt fiasco, they need to sort this first and it's a huge mess. Greece is on the brink of financial melt down and is playing a game of chicken with the eurozone. In this environment there is little time for the UK discussions.

A Greek exit from the euro and UK leaving the EU will be very damaging for the whole "project", the EU won't let both happen. They may wait to see how the first opinion poll look for the in/out vote.

Also on tax, cross border EU tax abuse is rife a lot of it signed off by Junker personally in Luxembourg.

And also endorsed by the British government and taken to further extremes by British protectorates in the channel isles and the isle of man.

Cameron might have even garnered more allies in resisting Junckers appointment if he hadn't just whined like a baby and thrown his toys out of the pram, and instead tried some diplomacy. Now he is just a laughing stock.

So, could NI Wales and Scotland stay in if England votes to leave. Things like CAP etc are devolved to WG and they deal direct with the Commission. Wales and I guess Scotland and NI do quite well from the EU from a redistributive point of view and would not do so well relying on the Westminster government.

@zippy the UK is the worlds 6th largest economy, we buy a huge amount not least from the EU. The Germans are not going to impede trade or we'll impose import duties on VW's Audi's etc. The U.S. will be very happy to sign closer trade deals with us. We as a country take lots of holidays in Europe and spend lots of money abroad, they are not going to jeopardise that. If we where a net exporter, like Germany, our situation would be weaker but as a net importer we have a a better negotiating stance.

If we left the EU Scotland would use it as a justification for another referendum
The Tory/ Rupert Murdoch tactic of bashing labour via the SNP would mean they undoubtedly win this time

England out of the EU but ROUK in would see a lot of companies relocating to scotland/ Wales for the tradetrade and economic benefits

@MSP the Channel Islands are a tiny jot compared to the institutional abuse going on in Luxembourg and Ireland. The Irish agreed to phase out the worst of their abuse but not for 4 years yet. The EU loses billions in tax revenue through Luxembourg which has in the meantime become one of the richest countries in the EU.

@kimbers you can have a referendum in Scotland but they cannot leave the UK without Westminster blessing. I am not sure Scotland would vote for a future which included being a member of the euro in any case

Cameron would look even less legit if he denied a yes vote what they wanted , humiliated at home and internationally

I am not sure Scotland would vote for a future which included being a member of the euro in any case

You have to commit to join the Euro you dont have to join the Euro.

The U.S. will be very happy to sign closer trade deals with us.

That is the exactly the stupidity that keeps getting spouted, but it is absolutely without merit. The pretence that business will replace EU trade with US trade is a complete fallacy. If it was so easy they would already be doing it as well as, not instead of. The US is far more interested trading with the EU block than it is with the UK, and the "special relationship" only exists for the US to abuse to it's advantage.

Europe are much better friends to the UK than the US has been for a long long time. It is about time the fantasists stopped believing in the nostalgic Hollywood WWII propaganda and took a look at the modern reality.

the Channel Islands are a tiny jot compared to the institutional abuse going on in Luxembourg

No they really are not, the CI, the IOM and your personal favourite Monaco are massive problems.

you forget one simple thing ( and i am in the stay in the eu camp) any one member state can vote no to a proposal and thats it.

so if you lead a poor eastern european country that has seen massive emigration to the uk and many of those emigrating send comparitively large sums home to feed and clothe grandma etc so that your govt doesnt have to then how would you vote on welfare reform for eu migrants? if your countries males/females have been able to find work in the uk and their families have stayed at home and receive family credits child tax credits child allowance because daddy or mummy is a hardworking immegarnt in the uk

i ve lived/ work in eastern europe and many folks leave to work here and most return permanently at some point as i did..

I'm not sure that getting any concessions from the EU will make any difference to the outcome of a referendum at all, the anti Europe lot will vote against regardless.

I think we will end up staying, just, but I think we could have the referendum tomorrow and the result would be the same.

So, could NI Wales and Scotland stay in if England votes to leave. Things like CAP etc are devolved to WG and they deal direct with the Commission. Wales and I guess Scotland and NI do quite well from the EU from a redistributive point of view and would not do so well relying on the Westminster government.

2) There's no big money for "redistribution" for Wales or NI now that poorer Eastern EU states are in place.

What's the deal if Cameron can't get all of what he wants? Does he campaign for 'no' in a referendum ? Also a negotiating position, that relies on the outcome of a referendum, is not a strong one!

CMD is a pro Europe and doing this to appease his party Stray tories who would vote UKIP
he will want enough to spin at as a victory and he will campaign for stay

The EU dont quite want us to leave but they wont give more than token concessions either

I suspect there's a fair split inthe EU appetite as well, I am sure that some nations would be glad to see the back of us, however others will be far more worried about handing france and Germany even greater dominance of both the machinery and the finances.

Plus of course we remain one of the biggest net contributors to the EU budget.

There are plenty of EU funded projects in Wales as well as the fund for direct payment under the CAP etc.

JY I don't see how Scotland could stay out of the euro in the scenario we are speaking of.

The EU has given the UK material concessions in the past not least the "opt out" and the euro. I think most of what Cameron wants the big EU countries want too. Note that France (and Germany ?) also refused the asylum seeker quotas, I think a limit on in work benefits and action on tax for example they will be more than happy with.

FWIW of course the EU can survive without the UK financially but the EU superstate project would be severly damaged by a UK exit. The UK public does deserve to understand that it is a super state project and now is the time to vote on that

Dave's corporate funders will demand he campaigns to stay in Europe, whether he gets any concessions or not. The question then is how the substantial lunatic fringe on his own backbenches react to that. You could well end up with a civil war within the Tory party on the issue. And the Labour Party are little more united on the subject either. They just do their Euro arguments less publicly

JY I don't see how Scotland could stay out of the euro in the scenario we are speaking of.

Well thats me convinced then

Can you really not recall all this from the scottish thread?
Simplified you have to agree to join one day but you can easily make sure you never do - see Sweden for example
A newly formed state cannot pass the tests as a number of them are measured over time.
In the words of the EU

All EU Member States are part of Economic and Monetary Union, which means they coordinate their economic policies for the benefit of the EU as a whole. However, not all EU Member States are in the euro area – only those having adopted the euro are members of the euro area.
Of the Member States outside the euro area, Denmark and the United Kingdom have 'opt-outs' from joining the euro. These two countries can join in the future if they so wish.
Sweden is not yet in the euro area, as it has not made the necessary changes to its central bank legislation and it does not meet the convergence criterion related to participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). However, under the Treaty, Sweden is required to adopt the euro once it fulfils the necessary conditions.
The remaining non-participating Member States acceded to the Union in 2004, 2007 and 2013, after the euro was launched. At the time of their accession, they did not meet the conditions for entry to the euro area, therefore their Treaties of Accession allow them time to make the necessary adjustments – they are Member States with a 'derogation', as is Sweden. These Member States have committed to joining the euro area as soon as they fulfil the entry conditions. When this is the case, the 'derogation' is 'abrogated' by a decision of the Council, and the Member State concerned adopts the euro.
National target dates for adoption of the euro
The Treaty does not specify a particular timetable for joining the euro area, but leaves it to Member States to develop their own strategies for meeting the conditiosn for euro adoption. Seven of the 13 Member States who joined the EU since 2004 have already joined the euro area, most recently Lithuania on 1 January 2015.

the EU superstate project would be severly damaged by a UK exit

I dont understand why they just dont get on with the business of quietlly breaking the EU migration rules like most other countries - i bet the fine is only a tenner,

There seems little point voting in a referendum when no one will know what they are voting for. The only certainly is that the EU is unsustainable in its current form. So there is no point debating that.

It either reverts essentially to a loose trade union with it's four freedoms (yes) or moves to a full monetary and fiscal union (no). The pretence that something of a hybrid can be maintained is merely dishonest.

It's not just Cameron BTW, I think most people realise that the EU needs urgent reform. The question is merely which direction do you favour.

Indeed that is the choice
The problem is all of Europe [pretty much] favour the former [ greater and closer ties]and we [ alone pretty much] favour the later of just a loose free trade club with limited political objectives.
Its hard to see how the person/country/nation on the margins sniping ,who wants something different, can change the ethos and MO of the Union. It can easily get to the point where they , and we, have just had enough.
I also think its possible there is a third way where we somehow stay in but there is a two tier EU for those in the Euro zone and those outwith

Pretty messy but the EU does like its irrational fudges.

Blimey! I agree with JY on the subject of Europe.

Personally I think the only real future for Europe is a two tier system. Where those within the Euro will continue towards a federal superstate, and a second group, who remain in a trade block.

Because the euro isn't sustainable as a currency without the former, but the EU itself is unsustainable without the latter.

I actually think that a lot of people within the EU are realistic enough to see renegotiation is an opportunity for the reform that's desperately needed. Who's interests is it serving in its present incarnation? Fewer and fewer of its citizens.

Unfortunately I don't see that pragmatism within the present EU leadership, who seem typically blinkered in their incredibly narrow and ideologically driven idea of what the EU should be (a federal state with a single currency), and completely removed from the people that they're meant to serve. The European Parliament presently makes Westminster look like a model of representative democracy

Are you hungover from the euro party and not had any meat or pastry based cure 😉

Sounds like the start of The Phantom Menace.
That didn't end well.

And right on cue, along comes [url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/24/greece-warns-it-is-set-to-default-on-debt-repayment-loans ]Euro-crisis installment 746 [/url], just to remind everyone what a total shambles the present set up is

Hence my comment above Binners. Junkers will try to find yet one more rabbit but this can is well kicked now.

Just flicking through this again:

so if you lead a poor eastern european country that has seen massive emigration to the uk and many of those emigrating send comparitively large sums home to feed and clothe grandma etc so that your govt doesnt have to then how would you vote on welfare reform for eu migrants?

AFAIK these states don't particularly like all their most highly skilled workers buggering off elsewhere. Leaves a bit of a skills gap, not to mention a hole in tax revenue and economic development.

Well he's off to a flying start!

David Cameron's drive to reform the EU suffered its hardest day yet after a string of leaders rejected his plans to strip welfare from migrants.
The Prime Minister was told by four European leaders in a succession of face-to-face meetings that they could not accept plans to rewrite the treaties of the EU to deny in-work benefits to migrants.

And that's from the Torygraph, so with a positive spin on it!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11668317/David-Camerons-hardest-day-on-EU-reform-as-leaders-reject-migrant-plans.html

Of course if all jobs paid a decent wage, you wouldn't even need in work benefits.....

And that's from the Torygraph, so with a positive spin on it!

The "Torygraph" will never put a positive spin on negotiations with the EU, regardless of the party in power.

He exerts as much influence over them as the euroscpetics in his own party then.