Signs of economic s...
 

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[Closed] Signs of economic slowdown

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Touristy area.

Far fewer tourists the last couple of months. Dropped off a cliff compared to last year. Clearly lots of people will be going abroad again, but I think it is more than just that. Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

We have been going on fewer day trips as we start to count the cost of fuel.

Housing market locally seems to have completely frozen. Last year stuff sold in a day or two, lots not even advertised. This year there are loads for sale, silly asking prices and almost non shifting.

Things really starting to bite I feel.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:07 pm
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Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

Where? I want to book a reservation, that sounds ideal 😀

On a more serious note, I think this is just the thin end of the wedge..

We have certain global issues that we have no control over, but we also have the energy crisis, brexit, and it looks like the conservatives are about to instigate a trade war with the EU over Ireland at litterally the worst possible time.

Buckle up, kids!

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:12 pm
 Drac
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Been rammed with tourist here since before Easter and showing no signs of stopping.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:16 pm
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Housing still selling quick here but completion seems to take forever

Cafes, shops etc are steady rather than busy I think - a few new cafes have opened locally in the last couple of months which I think might seem brave in the medium term.

I'm being a bit more cautious with spending, concentrating on needs rather than wants. And plans for a new car have gone on hold as other household stuff has had to take priority. Our own holiday plans are on hold as daughters foreign trips are back on post Covid - Eurogym in Switzerland, music tour to Austria and school trip to Cern have pretty much ****ed this years budget.

At the beginning of the year we were seriously talking about me quitting work or taking a big downgrade as its destroyed my mental health, as we could have managed. Can't really see that being possible now, not sure where that leaves me mentally..

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:25 pm
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I'm in the 'buckle up' camp too. Food bills are shooting up and we aren't alone in saying that, but I think the summer won't be so bad, once or turns cold again the number of people in real dire straits could be huge. So signs of a slow down? Well the government have acted and....oh.. ermm...

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:25 pm
 dazh
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I’m spending less on fancy beer. There’s definitely a recession on the way 😀

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:36 pm
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It's going to get bad, thankfully my wife and i seem to be in secure careers that will keep going despite an economic downturn, but thankfully we made sure our mortgage etc is small enough for one of us to cover it all

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:38 pm
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devon and cornwall seems a bit quieter than the madhouse this time last year. housing market is still mental.

Flew in/out of bristol airport last week and it was an utter shitshow.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:40 pm
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I fear for any business that relies on discretionary spending, particularly in leisure. Will be the final nail in the coffin of many firms which have soldiered on past covid hoping for an upturn in its wake.

Sad at the thought of all those lockdown dogs which will get dumped as the money gets tight.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:43 pm
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Belt tightening is to be expected. Count myself lucky that it is even a concept I have any control over.

It is the the fairly rapid change in house buying activity locally that surprised me. Confidence is a delicate thing.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:44 pm
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Housing in Stoke-on-Trent and surrounding towns has gone mad. Houses selling within hours for more than asking and more than zoopla estimates. Jokes about stoke on trent aside, isn't it the same everywhere else? I thought it was.
Fortunately for us rising costs just means less meals out, less weekend breaks away with the kids and slightly cheaper accommodation for our summer hols. I'm very glad I didn't bend to the wife's request to move to a massive house and mortgage a few years ago.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:49 pm
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Definite downturn in parcels at my depot for delivery for most areas.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 3:51 pm
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I know that on middleclasstrackworld a lot of people gauge the strength of the economy by the housing market in their area, but for most people their economic considerations are a bit more pressing than how much equity is in their property and how fast houses are selling in nearby streets. For a lot of people, property prices are about as relevant to them as the price of gold bullion

I fear for any business that relies on discretionary spending, particularly in leisure

I commented on the Boris Johnson thread about this. I was out with a mate last week who's senior at one of the big online clothing retailers based in Manchester.

Not the type that are selling cashmere cardigans to Cheshire housewives

He commented that over the last month their sales haven't just reduced, they have absolutely dropped off a cliff. They are selling virtually nothing. He thinks this is entirely down to the cost of living increases meaning that people just have no disposable income at all.

There are a lot of jobs dependent on this sector in and around Manchester.

I fear we're in for one serious financial walloping, and we've a bunch of morons at the helm who's bright idea to deal with this incoming economic shitstorm is to start a trade war with our nearest neighbours

Brilliant!

I'd hate to be dependent on benefits or on minimum wage in this country, because they are going to be absolutely ****ed when all this kicks in properly, and those presently in government couldn't give a toss, as proved by their 'buy value brands/get yourself a better paying job' comments this week. Clueless!

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 4:02 pm
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Houses selling within hours for more than asking and more than zoopla estimates. Jokes about stoke on trent aside, isn’t it the same everywhere else? I thought it was.

It must be very much area dependent.
I'm just about to complete on a purchase, paying 1k more than the 'offers over x' price.

Friends were telling me I'd never secure the purchase... But I know the area well and know what things sell for.

Houses priced to sell will be snatched up very quickly. But equally I've seen some overpriced places on the market for months and even some reductions.

It just depends.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 4:14 pm
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This week MrsRNP did 51covers of her free 3course sit down hot meal on Monday nights and take home food hamper from her community kitchen that she set up. Was 40 covers a few weeks ago.

This is for people who have fallen through the net including a couple of families with young kids.

We are fortunate that we don't have kids or anything on lease/finance and have cleared the mortgage.

I've seen the people who fell through the net during Covid. MrsRNP did 300 Xmas dinners that we distributed - it's going to be far worse than that this winter/xmas.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 4:24 pm
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I went to Next on the IKEA retail park near Nottingham on Saturday afternoon (as I was in the area) - I braced myself for a nightmare getting in and out but the car park was half empty.

I've never seen it like that on a Saturday.

A small steak (grill) restaurant I do printing for said that no-one ordered steaks over the last weekend - all went for cheaper burgers and the like. Their profit margin on burgers is miles better than steaks though! 🙂

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 5:00 pm
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Kin busy in Northumberland.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 5:47 pm
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Kin busy in Northumberland.

I was up at Kielder last WE and it was deserted, we had the mountain bikes trails to ourselves, didn't see another rider on any of the single track (mid morning Saturday).

NB I realise that by admitting to having ridden a MTB I immediately forfeit the right to post in the Chat forum for 6 months. In my defense, it was the first time in about 10 years....

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 5:54 pm
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Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

Maybe their bubble has burst. A lot of them have been taking the absolute piss with their pricing whilst going abroad has been a PITA. Now that's changed and its cheaper for a family of 4 to go to Spain than it is for a caravan lodge down in Cornwall, I think they will start to struggle. And as for centreparcs.....

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 6:17 pm
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Mate of mine is a landscaper, normally he has about 5 or 6 jobs a week to quote for. Since Easter it's gone off a cliff, maybe a couple of inquiries a fortnight now. It's non essential spending of course - making the garden nice, so very much not a priority now storm clouds are gathering.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 7:23 pm
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Cambridge city centre was busy last weekend with locals and visitors. Spending is hard though, I wanted a white non-slim for shirt for a wedding on Friday. I couldn't find anything reasonable.

As for down turn, people are being hammered at the petrol station, fuel bills are insane and jobs are incredibly instable. Locally a house builder has gone into administration, on a new town build where the houses are all occupied.

Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 7:38 pm
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I think it's mixed. Day-to-day spending and 'luxuries' seem to have been cut but house prices are still going up and business activity is high (e.g. manufacturing). The demand for labour is also beyond supply, so I see wages going up soon.

Now's the time to move job/get a pay rise, before you have to pay those energy bills in December!

Definitely some problems in 'getting goods to market', which is frustrating.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 8:25 pm
 dazh
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The demand for labour is also beyond supply, so I see wages going up soon.

Not for much longer. We’re heading for a 1981 style correction. Back then the tories deliberately caused a deep recession to reduce the labour force, and bring down wages and inflation. They’re doing the same again. We’ve seen nothing yet.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 8:34 pm
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Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

While I'm sure there are, I'm sure a fair few of the people you see about "with money" are actually just riding the wave with their credit rating. There's probably another consumer debt Bubble following closely behind this cost of living/stagflation mess.

Still at least there's some safe, yet compassionate hands at the wheel here in Blighty... Oh.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 8:40 pm
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@dazh I disagree - where will all the staff come from to fill these vacancies? Are we happy to have less choice as a result?

I don't think so. The loss of free labour movement between the UK and EU is causing shortages which are not being filled by other immigrants, or the local population. So we either accept less goods and services, or permit more immigration.

Also, the causes are supply-side, so the need to tackle input prices is greater than curbing consumer spending by increasing taxes - this would also harm the economy long-term by jeopardizing industry.

Much better to relax immigration and custom controls to facilitate growth and invest in domestic energy production and efficiency measures.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 9:16 pm
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There’s no way this bunch of Brexit headbangers will allow immigration from the EU. That would be admitting defeat and there’s one thing they won’t do is admit they made a mistake.

There’s some very hard times coming for a lot of people, some of which have been insulated from it due to their credit bubble. I’m worried for my Mum and MiL, both pensioners with only state pensions to live on, no big pot of savings and no property to sell.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 9:53 pm
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I’m keeping an eye out for an increase in goths walking around. They are the true harbingers of doom. Not a cause, but a portent for sure.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:02 pm
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It would be a shame allowing dogma to harm the economy (and people) for avoidable reasons.

Yes, raising interest rates may curb inflation but I really do see trade (with other countries) as the best way out of this. It could help with the supply problems and avoid contraction of the economy.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:07 pm
 Drac
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I was up at Kielder last WE and it was deserted, we had the mountain bikes trails to ourselves, didn’t see another rider on any of the single track (mid morning Saturday).

That’s pretty normal for Kielder. I was in town today and sat outside having coffee, other than 3 people the rest were all tourists from around 30 people. Then there were the others in another cafe beside me, plus dozens walking through the market place.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:07 pm
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Double whammy of Covid-19 and Ukraine war will bite hard this time. Blaming Brexit or the government is pointless. All governments in this world face the same prospect when fuel price starts to sky rocket. EU will also face the harsh reality soon. Sanctions bite but somehow it may bite the wrong hands. As I said the Ukraine thread sanction is not the way forward. I bet some governments may fall even before the Ukraine war is over. Bear in mind the longer the sanctions is in place the harder it will be for those that impose the sanctions. Think about it. Now the West cannot back off the sanctions because they will lose face and will proceed no matter how hard the ordinary people suffer. Even if a change of government will not make things better because the next government will want to do the "right thing" by getting themselves involved in the same situation (they think it is a vote winner). Whatever changes made will Not have massive impact unless the fuel price is dealt with first.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:08 pm
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I think we're in for some serious stagflation, rather than a recession. But the govt is reluctant to spend as they see that as exacerbating inflation. I think we will just bumble along for a year or two with living standards quietly dropping as we go!

I'm giving the war another 6 months max

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:16 pm
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I think we’re in for some serious stagflation,...

This time it will be very serious because the recovery is dependent on Ukraine war. Are we looking at 10 years? 20 years? Who will back off first?

Current fuel supply is practically cut off from the main supplier (Russia). Problem is that the West cannot back off as they have locked themselves into imposing sanctions on the fuel supplier. More or less scoring own goal.

But the govt is reluctant to spend as they see that as exacerbating inflation.

That's not a solution. The solution is having fuel.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:20 pm
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Loads of tourists here but pubs, cafes, restaurants and tourist facilities are closing on odd days or limiting features due to a lack of staff.

There's a lack of staff because housing is unaffordable for those on lower wages.

Housing is unaffordable because it's all being bought up as holiday homes or Air BnB for tourists ...

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:22 pm
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Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

out and about on my local country road rides in Lincolnshire, it baffles me where people are finding the money, there is a lot, and I mean A LOT of massive houses being built up here, in every village, on every plot available,

similar with cake & cookie shops, a few in town, 1 owned by my brothers ex mrs, and again, it baffles me who wants overpriced desserts deliver via ubereats at 9pm at night, but she's booming and opening a 2nd shop,

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:29 pm
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it baffles me where people are finding the money

We are a very unequal society, and becoming increasingly so by design.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:31 pm
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similar with cake & cookie shops, a few in town, 1 owned by my brothers ex mrs, and again, it baffles me who wants overpriced desserts deliver via ubereats at 9pm at night, but she’s booming and opening a 2nd shop,

No surprise there even during the WWII there were still places where people could still earn good money but they were in the minority.

We are a very unequal society, and becoming increasingly so by design.

No society is equal even in communist China. ie. there are rich communists and there are poor communists. Fact.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:33 pm
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I'm amazed there aren't more bikes knocking about - diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike's bought in lockdown?
I'm still the only person doing my route

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:41 pm
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I’m amazed there aren’t more bikes knocking about – diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike’s bought in lockdown?
I’m still the only person doing my route

Friends were posting on group chat that to fuel up a motorbike in the far east only cost around £1.50 and has a range of 180km.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:44 pm
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it baffles me where people are finding the money

Those that do have money, have plenty, those who had little enough before now have nothing

This has been the direction of travel in this country for decades, but that growth in equality has now been turbo-charged and is only set to get worse

The phrase ‘just about managing’ was a meaningless sound bite that is about to have a new resonance because those that were, won’t be for much longer

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 10:53 pm
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I’m amazed there aren’t more bikes knocking about – diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike’s bought in lockdown?
I’m still the only person doing my route

In the grand scheme of things, fuel prices haven't hugely impacted that many, those driving 50 miles a week are only really seeing a couple of quid extra.

You look at prices of other things, and it kind of makes you wonder why the whole country focuses on fuel, i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9, inflation on fuel is just a headline winner, it's everything else that's the killer.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:11 pm
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Indeed. Those being hit hardest by the current price rises can’t afford to run a car in the first place.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:19 pm
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Conversely I'm trying to give more trade to the small cafes and coffee shops in my town.

There's a certain irony in people who own businesses cutting back on their spending. It's like phone companies putting their prices up by RPI + 4% and then complaining about inflation.

Tourists seem about normal here in North Yorkshire but I was surprised how quiet Harrogate was at about 7pm last night. It seems fuel prices aren't encouraging people to walk into town, instead they're just staying at home.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:22 pm
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No society is equal even in communist China. ie. there are rich communists and there are poor communists. Fact.

China is one of the most unequal societies on the planet - and it's not communist, it's a gangster/crony capitalist autocracy. But, y'know, apart from that...

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:29 pm
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@dirtyrider - lincolnshire is, as always, miles behind the curve.
The tsunami of economic reality (and shit) will land soon.
When that happens there will be apocalyptic headlines in The Lincolnite and Lincolnshire Live.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:30 pm
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Conversely I’m trying to give more trade to the small cafes and coffee shops in my town.

I wish i could, the price of everything is just daft locally, if we go out for the day and to the cafe down the park, lunch for me and my daughter can be 15 quid easy, that's a sandwich, drink and cake each, nip down McD's like she wants and it's a fiver, you can't really compete in this climate, that extra tenner is needed.

The biggest issue i have these days is the price of fruit, it's just gone daft, and quality has gone down, i'm guessing Brexit has caused delays that means it spoils faster, or more chance of issues with quality, i just seem to be throwing out half the fruit i buy as it's not right, either through spoiling, or tasting weird, and at 2 quid a punnet, it's not easy to keep buying.

 
Posted : 18/05/2022 11:46 pm
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A good summary of the difference in effect of the present situation between those at the bottom and those at the top

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1526821401084235776?s=21&t=1KY88aA2hV2kP0HrtM-vYA

A situation this government seem quite relaxed about. But then they would be, wouldn’t they?

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:49 am
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The biggest issue i have these days is the price of fruit

Indeed, 6 apples were over £2.50 in my local Tesco yesterday, that's a hard sell when you're supposed to eat at least 5 fruit and veg a day...

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 6:50 am
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Dales (Grassington/Hawes/Ingleton/Settle) was rammed last Saturday. Don't disagree there is a storm coming for sure! But no sign of it yet, not here anyway. It was a beautiful day but not a holiday weekend.

Of course a day out in the Dales is pretty cheap anyway.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 7:01 am
 Drac
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You look at prices of other things, and it kind of makes you wonder why the whole country focuses on fuel, i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9,

And what is one biggest expenses for producing all those?

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 7:02 am
 dazh
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I disagree – where will all the staff come from to fill these vacancies? Are we happy to have less choice as a result?

You’ve completely missed my point. They have no intention of filling the vacancies. They’re going to shrink the economy to remove the vacancies so they don’t have to fill them. The Bank of England has already said as much.

This is what happened in 1981. They induced a recession and caused mass unemployment which in turn brought down inflation. They then used the opportunity to remove worker protections. Remember the slogan ‘If it’s not hurting, it’s not working’?

Yes, raising interest rates may curb inflation

No it won’t. You’ve already said this inflation is supply side. Raising interest rates will do nothing to fix that. Raising interest rates will only do one thing, which is slow down the economy. On top of the already plummeting consumer spending that’s going to crash the economy. All those vacancies will disappear in a heartbeat and we’ll go the other way with skyrocketing unemployment. Brexit labour problems will be solved, and the ground ripe for the next phase of destruction of labour protections and privatisations (the NHS). This has always been the plan, ask Binners, he knows how this works.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 7:04 am
 dazh
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I think we’re in for some serious stagflation, rather than a recession.

Stagflation is a recession! But combined with persistent inflation. Usually inflation would drop as the economy shrinks, but this is supply side so it will stay high. The double whammy of a shrinking economy and inflation will cause poverty on a scale not seen since the early 80s. The tories don’t mind, because it solves the labour problems and reduces the national debt. Eventually inflation will come down, but not before laying waste to the economy and the lives of millions. I agree with Binners, there’s going to be some serious civil unrest.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 7:28 am
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Prices in the supermarkets are going insane. My weekly shop (for two) is pretty routine, and fairly sparse when it comes to luxuries - no biscuits, booze, crisps etc, has now gone from about £75 to £90. Butter alone (and we're talking supermarket own label has gone from 90p (ish) to double that, last week the same thing cost me £1.85. Also noticed a bit of size reduction. Fage yoghurt has gone from 500g to 450 for the same price...

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 7:35 am
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I've noticed prices here in Germany have increased, so it's not an exclusively British recession.

Diesel and petrol are both still over the 2€ mark, petrol at around 2.40€, I think.

Prices in Gastro have increased by 10-20% over the last year. Friends with establishments have said footfall and takings are. Down this year on last and that's without corona rules in place.

Neighbour runs a theatre in town about 20% full is the fullest he's seen his audience this year.

There was something on the radio the other day talking about inflation hitting 8%, possibly 10%.

Lots of belt tightening needed.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 8:58 am
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I bet some governments may fall even before the Ukraine war is over

Sri Lanka and Lebanon for starters.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:02 am
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Dales (Grassington/Hawes/Ingleton/Settle) was rammed last Saturday. Don’t disagree there is a storm coming for sure! But no sign of it yet, not here anyway. It was a beautiful day but not a holiday weekend.

Of course a day out in the Dales is pretty cheap anyway.

I think a fair chunk of our visitors are those with secure retirement incomes and few outgoings, who are presently more insulated from everything except fuel price rises. I expect that to change by the end of the season, even they will have to budget.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:07 am
 kilo
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i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9,

And what is one biggest expenses for producing all those?

Fish? Don’t tell me there’s a fish shortage now????

If we’re doing tenuous anecdotes on economic slow down, apart from noticing the increase in price for fig rolls (could also be a brexit thing as they’re Irish biscuits) I put in a cheeky eBay bid on a vintage road bike a week ago, old steel colnago - the sort of thing that would have flown away a year ago and is pretty much a heart not brain purchase as a modern road bike would be far better. Absolutely no thought that I’d win it. Not one other bid on it, picking it up next week.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:09 am
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Cambridge city centre was busy last weekend with locals and visitors. Spending is hard though, I wanted a white non-slim for shirt for a wedding on Friday. I couldn’t find anything reasonable.

No problem buying shirts in slim 🙂

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:18 am
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old steel colnago

Shhh, the government will add it to the RPI basket to reduce the inflation headline figure.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:21 am
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Lots of belt tightening needed.

Indeed. And thats fine for people like us who, I imagine, largely have a bit of room to manoeuvre on that front

But after ten+ years of austerity and the 'scaling back' of the state, theres a huge amount of people who's belts are already so tight that they can already barely breath. Theres no room left for any more tightening. And these are largely people in work, not people 'sat on benefits'.

We may have the lowest ever unemployment, but a lot of those jobs don't actually provide an income that is sufficient to live on. Lots of people were already living a subsistence level existence. And that was before these price huge rises, with yet more huge increases in the pipeline

That Peston thing above explains how the real inflation rate for the poor is actually far higher as they have no discretionary spending or disposable income. All their income goes straight away on essentials, and those are all the things that have seen the highest price rises

A good summary by Jack Monroe here

https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1483778776697909252?s=20&t=4bZ9YP4U1X1dssi518s5Gw

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:22 am
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whats the coffee bean inflation rate running at? asking for a friend..

Coffeetrackworld - where are you getting your beans from? - Singletrack World Magazine

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:34 am
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Mrs K just called and asked me if I want to pick up a Pret sandwich for lunch. I said yes, get me one and give it to the nearest homeless person on the way home, I can make lunch from the fridge.

Where we can afford to, we need to think of others that needs support.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:38 am
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Where we can afford to, we need to think of others that needs support.

In my case, that means supporting my daughter. I started working in the "you're on your own now, son" days of the 1970s and never had to ask my parents for anything once I started earning but I realise that it's a lot tougher for younger folk now so I'm going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat 😜

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 9:51 am
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@binners

Saw that a few months ago, I've been saying for weeks inflation is way over 10%.

It's only lower due to the big ticket items they throw into the mix

Come winter if the energy prices don't calm down its going to be horrific.

My mates a farmer he's now not as the inflation on grain, fertiliser etc meant his end product was worth less than the ingredients,

The weird bit Is the price in the supermarket has risen but he's not seen that.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:07 am
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I realise that it’s a lot tougher for younger folk now so I’m going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat

Same here, I've had nothing from my parents from age 18 in 1978 but junior lives in a different age. My rent used to be a tiny proportion of my income, it's over half his. If he runs out living modestly and working I'm there to fill the hole.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:13 am
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If we’re doing tenuous anecdotes on economic slow down,

They were meant to be tenuous, as it was aimed at how fuel prices are the headlines every time, but in most instances it costs someone a couple of quid a week more to drive around, but a sarnie or fish supper has gone up the same amount and not many really talk about that, which is a bigger impact to the UK, as it's something folk can cut away, then those sandwich shops and chippies go under.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:21 am
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I think the real impact will be seen this autumn and winter. And it's not going to be pretty.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:22 am
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MrsF works for an online retailer (household goods, tools, garden furniture) and they've seen a noticeable down turn in sales - enough that they are cancelling orders. They did, however, have a good year or so when covid hit.

Food prices have shot up, we're really taken a hard look at our electricity consumption, and I'm cycling to the office when in - Just that saves about £7 a day. We always make some 'extra' food that then goes into the freezer for lunch.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:26 am
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I work for a luxury goods manufacturer. Sales have slowed down due to supply issues - we simply can't manufacture enough product. This is down to a lack of labour in the far east, a consequence of Covid lockdowns.

I am lucky enough to have a bit of spare cash coming in, but right now I am tightening the belt and stashing every spare penny, as the storm is coming.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 10:54 am
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The CBI, that hotbed of rabid socialists, has just issued a statement saying the government need to do something, and fast, as 'business confidence is evaporating', while needing to point out some fairly rudimentary economics

I'm sure that this lot will do what they did during covid when immediate action was required

Stable doors and horse and all that

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 11:46 am
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Sykes Cottages have just sent me a £50 off voucher if I take a break before 31st of July.

I've never known them discount in season! 🙂

Times must be hard on the Cornish Riviera.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 11:53 am
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My little anecdotal story…..I’m over in Spain, still full of British and Scottish. Travelled back out of Manchester last week, flight was rammed as was the rest of the airport.
Before coming back over here I was in North Wales for a week, was busy . Cafes seemed to be doing well. I didn’t go to the bars so not sure how they were doing of an evening.
I do think the shit show is coming, it’ll be into next spring before it really hits in my view. People will rack up debts with winter and Xmas and may struggle to make their payments from March and April.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:05 pm
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No problem buying shirts in slim 🙂

Fatist 😉

I'm big boned (and I love biscuits!)

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:11 pm
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In my case, that means supporting my daughter. I started working in the “you’re on your own now, son” days of the 1970s and never had to ask my parents for anything once I started earning but I realise that it’s a lot tougher for younger folk now so I’m going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat 😜

There was also wider 'safety net' in those days, and we weren't so dependent on our parents so much either - I signed on the day I left school for example, worked the following week and then signed back on again after 6 weeks (temp job) for the summer. Also back then folk employed youngsters as they were cheaper, now they just employ adults (part-time).

Don't earn enough for rent? No issue when I was younger, but now...

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2014/jan/10/housing-benefit-under-25-young-people-cuts

But TBH my folks looked after us, and we've looked after our kids - but then we were full on middle class (and still are), even had a dishwasher, in 1970!

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:15 pm
 dazh
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The CBI, that hotbed of rabid socialists, has just issued a statement saying the government need to do something, and fast

They're not going to do anything. This is the plan, and as far as they're concerned it's playing out exactly as it's supposed to.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:16 pm
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They’re not going to do anything. This is the plan, and as far as they’re concerned it’s playing out exactly as it’s supposed to.

Completely agree, its all going to plan.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:25 pm
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Exactly, inflation affects those with a low (or no) disposable income disproportionately.

As some people slide into low net income/ poverty situations the government is going to find out how pissed off folk become when things are taken away from them or become unaffordable.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:27 pm
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Not often that me and Daz agree, but I think you're bang on that this lot have absolutely no intention of lifting a finger to alleviate any hardship, particularly not for the poor.

I think we might be in for a re-run of full on 80's Fatcherism where a Tory government just sits back and with callous disregard just watches millions plunged into poverty

All must be sacrificed on the alter of their free market dogma. Liz Truss made that clear this morning. The government is 'fundamentally opposed' to any form of state intervention

I fear it'll ultimately provoke a similar backlash to the 'managed decline' of the 80's

This 'levelling Up' lark is going great, isn't it?

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:32 pm
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Fish? Don’t tell me there’s a fish shortage now????

Most schools have already pulled fish from the menu, lots of generic cheap white fish used to come from Russia.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:38 pm
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The government are banking (literally) on the energy market reorganising itself by the the end of Q3 (Russian energy to China, India, etc, Gulf, US and Africa to Europe) and seeing a slow decrease in energy prices in Q4, Q1 and Q2 23. They'll accept some short term pain (local election results, etc) knowing that there's naff all the opposition can really do. They'll then position themselves as having known this was a blip and having controlled it via the international diplomacy of the PM.

 
Posted : 19/05/2022 12:41 pm
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