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Thinking of starting a petition regarding getting article 50 signed asap. Hopefully, put the '2nd referendum' one to bed.
Anyone fancy spreading the word if I get one going?
So explain to me what the advantage is of triggering article 50 now?
Rushing things definitely seems like a good approach
Bizarre.
Sounds like panic
Hell surely if we can get people working on it 70 hours a week we could half the time it takes to exit.
I'd like to start a petition to have everyone draw a cock and balls on flanagaj's petition.
Anyone interested?
It basically gets the ball rolling and confirms to everyone Britain is leaving.So explain to me what the advantage is of triggering article 50 now?
Are you telling me that although the people have agreed to leave the EU that's not what's going to happen?
This limbo land period we are in will just create further uncertainty that will only depress the markets and increase the lack of confidence.
The referendum was advisory and just advises that there's a small majority of the population that have the desire to leave the EU.
Nothing in it is legally binding. It's equivalent to an opinion poll, just a very large one.
Signing article 50 will require an act of parliament, which means a lot of paper work, a vote and agreement by the Lords. All going to take a lot of time.
A vote in parliament could actually go against what the referendum says, lawfully.
And flangaj confirms it's panic
its far better to negotiate with the EU get the deal then trigger it
To trigger it now just gives us less sway over the EU which is a daft position to enter as you start negotiations
To be clear much as i personally disagree we voted to leave so we have to leave but there is nothing to be gained by doing that now as we have NO PLAN and NO DEAL with the EU
This limbo land period we are in will just create further uncertainty that will only depress the markets and increase the lack of confidence.
NO its the start of the arc of prosperity and the saving of the NHS and the end to immigration....remember all that stuff you said would happen when we left when you were calling the economic prediction worthless scaremongering....till it arrived just as night follows day.
No sod off back in your hole OP.
Has nobody listened to Jean Marc Ayrault, Steinmeiyer or any other Euro foreign ministers? Cameron isn't invited to the next Euro meeting which will be limited to 27 members who will decide what to do with the UK. Britain is effectively out, excluded, as in nobody cares what Britain wants or says because it's out, no longer an EU state. Jonathan Hill has resigned and no-one is interested what any other Brits have to say. Out.
Tragic.
Tragic
Nope, they're welcome to their failing, lumbering, behemoth, corrupt bloc of countries....we'll see how much France and Germany like making up Britain's contribution now.
Maybe the EU should've listened when the UK asked for certain reigning in of beaurocracy and cuts to spending, immigration etc.
philxx1975 - Member
Hell surely if we can get people working on it 70 hours a week we could half the time it takes to exit.
This from someone who bought their [b]PETROL[/b] car assuming it would do 55MPG only to realise 5000 miles later that they were reading he [b]diesel[/b] MPG stats when they "researched" their purchase.
I can see why you voted OUT.
Edukator - Reformed Troll
Has nobody listened to Jean Marc Ayrault, Steinmeiyer or any other Euro foreign ministers? Cameron isn't invited to the next Euro meeting which will be limited to 27 members [b]who will decide what to do with the UK[/b]Tragic.
Have you read Article 50 or Article 7?
Only the UK can trigger Article 50, the EU can do F*ck all until we do, no matter how much they moan about it.
They could use Article 7 (serious breaches of conduct by an EU member) but that would be like using an A-bomb as a police action.
UK Law has no precedent for what to do after the referendum. They don't yet know whether parliament has to vote before article 50 can be enacted. If parliament does and if those who disagree with the result have the balls to stand by what they [b]KNOW[/b] is best for the country....well, I think we'd see a single issue General Election take shape.
OP I am in favour of triggering as soon as possible not least so as there is no attempt to ignore the Referendum result. However I do appreciate that it makes sense to allow a leadership contest and a team to be built. IMO we should absolutely not allow the negotiation to dictate the Article 50 timing, with us contributing £10bn nett pa and our contributions likely to rise the EU have no incentive to negotaite promptly unless they are under the clock of an Atricle 50. Think if we take 2 years to negotaite an agreement and then trigger article 50 thats 4 more years of membership and £50bn (?) of nett contributions to the EU budget. France and Germany have General Elections in 2017 and they will be keen to be seen to be negotiating in good faith as the UK is such an important market for both of them.
As for the petiton I think these are a bit of a waste of time, better off writing to your MP
@Edukator - you clearly haven't been listening at all to what's actually happening.
Cameron will address the ofher 27 countries. Then they will have a meeting to decide how to respond to the UK leaving the EU.
It would make absolutely zero sense for the UK to attend a meeting which is being held to discuss how to respond to us leaving.
Flanagaj and Jamba are worrying that MPs might see sense
Even UKIP, never mind the other pro-quit leaders, are saying don't trigger it yet.
3 months is a long time in politics.
France and Germany have General Elections in 2017 and they will be keen to be seen to be negotiating in good faith as the UK is such an important market for both of them.
I asked if people had listened to Ayrault or Steinmeiyer, you clearly haven't. Euro zone politicians want this done and dusted. They want HSBC to move those jobs to Paris, Nissan and other manufacturers to move production ASAP. They have to make up for the lack of a UK contribution and the best way to do that is make it more attractive for companies to be based in Europe and pay their taxes there than in London. Dubliners must be rubbing their hands with glee as the last English-speaking low-tax capital in Europe.
However so long as we get free movement and a single market in the deal it won't be too bad.
[quote=Edukator ]I asked if people had listened to Ayrault or Steinmeiyer, you clearly haven't. Euro zone politicians want this done and dusted.
Well I have, but you seem to have ignored what is written above. Invoking article 50 is solely a decision for the UK - they can make as much hot air as they like about what they think we should do, but that's all it is, hot air. I'm not quite sure what bargaining chips they have to persuade us to invoke it immediately - are they going to threaten us with worse terms on which to leave?
I suspect the subtext of the EU's "invoke A50 now" is "we're not going to discuss the terms until you actually invoke", which is fair enough and basically what A50 says.
I was led to believe edukator was the loud mouthed angry little troll on the forum, you have been voted out mate.
This from someone who bought their PETROL car [u]after being told by the main dealer[/u] it would do 55MPG only to realise 5000 miles later that they were reading he diesel MPG stats when they "researched" their purchase.
Fixed it for you angry man.
I was replying to Jamba, Aracer.
The 27 will act in the best interests of the 27. I very much doubt that will be in the best interests of the UK because they know that the UK government will do everything in it's power to make itself more competitive than Europe and need to protect EU st(ates from that unfair competition.
[quote=Edukator ]I was replying to Jamba, Aracer.
Am I allowed to comment? (I'm going to anyway, you can just ignore me if it's against the rules)
The 27 will act in the best interests of the 27. I very much doubt that will be in the best interests of the UK because they know that the UK government will do everything in it's power to make itself more competitive than Europe and need to protect EU st(ates from that unfair competition.
Of course they will, but it won't be in the worst interests of the UK either because they do still want to trade with us. They are also limited by what the rules/laws/treaties say they can do - not only in terms of kicking us out, but also in terms of what they can do to make themselves competitive relative to us.
[quote=philxx1975 ]I was led to believe edukator was the loud mouthed angry little troll on the forum
He's reformed - haven't you read his tag? Which means there's a vacancy going...
so long as we get free movement and a single market in the deal it won't be too bad
we only get that if we dont leave, harmonise and pay up
We just voted against all that shit
I am in favour of triggering as soon as possible
All it does is make your position weaker so why would anyone want to do this
At the point we do this the EU has us over a barrel on negotiations and we no longer sit at the top table
Whilst we remain and they want it done quickly we hold some chips to get the deal we want then we trigger it
they cannot make us leave and we can now be really shitty to them by just vetoing everything an being very very arsey indeed
All this we lose if we article 50 it makes no sense at all to do this now. We do it once the deal is signed and not before
Think if we take 2 years to negotiate an agreement and then trigger article 50 thats 4 more years of membership
NO once we trigger article 50 we will leave after 2 years even if there is NO DEAL its the maximum amount of time allowed there is no minimum time; we could leave that day if everyone signs it off
even in victory you still cannot get facts right....no matter the change some things stay the same 😉
[quote=Junkyard ]they cannot make us leave and we can now be really shitty to them by just vetoing everything an being very very arsey indeed
Except if we're too arsey about it they could invoke article 7. It's a bit of a nuclear bomb so they probably won't but the threat would probably be enough to keep us vaguely in line.
Otherwise I broadly agree.
*spells it out*
I was replying to Jamba, Aracer, who clearly hadn't listened to Ayrault or Steinmeiyer but I forgot to type ", Jamba". I didn't mean to suggest that anyone else hadn't listened to what Euro foreign ministers were saying.
I really don't think it is possible to have totally free trade with the UK once the UK is out because Euro zone governments would lose elections if they agreed to it. Everyone I know is expecting the UK to indulge in social dumping and unfair practices and want their government to protect them from it. (many people in France are already resentful of Dublin, Luxembourg and London getting into bed with big multi-nationals to avoid paying tax on money made in France).
NO once we trigger article 50 we will leave after 2 years even if there is NO DEAL
Yep this : it's written into European law so 2 years after article 50 is implemented the door shuts whether or not we get what we want
philxx1975 - Member[u]after being [b]told[/b] by the main dealer it would do 55MPG[/u]
Fixed it for you angry man.
So, you act solely upon what you're told, huh? [b]THIS[/b] is [i]too[/i] perfect.
Me? Angry? About having my future and that of my country decided for by people who didn't get beyond the abstract, you're damn right I'm angry!
My company recently opened a Dublin 'head office' precisely for this eventuality. We won't be the only ones moving to Ireland, Luxembourg etc. I have no idea what will replace those firms. Maybe we could reopen the mines in the north and Wales and Cornwall.
I had no knowledge of article 7 but that cannot remove us from the Eu it can only stop us voting.
As so they can be arsey back
I do agree with educator no way are we getting access to the free market without paying what we do now and doing everything that we do now
This idea we will get a better deal is frankly nuts.
I really don't think it is possible to have totally free trade with the UK once the UK is out because Euro zone governments would lose elections if they agreed to it
and , to discourage others, they want us to go tits up
Look greece dont leave look what happened to the Uk and they were in a better position than you etc
the leave campaign in any state wont be able to say its just fear as it actually did happen unlike here where they were able to convince enough of our well informed citizens to ignore all the experts and that we would somehow flourish.
Its going to be interesting times
Foolish to trigger it now
Just think of the ****ing damage we could do to the EU by inviting other countries like Sweden and the Netherlands to hold their own referendum and come join us at the bargaining table.
Met my BIL today who is a successful City Insurance MD. he was devastated, saying how so many jobs would go as a result of companies moving to Ireland and Frankfurt. He'll be fine, he was talking about thousands of others.
Yep get it started and ill sign and probably millions of others as well and the losers will lose again 🙂
[i]2 years after article 50 is implemented the door shuts whether or not we get what we want [/i]
+1
But then no doubt its the same set of fools that want it issued and the same set of fools who voted Leave (and now want to really f*** us over).
Me? Angry? About having my future and that of my country decided for by people who didn't get beyond the abstract, you're damn right I'm angry!
Well go and take it out on someone else and calm down dear.
I think with this thread flanagaj is in danger of confirming all those condescending prejudices us innies had about outies
(stumpyM4 added to list of people who don't understand what they've just voted for)
[quote=stumpy_m4 ]Yep get it started and ill sign and probably millions of others as well and the losers will lose again
You've not worked out who the losers are yet, have you?
Though I'm loving the irony of you all wanting to do exactly what the EU leaders are telling us to do, rather than what those defending the interests of the UK are defying them by doing.
It may be that no-one has to sign anything. Article 50 simply refers to a nation notifying that they intend to leave, nothing about it being formally in writing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36631518
Yep this : it's written into European law so 2 years after article 50 is implemented the door shuts whether or not we get what we want
that goes both ways though - given the amount the EU /inports/exports to the UK and back, they won't want to be paying import/export tax on goods.
5 % of their trade 50 % of ours- its this sort of sloppy flawed thinking that has lead out voters to think we will do ok when we leave.
Reality is about to slap you and us very hard in the face - well not me i knwo what to expect but you
No one in europe gets free access to the market without
1) bing in the EU
2) being in the EEAA - which means complying with all laws, harmonising and paying - essentially its being in the Eu without being able to vote. I assume this is unacceptable to all sides as its just worse than what we have now.
They dont want us to leave but they are not going to let us leave, stop paying, not obey the rules and STILL have access to THEIR market.
Cameron really has played a blinder, Johnson* is fuct, maybe he will step up and handle the task ahead of him, maybe
What worries me is that Im not even sure 2 years is enough time to disentangle 43 years of shared, laws, trade, regulations, its going to take an army of lawyers, probably a whole new department of the civil service and suck up a huge amount of the governments attention,
ultimately will our settlement have to be voted through by parliament?
*(or May or shudder-Gove or wretch-Fox)
yup JY the EEA Norway model is the ultimate example of an EU democracy deficit, it'd be funny if it wasnt such a mess, actually it is very funny !!!
as i said before , the difference with norway is that they can afford it and they share their wealth with their citizens .
we can afford it and the market is so beneficial even UKIP dont want to give it up
BOJO wont be PM to many Tries hate him it will be someone who no one really loves or hates - I don't know who this generation of tories John Major is but they get the crown
Who ever gets it is in deep trouble though as the dreams of millions of olk - I mean the leave voters who were swayed- are about to be shattered by a very harsh reality and they are not going to be popular.
They also need to be a country unity figure as I assume the tories will try to drag senior labour figures into the fold - I fear that Blair may appear in this role!!! IMagine Tiny Blair as our emissary to Europe !
Leave or Remain, this is worth a read [url= http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/ ]http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/[/url]
Note it was written before the referendum vote.
Essentially the referendum result is the first step on a long road that [b]may[/b] end in Brexit....
Edit: it may explain why the financial markets and Sterling didn't completely tank. The day Article 50 is invoked may be far worse
Sounds like we have many years of uncertainty ahead of us. I hope at least someone knows what they're doing - cos I haven't a clue 🙂
[quote=Junkyard ]Who ever gets it is in deep trouble though
The Tory Nick Clegg - or indeed the next William Hague (I have to admit I thought "winning" the 2010 election was a poisoned chalice, and I'm not sure this denouement can be claimed as justifying that, so my judgement on this isn't perfect!)
I fear that Blair may appear in this role!!! IMagine Tiny Blair as our emissary to Europe !
I was thinking it couldn't get worse 😯 Though maybe what we need is Brown to provide us with 5 tests to be met before leaving the EU - we're definitely leaving just as soon as we meet those.
[quote=dmorts ]Leave or Remain, this is worth a read ...
Essentially the referendum is the first step on a long road that may end in Brexit....
Not the only one - this was also written before the vote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/there-is-an-incredible-theory-that-a-brexit-wont-actually-happen-even-if-the-public-votes-for-it-a7093381.html
...for which the original sauce appears to be:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-interview-peter-catterall-on-eu-brexit-2016-6
Dubliners must be rubbing their hands with glee as the last English-speaking low-tax capital in Europe.
Yep, Dublin and possibly Edinburgh will be the new capitals of US investment in Europe
aultimately will our settlement have to be voted through by parliament?
Nope there is option 3, no agreement so revert to wto deals for everything. The EU has to agree the deal too, if they don't we get nothing.
poah - Member
Yep this : it's written into European law so 2 years after article 50 is implemented the door shuts whether or not we get what we want
that goes both ways though - given the amount the EU /inports/exports to the UK and back, they won't want to be paying import/export tax on goods.
You really did get the smoke blown up there, we have less to bargain with. Striding into negotiations to leave thinking you hold all the cards is madness
and the losers will lose again
By far the biggest losers are those yet to comprehend that they are indeed losers.
So, that's basically anyone living in this bizarre fantasy land where St George will roar and we have the EU and the rest of the world over a barrel. Oh, and also those expecting immigration to reduce, living standards to increase, and new hospitals to pop up every week - it seems those three promises have already been reneged upon.
The more I read about this, the more I understand why DC is calling it a day and why, before the vote, "50 MP's signed a letter to say they would not challenge him as PM"
No one wants the job. It's a thankless exercise.
And he hopes he's not seen as the one who took the UK out of the EU.
Except he is. He promised the referendum in the first place and he only promised it in an attempt to win the general election.
The problem with article 50, is that it was put in to the Lisbon Treaty as a token gesture. There are no rules or guides on how to leave the EU as no one thought anyone would be stupid enough to leave in the first place.
We are politically integrated in to the EU in such a way, that it would take more than a life time to unpick all the laws, directives etc. And the cost of it would be monumental, employing vast teams of experts to do all this. So we are going to get a situation where it is simply easier to keep most of the EU directives anyway.
Taking back control is a fallacy, in the long term it is going to mean we actually have less control.
Its going to be interesting times
+1. Fascinating stuff. It's a shame about the nasty stuff being by many but I suppose it follows the tone of the entire campaign.
Who will be the next tory party leader? Will Corbyn survive? If not, Benn or Jarvis? Jarvis is a man I could vote for I think.
He gave the people the chance to vote and they voted. Apparently 51% of the voting population believe (for reasons other people may or may not agree with) that the country would be better off out of the EU. I can't believe that the 51% is made up entirely of fools (or racists or selfish people etc) so many millions of people clearly have a vision of a successful future for Britain outside of the EU?
Of course if the majority of the 51% IS made up of fools, racists and selfish people then we have bigger problems on our plate than whether to be in the EU or not.
It wasn't 100% turnout
37%He gave the people the chance to vote and they voted. Apparently 51% of the voting population believe
I can't believe that the 51% is made up entirely of fools (or racists or selfish people etc) so many millions of people clearly have a vision of a successful future for Britain outside of the EU
37%
Of course if the majority of the 51% IS made up of fools, racists and selfish people then we have bigger problems on our plate than whether to be in the EU or not.
Don't know if you feel better about that or not. 28% couldn't give a ****.
And this is why such a close result is decisive. If it went remain UKIP could keep bitching away in the corner and we could carry on. This being a 1 way door is the problem
Where did I get the 51 percent from? I thought I saw that number on the news.
By far the biggest losers are those yet to comprehend that they are indeed losers
Indeed a lot of left wing working class types just voted for some very right Tories and some folk so right wing they cannot join the tories on a "manifesto" to cut red tape and make us more competitive [ we all know this means shit on the workers and pay them less/have less rights] as a panacea that will end the "unelected remote elite" governing us
Its beyond parody.
They also probably split the UK in the process as I doubt scotland will be staying
51.8 (I think) result or a 72% turnout
I'm loving the Merkel is one of the few not losing her head over this and promoting calm http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36630326
Ah ok. so 51.8% of "the people to whom the vote meant enough for them to express a preference" (as the ladies shampoo adverts say) preferred to leave the EU.
So, of those people, surely they can't possibly all be fools . . . Etc?
I believe (and I might be wrong here) that once article 50 is invoked we have [u]up to[/u] two Years to negotiate our exit, any extension would need approval by all the other member states (not too likely).
the rumblings are that the EU leaders would like to beat that two year timescale and get shot of us sooner if possible, can't blame them really can you...
The main reason the UK should want to drag our feet now is because no bugger actually had a plan for this next part, far from uniting the country it has widened our divisions and both of the country's major parties are destabilising, our prime minister is off in three months and his successor will have to negotiate our exit, most of those currently in the running backed the out campaign but are any of them really a safe pair of hands?
We need time, pushing up the deadlines isn't going to help a thing...
Still at least we have "Taken back control" eh?
Given by the theme of
"what it's not all true"
"oh you never said it would be painful "
" I only ticked leave as a protest I didn't think it mattered"
Enough to make a difference are
@dmorts yes absolutely it was an advisory referendum, its not legally binding. That is one very important area where the Scottish Referendum differed, had that been 50.0001% Out vs 49.9999% In it would still have lead to an independent Scotland.
I and pthers asked Chris Grayling what guarantees we could have that the result would be respected. His reply was based on the integrety of governement and how such a move would split the Tories and thus be "unthinkable" I am more of a cynic and think its very possible
I dont think parliament will disrespect this result[ as half your potential voters now hate you]- some may well try- I guess they could if it was unanimous across all parties but that is not happening.
However they might make there be another vote based on
1) what leave manage to negotiate - this will look **** all like what they claimed they would get
2) the economy will have tanked - unlike what they said would happen and those experts may have had a point and polemic optimist will have been found to be an empty hope.
3) they will have realised save the NHS , red tape, Ed immigration was all a load of empty Bollocks
I am not sure it will really help as we just swap sides to whoever is bitter and we run the claim of having vites till we get the result we want
Unless enough leave voters start vocalising that they feel conned the result has to be respected.
A vote was held a result was given it has to be adhered and we have to look at how to unite a country that is divided on basically every line imaginable, education, wealth, age,class, geography, divided parties etc. We need to sort the mess out rather to squabble for the next two years.
I have largely stayed out of STW "debates", the one thing that wont happen here is consensus
Interesting to see the Lib Dems come straight out and say they will reverse the referendum result. Alas, they have zero chance of ever getting in to power.
Interesting to see the Lib Dems come straight out and say they will reverse the referendum result. Alas, they have zero chance of ever getting in to power.
I was going to post - If only there was a party completely untainted by the whole thing.... mostly by all having booked their summer holidays early and not wanting to miss out.
I dont think parliament will...as half your potential voters now hate you...
On the other hand, the Remain half might hate you for respecting it when legally and technically you could have ignored it and, in their eyes, saved the situation. Rock and a hard place perhaps?
mikewsmith >> Your really did get the smoke blown up there, we have less to bargain with. Striding into negotiations to leave thinking you hold all the cards is madness
I disagree, we have quite a large card to play. The other EU members want Article 50 invoked ASAP to give stability, but it's up to the UK when this is done. Delaying the invocation may twist a few arms. This will have to be balanced with there also being unstability in the UK.
Before the referendum, Michael Gove said it would be at least 2 years before Article 50 was invoked.
Remind me what power the UK has? It can piss off the people who have to sign off on the divorce? It can shaft itself on trade? The EU knows that the pro leave MP's will have to take some stuff they don't like back. The EU can live with a grumpy UK, can the UK live with a resolute EU looking after itself? Read Danny's points on how long it takes to sort tread deals out 10+ years.
Before the referendum, Michael Gove said it would be at least 2 years before Article 50 was invoked.
So 2 years before we discuss what will happen, then 2 to do the negotiations = 4 years of uncertainty in the UK, how much investment will their be in that time? how much EU grant money coming out way (while still paying out full memebership)
jambalaya >> @dmorts yes absolutely it was an advisory referendum, its not legally binding. That is one very important area where the Scottish Referendum differed, had that been 50.0001% Out vs 49.9999% In it would still have lead to an independent Scotland.
Also remember the SNPs white paper on an independent Scotland? Quite a large document. Why has there not been similar from Leave?
Because no one knows what Leave would be.
The UK has nothing to negotiate with. The UK had power in the EU. It was until last week effectively one third of the EU (the other two being Germany and France). As a soveireign nation in the EU we made the rules. Now we're moving rapidly away from the tent. Hell soon we won't even be close enough for the proverbially leak, merely waving our willy like a perverted old drunk while the rest of the world crosses the road in shame and embarrassment!
mikewsmith >> Remind me what power the UK has? It can piss off the people who have to sign off on the divorce?
So what, it's not like they won't sign because they're pissed off
mikewsmith >> So 2 years before we discuss what will happen
No, not at all. Discussions with the 2yr clock ticking will not be favourable to the UK. We may see some discussions and a 2nd referendum on the outcome of those yet